转自：新华财经 过去15年以来，每年市值前30的周期制造类公司（以有色、机械、化工、汽车为例），其营收中海外营 收占比（取平均值）从2010年的约5%，一直提高到了2025年的约32%。如果以当前境外营收占比超过 20%的公司作为样本，这部分公司对全A非金融的利润贡献在2015年只有22%，在2020年为24%，但截 至2025年中报已经超过了40%。相应地，这部分公司占全A非金融市值比重在2015年只有28%，在2020 年为32%，截至2025年9月19日则达到37%。上述趋势是每一个新兴股票市场逐步成长为成熟市场的必 经之路，即全球敞口的跨国公司成为市场中大市值公司的主体。因此，在这个趋势下，用"行情与基本 面背离且全靠流动性驱动"来理解A股是有偏的，未来固有偏见会逐步被打破。事实上，纯内需导向的 品种今年涨幅非常有限，而出海导向的品种市值和利润占比已经远超不少投资者的固有认知。 新华财经上海9月22日电 中信证券研报分析认为，目前整体的行业选择框架依然是围绕资源+新质生产 力+出海。资源股在供给受限以及全球地缘动荡的预期推动下，从周期属性转向偏红利属性会带来估值 体系重构，博弈美联储降息的资金退潮带来 ...

本周末，2025浦江创新论坛，人头攒动，思想碰撞。在今年同步举行的WeStart大会上，第一财经记者 围观全球科技新锐企业来这里现场推介交流，众多外籍与会者传递出了一个清晰的信号：上海，正凭借 其独特的创新生态，成为全球科技企业眼中不可错过的机遇之城。从瑞士、芬兰的尖端医疗设备，到斯 洛伐克的先进机械，不同国度的创新者们，不约而同地将目光投向了这片东方热土。更现场、更财经， 一探究竟！ ...

Market Performance - The A-share market has experienced a significant bull market since September 24, 2024, with major indices showing substantial increases, including a 39% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index and a 102% increase in the ChiNext Index as of September 19, 2025 [1][2] - The total market capitalization of A-shares reached approximately 104 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of about 36 trillion yuan over the past year [4] Policy Impact - The bull market is characterized as a "policy bull" and a "confidence bull," driven by a series of financial policies announced by regulatory bodies aimed at promoting economic growth [1][2] - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need to boost the capital market and facilitate long-term capital inflows, supporting mergers and acquisitions of listed companies [2] Sector Performance - All 30 sectors in the CITIC classification have seen increases, with the top five sectors being Communication, Electronics, Computer, Media, and Machinery, which rose approximately 120%, 108%, 99%, 88%, and 76% respectively [6] - Conversely, the bottom five sectors, including Coal, Oil and Petrochemicals, and Utilities, showed modest gains ranging from 6% to 24% [6] Stock Performance - Over 3,000 stocks have risen by more than 50%, with 1,400 stocks increasing by over 100% since the bull market began [1][6] - Notably, over 400 stocks have surged by more than 200%, with the top three stocks experiencing increases exceeding 1000% [8] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current bull market has further potential, despite recent adjustments due to external factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate changes [9][10] - The market is expected to undergo structural shifts in the fourth quarter, with potential opportunities in cyclical sectors and low-position technology branches [10]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced a significant bull market since September 24, 2024, with major indices showing substantial increases, driven by policy support and improved investor confidence [2][3][8]. Market Performance - As of September 19, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen approximately 39%, the Shenzhen Component Index has increased by 61.7%, and the ChiNext Index has surged by about 102% since the "924" market [2][3][4]. - The total market capitalization of A-shares reached approximately 104 trillion yuan, an increase of about 36 trillion yuan over the past year [4][5]. Policy Impact - A series of financial policies announced by the central government aimed at supporting economic growth have been pivotal in boosting market confidence [2][3]. - The Central Political Bureau's meeting emphasized the need to enhance capital market support and facilitate the entry of long-term funds [3][8]. Sector Performance - All 30 sectors tracked by Citic have seen gains, with the top five sectors being Communication, Electronics, Computer, Media, and Machinery, which have risen approximately 120%, 108%, 99%, 88%, and 76% respectively [5][6]. - Conversely, sectors such as Coal, Oil & Gas, and Utilities have shown minimal growth, with increases ranging from 6% to 24% [5]. Individual Stock Performance - Over 5200 stocks have risen since the "924" market, with 3089 stocks increasing by more than 50% and 424 stocks rising over 200% [5][6]. - The top three performing stocks have seen increases exceeding 1000%, with the highest being 1710% [7]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current bull market has further potential, despite recent adjustments due to external factors like the Federal Reserve's interest rate changes [8][9]. - The market is expected to undergo structural shifts, with a potential focus on cyclical sectors and technology branches in the upcoming quarters [9].

