Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and analyzes their fundamentals and market news [2][5]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate upwards, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10]. - **Silver**: Expected to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Market is cautious, and prices will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][11]. - **Zinc**: Under pressure, with a trend strength of -1 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Downside may be limited, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18]. - **Tin**: Prices are weakening, with a trend strength of -1 [2][23]. - **Aluminum**: Facing upward pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina: Attention should be paid to the impact of the ore end, with a trend strength of -1; Cast aluminum alloy: Will oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: News affects sentiment, and fundamentals are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel: Reality and macro factors are in a game, and steel prices will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][31]. Energy - **Crude Oil - Related**: - **Fuel oil**: Weakly oscillating at night, may temporarily stabilize in the short - term [5]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: Temporarily weak, with a slight decline in the high - low sulfur spread of the outer - market spot [5]. - **LPG**: Cost support is effective, may rebound in the short - term [5]. - **Coal - Related**: - **Coking coal**: Will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52]. - **Coke**: Will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52]. - **Steam coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and prices will oscillate and stabilize, with a trend strength of 0 [54][57]. Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, pay attention to substantial changes in supply, with a trend strength of 1 [32][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is fermenting, pay attention to upward space, with a trend strength of 1 [36][38]. - **Polysilicon**: Market news continues to ferment, with a trend strength of 1 [36][38]. - **PTA**: In the off - season of demand, with a weak unilateral trend [2]. - **MEG**: Low inventory, positive spread arbitrage on dips [2]. - **Styrene**: Spot liquidity is released, weakly oscillating [2]. - **Soda Ash**: Little change in the spot market [5]. - **PVC**: Weakly oscillating [5]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Doubts about production recovery in the origin, waiting for the evolution of contradictions [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of driving force due to insufficient weather speculation on US soybeans [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Export expectations improve, US soybeans rise, and domestic soybean meal rebounds [5]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot [5]. - **Sugar**: Waiting for guidance from super - expected information [5]. - **Cotton**: Futures prices hit a new high this year [5]. - **Eggs**: The expectation of a rebound in the peak season is fulfilled, and the sentiment of culling declines [5]. - **Pigs**: Sentiment has changed [5]. - **Peanuts**: There is support below [5]. Others - **Shipping**: For the container shipping index (European line), hold 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads lightly [5]. - **Logs**: Oscillate repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [58][61].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market are still uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the current fundamentals are still in a tight - balance. The overall crude oil is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. - For methanol, the domestic market is likely to show a pattern of both supply and demand weakening. After the sentiment cools down, it is expected that the price will not have a large - scale unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - Regarding urea, the domestic supply - demand situation is acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside space is also restricted by high supply. The current valuation is neutral to low, and it is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [6]. - For rubber, NR and RU have risen and then fluctuated slightly stronger, but considering that the leading varieties in the black market have started to fluctuate, NR and RU still need to guard against the risk of correction. In the second half of the year, it is prone to rise and difficult to fall. Adopt a long - term bullish mindset, build positions opportunistically, and use a neutral - to - bullish or neutral approach in the short - term, taking short - long positions on dips and making quick trades. Also, pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [9][12]. - For PVC, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the main logic of the market is the transition from de - stocking to inventory accumulation. Although it has strengthened recently driven by the rebound in the black building materials sector, it will still be under pressure due to the weak fundamental expectations [14]. - For styrene, the short - term geopolitical influence has subsided, and the BZN is expected to recover. It is expected that the styrene price will fluctuate following the cost side [18]. - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction. In July, there are no new capacity investment plans, and the price is expected to remain volatile [20]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand in the off - season, it is expected that the price will be bearish in July [21]. - For PX, the maintenance season is over, and the load remains high. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue de - stocking. The current valuation is at a neutral level, and it is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the trend of crude oil [23]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to continue to accumulate inventory in July, and the processing fee is under pressure. The demand side is also under continuous pressure. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [25]. - For ethylene glycol, the expected inventory reduction at ports will gradually slow down. The valuation is relatively high compared to the same period in history, and the fundamentals are weak. However, due to unexpected shutdowns of Saudi Arabian plants and more - than - expected production cuts of domestic plants, it is expected to be strong in the short - term [26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - On July 17, 2025, the INE main crude oil futures were reported at 517.4 yuan. According to the US EIA weekly data, the US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3.86 million barrels to 422.16 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.91%; the SPR increased by 0.30 million barrels to 402.70 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.07%; gasoline inventory increased by 3.40 million barrels to 232.87 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 1.48%; diesel inventory increased by 4.17 million barrels to 106.97 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 4.06%; fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.70 million barrels to 20.14 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 7.77%; aviation kerosene inventory increased by 0.57 million barrels to 44.81 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 1.28% [1]. - In terms of market prices, the WTI main crude oil futures fell 0.11 dollars, a decline of 0.16%, to 66.64 dollars; the Brent main crude oil futures fell 0.15 dollars, a decline of 0.22%, to 68.71 dollars; the INE main crude oil futures fell 0.80 yuan, a decline of 0.15% [7]. Methanol - On July 16, the 09 contract fell 19 yuan/ton to 2367 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 3 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 15. Upstream maintenance has increased, and the operating rate has declined from a high level. Enterprises still have good profits. Overseas plants' operating rates have returned to medium - high levels, and the market has gradually digested the impact on the overseas supply side. Market fluctuations have begun to narrow. On the demand side, the olefin plants at ports have reduced their loads, and it is the off - season for traditional demand, with the operating rate declining. After the recent decline in methanol prices, the downstream profits have recovered slightly, but the overall level is still low, and the spot valuation of methanol is still high. In the off - season, the upside space is expected to be limited [4]. Urea - On July 16, the 09 contract rose 2 yuan/ton to 1733 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 47. The domestic operating rate has increased slightly, with a daily output of 19.9 tons. The overall corporate profit is at a medium - low level, and the cost support is expected to gradually strengthen. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has bottomed out and rebounded. With the start of autumn fertilizer preparation, the operating rate will further increase, which will support the demand for urea. The export container loading is still ongoing, and the port inventory continues to rise. The subsequent demand is mainly concentrated in compound fertilizers and exports [6]. Rubber - NR and RU have risen and then fluctuated slightly stronger. However, considering that the leading varieties in the black market have started to fluctuate, NR and RU still need to guard against the risk of correction. As of July 10, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 64.54%, 0.81 percentage points higher than last week and 5.59 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 72.55%, 2.51 percentage points higher than last week and 6.36 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of June 29, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 129.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7 tons, an increase of 0.6%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 78.9 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber in China was 50.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%. As of July 13, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 50.75 (+ 0.23) tons. In terms of spot prices, the Thai standard mixed rubber was 14120 (- 50) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1730 (- 5) dollars, and STR20 mixed was 1735 (- 5) dollars. The butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 9300 (- 50) yuan, and the cis - polybutadiene in North China was 11300 (- 100) yuan [9][10][11][12]. PVC - On July 17, 2025, the PVC09 contract fell 41 yuan to 4934 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4840 (- 10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 94 (+ 31) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 115 (- 2) yuan/ton. On the cost side, the calcium carbide price in Wuhai was reported at 2250 (0) yuan/ton, the medium - grade semi - coke price was 585 (0) yuan/ton, and the ethylene price was 820 (0) dollars/ton. The cost side remained unchanged, and the caustic soda spot price was 840 (0) yuan/ton. This week, the overall operating rate of PVC was 77%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%; among them, the calcium carbide method was 79.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6%; the ethylene method was 71%, a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. On the demand side, the overall downstream operating rate was 41.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.8%. The in - plant inventory was 38.2 tons (- 0.5), and the social inventory was 62.4 tons (+ 3.2) [14]. Styrene - The spot price has decreased, and the futures price has increased, with the basis weakening. Currently, the BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with a large upward correction space. On the cost side, the operating rate of pure benzene has increased, and the supply is relatively abundant. On the supply side, the profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has decreased, but the operating rate of styrene has continued to rise. The port inventory of styrene has increased. It is the off - season, and the overall operating rate of the three S products on the demand side has declined. In the short - term, the geopolitical influence has subsided, the BZN is expected to recover, and the styrene price is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [17][18]. Polyethylene - The futures price has decreased. The US has released tariff policies against multiple countries, and the uncertainty of global trade policies has returned. The spot price of polyethylene has remained unchanged, and the downward space for PE valuation is limited. The inventory of traders has fluctuated at a high level, and the support for prices has weakened. It is the off - season, the orders for agricultural films on the demand side have fluctuated at a low level, and the overall operating rate has declined. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction. In July, there are no new capacity investment plans, and the polyethylene price is expected to remain volatile [20]. Polypropylene - The futures price has decreased. The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually increase, with the marginal supply of propylene returning. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate has declined seasonally. In the off - season, under the background of weak supply and demand, the price of polypropylene in July is expected to be bearish [21]. PX - On July 17, 2025, the PX09 contract rose 28 yuan to 6716 yuan, the PX CFR fell 4 dollars to 834 dollars, the basis was 160 (- 58) yuan according to the RMB central parity rate, and the 9 - 1 spread was 98 (+ 16) yuan. In terms of PX load, the Chinese load was 81.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%; the Asian load was 73.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. In terms of plants, there were not many changes in domestic plants. A 21 - ton plant of Idemitsu in Japan was shut down, the plant in Vietnam resumed operation, and the plant in Thailand was under maintenance. The PTA load was 79.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. In terms of plants, the production of Yisheng Dalian and Yisheng Hainan increased, and a plant in Taiwan, China restarted. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 11.7 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of July, a year - on - year increase of 2.2 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of May was 434.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.5 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, the PXN was 254 dollars (- 1), and the naphtha cracking spread was 79 dollars (- 11). Currently, the PX maintenance season is over, and the load remains high. In the short - term, the valuation has been compressed after the Asian supply has returned and the polyester load has entered the off - season. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue de - stocking. The current valuation is at a neutral level, and it is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the trend of crude oil [23][24]. PTA - On July 17, 2025, the PTA09 contract rose 10 yuan to 4706 yuan, the spot price in East China rose 5 yuan to 4720 yuan, the basis was 11 (+ 2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 50 (+ 10) yuan. The PTA load was 79.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. In terms of plants, the production of Yisheng Dalian and Yisheng Hainan increased, and a plant in Taiwan, China restarted. The downstream load was 88.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. In terms of plants, a 60 - ton filament plant of Hengteng restarted, a 60 - ton bottle - chip plant of Wankai was under maintenance, and a 25 - ton chip plant of Guxian Dao was under maintenance. The terminal texturing load decreased by 7% to 62%, and the loom load decreased by 4% to 58%. As of July 11, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 217.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.8 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, the spot processing fee of PTA increased by 25 yuan to 210 yuan, and the processing fee on the futures market decreased by 8 yuan to 300 yuan. In the future, on the supply side, the maintenance volume in July is small, and there are new plants being commissioned, with continuous inventory accumulation expected, and the PTA processing fee is under pressure. On the demand side, the inventory pressure of polyester fibers has increased, and the production of bottle - chips has been reduced. Overall, the demand side is under continuous pressure. In terms of valuation, the PXN is expected to be supported under the expectation of improved patterns brought by PTA commissioning. