| 基本信息 6 | 法律诉讼 | 经营风险 | | --- | --- | --- | | 工商信息 ● | | | | 工商信息 历史工商信息0 | | | | 企业名称 | 中铝绿材（文山）铝基新材料有限公司 | | | 法定代表人 | 姚 姚建军 怒关联企业 5 | 登记状态 ② | | | | 成立日期 | | 统一社会信用代码 ② | 91532601MAK51KH227 | 注册资本 2 | | 工商注册号 | 532621000254881 | 纳税人识别号 ② | | 营业期限 | 2026-01-05 至 无固定期限 | 纳税人资质 | | 企业类型 | 有限责任公司(法人独资) | 行业 | | 参保人数 - | | 英文名称 | | 登记机关 | 文山市市场监督管理局 | 注册地址 ② | | 经营范围 ② | 一般项目：常用有色金属冶炼；有色金属铸造；有色金属压延加工 | | | | 售。 (除依法须经批准的项目外,凭营业执照依法自主开展经营活 | | | 都在用的商业查询工具 | 查公司 | 查老板 查关系 查风险 | | 国家中小企业发展子基金旗下机构 | | 中铝绿材（文山）铝 ...

天眼查工商信息显示，近日，中铝绿材(文山)铝基新材料有限公司成立，法定代表人为姚建军，注册资 本2.5亿人民币，经营范围为常用有色金属冶炼、有色金属铸造、有色金属压延加工、有色金属合金制 造、货物进出口、技术进出口、有色金属合金销售、高性能有色金属及合金材料销售。股东信息显示， 该公司由中国铝业（601600）旗下中铝(云南)绿色先进铝基材料有限公司全资持股。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The completion of the "Carbonyl Tailings Platinum Group Metals Efficient Separation and Extraction Technology Industrialization Project" marks a significant breakthrough for Jinchuan Copper Precious Metals in the efficient recycling of precious metal resources and green low-carbon development, enhancing the strategic resource autonomy and modernization of the industrial chain [1][3]. Group 1 - The project is a major technological transformation initiative for Jinchuan Group in 2024, with a total investment of 127 million yuan, aimed at efficiently separating and extracting scarce platinum group metals from complex carbonyl tailings [3]. - The project commenced construction in September 2024 and was completed on December 28, 2025, overcoming core technical challenges in the recovery of platinum, palladium, rhodium, ruthenium, and iridium [3]. - The simultaneous construction of the "Precious Metal Flue Gas Centralized Treatment Project" represents a commitment to environmental sustainability, with a planned investment of 49.96 million yuan, starting in April 2025 and completing the main engineering by December [3]. Group 2 - During construction, the project faced technical challenges across metallurgy, construction, chemical, and electromechanical installation sectors, along with tight schedules and heavy tasks [5]. - The construction team demonstrated a strong sense of responsibility and mission, optimizing design plans and strictly controlling process quality to ensure high-quality completion on time [5]. - Jinchuan Copper Precious Metals aims to leverage the technological advantages of the new production line to become a benchmark for efficient resource recovery and green production in the industry, contributing to the group's goal of becoming a world-class enterprise [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant upward movement in the nickel sector, with companies like Zhongwei Co., Ltd. experiencing a rise of over 15% [1] - Other companies in the nickel concept, such as Greeenmei, are approaching their daily limit increase, indicating strong market interest and activity [1] - Additional companies like Weiming Environmental Protection, Huayou Cobalt, Hanrui Cobalt, and Shengtun Mining also showed notable gains, reflecting a broader positive trend in the industry [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For copper, the domestic market's downstream purchasing willingness has significantly declined, but there is support when the price approaches the downstream's psychological level. The continuous high export of domestic electrolytic copper has made the domestic inventory accumulation rate not obvious. In the future, attention should be paid to the domestic risk preference and the Fed's actions, as well as changes in the New York spread and non - US high premiums [1]. - For aluminum, the domestic apparent demand and terminal consumption are showing signs of weakness, and the basis is at a multi - year low. However, the low inventory and strong expectations can support the current high price [1]. - For zinc, the domestic fundamentals are poor, but there is a phased reduction in supply at the end of the year, so the price may not fall deeply. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign markets, and positive arbitrage opportunities in the month - spread [2]. - For nickel, the short - term real - world fundamentals are weak, but the policy and fundamentals are in a more intense game due to Indonesia's nickel quota plan [3][4]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals are generally weak, but the news of Indonesia's nickel quota reduction has driven a short - term price rebound [7]. - For lead, it is expected that the lead price at home and abroad will remain volatile next week, and attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [8][9]. - For tin, the short - term supply may fluctuate greatly, and there is a risk of marginal over - supply in the long - term. The fundamentals are showing signs of marginal weakening, and it can be a long - position allocation for non - ferrous metals in the first quarter [12]. - For industrial silicon, in the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate with costs, and in the long - term, it will mainly oscillate at the cycle bottom [15][16]. - For lithium carbonate, the downstream positive electrode production is less than expected, but the new energy vehicle subsidy policy has provided support for the price. The raw material supply is tight, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs [20]. Group 3: Summary of Each Metal Copper - From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased by 85, the scrap - refined copper spread increased by 860, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2,989 [1]. - In the second half of this week, the