- Model Name: Hong Kong Stock Selection 20 Portfolio; Model Construction Idea: The portfolio is constructed by selecting the top 20 stocks with the highest scores at the end of each month and equally weighting them; Detailed Construction Process: The model uses four types of factors (technical, capital, fundamental, and analyst expectations) to score Hong Kong Stock Connect constituent stocks. The top 20 stocks are selected based on these scores and equally weighted to form the portfolio. The benchmark is the Hong Kong Composite Index (HKD) (930930.CSI) [4][39]; Model Evaluation: The model has shown superior performance in the Hong Kong Stock Connect constituent stocks [4][37] - Factor Name: Technical Factor; Factor Construction Idea: The factor is constructed based on technical indicators; Detailed Construction Process: The specific technical indicators used and their calculation methods are not detailed in the report [4][37] - Factor Name: Capital Factor; Factor Construction Idea: The factor is constructed based on capital flow data; Detailed Construction Process: The specific capital flow data used and their calculation methods are not detailed in the report [4][37] - Factor Name: Fundamental Factor; Factor Construction Idea: The factor is constructed based on fundamental financial data; Detailed Construction Process: The specific fundamental financial data used and their calculation methods are not detailed in the report [4][37] - Factor Name: Analyst Expectations Factor; Factor Construction Idea: The factor is constructed based on analyst expectations; Detailed Construction Process: The specific analyst expectations data used and their calculation methods are not detailed in the report [4][37] Model Backtest Results - Hong Kong Stock Selection 20 Portfolio, Annualized Excess Return: 13.7%, Excess Return Volatility Ratio: 1.0 [4][40][41] Factor Backtest Results - Technical Factor, specific backtest results not detailed in the report - Capital Factor, specific backtest results not detailed in the report - Fundamental Factor, specific backtest results not detailed in the report - Analyst Expectations Factor, specific backtest results not detailed in the report

国外 1. 高盛：黄金的表现将继续优于白银 周一，高盛在一份报告中称，黄金将继续跑赢白银，央行需求强劲是推高金银价格比的一个因素。因 此，该行预计白银不会赶上目前正在持续的黄金涨势。高盛还表示，如果经济衰退发生，估计ETF资金 流入的加速将推动黄金价格到年底达到3880美元。该行重申对黄金的结构性看涨观点，基本预期年底金 价为每盎司3700美元，到2026年中期则达4000美元。 2. 高盛：美联储不太可能因为"软数据"疲弱就降息 美国消费者和企业调查显示出一种焦虑的经济情绪，但基础数据尚未显示经济严重放缓。高盛经济学家 写道，美联储不太可能仅根据"软数据"就放松政策，尤其是因为在最近的过去，软数据错误地预示着衰 退即将来临，比如美联储在2022年抗击通胀期间。高盛的团队写道，美联储"在降息之前，也希望看到 劳动力市场和其他硬数据的证据"。这家投行和华尔街其他机构一样，相信美联储将在周三的利率决议 中保持利率不变。 3. 大摩：美联储不会先发制人 摩根士丹利由首席美国经济学家Michael Gapen领衔的分析师团队在一份研报中写道："鉴于美联储预计 通胀将保持坚挺，且关税冲击可能会产生持续的通胀效应，美联储 ...

| 行业名 | 成交量（亿 | 成交量较昨日增减 | 换手率 | 涨跌幅 | 今日主力资金净流入（亿 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 称 | 股） | （%） | （%） | （%） | 元） | | 计算机 | 80.08 | 16.11 | 4.54 | 3.65 | 56.72 | | 电子 | 73.37 | 23.97 | 2.68 | 2.64 | 46.98 | | 非银金 融 | 42.19 | 31.55 | 1.02 | 1.38 | 24.29 | | 机械设 备 | 90.99 | 18.74 | 3.40 | 3.04 | 22.76 | | 有色金 属 | 43.08 | 42.69 | 1.97 | 2.57 | 20.75 | | 通信 | 31.97 | 41.66 | 1.85 | 3.59 | 20.12 | | 电力设 备 | 54.55 | 8.54 | 2.26 | 2.16 | 15.08 | | 汽车 | 53.94 | 4.84 | 2.51 | 2.20 | 13.02 | | 传媒 | 41.10 | 1 ...

