Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to maintain a long - term upward trend, with a current recommendation of waiting and a low - buying approach. Alumina prices are in a bottom - grinding phase, with short - term narrow - range rebounds and potential for continuous upward movement if substantial production cuts occur. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong with a bullish outlook after corrections. Cast aluminum alloy prices will be strong and bullish on dips. Zinc prices will fluctuate within a range. Lead prices may decline with increasing social inventory. Nickel prices are expected to decline during the off - season. Stainless steel prices will face downward pressure. Tin prices will remain high and volatile. Industrial silicon prices are recommended to hold long positions and take profits at high points. Polysilicon prices should be bought after corrections await positive news. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to rebound in the short - term and consider shorting at high - pressure levels [3][13][22][30][37][41][46][53][61][65][71][78] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2512 closed at 86,480 yuan/ton, up 0.62%. The Shanghai copper index increased its positions by 834 lots to 555,200 lots. The spot price in Shanghai rose by 15 yuan/ton to a premium of 55 yuan/ton, while in Guangdong it dropped to a discount of 40 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, and in North China it remained at a discount of 140 yuan/ton [1] - **Important Information**: In October, China's CPI and PPI showed positive trends. The US Senate reached an agreement to end the government shutdown. As of November 10, copper inventories decreased by 0.74 tons to 195,900 tons. A Canadian company may restart a copper mine in Nevada in Q2 2026, supplying about 27,000 tons of copper annually [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term liquidity concerns are alleviated. The supply is tightening while demand is picking up [1][3] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and maintain a long - term bullish view. Consider ratio trading for potential rebounds and wait on options [4][5][6] Alumina - **Market Review**: The 2601 contract of alumina rose by 50 yuan to 2,829 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 8,099 lots to 547,700 lots. Spot prices in different regions showed mixed trends [8] - **Related Information**: An aluminum plant in Xinjiang and an electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Yunnan made procurement transactions. Guinea's mining companies had relevant operations. National alumina production capacity and costs were reported [9][10][12] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply exceeds demand, and there are expectations of production cuts. Prices rebounded due to short - covering, but the upside may be limited without substantial production cuts [13] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term narrow - range rebounds, beware of selling pressure. Wait on arbitrage and options [14][15] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract rose by 80 yuan to 21,680 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 13,320 lots to 743,400 lots. Spot prices in different regions declined [17] - **Related Information**: China's economic data was positive, and the US government was expected to end the shutdown. Overseas and domestic aluminum production and consumption situations were reported [17][19][20] - **Trading Logic**: The market sentiment is eased. Overseas supply is tight, while domestic demand shows resilience [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Remain bullish after corrections. Consider long Shanghai aluminum and short LME aluminum for arbitrage and wait on options [23][24] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The 2512 contract of cast aluminum alloy rose by 60 yuan to 21,105 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 165 lots. Spot prices remained stable in different regions [26] - **Related Information**: The US government was expected to end the shutdown. The cost and profit of the industry were reported, and warehouse receipts increased [28][29] - **Trading Logic**: Market sentiment is eased. Supply is tight and costs are high, but downstream sentiment is affected by high prices [30] - **Trading Strategy**: Bullish on dips. Wait on arbitrage and options [31] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2512 contract fell 0.07% to 22,670 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 1,217 lots to 228,100 lots. Spot prices in Shanghai were affected by supply and demand, and trading was mainly among traders [33] - **Related Information**: Domestic zinc inventories slightly increased [34] - **Logic Analysis**: Mine supply is tight, and there are expectations of production cuts. The upside may be limited [35][37] - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a range. Hold the long SHFE and short LME zinc arbitrage. Wait on options [38] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2512 contract rose 0.49% to 17,505 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 26 lots to 120,300 lots. Spot prices increased, and the spread between primary and recycled lead decreased [40] - **Related Information**: Social inventories increased [41] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply may improve, while demand may weaken [41] - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a range and expect a decline with increasing inventory. Wait on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [42] Nickel - **Important Information**: The Jakarta government is formulating regulations on official electric vehicles. The Indonesian government is cracking down on illegal mining. Global nickel smelting activities declined in September [44][46] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand are slightly tightened, but overall it is loose. Prices are under pressure during the off - season [46] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds. Wait on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [47][48][49] Stainless Steel - **Important Information**: A stainless - steel factory in South Korea suspended operations due to an accident. A Chinese company's production capacity and market situation were reported [51][53] - **Logic Analysis**: The market is weak with limited demand growth points. Supply is abundant, and prices are under pressure [53] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds. Wait on arbitrage [54][55] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 286,560 yuan/ton, up 1.04%. The spot price in Shanghai rose by 2,250 yuan/ton to 286,000 yuan/ton [57] - **Related Information**: China's economic data was