铁合金

Search documents
硅铁:板块情绪共振,偏弱震荡,锰硅,矿企报价下移,偏弱震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 01:51
2025 年 6 月 13 日 资料来源:钢联、同花顺、国泰君安期货研究 硅铁:板块情绪共振,偏弱震荡 锰硅:矿企报价下移,偏弱震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园(联系人) 期货从业资格号:F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁2507 | 5276 | -22 | 25,220 | 60,785 | | 期 货 | 硅铁2509 | 5166 | -18 | 107,142 | 219,450 | | | 锰硅2507 | 5418 | -54 | 7,773 | 24,246 | | | 锰硅2509 | 5426 | -60 | 203,695 | 460,268 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁 ...
宝城期货:锰硅震荡寻底
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-06-13 00:43
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that manganese silicon prices have rebounded from low levels due to improved market sentiment driven by the rebound in coking coal prices and positive developments in US-China trade negotiations [1][2] - The main factors contributing to the recovery of manganese silicon prices include the recent rebound in coking coal prices and the easing of trade risks between the US and China, which has led to a restoration of market expectations [2][3] Group 2 - Despite the price rebound, the fundamental demand for manganese silicon remains weak, with steel production gradually declining as the traditional off-season approaches, leading to a decrease in manganese silicon demand [2][3] - As of June 6, the operating rate of 247 steel mills was reported at 83.56%, with a capacity utilization rate of 90.65%, both showing a continuous decline over four weeks [2] - The weekly demand for manganese silicon from the five major steel products has decreased to 12.58 million tons, marking a 0.86% decline from the previous week and a 3.82% drop compared to the same period last year, indicating weak demand [2] Group 3 - The cost of manganese silicon is also under pressure due to declining prices of manganese ore and coke, with the potential for further cost reductions as electricity prices in major production areas are expected to decrease [4] - Manganese ore inventory at ports has increased to 4.202 million tons, reflecting a weak supply-demand balance, while the latest weekly delivery of manganese ore reached 677,800 tons, the second-highest level this year [4] Group 4 - The supply of manganese silicon remains low but stable, with the operating rate of 187 independent manganese silicon enterprises reported at 35.03%, marking a significant decline from previous highs [5][6] - The average daily output of manganese silicon has dropped to 24,555 tons, with the lowest operating rate recorded at 33.60%, the lowest since September 2022 [5] Group 5 - Despite the current low supply, high inventory levels at enterprises and the introduction of new production capacity may lead to an oversupply situation, limiting the positive impact of supply on prices [6] - Overall, while manganese silicon prices have seen a rebound due to improved market sentiment, the underlying supply-demand dynamics and declining costs suggest limited upward momentum, with prices expected to continue fluctuating at low levels [6]
永安期货铁合金早报-20250612
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 05:15
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy on June 12, 2025, the latest prices of Ningxia 72 and Inner Mongolia 72 are 5000 and 5100 respectively, with daily changes of 0 and -50, and weekly changes of -130 and -100 [2]. - The export prices of Tianjin 72 and Tianjin 75 silicon ferroalloy are 1055 and 1095 US dollars respectively, with no daily or weekly changes [2]. - For silicon manganese, the latest prices of Inner Mongolia 6517, Ningxia 6517, Guangxi 6517, Guizhou 6517, and Yunnan 6517 are 5430, 5380, 5500, 5450, and 5450 respectively, with weekly changes of 30, 80, 50, 50, and 50 [2]. Supply - The production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including monthly and weekly production and capacity utilization rates in different regions [4][5]. - The production data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are also shown, including weekly production and enterprise - wide capacity utilization rates [7]. Demand - The demand - related data such as the estimated production of crude steel in China, the production of stainless - steel crude steel, and the demand for silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are provided [5][8]. Inventory - The inventory data of 60 sample silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are given, including weekly inventory in different regions, warehouse receipts, and effective forecasts [6]. - The inventory data of silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including daily warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China [8]. Cost and Profit - The cost - profit - related data of silicon ferroalloy from 2021 - 2025 are provided, including electricity prices in different regions, the market price of blue charcoal, and the production cost and profit in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia [6]. - The cost - profit - related data of silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are shown, including the price of raw materials such as manganese ore, and the profit in different regions [7][8].
