Recent Key Events - The recent US-China trade negotiations in Kuala Lumpur focused on key economic issues, including maritime logistics, tariffs, and agricultural trade, leading to a basic consensus on resolving mutual concerns [1][9] - The Chinese government released the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the development of strategic emerging industries such as new energy, aerospace, and quantum technology [2][10] - Nvidia announced collaborations to develop new supercomputers and autonomous vehicle fleets, projecting GPU sales to reach $500 billion by the end of 2026 [4][12] Market Situation - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a pullback in October, with the Hang Seng Index declining from 26,856 points at the end of September to 26,346 points by October 28, a drop of 1.9% [13] - The Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 5.8% during the same period, while both indices have seen significant gains year-to-date, with increases of 31.3% and 36.4% respectively [13] - Net inflows from southbound trading in Hong Kong stocks reached HKD 701 billion in October, indicating stable investment interest [14] Current Investment Recommendations - Focus on growth-oriented energy and non-ferrous metal companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, China Qinfa, and China Hongqiao [23] - Pay attention to internet companies benefiting from AI model iterations, including Alibaba and Kuaishou [23] - Consider undervalued and high-growth electronic component firms like QiuTai Technology and AAC Technologies [23] - Monitor new energy vehicle companies and those recently listed in Hong Kong, such as Leap Motor, Xiaopeng Motors, and Pony.ai [23] Company-Specific Insights Luoyang Molybdenum (3993.HK) - The company reported a revenue of CNY 145.5 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit increase of 72.6% year-on-year [24][30] - Production of copper and cobalt exceeded expectations, with copper output reaching 543,400 tons, a 14.14% increase [25][30] China Qinfa (0866.HK) - The company achieved a revenue of CNY 1.089 billion in the first half of 2025, with a focus on optimizing its operations in Indonesia [32][33] - The divestment of underperforming assets is expected to enhance financial metrics and allow for greater focus on profitable ventures [33] China Hongqiao (1378.HK) - The company reported a revenue of CNY 81.04 billion in the first half of 2025, a 10.1% increase, driven by higher aluminum prices and lower electricity costs [39][40] - The increase in production capacity is expected to further enhance profitability [41] Alibaba (9988.HK) - Alibaba's revenue for the first quarter of FY2026 was CNY 247.65 billion, with a 2% year-on-year growth, driven by its e-commerce and cloud services [45][48] - The company is focusing on enhancing its instant retail capabilities and AI-driven cloud services [46][48] Kuaishou (1024.HK) - Kuaishou reported a revenue of CNY 35 billion in Q2 2025, reflecting a 13.1% year-on-year growth, with significant contributions from e-commerce [50] - The company is optimizing its marketing strategies and enhancing its AI capabilities to drive future growth [51][52] QiuTai Technology (1478.HK) - The company achieved a revenue of CNY 8.83 billion in the first half of 2025, with a notable increase in profit margins [53] - QiuTai is expanding its product offerings in the IoT sector and enhancing its competitive edge through vertical integration [54]

Core Viewpoint - The State Administration for Market Regulation announced that by the end of September 2025, China's international standard conversion rate is expected to reach 86%, achieving the goals set in the National Standardization Development Outline and supporting the country's green and low-carbon development [1][2]. Group 1: National Standard System Construction - The National Standardization Development Outline has led to the establishment of China's first carbon peak and carbon neutrality standard system, providing top-level guidance for revising green and low-carbon standards across various sectors [1]. - In 2022, 49 national standards for greenhouse gas emission accounting were released, covering major carbon-intensive industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, and electricity, addressing the challenges of accurate carbon accounting [1]. - 13 national standards for product carbon footprints have been published for widely traded products like plastics and furniture, providing technical support for China's product carbon footprint management system [1]. Group 2: International Standard Conversion - The implementation of the "Precise Standard Adoption" and "Efficient Conversion" approach has shortened the international standard conversion time by nearly six months since June 1 of this year [2]. - A total of 410 international standards have been converted and adopted in areas such as carbon emissions, carbon accounting, and carbon capture [2]. - The overall international standard conversion rate is projected to reach 86% by September 2025, aligning with the goals of the National Standardization Development Outline [2]. Group 3: International Standardization Participation - China is actively participating in international standardization efforts, utilizing bilateral cooperation mechanisms to promote mutual recognition of carbon information disclosure and carbon emission monitoring standards [2]. - Chinese experts have led 228 working groups and proposed 442 international standard proposals during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, contributing to the achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals [2]. - Collaboration with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative and BRICS nations is being strengthened to advance international standards in green and low-carbon fields such as new energy vehicles and circular economy [2].

