记者丨刘雪莹 编辑丨曾静娇 1月19日早上，黄金白银直线飙升，双双刷新历史新高！ 现货黄金一度站上4690美元/盎司关口，刷新历史高点，截至8:28，涨幅近1.8%。 | < コ | 伦敦金现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | 4675.900 | 昨结 | 4595.860 | | | | +80.385 +1.75% | 总量(kg) | 现手 | | 0 | | 最高价 | 持 | O 外 盘 | | O | | 最低价 4595.860 | 增 仓 | O 内 盘 | | O | | 分时 五日 日Ｋ 周Ｋ 月Ｋ 更多 | | | | | | ෆ加 | | 均价:-- 盘口 | | | | 4690.880 | | 2.08% 卖1 4676.330 | | 0 | | | | 买1 4675.900 0 | | | | | | 08:28 4675.665 0 08:28 4675.575 0 | | | | 4595.515 | | 0.00% 08:28 4676.046 0 | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the non-ferrous and steel industry in China [6] Core Views - Continuous focus on strategic opportunities in industrial metals is emphasized, with a recommendation to concentrate on the industrial metal sector as the market sentiment cools and volatility increases [9][14] - The zinc sector is highlighted as an overlooked foundational material in the context of de-globalization, with expectations for price increases due to improving supply-demand dynamics [9][14] - The copper sector is viewed positively in the medium term, with expectations for price and smelting fee improvements despite short-term fluctuations [9][15] - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from supply chain security and competitive advantages, leading to potential valuation premiums [9][16] Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report suggests that industrial metals are entering a favorable strategic allocation period as copper prices approach 100,000 [9][14] - Zinc is expected to see price increases driven by demand from re-industrialization in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, despite domestic construction concerns [9][14] - Copper prices are anticipated to improve due to supply constraints, with significant copper mines expected to resume production in 2026 [9][15] - The aluminum sector is projected to experience steady profit growth due to enhanced supply chain security and rising aluminum prices [9][16] Steel Industry - The steel industry is facing a weak fundamental outlook as it approaches the seasonal low around the Spring Festival, with expectations for policy measures to support the sector [17] - Weekly rebar consumption increased by 8.79% week-on-week, indicating a marginal strengthening in demand [22] - Steel production saw a slight decrease, with iron output down by 0.65% and rebar production down by 0.39% [19][22] - Steel prices have shown a slight increase, with the overall steel price index rising by 0.15% [36] New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in December 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 69.09%, indicating strong supply growth [40] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales showing substantial year-on-year growth [44] - Prices for lithium and cobalt have risen significantly, reflecting strong market demand [49][51]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical shocks are frequent, testing the low volatility of cross - asset classes. Geopolitics may be the key short - term market driver, and there is a risk of rising cross - asset volatility. Attention should be paid to non - eurozone safe - haven assets [11][12]. - The IEEPA ruling is still pending. If the US Supreme Court rules it unconstitutional, it may involve a $150 billion tariff refund, causing short - term tariff policy chaos, and the White House may seek an alternative legal framework [14][17]. - Changes in the expected FED chairperson have led the 10 - year US Treasury yield to break through the key level of 4.20%, with the pressure level raised to 4.20 - 4.3% [18][20]. - US fundamental data are relatively comfortable and in line with expectations. Retail sales in November were better than expected, and the CPI data in December were in line with expectations, with core CPI lower than expected [23][24]. - In the FICC precious metals market, the gold - silver ratio is returning. Gold has regained momentum, while silver is at risk of volatility. It is recommended to increase gold allocation and consider taking profit on silver long positions [25][28]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Performance of Major Asset Classes and Market High - Frequency Data Fixed Income - **Overseas Fixed Income**: The yields of various - term US Treasuries and major developed country government bonds have changed. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury yield reached 4.22% on January 16, 2026, with a weekly change of 5.76bp [43][44]. - **US Treasury Yield Curve and Credit Spreads**: Track the changes in the US Treasury yield curve over 1, 3, and 6 months, as well as the long - short spreads of US Treasury yields [51]. - **Relative Strength of Credit Bonds of Different Ratings and Eurozone Bond Spreads**: Analyze the relative strength of high - yield and Aaa - rated credit bonds and the spreads of Eurozone government bonds [60]. - **US Treasury Issuance and Primary - Secondary Market Supply - Demand Indicators**: Include the issuance of US short - term Treasury bills and medium - long - term Treasuries, as well as the bid/offer ratios of 2, 10, and 30 - year US Treasuries [69][73]. Exchange Rate Market - **Week - to - Week Performance of Major Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 99.3930 on January 16, 2026, with a weekly change of 0.26%. The euro, yen, and