reported. Yunnan achieved mining goals, and a company's tin production decreased [58][60] - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - environment is positive for tin prices, but the supply is tight, and demand is slowly recovering [61] - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a high - level range. Wait on options [62][63] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: A quartz - to - silicon plant in Angola was completed. November's polysilicon production decreased, and power prices in Yunnan and Sichuan increased [65] - **Logic Analysis**: Demand is weakening, and supply may further decrease. Prices may range between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [65] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions and take profits at high points. Do positive arbitrage on Si2512 and Si2601 contracts. Sell out - of - the - money put options [66][67][68] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: Sichuan issued a notice on new energy project electricity price bidding [70] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand are both decreasing, with supply decreasing more. Spot prices lack upward momentum [71] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy after corrections await positive news. Do reverse arbitrage on far - month contracts [72][73] Lithium Carbonate - **Important Information**: A research team made a breakthrough in solid - state battery technology. The new - energy vehicle market was active [76] - **Logic Analysis**: Downstream production increased slightly in November, while production decreased. Prices may remain high in the short - term and face downward pressure in the medium - term [78] - **Trading Strategy**: Expect a short - term rebound and consider shorting at high - pressure levels. Wait on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money put options [79][80][81]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial Silicon: Oscillating [7] - Polysilicon: Oscillating [8] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish [86] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is pricing in the expectation of mine restart and continues to trade based on demand narratives. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a state of double - reduction in supply and demand in November, while lithium carbonate shows an increase in supply and strong demand [7][8][86]. - For industrial silicon, due to the dry season in the southwest, production is decreasing, and prices are expected to oscillate between 8200 - 9400. Polysilicon's production cut in November and the steady progress of capacity storage maintain the view of long - term improvement in fundamentals, with prices oscillating between 4.8 - 5.8. Lithium carbonate is bullish, but the upward trend depends on the supply - side restart situation [7][8][86]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Industrial Silicon (SI) - **Supply**: National weekly production is 9.10 tons, a 7.85% decrease from the previous week. In November, the planned production is 38.95 tons, a 13.88% decrease from the previous month. The dry season in the southwest has led to a large - scale furnace shutdown [7]. - **Demand**: The weekly production of polysilicon is 2.92 tons, a 5.05% decrease from the previous week, and the planned production in November is 12.01 tons, a 10.37% decrease from the previous month. The organic silicon weekly production is 4.79 tons, a 5.51% increase from the previous week, and the planned production in November is 21.76 tons, a 3.82% increase from the previous month [7]. - **Inventory**: The explicit inventory is 69.23 tons, a 1.22% increase from the previous week, showing a slight accumulation. The industry inventory is 46.14 tons, a 3.06% increase from the previous week [7]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9245 yuan, a 1.66% increase from the previous week, and the profit per ton is - 45 yuan, a 225 - yuan decrease from the previous week. The average profit per ton in the main production areas has increased [7]. - **Investment View**: In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate between 8200 - 9400 [7]. 3.2 Polysilicon (PS) - **Supply**: National weekly production is 2.92 tons, a 5.05% decrease from the previous week, and the planned production in November is 12.01 tons, a 10.37% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: The weekly production of silicon wafers is 13.24GW, a 1.54% decrease from the previous week, and the planned production in November is 57.66GW, a 4.93% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory is 27.69 tons, a 0.25% increase from the previous week, showing continuous accumulation [8]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41603 yuan, a 0.12% increase from the previous week, and the profit per ton is 8647 yuan, a 50 - yuan decrease from the previous week [8]. - **News**: The total investment in capacity storage may range from 20 billion to 30 billion yuan, but the specific amount is uncertain [8]. - **Investment View**: In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate between 4.8 - 5.8 [8]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: National weekly production is 2.15 tons, a 2.15% increase from the previous week. The planned production in November is about 9.21 tons, a 0.20% decrease from the previous month [86]. - **Import**: In September, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 1.96 tons, a 10.30% decrease from the previous month, and the import volume of lithium concentrate was 52.05 tons, a 10.61% increase from the previous month [86]. - **Material Demand**: The weekly production of iron - lithium materials is 9.69 tons, a 9.52% increase from the previous week, and the weekly production of ternary materials is 1.97 tons, a 2.61% increase from the previous week [86]. - **Terminal Demand**: In September, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.617 million, a 16.29% increase from the previous month, and the sales volume was 1.604 million, a 14.96% increase from the previous month. From January to October, the cumulative tender for energy storage was 201.5GWh, a 44% increase year - on - year [86]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 12.40 tons, a 2.67% decrease from the previous week, showing continuous destocking [86]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cash production cost of外购 lithium mica for lithium extraction is 82865 yuan/ton, a 3.28% decrease from the previous week, and the production profit is - 5626 yuan/ton, a 3204 - yuan increase from the previous week [86]. - **Investment View**: Bullish, but the upward trend depends on the supply - side restart situation [86].

