期货日报网讯（记者 谭亚敏）8月19日，由郑州商品交易所、芝加哥商业交易所集团联合主办的2025中国（郑州）国际期货 论坛正式开启。在当天下午举办的产业企业风险管理论坛上，避险网创始人刘文财介绍，当前上市公司成本有效套期保值 理念已经形成。 实际交易中，该铜企2024年5月30日平仓期货买入套保的头寸，转而买入铜场内期权相关合约，开仓数量1000吨，执行价 84000元/吨，权利金均价1552元/吨。6月24日，铜场内期权到期，该铜企放弃行权，权利金损失1552元/吨，同时买回铜期货 8月合约，成交价78650元/吨。总体测算，该策略用权利金损失规避了期货高位下跌的风险，较期货套保实现增值收益约350 万元。 "对产业企业来说，期货是一个很好的工具，企业要善于利用期货工具，做套保、做基差可以使企业增厚利润。目前期货和 期权相结合，对企业来说，也是一个很好好的帮手。"刘文财说。 据统计，2024年实体行业A股上市公司公告中提及的套期保值额度总计约为3.4万亿元（外币计价的按2024年的日均汇率折 算为人民币），其中商品套保额度约为2890亿元，外汇套保额度约为3.0万亿元，利率套保额度约为50亿元，未分类的额度 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper shows a volatile trend, with a decrease in open interest, spot premium, and a weakening basis. - Fundamentally, the supply from overseas mines has increased, and the TC spot index has significantly rebounded due to traders' shipments. - In terms of supply, due to the increase in copper ore supply and the relatively strong operation of the spot market, smelters are more active in production, and the domestic supply has increased. - In terms of demand, the impact of the consumption off - season has weakened. As it transitions from the off - season to the peak season, consumption has slightly improved. Downstream inquiries have become more active, and there is some demand for advance stocking, with the demand outlook turning positive. - Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of increasing supply and demand, with inventory remaining at a medium - low level, and the industry outlook is improving. - In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.28, a decrease of 0.0008 compared to the previous period. The options market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, both lines are below the 0 - axis, and the green bars are converging. - The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 78,890 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan compared to the previous period. The price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,751.50 US dollars/ton, an increase of 18.50 US dollars. - The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 140,367 lots, a decrease of 7,066 lots. - The positions of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper are 5,580 lots, an increase of 1,394 lots. The LME copper inventory is 155,600 tons, a decrease of 200 tons. - The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 86,361 tons, an increase of 4,428 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 11,375 tons, a decrease of 150 tons. - The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 25,498 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 79,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan. The price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 79,105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 195 yuan. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 52 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 48.50 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The basis of the CU main contract is 210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan. The LME copper spread (0 - 3) is - 96.75 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 234.97 million tons, a decrease of 4.58 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 37.68 US dollars/thousand tons, an increase of 0.38 US dollars. - The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 69,430 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 210 yuan. The price of copper concentrates in Yunnan is 70,130 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 210 yuan. - The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The processing fee of blister copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 127 million tons, a decrease of 3.20 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 480,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons. - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,640 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 216.94 million tons, a decrease of 4.51 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 2,910.66 billion yuan, an increase of 870.80 billion yuan. - The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 53,579.77 billion yuan, an increase of 6,922.21 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,689,220.70 thousand pieces, an increase of 183,435.30 thousand pieces. [2] 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 7.03%, a decrease of 0.01%. The 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.50%, a decrease of 0.06%. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money options in the current month is 8.92%, a decrease of 0.0029%. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.28, a decrease of 0.0008. [2] 3.7 Industry News - Premier Li Qiang of the State Council emphasized the need to further improve the implementation efficiency of macro - policies, respond to market concerns in a timely manner, and stabilize market expectations. Stimulate consumption potential, clean up restrictive measures in the consumption field, and cultivate and expand new consumption growth points. Expand effective investment, and take measures to consolidate the stabilization of the real estate market. - The global financial market is waiting for the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Conference on Friday. Different institutions have different expectations for Fed Chairman Powell's speech. - The Ifo Institute: Economists from many countries generally expect that the global inflation level will remain at a relatively high level in the next few years. The surveyed economists expect the global average inflation rate in 2025 to be 4.0%, the same as the previous quarter's expectation. - According to the China Automobile Dealers Association, new - car businesses of automobile dealers suffered serious losses in the first half of the year, and the problem of tight liquidity spread throughout the circulation industry. Looking forward to 2025, dealers expect a slight increase or flat performance, but their expectations for growth are lower than those at the end of last year. - According to Shanghai Securities News, China's urbanization is shifting from a rapid growth period to a stable development period, and urban development is shifting from a large - scale incremental expansion stage to a stage mainly focused on improving the quality and efficiency of the stock. Urban renewal has become an important turning point in urban development, which helps to improve the quality and efficiency of the stock, activate domestic demand, and promote the transformation and upgrading of the real estate industry. [2]

格隆汇8月19日丨云南铜业(000878.SZ)于投资者互动平台表示，公司生产与销售的主产品为阴极铜，不 直接从事铜管的生产和销售业务，下游产业的高速发展对公司具有积极影响。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: On hold [8] - Options: short put@77000 yuan/ton [8] 2. Core View of the Report The current processing fees have rebounded, but the relative shortage of mine resources is difficult to change temporarily. Consumption is also hard to show excellent performance. However, with relatively stable grid orders, it won't collapse significantly. Macro factors are relatively favorable for copper prices. Therefore, it is recommended to mainly use buy - in - hedging on dips, with an operating range of 77,500 - 77,800 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the later development of the Putin - Trump meeting. If the situation continues to improve, the LME may accept Russian copper again, which may put downward pressure on LME copper prices [8]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes On August 18, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 79,060 yuan/ton and closed at 78,950 yuan/ton, a - 0.14% decline from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,840 yuan/ton and closed at 78,840 yuan/ton, a 0.14% decline from the afternoon close of the previous day [1]. Spot Situation The domestic electrolytic copper spot market showed a supply - demand game. Shanghai's spot quotes had a premium of 170 - 280 yuan/ton over the 2509 contract, with an average premium of 225 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price range was 79,160 - 79,400 yuan/ton. The import window opening brought a profit margin of 200 yuan/ton. Weekend arrivals increased Shanghai's inventory, and imported supplies were sufficient, but domestic copper circulation was still tight, supporting a strong spot premium. It is expected that today's spot premium may decline under pressure [2]. Important Information Summary - Macro: The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held on Friday, and Fed Chairman Powell will speak. Due to the resilience of US inflation and the employment market, there are large differences in short - term market expectations for future interest - rate cuts. It is expected that Powell will have difficulty giving clear guidance on the future interest - rate path [3]. - Tariffs: Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on Indian goods. India's Prime Minister Modi plans to reform the goods and services tax, simplifying four tax brackets to two. The German government said the US must reduce tariffs on European - made cars before finalizing a broader trade agreement [3]. - Mine: Marimaca Copper's new drilling in the Pampa Medina mine in northern Chile expanded the ore body. Codelco requested to restart operations at the El Teniente copper mine's Andes Norte and Diamante mines, and some mines have resumed operations [4]. - Smelting and Import: In July 2025, China's exports of unwrought copper and copper products were 190,796 tons, a 35.4% year - on - year increase; the cumulative export from January to July was 934,046 tons, a 10.0% year - on - year increase. Imports in July were 480,000 tons, a 10.0% year - on - year increase; the cumulative import from January to July was 3.11 million tons, a 2.6% year - on - year decrease [5]. - Consumption: Last week, the domestic refined copper rod industry's operating rate rose to 70.61%, a 1.75 - percentage - point increase from the previous week but a 10.31 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year. It is expected to rise to 71.79% next week. The copper