other currencies also had corresponding changes [78][80]. - **Yield Spreads between Major Country Government Bonds and US Treasuries**: Analyze the 10 - year yield spreads between US Treasuries and G7 countries, as well as the 2 - year yield spreads between the US and Germany [81]. - **Evolution of China's Monetary Policy Framework**: The inter - bank 7 - day reverse repurchase serves as the "policy rate", and the SLF and excess reserve ratio form the "interest rate corridor" [90]. - **Monthly and High - Frequency Indicators of the RMB Exchange Rate**: Include China's central bank gold and foreign exchange reserves, import and export year - on - year data, and high - frequency indicators such as the yield spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 3 - month Treasuries [95][103]. Commodities - **Week - to - Week Performance of Major Commodities**: Brent crude oil had a weekly increase of 3.45%, while Shanghai copper decreased by 0.63% [121][123]. - **Ratios of Major Commodities and Relative Strength of Industrial Chains**: Analyze the gold - silver ratio, gold - copper ratio, and the relative strength of the downstream/upstream of the energy and black metal industrial chains [125][131]. - **Mapping of Commodity Prices in the Equity and Bond Markets**: Examine the relative strength of commodities compared to global equity and bond indices and the rolling correlation between upstream Bloomberg commodities and downstream equity cyclical sectors [134][137]. - **High - Frequency Data of Macro Commodities**: Include OPEC+ crude oil production quotas, US energy department crude oil production, and global crude oil and copper inventory changes [141][144]. Overseas Equities - **Week - to - Week Performance of Global Major Indices and US Stock Sectors**: The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.38%, and the Nikkei 225 index increased by 5.51%. Among the S&P industry indices, the real estate index increased by 3.89%, while the financial index decreased by 2.33% [149][153]. - **Week - to - Week Performance, Valuation, and Earnings Tracking of US Stock Styles**: The US large - cap growth style decreased by 1.52%, and the US small - cap value style increased by 1.34%. The PE ratios and EPS growth rates of major indices are also provided [156][160]. - **Earnings Cycle Positioning - Quarterly EPS YoY Trends of Major Indices**: Track the quarterly EPS YoY trends of the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and other indices [166]. - **Volatility and Risk Sentiment Indicators**: Include the Chicago S&P Volatility VIX index, ICE Bond Volatility MOVE index, and CBOE option PUT/CALL ratio [173]. - **Tracking Factors**: Track the YTW total return performance of US stock market factors [183]. Cryptocurrencies - Track BTC, ETH, and related derivative assets, including the performance of Bitcoin futures main contracts, non - commercial net positions, and the performance of cryptocurrency - related stocks [186][190]. Post - YCC Era of the BOJ - Track high - frequency data of the yen carry - trade system, such as the net amount of Japanese investors' purchases of overseas bonds and stocks, the USDJPY 1 - year exchange - rate hedging cost, and the yen 3M volatility [194][196]. 2. Macro Data Hologram and Fundamental High - Frequency Data Real - Time Economic Momentum - Include the Fed's nominal and real real - time GDP models, US GDP and its sectoral breakdowns, and economic surprise indices of the US, Europe, and China [204][208]. Financial Conditions - Analyze the Fed's balance sheet and its weekly changes, the balance sheets of G4 central banks as a percentage of GDP, and the US and Eurozone financial conditions indices [212][215]. Fiscal Policy - Examine the US federal government's fiscal expenditure and revenue breakdowns, government debt issuance, and the government deficit as a percentage of GDP [220][225]. Employment Market - Track the US employment market on a weekly and monthly basis, including non - farm payrolls, household surveys, ADP data, and job vacancy numbers [229][230]. Inflation Indicators - Analyze the breakdown of US inflation YoY data, the trends of headline and core inflation, and inflation expectations [237][242]. Consumption Demand - Track US consumption data on a weekly and monthly basis, including retail sales, consumer confidence, and personal income and savings [245][252]. Cycle Positioning - Track industrial, manufacturing, and inventory cyclical indicators, such as the LEI leading indicator YoY, ISM PMI, and US manufacturing surveys [267][272]. Credit Cycle - Track US credit surveys, valuations, and high - frequency data in the credit market, such as the SLOOS corporate credit survey and S&P index valuations [280][282]. Transportation and Logistics - Track logistics data between China, Asia, Europe, and the US, including shipping frequencies, port freight data, and aviation passenger numbers [284][297]. Real Estate Market - Analyze the US real estate equity market, credit spreads, and commercial real estate, including real estate indices, mortgage rates, and commercial real estate loan delinquency rates [302][308]. Eurozone - Provide a macro overview, cycle positioning, and relative strength analysis of the Eurozone, including deficit rates of peripheral countries, inflation trends, and retail sales data [311][331].