Report Summary - This is a futures research report by Baocheng Futures, presenting arbitrage data for various commodities on October 31, 2025. The report includes data on power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Not provided in the report. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Power Coal - The report provides the basis and spread data for power coal from October 24 to October 30, 2025. The basis remained at -31.40 yuan/ton during this period, and the spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) were all 0.00 yuan/ton [1][2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: The report shows the basis and price ratio data for fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from October 24 to October 30, 2025. For example, on October 30, the basis for fuel oil was -75.56 yuan/ton, and the price ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1406 [7]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - **Basis**: The basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from October 24 to October 30, 2025 are presented. For instance, on October 30, the basis for rubber was -600 yuan/ton, and for methanol was 4.5 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread for rubber was 90 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from October 24 to October 30, 2025 are given. On October 30, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2211 yuan/ton [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from October 24 to October 30, 2025 are shown. On October 30, the basis for rebar was 104.0 yuan/ton, and for iron ore was 4.5 yuan/ton [20]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, 9(10) - 5 month) for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread for rebar was 63 yuan/ton [19]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from October 24 to October 30, 2025 are presented. On October 30, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.88 [19]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: The domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from October 24 to October 30, 2025 are given. On October 30, the basis for copper was -30 yuan/ton, and for aluminum was 15 yuan/ton [29]. - **London Market**: The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit/loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on October 30, 2025 are provided. For example, the LME spread for copper was (21.39) [32]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from October 24 to October 30, 2025 are shown. On October 30, the basis for soybeans No.1 was -123 yuan/ton, and for soybeans No.2 was 338.16 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) for various agricultural products are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread for soybeans No.1 was 41 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads for soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. on October 30, 2025 are presented. The soybeans No.1/corn ratio was 1.94 [37]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from October 24 to October 30, 2025 are given. On October 30, the basis for CSI 300 was 19.91 [49]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the next month - current month spread for CSI 300 was -40.4 [51].

Commodity Rating Based on Fundamental Analysis - **Trend Bearish**: No specific commodities mentioned - **Oscillating Bearish**: Fuel oil, Urea, Caustic soda, Alumina, Red dates, Live pigs, Asphalt [2] - **Oscillating**: CSI 300 Index Futures, Industrial silicon, SSE 50 Index Futures, CSI 500 Index Futures, CSI 1000 Index Futures, Liquefied petroleum gas, Polysilicon, Crude oil, 10-year Treasury bond futures, 2-year Treasury bond futures, Cotton, Rubber, 30-year Treasury bond futures, 5-year Treasury bond futures, Lithium carbonate, Cotton yarn, Sugar, Synthetic rubber, Aluminum, Pulp, PTA Ethylene glycol, Offset printing paper, Corn, Bottle chips, p-Xylene, Short fiber, Ferrosilicon, Silicomanganese, Glass, Eggs, Soda ash, Coke, Hot-rolled coil, Rebar, Iron ore, Coking coal, Apples, Methanol, Logs [2] - **Oscillating Bullish**: Plastic [2] - **Trend Bullish**: No specific commodities mentioned Commodity Rating Based on Quantitative Indicators - **Bearish**: Soybean meal 2, Rapeseed meal, Soybean meal, Sugar, Coke, PTA, Silicomanganese [4] - **Oscillating**: Methanol, Soybean meal 1, Corn, Shanghai Lead, Shanghai Silver, Shanghai Aluminum, Shanghai Copper, Polypropylene, Coking coal, Eggs, PVC, Plastic, Corn starch, Iron ore, Hot-rolled coil, Shanghai Zinc, Zhengzhou Cotton, Rebar, Rubber [4] - **Bullish**: Glass, Asphalt, Palm oil, Rapeseed oil, Shanghai Tin, Soybean oil, Shanghai Gold [4] Macroeconomic News - China and the US reached consensus on economic and trade issues, with the US canceling the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and suspending relevant export control and investigation measures for one year. China will adjust