新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-03 "反内卷"拉动氧化铝价格 铝期货方面：2025-07-02日沪铝主力合约开于20610元/吨，收于20635元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨75元/ 吨，涨幅0.36%，最高价达20725元/吨，最低价达到20600元/吨。全天交易日成交146289手，较上一交易日增 加11655手，全天交易日持仓283729手，较上一交易日增加630手。 库存方面，截止2025-06-30，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存46.8万吨。截止2025-07-02，LME铝库存356625 吨，较前一交易日增加8000吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-07-02 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3075元/吨，山东价格录得3080元/吨，广西价格录得 3180元/吨，澳洲氧化铝FOB价格录得370美元/吨。 氧化铝期货方面：2025-07-02氧化铝主力合约开于2948元/吨，收于3071元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨130 元/吨，涨幅4.42%，最高价达到3075元/吨，最低价为2931元/吨。全天交易日成交386359手，较上一交易日增 加93491手，全天交易日持仓275495手，较上 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Alumina**: The alumina market is in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand. The price of bauxite provides some cost support. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows an upward - moving trend. It is recommended to conduct light - position trading and control risks [2]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum market has relatively stable supply. Short - term demand is affected by the off - season, but long - term demand is expected to improve. The option market sentiment is bullish. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows a potential downward trend. It is suggested to conduct light - position short - term long trading at low prices and control risks [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cast aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with continuous inventory accumulation. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows a weakening upward trend. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trading at low prices and control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Futures Market** - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,635 yuan/ton, with a flat change. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quote is 2,602 dollars/ton, up 4.5 dollars. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.93, down 0.01 [2]. - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 3,071 yuan/ton, up 126 yuan. The main contract position decreased by 4,814 hands [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 19,885 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The main contract position increased by 391 hands [2]. **Spot Market** - **Aluminum Spot**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 20,810 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous market AOO aluminum price is 20,720 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan. The basis of electrolytic aluminum is 175 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - **Alumina Spot**: The spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,080 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of alumina is 9 yuan/ton, down 126 yuan [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Spot**: The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in the country is 20,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 215 yuan/ton, down 495 yuan [2]. **Upstream Situation** - **Alumina**: The production volume is 748.80 million tons, up 16.50 million tons. The demand is 720.02 million tons, up 26.32 million tons. The supply - demand balance is - 25.26 million tons, down 15.33 million tons. The import volume is 6.75 million tons, up 5.68 million tons, and the export volume is 21.00 million tons, down 5.00 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan is 16,350 yuan/ton, unchanged. China's import volume of aluminum scrap is 159,700.92 tons, down 30,651.64 tons, and the export volume is 72.44 tons, up 35.90 tons [2]. **Industry Situation** - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The total production capacity is 4,520.20 million tons, up 2.00 million tons. The production volume is not mentioned separately. The import volume is 223,095.59 tons, down 27,381.21 tons, and the export volume is 32,094.07 tons, up 18,421.29 tons. The social inventory is 42.20 million tons, down 0.20 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Products**: The production volume is 576.20 million tons, down 0.20 million tons. The export volume of un - wrought aluminum and aluminum products is 55.00 million tons, up 3.00 million tons [2]. **Downstream and Application** - **Automobile**: The production volume is 264.20 million vehicles, up 3.80 million vehicles [2]. - **Real Estate**: The national real estate prosperity index is 93.72, down 0.13 [2]. **Option Situation** The purchase - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.25, up 0.0183 compared with the previous period. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of Shanghai aluminum main contract is 9.69%, up 0.0056 [2]. **Industry News** - China's light industry has achieved growth in the first five months of this year. The manufacturing PMI in June has rebounded [2]. - Automobile sales in June showed different trends among different brands [2]. - The Fed Chairman mentioned the possibility of interest - rate cuts, and the US manufacturing PMI in June was still in the contraction range [2].