| 略 | | 投资策略 | | --- | --- | --- | | | [Table_MainInfo] 全 A | 净利边际改善，价格和政策有支撑的领域占优 | | 研 | | ——A 股市场 2025 年一季报业绩综述 | | 究 | 分析师： 宋亦威 | SAC NO： S1150514080001 2025 年 05 月 06 日 | | | [Table_Analysis] 证券分析师 | [Table_Summary] | | | 宋亦威 | 投资要点： | | | 022-23861608 |  2025Q1 全 A 单季营收同比增速较 2024Q4 出现回落，而单季归母净利 | | | songyw@bhzq.com | 同比增速由负转正显著改善。具体而言，2025Q1 全 单季营收和净利 A | | | [Table_Author] 严佩佩 | | | | | 同比增速分别为-0.2%/3.7%，前者较 2024Q4 回落 1.7 个百分点，后者 | | | 022-23839070 SAC No:S1150520110001 | 较 2024Q4 回升 17.5 个百分点。 | | ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market experienced weak fluctuations during the week of April 28 to May 2, with the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 declining by 0.49% and 0.43% respectively, while the ChiNext Index saw a slight increase of 0.04% [7] - The manufacturing PMI for April was reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI remained in the expansion zone at 50.4% [7] - The report highlights that sectors such as media, computing, and beauty care showed strong performance, while real estate and social services faced significant declines [7] Group 2 - The report notes that the current PE (TTM) for CSI 300 is 12.21 times, with a risk premium of 6.57%, which is above one standard deviation, while the ChiNext Index's PE (TTM) is 29.18, below one negative standard deviation [7] - It is observed that the overall A-share market's PE has increased, while the PB has decreased, indicating a mixed valuation trend across different sectors [9][14] - The report emphasizes that sectors like food and beverage, public utilities are at historical low valuations, while real estate and computing are at historical highs [28] Group 3 - The report discusses the impact of external factors such as tariff tensions on the domestic economy, with a focus on the need for stable policies to support economic recovery [7] - The report mentions that the U.S. economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter, significantly lower than the average growth rate of about 3% over the past two years, primarily due to a slowdown in consumer spending [7] - The report suggests that the market's risk appetite has improved due to a potential easing of tariff frictions, which may positively influence the A-share market's performance in the near term [7]

中泰证券研报指出，红利属性凸显，关注银行股投资价值。银行股红利属性凸显，建议积极关注银行股 的投资价值，关注大行、招行和优质城农商行。 NO.3 中信建投：5月市场或维持震荡格局，短期风险偏好继续边际改善 NO.1 中金：A股节后有望迎来"开门红" 5月6日，中金公司（601995）研报认为，一季度A股上市企业业绩边际改善，关税预期在小长假期间略 显和缓，港股美股在A股休市期间表现较好，国内外环境对A股整体影响偏积极，在此背景下A股节后 有望迎来"开门红"。配置层面，结合关税影响和行业景气度，建议考虑以下思路：1）景气回升并且受 关税影响不大的领域，例如DeepSeek突破加速AI产业发展，AI产业链中的云计算、算力等基础设施环 节，再到机器人、智能驾驶等应用环节，仍是重要主线。此外，部分对美敞口不高的出口链，如工程机 械、电网设备、商用车等也值得关注。2）现金流优质、与外需关联度不高的红利板块，例如水电、电 信运营商、食品饮料等行业的龙头公司。 NO.2 中泰证券（600918）：红利属性凸显，关注银行股投资价值 ｜2025年5月6日 星期二｜ 中信建投（601066）证券研报认为，上周全球市场避险情绪降温 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that global market risk aversion has decreased, leading to a recovery in investor sentiment supported by liquidity and a slowdown in trade war tensions [1] - Domestic consumption has improved due to the boost from the May Day holiday, indicating a continuous enhancement in internal demand [1] - The AI sector is experiencing accelerated development, with breakthroughs in multi-modal iterations and scenario-based applications [1] Group 2 - The first quarter reports of A-share listed companies have concluded, showing improvements in profit margins and structural differentiation in industry revenue growth [1] - Looking ahead to May, the market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with short-term risk preferences likely to improve marginally, potentially shifting market focus towards growth sectors [1] - Key industries to watch include electronics, machinery, computers, automobiles, home appliances, agriculture, retail, beauty care, and social services [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to show a pattern of "weight index rebound and active technology growth" in May, with a focus on investing in industries with improved performance after the earnings disclosure period [1][2]. Market Outlook - After the earnings disclosure period, the market will actively invest in industries with improved performance, and as it enters a performance vacuum, new industry trends are emerging, making thematic investments likely to return [2][3]. - The market's downward adjustment space is limited due to the stabilizing effect of the central bank, which is expected to enhance risk appetite and lead to a return of financing balances [2][4]. Style and Industry Configuration - A-shares are expected to shift towards small-cap growth styles as seasonal effects weaken, driven by improved earnings growth and easing trade tensions [3]. - Key industries to focus on include computing, automotive, machinery (automation and general equipment), non-ferrous metals, social services, and agriculture, with an emphasis on sectors recovering from tariff impacts and those experiencing local economic improvements [3][6]. Liquidity and Capital Supply-Demand - The market's risk appetite is anticipated to recover in May, with financing funds likely to flow back into the market [4]. - The stock market saw net inflows in April, with ETFs becoming the main source of incremental capital, while financing funds experienced net outflows due to decreased risk appetite [4]. Mid-Cycle Prosperity and Industry Recommendations - The focus is on sectors that are recovering from tariff impacts and showing signs of economic improvement, particularly in consumer services, high-tech manufacturing, and real estate [5][6]. - Recommended sectors include consumer services (home appliances, furniture, jewelry), new energy vehicles, and high-tech manufacturing, with a focus on areas with high or improving prosperity [6]. Track and Industry Trend Investment - The 2025 Shanghai Auto Show highlighted the debut of humanoid robots, showcasing advancements in automotive technology and AI applications [7].