硅铁:主产地区减产仍存,宽幅震荡,锰硅,海外矿企报价下移,偏弱震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 01:50
2025 年 6 月 12 日 品 研 究 硅铁:主产地区减产仍存,宽幅震荡 锰硅:海外矿企报价下移,偏弱震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com | 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | | 硅铁2507 | 5298 | 6 | 61,627 | 69,305 | | 期 货 | 硅铁2509 | 5184 | 10 | 159,669 | 217,041 | | | 锰硅2507 | 5472 | -58 | 44,991 | 27,893 | | | 锰硅2509 | 5486 | -56 | 245,672 | 448,864 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | | 硅铁:FeSi75-B:汇总价格:内蒙 | | 5100 | -50.0 | 元/吨 | | 现 货 | 硅锰:FeMn65Si17:内蒙 | | 5430 | - | 元/吨 | | | 锰 ...
黑色产业链日报-20250611
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 12:50
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The ongoing China-US talks have improved market sentiment, leading to a slight rebound in the futures market. However, the traditional off-season for steel has arrived, with weakening demand and abundant raw material supply, suggesting limited fundamental support for the rebound [3]. - The current fundamentals of iron ore are acceptable, but future concerns are emerging. Supply is increasing while demand is expected to decline, which may lead to slower inventory depletion and potential accumulation [19]. - The relaxation of China-US relations has boosted market sentiment, causing coking coal to rebound due to previous overselling. Coke has also followed, but its rebound is weaker due to downstream price cuts. The demand for coking coal and coke has rigid support in the short term [34]. - Short - term market sentiment for ferroalloys has improved, but the long - term trend remains weak due to factors such as steel mill price pressure, cost decline, and the off - season for steel demand. However, the high - inventory issue is gradually weakening, and the supply is at a low level [51]. - The production of soda ash is expected to gradually recover, and the market remains in a long - term oversupply situation. The demand is stable overall, but the photovoltaic sector may return to an oversupply pattern [65]. - The glass market has a nearly 10% decline in cumulative apparent demand. To balance supply and demand in the second half of the year, the daily melting volume needs to decline. The current valuation is low, but the short - term fundamentals and cost support are weak [93]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price Data**: On June 11, 2025, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts increased slightly compared to the previous day. The basis and spreads of different contracts also showed certain changes [4][8]. - **Market Situation**: The off - season has led to a decline in some steel demand, such as a significant decrease in the outbound volume of building materials in Hangzhou and inventory accumulation in multiple regions for hot - rolled coils. Although steel mills maintain production through product switching, the supply of raw materials is abundant, and the rebound of the futures market lacks strong fundamental support [3]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On June 11, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore futures contracts increased compared to the previous day, while the basis decreased. The daily and weekly changes in different contracts varied [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global iron ore shipments have increased significantly, and the demand is expected to decline. The production of five major steel products has not decreased significantly, but the demand has a seasonal decline, increasing the inventory depletion pressure [19][28]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Price Data**: On June 11, 2025, the coking coal and coke futures prices, basis, and spreads showed different degrees of changes. The coking coal prices rebounded more strongly, and the coking profit on the futures market shrank [35]. - **Market Situation**: The relaxation of China - US relations has driven the rebound of coking coal and coke. The current basis is in a reasonable range, and the demand for coking coal and coke has rigid support in the short term [34]. Ferroalloys - **Price Data**: On June 11, 2025, the prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese spot and futures contracts, as well as their basis and spreads, showed different changes. The cost of ferrosilicon and the prices of raw materials for ferromanganese also changed to some extent [52][53]. - **Market Situation**: Short - term market sentiment has improved, but the long - term trend is still weak. The high - inventory issue is gradually weakening, and the supply is at a low level, with the cost expected to decline [51]. Soda Ash - **Price Data**: On June 11, 2025, the prices of soda ash futures contracts decreased slightly, and the basis and spreads also changed. The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained stable [67][68]. - **Market Situation**: The production of soda ash is expected to recover, and the market is in a long - term oversupply situation. The demand is stable overall, but the photovoltaic sector may return to an oversupply pattern [65]. Glass - **Price Data**: On June 11, 2025, the prices of glass futures contracts showed different trends, and the basis and spreads also changed. The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions varied [94][97]. - **Market Situation**: The cumulative apparent demand for glass has declined nearly 10%. To balance supply and demand in the second half of the year, the daily melting volume needs to decline. The current valuation is low, but the short - term fundamentals and cost support are weak [93].
