Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International expresses optimism about GCL-Poly Energy (03800) due to its significant profitability in granular silicon, low energy consumption aligning with policy directions, and the industry's "anti-involution" leading to a surge in polysilicon prices, with a target price set at HKD 1.54 [1] Industry Summary - The report maintains a leading rating for the domestic new energy and public utility sector, predicting a historical high in total installed capacity for the year despite a moderate peak season for wind and solar installations in the first half of 2025 driven by policy incentives [1] - For 2026, the expectation is that domestic photovoltaic installations will continue to remain at a high level of 280 GW, while wind power installations are projected to grow by approximately 11% year-on-year to reach 110 GW, supported by robust bidding volumes in the past [1] - The preferred order of sub-industries covered by the report is: polysilicon > inverters/storage > operators > photovoltaic glass > battery cells [1]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The report focuses on industrial silicon and polysilicon, suggesting a low - buying strategy for polysilicon as an anti - involution core target, and also calls attention to the fermentation of the Xinjiang environmental protection incident regarding industrial silicon [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Catalog Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For industrial silicon, Si2601's closing price was 8,805 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 105 yuan compared to T - 1. Its trading volume was 170,669 lots, and the open interest was 196,943 lots. For polysilicon, PS2601's closing price was 55,510 yuan/ton, down 1,405 yuan from T - 1, with a trading volume of 159,380 lots and an open interest of 97,991 lots [2] - **Basis**: Industrial silicon's spot premium (against East China Si5530) was +645 yuan/ton, while polysilicon's spot premium (against N - type re - investment) was - 3510 yuan/ton [2] - **Prices**: Xinjiang 99 silicon was priced at 8900 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 at 10000 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - investment material at 52300 yuan/ton [2] - **Profits**: Silicon factory profits for Xinjiang new - standard 553 were - 2464.5 yuan/ton, and for Yunnan new - standard 553 were - 3576 yuan/ton. Polysilicon enterprise profits were 7.7 yuan/kg [2] - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 55.8 million tons, enterprise inventory was 18.3 million tons, and industry inventory was 74.1 million tons. Polysilicon's factory inventory was 29.1 million tons [2] - **Raw Material Costs**: Silicon ore in Xinjiang was 320 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 270 yuan/ton. Other raw materials like washed coking coal, petroleum coke, electrodes also had corresponding prices [2] - **Prices in Related Industries**: In the polysilicon (photovoltaic) industry, silicon wafers (N - type - 210mm) were 1.48 yuan/piece, battery cells (TOPCon - 210mm) were 0.283 yuan/watt, etc. In the organic silicon industry, DMC was 13600 yuan/ton, and in the aluminum alloy industry, ADC12 was 21700 yuan/ton [2] - **Profits in Related Industries**: DMC enterprise profits were 1729 yuan/ton, and regenerative aluminum enterprise profits were - 390 yuan/ton [2] Macro and Industry News - On December 3rd, the Development and Reform Commission of Qinhuangdao, Hebei, released a public notice on the application for the third - batch project construction of wind and photovoltaic power generation in 2025. There were 7 projects in total, with a total scale of 782,500 kilowatts, including 4 wind power projects with a scale of 282,500 kilowatts and 3 photovoltaic projects with a scale of 500,000 kilowatts. Project owners included PetroChina, PowerChina, and other companies [2][4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon was 0, and that of polysilicon was also 0, indicating a neutral view [4]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: December 08, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook - Market performance: The price of the main polysilicon contract dropped significantly. The closing price of the PS2601 contract was 55,510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.96%. The trading volume was 159,380 lots, and the open interest was 97,991 lots, with a net decrease of 18,662 lots [4] - Spot price: The transaction price range of n-type polysilicon re-feeding materials was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous period [4] - Future outlook: The fundamentals have not improved. The production in December is expected to remain flat compared to the previous month. Profits are concentrated in the silicon material segment, but downstream segments are continuously lowering prices due to terminal pressure. Downstream enterprises are reducing production and controlling output. Spot prices remain stable, meeting the policy requirements for stability. The adjustment of the supply - demand relationship is difficult to improve through the industry's own driving force. Under the requirements of the exchange, the 01 contract continues to reduce positions, the short squeeze narrative cools down, and the futures price may run weakly and return to fluctuate around the spot price [4] Group 3: Market News - On December 05, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 1,560 lots, an increase of 10 lots from the previous trading day [5] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association stated that it is working with industry enterprises, and relevant work is progressing steadily. Rumors on the Internet are false information. The association firmly safeguards national and industry interests and will fight against malicious short - selling of the photovoltaic industry [5] - The Silicon Industry Branch of the association estimated that the production in November was about 114,900 tons, a 14% decrease from 137,000 tons in October, and the production in December is expected to rebound to about 120,000 tons [5]