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.30%, while sectors like power equipment, electronics, and communications continued to lead in gains, contrasting with the underperforming banking, non-banking, and food and beverage sectors [1] Broker Strategies - Guotai Junan Securities believes that the recent market adjustment presents an opportunity, asserting that the Chinese stock market will not stop here. They highlight the positive implications of the recent US-China talks and the potential for capital market reforms to accelerate, suggesting that the A/H share indices may reach new highs [2] - Guojin Securities indicates that a bull market is in the making, with a focus on cyclical opportunities in manufacturing and a shift from technology-driven growth to export-oriented growth as liquidity constraints ease [2] - Zheshang Securities anticipates continued consolidation in the Shanghai Composite Index, recommending a cautious approach and suggesting adjustments in sector allocations, particularly reducing exposure to technology and media while increasing positions in real estate and infrastructure [3] - Everbright Securities expects the A-share market to maintain a volatile pattern leading up to the National Day holiday, with a focus on structural balance amid potential profit-taking [4] - China Merchants Securities notes a historical pattern of financing trends around the National Day holiday, suggesting a potential rebound in market sentiment post-holiday, with a focus on sectors like solid-state batteries and AI [5] - Industrial Securities emphasizes a rotational investment strategy to navigate market volatility, advocating for a diversified approach across multiple sectors [6][7] - CITIC Securities highlights the clarity in market trading themes following the Fed's interest rate cut, with a focus on AI and domestic demand recovery as key drivers [8] - Huaxia Securities maintains a positive long-term outlook despite short-term fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of structural support from policies aimed at stabilizing the stock market [9] - Galaxy Securities recommends four main investment themes in the construction sector during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, focusing on urban renewal and digital transformation in construction [11]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.30%, while sectors like power equipment, electronics, and communications continued to lead in gains, contrasting with stagnant performance in banking, non-banking, and food and beverage sectors [1] Broker Insights - Guotai Junan Securities believes that the recent market adjustment presents an opportunity, asserting that the Chinese stock market will not stagnate and is expected to reach new highs, driven by favorable conditions such as a stable short-term risk outlook and potential capital market reforms [1] - Guojin Securities indicates that a bull market may be in the making, with opportunities arising from the easing of liquidity constraints and a shift towards cyclical manufacturing sectors like non-ferrous metals, machinery, and chemicals [2] - Zheshang Securities suggests a period of consolidation for the Shanghai Composite Index, recommending a cautious approach to investment and a focus on sectors like hard technology and infrastructure [3] - Everbright Securities anticipates continued market fluctuations leading up to the National Day holiday, with a tendency for funds to secure profits amid uncertainties [4] - According to China Merchants Securities, historical patterns suggest that financing activities typically contract before the holiday and surge afterward, with a focus on sectors like solid-state batteries and AI [5] - Industrial rotation is emphasized by Industrial Securities, advocating for a diversified approach to investment to navigate market volatility [6][7] - CITIC Construction Investment highlights the clarity in future market trends following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a focus on AI and domestic demand recovery [8] - Huaxia Securities maintains a positive long-term outlook despite short-term fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of sectors like AI and essential materials [9] - Galaxy Securities recommends four investment themes in the construction sector, focusing on urban renewal and digital transformation in construction [10]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, which is expected to create a more favorable external environment for Chinese assets, enhancing their attractiveness [2] - Multiple institutions, including Invesco and Fidelity International, express optimism about investment opportunities in non-US markets, particularly in China, Japan, and Europe, following the Fed's rate cut [2] - Emerging market equities are viewed as having good investment value, with current valuations being only one-third of developed markets, supported by a weaker dollar and easing monetary policies in the Asia-Pacific region [2] Group 2 - The easing of external constraints is expected to enhance the People's Bank of China's operational flexibility in monetary policy tools, such as MLF/LPR and structural instruments [3] - As the US economy shows signs of weakening and the Fed's independence comes under scrutiny, a gradual shift to a rate-cutting cycle is anticipated, which may lead to a significant increase in foreign capital inflow into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [4] - Key investment themes identified by Manulife include high-growth sectors like AI and robotics, sectors benefiting directly from liquidity easing, and industries with improving fundamentals due to policy changes, such as power equipment and chemicals [4]

