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能源日报-20250708
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 11:41
| | | | | | 原油 ★☆★ 燃料油 女女女 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ 沥青 女女女 液化石油气 ★☆☆ 能源日报 2025年07月08日 高明宇 首席分析师 F0302201 Z0012038 季祖智 中级分析师 F3063857 Z0016599 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 【原油】昨日国际油价低开高走,SC08合约日内涨1.88%。我们认为OPEC+的快速增产政策对三季度的油价冲击 暂时有限,一方面考虑到部分产油国的实际产量已远高于目标产量且同步存在减产补偿计划的约束,OPEG+实际 月度增产量均小于产量目标的上调幅度;另一方面,三季度为汽油、航煤需求的季节性旺季,本轮增产在夏季 尚可得到需求端较好的承接。而度过三季度旺季之后,若美国的对等关税政策依然延续,OPEC+产量的国归将对 基本面产生更直接的利空压力,在中东地缘局势保持可控的情景下油价重心面临进一步下移。豁免期延续至8月 1日的美国对等关税最终博弈结果或不高于4月初水平,原油短期仍持三季度底部抬升、震荡偏强的判断。 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【星级说明】红色 ...
小摩前瞻壳牌(SHEL.US)Q2“成绩单”:交易逆风拖累业绩 EPS或现两位数下滑
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-07-08 10:08
Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts a significant decline in Shell's EPS due to weak trading performance, despite relatively strong cash flow [1][2][3] Group 1: Earnings and Cash Flow - The expected net profit for Shell in Q2 is $4.4 billion, with operating cash flow before working capital/derivatives at $10.4 billion [2] - The decline in EPS is anticipated to be in double digits, primarily driven by weak downstream business performance [2][5] - Cash flow is expected to outperform EPS, with a midpoint of combined working capital/derivatives growth at $2.5 billion [2] Group 2: Trading and Operational Performance - Trading performance in both integrated gas and downstream sectors has significantly weakened compared to Q1, where integrated gas was flat and downstream oil trading saw a notable increase [4] - The chemical and product business is expected to see a significant decline, with the Monaca plant's unplanned maintenance exacerbating trading weakness [4] - Upstream and integrated gas production remains robust, with upstream production guidance adjusted upwards by approximately 50,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day [4] Group 3: Industry Impact and Comparisons - The trading weakness is not isolated to Shell but reflects broader industry trends affecting major companies like BP [5][6] - The report indicates that the overall market consensus is likely to adjust downwards significantly due to the poor performance in integrated gas/liquid trading and chemical/product sectors [5] - The report highlights TotalEnergies as potentially having the most resilient cash flow among major players in Q2 [6]
中证香港300上游指数报2572.51点,前十大权重包含招金矿业等
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-07-08 08:31
Group 1 - The core index, the China Securities Hong Kong 300 Upstream Index (H300 Upstream), reported a value of 2572.51 points, with a 2.22% increase over the past month, a 25.04% increase over the past three months, and a 9.20% increase year-to-date [1] - The index reflects the overall performance of theme securities listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, selected based on the China Securities industry classification [1] - The top ten holdings of the H300 Upstream Index include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (28.81%), PetroChina Company Limited (12.85%), Zijin Mining Group (10.9%), China Shenhua Energy Company (9.29%), Sinopec Limited (8.93%), China Hongqiao Group (4.48%), China Coal Energy Company (3.4%), Zhaojin Mining Industry Company (3.06%), Luoyang Molybdenum Company (2.89%), and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (2.35%) [1] Group 2 - The industry composition of the H300 Upstream Index shows that oil and gas account for 50.95%, precious metals for 16.02%, coal for 15.56%, industrial metals for 14.84%, oil and gas extraction and field services for 1.07%, rare metals for 0.89%, and other non-ferrous metals and alloys for 0.67% [2] - The index samples are adjusted semi-annually, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December each year, with provisions for temporary adjustments in special circumstances [2]
