Report Information - Report Date: December 16, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Ferroalloy Morning Report Core Viewpoints - The report presents comprehensive data on the ferroalloy market, including prices, supply, demand, inventory, and cost - profit analysis of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese, facilitating investors' understanding of market trends [2][4][5] Summary by Category Price - **Silicon - Iron**: Spot prices vary by region and grade. For example, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon - iron natural block is 5200 yuan, with a daily change of 100 yuan and a weekly change of 100 yuan. Futures prices also show different trends in different contracts. The main contract price is 5518 yuan, with a daily change of 48 yuan and a weekly change of 74 yuan [2] - **Silicon - Manganese**: The ex - factory prices of different regions and grades also fluctuate. For instance, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 silicon - manganese is 5540 yuan, with a daily change of 20 yuan and a weekly change of 10 yuan. The main contract price is 5758 yuan, with a daily change of 28 yuan and a weekly change of 22 yuan [2] Supply - **Silicon - Iron**: The production data of 136 silicon - iron enterprises in China shows the overall supply situation. The capacity utilization rates of enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi also vary over time [4] - **Silicon - Manganese**: The weekly production data of silicon - manganese in China reflects the supply dynamics, and the enterprise start - up rate also affects the supply [6] Demand - **Silicon - Iron**: The demand is related to industries such as steel and metal magnesium. The production and price changes of these downstream industries will affect the demand for silicon - iron [4] - **Silicon - Manganese**: The demand is mainly affected by the steel industry. The production and price trends of steel products will influence the demand for silicon - manganese [6][7] Inventory - **Silicon - Iron**: The inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, including those in different regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, as well as warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, reflect the inventory situation [5] - **Silicon - Manganese**: The inventory data of 63 sample enterprises in China, warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the inventory average available days in China show the inventory status [7] Cost - Profit - **Silicon - Iron**: The cost is mainly affected by electricity prices, raw material prices such as semi - coke. The profit data of different regions, including Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, show the profit situation [5] - **Silicon - Manganese**: The cost is related to the prices of manganese ore and other raw materials. The profit data of different regions, such as Inner Mongolia and Guangxi, reflect the profit status [7]

【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3074 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 14 元/吨（0.457%）。当日注册仓单 41900 吨, 环比减少 1197 吨。主力合约持仓量为 162.7666 万手，环比增加 20609 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3150 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3270 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3233 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 1 元/吨（0.030%）。 当日注册仓单 103404 吨, 环比减少 4724 吨。主力合约持仓量为 122.4554 万手，环比增加 34067 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3260 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3240 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 黑色建材日报 2025-12-16 【策略观点】 昨日商品市场整体情绪偏弱，受出口政策扰动影响，成材价格承压回落。从基本面看，螺纹钢本周产量明 显下降，库存延续去化，供需结构相对平衡，整体表现中性偏稳；热轧卷板产量继续下滑，表观需求小幅 回落，库存去化难度加大，本周厂库已出现阶段性累积。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradiction of black commodities in 2026 lies in the game between the slow recovery of steel demand and the relatively loose supply of furnace materials. Demand is a slow - changing variable, and its growth mainly relies on manufacturing exports. The supply of iron ore is expected to increase, and the pattern next year is likely a process of low - cost replacing high - cost. The supply rhythm of coking coal is determined by policy changes, and macro variables may amplify market sentiment and price fluctuations [3]. - In 2026, steel demand may increase slightly by 1.5%. Domestic demand is stable, and foreign demand is expected to increase. Supply will follow the demand recovery. The steel price is expected to fluctuate within a range [33][86][87]. - Iron ore will continue its capacity expansion process. The current high valuation may face challenges in the first half of next year. The supply increment of mainstream mines will be significant, but there are uncertainties in the capacity - climbing rhythm. The global iron ore demand may increase slightly, but the oversupply situation is difficult to reverse [6][138]. - The coal - coke market may show a tight - balance pattern. The supply of coking coal will show a "safety - guarantee and supply - guarantee" two - step rhythm, and imports may impact the domestic market. Coke production will be driven by cost and demand [7][191]. - The silicon - iron and manganese - silicon markets will continue the situation of over - capacity. The price is mainly determined by cost differences in the short - term and supply - demand in the long - term. The price is expected to fluctuate with cost support and high - inventory suppression [283][285]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 Black Commodity Price Trend Review - The black commodity market in 2025 showed the characteristics of "weak supply and demand of steel, and cost first weak then strong". The iron ore had a 2% increase, while other varieties had a decline of 4% - 14%. The market can be divided into four stages: narrow - range oscillation from January to February, overall weakness from March to May, V - shaped reversal from June to July, and oscillation from August to November [10]. 