or suspend relevant countermeasures accordingly [8] - The ECB maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2% for the third consecutive time, believing that inflation has reached the 2% target. The Eurozone's Q3 GDP grew better than expected, but member states' performance diverged [9] - The Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% for the sixth consecutive time, with two policy committee members opposing and suggesting a 25-basis-point rate hike [10] - The CSRC approved the registration of Moore Thread's IPO on the STAR Market, with the company planning to raise 8 billion yuan [9] - The weighted average interest rate of newly issued commercial personal housing loans in Q3 2025 was 3.07% [9] Macro - Financial Market Stock Index Futures - Adopt a strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation. A - shares fell on heavy volume, but the lithium - battery industry chain was strong. The Q3 reports of A - share listed companies showed that revenue and net profit increased year - on - year, and the profit growth rate in Q3 improved significantly. Monetary policy is expected to be further loosened in Q4 [12] Treasury Bond Futures - Monetary policy loosening is in the implementation stage, and bonds still have upward momentum. The capital market is balanced and loose, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP [13][14] Black Metals Steel and Iron Ore - In the short term, the black metal market may adjust slightly and maintain an oscillating trend. Policy has a significant impact on market sentiment. Demand for building materials is weak, while demand for coils is fair. Supply remains high, and steel mill profits are low. The valuation of steel is expected to remain between valley - and peak - electricity costs, and the rebound space of steel prices is limited [15] Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to oscillate strongly in the short term. Supply is gradually recovering, but there are still expectations of production checks and environmental protection restrictions. However, the weakening of steel demand in the off - season may limit the price rebound [17] Ferroalloys - It is recommended to take a bearish position on the medium - term trend of ferroalloys and control positions. The prices of ferroalloys rose in the morning and then fell in the afternoon due to the overall market decline [17] Soda Ash and Glass - It is recommended to wait and see. The inventory of soda ash is basically stable, and the supply is high. The inventory of glass decreased slightly, and the spot price is stable. Future attention should be paid to demand in the peak season and fuel upgrade progress [19] Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - It is recommended to wait and see for aluminum. Although the market tension has eased, domestic demand is weak. For alumina, it is recommended to short on rallies as the supply surplus pressure is large, and cost support is weakening [21] Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate will continue to oscillate strongly in the short term due to strong demand and a decrease in supply [22] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon will oscillate within a range as the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Polysilicon will also oscillate narrowly, with the lower limit supported by spot prices and the upper limit depending on capacity merger policies [23][24] Agricultural Products Cotton - It is recommended to be cautious when operating on the rebound of cotton prices. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak. Although Zhengzhou cotton is supported by cost and basis repair, the overall supply pressure still restricts the rebound space [27] Sugar - It is recommended to either conduct short - rolling operations or wait and see. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and domestic supply pressure is increasing. However, cost support and import restrictions may limit the decline [28][29] Eggs - It is recommended to wait and see or try short - selling on rallies. The egg industry is in the process of capacity reduction, and the futures market is strong. However, the supply - demand pattern is still loose, and the increase in spot prices may be limited [30] Apples - Apples are expected to oscillate strongly. The prices in the western producing areas are firm, and the national inventory is lower than the same period last year. Future attention should be paid to price changes, inventory progress, and buyer sentiment [33] Corn - It is recommended to be cautious when shorting near - month contracts and consider going long on far - month contracts. Corn prices are oscillating. The support from state - owned grain depots and rigid demand may drive a short - term rebound, but new grain supply pressure and potential wheat substitution may limit the upward movement [34] Red Dates - It is recommended to short on rallies or wait and see. The market price of red dates is stable, and there is an expectation of a lower opening price [35] Live Pigs - It is recommended to short near - month contracts on rallies. The spot price is weakening, and the supply is abundant. The market lacks the conditions for a significant price rebound [35][36] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The price of crude oil is likely to fall as the supply - demand contradiction is becoming more prominent. EIA inventory decreased unexpectedly, but OPEC+ may increase production, and demand may be suppressed [38] Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil will follow the trend of oil prices. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the impact of sanctions on Russian supply [39] Plastics - Polyolefins may have an emotional rebound in the short term due to improved market sentiment, but the supply pressure is large, and it is recommended to hedge after the rebound [39] Rubber - Rubber will oscillate as the macro - level benefits have been realized, and there is no obvious fundamental logic. Short - term double - selling strategies can be considered [40] Methanol - It is recommended to adopt an oscillating strategy and consider going long in small amounts after a rebound driver appears. The market is highly volatile due to factors such as Iranian imports and gas restrictions, and inventory is high [41][42] Caustic Soda - It is recommended to take a bearish - oscillating view. The supply of caustic soda exceeds demand, but coal prices may provide some support. The risk of short - selling lies in the cost support after the weakening of liquid chlorine prices [43] Asphalt - Asphalt is expected to oscillate weakly. Oil prices are affected by geopolitical and macro factors, and asphalt demand is entering the end - stage, with production set to increase again [44] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - LPG will follow the trend of crude oil in the short term. Supply is abundant, and demand may weaken. There is a possibility that LPG may underperform crude oil in the coming week [47]

Market Overview - The A-share market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war around the 4000-point mark, with significant fluctuations and differing opinions among investors [2][9][10] - The recent index movements are driven primarily by a few large-cap technology stocks, leading to a disparity in returns between retail investors and the index [10][12] - Current policies indicate a supportive stance, with liquidity remaining reasonably ample, suggesting potential for the index to challenge the 4000-point level again [10][12] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a cautious approach to investment, emphasizing the importance of controlling positions while balancing short-term defense and medium-term layout [3][11] - Key investment themes include: - **Technology Growth**: Focus on sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and robotics, supported by government policies and strong quarterly performances [3][11] - **High Dividend Defensive Stocks**: Sectors like banking, public utilities, and transportation are highlighted for their ability to provide safety margins during market volatility [3][11] - **Cyclical Sectors**: Areas such as photovoltaics, batteries, and rare earths are expected to benefit from policy changes aimed at reducing competition and improving profitability [3][11] Sector Performance - The energy metals and battery sectors have shown strong performance, with significant gains noted in recent trading sessions [7][8] - The quantum technology sector is also gaining traction, driven by government initiatives aimed at fostering future industries [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - Finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, recommend buying on dips; neutral on government bonds, suggest holding a wait - and - see attitude [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, suggest range trading; bearish on glass, recommend selling call options [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Bullish on copper at low prices, suggest holding small long positions cautiously without chasing highs; neutral on aluminum, suggest taking profit on long positions when favorable factors are realized; neutral on nickel, suggest waiting and watching or shorting on rallies; neutral on tin, suggest range trading; neutral on gold and silver, suggest range trading [1][9][10][11][14][16][18] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol, suggest range trading; bearish on soda ash 01 contract, recommend a short - selling strategy; neutral on polyolefins, suggest a bearish - biased range trading strategy [1][19][21][22][24][25][27][28][29][30] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, suggest a bullish - biased range trading strategy; neutral on PTA, suggest range trading; neutral on apples, suggest a bullish - biased range trading strategy; neutral