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [25]. Ethylene Glycol - On July 17, 2025, the EG09 contract rose 29 yuan to 4351 yuan, the spot price in East China fell 8 yuan to 4400 yuan, the basis was 70 (+ 2), and the 9 - 1 spread was 2 (+ 16) yuan. On the supply side, the operating rate of ethylene glycol was 68.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. Among them, the operating rate of syngas - based production was 73.1%, a month - on - month increase of 3.8%; the operating rate of ethylene - based production was 64.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%. In terms of syngas - based plants, Hongsifang and Tianying restarted; in terms of oil - chemical plants, Zhejiang Petrochemical reduced its load; overseas, the Sharq plant in the Jubail area of Saudi Arabia shut down and reduced its load again due to power problems. The downstream load was 88.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. In terms of plants, a 60 - ton filament plant of Hengteng restarted, a 60 - ton bottle - chip plant of Wankai was under maintenance, and a 25 - ton chip plant of Guxian Dao was under maintenance. The terminal texturing load decreased by 7% to 62%, and the loom load decreased by 4% to 58%. The forecast of imported arrivals at ports was 4.5 tons, and the departure from East China ports on July 15 was 0.9 tons, with a decrease in outgoing inventory. The port inventory was 55.3 tons, a decrease of 2.7 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, the profit of naphtha - based production was - 485 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 640 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 938 yuan. The cost of ethylene remained unchanged at 820 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines increased to 530 yuan. In terms of industrial fundamentals

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various chemical products, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on these factors [2][3][4] Summary by Product Methanol - The main contract of methanol fluctuates narrowly within the range. Import arrivals have increased significantly, and port inventories have accumulated rapidly. Some domestic enterprises may postpone autumn maintenance due to good profits. The domestic supply supports the market, and attention should be paid to macro and downstream device changes [2] Urea - The urea futures market is oscillating strongly. Supply remains sufficient, and agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season. Upstream inventories are shifting to downstream and ports. The market is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations with the possible release of a new export quota [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures closed down slightly, showing a weak trend. For polyethylene, the reduction of device maintenance increases pressure, and downstream demand is weak. For polypropylene, high - level device maintenance provides some support, but weak demand still suppresses the market [4] Pure Benzene - Crude oil is oscillating. The spot price of pure benzene in East China has slightly declined, while the forward price has risen slightly. There is still supply pressure, with a seasonal improvement expected in the mid - to - late third quarter and pressure in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to operate on the monthly spread and short at high prices based on the long - term bearish view of oil prices [6] Styrene - Styrene futures are weakly sorted. The开工 load is at a high level, and port inventories are accumulating. Market supply is sufficient, while downstream demand is mainly based on digesting existing raw materials, and spot trading is poor [7] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuate narrowly. PX supply - demand has improved, but weak PTA demand drags it down. PTA has an upward repair drive due to low processing margins. For ethylene glycol, short - term long - position allocation is recommended if large domestic devices implement maintenance. Short fiber shows some demand resilience and can be treated bullishly, while bottle chip orders are weakening [8] Chlor - alkali - PVC is running weakly. New device production increases supply, and downstream demand is weak, with inventory accumulation. Caustic soda is under pressure at a high level, with poor high - price sales and general non - aluminum downstream demand [9] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass fluctuates narrowly. Industry profits have slightly increased, but processing orders are weak. Soda ash is oscillating weakly, with inventory accumulation and high - level production. The photovoltaic industry's planned production cuts may affect the market [10]

能源化工日报 2025-07-16 原油 能源化工组 行情方面：WTI 主力原油期货收跌 0.08 美元，跌幅 0.12%，报 66.75 美元；布伦特主力原油期 货收跌 0.28 美元，跌幅 0.40%，报 68.86 美元；INE 主力原油期货收跌 9.30 元，跌幅 1.76%， 报 518.2 元。 数据方面：富查伊拉港口油品周度数据出炉， 汽油库存累库 0.18 百万桶至 8.29 百万桶，环 比累库 2.23%；柴油库存累库 0.30 百万桶至 2.41 百万桶，环比累库 14.07%；燃料油库存累库 0.72 百万桶至 10.50 百万桶，环比累库 7.35%；总成品油累库 1.20 百万桶至 21.19 百万桶， 环比累库 5.99%。 我们认为当前地缘风险仍有不确定性，虽然 OPEC 略超预期增产，但我们认为当前基本面仍处 于紧平衡，整体原油处于强现实与弱预期的多空博弈当中，建议投资者把握风控，观望处理。 甲醇 2025/07/16 甲醇 7 月 15 日 09 合跌 10 元/吨，报 2386 元/吨，现货涨 5 元/吨，基差-1。上游检修增多，开工高 位回落，企业利润依旧较好，海外装置开 ...

Group 1: Polyolefin Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints PP and PE both show a supply contraction trend, with compressed weighted profits. Methanol and monomers are weak, and marginal profits are recovering. Static supply and demand are both decreasing, inventory is accumulating, and apparent demand is weakening. Dynamically, the supply pressure in July is not significant, and the overall pressure still exists, but inventory reduction has improved in July. For unilateral strategies, both PP and PE lack strong drivers, and range - bound operations are recommended. For arbitrage, LP can be taken profit at around 250 [2]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601, PP2601 prices increased slightly, while L2509, PP2509 prices decreased slightly. The spreads between different contracts and the basis of some varieties also changed. For example, the spread of L2509 - 2601 decreased by 130.77%, and the spread of PP2509 - 2601 decreased by 100% [2]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP inventories are accumulating. The PE device operating rate decreased by 2.10%, and the PP device operating rate decreased by 1.1%. The downstream weighted operating rates of both also decreased slightly [2]. Group 2: Crude Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints Crude oil futures prices are under pressure, mainly due to the game between geopolitical sanctions expectations and macro - demand concerns. The market focus has shifted from geopolitical supply disturbances to the actual impact of trade policies on demand. In the short term, oil prices are still dominated by macro uncertainties. It is recommended to adopt short - term band strategies, and capture opportunities for increased volatility on the options side [6]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent, WTI, and SC futures prices decreased. The spreads between different contracts and different varieties also changed. For example, Brent - WTI increased by 0.90%, and SC - Brent increased by 24.50% [6]. - **Product Oil Prices and Spreads**: Most product oil prices decreased, and the cracking spreads of some product oils also changed. For example, the US gasoline cracking spread decreased by 0.25%, and the Singapore diesel cracking spread increased by 4.43% [6]. Group 3: Polyester Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - **PX**: PX rebound is under pressure, but there is support at low levels. PX09 is expected to operate in the range of 6600 - 6900 in the short term, and opportunities to expand the PX - SC spread at low levels can be focused on [10]. - **PTA**: PTA supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the absolute price rebound is under pressure. TA is expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800 in the short term, and short - selling strategies can be considered above 4800 [10]. - **MEG**: The supply - demand of ethylene glycol is gradually turning to be loose, and the price is expected to oscillate