| 观点与策略 | | --- | 2025年12月08日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 镍：结构性过剩转变，博弈矛盾并未改变 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：供需延续双弱运行，成本支撑逻辑增强 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：偏弱震荡，关注尼日利亚停矿事件发酵 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注新疆环保事件发酵 | 6 | | 多晶硅：反内卷核心标的，低买思路为主 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 117,790 | 30 | 710 | 3,740 | -2,240 | -3,060 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 12,500 | 75 | 135 | 210 | -35 | -355 | | 货 | | 沪镍主力（成交量） | 107,217 | 3,895 | 21, ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [4] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of industrial silicon are less optimistic than previously expected, and it may trade between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after rebounds [3][16]. - The spot price of polysilicon is expected to remain stable. If the PS2601 contract gaps down significantly on Monday, long - buying opportunities at low levels should be considered, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage opportunity for the PS2605 contract [3][16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2601 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 325 yuan/ton week - on - week to 8,805 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,450 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 remained flat at 8,900 yuan/ton [9]. - The PS2601 contract of polysilicon decreased by 915 yuan/ton to 55,510 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of N - type re - feeding material of polysilicon remained flat at 53,200 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Xinjiang Large Factories Increase Production, and New Delivery Brands for Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - This week, the main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated downward. Xinjiang added 5 units, Yunnan reduced 2 units, Sichuan decreased 14 units, and Inner Mongolia added 1 unit. Shihezi launched a level II (orange) emergency response for heavy pollution weather [1][4][11]. - The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.8 million tons, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.29 million tons week - on - week. From December to the first quarter of next year, industrial silicon will accumulate 10,000 - 20,000 tons of inventory per month [11]. Organic Silicon - This week, the price of organic silicon continued to rise. Some enterprises reduced production, and some resumed production. The overall operating rate was 73.31%, the weekly output was 48,500 tons, a decrease of 2.81% week - on - week, and the inventory was 45,600 tons, an increase of 2.01% week - on - week. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [11][12]. Polysilicon - This week, the main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated. The price of N - type dense re - feeding material of leading manufacturers remained above 51 - 53 yuan/kg, and the granular material remained at 50 - 51 yuan/kg. The production schedule in December is expected to be 112,000 tons. The inventory is expected to remain stable [2][12]. Silicon Wafers - This week, the price of silicon wafers continued to fall, and the average price of each size has broken through the cash cost. Production is expected to be 45GW in December, and the inventory is expected to oscillate at a low level [13]. Battery Cells - This week, the price of battery cells remained stable. Production is expected to be 47.8GW in December. The price is expected to remain stable [13]. Components - This week, the price of components remained basically stable. Production is expected to be significantly lower in December, with only 37GW for domestic production. The price is expected to decline [14]. New Delivery Brands for Polysilicon - On December 5th, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange added "Jingnuo" and "Orient Hope" as registered brands for polysilicon futures. Orient Hope's monthly production of benchmark delivery products is about 3,000 tons, and Jingnuo's is about 1,000 tons [2][15]. 3.3 Investment Recommendations Industrial Silicon - The fundamentals are less optimistic. It may trade between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities after rebounds [3][16]. Polysilicon - The spot price is expected to remain stable. If the PS2601 contract gaps down significantly on Monday, consider long - buying opportunities at low levels. Pay attention to the 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage opportunity for the PS2605 contract [3][16]. 3.4 Hot News - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange added "Jingnuo" and "Orient Hope" as registered brands for polysilicon futures [15][17]. - The trading margin standard and trading limit of the PS2601 contract of polysilicon futures were adjusted [17]. - The power industry released the new energy grid - connected consumption situation in October 2025, with a photovoltaic utilization rate of 94.8% and a wind power utilization rate of 96.4% [18]. 3.5 Industry Chain High - frequency Data Tracking - The report provides high - frequency data charts for industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, including prices, production, and inventory [8].