3.2 2025 Steel Demand Calibration - Different institutions' data on molten iron and scrap steel consumption in 2025 showed large differences. Using the iron ore balance sheet to calculate molten iron production as the benchmark, the total demand in 2025 was basically the same as last year [15][27][30]. 3.3 2026 Steel Operation Logic 3.3.1 Demand Side - In 2026, steel demand may increase by 1.5%. Domestic demand: infrastructure offsets the decline of real estate, and the steel consumption is controllable. Real estate's steel - consumption ratio has narrowed significantly. Infrastructure investment structure is transforming, and the steel - consumption growth rate may decline to about 5%. Manufacturing: domestic consumption may improve, and foreign demand will increase through exports. Steel exports will remain high [33]. 3.3.2 Supply Side - Globally, steel production is expected to grow by 2% in 2026. In China, supply is expected to increase by 1.4% following the demand recovery, and the steel variety structure reflects the economic transformation [71][78]. 3.3.3 Steel Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2026, domestic steel demand is expected to increase by 1.6%, and exports will remain high. Supply is expected to increase by 1.5%, with molten iron having a larger supply increase than scrap steel [83][84][85]. 3.3.4 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - In 2026, the core contradiction of steel is between the slow recovery of demand and the cost loosening of furnace materials. Steel price is expected to oscillate within a range. The investment strategy is to go long near the iron ore cost line and go short when the electric - arc furnace is profitable during peak - electricity periods [86][87][88]. 3.4 2026 Iron Ore Operation Logic 3.4.1 Supply - Mainstream mines: the four major mines will contribute the main supply increment in 2026. Fortescue contributed the main increment in 2025. The production of each mine has different performances, and new projects are in progress [90][97][110]. - Non - mainstream and domestic mines: overseas non - mainstream mines' production is expected to increase by about 25 million tons in 2026. Domestic mines' production is expected to be basically the same as in 2025. There is a risk that the capacity - climbing rhythm of some projects may be lower than expected [126][130][133]. 3.4.2 Demand and Supply - Demand Balance - Global iron ore demand is expected to increase slightly in 2026, but the oversupply situation will be more obvious, with a supply - demand difference of over 20 million tons [134][136]. 3.4.3 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - Iron ore will continue capacity expansion in 2026. The high valuation may face challenges in the first half of the year, but macro factors will support the valuation. The price trend may repeat the V - shaped reversal of this year [138]. 3.5 2026 Coal - Coke Operation Logic 3.5.1 Supply Outlook - Domestic: coking coal production in 2026 is expected to show a "safety - guarantee and supply - guarantee" two - step rhythm, with a year - on - year micro - increase of 0.5% [148]. - Overseas: Mongolian and Russian coal may impact the domestic market. Mongolian coal imports are expected to increase, but there is a risk of expectation difference. Russian coal imports are restricted by factors such as transportation capacity and cost [152][156][166]. 3.5.2 Coke - Backward coke - oven capacities will be phased out. The coke market will be driven by cost and demand, and the supply - demand will continue the tight - balance situation [175][176]. 3.5.3 Demand Outlook - In 2026, the demand for coal - coke will be supported by molten iron production. The game between weak reality and strong expectation and the inflection point of the replenishment cycle will increase price volatility [183]. 3.5.4 2026 Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand game of coal - coke will enter a normal stage in 2026. The domestic coking coal supply will be adjusted by policy, and imports will be an important factor [187]. 3.5.5 2026 Coal - Coke Conclusion and Investment Outlook - The coal - coke price bottom may have been tested in 2025. The market will show a tight - balance pattern, with both total and structural contradictions. The investment should focus on the rhythm [191]. 3.6 2026 Silicon - Iron and Manganese - Silicon Operation Logic 3.6.1 2025 Manganese - Silicon Price Trend Review - The manganese - silicon market in 2025 showed a V - shaped trend, with four stages: rising and then falling in the first stage, oscillating downward in the second stage, rising steadily in the third stage, and oscillating in the fourth stage [193]. 3.6.2 2025 Silicon - Iron Price Trend Review - The silicon - iron market in 2025 had a downward - moving price center, with three stages: falling in the first stage, rising and then falling in the second stage, and oscillating in the third stage [201]. 3.6.3 Supply Side - Manganese - silicon: the supply is in an over - capacity situation. The production is concentrated in the north, and the south is under operating pressure. The future capacity will continue to gather in the main production areas [208][209][221]. - Silicon - iron: the capacity expansion rate has slowed down, but there is still over - capacity. The production is concentrated in the northwest, and the elimination and replacement of backward capacity will be the mainstream [222][223][238]. 