and consolidate in the short term. EG09 can be observed unilaterally, focusing on the pressure around 4400 [10]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand of short - fiber is weak, and the processing fee repair space is limited. The absolute price fluctuates with raw materials. Strategies mainly focus on expanding the processing fee at low levels on the PF disk [10]. - **Bottle - chip**: The supply - demand of bottle - chip has improvement expectations, but the absolute price still fluctuates with the cost side. PR strategies are similar to PTA, and opportunities to expand the processing fee at the lower edge of the range can be focused on [10]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil decreased. The prices and spreads of PX, PTA, MEG, and other products also changed. For example, the PX spot price (in RMB) increased by 1.6%, and the PTA spot processing fee decreased by 23.9% [10]. - **开工率**: The operating rates of Asian PX, PTA, MEG, and some downstream industries changed. For example, the Asian PX operating rate decreased by 0.5%, and the PTA operating rate increased by 2.0% [10]. Group 4: Chlor - alkali Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market is expected to be strong in the short term. The supply - demand contradiction is limited, and the high profit stimulates high production. The transaction activity between alumina plants and traders has increased, and the short - term macro - sentiment is strong [14][15]. - **PVC**: The PVC market is weakly sorted. The current supply - demand pattern is in the off - season of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. Although the macro - atmosphere has improved, it is difficult to see a significant price decline in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [14][15]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC products changed. For example, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda increased by 2.4%, and the price of V2509 increased by 0.6% [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda production rate is high, and the downstream operating rates of some industries have changed slightly. The PVC production rate is relatively stable, and the downstream product operating rates are decreasing, and the inventory is slightly accumulating [14][15]. Group 5: Styrene Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - **Pure Benzene**: In the short term, pure benzene has rebounded, but its own driving force is limited. The import expectation is high, and the port inventory is at a high level. The price transmission of some downstream products is not smooth, which may limit the rebound space. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and adopt the reverse - spread strategy for the month - spread [38]. - **Styrene**: The styrene industry is operating at a high level, but the supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the port inventory is increasing. Although the absolute price is supported by the strong oil price and the commodity market atmosphere, the increase is limited. EB08 should focus on the pressure above 7500, and high - short opportunities can be considered [38]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil decreased. The prices and spreads of pure benzene, styrene, and downstream products also changed. For example, the price of styrene in East China increased by 0.3%, and the EB cash flow (non - integrated) decreased by 28.9% [38]. - **Inventory and开工率**: The inventory of pure benzene and styrene in East China ports increased. The operating rates of Asian pure benzene, domestic pure benzene, and styrene also changed slightly [38]. Group 6: Methanol Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints The inland methanol market has limited short - term decline space due to the support of centralized maintenance in July. The port market is facing dual pressures: the复产 of Iranian plants is continuing, and the import in July is expected to reach 1.2 million tons; at the same time, the planned maintenance of coastal MTO will weaken the olefin demand, and the port is expected to turn to slight inventory accumulation in July, and the price suppression is significantly enhanced [41]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of methanol contracts and spot prices changed. For example, MA2601 increased by 0.82%, and the price of Inner Mongolia's north - line spot decreased by 0.75% [41]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol inventories are accumulating. The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 4.11%, and the downstream external - purchase MTO device operating rate decreased by 0.50% [41]. Group 7: Urea Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints The urea futures price has declined, mainly due to the superposition of the expectation of loose supply and short - term weakening demand. The daily production is maintained at a high level, and the demand for agricultural summer top - dressing is coming to an end, and industrial demand is restricted by high temperatures. Although the export policy is relaxed and the Indian tender price has increased, the short - term export orders have not fully alleviated the domestic inventory pressure. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [48]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of urea contracts and spot prices changed. For example, the price of Shandong (small particles) decreased by 2.15% [48]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of urea is abundant, and the demand is weakening. The daily production remains high, and the agricultural and industrial demands are both decreasing. The inventory in ports is increasing, while the inventory in factories is decreasing [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market remain uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the fundamentals are still in a tight - balance, with the market in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. Investors are advised to control risks and wait and see [2]. - For methanol, the upstream maintenance has increased, and the start - up rate has fallen from a high level. The demand side is weak, and the spot valuation is still high. In the off - season, the upside space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Regarding urea, the domestic supply and demand are acceptable, the price has support at the bottom, but the upside space is also limited by high supply. It is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [4]. - For rubber, NR and RU have risen significantly, but they should guard against the risk of correction. The overall tire start - up rate is relatively high, and it is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view in the second half of the year, with a neutral - to - long or neutral short - term view [7][8][10]. - For PVC, the supply is strong and the demand is weak. The disk's main logic is the transition from destocking to stockpiling. Although it has strengthened recently following the black building materials sector, it will still face pressure in the future [12]. - For benzene - ethylene, there are different views from both long and short sides. The short - term geopolitical impact has subsided, and the price is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [13][14]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to fluctuate due to global trade policy uncertainties and seasonal off - season factors [17]. - For polypropylene, the price is expected to be bearish in July due to the supply - demand weakness in the seasonal off - season [18]. - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, it is expected to continue destocking. It is recommended to pay attention to long opportunities on dips following crude oil [20][21]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to long opportunities on dips following PX [22]. - For ethylene glycol, the Saudi plant's unexpected situation is expected to make it run strongly in the short term, but the fundamentals are weak in the long term [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Situation**: WTI主力原油期货收跌1.92美元，跌幅2.79%，报66.83美元；布伦特主力原油期货收跌1.49美元，跌幅2.11%，报69.14美元；INE主力原油期货收涨13.60元，涨幅2.65%，报527.5元 [5]. - **Data**: China's weekly crude oil data shows that the crude oil arrival inventory increased by 0.75 million barrels to 206.30 