domestic market was closed for holidays, and the overseas copper price slightly corrected. The downstream's willingness to receive goods has declined significantly due to high prices [1]. Aluminum - From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 600, the domestic alumina price decreased by 7, and the aluminum LME inventory decreased by 2,500 [1]. - In November, the import of primary aluminum decreased significantly, and the export of primary aluminum, aluminum products increased. The domestic apparent demand is weaker than previously expected [1]. Zinc - From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 370, the spot import profit decreased by 145.98, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 75 [2]. - The LME zinc 0 - 3M backwardation maintained a shock this week, which alleviated the overseas supply - demand contradiction. The supply of domestic zinc ore is tightening, and the demand is seasonally weak [2]. Nickel - From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 5,100, the spot import return decreased by 853.03, and the LME inventory increased by 192 [3]. - The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly, the demand was weak, and the inventory accumulation slowed down in China and increased slightly in the LME [4]. Stainless Steel - From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil increased by 50, and the price of waste stainless steel increased by 50 [7]. - The steel mill's production is at a high level, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory is at a high level. The Indonesian policy has a certain motivation to support the price [7]. Lead - From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the spot premium decreased by 30, the spot import return decreased by 196.43, and the LME inventory decreased by 10,925 [8]. - The lead price rose with the macro - environment this week. The supply and demand are in a state of mismatch, but the recovery of recycled lead production has alleviated the contradiction [9]. Tin - From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the spot import return decreased by 8,480.77, the LME C - 3M decreased by 35, and the LME inventory increased by 5 [12]. - The tin price fluctuated and declined this week. The supply may be adjusted greatly in the short - term, and there is a risk of marginal over - supply in the long - term [12]. Industrial Silicon - From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 170, the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 170, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 456 [15]. - A large factory in Xinjiang reduced production this week. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are approaching balance, and the price will fluctuate with costs in the short - term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long - term [15][16]. Lithium Carbonate - From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 8,000, the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 7,250, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 2,860 [20]. - The downstream positive electrode production is less than expected, but the new energy vehicle subsidy policy has supported the price. The raw material supply is tight, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs [20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives trend intensities for various commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment sentiment: - Strongly Bullish (Trend Intensity = 2): Container Freight Index (European Line) [127] - Bullish (Trend Intensity = 1): Gold, Silver, Copper, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy, Nickel, Carbonate Lithium, Rubber, Synthetic Rubber, Caustic Soda, Pulp, Methanol, Urea, Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil [6][10][13][16][19][22][25][29][62][65][74][80][87][92][116] - Neutral (Trend Intensity = 0): Iron Ore, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Silicon Ferrosilicon, Manganese Silicon, Log, Paraxylene, PTA, MEG, LLDPE, PP, Glass, Styrene, LPG, Propylene, PVC, Short - Fiber, Bottle Chip, Offset Printing Paper, Pure Benzene, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Soybean Meal, Soybean, Corn, Cotton, Egg, Live Pig, Peanut [36][40][45][53][57][68][71][84][96][103][111][128][131][135][139][145][148][157][161][164][170] - Bearish (Trend Intensity = - 1): Sugar [155] Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures, including their current market trends, influencing factors, and future outlooks. It emphasizes the importance of considering both macro - economic and industry - specific factors when making investment decisions in the commodity futures market. For example, geopolitical events, policy changes, and supply - demand dynamics all play significant roles in determining commodity prices. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded. With geopolitical uncertainties such as the Trump administration's discussion of obtaining Greenland, gold prices are supported [6]. - **Silver**: A new high is yet to be broken. Market sentiment and macro - economic factors are influencing its price movement [6]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Driven by computing power demand, the price is strong. Nvidia's positive outlook on data - center chip revenue and China's copper import data contribute to the upward trend [10]. - **Zinc**: Running strongly. Price increases are accompanied by changes in trading volume and inventory [13]. - **Lead**: LME inventory reduction supports the price. Geopolitical news and market sentiment also have an impact [16]. - **Tin**: Trading in a range. Supply - demand balance and macro - economic factors are key considerations [19]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillating strongly. Alumina has rebounded significantly, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [22]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between real - world pressure and cycle - change narratives, resulting in wide - range fluctuations. Indonesia's policies on nickel production and exports are important influencing factors [25]. - **Stainless Steel**: The real - world fundamentals are dragging down the market, and the disk is mainly influenced by Indonesia's policies [25]. Energy - Related Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The market is worried about long - term supply surplus, and geopolitical tensions have not intensified, leading to a decline in international oil prices [58]. - **Fuel Oil**: Turning strong, short - term upward movement is more likely. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the upward trend, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels has narrowed slightly [116]. Chemical Commodities - **PTA**: In a high - level oscillating market. Supply - demand balance and cost factors are important [57]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and there is still pressure in the medium term. Supply and demand in the polyester industry and inventory levels are key factors [57]. - **Methanol**: Short - term upward trend. Geopolitical events and inventory expectations are influencing the price [87]. - **Urea**: The oscillation center is moving up. Agricultural demand expectations and supply - demand dynamics are important [92]. - **Styrene**: Short - term oscillation. Market valuation and export volume are influencing factors [96]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has changed little. Supply and demand in the soda ash industry are relatively stable [48]. - **LPG**: The import cost is firm, and attention should be paid to the realization of negative feedback. PDH and other related industry data are important [103]. - **Propylene**: Demand is stable, and the spot price is slightly rising [103]. - **PVC**: Short - term upward trend, but the upside space may be limited. High production and inventory levels are constraints [111]. Agricultural Commodities - **Palm Oil**: Fundamental drivers are weak, and attention should be paid to macro - economic sentiment [139]. - **Soybean Oil**: Trading in a range, and attention should be paid to spread opportunities [139]. - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight US soybean prices closed lower, and Dalian soybean meal may oscillate. US soybean supply and demand reports and China's soybean imports are important factors [145]. - **Soybean**: Oscillating. Market sentiment and supply - demand balance are key considerations [145]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. Price changes in different regions and import - related news are important [148]. - **Sugar**: Trading at a low level. Production and consumption data in major producing countries and import policies are important [152]. - **Cotton**: Maintaining a strong trend. Spot trading and downstream demand in the cotton industry are important [157]. - **Egg**: Sentiment in the far - month contracts has weakened. Supply - demand balance and feed prices are key factors [161]. - **Live Pig**: There is still inventory accumulation behavior. Spot prices and futures contract prices are changing, and inventory registration is also an important factor [164]. - **Peanut**: Oscillating. Spot market conditions in different regions are relatively stable [170]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The 02 contract is making up for the premium, and for far - month contracts, attention should be paid to premium - making and geopolitical events [118]. - **Log**: Trading at a low level. Market supply and demand and macro - economic factors are influencing the price [53].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The marginal easing direction of liquidity in the US financial market remains unchanged, domestic policies offer mild stimulus, and geopolitical disturbances enhance the importance of strategic resources, so the sentiment is still relatively favorable. The tight supply of copper mines and US tariff expectations strongly support copper prices, but as prices rise, downstream demand is squeezed out, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. Overall, the upward trend of copper prices is expected to slow down [2]. - Amid overseas geopolitical factors, precious metals and copper prices are expected to remain high, which will still drive up aluminum prices. Although high aluminum prices suppress downstream开工, the relatively low overseas aluminum inventory and supply - side disturbances support aluminum prices, which are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly [5]. - The visible inventory of lead ore has increased, the operating rate of primary lead remains relatively high, the scrap lead inventory continues to decline, the smelting profit of recycled lead is still at a relatively high level in the past six months, and the operating rate of recycled smelting has slightly rebounded. The operating rate of downstream battery enterprises has declined marginally, and the domestic social inventory of lead ingots has stopped falling and stabilized. Currently, domestic lead prices are approaching the upper edge of the oscillation range, with a high concentration