Group 1: Macro Insights - The PMI for June is reported at 49.7, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment, with production and demand returning to expansion territory [8][9][13] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is nearing completion, with most economic and social development indicators expected to be met, while some targets in innovation and green ecology still require effort [3][4] - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to emphasize three key themes: transitional guidance, unwavering commitment to new productive forces, and adaptive economic strategies [2][4][5] Group 2: Agricultural Sector - The number of breeding sows slightly increased in May, while the price of pork is expected to show a downward trend year-on-year, with stable operations anticipated throughout the year [20][22] - The pet food industry is experiencing growth, with an increase in market share for quality enterprises, despite a decline in export volume in May [20][23] - The price of yellow chickens is correlated with pork prices, suggesting potential upward movement in the future due to low supply levels [24]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - China's June official manufacturing PMI is 49.7, matching expectations and up from 49.5 in May, indicating a marginal improvement[4] - The production index rose to 51.0, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, signaling recovery in production activities[9] - New orders index increased to 50.2, up 0.4 percentage points, marking a return to the expansion zone after two months below the threshold[9] - The PMI for large enterprises is 51.2, up 0.5 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 48.6, up 1.1 percentage points[13] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing PMI for June is 50.5, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion[19] - The construction activity index rose to 52.8, up 1.8 percentage points, driven by infrastructure investments[25] - The service sector index is at 50.1, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points, reflecting seasonal adjustments in travel-related services[22] Group 3: Price and Demand Dynamics - The raw material purchase price index is at 48.4, and the factory price index is at 46.2, both showing a 1.5 percentage point increase from the previous month[16] - New export orders index is at 47.7, up 0.2 percentage points, while the import index is at 47.8, up 0.7 percentage points, indicating a slight recovery in external demand[9]

Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI for June is at 49.7%, indicating a slight expansion in the manufacturing sector, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 from the previous month [2][3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.5%, showing continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [4][6] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.7%, reflecting an overall acceleration in production and business activities [6] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI increased to 49.7%, with production and new orders indices at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, indicating improved production activities and market demand [2][3] - The purchasing volume index rose to 50.2%, up by 2.6 percentage points, suggesting enhanced procurement willingness among enterprises [2] - Price indices for major raw materials and factory prices improved, with indices at 48.4% and 46.2%, respectively, influenced by rising international oil prices [2] Key Industries - Key industries such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods continue to expand, with PMIs at 51.4%, 50.9%, and 50.4%, respectively [3] - The construction sector shows a significant recovery, with the business activity index at 52.8%, indicating robust infrastructure project progress [4][5] Market Expectations - The service sector's business activity expectation index is at 56.0%, indicating optimism among service enterprises regarding future development [5] - The construction industry's business activity expectation index rose to 53.9%, reflecting increased confidence among construction firms [5] Overall Economic Outlook - The overall economic activity is expected to improve as policy effects continue to manifest, with investment and consumption-related demands likely to be released [7]

Core Insights - In June, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, indicating a continuous improvement for two months, with the new orders index rising above 50% [1][2] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.5%, showing stable expansion, while the comprehensive PMI output index reached 50.7%, reflecting overall economic expansion [1][2] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with the new orders index rising to 50.2%, indicating a return to expansion after two months below 50% [1][2] - The production index for manufacturing was 51%, up 0.3 percentage points, showing stable expansion in production activities [2] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose by 0.2 percentage points to 50.5%, remaining above the expansion threshold [2] - The construction industry showed a business activity index of 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, indicating robust activity [2] Overall Economic Indicators - The comprehensive PMI output index increased by 0.3 percentage points to 50.7%, reflecting a positive trend in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors [2] - The new export orders index for manufacturing was 47.7%, showing a gradual recovery in exports, with a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month [1]