3.6.4 Demand Side - The demand for ferroalloys is mainly driven by steel production. In 2026, steel production is expected to increase, and the demand for ferroalloys will be slightly boosted. The export of ferroalloys is under pressure [239][240][252]. 3.6.5 Cost and Inventory - Cost: the cost of manganese - silicon is mainly affected by manganese ore, electricity, and chemical coke prices. The cost of silicon - iron first decreases and then increases [254][271][272]. - Inventory: the manganese - silicon inventory is high, and the inventory inflection point may be postponed. The silicon - iron inventory is relatively healthy [274]. 3.6.6 2025 Annual Silicon - Iron and Manganese - Silicon Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply of ferroalloys is affected by profit and policy. The demand is mainly determined by steel production. In 2026, the supply and demand of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon will continue to be affected by over - capacity [277][278][280]. 3.6.7 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - In 2026, the price of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon will follow the logic of "short - term cost determines the direction, long - term supply - demand determines the center". The investment strategy is to focus on cost and supply - demand changes, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [282][283][285].

【华宝期货】黑色产业链周报 华宝期货 2025.12.15 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 目录 01 周度行情回顾 03 品种数据（成材、铁矿石、煤焦、铁合金） 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 01 周度行情回顾 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025.12.12 | 2025.12.5 | 价格变动 | 涨跌幅 | | 2025.12.12 | 2025.12.5 | 价格变动 | | | 螺纹钢 | RB2605 | 3060 | 3157 | -97 | -3.07% | HRB400E: Φ20:汇总价格:上海 | 3270 | 3290 | -20 | -0.61% | | 热轧卷板 | HC2605 ...

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 12 月 15 日 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | | | | 期 货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5518 | 48 | 74 | 408236 | 94888 | 256924 | 244 | | SM主力合约 | 5758 | 28 | 22 | 225195 | 64578 | 273655 | -7429 | | | | | | 现 货 | | | | | 硅铁 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5300 | 100 | 70 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5540 | 20 | 10 | | 72%FeSi宁夏 | 5300 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products (including Rebar and Hot-rolled Coil)**: Cautiously bearish [1][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: Cautiously bearish [1][7][8] - **Coke**: Cautiously bullish [1][10][11] - **Coking Coal**: Bullish [1][13][14] - **Ferroalloys (including Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon)**: Cautiously bullish [1][17][18] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel Products**: Mid - term, they are expected to operate within a range. Rebar may oscillate within a range in the medium term due to weak drivers and low valuation. Hot - rolled coil may be relatively weaker than rebar in stages [1][3][5] - **Iron Ore**: With the decline in hot metal production and the end of the sentiment boost from the economic work conference, the ore price is under pressure, but the decrease in the arrival of foreign ores provides short - term support [1][6][7] - **Coke**: The second round of spot price cuts has started, and short - term prices have rebounded from the bottom. Although hot metal production decline suppresses demand, supply in production areas has decreased slightly [1][9][10] - **Coking Coal**: Domestic coal production has decreased, and some coal mines have cut production. Although Mongolian coal prices are weak, short - term prices have rebounded from the bottom [1][12][13] - **Ferroalloys**: The supply - demand structure of both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon is relatively loose. The prices are at a relatively low level and are expected to oscillate within a range [1][15][17] 3. Summaries According to Different Varieties Steel Products - **Rebar**: Production and apparent demand have continued to decline month - on - month, reaching the lowest levels in the same period. Inventory depletion is normal. Hot metal production has dropped below 2.3 million tons, pressuring raw material demand. The new export license regulations may affect steel exports next year [1][4] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Production and apparent demand have continued to decline slightly. Inventory reduction is slow, and the inventory level is at a record high for the same period. The spot price is relatively weak, and the basis fluctuates around par [1][4] Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Hot metal production has decreased month - on - month, and there is an expectation of further reduction. Steel mills are reducing inventory, while port inventory is increasing. The arrival of foreign ores has decreased, providing short - term support for the ore price. The economic work conference has boosted the price in the short term, but the price is still under pressure after the sentiment trading [1][6][7] Coke - **Market Situation**: The second round of spot price cuts has started. Some areas have implemented production restrictions due to environmental protection requirements. Although the production enthusiasm of coke enterprises is okay, the supply in production areas has decreased slightly. Hot metal production decline has suppressed demand. Short - term prices have rebounded from the bottom [1][9][10] Coking Coal - **Market Situation**: Domestic coal production has decreased month - on - month, and clean coal inventory has continued to increase. Some coal mines have cut production due to approaching annual production targets. Mongolian coal prices are weak, but short - term prices have rebounded from the bottom due to the impact of weather on downstream delivery [1][12][13] Ferroalloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The