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the copper and aluminum sectors, highlighting the ongoing value reassessment driven by interest rate cut expectations and inflows from insurance capital [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Interest Rate Impact**: Enhanced expectations for interest rate cuts are expected to lead to a resonance of value and cyclical capital inflows in the copper and aluminum sectors, improving marginal pricing power [3][4]. - **Supply Constraints**: The copper supply side remains tight, with a projected increase of only 370,000 tons in 2025, significantly lower than previous forecasts. This includes reductions from major mines, exacerbated by U.S. investigations affecting global inventory movements [6][7]. - **Valuation Levels**: The copper sector is currently valued below historical averages, with companies like Zijin Mining showing recovery from lows but still reflecting market concerns about demand and macroeconomic expectations [9][10]. - **Aluminum Sector Attributes**: The aluminum sector is characterized by high dividends and low valuations, with leading companies like Hongqiao seeing gradual increases in valuation centers. The sector's overall PB and PE ratios are low, with high dividend yields indicating strong long-term growth potential [13][14]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Opportunities**: Recommended companies for investment include Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, with a focus on undervalued stocks in the Hong Kong market. Other notable mentions include China Nonferrous Mining, Minmetals Resources, and China Gold International, which are expected to see significant volume increases [12][17]. - **Market Trends**: The copper and aluminum markets are in a stable rebound phase, with strong demand resilience despite short-term fluctuations in solar photovoltaic orders. Long-term aluminum demand growth is projected to outpace that of copper and steel [15][16]. - **Insurance Capital Inflows**: Insurance capital is projected to flow into the copper and aluminum sectors, with estimates of annual inflows around 700 to 800 billion, indicating strong confidence in price stability [5][8]. Conclusion - The copper and aluminum sectors present significant investment opportunities due to favorable macroeconomic conditions, supply constraints, and attractive valuations. Investors are encouraged to focus on long-term growth potential while being mindful of short-term market fluctuations.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market is influenced by the balance between macro - expectations and off - season effects, and is expected to move in a volatile manner. For alumina, the fundamentals show an oversupply and stable demand situation, with stable bauxite prices providing some cost support. For electrolytic aluminum, the supply is relatively stable, demand is affected by the season in the short - term but is expected to improve in the long - term, and macro sentiment dominates the market changes. The recommended strategy is to conduct light - position volatile trading for both the main contracts of Shanghai aluminum and alumina, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [6]. - The casting aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with continuous accumulation of industrial inventory. It is recommended to conduct light - position volatile trading for the main casting aluminum contract, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [8]. - Given that the aluminum price is expected to move in a volatile manner in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [74]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly with a weekly increase of 0.56%, closing at 20,580 yuan/ton; alumina rebounded from a low level with a weekly increase of 3.32%, closing at 2,986 yuan/ton. Alumina's fundamentals are in a stage of oversupply and stable demand, and bauxite price stability provides cost support. Electrolytic aluminum's supply is relatively stable, short - term demand is affected by the season, and long - term demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to conduct light - position volatile trading for both [6]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The main casting aluminum contract fluctuated strongly with a weekly increase of 0.76%, closing at 19,790 yuan/ton. It is in a situation of weak supply and demand with continuous inventory accumulation. It is recommended to conduct light - position volatile trading [8]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes**: As of June 27, 2025, Shanghai aluminum's closing price was 20,780 yuan/ton, up 1.54% from June 20; LME aluminum's closing price was 2,585 US dollars/ton, up 2.36% from June 20; the Shanghai - London ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.97, up 0.13 from June 20. Alumina's futures price was 3,075 yuan/ton, up 2.57% from June 20; the main casting aluminum alloy's closing price was 19,790 yuan/ton, up 0.76% from June 20 [11][12][15]. - **Position Changes**: As of June 27, 2025, Shanghai aluminum's open interest was 670,796 lots, up 3.66% from June 20; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was 4,602 lots, an increase of 24,530 lots from June 20 [18]. - **Price Spread Changes**: As of June 27, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 1,830 yuan/ton, an increase of 450 yuan/ton from June 20; the copper - aluminum futures price spread was 59,340 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,815 yuan/ton from June 20 [23]. - **Spot Price Changes**: As of June 27, 2025, the average alumina price in Henan was 3,090 yuan/ton, down 2.52% from June 20; in Shanxi, it was 3,120 yuan/ton, down 2.53% from June 20; in Guiyang, it was 3,120 yuan/ton, down 2.53% from June 20. The national average price of casting aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 20,100 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from June 20. The A00 aluminum ingot's spot price was 20,940 yuan/ton, up 1.16% from June 20, with a spot premium of 80 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week [26][29]. 3. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of June 26, 2025, LME's electrolytic aluminum inventory was 336,900 tons, down 2.33% from June 19; as of June 27, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic aluminum inventory was 94,290 tons, down 9.76% from last week; the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 424,000 tons, up 2.66% from June 19. As of June 27, 2025, the total registered warrants of electrolytic aluminum in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 34,390 tons, down 32.74% from June 20; as of June 26, 2025, LME's total registered electrolytic aluminum warrants were 322,850 tons, up 0.33% from June 19 [33]. - **Bauxite**: In May 2025, alumina production was 7.488 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; from January to May, the cumulative alumina production was 37.401 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. The current inventory of nine domestic bauxite ports is 24.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 120,000 tons [37]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: As of the latest data this week, the price of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong was 16,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton. In May 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments was 159,700.92 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%; the export volume was 72.44 tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.3% [43]. - **Alumina**: In May 2025, alumina production was 7.488 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; from January to May, the cumulative alumina production was 37.401 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. In May 2025, the alumina import volume was 67,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 530.46%, a year - on - year decrease of 26.27%; the export volume was 210,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 110%. From January to May, the cumulative alumina import was 167,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 85.45% [46]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In May 2025, electrolytic aluminum production was 3.828 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; from January to May, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum output was 18.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In May 2025, the domestic in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.139 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.09%, a year - on - year increase of 2.65%; the total capacity was 45.202 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.04%, a year - on - year increase of 0.81%; the operating rate was 97.65%, an increase of 0.05% from last month, a decrease of 1.75% from the same period last year [53]. - **Aluminum Products**: In May 2025, the aluminum product output was 5.762 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%; from January to May, the cumulative aluminum product output was 26.831 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. In May 2025, the aluminum product import volume was 350,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.7%; the export volume was 550,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. From January to May, the aluminum product import volume was 1.67 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%; the export volume was 2.43 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.1% [57]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: In May 2025, the production of recycled aluminum alloy was 616,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 57,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.43%. In May 2025, the newly built capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.271 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0%, a year - on - year increase of 20.29% [60]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In May 2025, the aluminum alloy production was 1.645 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.7%; from January to May, the cumulative aluminum alloy production was 7.405 million tons. In May 2025, the aluminum alloy import volume was 97,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.12%; the export volume was 24,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.32%. From January to May, the aluminum alloy import volume was 464,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.41%; the export volume was 94,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.44% [63]. - **Real Estate**: In May 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.72, a decrease of 0.13 from last month, an increase of 1.81 from the same period last year. From January to May 2024, the newly started housing area was 231.8361 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 22.95%; the completed housing area was 183.8514 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 40.94% [66]. - **Infrastructure and Automobiles**: From January to May 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 10.42% year - on - year. In May 2025, China's automobile sales volume was 2,686,337 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.15%; China's automobile production was 2,648,536 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.65% [69]. 