原油、燃料油日报:OPEC+提速增产,宽松基本面持续施压油价-20250707
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 11:56
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The crude oil market is facing a game between accelerating supply return and weak demand recovery. OPEC+ accelerating production increase may drive the global crude oil market from destocking to a slight restocking phase, but the low OECD commercial inventory still supports the price. In the third quarter, the oil price may show a volatile downward pattern, and the fluctuation center is restricted by the trade - off between OPEC+'s actual production increase execution rate and the northern hemisphere's summer refinery operating rate [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - On July 4 - 5, the SC crude oil main contract price fell 1.03% to 503.5 yuan/barrel, while WTI and Brent prices remained stable at $67.18 and $68.85 per barrel respectively. The cross - regional spreads of SC with Brent and WTI narrowed, and the near - far month spread (SC continuous - continuous 3) also narrowed, indicating a marginal relief of the market's expectation of tight future supply [2]. - On the supply side, OPEC+ agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August, accelerating production increase. Since April, the released production will reach 1.918 million barrels per day, significantly faster than the original plan. Saudi Arabia's official price premium strategies for August are differentiated, suggesting its intention to maintain regional supply balance through structural pricing [3]. - On the demand side, there are signs of marginal repair. The recovery of fuel supply at the UK's Lindsey refinery and India's plan to expand refinery capacity have improved short - term refinery demand, but the significant reduction in Brent crude oil speculative net long positions reflects doubts about the continuous upward space of oil prices [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: On July 4, 2025, SC futures price decreased by 0.55%, WTI decreased by 1.01%, and Brent decreased by 0.49%. Among spot prices, Oman, Victory, Dubai, ESPO, and Duri increased, while others had different degrees of decline. Spreads such as SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI changed, and the SC continuous - continuous 3 spread decreased by 12.36%. The US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 0.93%, and the US refinery weekly operating rate increased by 0.21% [6]. - **Fuel Oil**: On July 4, 2025, FU futures price decreased by 0.70%, LU decreased by 0.06%, and NYMEX fuel oil increased by 1.75%. Among spot prices, some increased and some decreased. The Singapore high - low sulfur spread decreased by 1.86%, and the Chinese high - low sulfur spread increased by 2.99%. The Singapore fuel oil inventory increased by 3.91% [7]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: OPEC+ will increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, and some members' over - production has caused disputes. Saudi Aramco's move to sell power plant assets may indicate financial pressure [3][8]. - **Demand**: The UK's Lindsey refinery resumed fuel supply, and India plans to expand refinery capacity. Dubai Airlines resumed flights to Tehran, slightly alleviating geopolitical premiums [4][10]. - **Inventory**: The fuel oil futures warehouse receipt decreased by 10,000 tons, while the medium - sulfur crude oil and low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged [11]. - **Market Information**: Saudi Arabia adjusted the official selling prices of Arab light crude oil for different regions in August. The net long positions of gasoline speculators increased, while those of Brent crude oil decreased [11]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, US crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, and various inventory and operating rate data, which help to comprehensively understand the supply and demand situation of the oil market [13][15][17].