Group 1 - The core argument of the articles revolves around President Trump's proposal to impose a 100% tariff on China and India due to their continued oil purchases from Russia, which the U.S. views as support for Russia's war efforts, particularly against Ukraine [1][3][5] - The proposal has faced significant opposition from key allies, including Japan and the European Union, who prioritize their economic relationships with China and India over U.S. demands [3][5][7] - Japan's Finance Minister expressed that imposing tariffs solely based on oil purchases from Russia is unacceptable, highlighting Japan's economic dependence on trade with China and the potential negative impact on its own economy [3][5] Group 2 - The European Union has shown reluctance to support the U.S. tariff proposal, citing the importance of maintaining economic ties with China and India, particularly in sectors like automotive and electronics [5][7] - The unilateral pressure from the U.S. is seen as ineffective, as countries like Japan, the EU, and India are making decisions based on their own economic interests rather than following U.S. directives [7] - Future U.S.-China relations may hinge on the ability of both parties to engage in equal dialogue, with potential for cooperation in areas such as technology, agriculture, and energy, rather than escalating tensions through unilateral actions [8]

Group 1 - The article discusses various upcoming webinars focusing on different sectors, including pharmaceuticals, home appliances, machinery, media, agriculture, and finance [31][33]. - Key topics include updates on raw material pharmaceuticals, in-depth reports on Green Source Group, recommendations for Ningbo Jingda, investment perspectives in the media industry, and analysis of pig production capacity regulation policies [31][32]. Group 2 - The webinars are scheduled for September 22 to September 25, with specific times and passwords provided for each session [31][33]. - Each session features industry analysts who will present insights and analyses relevant to their respective sectors [31][32].

Group 1: Market Trends and Company Investments - The A-share market has attracted significant investment from listed companies, with at least 8 companies utilizing over 1 billion yuan for securities investments or fund purchases this year [2] - Notable investments include Liou Co. with a maximum investment of 3 billion yuan, Fangda Carbon and Seven Wolves with maximum investments of 2.4 billion yuan and 2 billion yuan respectively [2] - As of September 10, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index have increased by 11.33%, 21.00%, and 36.71% respectively, prompting companies to invest idle funds into the securities market [2] Group 2: Company Performance Driven by Investments - Seven Wolves reported a net profit of 160 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with 130 million yuan derived from stock investments, despite only 30 million yuan from its main clothing business [3] - In 2024, Seven Wolves achieved revenue of 3.14 billion yuan, a decline of 8.84%, but reported a net profit of 285 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.35%, largely due to 236 million yuan in securities investment income [3] - Liou Co. achieved a net profit of 478 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 164.28%, primarily due to gains from investments in Li Auto [5] Group 3: Notable Investment Strategies - Jin Feng Investment Holdings, a subsidiary of Jin Feng Technology, has been actively reducing its holdings in the rapidly rising stock of Shangwei New Materials, having sold 1.6328 million shares in the past two months [6] - Jin Feng Investment reported an investment income of 1.962 billion yuan for the entire year, surpassing Jin Feng Technology's net profit of 1.86 billion yuan [7] - Jilin Aodong's net profit for the first half of 2025 reached 1.282 billion yuan, exceeding its revenue of 1.126 billion yuan, indicating a strong reliance on financial asset investments [9][11] Group 4: Investment Motivations and Strategies - Companies often emphasize that the funds used for securities investments are "idle funds," reflecting a strategic choice during periods of business stagnation [24] - Investment motivations can be categorized into cash management and industrial synergy, with companies like Jiangsu Guotai reallocating funds initially intended for overseas expansion to financial products [24][25] - Ningde Times exemplifies an industrial synergy approach, holding 39.4 billion yuan in lithium battery companies to strengthen supply chain control and enhance competitive power [25]