0:00 12月5日，广期所公告，根据《广州期货交易所交割管理办法》等有关规定，经研究决定：新增新疆晶 诺新能源产业发展有限公司"晶诺"牌、新疆东方希望新能源有限公司"东方希望"牌为多晶硅期货注册品 牌。新增的注册品牌自本公告发布之日起启用。 ...

人民财讯12月5日电，广期所公告，根据《广州期货交易所交割管理办法》等有关规定，经研究决定： 新增新疆晶诺新能源产业发展有限公司"晶诺"牌、新疆东方希望新能源有限公司"东方希望"牌为多晶硅 期货注册品牌，新增的注册品牌自本公告发布之日起启用。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has announced the addition of two new registered brands for polysilicon futures: "Jingnuo" from Xinjiang Jingnuo New Energy Industry Development Co., Ltd. and "Dongfang Xiwang" from Xinjiang Dongfang Xiwang New Energy Co., Ltd. These brands will be effective immediately upon the announcement [3][7][8]. Summary by Category Brand Registration - Two new brands have been registered for polysilicon futures: "Jingnuo" and "Dongfang Xiwang" [3][7]. - The registration is in accordance with the regulations set forth in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange Delivery Management Measures [3]. Implementation - The newly registered brands will be activated from the date of the announcement [8]. - The specific details regarding the registered brands and their respective production facilities are provided in an attached directory [10].

Core Viewpoint - The production of polysilicon in China is significantly below expectations for November and December due to production cuts and delays by leading companies, impacting supply dynamics in the market [2][4][9]. Group 1: Production Data - In November, the final production of polysilicon was reported at 114,600 tons, a decrease of 14.48% compared to October [2][9]. - The expected production for December is projected to be 113,500 tons, indicating a continued decline in output [2][9]. - Market expectations for November's polysilicon production were around 120,000 tons, highlighting a significant shortfall [2][9]. Group 2: Reasons for Production Cuts - The primary reason for the lower-than-expected production is the reduction in output by several leading companies, particularly in Inner Mongolia, where two companies accounted for approximately 300,000 tons of capacity shortfall [4][11]. - One company delayed its production ramp-up, while another proactively reduced its load, reflecting industry self-discipline [4][11]. - Additional factors include slow ramp-up of production in regions like Ningxia and reductions by smaller manufacturers due to market conditions and inventory pressures [4][11]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite the production cuts, the supply-demand relationship for polysilicon has not reversed, as downstream demand has also led to significant reductions in silicon wafer production [4][11]. - In November, the final production of silicon wafers was 54.37 GW, a decrease of 9.38% month-on-month, with December's expected production at 45.7 GW, reflecting a 15.95% decline [4][11]. Group 4: Price Outlook - The price outlook for polysilicon remains uncertain, with significant upward pressure due to inventory levels and downstream sentiment [6][13]. - However, leading polysilicon producers have shown a clear intent to stabilize the market, which is currently the main factor supporting price stability [6][13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Fuel Oil [1] - Volatile: Equity Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum Oxide, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Industrial Silicon, Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Silicomanganese, Ferrosilicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Black Metal, Soda Ash, Glass, Jiao Coal, Palm Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Soybean, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Crude Oil, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG [1] Core Viewpoints - The market divergence is expected to gradually be digested during the index's volatile adjustment, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of new mainlines. The market adjustment provides an opportunity to lay out for the index's further upward movement next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - For various commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and cost supports, showing different trends of rise, fall, or volatility [1]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial - Equity Index: Market divergence will be digested during adjustment, with potential for further upward movement. Central Huijin's support limits downside risk. Market adjustment provides a layout opportunity, and traders can build long positions during the adjustment and use the stock - index futures' discount structure to increase the probability of long - term investment success [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned by the central bank, suppressing the upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: There is a risk of price decline after the digestion of short - term positive sentiment [1]. - Aluminum Oxide: Domestic production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and prices are under downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the price changes at the mine end [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - positive factors and with oversupply, there is a risk of price decline. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - Nickel: Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has risen, and the macro sentiment has improved. Indonesia's restrictions on nickel - related smelting projects have limited impact. Short - term nickel prices may fluctuate with the macro situation. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short - term range, and the medium - to - long - term supply of nickel will remain in surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The macro sentiment has improved, and raw materials have stopped falling. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate and rebound in the short term. Pay attention to the actual production situation of steel mills [1]. - Tin: After the digestion of macro - positive sentiment, due to the tense situation in Congo and the short - term supply not being restored, tin prices have strengthened. However, beware of the risk of short - term over - rise and fall. The medium - to - long - term outlook is bullish [1]. - Precious Metals: Gold may fluctuate within a range. Silver's short - term price will continue to fluctuate sharply. Platinum is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For palladium, the short - term strategy is to short at high levels, and the medium - term [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can continue to be held [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production is increasing while Southwest production is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December are decreasing [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term. Terminal installations are increasing marginally in the fourth quarter. Large manufacturers are reluctant to sell and are strong in price support [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy - storage demand is strong. The supply side is resuming production and increasing output [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The macro - driving force is increasing in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for basis positive - arbitrage positions to enter. Do not chase high in single - side trading [1]. - Iron Ore: Direct demand is okay, with cost support, but supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound space is limited [1]. - Manganese Ore and Silicomanganese: The short - term production profit is poor, with cost support, but supply is high, and the price rebound is limited [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and price fluctuations are strong [1]. - Soda Ash: Follows glass, but with average supply and demand, there is great resistance to price increase [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment may start around mid - December. For now, use a short - term strategy for single - side trading and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is large. The domestic arrival in December is expected to be large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, weather, and demand in the peak season [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling due to global surplus and increased domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Soybean: China's purchases support the US market. Brazilian weather lacks obvious speculation themes, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Pulp: There are cancellations of old warehouse receipts and registrations of new ones. The recovery of demand remains to be verified, and the short - term price will fluctuate [1]. - Log: The fundamental situation has weakened but has been priced in the market. The risk - reward ratio of short - selling after a sharp decline is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is stabilizing, with demand support, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is postponed, and the US has increased sanctions on Russia [1]. - Fuel Oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC + policies, the Russia - Ukraine situation, and US sanctions [1]. - Asphalt: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The demand during the 14th Five - Year Plan may be falsified, and supply is sufficient. The profit is high [1]. - BR Rubber: The price support of butadiene is limited. Refinery overhauls may bring a positive expectation. High inventory restricts price increase, but the synthetic valuation is low [1]. - PTA: OPEC's production increase has slowed down, and there are positive factors such as domestic PTA export improvement [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Inventory is increasing, prices are falling, and cost support is weakening [1]. - Short Fiber: The price follows cost closely, and the basis has strengthened [1]. - Styrene: The cost support is weakening due to factors such as weak Asian benzene prices and reduced US gasoline demand [1]. - Urea: There is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from cost and anti - dumping [1]. - Propylene: Supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, but cost support is strong [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening [1]. - Caustic Soda: There are factors such as delivery from Guangxi alumina plants, high - load operation, and potential squeezing risks [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas market returns to a loose fundamental situation. The CP/FEI has rebounded. The price will fluctuate within a range after a decline [1].