能源日报-20250707
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 11:36
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Asphalt: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆, representing a bias towards a short - trend, with a driving force for a downward trend, but limited operability on the market [1] Core Views - The rapid production increase by OPEC+ has limited impact on oil prices in Q3. After the Q3 peak season, if the US equivalent tariff policy continues, oil prices may decline. Other energy products have their own supply - demand characteristics and short - term trends [2][3][4] Summary by Category Crude Oil - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. The actual monthly production increase of OPEC+ is less than the target increase. In Q3, the increase can be well absorbed by demand. After Q3, if the US tariff policy continues, oil prices may decline. Short - term view is that the bottom of oil prices will rise in Q3 [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Crude oil opening weak drove fuel - related futures down. High - sulfur fuel oil demand is low, and its price and cracking spread are weakening. Low - sulfur fuel oil has limited short - term supply pressure due to the coking profit and diesel cracking strength, but demand lacks a clear driver, with short - term cracking spread expected to be slightly stronger [2] Asphalt - With the decline of oil prices, asphalt prices also dropped. The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries decreased slightly, and the cumulative year - on - year increase dropped from 8% to 7%. Demand recovery is delayed, refinery inventory increased by 15,000 tons, and social inventory remained flat. The short - term trend is to fluctuate [3] LPG - The international market supply is loose, and overseas prices may be under pressure. Last week's new maintenance led to a decline in chemical demand, but the decline in import costs promoted the repair of PDH profit margins. In summer, supply pressure increases, and the market trend is weak [4]
2025年期货市场展望:供需格局延续宽松,关税扰动贸易流向
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-06 12:50
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - In H1 2025, the LPG futures market was in a range - bound state with weak endogenous drivers, but price volatility increased significantly due to macro and geopolitical events [5][26]. - Without major geopolitical and macro disturbances, the LPG supply - demand pattern is expected to remain loose in H2 2025. Supply from the Middle East and the US will further increase. Although China's chemical demand base will expand with new device launches, weak downstream product demand and low device profits restrict raw material demand release and cap the upside of LPG prices [1][5][102]. - Based on the expectation of a medium - term decline in crude oil prices and a global LPG oversupply, there is a certain downward driver for LPG prices in H2 2025. Considering the current price level, the short - term downside space may be limited, and opportunities to short on rallies can be monitored [5][102]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil Reality Fundamentals Are Fair but Expectations Are Weak, and the Cost Center May Further Decline in Q4 - In H1 2025, international oil prices fluctuated repeatedly due to increased geopolitical and macro disturbances. Brent once exceeded $80/barrel at the beginning of the year but then fell back. Trump's policies had a more prominent negative impact on the oil market [12]. - In April, Trump's tariff policy and OPEC's production increase decision led to an accelerated oil price decline, with Brent falling below $60/barrel. After the tariff conflict improved marginally, oil prices rebounded [13]. - In June, the Israel - Iran conflict increased the geopolitical premium of crude oil, and Brent approached $80/barrel. After the cease - fire, oil prices quickly fell back [14]. - Currently, the crude oil market has returned to its fundamental logic. The short - term fundamentals are fair, but there may be oversupply in Q4, and the cost support for downstream energy - chemical products may weaken [15]. H1 2025 LPG Market Operated Weakly Overall, and Tariffs and Geopolitical Conflicts Caused Disturbances - In Q1 2025, the LPG market was in a shock state with no prominent contradictions. Minor disturbances had limited impact, and the spot market was not tight due to weak downstream demand in the Asia - Pacific [26]. - In Q2 2025, the impact of macro and geopolitical factors increased significantly. The US - imposed tariffs led to a change in the LPG trade pattern, an increase in PDH device losses, and complex price transmission. After the tariff reduction, the market remained cautious. In June, the Israel - Iran conflict briefly boosted the LPG market, but after the cease - fire, it returned to a loose supply - demand pattern [27][28]. H2 2025 LPG Supply - Demand Pattern May Remain Loose, and US Export Space Will Further Expand OPEC Eases Production Cuts, and Middle East LPG Supply Has Growth Potential - OPEC's production policy has shifted, with production quotas increasing. Although actual production increases may be lower than quotas, LPG supply is expected to rise. Middle East LPG shipments have gradually increased, and CP prices have declined [42][44]. - Iran's LPG shipments have remained stable this year, and after the temporary delay in June due to the Israel - Iran conflict, they are expected to resume in July [44]. US LPG Supply Keeps Growing, and Export Space Will Further Expand after Terminal Expansion - US NGL and LPG production have been rising. With limited domestic consumption growth, the US needs to export more. After the tariff adjustment, the US - China LPG trade window has reopened but not fully recovered [55]. - The expansion of US export terminals will increase export capacity by about 950,000 tons/month in July, further opening up export space. The future of US - China trade depends on tariff negotiations [60]. Russian Gas Supply Shows an Obvious Growth Trend and Has Become a New LPG Raw Material Source for China - China's imports of Russian LPG have been increasing. From January to May this year, imports reached 316,000 tons, a 95% year - on - year increase. Russian LPG has a price advantage and stable supply, which has suppressed the spot price in North China [79]. China's PDH New Capacity Launch Cycle Continues, but Profits Remain a Constraint on Demand Release - China's LPG demand has been growing, mainly driven by the launch of downstream chemical devices. About 5.31 million tons/year of propane dehydrogenation capacity is planned to be launched this year, but PDH industry profits have been low, restricting demand release and new device launch progress [83]. - The US tariff policy still poses risks to China's LPG raw material procurement. If tariffs rise again, PDH device profits will be under pressure, and industry demand may decline [85]. LPG Supply - Demand Pattern May Remain Loose, and Market Upside Resistance Remains Significant - Without major disturbances, the LPG supply - demand pattern is expected to remain loose in H2 2025. Supply from the Middle East and the US will increase, while weak downstream demand and low device profits will limit price increases [102].