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.36%. Gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.86 million barrels to 89.83 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%. Diesel commercial inventory increased by 1.76 million barrels to 102.59 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 1.75%. Total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 3.63 million barrels to 192.42 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 1.92% [5]. Methanol - **Market Situation**: On July 14, the 09 contract rose by 26 yuan/ton, reporting 2396 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose by 12 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16 [2]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Upstream maintenance has increased, and the start - up rate has fallen from a high level. The overseas device start - up rate has returned to the middle - high level. The demand side is in the off - season, with the port olefin load reduction and the traditional demand start - up rate falling [2]. Urea - **Market Situation**: On July 14, the 09 contract fell by 9 yuan/ton, reporting 1764 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell by 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 46 [4]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The domestic start - up rate has increased slightly, with a daily output of 19.9 tons. The demand side, such as compound fertilizer start - up rate, has bottomed out and rebounded, and the export collection is still continuing [4]. Rubber - **Market Situation**: NR and RU have risen significantly [7]. - **Industry Data**: As of July 10, 2025, the full - steel tire start - up load of Shandong tire enterprises was 64.54%, 0.81 percentage points higher than last week and 5.59 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The semi - steel tire start - up load of domestic tire enterprises was 72.55%, 2.51 percentage points higher than last week and 6.36 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7 tons, an increase of 0.6% [8]. PVC - **Market Situation**: The PVC09 contract rose by 30 yuan, reporting 5010 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4850 (- 10) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 160 (- 40) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 113 (- 1) yuan/ton [12]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The overall start - up rate of PVC this week was 77%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. The demand side was weak, and the domestic start - up rate was still lower than in previous years and was gradually entering the off - season. Exports were expected to weaken [12]. Benzene - Ethylene - **Market Situation**: Spot prices and futures prices have risen, and the basis has weakened [14]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The cost side of pure benzene start - up rate has increased, and the supply is relatively abundant. The supply side of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit has decreased, but the benzene - ethylene start - up rate has continued to rise. The port inventory has increased, and the demand side is in the seasonal off - season [14]. Polyethylene - **Market Situation**: Futures prices have fallen [17]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Global trade policy uncertainties have returned. The spot price has fallen, and the PE valuation has limited downward space. The trader inventory is fluctuating at a high level, and the demand side is in the seasonal off - season [17]. Polypropylene - **Market Situation**: Futures prices have fallen [18]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually recover. The demand side is in the seasonal off - season, with the downstream start - up rate seasonally fluctuating downward [18]. PX - **Market Situation**: The PX09 contract rose by 84 yuan, reporting 6778 yuan. The PX CFR rose by 15 dollars, reporting 852 dollars, and the basis was 243 (+ 42) yuan, with the 9 - 1 spread of 94 (+ 20) yuan [20]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: China's PX load was 81.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%. Asian load was 73.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. The PTA load was 79.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5% [20]. PTA - **Market Situation**: The PTA09 contract rose by 40 yuan, reporting 4740 yuan. The East China spot price rose by 25 yuan, reporting 4735 yuan, with a basis of 8 (+ 8) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 40 (+ 2) yuan [22]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The PTA load was 79.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. The downstream load was 88.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4% [22]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Situation**: The EG09 contract rose by 52 yuan, reporting 4357 yuan. The East China spot price rose by 14 yuan, reporting 4398 yuan, with a basis of 67 (+ 2), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 12 (+ 14) yuan [23]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The ethylene glycol load was 68.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. The downstream load was 88.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. The port inventory decreased by 2.7 tons to 55.3 tons [23].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Polyester Industry - PX: Although recently affected by rising oil prices and positive domestic commodity sentiment, its rebound is under pressure due to postponed domestic plant maintenance, recovering overseas supply, potential PTA plant maintenance, and weakening terminal demand. However, considering future PTA plant startups, its supply - demand is expected to be tight, and it has support at low levels. The PX09 is expected to trade in the range of 6600 - 6900 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA: In July, its supply - demand is expected to be weak due to general plant maintenance, expected new plant startups, strong downstream polyester plant production cuts, and weakening terminal demand. Its absolute price rebound is under pressure, and it is expected to trade in the range of 4600 - 4800 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG: With the increase in supply from domestic and overseas plants, its supply is turning loose. Although the polyester and terminal loads are declining, the cost side is strong, and its price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. - Short - fiber: Both supply and demand are weak, with limited driving forces. Its absolute price fluctuates with raw materials, and it is expected to trade in the range of 6350 - 6600 yuan/ton [2]. - Bottle - chip: Its supply - demand is expected to improve, but its absolute price still follows the cost side. Attention should be paid to further production cuts of bottle - chip plants and downstream follow - up [2]. Polyolefin Industry PP and PE both show a supply contraction trend, with compressed weighted profits. Static supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory is accumulating. In July, the supply pressure is not large, and the de - stocking situation has improved. There is a lack of strong driving forces for both, and they should be traded within a range. The LP spread can be taken profit at around 250 [7]. Urea Industry The core drivers from the fundamental and macro - news aspects are the market confidence boost brought by the Indian tender price. The short - term market has expectations for export benefits. With support from agricultural and industrial demand and partial alleviation of supply pressure by maintenance plans, the short - term market shows an upward - fluctuating trend. However, the sustainability of demand is to be observed, and long positions should not be over - chased [10]. Crude Oil Industry The main logic for the oil price increase is geopolitical risks and supply interruption expectations. Although the EIA inventory is still accumulating, the refined oil crack spread is strong, and refinery processing demand exists. The oil price is likely to run strongly in the short term, and the WTI is expected to trade in the range of [64, 70] dollars/barrel, Brent in [67, 72] dollars/barrel, and SC in [510, 535] yuan/barrel [13]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand contradiction is limited. High profits stimulate high production, and the non - aluminum