黑色商品日报(2025年6月11日)-20250611
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 05:26
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market, including rebar and hot - rolled coils, is expected to be in low - level consolidation. The rebar spot has no obvious supply - demand contradiction, but it has entered the consumption off - season, and the market has weak expectations for future supply and demand. The rebar futures 2510 contract closed at 2974 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.23% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 31,500 lots in positions [1]. - The iron ore market is predicted to show an oscillatory consolidation trend. The Australian iron ore shipments have increased significantly, while Brazilian shipments have declined from a high level. The global iron ore shipments have increased, and the iron ore futures i2509 contract closed at 698.5 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan/ton or 0.64% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 1,000 lots in positions [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to oscillate. For coking coal, some mines in the producing areas have stopped production, and the coke has been reduced in price three times, squeezing the profits of coking enterprises. The coking coal 2509 contract closed at 785 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton or 0.64% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 10,312 lots in positions. For coke, the inventory of coking enterprises has continued to accumulate, and the steel mills' procurement is cautious. The coke 2509 contract closed at 1349 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.75% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 255 lots in positions [1]. - The ferrosilicon - manganese market is likely to be in low - level oscillation. The weekly output of ferrosilicon - manganese has increased slightly for three consecutive weeks, and the supply, demand, and cost support are all insufficient. The ferrosilicon - manganese futures closed at 5542 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 5172 lots in positions to 436,200 lots [1]. - The ferrosilicon market is expected to oscillate. An Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon plant has stopped a 33000kva furnace, and the steel procurement is ongoing. The ferrosilicon futures closed at 5174 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 5651 lots in positions to 218,100 lots [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel Products**: The rebar futures showed a narrow - range oscillation, and the spot price was stable with a slight decline. The market has entered the consumption off - season, and the expected supply - demand situation is weak. The futures price of rebar 2510 contract was 2974 yuan/ton, down 0.23% from the previous trading day, and the inventory decreased by 31,500 lots. The spot price in Tangshan was 2900 yuan/ton, and in Hangzhou it was 3060 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The national building materials trading volume was 99,800 tons [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures showed an oscillatory consolidation trend. The Australian shipments increased, while Brazilian shipments decreased. The iron ore futures i2509 contract closed at 698.5 yuan/ton, down 0.64% from the previous trading day. The port spot prices decreased, and the 47 - port imported iron ore inventory and steel mills' imported ore inventory continued to decline [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures rose. Some mines in the producing areas stopped production, and the coke was reduced in price three times, squeezing the profits of coking enterprises. The coking coal 2509 contract closed at 785 yuan/ton, up 0.64% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 10,312 lots in positions. The spot price in Lvliang decreased by 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures rose. The downstream steel mills' procurement willingness was low, and the coking enterprises' inventory continued to accumulate. After three price cuts, the coking enterprises' losses increased, and some reduced production. The coke 2509 contract closed at 1349 yuan/ton, up 0.75% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 255 lots in positions. The spot price in Rizhao Port increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Ferrosilicon - Manganese**: The ferrosilicon - manganese futures showed a narrow - range oscillation. The supply has increased slightly for three consecutive weeks, and the demand and cost support are limited. The ferrosilicon - manganese futures closed at 5542 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 5172 lots in positions to 436,200 lots. The market price of 6517 ferrosilicon - manganese was 5380 - 5540 yuan/ton, and the price in Inner Mongolia decreased by 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures rose slightly. An Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon plant stopped a furnace, and the steel procurement is ongoing. The ferrosilicon futures closed at 5174 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 5651 lots in positions to 218,100 lots. The spot price in most regions decreased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The report provides the latest and环比 data of contract spreads for various varieties such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferrosilicon - manganese, and ferrosilicon, including 10 - 1 month, 1 - 5 month spreads, etc [4]. - **Basis**: The latest and环比 data of basis for different varieties are