port ore price is firm, and the far - month quotation of Australian ore has increased slightly. Supply in production areas has increased, demand has weakened, and inventory has continued to increase. The final price of the iconic steel mill in December's steel procurement is 5,770 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton [1][16][17] - **Ferrosilicon**: There has been a slight production cut in the main production areas, demand has continued to weaken, and inventory has increased significantly. The final price of the iconic steel mill in December's steel procurement is 5,660 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan/ton [1][16][17]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak last Friday, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. The terminal demand remains weak, and the inventory pressure of hot-rolled coils is prominent. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the bottom range. With the approaching of winter storage, attention should be paid to winter storage policies and price guidance [2]. - The supply of iron ore has slightly increased, while the demand has decreased, and the inventory has continued to rise. The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of 750 yuan/ton for the weighted contract [5]. - The market is relatively optimistic about the black sector and domestic policies. It is recommended to pay attention to whether there are any unexpected situations, as well as the inflection points of sentiment and prices [9]. - The supply and demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon remains basically balanced. The future market trends of these two products will be mainly influenced by the direction of the black sector and cost increases [10]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to be weak in the short term, and it may rebound if the sentiment of "anti-involution" related commodities improves. Attention should be paid to new supply-side disturbances in the northwest [14]. - The price of polysilicon is expected to be affected by the "anti-involution" policy and the weak supply and demand situation. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of 60,000 yuan for the futures contract [16]. - The float glass market is in a state of weak supply-demand balance and is expected to continue to show a narrow-range fluctuation trend in the short term [19]. - The price of soda ash is expected to continue to decline under pressure in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of enterprise maintenance schedules and inventory changes on the market [21]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton (-0.29%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 43,097 tons, a net increase of 2,418 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.607057 million lots, a net increase of 4,982 lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai remained unchanged [1]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract was 3,232 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 108,128 tons, a net decrease of 886 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.190487 million lots, a net increase of 42,139 lots. The spot price in Lecong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while that in Shanghai remained unchanged [1]. Strategy Views - The production of rebar decreased significantly this week, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral to stable overall performance. The production of hot-rolled coils continued to decline, the apparent demand decreased slightly, and it was more difficult to reduce inventory. The factory inventory also increased this week [2]. - The central economic work conference proposed to focus on stabilizing the real estate market, which will provide some support for steel demand, but the steel consumption related to real estate will remain weak [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2605) was 760.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.46% (+3.50). The position decreased by 2,568 lots to 465,500 lots. The weighted position was 882,300 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 782 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 70.00 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 8.43% [4]. Strategy Views - The overseas iron ore shipments increased slightly in the latest period. The shipments from Australia increased, while those from Brazil decreased. The shipments from non-mainstream countries reached a new high for the year, and the near-term arrivals decreased [5]. - The daily average pig iron output decreased to below 2.3 million tons. The profitability of steel mills decreased slightly, and the port inventory continued to rise [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On December 12, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed up 0.32% at 5,730 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5,700 yuan/ton, with a basis of 160 yuan/ton [8]. - The ferrosilicon main contract (SF603) closed up 0.96% at 5,470 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5,600 yuan/ton, with a basis of 130 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy Views - The supply and demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, but most of these factors have been reflected in the price. The supply and demand structure of ferrosilicon remains basically balanced [10]. - The future market trends of these two products will be mainly influenced by the direction of the black sector and cost increases, especially the potential impact of sudden changes in the manganese ore market [10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract (SI2605) was 8,390 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.94% (+160). The