cable enterprise's operating rate fell to 69.3%, a 0.59 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week, and is expected to further drop to 67.6% next week [5]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 50 tons to 155,600 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 938 tons to 25,498 tons. On August 18, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 133,700 tons, an increase of 8,100 tons from the previous week [6][7]. Strategy - Copper: Cautiously bullish. It is recommended to use buy - in - hedging on dips in the range of 77,500 - 77,800 yuan/ton, but pay attention to the Putin - Trump meeting [8]. - Arbitrage: On hold [8]. - Options: short put@77000 yuan/ton [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The central bank's Q2 monetary policy implementation report indicates that there are more positive factors for a moderate recovery in price levels, and promoting service consumption can help boost domestic demand [8]. - The hog market is under pressure with an oversupply situation, and the 9 - month contract is expected to shift to a discount structure [9][10]. - The bond market is expected to be volatile and bearish, with short - term contracts showing some resilience and long - term contracts facing potential adjustments [11]. - Various commodities have different trends, such as gold and silver being affected by PPI data, copper lacking driving forces and oscillating, and zinc facing downward pressure [13][17][22]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Central Bank Policy and Consumption - The central bank's Q2 2025 monetary policy implementation report emphasizes that promoting service consumption by improving high - quality service supply is important. In 2024, the service consumption proportion in residents' per - capita consumption expenditure was about 46.1%, with significant growth potential [8]. 3.2 Hog Market - Since July, leading hog groups have increased supply and reduced weight, causing the spot price to decline. The market's previous bullish expectations have failed, and there is an oversupply situation. The 9 - month contract is expected to shift to a discount structure [9][10]. 3.3 Bond Market - The bond market is expected to be volatile and bearish. The central bank's policy emphasizes "continuing easing" and "structural adjustment." Short - term contracts have some resilience, while long - term contracts may face adjustments due to inflation expectations, macro - policies, and equity market risk preferences [11]. 3.4 Commodity Market - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices are affected by PPI data. Gold and silver prices declined slightly, and their trend intensities are - 1 [13][17][20]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Lacks driving forces and oscillates. US 7 - month PPI growth and changes in Chilean copper production and China's copper imports affect the market [22]. - **Zinc**: Faces downward pressure, and the trend intensity is - 1 [13][25][26]. - **Lead**: LME inventory reduction provides some support for prices, and the trend intensity is 0 [13][28][29]. - **Tin**: Oscillates within a range, and the trend intensity is - 1 [13][32][33]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum's volatility converges, alumina's center of gravity moves down, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities of aluminum and cast aluminum alloy are 0, and that of alumina is - 1 [13][35][37]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel oscillates narrowly based on fundamentals, and stainless steel oscillates due to the game between macro - expectations and reality. Their trend intensities are both 0 [13][38][42]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply disruptions and improving demand may lead to a continued bullish oscillation. The trend intensity is 1 [13][43][45]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon requires attention to market sentiment changes, and polysilicon requires attention to market news. The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1 [13][46][49]. - **Iron Ore**: Macro - risk appetite has not significantly declined, providing support. The trend intensity is 1 [13][51][52]. - **Steel Products**: Rebar and hot - rolled coils oscillate widely, and their trend intensities are both 0 [13][54][58]. - **Ferroalloys**: Ferrosilicon oscillates weakly due to weak sector sentiment, and silicomanganese oscillates widely with a firm spot price. Their trend intensities are both 0 [13][59][61]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both oscillate at high levels, and their trend intensities are both 0 [13][62][64]. - **Logs**: Oscillate repeatedly, and the trend intensity is 0 [13][65][68]. - **Petrochemicals**: Paraxylene is in a short - term oscillating market with increased supply and decreased demand but improved terminal demand. PTA has a weak reality and strong expectations, suitable for a monthly spread reverse arbitrage. MEG oscillates within a range, and attention should be paid to terminal demand improvement [13][69].