Market Overview - On April 29, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index also fell by 0.05%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.13%[3]. - The trading volume on April 30 was 1.04 trillion CNY, a decrease of approximately 40 billion CNY compared to the previous trading day[1]. Sector Performance - Industries such as beauty care, machinery, media, and light industry saw significant gains, while public utilities, oil, coal, and social services experienced notable declines[1]. - The majority of sectors showed limited upward movement, indicating a weak market structure with most sectors declining over the past five days[1]. Capital Flow - On April 29, net inflows into the Shanghai Stock Exchange were 4.695 billion CNY, while net inflows into the Shenzhen Stock Exchange were 4.105 billion CNY[4]. - The top three sectors for capital inflow were IT services, general equipment, and automotive parts, while the top three sectors for outflow were electricity, securities, and liquor[4]. Policy and Economic Measures - The National Development and Reform Commission announced an additional 81 billion CNY in special long-term bonds to support the consumption upgrade program[5]. - The construction of the electricity spot market is set to accelerate, with specific deadlines for various regions to transition to formal operations by 2025 and 2026[6][7]. Industry Insights - Canalys predicts that by 2025, the penetration rate of L2 and above functionalities in the Chinese market will reach 62%, a significant increase from 2024[12]. - The issuance of new funds has surpassed 300 billion CNY this year, with nearly half allocated to equity funds, indicating a recovery in the active equity fund issuance market[15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Jiuhuashan Tourism is "Outperform" with a target price of RMB 48.50, indicating a positive outlook for the stock [4][11]. Core Insights - The company's performance in Q1 2025 exceeded expectations, with revenue of RMB 235 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.1%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 69 million, up 31.8% year-on-year [11][12]. - The company aims to enhance its capacity and aims for a revenue target of RMB 840 million and a profit of RMB 205 million by 2025, focusing on building a regional tourism complex and leveraging strategic opportunities in the Yangtze River Delta [12][13]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Jiuhuashan Tourism are as follows: - 2023: RMB 724 million - 2024: RMB 764 million (+5.6%) - 2025: RMB 831 million (+8.7%) - 2026: RMB 892 million (+7.3%) - 2027: RMB 943 million (+5.8%) [3][6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow significantly: - 2023: RMB 175 million - 2024: RMB 186 million (+6.5%) - 2025: RMB 215 million (+15.3%) - 2026: RMB 240 million (+12.0%) - 2027: RMB 263 million (+9.6%) [3][6]. Business Performance - The company reported divergent business performance in 2024: - Hotel revenue: RMB 237 million (+1.1%), gross profit margin (GPM) 14.1% (-2.4ppts) - Cable car revenue: RMB 293 million (-0.6%), GPM 86.0% (+0.02ppts) - Passenger transport revenue: RMB 159 million (+31.2%), GPM 52.4% (+3.8ppts) - Travel agency revenue: RMB 62 million (-7.5%), GPM 13.0% (+3.6ppts) [12][13]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing its brand and digital capabilities, leveraging its Buddhist cultural resources to promote new brands like "New Anhui Cuisine" and developing digital platforms for improved customer experience [12][13].