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - This week, the spot price of industrial silicon remained largely stable with minor fluctuations, while the futures price oscillated downward. The downstream demand decreased slightly, and the procurement sentiment was poor. The overall supply - demand was relatively loose, but there were also some bullish factors such as cost increases and production cuts in the southwest [6]. - The recommended strategy is to maintain a short position when the price rises, with an upper pressure level of 9,500 yuan/ton [7]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon was largely stable with minor fluctuations, and the market atmosphere was sluggish. The futures price oscillated strongly due to expectations of production reduction and the establishment of a storage platform. In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. - The recommended strategy is to hold the previous short position, with an oscillation range of 48,000 - 52,000 yuan [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Core Points and Strategies Industrial Silicon - **Market Situation**: The spot price decreased slightly, and the futures price oscillated downward. The southwest region gradually reduced production, and the downstream demand was weak [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: - **Bearish Logic**: High supply in October, high inventory, and limited demand growth in the fourth quarter [6]. - **Bullish Logic**: Cost increase, production cuts in Xinjiang and the southwest, and expectations of the dry season in the southwest [6]. - **Recommended Strategy**: Short positions can be established when the price rises, with an upper pressure level of 9,500 yuan/ton [7]. Polysilicon - **Market Situation**: The spot price was stable with minor fluctuations, and the futures price oscillated strongly. The market was in a state of "strong expectation" and "weak reality" [12]. - **Logic Analysis**: - **Bearish Logic**: High inventory, loose supply, weak downstream transactions, and poor fundamentals [12]. - **Bullish Logic**: Rising component tender prices, policy support, and industrial linkage effects [13]. - **Recommended Strategy**: Hold the previous short position, with an oscillation range of 48,000 - 52,000 yuan [13]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon Data Review Price Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract Si2601 was 9,220 yuan/ton, up 1.32% from last week. The trading volume increased by 29.79%, and the open interest increased by 17.38% [27]. - **Spot**: The prices of Tongyang 5530 and Tongyang 4210 in the East China market remained unchanged from last week [27]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of Si2601 (East China 553) decreased by 52.17%, and the basis of Si2601 (East China 421) decreased by 25% [27]. Supply and Demand Data - **Supply**: The overall industrial silicon production decreased by 7.85% this week, and the opening rate decreased to 34.30%. The southwest region saw a significant decline in production, while the northwest region also had a slight decrease [28][58]. - **Demand**: The demand from downstream industries such as polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy was weak. The production of polysilicon decreased by 5.05%, and the production of organic silicon increased by 5.22% [28]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased to 554,800 tons, up 4.8% from last week, while the futures inventory decreased by 505 tons [28][80]. Cost and Profit Data - **Cost**: The production cost increased mainly due to the rising price of petroleum coke and electricity in the southwest region [78]. - **Profit**: The profit decreased slightly this week, and it is expected to continue to decline next week [78]. 3.3 Polysilicon Data Review Price Data - **Spot**: The price of P - type polysilicon remained unchanged at 44,000 yuan/ton, and the price of N - type polysilicon decreased by 1.54% to 51,000 yuan/ton [119]. - **Futures**: The futures price oscillated strongly due to expectations of production reduction and the establishment of a storage platform [12]. Supply and Demand Data - **Supply**: In November, the polysilicon production is expected to decrease, with a north - south difference in production changes. The overall supply is still at a high level, and the inventory continued to rise [126]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand was weak. The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components decreased, and the procurement sentiment was poor [119][126]. Cost and Profit Data - **Cost**: The average production cost decreased to 41,553 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2% [132]. - **Profit**: The gross profit and gross margin increased slightly, but the overall profit level was still low [132].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel is in a low - level oscillation due to the game between high inventory accumulation and Indonesian risks. Stainless steel has a weak reality that drags down steel prices and is in a short - term low - level oscillation. Industrial silicon has a strong upward drive for the disk due to warehouse receipt depletion. Polysilicon is in a policy vacuum period and the disk returns to fundamentals. Lithium carbonate may face downward risks from mine resumption. Palm oil may see the end of short - term negative news with the MPOB report next week, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts in November. Soybean oil is mainly for long - allocation without an independent upward drive. Soybean meal is oscillating, waiting for the guidance of the USDA supply - demand report. Soybean No.1 is oscillating due to repeated trade sentiment. Corn requires attention to the spot market. Sugar requires attention to policy changes. Cotton is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the near term. Live pigs are accumulating contradictions and waiting for spot confirmation. Peanuts are facing supply pressure [2][4][5][28][69][80]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals** - Nickel: High inventory accumulation and supply - demand imbalance on the one hand, and uncertainties in Indonesian policies on the other hand, result in a low - level oscillation. The replacement of nickel plates with ferronickel in the nickel alloy end and the expected increase in pure nickel production limit the upward elasticity. However, the uncertainty of Indonesian supply governance policies makes short - sellers lack confidence [4]. - Stainless steel: The lack of upward drive in the real fundamentals, with weak consumption in the post - real - estate cycle, high upstream inventory, and a large number of expiring warehouse receipts, leads to a low - level oscillation. Although the supply is elastic, the cost decline also limits the downward space [5]. - **Inventory Tracking** - Refined nickel: On November 7, the 27 - warehouse social inventory of refined nickel in China increased by 1934 tons to 50,680 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 1002 tons to 253,104 tons [6]. - Stainless steel: In October, SMM stainless steel mill inventory was 1.574 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 9% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. On November 6, SMM stainless steel social inventory slightly decreased to 946,000 tons, and the total social inventory of steel - linked stainless steel increased by 0.29% week - on - week [8]. - **Market News** - There are multiple events in Indonesia, such as the takeover of a nickel mine by the forestry working group, sanctions on mining companies, and regulations on the approval of RKAB. In addition, China has suspended a non - official subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia, and Trump has proposed additional tariffs on China [9][10][11]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends** - Industrial silicon: The disk price is strongly oscillated, and the spot price has increased. It closed at 9220 yuan/ton on Friday [28]. - Polysilicon: The disk center has declined, and the spot price is stable, closing at 53,215 yuan/ton on Friday [28]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals** - Industrial silicon: The supply side has a slight reduction in weekly industry inventory. The southwest region has reduced production, and the overall output in November - December is expected to decrease. The demand side is supported by polysilicon and silicone, but the demand may decline in the future [29][30]. - Polysilicon: The short - term weekly output has decreased, and the upstream inventory is flat. The demand side has a decrease in silicon wafer production scheduling [30][31]. - **Market Outlook** - Industrial silicon: The depletion of warehouse receipts provides upward drive for the disk. It is recommended to take a long - position approach when the price drops [33]. - Polysilicon: In the policy vacuum period, the disk trades based on supply - demand. It is recommended to short at high prices [33]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends** - The futures contract oscillates widely in the range of 77,000 - 83,000 tons. The 2511 contract closes at 80,460 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1160 yuan/ton, and the 2601 contract closes at 82,300 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1520 yuan/ton [69]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals** - Supply: The weekly output increases to 21,534 tons, and the inventory decreases by 3405 tons to 124,000 tons. The cost of lithium carbonate may increase due to the supplementary payment of mining rights transfer income [70]. - Demand: In October 2025, the domestic energy storage market completed 10GW/29.4GWh of energy storage system and EPC general contracting bidding, showing a decline compared to September [70]. - **Market Outlook** - There is a risk of price decline after the resumption of mines in Jiangxi. The futures main - contract price is expected to be in the range of 70,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton [71]. 3.4 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Previous Week's Views and Logic** - Palm oil: The market is worried about high production in Malaysia in the fourth quarter, and the 01 contract decreased by 1.59% last week, with a possible short - term stabilization [80]. - Soybean oil: In a large - supply environment, it follows the oil and fat sector to oscillate weakly, but its strong export demand makes it relatively strong among oil and fat varieties, and the 01 contract increased by 0.39% last week [80]. - **This Week's Views and Logic** - Palm oil: Malaysia may have high production in the fourth quarter, and the inventory is expected to be high. Indonesia has large export pressure in November. Although it may show a short - term end of negative news, the market has not fully priced in the high production in November - December. The inventory at the origin is expected to increase, and the price needs additional demand stimulation to stabilize [81]. - Soybean oil: The production situation in Brazil is good, and the supply is large. The domestic soybean arrival is sufficient, and the export demand may maintain the monthly de - stocking process. It is mainly for long - allocation but has no independent upward drive [84].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Volatile; Polysilicon: Volatile [1] Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices may have a clearer lower limit, and it is recommended to buy on dips and take profits at high levels. Polysilicon has entered a critical point of policy - fundamental game, and it is advisable to consider short - selling on rallies [3][14][15] Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - Industrial silicon Si2601 contract rose 120 yuan/ton to 9220 yuan/ton week - on - week. SMM spot East China oxygen - blown 553 remained flat at 9450 yuan/ton, and Xinjiang 99 rose 50 yuan/ton to 8850 yuan/ton. Polysilicon PS2601 contract fell 3195 yuan/ton to 53215 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of polysilicon N - type re -投料 was flat at 53200 yuan/ton [8][9] 2. Dry Season Production Cuts Materialize, Platform Companies Fall Short of Expectations Again - **Industrial silicon**: Futures main contract fluctuated strongly. Yunnan's开工 decreased by 22 units to 21, Sichuan's by 23 units to 22, while Inner Mongolia and Ningxia each added 1 unit. Southwest furnaces may further limit production in mid - to - late November, with the start - up furnaces in Southwest expected to drop to about 20 by the end of November. Northern production is stable. SMM industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 0.6 million tons week - on - week, and sample factory inventory increased by 0.39 million tons. After updating the balance sheet, a slight inventory build - up in November and a 1 - million - ton inventory reduction in December are expected [10] - **Organic silicon**: Prices fluctuated. Jiangxi Xinghuo's 200,000 - ton plant is expected to resume production on the 31st, Tangshan Sanyou's Phase III plant shut down, Hubei Xingrui's plant is operating at 70% capacity, Xin'an Chemical's plant is under maintenance, Shandong Dongyue's Phase III plant shut down, and Yunnan Energy Investment's plant is expected to resume production on the 4th. The overall enterprise start - up rate was 72.41%, weekly output was 47,900 tons (up 5.51% week - on - week), and inventory was 43,500 tons (down 1.36% week - on - week). Prices are expected to fluctuate [10][11] - **Polysilicon**: Futures main contract dropped significantly. Spot prices