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 国信证券8月19日发布研报称，给予铜陵有色（000630.SZ）优于大市评级。评级理由主要包括：1） 2025H1归母净利润同比下降34%；2）成为全球最大铜冶炼公司；3）矿山铜产量提升，成本下降。风 险提示：铜价大幅波动风险，铜精矿加工费下跌风险。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The tariffs imposed by President Trump on various trade partners have significantly increased cost pressures and operational challenges for metal and mining companies, particularly affecting copper and aluminum producers while benefiting steel manufacturers [1][5]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on Companies - North American aluminum producers, including Alcoa and Rio Tinto, reported millions in tariff costs due to the doubling of aluminum import tariffs from 25% to 50% [2]. - Alcoa incurred $115 million in tariff costs in Q2, as 70% of its Canadian production is sold to the U.S. [3]. - Rio Tinto faced a total cost of $321 million for its Canadian aluminum exports due to U.S. tariffs [3]. - Freeport-McMoRan, the largest copper producer in the U.S., indicated that tariffs would increase costs by 5% [3]. - Caterpillar estimated the tariff impact in Q2 to be between $250 million and $350 million, leading to a 22% decline in adjusted operating profit [3]. Group 2: Steel Industry Perspective - The U.S. steel industry supports the increase in steel import tariffs from 25% to 50%, viewing it as a means to boost domestic demand and stabilize prices [5][6]. - Executives from Cleveland-Cliffs emphasized the necessity of strict enforcement of tariffs to maintain a strong domestic steel industry [7]. - Despite rising raw material costs, steel companies believe they can adjust their supply chains to cope with the changes [7]. - Steel companies expect improved operating conditions and profitability by the second half of 2025 due to stable demand [8]. Group 3: Operational Adjustments and Future Planning - Companies are reassessing their operational decisions in light of the tariff policies [9]. - Teck Resources reported an increase in capital requirements for its Highland Valley copper mine expansion project, raising its budget from CAD 2.1 billion to CAD 2.4 billion, reflecting a 14.3%-16.7% increase due to inflation and rising input costs [10]. - Grupo Mexico is evaluating U.S. investment opportunities, focusing on increasing smelting and refining capacity in response to tariff policies over the next 3-5 years [12].

Group 1 - The stock price of Northern Copper on August 18 was 11.55 yuan, down 0.30 yuan or 2.53% from the previous trading day [1] - The trading volume on that day was 1.4136 million lots, with a total transaction amount of 1.623 billion yuan [1] - Northern Copper primarily engages in copper mining, smelting, and processing, with products including cathode copper, copper wire, and copper strip [1] Group 2 - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 12.811 billion yuan and a net profit of 487 million yuan [1] - Revenue from precious metals business reached 2.529 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.04%, accounting for 19.74% of total revenue [1] - The revenue from sulfuric acid business was 102 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 197.33% [1] Group 3 - The company's R&D expenses increased by 48.60% year-on-year, contributing to a 3-5 percentage point increase in gross margin for new products [1] - On August 18, the net outflow of main funds was 210 million yuan, with a net outflow of 114 million yuan over the past five days [1]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the global tariff policy by the Trump administration marks a significant shift in U.S. trade policy, leading to widespread implications for global trade dynamics and economic conditions [1][6]. Group 1: Impact on Specific Countries - Brazil faces severe consequences with tariffs as high as 50%, leading to a drastic reduction in orders for export-oriented factories [3][5]. - India's traditional export sectors, such as textiles and jewelry, are also under pressure as tariffs approach 50%, prompting companies to reassess their global market strategies [3][11]. - Southeast Asian countries like Thailand and Indonesia are subjected to a 19% tariff, negatively impacting their agricultural and manufacturing sectors, particularly affecting Thailand's fruit exports [3][5]. Group 2: Reactions from Affected Countries - Many countries are sending delegations to negotiate tariff exemptions, with Brazil's orange juice industry successfully obtaining a waiver, allowing continued access to the U.S. market [7][10]. - Chile's copper industry has also secured special exemptions, leading to a rise in market confidence and stock prices for copper companies [7]. - Japan and South Korea are actively negotiating to protect their automotive and electronic sectors, with Japan particularly focused on the timing of reduced tariffs on cars [9][11]. Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The average effective tariff rate in the U.S. has surged to its highest level in nearly a century, indicating a major shift in trade policy that could lead to increased consumer prices and a rise in protectionism globally [5][6]. - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. tariff policy is prompting multinational companies to reevaluate their global supply chains, with some considering relocating production to other regions [12][14]. - The potential for a restructuring of global supply chains may lead to market volatility and economic disruptions in the short term, particularly affecting Southeast Asian economies that are integral to the electronics supply chain [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, after the release of US CPI data, the market increased expectations for a Fed rate cut, with the probability of a rate cut exceeding 90%. However, the soaring US PPI data on Thursday reduced the possibility of an unexpected rate cut, and the US dollar index rebounded accordingly. Domestically, nine departments including the Ministry of Finance jointly implemented a "discount interest" policy for service - industry loans to reduce financing costs and stimulate consumption. The economic data in July was weaker than before, and the central bank stated that it would implement a moderately loose monetary policy [4]. - In terms of supply, the port inventory of refined copper ore has declined to the lowest level in the past five years. The collapse of the El Teniente copper mine in southern Chile led to a short - term reduction in global supply. The TC/RC fees of smelters continued to stabilize and rebound. Long - term contract orders were profitable, while spot orders were still at a loss. The sulfuric acid price was at a historically high level, supporting smelter profits. Only one smelter had a maintenance plan in August, and a newly put - into - production smelter in East China started production. It is expected that the refined copper output will not fluctuate significantly, but smelters may cut or stop production in the later third quarter due to tight ore resources and sulfuric acid inventory [4]. - Regarding demand, downstream demand was lukewarm. Although new orders increased, market trading volume decreased month - on - month. The real estate sector still dragged down downstream demand, with real estate development investment from January to July decreasing by 12% year - on - year and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreasing by 4% year - on - year. However, the power grid and new energy sectors brought demand resilience. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased this week, reflecting weak short - term demand and a pattern of loose supply and demand [4]. - Overall, last week, the rising expectation of a Fed rate cut boosted the Shanghai copper price. After the PPI data exceeded expectations on Thursday, the Shanghai copper price first rose and then fell, but the overall center of gravity maintained an upward trend. Due to the expected tight supply and the impact of the Chilean copper mine incident, and with the demand side in the off - season, downstream operations remained stable with a downward trend, and the market trading sentiment was lukewarm. The Shanghai copper price maintained a range - bound pattern. A Fed rate cut in September has been confirmed, and an unexpected rate cut should be watched out for [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - On August 12, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the US CPI in July was flat year - on - year at 2.7%, lower than the expected 2.8%, and rose 0.2% month - on - month, in line with market expectations. The core CPI in July rose 3.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected 3%, reaching a new high since February. After the data release, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September exceeded 90%. - On August 14, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the PPI in July soared to 3.3% year - on - year, the highest level since February this year, far exceeding the expected 2.5%; it rose 0.9% month - on - month, the largest increase since June 2022, cooling the Fed rate - cut expectation [10]. 3.2 Shanghai Copper Price Trend - Last week, Shanghai copper showed an overall oscillatory and strengthening trend. The highest price of the week was 79,510 yuan/ton, the lowest was 78,410 yuan/ton, the weekly amplitude was 1.4%, and the range increase was 0.73% [14]. 3.3 Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of August 18, the average spot premium in East China was 200 yuan/ton, and the average premium in South China was 40 yuan/ton. The market supply was tight, and with more domestic smelter maintenance, the spot premium strengthened. It is expected that the premium will face pressure after the arrival of imported goods next month [21]. 3.4 LME Copper Price and Inventory - As of August 18, the weekly change rate of LME copper was +0.31%, closing at $9,730/ton. The LME copper spot discount continued to weaken, and the LME copper inventory continued to increase, with sufficient deliverable goods in the market [27]. 3.5 Copper Concentrate Supply - According to customs data, in July 2025, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a year - on - year increase of 18.24% and a month - on - month increase of 8.94%. From January to July 2025, China imported 17.314 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. As of August 15, 2025, the inventory of imported copper concentrate at 16 Chinese ports was 422,000 tons, a decrease of 6,700 tons from the previous week. - The El Teniente copper mine of Codelco in Chile had a mine collapse on July 31, and the smelter restarted on August 13 [32]. 3.6 Smelter Fees - As of August 15, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) in China was -$37.65/ton, and the RC fee was -3.76 cents/pound. The TC/RC fees continued to stabilize and rebound. The TC/RC of the long - term contract negotiation result was set at $0/ton and 0 cents/pound. Long - term contract orders were profitable, while spot orders were still at a loss. The sulfuric acid price was at a historically high level, supporting smelter profits. Factory seasonal maintenance plans in September and October will still lead to production reduction [36]. 