of long - position funds. In the short term, the sentiment in the non - ferrous sector is high, and lead prices are expected to oscillate strongly [8]. - The visible inventory of zinc ore has declined, the TC of zinc concentrate has declined again but at a slower pace, and the smelting profit of zinc has stopped falling and stabilized. The total domestic inventory of zinc ingots has decreased. After a large number of registered warrants appeared on the LME, the Shanghai - London ratio has continued to rise. After the winter stockpiling ends, the domestic supply of zinc ore may become more abundant. In the double - easing cycle, the sentiment in the non - ferrous metal sector is mostly bullish. Zinc prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation in the medium term and run strongly in the short term following the non - ferrous sector [10]. - Although the current demand in the tin market is weak and there is an expectation of improved supply, with low downstream inventory, the bargaining power is limited. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate following market risk preferences. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - Currently, the surplus pressure of nickel is still large, but due to Indonesia's claim to reduce RKAB quotas and the proposed tax on cobalt elements, the market's bearish sentiment has weakened. The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [14]. - On Tuesday, the market environment was bullish, and non - ferrous and precious metal - related varieties rose significantly. There were occasional disturbances in the supply news of lithium carbonate. Although the substantial impact was limited, the bullish sentiment was high, and the upward trend continued. It is recommended to wait and see or make light - position attempts. Pay attention to the market atmosphere, futures positions, and seat changes [18]. - After the rainy season, the shipments from Guinea are gradually recovering, and with the resumption of production in the AXIS mine, the ore price is expected to oscillate downward. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the cost - performance of chasing long positions is not high. If there is no actual production reduction, one can wait for an opportunity to short near - month contracts at high prices [21]. - At the end of December, driven by the news of Indonesia's RKAB plan for 2026 to set a nickel ore quota of about 250 million tons, nickel prices drove stainless steel prices to continue to strengthen. In the short term, the improvement in policy expectations promotes the rise of raw material prices and accelerates inventory reduction, providing fundamental support for the current market. If the supply quota of nickel ore is clearly tightened in the future, prices may rise further. It is recommended to consider going long at low prices and closely monitor the actual implementation of policies [24]. - The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively strong, and with continuous supply - side disturbances, there is strong price support, while demand is relatively average. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate strongly [27]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Quotes**: Offshore RMB appreciated, the domestic equity market rose, and copper prices continued to rise. On January 6, LME copper 3M closed up 1.28% to $13,254/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 104,600 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 3,525 tons to 146,075 tons, mainly from Asia. The proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and Cash/3M maintained a premium. The daily warrants of SHFE increased by 0.3 tons to 93,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai shifted to a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the futures, and the trading was poor due to the rising price. The spot in Guangdong had a premium of 15 yuan/ton to the futures, the inventory increased month - on - month, and downstream consumption weakened. The loss of SHFE copper spot imports narrowed to about 800 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference widened to 6,100 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The marginal easing direction of liquidity in the US financial market remains unchanged, domestic policies offer mild stimulus, and geopolitical disturbances enhance the importance of strategic resources, so the sentiment is still relatively favorable. The tight supply of copper mines and US tariff expectations strongly support copper prices, but as prices rise, downstream demand is squeezed out, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. Overall, the upward trend of copper prices is expected to slow down. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract on January 7 is 102,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME copper 3M is $13,000 - 13,500/ton [2]. Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: Aluminum prices continued to be strong. On January 6, LME aluminum closed up 1.41% to $3,133/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 24,695 yuan/ton. The position of the SHFE aluminum weighted contract increased by 34,000 to 746,000 lots, and the futures warrants increased by 0.1 tons to 84,000 tons. The domestic inventory of aluminum ingots in three regions increased slightly, and the inventory of aluminum rods increased slightly. The processing fee of aluminum rods continued to decline, and the market was in a wait - and - see mood. The spot of electrolytic aluminum in East China had a discount of 220 yuan/ton to the futures, and downstream procurement was cautious. LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.3 tons to 504,000 tons, the proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and Cash/3M maintained a discount [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Amid overseas geopolitical factors, precious metals and copper prices are expected to remain high, which will still drive up aluminum prices. Although high aluminum prices suppress downstream开工, the relatively low overseas aluminum inventory and supply - side disturbances support aluminum prices, which are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract on January 7 is 24,100 - 25,000 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME aluminum 3M is $3,090 - 3,170/ton [5]. Lead - **Market Quotes**: On Tuesday, the SHFE lead index closed up 0.74% to 17,532 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 101,100 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, LME lead 3S rose by $13 to $2,033/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 178,700 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,350 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,225 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 125 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 13,500 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 175 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 30 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 236,900 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 74,400 tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was - $45.52/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $106.8/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio of the disk was 1.238, and the profit and loss of lead ingot imports was 471.61 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory increased by 1,500 tons to 18,900 tons [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of lead ore has increased, the operating rate of primary lead remains relatively high, the scrap lead inventory continues to decline, the smelting profit of recycled lead is still at a relatively high level in the past six months, and the operating rate of recycled smelting has slightly rebounded. The operating rate of downstream battery enterprises has declined marginally, and the domestic social inventory of lead ingots has stopped falling and stabilized. Currently, domestic lead prices are approaching the upper edge of the oscillation range, with a high concentration of long - position funds. In the short term, the sentiment in the non - ferrous sector is high, and lead prices are expected to oscillate strongly [8]. Zinc - **Market Quotes**: On Tuesday, the SHFE zinc index closed up 2.01% to 24,328 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 230,200 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, LME zinc 3S rose by $66 to $3,238.5/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 231,300 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,340 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was 110 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was 30 yuan/ton, the Guangdong basis was 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread was 100 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 40,800 tons, the domestic Shanghai - area basis was 110 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 20 yuan/ton. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 105,900 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 7,900 tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was - $36.3/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $58/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio of the disk was 1.081, and the profit and loss of zinc ingot imports was - 2,244.78 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots increased by 5,300 tons to 114,000 tons [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of zinc ore has declined, the TC of zinc concentrate has declined again but at a slower pace, and the smelting profit of zinc has stopped falling and stabilized. The total domestic inventory of zinc ingots has decreased. After a large number of registered warrants appeared on the LME, the Shanghai - London ratio has continued to rise. After the winter stockpiling ends, the domestic supply of zinc ore may become more abundant. In the double - easing cycle, the sentiment in the non - ferrous metal sector is mostly bullish. Zinc prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation in the medium term and run strongly in the short term following the non - ferrous sector [10]. Tin - **Market Quotes**: On January 6, 2026, the closing price of the SHFE tin main contract was 348,820 yuan/ton, up 4.32% from the previous day. In terms of supply, the operating conditions of tin ingot smelters in Jiangxi and Yunnan were generally stable at a high level. Specifically, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained at 87.09%, basically the same as last week. However, the tin ore processing fee in Yunnan was still at a low level, and the shortage of raw materials for smelting enterprises still existed, with insufficient further upward momentum. In Jiangxi, due to a significant reduction in scrap, the supply of crude tin was insufficient, and the output of refined tin continued to be at a low level. In terms of demand, the downstream consumer electronics demand entered the traditional off - season at the end of the year, but supported by orders from emerging fields such