on jujubes, suggest range trading [1][34][35][36] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Bearish on pigs, recommend shorting on rallies; bearish on eggs, recommend shorting on rallies; bearish on corn, suggest a bearish - biased range trading strategy; bullish on soybean meal at low prices, suggest holding long positions; neutral on oils and fats, suggest a high - level adjustment strategy with a focus on the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [1][38][40][42][44][46][52] Core Views - The positive results of the Sino - US talks and the positive stance of the 15th Five - Year Plan suggest that subsequent policies are worth looking forward to, and stock indices may fluctuate with a bullish bias [5] - The Sino - US talks, policy announcements, and market sentiment lead to a complex situation for government bonds, which are expected to fluctuate [5][6] - In the black building materials sector, the short - term supply shortage of coking coal and the low valuation of rebar support their prices, while the fundamentals of glass are deteriorating [7][8] - For non - ferrous metals, factors such as supply shortages, policy expectations, and seasonal changes affect the prices of copper, aluminum, nickel, tin, gold, and silver, with different trading strategies recommended for each [9][10][11][14][16][18] - In the energy and chemicals sector, factors like cost, supply, demand, and macro - policies influence the prices of various products, and most are expected to fluctuate [19][20][21][22][24][25][27][28][29] - In the cotton and textile industry chain, the supply - demand situation and market sentiment affect the prices of cotton, PTA, apples, and jujubes, with different trends expected [34][35][36] - In the agriculture and animal husbandry sector, factors such as supply, demand, and seasonality affect the prices of pigs, eggs, corn, soybean meal, and oils and fats, and corresponding trading strategies are provided [38][40][42][44][46][52] Summary by Directory Macro - Finance - **Stock Indices**: The Sino - US talks achieved positive results, and the 15th Five - Year Plan has a positive stance. Stock indices may fluctuate with a bullish bias. It is recommended to buy on dips in the long term [5] - **Government Bonds**: Affected by multiple factors such as Sino - US talks, policy announcements, and market sentiment, government bonds are expected to fluctuate [5][6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The market has a strong bullish sentiment, and prices are on an upward trend. The short - term supply shortage supports the price [7] - **Rebar**: The price is at a relatively low valuation, and the demand has rebounded while the inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to buy on dips for the RB2601 contract [7] - **Glass**: The fundamental situation is deteriorating, and it is recommended to sell call options for the 01 contract [8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The supply shortage and positive policy expectations support the price, but the high price suppresses demand. It is recommended to hold small long positions at low prices without chasing highs [9][10] - **Aluminum**: The production capacity and inventory situation are complex, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions when favorable factors are realized [11] - **Nickel**: The new RKAB policy brings uncertainty, and the long - term supply is expected to be in surplus. It is recommended to wait and watch or short on rallies [14] - **Tin**: The supply is expected to improve, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading [15][16] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by factors such as US economic data and interest rate cut expectations, they are expected to fluctuate in the short term and have support in the medium term. It is recommended to conduct range trading [16][18] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export sustainability is uncertain. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4600 - 4800 for the 01 contract [19][20] - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by factors such as alumina production and inventory, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the 01 contract paying attention to the pressure at 2400 [21][22] - **Styrene**: The cost and supply - demand situation lead to an expected range - bound movement between 6300 - 6700 [23][24] - **Rubber**: The high raw material price suppresses demand, and it is expected to fluctuate around 15000 [24][25] - **Urea**: The supply decreases slightly, the demand increases, and the inventory situation is complex. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1600 - 1700 [25][26] - **Methanol**: The supply is tight in some areas, the downstream demand is weak, and the port inventory is under pressure. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2230 - 2330 [27][28] - **Polyolefins**: The supply has an increasing expectation, the demand improvement is slow, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. The PE and PP contracts should pay attention to the support at 7000 and 6600 respectively [28][29] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in surplus, and it is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy for the 01 contract [30][32] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The supply - demand situation improves, and it is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [34] - **PTA**: The oil price and supply - demand situation lead to a low - level range - bound movement between 4400 - 4700 [34][35] - **Apples**: The quality decline and cost increase support the price, and it is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [35] - **Jujubes**: The price is stable, and it is recommended to pay attention to the price change after the new season's centralized listing [36][37] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The supply is loose in the medium term, and it is recommended to adopt a bearish strategy for the 01, 03, and 05 contracts, and be cautious about bottom - fishing for the 07 and 09 contracts [38][39][40] - **Eggs**: The short - term demand is weak, and the long - term supply pressure is still large. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 12 contract and wait and watch for the 01 contract [40][41] - **Corn**: The new crop's listing pressure is large, and it is recommended to short on rallies for the 01 contract and pay attention to the 3 - 5 positive spread [42][44] - **Soybean Meal**: The cost increase drives the price up, and it is recommended to hold long positions for the M2601 contract and pay attention to the basis trading [44][45][46] - **Oils and Fats**: The short - term trend is under pressure, but there is support below. It is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of the 01 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [46][47][52]

Core Viewpoint - The overall macroeconomic environment, liquidity conditions, and market risk appetite are expected to improve, with a focus on growth sectors following the completion of Q3 earnings reports and the anticipated U.S.-China negotiations in early November [1][3]. Macroeconomic Overview - Economic recovery is showing signs of divergence, with Q4 incremental policies likely to be weak. Q3 GDP growth has slowed, continuing a downward trend. The manufacturing PMI remains in contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI shows overall deceleration. Structural pressures persist during the recovery phase [2]. - PPI has rebounded significantly year-on-year, indicating a stabilization trend, but weak demand continues to drag on CPI and PPI forecasts, making it unlikely for PPI to turn positive this year. M2 growth has reached a new high for the year, reflecting slight activation of funding vitality, although retail sales growth continues to decline [2]. Policy Insights - The "anti-involution" trend is showing signs of cooling, with the Fourth Plenary Session setting the tone for the 14th Five-Year Plan, although market reactions have been muted. There is potential for unexpected policy developments in the future [2]. - The central bank's supportive stance is evident through measures such as the resumption of 14-day reverse repos and MLF operations, leading to an overall improvement in liquidity conditions [2]. Investment Strategy - With the macro environment improving, the market is expected to focus on growth sectors. Key investment themes include: 1. Sectors with strong Q3 performance and continued growth potential, particularly in technology (storage, domestic computing power, consumer electronics, overseas AI applications), innovative pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy [3]. 2. Cyclical sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies, with improved industrial profits in steel, chemicals, and new energy [3]. 3. If market risk appetite increases significantly, attention should be given to solid-state batteries, robotics, and AI applications [3]. 4. Long-term focus on emerging sectors highlighted in the 14th Five-Year Plan, including artificial intelligence, aerospace development, semiconductor self-sufficiency, and quantum economy [3]. Sector Recommendations - Continued recommendations for growth sectors include: - Technology: Positive trends in domestic and overseas computing power, with multiple sub-sectors exceeding performance expectations [3]. - Consumer: Innovative pharmaceuticals and CXO sectors expected to show upward trends in Q3 reports [3]. - High-end manufacturing: Wind power and energy storage maintaining high demand, with potential turning points in battery and photovoltaic sectors [3]. - Cyclical: Steel and chemical sectors expected to see gradual profit improvements, with a focus on copper and aluminum benefiting from U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts [3].