given, like the basis of rebar 10 - contract, hot - rolled coils 10 - contract, etc [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The latest and环比 data of spot prices in different regions for each variety are presented, for example, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou, and the spot price of iron ore PB powder and super - special powder [4]. - **Profits and Spreads**: The latest and环比 data of profits (such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc) are provided [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1主力合约价格**: The report includes charts showing the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferrosilicon - manganese, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [5][7][9][11][14]. - **3.3.2主力合约基差**: Charts display the basis of the main contracts of various varieties over different time periods, such as the basis of rebar RB2010 - RB2510, hot - rolled coils HC2010 - HC2510, etc [16][17][18]. - **3.3.3跨期合约价差**: The report presents charts of the spreads between different contracts of each variety, like the 10 - 01 and 01 - 05 spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coils, etc [24][25][27]. - **3.3.4跨品种合约价差**: Charts show the spreads between different varieties, including the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, etc [39][40][42]. - **3.3.5螺纹钢利润**: Charts display the disk profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit of the rebar main contract from 2020 to 2025 [43][45][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - **邱跃成**: The assistant director of the research institute and the director of black research at Everbright Futures, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, holding multiple industry honors [51]. - **张笑金**: The director of resource product research at Everbright Futures, a trainer for thermal coal at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and has won many industry awards [51]. - **柳浠**: A black researcher at Everbright Futures, with a master's degree in science, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [51]. - **张春杰**: A black researcher at Everbright Futures, with experience in investment companies and spot - futures trading companies, having passed the CFA Level 2 exam [52].
永安期货铁合金早报-20250611
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 02:19
仓单 最新 日变化 周变化 出厂价折盘面 日变化 周变化 现货 盘面 最新 品种 项目 铁合金早报 供应 需求 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁:72%FeSi:出口价格:天津港 (美元/吨) 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁:75%FeSi:出口价格:天津港 (美元/吨) 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -2500 -1500 -500 500 1500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁-硅锰主力合约价差(元/吨) 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 01 ...
专题报告:硅锰价格承压运行,静待硅锰库存消耗
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 00:49
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The silicon-manganese industry has overcapacity, with no significant increase in downstream consumption and high inventory levels, which restricts the upward movement of silicon-manganese prices. Since May, the decline in prices of manganese ore, electricity, and coal has shifted the cost center of silicon-manganese downward. Although there were some disturbances in manganese ore supply from January to May, the manganese ore inventory has recently recovered. All production areas have experienced long - term losses, so attention should be paid to production cuts and inventory changes in silicon-manganese, as well as electricity price changes [3][83]. - Silicon-manganese enterprises in different production areas are suffering losses, and production is gradually decreasing. Monthly production has significantly declined, with May's monthly production dropping to 743,000 tons. The weekly production rate has also gradually decreased, reaching a minimum of 33.6% in May, and weekly production dropping to 162,800 tons [4][85]. - Downstream consumption has weakened, and silicon-manganese inventory still suppresses price increases. As of early June, the consumption of silicon-manganese alloy in the five major steel products decreased by 1.04%. From January to May, production increased year - on - year while consumption decreased, leading to relatively high inventory. The three - link inventory of silicon-manganese remains at a high level compared to the same period in previous years [4][85]. - Raw material prices are weak, and the cost center of silicon-manganese has shifted downward. As of early June, the prices of South African semi - carbonate and Gabonese lump ore dropped to the lowest levels in the same period of previous years. In 2025, with large - scale new energy installations, the prices of traditional energy and electricity have decreased. The settlement electricity price for alloys in the Ningxia production area was adjusted downward in April. From January to April 2025, the cumulative year - on - year import of manganese ore decreased by 6.0%. Although the port manganese ore inventory has recovered recently, the low inventory still deserves market attention [5][86]. Summary According to the Directory I. Silicon-manganese prices are under pressure, and the center of gravity is gradually shifting downward - From January to May 2025, domestic silicon-manganese prices generally showed a "high - then - low" trend. In the context of loose silicon-manganese production capacity, the price center of gravity gradually shifted downward. In mid - to late January, silicon-manganese prices rose significantly due to supply disturbances in manganese ore. After that, as coal prices fell