as new - energy vehicles and AI servers, the operating rate of tin solder enterprises remained stable. According to Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network data, the output of tin solder of sample enterprises in November increased by 0.95% month - on - month, and the operating rate increased slightly by 0.69% compared with October. In the spot market, downstream solder and electronic enterprises mostly adopted a low - inventory strategy, and the purchasing willingness was weak. In terms of inventory, tin inventory increased for three consecutive weeks. As of December 31, 2025, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 9,309 tons, a decrease of 1,058 tons from the previous Friday [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the current demand in the tin market is weak and there is an expectation of improved supply, with low downstream inventory, the bargaining power is limited. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate following market risk preferences. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for overseas LME tin is $39,000 - 43,000/ton [12]. Nickel - **Market Quotes**: On January 6, nickel prices rose significantly. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 139,800 yuan/ton, up 4.25% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium of each brand was relatively strong. The average premium of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was 600 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 8,750 yuan/ton, up 1,350 yuan/ton from the previous day. In terms of cost, nickel ore prices remained stable. The arrival price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red - laterite nickel ore was $51.37/wet ton, the same as the previous day; the arrival price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic red - laterite nickel ore was $23/wet ton, the same as the previous day; and the CIF price of 1.5% - grade nickel ore from the Philippines was $52.7/ton, the same as last week. In terms of nickel iron, prices continued to rise. The ex - factory price of domestic high - nickel pig iron was 935 yuan/nickel point, with an average increase of 5.5 yuan/nickel from the previous day [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Currently, the surplus pressure of nickel is still large, but due to Indonesia's claim to reduce RKAB quotas and the proposed tax on cobalt elements, the market's bearish sentiment has weakened. The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for SHFE nickel prices is 110,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for the LME nickel 3M contract is $13,000 - 18,000/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Quotes**: The evening quotation of the Wuganglian Lithium Carbonate Spot Index (MMLC) was 133,021 yuan, up 7.45% from the previous working day. Among them, the quotation of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 132,200 - 134,800 yuan, with an average increase of 9,150 yuan (+7.36%) from the previous working day; the quotation of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 130,000 - 131,000 yuan, with an average increase of 7.94% from the previous day. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 137,940 yuan, up 6.12% from the previous closing price. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,750 yuan [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: On Tuesday, the market environment was bullish, and non - ferrous and precious metal - related varieties rose significantly. There were occasional disturbances in the supply news of lithium carbonate. Although the substantial impact was limited, the bullish sentiment was high, and the upward trend continued. In the first quarter, the maintenance of lithium - battery materials extended to the electrolyte end, and the price increase of lithium iron phosphate was gradually being realized. The in - the - money

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the copper market, the domestic market is affected by high prices with reduced downstream purchasing willingness. Attention should be paid to price support near key levels. Macro - level factors like the domestic risk preference and Fed's actions, and industrial - level factors like the narrowing of the New York spread and non - US high premiums need to be monitored [1]. - In the aluminum market, domestic apparent demand and terminal consumption are weakening, but low inventory and strong expectations support the current high prices [1]. - Regarding the zinc market, the domestic fundamentals are poor, but there is a temporary reduction in supply at the end of the year. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities for internal - external trading, and positive arbitrage opportunities for monthly spreads [2]. - For the nickel market, the short - term fundamentals are weak, and there is a game between policy and fundamentals due to Indonesia's quota plan [4]. - In the stainless - steel market, the fundamentals remain weak, but short - term price rebounds are driven by Indonesia's policy [7]. - Regarding the lead market, lead prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [9]. - For the tin market, there are signs of marginal weakening in the fundamentals, and it can be a long - position allocation in the first quarter of 2026, but there is also a risk of significant downward fluctuations if the macro situation is disappointing [12]. - In the industrial silicon market, short - term prices are expected to fluctuate with costs, and in the long - term, prices will oscillate