Group 1: Copper - LME copper price increased by 1.41% to $13,148.5 per ton, while Shanghai copper decreased by 0.63% to ¥100,800 per ton [1] - Domestic copper inventory increased by 17.2% week-on-week, with total inventory up by 21,280 tons year-on-year [1] - The operating rate of waste anode plate enterprises rose to 75.90%, with expectations of a slight decrease next week [1] Group 2: Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 0.71% to $3,171.5 per ton, while Shanghai aluminum fell by 1.66% to ¥23,900 per ton [2] - The operating rate of domestic aluminum processing enterprises increased by 0.2% to 60.2% due to pre-holiday inventory demand [2] - The total production capacity of metallurgical-grade alumina is 11,032 million tons/year, with an operating capacity of 8,916 million tons/year [2] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 2.26% to $4,620.5 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings rising by 10.24 tons to 1,074.8 tons [3] - Geopolitical risks have led to a strong fluctuation in the gold market, with concerns over U.S. military actions against Iran [3] - The 10-year TIPS decreased by 0.02 percentage points to 1.88% [3] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide increased by 8.01%, with exports of rare earth permanent magnets reaching a historical high [4] - The expectation of more relaxed export policies is anticipated to boost future demand [4] - Key companies to watch include China Rare Earth, Guangsheng Nonferrous, and Northern Rare Earth [4] Group 5: Tungsten - Tungsten concentrate price rose by 6.33%, with supply remaining tight due to pre-holiday clearances [4] - The establishment of a $2.5 billion "strategic resilience reserve" in the U.S. may increase tungsten's priority [4] - Companies to focus on include China Tungsten High-Tech and Xiamen Tungsten [4] Group 6: Tin - Tin price increased by 7.55%, with inventory levels still acceptable despite recent accumulation [4] - Supply from Indonesia and Myanmar remains below expectations, supporting an upward price trend [4] - Companies to consider include Yunnan Tin and Huaxi Nonferrous [4] Group 7: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate rose by 20.1% to ¥158,300 per ton, while lithium hydroxide increased by 21.2% to ¥153,700 per ton [4] - Total lithium carbonate production reached 22,600 tons, with a slight increase week-on-week [4] - The market is expected to maintain a strong upward trend due to low inventory and high demand [4] Group 8: Cobalt - Cobalt price decreased by 1.3% to ¥454,000 per ton, while cobalt intermediate prices increased by 0.6% to $25.38 per pound [5] - The market is experiencing cautious purchasing behavior due to high cost pressures [5] - The price of cobalt salts continues to rise, providing support for electric cobalt prices [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][58]. Core Viewpoints - Precious Metals - Gold: As of January 16, the COMEX gold futures contract reached $4601.1 per ounce, a month-on-month increase of 1.8%. The SPDR Gold ETF increased by 2.0% to 1086 tons. The U.S. non-farm employment is expected to increase by 50,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.4%. The ongoing U.S. debt issues and weakening dollar credit are expected to support gold prices in the long term [4]. - Industrial Metals: Copper and aluminum prices experienced a short-term adjustment after a rise. As of January 16, the SHFE copper futures contract fell by 0.63% to 100,770 yuan per ton, while aluminum fell by 1.7% to 23,925 yuan per ton. The tightening supply expectations for copper and the supportive macro environment suggest a potential upward revaluation of copper prices [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Nonferrous Metal Index Trends - As of January 16, 2026, the nonferrous metal index closed at 10,530.11 points, a month-on-month increase of 3.9%. The precious metal index rose by 6.9%, the industrial metal index by 2.8%, and the energy metal index by 2.7%. In contrast, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.57% [10]. 2. Precious Metals 2.1 Gold - The gold price is expected to continue its upward trend due to macroeconomic uncertainties and the weakening dollar credit, enhancing its safe-haven appeal [4][57]. 3. Industrial Metals 3.1 Copper - The domestic copper social inventory reached 320,900 tons as of January 15, with LME copper inventory at 143,600 tons. The tightening supply expectations and the agreement between Rio Tinto and Amazon for copper supply for AI data centers highlight the increasing competition for copper resources [6][7]. 