and alloy costs decreased, the market's ability to support prices weakened. From March to May, affected by the US tariff increase and weak market expectations, commodities were under pressure, and silicon-manganese prices continued to decline [14]. II. Silicon-manganese enterprises in different production areas are suffering losses, and production is gradually decreasing - From January to May 2025, all production areas experienced long - term losses, including Inner Mongolia and Ningxia, which have relatively low production costs. Alloy enterprises reduced production through measures such as maintenance. The weekly production rate of silicon-manganese gradually decreased, reaching a minimum of 33.6%, and weekly production dropped to 162,800 tons. Monthly production also decreased significantly, with May's monthly production dropping to 743,000 tons. From January to May 2025, the cumulative production of silicon-manganese alloy was 4.139 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. Production was relatively high in March at 899,000 tons and then gradually decreased [17][20][32]. III. Downstream consumption has weakened, and silicon-manganese inventory still suppresses price increases - The downstream demand for silicon-manganese is mainly concentrated in steel consumption, especially in the five major steel products. As of early June, the demand for silicon-manganese in the five major steel products decreased by about 1.04%. The inventory of sample enterprises is higher than the same period last year. Although the number of days of available inventory for downstream steel enterprises is at a low level, the cumulative number of registered warehouse receipts + valid forecast warehouse receipts has reached over 1 million, and the three - link inventory of silicon-manganese remains at a high level compared to the same period in previous years [36][43][52]. IV. Raw material prices are weak, and the cost center of silicon-manganese has shifted downward - The cost of silicon-manganese mainly depends on the prices of manganese ore, electricity, and coal. As of early June, the prices of South African semi - carbonate and Gabonese lump ore dropped to historically low levels. From January to April 2025, the cumulative year - on - year import of manganese ore decreased by 6.0%. The inventory days of manganese ore for alloy enterprises remain relatively low. As of early June, the inventory days of manganese ore for alloy plants across the country have been reduced to 12.4 days. In May 2025, while manganese ore prices were at a low level, the electricity prices and coal prices in production areas also decreased. The settlement electricity price for alloys in the Ningxia production area decreased in April, causing a significant decline in silicon-manganese prices [54][55][76]. V. Conclusion - The silicon-manganese industry has overcapacity, with no significant increase in downstream consumption and high inventory levels, which restricts the upward movement of silicon-manganese prices. Since May, the decline in prices of manganese ore, electricity, and coal has shifted the cost center of silicon-manganese downward. Although there were some disturbances in manganese ore supply from January to May, the manganese ore inventory has recently recovered. All production areas have experienced long - term losses, so attention should be paid to production cuts and inventory changes in silicon-manganese, as well as electricity price changes. In the current situation, although prices are relatively low, cautious operations are still required until there are significant decreases in production and inventory. Attention should be paid to changes in silicon-manganese production, inventory, and manganese ore supply [83][85][87].
【工业硅】利空拖累对冲盼涨情绪,弱平衡究竟何时能否“破局”?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-10 14:34
Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon futures market is experiencing slight fluctuations, with a minor increase in prices, but overall supply pressure remains significant, leading to potential downward price movements in the future [1][3][7]. Market Performance - On June 10, the main contract for industrial silicon closed at 7415, up by 60 from the previous day, reflecting a 0.82% increase, although the closing price was still down by 60 compared to the previous trading day [1]. - The total trading volume for the main contract was 440,221 lots, with an open interest of 155,627 lots, and the current total open interest stands at 639,121 lots [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent price recovery in the futures market has provided some confidence to the otherwise sluggish spot market, but the overall supply situation remains loose, with factories planning to resume production, which may increase supply pressure [3][7]. - The reduction in electricity prices during the flood season is expected to weaken cost support, potentially leading to further price declines as some factories may lower prices to alleviate pressure [3][7]. Raw Material Trends - The market for raw materials such as polysilicon and organosilicon remains stable, with no significant changes observed [5]. Future Considerations - The stability of industrial silicon prices is fragile, and market participants should closely monitor several factors: 1. The progress and scale of factory resumption [7] 2. The extent of electricity price reductions during the flood season [7] 3. The sustainability of the futures market rebound [7] 4. The resilience of downstream demand in key application areas [7] 5. The actual progress of inventory digestion in both social and factory stocks [7]