at the cycle bottom [15][16]. - For the lithium carbonate market, downstream demand is mixed, with raw material supply tight and lithium salt inventory decreasing. The market is supported by the new energy vehicle subsidy policy [20]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 26, 2025 to January 5, 2026, the spot premium of Shanghai copper increased by 220, the waste - refined copper spread increased by 1382, and the Shanghai copper warehouse receipts increased by 8507. LME inventory decreased by 4875 [1]. - **Market Outlook**: Domestic market is affected by high prices, and attention should be paid to macro - level factors and industrial - level factors [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 26, 2025 to January 5, 2026, Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 850, and the spot import profit increased by 309.19. LME inventory decreased by 5000 [1]. - **Market Situation**: Domestic apparent demand and terminal consumption are weakening, but low inventory and strong expectations support high prices [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 26, 2025 to January 5, 2026, Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 650, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1775 [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The LME 0 - 3M spread is in contango, supply is facing challenges, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, focus on reverse arbitrage and positive arbitrage opportunities [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 26, 2025 to January 5, 2026, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 1000, and the LME inventory decreased by 246 [3][4]. - **Market Situation**: Short - term fundamentals are weak, and there is a game between policy and fundamentals due to Indonesia's quota plan [4]. Stainless Steel - **Price Changes**: From December 26, 2025 to January 5, 2026, the 304 cold - rolled coil price increased by 200, and the 304 hot - rolled coil price increased by 100 [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Fundamentals remain weak, but short - term price rebounds are driven by Indonesia's policy [7]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: Lead prices followed the macro trend to rise. The spot import profit decreased, and the LME inventory decreased. The domestic five - region social inventory remained low at 1.84 million tons [8][9]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand are in a complex situation, and prices are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [9]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: Tin prices fluctuated downwards. The LME inventory increased slightly, and the domestic inventory decreased [12]. - **Market Outlook**: There are signs of marginal weakening in the fundamentals. It can be a long - position allocation in the first quarter of 2026, but there is a risk of significant downward fluctuations if the macro situation is disappointing [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The basis of 421 grade in Yunnan and Sichuan increased by 130, and the basis of 553 grade in East China and Tianjin also showed an increase. The warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged [15]. - **Market Outlook**: Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate with costs, and in the long - term, prices will oscillate at the cycle bottom [15][16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 1000, and the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 1500. The warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged [20]. - **Market Situation**: Downstream demand is mixed, with raw material supply tight and lithium salt inventory decreasing. The market is supported by the new energy vehicle subsidy policy [20].

Group 1 - The A-share market opened positively on January 5, 2026, with major indices rising, and the Guozhen Free Cash Flow Index increasing by approximately 0.4% [1] - Notable stocks such as Fenghuo Communication reached the daily limit, with others like Yaxiang Integration, Salt Lake Co., and China Aluminum also seeing gains [1] - The largest free cash flow ETF (159201) experienced a net inflow of over 450 million yuan in the last 10 trading days, bringing its total size to 8.596 billion yuan, indicating significant capital inflow [1] Group 2 - CICC's strategy team defined 2026 A-shares as "riding the momentum," highlighting the strengthening logic of international monetary order reconstruction and the critical application phase of the AI revolution [1] - The performance of China's innovative industries is expected to continue supporting asset performance, with the importance of fundamentals in A-shares increasing after a period of valuation repair [1] - The free cash flow ETF (159201) and its linked funds are designed to closely track the Guozhen Free Cash Flow Index, selecting stocks with positive and high free cash flow, indicating high quality and strong risk resistance suitable for long-term investment [1]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2026 年 1 月 6 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价联袂走高，LME 铜收盘价再创历史新高。宏观方面，美国 12 月 ISM 制 | | | 造业指数从 48.2 小幅下降至 47.9，已连续 10 个月低于 50。新订单已连续第四个月收 | | | 缩，出口订单仍然疲弱；就业人数连续第 11 个月下降，不过降幅有所放缓。库存方面， | | 铜 | LME 库存下降 2775 吨至 142550 吨；Comex 库存增加 3204 吨至 456657 吨；SHFE 铜 | | | 仓单增加 8507 吨至 90282 吨，BC 铜维持 1053 吨。需求方面，因铜价持续高位，终端 | | | 订单有所放缓，市场维系刚性采购需求。资金仍是短线铜价的主要推手，但也会带来不 | | | 确定性风险，操作上维系铜"趋势多头思维"，建议在元旦至春节这段期间多观察，利 | | | 用宏观或情绪扰动导致的回调机会分批逢低布局。 | | | 隔夜氧化铝震荡偏弱，隔夜 AO2605 收于 2773 元/吨，跌幅 0.72%，持仓减仓 ...