downstream is in the off - season. However, the trading activity between alumina plants and traders has increased, and sporadic premium transactions have occurred. It is expected to run strongly in the short term [40]. - PVC: The domestic PVC powder market price has increased, but the supply - demand pattern has entered the off - season of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The fundamentals have not improved significantly, and inventory has slightly increased. Although the fundamentals are weak, it is difficult to see a sharp price decline in the short term due to the positive macro - atmosphere, and it is recommended to wait and see [40]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Recently, it has rebounded significantly at low levels due to strong oil prices and positive domestic commodity market sentiment. In July, its supply - demand is expected to improve, but its own driving force is limited due to high import expectations and high port inventory. The rebound space may be restricted, and it is recommended to wait and see on the long side and conduct spread reverse arbitrage [42]. - Styrene: The industry profit is good, and the industry operating rate is high. However, due to the increasing losses of some downstream industries and high finished - product inventory, its supply - demand is expected to weaken. Although the absolute price is supported by strong oil prices and positive domestic commodity atmosphere, its increase is limited. Short - selling opportunities above 7500 yuan/ton for EB08 can be considered [42]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150/48 price dropped by 2.5%, FDY150/96 price remained unchanged, DTY150/48 price remained unchanged, etc. [2] Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (September) rose by 2.5%, WTI crude oil (August) rose by 2.8%, CFR Japan naphtha dropped by 1.2%, etc. [2] PX - related Prices and Spreads - CFR China PX remained unchanged, PX spot price (RMB) dropped by 1.3%, etc. [2] PTA - related Prices and Spreads - PTA East - China spot price dropped by 0.5%, TA futures 2509 dropped by 0.9%, etc. [2] MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Expectations MEG port inventory increased by 6.4%, and the arrival expectation decreased by 36.0% [2]. Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rate Changes The Asian PX operating rate dropped by 0.5%, the Chinese PX operating rate increased by 0.3%, etc. [2] Polyolefin Industry Futures Contract Prices L2601 closed at 7278 yuan/ton, down 0.46%; PP2601 closed at 7054 yuan/ton, down 0.49%, etc. [7] Spot Prices East - China PP拉丝 spot price dropped by 0.42%, North - China LDPE film material spot price remained unchanged, etc. [7] Inventory and Operating Rates PE enterprise inventory increased by 12.48%, PP device operating rate dropped by 1.1%, etc. [7] Urea Industry Futures Contract Prices The methanol main contract dropped by 1.17%, 01 contract rose by 0.06%, etc. [10] Spot Prices Shandong (small - particle) urea spot price remained unchanged, etc. [10] Supply and Demand Data Domestic urea weekly production increased by 1.12%, domestic urea plant - level inventory decreased by 4.99%, etc. [10] Crude Oil Industry Crude Oil Prices and Spreads Brent rose by 0.23%, WTI rose by 0.16%, Brent M1 - M3 rose by 1.45%, etc. [13] Refined Oil Prices and Spreads NYM RBOB rose by 0.04%, NYM ULSD rose by 0.60%, etc. [13] Refined Oil Crack Spreads US gasoline crack spread dropped by 0.33%, European diesel crack spread rose by 5.77%, etc. [13] PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Spot and Futures Prices Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent - 100% price remained unchanged, East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price remained unchanged, etc. [36] Overseas Quotes and Export Profits FOB East - China port caustic soda price dropped by 3.8%, PVC export profit increased by 11.2%, etc. [36][37] Supply and Demand Data Caustic soda industry operating rate dropped by 0.4%, PVC total operating rate dropped by 1.9%, etc. [38] Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Upstream Prices Brent crude oil (September) rose by 2.5%, CFR Japan naphtha dropped by 1.2%, etc. [42] Styrene - related Prices and Spreads Styrene East - China spot price dropped by 1.3%, EB futures 2508 dropped by 1.4%, etc. [42] Styrene Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows EPS ordinary material (East - China) rose by 1.8%, PS (East - China) rose by 0.4%, etc. [42] Inventory and Operating Rates Pure benzene East - China port inventory increased by 6.7%, styrene operating rate dropped by 1.4%, etc. [42]

1. Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - For crude oil, the short - term supply is in a tight balance due to reduced exports from Russia and post - war Iran, but political expectations are extremely bearish. Given the current neutral - high valuation, it's advisable to wait patiently for short - selling opportunities [3]. - For methanol, the domestic market is likely to show a pattern of weak supply and demand. With high spot valuation and limited upside space in the off - season, it's recommended to wait and see [5]. - For urea, the domestic supply - demand situation is acceptable, with price support at the bottom but limited upside due to high supply. It's more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [7]. - For rubber, it's expected to be easier to rise than fall in the second half of the year. Adopt a long - term bullish strategy, and short - term trading can be neutral - bullish, also pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [13]. - For PVC, the supply is strong and demand is weak. Although it may follow the rebound in the black building materials sector in the short term, it will still face pressure later [15]. - For styrene, the BZN spread may repair, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the cost side [17][18]. - For polyethylene, the price is likely to remain volatile as the short - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction [20]. - For polypropylene, the price is expected to be bearish in July under the background of weak supply and demand in the off - season [21]. - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, it is expected to continue to destock in the third quarter. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [23]. - For PTA, there is pressure on processing fees due to expected continuous inventory accumulation, but pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [24]. - For ethylene glycol, the fundamental situation is weak, and pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [25]. 3. Summary by Catalog Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: As of Friday, WTI crude futures rose $1.88 (2.81%) to $68.75; Brent crude futures rose $1.75 (2.54%) to $70.63; INE crude futures fell 8.60 yuan (1.65%) to 513.9 yuan [2]. - **Data**: European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory increased by 0.38 million barrels (4.11%) to 9.53 million barrels; diesel inventory decreased by 0.57 million barrels (4.00%) to 13.77 million barrels; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.37 million barrels (6.04%) to 6.47 million barrels; naphtha inventory increased by 0.71 million barrels (13.60%) to 5.94 million barrels; aviation kerosene inventory decreased by 0.17 million barrels (2.84%) to 5.93 million barrels; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.71 million barrels (1.73%) to 41.63 million barrels [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 11, the 09 contract fell 28 yuan/ton to 2370 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 22 yuan/ton with a basis of +2 [5]. - **Supply - Demand**: Upstream maintenance increased, and the operating rate declined from a high level. Overseas device operation returned to medium - high levels, and the market's reaction to overseas supply disruptions ended. Port olefin demand decreased, and traditional demand was in the off - season [5]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 11, the 09 contract fell 4 yuan/ton to 1773 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged with a basis of +57 [7]. - **Supply - Demand**: Domestic production increased slightly, with a daily output of 19.9 tons. The overall corporate profit was at a medium - low level. The demand from compound fertilizer