are under pressure. Leading first - tier manufacturers' dense re -投料 prices are above 51 - 53 yuan/kg, second - and third - tier manufacturers' prices are 47 - 50 yuan/kg, and low - quality supplies' prices are weakening. Granular material prices are 50 - 51 yuan/kg. November's production is expected to drop to 115,000 tons. As of November 6th, factory inventory was 259,000 tons (down 0.2 million tons week - on - week). In November, it enters the critical point of policy - fundamental game, and the fundamentals are more severe than in October. If platform companies underperform again, spot prices may fall [11] - **Silicon wafers**: Prices declined. M10 wafers' mainstream price is 1.35 yuan/piece, with some dropping to 1.33 yuan/piece; G12R wafers' mainstream price is 1.35 yuan/piece, with low - price transactions at 1.30 - 1.33 yuan/piece; G12 wafers' mainstream price dropped to 1.65 - 1.68 yuan/piece. November's production is expected to be 57.66GW, a decrease of 2.99GW from October. As of November 6th, inventory was 17.52GW (down 1.41GW week - on - week). The supply - demand and inventory situation in the silicon wafer segment is controllable, but it is under pressure due to the battery segment [12] - **Battery cells**: Prices continued to fall. Indian demand shifted to Southeast Asian production bases, and M10 battery cells' mainstream price dropped to 0.305 yuan/watt. Domestic demand also declined, and G21R and G12 battery cells' mainstream prices dropped to 0.28 and 0.30 yuan/watt. As of November 3rd, export factory inventory was 3.85GW (down 2.17GW week - on - week). November's production is expected to be 57.4GW. With weakening domestic and foreign demand, prices may decline further [12] - **Components**: Prices were basically stable. Centralized components mainly executed previous orders, with mainstream delivery prices at 0.64 - 0.70 yuan/watt; distributed project large - customer delivery prices were 0.66 - 0.70 yuan/watt. Some centralized procurement projects had demand for high - power components above 700W, and leading component manufacturers raised quotes for such components by 0.04 - 0.06 yuan/watt to 0.72 - 0.75 yuan/watt. Demand declined significantly, and some enterprises reported orders falling short of expectations. November's domestic production is expected to be 44.4GW (down 1GW month - on - month). There are concerns about a significant drop in December's production. As of November 3rd, finished - product inventory was 31.2GW (down 0.6GW week - on - week). Component enterprises are responding to the guiding prices, but actual transaction prices need attention [13] 3. Investment Recommendations - **Industrial silicon**: After previous hedging, short - term price drops are unlikely to cause production cuts. Prices need to break through 10,000 yuan/ton to bring significant supply increases. It is recommended to buy on dips and take profits at high levels [14] - **Polysilicon**: It has entered the critical point of policy - fundamental game, and the fundamentals are more severe. If platform companies underperform again, spot prices may fall. It is advisable to consider short - selling on rallies [15] 4. Hot News Compilation - In September 2025, the national photovoltaic power generation utilization rate was 95%, and the January - September utilization rate was also 95% [16] - A Chinese company invested $85 million to build a factory in Angola to process quartz ore into metallic silicon, with a monthly production capacity of 1,000 tons per electric furnace. The project has provided jobs for 500 Angolan and 50 Chinese employees [16] - On November 5th, the environmental impact assessment of a 6.2GW TOPCon solar cell technical renovation project in Jiangsu was publicized, with a total investment of 22 million yuan [17] 5. Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial silicon**: Includes data on spot prices, weekly production in different regions, social inventory, and sample factory inventory [19][22][27] - **Organic silicon**: Covers data on DMC spot prices, weekly profit, factory inventory, and weekly production [29][30] - **Polysilicon**: Involves data on spot prices, weekly gross profit, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production [33][37] - **Silicon wafers**: Contains data on spot prices, profit calculation, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production [39][43] - **Battery cells**: Has data on spot prices, profit calculation, export factory weekly inventory, and enterprise monthly production [44][50] - **Components**: Includes data on spot prices, profit calculation, finished - product inventory, and enterprise monthly production [52][57]

Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Industry Weekly Report [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views - The international oil price is expected to oscillate in the short - term but face continuous oversupply pressure in the medium - term. For oil, it is advisable to try short - selling on rebounds. [7][8] - The asphalt market is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to weak supply and demand and a narrowing basis after the decline. [35] - The PTA market is expected to rise slightly, and the ethylene glycol market is expected to continue a slight rebound. [62] - The price of polyester staple fiber may rise slightly, with cost support and weak supply - demand factors. [71] - The soda ash market is expected to see the futures price drop to near the recent low, and it is advisable to short - sell on rallies if it breaks through the 1200 yuan/ton resistance level. [79] - The industrial silicon futures price will continue to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but there is strong resistance above. [101] - The polysilicon futures price will oscillate in a wide range, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the range and wait for policy signals for breakthrough opportunities. [123] - The pulp market will have a limited short - term rebound and is advisable for reverse arbitrage. [140] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: International oil prices oscillated this week with a narrowing amplitude. The market lacks short - term drivers and is expected to oscillate. Medium - term oversupply pressure persists. Operationally, try short - selling on rebounds. [7][8] - **Fundamental Changes**: US crude inventories increased, refinery inputs rose seasonally, and refined product inventories decreased. OPEC+ will stop increasing production in Q1 2026, but it's hard to reverse the oversupply. Supply growth far exceeds demand growth, and the inventory accumulation rate is accelerating. [9][10][11] Asphalt - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The cost end (crude oil) lacks support. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and the basis has narrowed after the decline. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. [34][35] - **Fundamental Changes**: The cost end has mid - term oversupply pressure. The asphalt production capacity may increase slightly next week. Demand shows regional differentiation, with weak speculative demand. Factory and social inventories both decreased this week. [36][37][39] Polyester - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: Crude oil fundamentals are mixed, and PX is expected to oscillate strongly, supporting PTA costs. PTA is expected to rise slightly, and ethylene glycol is expected to rebound slightly. [61][62] - **Main Driving Forces**: Downstream consumption is stable in the short - term but has a weakening expectation. PTA supply may decrease, and its fundamentals are strong. Ethylene glycol has cost support and a rebound demand. [63][64][66] Polyester Staple Fiber - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The cost end supports the market, but supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. The price may rise slightly. [71] - **Main Driving Forces**: Downstream consumption support is limited. The short - fiber industry's operation is stable, and supply is sufficient. Cost support is strong, but supply - demand factors drag down the price. [72][73][74] Soda Ash - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The futures price oscillated weakly this week, with supply remaining high, demand weakening, and inventory slightly increasing. It is expected to drop further, and it is advisable to short - sell on rallies if it breaks through 1200 yuan/ton. [76][78][79] - **Market Conditions**: Supply is stable with a slight decline in production. Inventory is at a high level and continues to accumulate. Spot prices are expected to oscillate narrowly. Glass demand for soda ash is weakening, and exports decreased in September. [80][83][93] Industrial Silicon - **Futures Review and Outlook**: The futures price has been oscillating strongly recently. The main driving force is the seasonal production reduction in the southwest, but the supply - demand imbalance improvement is limited. The price may continue to oscillate strongly in the short - term with strong upper resistance. [101] - **Fundamental Overview**: The price of industrial silicon and its related products is stable. Inventory is slowly accumulating, and production is decreasing. The demand for polysilicon, organic silicon, and other products is relatively stable. [102][103][105] Polysilicon - **Market Review and Outlook**: The price is weaker than other varieties this week. The supply - demand improvement drive is limited. The price will continue to be in a stalemate in the short - term and oscillate in a wide range. It is advisable to buy on dips in the range and wait for policy signals for breakthrough opportunities. [123] - **Photovoltaic Industry Fundamentals**: The prices of main products in the industry are stable. Inventory has increased slightly. Production in the supply - end may decline in November, mid - stream demand is stable, and terminal demand is weak. [124][125][126] Pulp - **Market Review and Outlook**: The futures price rebounded this week. Macro pressure has weakened, imports have decreased, and inventory has declined, but the industry profit improvement is limited. The short - term rebound space is limited, and reverse arbitrage is advisable. [139][140] - **Fundamental Changes**: The pulp shipment volume of major producing countries in August increased. China's pulp imports decreased in October. Global and domestic pulp inventories have different trends. Downstream paper performance is still differentiated. [141][149][156]

Core Viewpoint - The recent trend of price increases in various sectors, particularly in chemical materials related to photovoltaic and lithium battery industries, is highlighted as a significant market theme. Group 1: Chemical Industry Performance - The basic chemical sector achieved a revenue growth of 2.6% year-on-year and a net profit growth of 9.4% in the first three quarters of the year, indicating overall improvement in profitability [1] - Factors contributing to a positive long-term outlook for the chemical sector include improved supply expectations due to "anti-involution" policies, prices at historical lows, and low inventory levels [1] Group 2: Lithium Battery Sector - The lithium battery sector saw a strong performance in the afternoon trading session, with significant gains in upstream materials [4] - Yongtai Technology's stock surged to its daily limit, with a total market value of 19.492 billion yuan, and its stock price has increased by 135.68% year-to-date [1] Group 3: Price Increases in Key Materials - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate reached 103,500 yuan per ton on October 30, a 72.5% increase from 60,000 yuan per ton on September 30, indicating tight supply and potential for further price increases [5] - The price of lithium iron phosphate also rose from 35,600 yuan per ton on October 23 to 37,000 yuan per ton on October 30, reflecting a 3.9% increase [5] Group 4: Photovoltaic Sector Developments - The upstream materials in the photovoltaic sector, particularly the organic silicon segment, showed strong performance, with Dongyue Silicon Material hitting its daily limit [6] - In the third quarter, the prices of four main materials in the photovoltaic industry (silicon material, silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules) increased by an average of 35%, marking the largest quarterly increase in three years [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, A - shares lack a clear upward main line, market trading volume remains low, and the stock index continues to fluctuate, accumulating momentum for the next round of upward movement. Meanwhile, with policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, there is still strong support below the stock index [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space, showing an oscillating trend [1]. - **Copper**: The tight pattern of US dollar liquidity has eased, market risk appetite has recovered, and copper prices have stopped falling [1]. - **Aluminum**: Recently, the industrial - side driving force is limited, and the macro - level benefits have been digested, so aluminum prices are oscillating [1]. - **Alumina**: With still a small profit in production, domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, and both production and inventory are increasing, putting pressure on the spot price. Recently, attention should be paid to the cost support [1]. - **Zinc**: The US government shutdown has reached the longest historical record, and market risk - aversion sentiment