3.2 Aluminum - Domestic aluminum social inventory reached 736,000 tons as of January 15, with LME aluminum inventory at 488,000 tons. The macroeconomic environment is expected to support aluminum prices, which are likely to remain high [6]. 3.3 Tin - The SHFE tin futures contract rose by 14.9% to 405,000 yuan per ton as of January 16, driven by supply concerns from the Congo and regulatory tightening in Indonesia [6]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the gold, copper, and aluminum sectors. For gold, the recommendation is to pay attention to Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining. For copper, the focus is on Luoyang Molybdenum. For aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum is highlighted as a potential investment [7][55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including 山金国际, 赤峰黄金, 洛阳钼业, 中国宏桥, and 中钨高新 [10]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing a general upward trend, with significant price increases across various metals, driven by macroeconomic factors and supply chain dynamics [11][19]. - The report highlights the impact of U.S. tariffs and trade policies on the supply and demand dynamics of key metals, particularly copper and aluminum [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inventory levels and production capacities, as these factors are critical in determining future price movements [26][35]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Concerns over tariffs have led to a temporary pullback in silver prices, but the long-term outlook remains positive [1]. - The report suggests monitoring companies such as 兴业银锡 and 盛达资源 for potential investment opportunities [1]. Industrial Metals - Copper inventories are rising, particularly in the U.S., raising concerns about supply tightness in non-U.S. regions [2]. - The report notes that while high copper prices are suppressing end-user demand, the long-term consumption outlook remains strong due to infrastructure investments [2]. Aluminum - The aluminum market is expected to experience price fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic policies [3]. - The report indicates that production cuts in aluminum processing are occurring, particularly in regions like Guizhou and Henan [3]. Nickel - Nickel prices are on an upward trend, supported by supply tightening expectations from Indonesia [4]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring companies like 华友钴业 and 力勤资源 for investment opportunities [4]. Tin - Supply chain bottlenecks and macroeconomic factors are providing short-term support for tin prices [5]. - The report suggests that companies like 华锡有色 and 兴业银锡 may benefit from these market conditions [5]. Lithium - Lithium prices are experiencing wide fluctuations due to export policy expectations and demand uncertainties [6]. - The report recommends关注 companies such as 赣锋锂业 and 天齐锂业 for potential investment [6]. Cobalt - Progress in cobalt shipments from the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to support high cobalt prices in the short term [9]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like 华友钴业 and 腾远钴业 for investment opportunities [9].

有色金属 2026 年 01 月 18 日 行 业 研 究 有色金属 20260118 周报：海外宏观和地缘风险升温，银价 延续加速上涨 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 贵金属：海外宏观和地缘风险升温，银价延续加速上涨。本周海外宏 观和地缘风险升温，推升贵金属避险属性。特朗普政府就美联储华盛顿总 部翻新项目费用对美联储主席鲍威尔发起刑事调查。此次令人意外的刑事 调查使特朗普与鲍威尔的长期矛盾升级。鲍威尔指出，这本质上关乎美联 储能否继续根据证据和经济状况来设定利率，还是将受到政治左右。美国 劳动力市场降温迹象促使市场消化年内降息75个基点预期。短期而言，美 联储降息预期摇摆，整体呈现易涨难跌格局；中长期而言，全球关税政策 和地缘政治的不确定性背景下，避险和滞涨交易仍是黄金交易的核心，长 期配置价值不改。个股：黄金关注招金灵宝万国紫金黄金，A股关注紫金、 中金、赤峰及西金等；H股关注潼关、山金、招矿及集海等。银铂钯均为黄 金的贝塔，个股关注盛达、湖银、豫光、贵研及浩通等。 工业金属：降息预期博弈，铜铝价格震荡。铜，近期宏观市场对于价 格的扰动再度回升，国内央行下调利率，美联储话题性十足，而地缘局势 冲突的隐 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the simultaneous bullish positions in both the US dollar and gold by funds suggest a strengthening of risk aversion rather than a decline in risk appetite [1] - Last week, the international spot gold price opened at $4509.80, reached a high of $4642.72, and closed at $4594.77, marking an increase of $84.51 or 1.87% [1] - The US dollar index opened at 99.10 points, closed at 99.36 points, and increased by 230 points or 0.24% [3] Group 2 - The wellxin precious metals index opened at 11531.90 points and closed at 12221.28 points, reflecting a significant increase of 708.05 points or 6.15% [3] - The latest gold-silver ratio is 50.99, which is a ten-year low, indicating that silver has transitioned from a passive to a leading role compared to gold [5] - The COMEX gold net position increased to 781.44 tons, with a notable weekly increase of 73.42 tons, marking the largest single-week increase since