Group 1 - In June, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.7%, while the non-manufacturing business activity index reached 50.5%, indicating a recovery in both sectors [1] - The manufacturing PMI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points, marking the second consecutive month of improvement, with production index at 51% and new orders index at 50.2% [1] - The overall manufacturing sector is showing signs of stabilization, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 from the previous month [2] Group 2 - The construction industry saw a significant increase in business activity index to 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, driven by rising investment-related construction activities [2] - The recent stabilization in raw material purchasing prices and finished product sales prices indicates a positive trend in the manufacturing sector, ending a three-month decline [2] - Despite a decline in business activity indices for sectors related to consumer travel, the market expectation index remains high at 56.0%, suggesting potential recovery in service-related industries as the summer consumption peak approaches [3]

6月30日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。数据显示，6 月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为49.7%、50.5% 和50.7%，比5月份上升0.2个百分点、0.2个百分点和0.3个百分点，三大指数均有所回升，我国经济景气 水平总体保持扩张。 与此同时，价格指数回升。主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数分别为48.4%和46.2%，均比5月上 升1.5个百分点，制造业市场价格总体水平有所改善。 "从两个价格指数的变化趋势来看，近期制造业上游原料端和下游产品端的价格走势协同性较好。5月 份、6月份，购进价格指数和出厂价格指数同向变化，变化幅度相当。"文韬说。 分行业看，三大重点行业继续扩张。装备制造业、高技术制造业和消费品行业PMI分别为51.4%、50.9% 和50.4%，均连续两个月位于扩张区间。其中，装备制造业生产指数和新订单指数均高于53.0%，相关 行业产需两端较为活跃。高耗能行业PMI为47.8%，比5月份上升0.8个百分点，景气水平有所改善。 文韬表示，下半年我国经济将重点推进"强内"和"稳外"工作。"强内"是继 ...

1—5月份，单位与居民物品物流总额同比增长6.4%，较1—4月份提高0.5个百分点。即时零售等消费新业态日趋成熟，实物商品网上零售额同比 增长6.3%。1—5月份，工业品物流总额同比增长5.6%，增速较1—4月回落0.1个百分点。5月份同比增长5.5%，增速环比回落0.1个百分点。1— 5月份，进口物流总额同比下降4.1%，降幅与1—4月基本持平。5月当月，进口物流总额同比下降3.8%，降幅较4月扩大2.7个百分点。（综合央 视网） 点击按钮▲立即报名 6月官方制造业PMI回升至49.7 6月30日，国家统计局公布数据显示，6月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.7%，比上月上升0.2%，制造业景气水平继续改善。在调查的 21个行业中有11个位于扩张区间，比上月增加4个，制造业景气面有所扩大。产需指数均位于扩张区间。生产指数和新订单指数分别为51.0%和 50.2%，比上月上升0.3%和0.4%。 6月份，非制造业商务活动指数为50.5%，比上月上升0.2%，非制造业总体继续保持扩张。服务业景气度基本稳定。服务业商务活动指数为 50.1%，比上月略降0.1%。建筑业扩张加快。建筑业商务活动指数为52.8% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic economy is in a stage of phased recovery of internal and external demand, driving the PMI index to repair upward for two consecutive months [5][11][25]. - In the third quarter, the economic fundamentals still face several pressures, including the potential drag of high - temperature weather on production, the risk of demand decline as the driving force of reduced external uncertainties weakens, and the market's pessimistic outlook on the future fundamentals reflected by the decline of business operation expectations and employment indexes [5][25]. - Whether the existing policies can be implemented faster and whether the Politburo meeting in July can provide new incremental information may be important catalysts to help the bond market break the current volatile pattern [5][25]. Summary by Directory 1. Demand Repair Drives Strong Production - The demand index rose to the expansion range for the first time since the intensification of trade frictions in March, with the new order index rising 0.4 points, and the increase was greater than that of production, indicating the effect of domestic demand expansion policies and the dual suppression of production by seasonality and unclear demand prospects [3][11]. - The rebound of domestic demand may be mainly driven by national subsidies and the "618" shopping festival, with a fragile structure, and the decline of the employment index also reflects this [11]. - The new export order index's upward slope slowed down significantly, and the export replenishment based on the easing of trade frictions may be nearing the end, and external demand may face a quarterly decline in the second half of the year [3][16]. - High - temperature weather in July - August may further drag down manufacturing production [11][12][13]. 2. Price Index Moderate Repair - The raw material price index and the ex - factory price index increased by 1.5 points respectively compared with the previous month. The rise of the raw material price index may be related to the increased geopolitical risks leading to greater fluctuations in international crude oil prices, and the increase in oil prices is transmitted to other raw material prices through transportation costs [4][19]. - The repair of the downstream price index may be related to the temporary suspension of national subsidies in some regions. After the central funds for trade - in are issued in July, the price trend of terminal products needs further attention [4][21]. 3. Strong Recovery in the Construction Industry - The drag of real estate on the construction industry has weakened. The construction industry PMI index rose 1.8 points to 52.8 this month, and the business activity index of housing construction returned to the expansion range [5][22]. - The business activity index of civil engineering construction was 56.7%, down 5.6 points from the previous month, but it has been in the high - prosperity range above 55.0% for three consecutive months, indicating that infrastructure is still the main force for the expansion of the construction industry [22]. - After the holiday effect fades, the consumer service industry has a seasonal decline, while the producer service industry is relatively strong [25].