永安期货铁合金早报-20250610
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 02:52
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - Not provided in the content Summary by Directory Price - For silicon ferroalloy on June 10, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 was 5100 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 80 yuan; the latest price of Inner Mongolia 72 was 5150 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 100 yuan; the latest price of Qinghai 72 was 5100 yuan, with a daily decrease of 50 yuan and a weekly decrease of 100 yuan; the latest price of Shaanxi 72 was 5100 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 50 yuan; the latest price of Shaanxi 75 was 5750 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 50 yuan; the latest price of Jiangsu 72 was 5280 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 200 yuan; the latest price of Tianjin 72 was 5400 yuan, with a daily decrease of 100 yuan and no weekly change; the latest export price of Tianjin 72 was 1055 US dollars, with no daily or weekly change; the latest export price of Tianjin 75 was 1095 US dollars, with no daily or weekly change [2]. - For silicon manganese on June 10, 2025, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 was 5450 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50 yuan; the latest price of Ningxia 6517 was 5380 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 80 yuan; the latest price of Guangxi 6517 was 5500 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50 yuan; the latest price of Guizhou 6517 was 5450 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50 yuan; the latest price of Yunnan 6517 was 5450 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50 yuan; the latest price of Guangxi 6014 was 5100 yuan, with no daily or weekly change; the latest price of Ningxia 6517 among traders was 5380 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 80 yuan; the latest price of Jiangsu 6517 among traders was 5540 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 90 yuan [2]. Supply - The monthly production volume of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 is presented, along with the weekly production volume of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China (with a production capacity accounting for 95%) during the same period; the monthly production capacity utilization rates of 136 silicon ferroalloy production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025 are also shown [5]. - The weekly production volume of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 is given, as well as the monthly procurement volume and price of silicon manganese 6517 by Hebei Iron and Steel Group during the same period [7]. Demand - The monthly estimated and revised production volume of crude steel in China from 2021 - 2025 is provided, along with the monthly production volume of stainless - steel crude steel in China during the same period; the monthly procurement volume of FeSi75 - B by Hebei Iron and Steel Group from 2021 - 2025 is also presented [5]. - The monthly demand volume of silicon manganese in China (according to Steel Union's data) from 2021 - 2025 is shown, along with the monthly export volume of silicon manganese in China during the same period [8]. Inventory - The weekly inventory of 60 sample silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 is presented, including the weekly inventory in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi; the daily total number of silicon ferroalloy warehouse receipts on CZCE from 2021 - 2025, the daily valid forecast, and the daily sum of warehouse receipts and valid forecast are also given; the monthly average available inventory days of silicon ferroalloy in East China, South China, and the North Region from 2021 - 2025 are shown [6]. - The daily total number of silicon manganese warehouse receipts on CZCE from 2021 - 2025, the daily valid forecast, and the daily sum of warehouse receipts and valid inventory are presented; the monthly average available inventory days of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 and the weekly inventory of 63 sample silicon manganese enterprises in China during the same period are also shown [8]. Cost and Profit - The electricity prices of ferroalloys in Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia from 2021 - 2025 are presented, along with the market price of blue carbon small materials in Shaanxi, the operating rate of blue carbon in China, the production gross profit of blue carbon in China, the market price of 98% silica in the Northwest Region, and the market price of 70% Fe iron oxide scale in Shijiazhuang; the production cost of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia from 2021 - 2025, the profit of Ningxia silicon ferroalloy converted to the main contract, the spot profit of Ningxia silicon ferroalloy, the export profit of 75 silicon ferroalloy, and the profit of Inner Mongolia silicon ferroalloy converted to the main contract are also shown [6]. - The production cost - related prices of silicon manganese, such as the ex - factory price of chemical coke in Ordos, the aggregated prices of various manganese ores at Tianjin Port and Qinzhou Port, are presented; the profit of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the North Region, and the South Region (according to Steel Union's data) from 2021 - 2025, the profit of Guangxi silicon manganese converted to the main contract, and the profit of Ningxia silicon manganese converted to the contract are also shown [7][8].