September of the previous year [15] Group 3 - The global largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, reported a holding of 1085.67 tons, which is a near-term high, with an increase of 21.11 tons from the previous week [15] - The latest COMEX silver net position is 4985.89 tons, showing an increase of 433.74 tons, primarily due to short covering rather than new long positions [15] - The dollar index has shown a tendency to strengthen, with the latest net short position in the dollar futures market decreasing significantly by $88 billion, indicating a strong bullish sentiment towards the dollar [18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the precious metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The precious metals sector, particularly gold and silver, has seen strong price increases, with London spot gold rising by 5.93% to $4611.05 per ounce and silver increasing by 22.35% to $90.80 per ounce over the past two weeks [4][9] - The recent price surge is attributed to several factors, including weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data, changes in margin requirements for precious metal contracts by CME, and geopolitical tensions involving Venezuela [4][5] - The report suggests that the "Trump 2.0" and "rate cut trade" themes will continue to support gold prices in the medium term, with a focus on upcoming economic indicators and Federal Reserve decisions [4][5] Summary by Sections 1. Price Trends - Over the last two weeks, gold prices have increased significantly, with London spot gold up 5.93% and Shanghai gold up 5.60%. Silver prices have surged by 22.35% in London and 31.68% in Shanghai [9][10] 2. U.S. Economic Data and Federal Reserve Tracking - The report highlights that the U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 50,000 jobs in December 2025, below expectations, and the unemployment rate was recorded at 4.4%, indicating a slowdown in job growth [4][5] 3. Positions and Trading Volume - The report notes an increase in trading volumes, with Shanghai gold positions rising by 10.39% to 347,100 contracts and silver positions increasing by 12.21% to 719,100 contracts [9][10] 4. Domestic and International Price Differences and Gold Benchmark Ratios - The report indicates that the gold price difference between domestic and international markets is -4.33 CNY per gram, while the silver price difference is 2217.87 CNY per kilogram [57] 5. Futures Basis Situation - As of the latest report, the international gold basis (spot-futures) is $9.95 per ounce, showing a decrease, while the domestic gold basis is -1.23 CNY per gram, indicating an increase [63]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for all key companies listed, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt, among others [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that geopolitical tensions are driving up precious metal prices, with gold and silver showing significant increases due to heightened risk aversion [1][9]. - Industrial metal prices are experiencing mixed trends, with aluminum and copper facing downward pressure while zinc and nickel show some resilience [9][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic policies aimed at boosting demand, which are expected to support industrial metal prices in the near term [9][26]. Industry Performance - The SW Nonferrous Index increased by 3.94% during the week, while the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index saw declines of 0.45% and 0.57%, respectively [9]. - Precious metals such as gold and silver have seen price increases of 1.83% and 12.73%, respectively, reflecting strong market demand [9][15]. Industrial Metals - Aluminum prices decreased by 0.65% to $3,129 per ton, while copper prices fell by 1.21% to $12,808.5 per ton [15]. - Zinc prices increased by 1.86% to $3,207.5 per ton, and nickel prices rose by 0.52% to $17,792 per ton [15]. - The report notes that domestic aluminum production is increasing, but demand remains weak, leading to a slight rise in inventory levels [26][28]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are projected to continue rising due to central bank purchases and a weakening dollar, with current prices around 1,034.77 CNY per gram [9][72]. - Silver prices have surged, with a notable increase in demand driven by geopolitical uncertainties [9][72]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are expected to rise as supply chain issues persist, with current market dynamics favoring a bullish outlook [9][88]. - Lithium prices have also seen significant increases, reflecting strong demand in the energy sector [9][88].