has increased. The LME zinc inventory has been continuously decreasing, and the short - squeeze movement has driven zinc prices higher. However, considering the domestic oversupply, caution is needed when chasing high prices [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Nickel**: The better - than - expected US ADP data has alleviated concerns about the US economic recession, but the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has been suppressed, and market risk appetite has fluctuated. Indonesia has recently restricted the approval of nickel - related smelting projects again, but the approved projects are not affected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the approval of nickel - ore quotas in 2026. Nickel prices may oscillate in the short term, and high inventory pressure should be watched out for. It is recommended to trade within a short - term range, and the long - term surplus pattern of primary nickel will continue [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The better - than - expected US ADP data has alleviated concerns about the US economic recession, but the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has been suppressed, and market risk appetite has fluctuated. Indonesia has restricted the approval of nickel - related smelting projects again, but the approved projects are not affected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the progress of the approval of Indonesian nickel - ore quotas, and the premium at the ore end is currently stable. The price of raw - material ferronickel has weakened slightly, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and the steel mills' production plan for October is stable. Macro - sentiment is fluctuating, steel mills have recently lifted price limits, and stainless - steel futures are oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to trade short - term and look for opportunities to sell on rallies [1]. - **Tin**: Recently, the positive macro - sentiment has been digested. Considering that the raw - material end of tin has not recovered and the new - quality demand is expected to be good, it is still recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the long - term [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Judges of the high - court generally question the legitimacy of tariffs, increasing market uncertainty and supporting precious - metal prices. However, the resilience of US economic data has disrupted the interest - rate cut expectation. Precious metals are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production capacity in the northwest is continuously resuming, the start - up in the southwest is weaker than in previous years, and the impact of the dry season is weakened [1]. - **Polysilicon**: In the long - term, there is an expectation of production - capacity reduction. In the fourth quarter, the terminal installation will increase marginally. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, and market sentiment has faded [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles is approaching, the energy - storage demand is strong, but the hedging pressure is large [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar**: There are concerns about the potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the macro - sentiment is realized, attention should be paid to the upward pressure. It is advisable to participate in the out - of - the - money accumulative put option strategy [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The off - season effect of the industry is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Similarly, attention should be paid to the upward pressure on prices after the macro - sentiment is realized [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Near - month production is restricted, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity for far - month contracts [1]. - **Sulfur**: The direct demand is good, and there is cost support, but the supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the sector is under pressure, with limited price rebound space [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coking coal is struggling near the previous high, repeatedly testing the support. The high point of the coke futures price has included the expectation of five rounds of price increases, but the actual three - round price increase has been delayed, and the game is intense. Based on the tight supply, coke and coking coal are relatively strong, but considering the weakening of steel prices and the potential weakening of steel demand in November, the futures prices of coke and coking coal are likely to return to the oscillating range after a false breakout. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, and in the long - term, it is still advisable to go long at low prices. Industrial customers can consider selling hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: In the short term, palm oil still faces the dual pressures of seasonal production increase and weak exports. However, starting from November, Malaysia enters the traditional production - reduction cycle. If export data improve significantly, it may trigger a staged rebound [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: According to the China - US negotiation agreement, China will purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans in the next two months, which may bring a loose expectation for soybean oil in the fourth quarter, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. The actual impact needs to be observed [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders has brought the expectation of Sino - Canadian relaxation, and the bumper harvest of Canadian rapeseed has put pressure on the futures price [1]. - **Cotton**: Although the production capacity in Xinjiang is expanding, the production capacity in the inland may decrease marginally. At the same time, due to the thinning of spinning profits in Xinjiang, the operating rate may also be affected. The contradiction between the expansion of Xinjiang's production capacity and the reduction of spinning profits makes the cotton demand in the new year highly uncertain. The current futures price has fully priced in the selling pressure of new crops, and the downward space is limited, but under the background of a record - high production of new crops, the basis and futures price may continue to be under pressure [1]. - **Sugar**: Typhoons before and after the National Day have had an adverse impact on the sugar - cane harvest and production in South China. There is a seasonal upward impetus for sugar prices in the short term. In the medium - term, considering the good growth of sugar cane this year, the rebound space after the new - sugar listing is expected to be limited [1]. - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean purchase and crushing profit is poor, and the domestic futures price is undervalued. With the expectation of China's purchase of US soybeans, the import cost of US soybeans is expected to rise, and the domestic futures price is expected to rebound in the short term to repair the crushing profit. However, the current loose supply of domestic soybean - meal spot and the expected loose global soybean supply in the long - term limit the rebound height [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The current trading logic of paper pulp is related to the trading of old warehouse receipts for the November contract. With weak downstream demand, the futures price is under great pressure. It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread between the November and January contracts [1]. - **Log**: The fundamentals of logs have declined, but the spot price is firm. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the risk - return ratio of short - selling is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Live Pigs**: In the past half - month, the spot price has risen alternately in the north and south due to secondary fattening, frozen - product storage, and reluctance to sell, which has postponed the production capacity. There is still pressure on the November slaughter. In the short term, the futures price is at the same level as the spot price, and the futures price will follow the spot price to stabilize and then weaken [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the short - term geopolitical speculation has cooled down, and the suspension of some China - US trade - tariff policies has eased market sentiment [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Venezuelan crude oil is sufficient. The profit of asphalt is high [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: There is strong support from raw - material costs, the mid - stream inventory is continuously decreasing, and the commodity - market atmosphere is positive [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The decline of crude - oil prices has reduced the cost support of butadiene, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose. High - production and high - inventory have not suppressed the price, and the mainstream supply price has been continuously reduced [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The gasoline cracking price has risen above $15, prompting refineries to increase gasoline production and reduce the feed of aromatic - hydrocarbon units. Overseas device failures and the decline of the operating load of some domestic reforming units, as well as the rotation inspection of large domestic PTA devices, have led to a decline in domestic PTA production [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The decline of crude - oil prices has led to a decline in ethylene - glycol prices, while the rise of coal prices has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The "Golden September and Silver October" of the polyester industry is coming to an end, and the domestic demand has not significantly declined [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The rebound of PTA prices has strengthened the basis of short - fiber. Short - fiber prices continue to fluctuate closely with costs [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is still weak, the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have declined, the arbitrage window from Northeast Asia to the US is still closed, the profit of domestic styrene has decreased, the number of styrene - device overhauls has gradually increased, and crude - oil prices have continued to fall [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment has eased slightly, and the limited domestic demand restricts the upward space. There is support from anti - involution and cost - end factors [1]. - **PE**: Under high - supply, the inventory pressure is large, the intensity of overhauls has weakened, and the downstream demand is slowly increasing, but the peak season is not prosperous [1]. - **PP**: The support from overhauls is limited, and the new - device production has increased the supply pressure. The downstream improvement is less than expected, and the futures price has returned to the fundamentals, showing a weak - oscillating trend [1]. - **PVC**: The overhauls have decreased compared with the previous period, and the new production capacity has been released, increasing the supply pressure. The rise of coal prices has strengthened the cost support of PVC [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Many alumina projects in Guangxi are planned to be put into production, the subsequent concentration of overhauls will decrease, the high - concentration caustic soda is at a negative premium, the absolute price is low, and the near - month warehouse receipts are limited, so there is a risk of short - squeeze [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil - gas fundamentals are continuously loose, the CP/FEI prices have weakened, the valuation of the domestic LPG futures price has been repaired, and the domestic spot fundamentals are stable due to short - term cooling and chemical rigid demand [1]. Others - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: The positive macro - sentiment has been gradually digested, the expectation of price increases in the peak season has been priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant movements in the new energy sector, particularly the performance of the ChiNext New Energy ETF, which rose by 1.08% with notable gains in its constituent stocks [1] - The multi-crystalline silicon restructuring "consortium" platform is in the planning stages, with a proposed fund size of approximately 70 billion yuan, aiming to leverage 10 billion yuan to facilitate a "debt acquisition" strategy [1] - The chairman of GCL-Poly Energy Holdings, Zhu Gongshan, indicated that 17 leading companies have largely agreed to form the consortium, with expectations to complete the initiative by 2025 [1] Group 2 - The ChiNext New Energy ETF is the largest ETF tracking the ChiNext New Energy Index, covering various sectors within the new energy and electric vehicle industries, including batteries and photovoltaics [2] - The ETF has the highest elasticity, with a maximum increase of 20cm, and the lowest fee rate, with a total management and custody fee of only 0.2% [2] - As of October 31, 2025, the ETF's scale reached 829 million yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 90.05 million yuan over the past month, and it has a storage content of 51% and solid-state battery content of 30%, aligning with current market trends [2]