weighted contract position decreased by 35,281 lots to 459,941 lots. The spot price of 553 non-oxygenated silicon in East China remained unchanged at 9,200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 810 yuan/ton [12]. - The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract (PS2605) was 57,190 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.56% (+1,425). The weighted contract position increased by 4,484 lots to 269,692 lots. The average spot prices of N-type granular silicon, dense material, and reclaimed material remained unchanged, with a basis of -4,890 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Views - The production of industrial silicon has reached a bottleneck in decline, and the demand has weakened. The price is expected to be weak in the short term and may rebound if the sentiment of related commodities improves [14]. - The production of polysilicon is expected to continue to decline in December, but the decline may be limited. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is difficult to relieve. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of 60,000 yuan for the futures contract [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - The glass main contract closed at 964 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a decrease of 2.03% (-20). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 1.215 million boxes (-2.04%) week-on-week. The top 20 long and short positions decreased by 68,030 and 67,811 lots respectively [18]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1,094 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a decrease of 2.76% (-31). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 443,000 tons (-2.04%) week-on-week. The top 20 long and short positions decreased by 54,680 and 61,494 lots respectively [20]. Strategy Views - The supply of glass decreased due to cold repairs, and the market sales were supported to some extent. However, due to high inventory and weak terminal demand, the upward space was limited. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [19]. - The supply of soda ash increased due to the resumption of production of maintenance enterprises and new capacity releases. The downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the price is expected to continue to decline under pressure in the short term [21].

硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2025年12月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 硅铁&锰硅观点：合金原料端成本坚挺，盘面走势震荡 | 基本面 | 条 目 | | | | | | 硅铁(宁夏） | | | | | | | 锰硅 | | | （内蒙古） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 当期值 | | | 环 | 比 | | 同 | 比 | 当期值 | | | | 环 | 比 | | 同 | 比 | | 供 应 | 周产量 | （周） | 10 63 . | | | -2 . | 30% | | -9 . | 45% | 18 . | 92 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The overall finished steel is supported by policy expectations at the lower level, with raw material costs decreasing and profit margins gradually improving. The steel price may fluctuate within a range, with rebar expected to trade between 3000 - 3300 yuan/ton and hot-rolled coil between 3200 - 3500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed and downstream consumption [3]. - The trading weight of iron ore fundamentals has slightly increased recently. However, with the alleviation of industrial chain contradictions, the recovery of steel mill profits, and the strengthening of rigid demand for winter storage replenishment, the downside price space is expected to be limited. In the short term, the price may fluctuate with macro - sentiment [21]. - The marginal change in coking coal supply is limited, but due to pressure on terminal steel mill profits and continuous reduction in hot metal production, the surplus of coking coal has deepened. Coking coal prices will remain under pressure in the short term. For coke, as the cost of coking coal decreases, subsequent coke supply is expected to increase, and there may be inventory accumulation pressure [31]. - Ferroalloys face a fundamental situation of high inventory and weak demand. Although the cost center may shift downward, the supply side maintains a production - cut trend, and the low valuation limits the downside space. Ferroalloys are expected to fluctuate weakly, but there may be a rebound due to production - cut drivers [46]. - With the strengthening of new production capacity commissioning expectations, the surplus expectation of soda ash is intensifying, and the futures price has begun to break through the cost. The rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken further. The overall high inventory in the upstream and middle reaches limits the price [60]. - In December, there are renewed expectations for cold - repair of glass production lines, which will affect long - term pricing and market expectations. The near - term contract 01 will still follow the reality. Currently, there is still pressure on the spot market, and the degree of inventory destocking in the middle - stream should be observed [84]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price Data**: On December 12, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3082 yuan/ton, 3060 yuan/ton, and 3093 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3240 yuan/ton, 3232 yuan/ton, and 3239 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spread Data**: The 01 - 05 month spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil were 22 yuan/ton and 8 yuan/ton respectively; the 05 - 10 month spreads were - 33 yuan/ton and - 7 yuan/ton respectively; the 10 - 01 month spreads were 11 yuan/ton and - 1 yuan/ton respectively [4]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On December 12, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 782.5 yuan/ton, 760.5 yuan/ton, and 738 yuan/ton respectively; the 