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI for June is 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, with all sub-indices improving except for employment and business activity expectations[1] - New orders index turned from contraction to expansion at 50.2%, contributing 0.12 percentage points to the marginal improvement of the manufacturing PMI[5] - The procurement volume index also shifted from contraction to expansion, showing the most significant improvement among all sub-indices, marking the highest level since 2015 for this period[5] Group 2: Employment and Expectations - The employment index for June is 47.9%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points, marking the weakest level of the year[1] - Business activity expectations index stands at 52%, down 0.5 percentage points, also the weakest year-to-date[1] - There is a disconnection between active procurement activities and the decline in employment and business expectations, indicating potential sustainability issues in procurement[13] Group 3: Construction Sector Analysis - The construction sector's PMI rose to 52.8% in June, primarily supported by the improvement in the real estate sector rather than infrastructure[17] - The civil engineering activity index recorded 56.7%, indicating a high level of activity, but this is a decline from May, suggesting that the construction sector's recovery is not driven by infrastructure projects[17] - The real estate sector's new orders index remains below 50%, indicating that the sustainability of improvements in the construction sector needs further validation from sales and investment trends[18] Group 4: Risk Factors - Consumer confidence recovery is slow, and policy implementation is not meeting expectations, posing risks to the economic outlook[23]

Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI for June is reported at 49.7%, matching expectations and slightly up from the previous value of 49.5%[1] - The non-manufacturing PMI stands at 50.5%, an increase from the prior value of 50.3%[1] - The average composite PMI for Q2 is 50.4%, lower than Q1's average of 50.9% and last year's Q2 average of 51.1%[1] Group 2: Demand and Price Trends - New orders in manufacturing, construction, and services have rebounded by 0.4, 1.6, and 0.3 percentage points respectively, indicating improved demand[2] - Manufacturing prices have rebounded by 1.5 percentage points, while construction and service prices increased by 0.8 and 1.6 percentage points respectively, although all remain below the expansion threshold[2] Group 3: External Demand and Employment - Manufacturing new export orders increased by 0.2 percentage points to 47.7%, still below the Q1 average of 48.0%[3] - Employment indices in manufacturing and services have decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 47.9% and 46.4%, respectively, indicating ongoing contraction in workforce[5] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The composite PMI of 50.7% in June is 0.2 percentage points lower than the Q1 average, suggesting a slower economic recovery[6] - The necessity for immediate policy stimulus is reduced, with potential policy actions expected to be postponed until August or September[6]