燃料油半年报:结构性因素仍存,燃料油市场或面临再平衡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-06 08:04
Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. Core Views - Crude oil's current fundamentals are fair, but the outlook is weak, with the cost center likely to decline further in Q4 [11][15] - In H1 2025, the fuel oil market was significantly affected by geopolitical and macro - factors, with negative feedback on the high - sulfur end [11][26] - In H2 2025, the fuel oil market faces rebalancing, and structural factors still exist [11][51] - Refinery demand is under pressure; attention should be paid to demand improvement after economic viability returns [11][51] - Summer power generation demand is strong, and the substitution effect persists [11][74] - Bunker fuel demand still faces tariff risks, and the trend of consumption structure change continues [11][83] - High - sulfur fuel oil still has structural support, but OPEC's production increase has marginal negative impacts [11][102] - Low - sulfur fuel oil still has relatively abundant surplus capacity, and domestic production is expected to increase marginally [11][112] - High - sulfur fuel oil valuation still has room for correction, and the medium - term outlook for low - sulfur fuel oil remains weak [11][129] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil Market - In H1 2025, international oil prices fluctuated due to geopolitical and macro - factors. The initial price increase was followed by a decline, and then another sharp drop and rebound. The main influencing factors included US sanctions on Russia, Trump's policies, tariff conflicts, and the Israel - Iran conflict [15][16][17] - Currently, the crude oil market's fundamentals are fair, but in Q4, it is expected to enter a supply - surplus phase as OPEC's production increases and the peak demand season ends, leading to a potential weakening of cost support for downstream products [18] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Market - In H1 2025, high - sulfur fuel oil was affected by sanctions on Iran and Russia, refinery disruptions in Russia, and increased demand from power generation and countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia. However, high prices led to negative feedback, with reduced refinery demand and increased simple refinery production [27][28] - Refinery demand for high - sulfur fuel oil has declined this year due to high raw material costs and policy changes. If the cracking spread adjusts and profit margins improve, refinery procurement may increase, but China's import demand may not fully recover [51][54] - In Q3, power generation demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is supported by seasonality and natural gas substitution, but OPEC's production increase and early procurement in Egypt may limit the upside. Demand is expected to decline significantly in Q4 [74][75] - Bunker fuel demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is affected by tariff risks. Although there was a short - term increase in Q2, the long - term outlook remains uncertain [83] - High - sulfur fuel oil has structural support from refinery upgrades and tight heavy - oil supply. However, OPEC's production increase has marginal negative impacts [102][103] - In H2, high - sulfur fuel oil needs an increase in other demand sources for market rebalancing. Refinery demand recovery is expected, but it depends on cracking spread adjustment [7][129] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Market - In H1 2025, the low - sulfur fuel oil market was less volatile than the high - sulfur market. It was affected by tariff policies, regional demand changes, and refinery production adjustments. The market structure was relatively stable [29] - Low - sulfur fuel oil has abundant surplus capacity, and supply is mainly regulated by profit margins. Global and domestic production capacity can meet demand. Domestic production is expected to increase after the end of the refinery maintenance season [112][113] - Low - sulfur fuel oil's demand is at risk due to tariff policies and faces substitution by other fuels. The medium - term outlook is weak, but the downward drive is limited due to its low valuation [8][129] Strategies - High - sulfur: Oscillate weakly - Low - sulfur: Oscillate weakly - Cross - variety: Short the FU cracking spread (FU - Brent or FU - SC) on rallies - Cross - term: Short the FU2509 - FU2510 spread on rallies - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [9]