01, 05, and 09 basis were - 1.5 yuan/ton, 20.5 yuan/ton, and 43 yuan/ton respectively [22]. - **Fundamental Data**: The daily average hot metal production was 229.2 tons; the 45 - port desilting volume was 319.19 tons; the global shipping volume was 3368.6 tons; the 45 - port inventory was 15431.42 tons [25]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Price Data**: On December 12, 2025, the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 month spreads of coking coal were 145 yuan/ton, - 74 yuan/ton, and - 71 yuan/ton respectively; those of coke were 236 yuan/ton, - 83 yuan/ton, and - 153 yuan/ton respectively [34]. - **Spot Price Data**: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1500 yuan/ton; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at the 288 port was 922 yuan/ton [37]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On December 12, 2025, the basis of silicon iron in Ningxia was - 20 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 spreads were - 42 yuan/ton, - 52 yuan/ton, and 94 yuan/ton respectively [47]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The basis of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia was 140 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 spreads were - 54 yuan/ton, - 42 yuan/ton, and 96 yuan/ton respectively [48]. Soda Ash - **Price Data**: On December 12, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 soda ash contracts were 1093 yuan/ton, 1126 yuan/ton, and 1184 yuan/ton respectively; the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month spreads were - 58 yuan/ton, 91 yuan/ton, and - 33 yuan/ton respectively [61]. - **Spot Price Data**: The market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1300 yuan/ton, and the difference between heavy and light soda ash was 50 yuan/ton [61]. Glass - **Price Data**: On December 12, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 glass contracts were 935 yuan/ton, 1062 yuan/ton, and 1135 yuan/ton respectively; the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month spreads were - 73 yuan/ton, 200 yuan/ton, and - 127 yuan/ton respectively [85]. - **Sales and Production Data**: On December 10, 2025, the sales - to - production ratios in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China were 101, 94, 92, and 107 respectively [86].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Macro: The Politburo meeting on December 8 emphasized ensuring the supply of important livelihood commodities, and coal policies focus on stable production, supply, and clean utilization [7]. - Overseas: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 9 - 10, and most investment banks predict a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut in 2026, mainly in the first half [7]. - Supply - demand: Market transactions are mainly for terminal rigid - demand restocking, with neutral inventory. Profits in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia are in the red, and the December HeSteel 75B ferrosilicon tender price dropped by 80 yuan/ton [7]. - Technical: The weekly K - line of ferrosilicon's main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [7]. - Strategy: Supply is expected to decline in December due to losses and no new capacity. Demand will continue to fall as the country maintains the policy of reducing crude steel output. The ferrosilicon 2603 contract is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Macro: The Politburo meeting focused on livelihood and coal policies, and the Fed cut interest rates [7]. - Supply - demand: Market transactions are for rigid - demand restocking, with neutral inventory. Inner Mongolia's spot profit is - 440 yuan/ton, and Ningxia's is - 565 yuan/ton. The December HeSteel 75B ferrosilicon tender price dropped by 80 yuan/ton [7]. - Technical: The weekly K - line of the main contract is bearish [7]. - Strategy: Supply will decline in December, demand will continue to fall, and the 2603 contract is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: As of December 12, the ferrosilicon futures contract open interest was 439,900 lots, a decrease of 21,400 lots. The 5 - 1 contract spread was 42, an increase of 8. The warehouse receipt quantity was 13,082, a decrease of 506. The Ningxia ferrosilicon price was 5200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [13][19] - Spot Market: As of December 12, the ferrosilicon basis was - 350, a decrease of 26 points [25] 3.3 Industry Chain - Supply - demand: The national 136 - enterprise sample's capacity utilization rate was 32.44%, a decrease of 1.36%. The daily output was 15,180 tons, a decrease of 2.32%. The five - major steel grades' ferrosilicon weekly demand was 18,048 tons, a decrease of 3.83%. The national ferrosilicon weekly supply was 106,300 tons [29] - Inventory: The national 60 - enterprise sample's inventory was 77,840 tons, an increase of 7.16%. Inner Mongolia's inventory increased by 6000 tons, while Ningxia's decreased by 200 tons [34] - Upstream: As of December 8, the Ningxia electricity price increased by 2.53%, and the Inner Mongolia electricity price remained unchanged. As of December 11, the domestic market price of semi - coke remained unchanged [38] - Profit: As of December 12, the Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon production cost was 5564 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.20%, and the profit was - 444 yuan/ton, a decrease of 62.04%. Ningxia's production cost was 5665 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the profit was - 565 yuan/ton, unchanged [42] - Downstream: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 31,000 tons week - on - week and 32,700 tons year - on - year. From January to October, China's ferrosilicon exports decreased by 8.85% year - on - year [49]