Core Insights - A-share companies have shown significant recovery in performance for the first three quarters of 2025, with 53.61% of listed companies reporting a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders [1][2]. Financial Performance - Among the 5,385 listed companies, 2,325 reported a net profit increase of over 10%, 1,626 over 30%, and 677 over 100% year-on-year [2]. - Notable companies such as Xinda Co. reported a staggering 3,064.56% increase in net profit, with revenue of approximately 2.008 billion yuan, a 6.11% increase [2]. - A total of 2,210 companies had net profits exceeding 100 million yuan, with 832 exceeding 500 million yuan, and 483 exceeding 1 billion yuan [2]. Industry Performance - Key industries showing significant net profit growth include steel, non-ferrous metals, media, electronics, computers, building materials, power equipment, and home appliances [3]. Dividend Announcements - A total of 214 listed companies announced cash dividends alongside their quarterly reports [4]. Quarterly Performance Trends - Companies like Tuojing Technology reported a 124.15% increase in Q3 revenue, reaching approximately 2.266 billion yuan, and a 225.07% increase in net profit [5]. - Baiwei Storage reported a 30.84% increase in revenue for the first three quarters, but a significant decline in net profit by 86.67% [5]. Market Reactions - Companies with substantial Q3 performance improvements, such as Huawu Co., experienced stock price increases post-announcement, with a reported rise of over 5% [6]. Institutional Interest - Many companies received attention from institutional investors following their quarterly reports, focusing on growth drivers, capacity, pricing strategies, and outlook for 2026 [7]. - For instance, Zhaoyi Innovation engaged with 376 institutions, highlighting strong performance due to seasonal demand and improved storage cycles [7]. Future Outlook - Zhaoyi Innovation aims to maintain a market share-focused strategy while embracing AI opportunities, expecting stable revenue growth despite rising product costs [8]. - Haidar emphasized sufficient capacity to meet current orders and ongoing upgrades to enhance production efficiency [8]. - Hongya CNC is strategically adjusting prices to target key projects and core clients, maintaining competitive strength amid market consolidation [9].

Core Viewpoint - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session has approved the "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development," outlining a grand blueprint for China's development over the next five years, emphasizing ecological civilization and green transformation as key priorities [1][2]. Group 1: Achievements in Ecological Civilization and Green Development - During the "14th Five-Year" period, significant progress has been made in ecological civilization and green development, with PM2.5 concentrations in cities expected to drop to 29.3 micrograms per cubic meter by 2024, a 16.3% decrease from 2020 [2]. - The proportion of good water quality in surface water has surpassed 90%, with major rivers like the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers maintaining Class II water quality for several consecutive years [2]. - The area of ecological protection and restoration has exceeded 120 million acres, with forest coverage steadily increasing to over 25%, contributing to approximately 25% of the world's new greening area [2]. - The share of non-fossil energy consumption is projected to rise from 15.9% in 2020 to 19.8% by 2024, with renewable energy generation capacity surpassing coal power for the first time [2]. Group 2: Future Directions for Green Development - The 20th Central Committee emphasizes the need to enhance green development momentum, advocating for a balance between high-quality development and environmental protection, and promoting the integration of new technologies with green industries [4]. - Pollution prevention and ecological system optimization are highlighted as key tasks, focusing on precise and scientific approaches to tackle environmental challenges [4]. - The establishment of a new energy system is deemed crucial, with a focus on developing renewable and clean energy while ensuring energy security [4]. - Achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals is prioritized, with a call for innovation in green technology and the establishment of a comprehensive carbon emission control system [4]. - The promotion of a green lifestyle is essential for building a beautiful China, encouraging societal participation in sustainable practices and green consumption [4].

A股三季报披露收官。Wind数据显示，截至10月30日21时，A股共有5385家上市公司对外披露2025年三 季报，前三季度，2887家上市公司实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润同比增长，占比约为53.61%。钢 铁、有色、传媒、电子、计算机、建筑材料等行业前三季度业绩回暖明显，一些公司第三季度业绩按下 了"加速键"。 ● 本报记者 董添 近700家企业前三季净利同比增逾100% 从净利润增幅角度看，上述5385家上市公司中，有2325家上市公司2025年前三季度归属于上市公司股东 的净利润同比增幅超过10%，1626家同比增幅超过30%，677家同比增幅超过100%。 方正电机、晶瑞电材、天保基建、华宏科技、博杰股份、海象新材、国投中鲁、先达股份等前三季度归 属于上市公司股东的净利润同比增幅超过3000%。 其中，先达股份10月30日晚间披露的2025年三季报显示，今年前三季度，公司共实现营业收入约20.08 亿元，同比增长6.11%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润约1.96亿元，同比增长3064.56%。 从净利润数值角度看，上述5385家上市公司中，2210家上市公司归属于上市公司股东的净利润超过1亿 元， ...