production picked up, and export containerization continued [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Due to the bullish expectation of the real estate market, most industrial products rose, and NR and RU rose significantly [10]. - **Supply - Demand**: Bulls expect production cuts in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, and the price usually rises in the second half of the year. Bears believe that the macro - expectation has worsened, demand is in the off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected. As of July 10, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 64.54%, up 0.81 percentage points from last week and 5.59 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.55%, up 2.51 percentage points from last week and down 6.36 percentage points from the same period last year. As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 tons, up 0.7 tons (0.6%) [11][12]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 60 yuan to 4980 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4860 yuan/ton, the basis was - 120 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 112 yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply - Demand**: The overall operating rate was 77%, down 0.5%. The downstream operating rate was 41.1%, down 1.8%. Factory inventory was 38.2 tons (- 0.5 tons), and social inventory was 62.4 tons (+ 3.2 tons). There is an expectation of new device production in the short term, and export is expected to weaken [15]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price rose, the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread was at a low level in the same period, with large upward repair space [17]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply of pure benzene increased, the profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation decreased, and the operating rate of styrene continued to rise. The port inventory increased, and the demand of three S products decreased seasonally [17][18]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell, the spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation had limited downward space [20]. - **Supply - Demand**: Trade - related inventory was at a high - level shock, and the demand for agricultural film orders was at a low - level shock. There was no new production capacity plan in July [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell, the spot price remained unchanged, and the basis strengthened [21]. - **Supply - Demand**: The profit of Shandong refineries rebounded, and the supply of propylene was expected to increase. The downstream operating rate declined seasonally, and the price was expected to be bearish in July [21]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 88 yuan to 6694 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 15 dollars to 837 dollars [23]. - **Supply - Demand**: The Chinese operating rate was 81.3%, up 0.3%, and the Asian operating rate was 73.6%, down 0.5%. After the end of the maintenance season, it is expected to continue to destock in the third quarter due to new PTA device production [23]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 42 yuan to 4700 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 25 yuan to 4710 yuan [24]. - **Supply - Demand**: The operating rate was 79.7%, up 1.5%. The downstream operating rate was 88.8%, down 1.4%. In July, there was less maintenance and new device production, and the inventory was expected to accumulate continuously [24]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 20 yuan to 4305 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 10 yuan to 4384 yuan [25]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply - side operating rate was 68.1%, up 1.5%. The downstream operating rate was 88.8%, down 1.4%. The port inventory increased by 3.5 tons to 58 tons. The fundamental situation was weak, and the inventory reduction was expected to slow down [25].

Report Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The index has broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range, and the center continues to rise. However, cautions are needed when testing key positions. The bullish spread strategy can be adopted for stock index futures. For bonds, wait for adjustment and stabilization before increasing positions. Gold and silver have different trends, and different trading strategies are recommended. For various industrial products and agricultural products, different trading suggestions are given according to their respective fundamentals and market conditions [2] Summary by Categories Financial - Stock index: The large - financial sector strongly pushes up the stock index, which hits a new high again. Consider buying low - strike put options and then selling high - strike put options to implement the bullish spread strategy [2] - Bond: The bond market lacks drivers, and the strong performance of the equity market suppresses the bond market. However, the fundamentals and capital still support the bond market. In the short - term, there may be opportunities to increase positions after adjustment and stabilization. The curve strategy recommends focusing on steepening in the medium - term [2] Metals - Precious metals: Gold price fluctuates around $3300 (765 yuan), and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money gold call options above 790. Silver price is approaching the annual high, and there is still room for further increase if it stabilizes at $37 (9000 yuan) in the short - term [2] - Industrial metals: For steel, pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For iron ore, the sentiment has improved. For coking coal, coke, copper, electrolytic aluminum, aluminum, zinc, etc., different trading suggestions are given according to their market conditions such as price trends, supply - demand relationships, and inventory levels [2][3] Energy and Chemicals - Energy: Crude oil prices have回调 due to tariff contradictions impacting demand. It is not recommended to chase high in the short - term, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] - Chemicals: For urea, PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, ethanol, etc., trading suggestions are given based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and market sentiment [2] Agricultural Products - For soybeans, corn, soy oil, white sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, dates, peanuts, and other agricultural products, different trading strategies are recommended according to their supply - demand situations, price trends, and market news [2] Special Commodities - Glass and rubber are affected by macro - atmosphere and macro - sentiment respectively, and corresponding trading suggestions are given. For industrial silicon, it is recommended to wait and see [2] New Energy - For polysilicon and lithium carbonate, their price trends are described, and the trading suggestion is to wait and see [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market are still uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the current fundamentals remain in a tight - balance. Crude oil is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2] - Methanol is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. With the improvement of domestic commodity sentiment, the upward and downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [3] - The supply and demand of domestic urea are acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. The current valuation is neutral to low, and it is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [5] - For rubber, it is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the second half of the year. Adopt a long - term bullish mindset, build positions opportunistically, and use a neutral - to - bullish short - term strategy [8][12] - PVC is expected to have strong supply and weak demand. The main logic of the market is inventory reduction and weakening. It will be under pressure in the future [14] - The price of styrene is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [17] - The price of polyethylene is expected to remain volatile [19] - The price of polypropylene is expected to be bearish in July [20] - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. It is expected to continue to reduce inventory in the third quarter. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [23] - For PTA, the supply is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and the demand side is slightly under pressure. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [24] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals are weak, and pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [25] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $1.42, or 2.08%, to $66.87; Brent main crude oil futures fell $1.30, or 1.85%, to $68.88; INE main crude oil futures rose 2.80 yuan, or 0.54%, to 522.5 yuan [1] - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.37 million barrels to 12.00 million barrels, a 2.97% decrease; diesel inventory decreased by 0.15 million barrels to 9.74 million barrels, a 1.51% decrease; fuel oil inventory increased by 1.33 million barrels to 24.71 million barrels, a 5.68% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.81 million barrels to 46.46 million barrels, a 1.78% increase [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 10, the 09 contract rose 26 yuan/ton to 2398 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 8 [3] - **Supply**: Domestic operating rate continued to decline by 3.89%, coal - to - methanol profit increased slightly, and overseas plant operating rate returned to medium - high levels [3] - **Demand**: Port MTO load decreased slightly, traditional demand operating rates varied, and it is currently the off - season. Downstream profit levels are generally low, and methanol valuation is still high [3] - **Inventory**: Both port and enterprise inventories increased during the off - season [3] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 10, the 09 contract rose 7 yuan/ton to 1777 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 53 [5] - **Supply**: Domestic operating rate increased slightly, with a daily output of 19.6 tons, and the overall corporate profit is at a medium - low level [5] - **Demand**: The operating rate of compound fertilizers has bottomed out and rebounded, and exports are still ongoing. Future demand is concentrated in compound fertilizers and exports [5] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Due to the bullish expectations in the real estate market, most industrial products rose, and NR and RU rose significantly [8] - **Long - Short Views**: Bulls believe that factors in Southeast Asia may lead to rubber production cuts, and rubber usually rises in the second half of the year. Bears think that the macro - economic outlook has deteriorated, demand is in the off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected [8] - **Industry Situation**: As of July 10, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 64.54%, up 0.81 percentage points from last week and 5.59 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 72.55%, up 2.51 percentage points from last week and down 6.36 percentage points from the same period last year. Tire enterprises' shipment rhythm has slowed down, and inventory is under pressure [9] - **Inventory**: As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 tons, a 0.6% increase; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 78.9 tons, a 1.2% increase; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 50.5 tons, a 0.3% decrease. As of July 7, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 50.52 (- 0.14) tons [10] - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14150 (+ 300) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1735 (+ 30) dollars, STR20 mixed was 1740 (+ 30) dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 9100 (+ 50) yuan, and North China butadiene was 11200 (0) yuan [11] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 77 yuan to 5040 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4860 (+ 70) yuan/ton, the basis was - 180 (- 7) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 103 (- 8) yuan/ton [14] - **Cost**: The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2250 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 620 (- 10) yuan/ton, ethylene was 820 (0) dollars/ton, and the cost remained flat. The spot price of caustic soda was 820 (+ 10) yuan/ton [14] - **Supply**: The overall PVC operating rate was 77.4%, a 0.7% decrease; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80.8%, a 0.2% decrease; the ethylene method was 68.5%, a 1.9% decrease [14] - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.9%, a 0.1% increase [14] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 38.6 tons (- 0.9), and social inventory was 59.2 tons (+ 1.7) [14] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot prices remained unchanged, while futures prices rose, and the basis weakened [17] - **Cost**: The operating rate of pure benzene increased, and the supply was relatively abundant [17] - **Supply**: The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation increased, and the operating rate of styrene continued to rise. Port inventory increased [17] - **Demand**: In the off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products decreased [17] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. The spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation has limited downward space [19] - **Supply**: The upstream operating rate was 77.82%, a 0.34% increase. Production enterprise inventory increased by 5.47 tons to 49.31 tons, and trader inventory decreased by 0.09 tons to 6.05 tons [19] - **Demand**: In the off - season, the demand for agricultural films was weak, and the overall operating rate fluctuated downward [19] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose [20] - **Supply**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover, increasing the supply of propylene [20] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate decreased seasonally. In the off - season, both supply and demand are weak, and the price is expected to be bearish in July [20] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 58 yuan to 6782 yuan, and PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 852 dollars. The basis was 240 yuan (- 45), and the 9 - 1 spread was 64 yuan (- 10) [22] - **Supply**: The operating rate in China was 81%, a 2.8% decrease; the Asian operating rate was 74.1%, a 1.1% increase. Some domestic plants reduced production, while some overseas plants restarted or increased loads [22] - **Demand**: The PTA operating rate was 79.7%, a 1.5% increase [22] - **Inventory**: In late May, the inventory was 434.6 tons, a 16.5 - ton decrease from the previous month [23] - **Valuation**: PXN was 261 dollars (+ 9), and the naphtha crack spread was 84 dollars (+ 11) [23] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 24 yuan to 4742 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 15 yuan to 4735 yuan. The basis was 7 yuan (- 29), and the 9 - 1 spread was 12 yuan (- 16) [24] - **Supply**: The PTA operating rate was 79.7%, a 1.5% increase. Some plants increased production, and a plant in Taiwan, China restarted [24] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate was 88.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Some plants restarted or underwent maintenance [24] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 213.5 tons, a 1.9 - ton increase [24] - **Valuation**: The spot processing fee of PTA decreased by 24 yuan to 128 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 14 yuan to 293 yuan [24] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 42 yuan to 4325 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 27 yuan to 4374 yuan. The basis was 70 (- 1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 33 yuan (- 4) [25] - **Supply**: The EG operating rate was 68.1%, a 1.5% increase; among them, the syngas - based method was 73.1%, a 3.8% increase; the ethylene - based method was 64.2%, a 0.6% decrease. Some domestic and overseas plants restarted [25] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate was 88.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Some plants restarted or underwent maintenance [25] - **Inventory**: The import forecast was 9.6 tons, and the East China port outbound volume on July 9 was 1.24 tons. Port inventory increased by 3.5 tons to 58 tons [25] - **Valuation**: The profit of naphtha - based production was - 644 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 704 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 951 yuan [25]