3.7 Refined Copper Supply - In July, SMM's electrolytic copper output in China was 1.1743 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 39,400 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.21%. From January to July, the cumulative output was 7.7673 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.82%. With the gradual recovery of previously maintained smelters, only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August, and a newly put - into - production smelter in East China started production. It is expected that the output will not fluctuate significantly. In the later third quarter, production may be cut or stopped due to tight ore resources and sulfuric acid inventory. - In July, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 480,000 tons. From January to July, the cumulative imports were 3.113 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6% [40]. 3.8 Scrap Copper Supply - In June 2025, scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, with a relatively high year - on - year import volume and higher than market expectations. - As the price difference between refined and scrap copper increased, the substitution advantage of scrap copper decreased, and the scrap copper utilization rate of smelters decreased [46]. 3.9 Apparent Demand - As of June 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3705 million tons, at a historically high level. Since the beginning of this year, the apparent consumption of copper has been at a high level. It is estimated that China's refined copper consumption will increase by about 2% in 2025 and about 0.8% in 2026. - Downstream demand was lukewarm. Although new orders increased, market trading volume decreased month - on - month. However, the power grid and new energy markets were resilient, providing price support [50]. 3.10 Copper Products - According to Ganglian data, in July 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rods was 61.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.85%. The start - up rate was lower than expected. Downstream cable procurement was cautious, the processing fee of copper rods was under pressure, and some refined copper rod enterprises cut production unexpectedly. Currently, the operating load is at a historically low level, and the reduction in August is expected to be limited. - The operating load of copper tube enterprises remained basically stable, showing a slight downward trend. Some manufacturers planned to increase production due to concerns about future supply shortages. Market demand was weak, and there was also phased replenishment [55]. 3.11 Power Grid Project Data - According to data from the National Energy Administration, from January to June, the investment in power grid projects was 291.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%, reaching a record high for the same period. From January to June, the investment in power source projects was 363.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. Solar and wind power increased by 98.8% and 107% year - on - year respectively. The power grid project is still a rigid demand for copper, supporting the copper price [59]. 3.12 Real Estate and Infrastructure Data - From January to July, real estate development investment decreased by 12% year - on - year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4% year - on - year. From January to July, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 515.6 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%, 0.5 percentage points wider than that from January to June; the sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 4,956.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.5%, 0.5 percentage points wider than that from January to June [64]. 3.13 Automobile/New Energy Automobile Industry Data - From August 1 - 10, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles were 262,000, a year - on - year increase of 6% and a month - on - month increase of 6%, with a penetration rate of 57.9%. As of now, the cumulative retail sales this year were 6.717 million, a year - on - year increase of 28% [70]. 3.14 Global Copper Inventory in Major Exchanges - After the end of the copper siphon effect and a large increase in LME copper inventory, the inventory increase rate has recently slowed down. As of August 15, the LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03% and a month - on - month increase of 28.76%. The increase rate of COMEX inventory also gradually slowed down. The COMEX copper inventory was 267,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.16% and a month - on - month increase of 11.59% [76]. - On August 14, the cumulative spot inventory of copper in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 86,800 tons, an increase of 5,900 tons compared with July 7 and an increase of 5,300 tons compared with August 11. The bonded area inventory continued to increase. During the week, the exported goods of smelters continued to arrive and be stored in the warehouse. Although some goods in individual warehouses were cleared and imported into the country, the overall inbound volume was greater than the outbound volume, resulting in an increase in inventory. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained in a low - level oscillation and has not increased significantly yet, but it increased by 3,288 tons compared with the previous week, still showing a pattern of weak downstream demand and loose supply [81].