ST新潮: 关于2024年度拟不进行利润分配的公告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-07-04 16:33
Core Viewpoint - The company plans not to distribute profits for the fiscal year 2024, which includes no cash dividends, no bonus shares, and no capital reserve transfer to share capital [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Profit Distribution Plan - The profit distribution plan for 2024 is to not distribute cash dividends, not issue bonus shares, and not conduct capital reserve transfers to share capital [1][2] - This plan is subject to approval at the company's 2024 annual general meeting [1][2] Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, the company reported a consolidated net profit of approximately 2.04 billion yuan, with the net profit attributable to the parent company also being 2.04 billion yuan [1] - As of December 31, 2024, the parent company's undistributed profit balance was approximately -2.54 billion yuan, while the consolidated undistributed profit was approximately 7.33 billion yuan [2][3] Reasons for Negative Undistributed Profit - The negative undistributed profit in the parent company is attributed to the operational results of its U.S. subsidiary, which has accumulated profits over the years [3] - The company does not meet the conditions for distributing cash dividends or bonus shares due to the negative profit balance [3] Measures to Address Financial Issues - The company plans to amend its articles of association to allow the use of capital reserves to cover accumulated losses [3] - The company is actively seeking to resolve historical issues related to its banking relationships and aims to lift the freeze on its bank accounts [5] Decision-Making Process - The board of directors approved the profit distribution plan during a meeting held on July 4, 2025, and it will be submitted for shareholder approval [6] - The supervisory board also agreed with the decision to not distribute cash dividends for 2024 [6]
ST新潮:简称将变更为*ST新潮 7月8日起复牌
news flash· 2025-07-04 13:26
ST新潮:简称将变更为*ST新潮 7月8日起复牌 智通财经7月4日电,ST新潮(600777.SH)公告称,由于无法在法定期限内披露经审计的2024年年度报告 及2025年第一季度报告,公司股票自2025年5月6日起停牌。7月5日,公司披露了相关报告。因最近一个 会计年度的财务会计报告被出具无法表示意见的审计报告,公司股票将被实施退市风险警示,并自7月8 日起复牌。复牌后,公司A股简称将变更为*ST新潮,证券代码仍为600777,股票价格日涨跌幅限制仍 为5%。 ...
沙特阿美启动电厂资产出售,或筹资40亿美元
智通财经网· 2025-07-04 12:32
Group 1 - Saudi Aramco plans to sell four to five gas power plants as part of a strategy to unlock funding potential, which could generate several billion dollars [1] - The sale of these gas power plants, which supply power to refineries, could raise approximately $4 billion [1] - The Saudi government is urging Aramco to enhance profitability to increase national fiscal revenue [1] Group 2 - Aramco is the world's most profitable company and a major source of Saudi fiscal revenue, prompting ongoing asset sales, efficiency improvements, and cost-cutting measures [1] - The company is expected to cut nearly one-third of its dividend payments this year due to revenue impacts from falling oil prices [1] - Saudi Arabia's budget for 2024 is projected to have a deficit exceeding $30 billion, despite significant oil revenue contributions [5] Group 3 - Aramco owns or partially owns 18 power plants and related infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, providing energy for its gas and refinery operations [2] - New power plants are set to come online, including the Tanajib gas power plant project expected to start operations this year [2] - The asset sale coincides with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s push for economic diversification amid ongoing pressure from declining oil prices [5] Group 4 - Potential buyers for the assets may include local companies such as Saudi utility firms [1] - In May, Aramco issued $5 billion in bonds and signaled further financing plans [5] - The company is also exploring funding options through investor participation in infrastructure projects [5]