4. Options Market Analysis - Given that the future aluminum price is expected to move in a volatile manner, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [74].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-27 铝期货方面：2025-06-26日沪铝主力合约开于20340元/吨，收于20445元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨150元/ 吨，涨幅0.74%，最高价达20455元/吨，最低价达到20325元/吨。全天交易日成交152410手，较上一交易日增 加35033手，全天交易日持仓260549手，较上一交易日增加6534手。 库存方面，截止2025-06-26，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存46.3万吨。截止2025-06-26，LME铝库存336900 吨，较前一交易日减少1000吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-06-26 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3095元/吨，山东价格录得3095元/吨，广西价格录得 3190元/吨，澳洲氧化铝FOB价格录得370美元/吨。 氧化铝期货方面：2025-06-26氧化铝主力合约开于2915元/吨，收于2948元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨42元/ 吨，涨幅1.45%，最高价达到2952元/吨，最低价为2915元/吨。全天交易日成交325494手，较上一交易日增加 92693手，全天交易日持仓290722手，较上一交易日增加6178手。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Oscillating [4] - Alumina: Medium - to long - term oscillating weakly, short - term consider cautious short - selling for far - month contracts [5] - Aluminum: Short - term oscillating, medium - term oscillating weakly [7] - Aluminum Alloy: Spot AD is weak in the off - season, and the futures price is pressured following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [8] - Zinc: Oscillating weakly [9] - Lead: Oscillating [15] - Nickel: Oscillating weakly in the short - term, suggest long - term position take profit [20] - Stainless Steel: Oscillating in the short - term [25] - Tin: Oscillating [26] 2. Core Viewpoints - The US dollar hits a new low this year, and non - ferrous metals reach a new high since early April. In the short - to medium - term, the weak US dollar, low LME inventories, and weak demand expectations are intertwined, leading non - ferrous metals to oscillate upward. Focus on structural opportunities and cautiously consider short - term long opportunities for copper, aluminum, and tin. In the long - term, the demand outlook for base metals remains uncertain, and consider short - selling opportunities for some oversupplied or expected - to - be - oversupplied varieties on price rallies [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - The US dollar index declines, and copper prices remain high. The Fed maintains the federal funds rate, and a major global copper mine initiates mid - year negotiations. China's electrolytic copper production increases. Spot premiums rise, and inventories slightly increase. Macro factors boost copper prices, and supply risks exist while demand is in the off - season. The short - term outlook is high - level oscillation [4] 3.1.2 Alumina - Weekly inventories increase, and the futures spread is high. Spot prices mostly decline, and overseas transactions show price increases. In the short - to medium - term, there is no shortage of ore, and the spot price center moves down. The long - term situation is affected by events, and the outlook is medium - to long - term oscillation with a weakening trend [5] 3.1.3 Aluminum - Regional premiums and discounts are differentiated, and the electrolytic aluminum futures oscillate. Prices decline slightly, and inventories show a mixed trend. In the short - term, there is inventory accumulation, and in the medium - term, consumption may face pressure [7] 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - Spot trading is light, and the aluminum alloy futures oscillate. The off - season pressure on the automotive industry is high, and the electrolytic aluminum situation eases. In the long - term, there is an expected seasonal increase in demand, and the futures price follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [8] 3.1.5 Zinc - The supply - demand fundamentals remain unchanged, and consider short - selling opportunities on price rallies. Spot premiums vary, and inventories slightly decline. Macro factors are neutral, supply is loosening, and demand is in the off - season. The outlook is oscillating weakly [12] 3.1.6 Lead - The off - season of consumption is coming to an end, and lead prices oscillate. Spot prices and inventories show certain changes. Supply decreases slightly, and demand is recovering. The outlook is oscillation [15] 3.1.7 Nickel - Market sentiment improves, and long - term positions should be gradually taken profit. LME and domestic inventories change, and there are various industry developments. Market sentiment dominates, and the industry fundamentals are weakening. The short - term outlook is wide - range oscillation [20] 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - The expectation of supply contraction increases, and the futures price continues to rise. Futures and spot prices change, and the price of Indonesian nickel ore is affected by the rainy season. Cost support weakens, and the short - term outlook is range - bound oscillation [25] 3.1.9 Tin - Supply disturbances reappear, and tin prices oscillate. Warehouse receipts and spot prices change. The supply from the main producing areas is tight, and the fundamentals are resilient. The outlook is oscillation [26] 3.2行情监测 - The document does not provide specific content for this part, so it is skipped.

有色金属专场 - 年度中期策略会 20260626 摘要 铜价 2024 年上半年受中国需求、美国物流套利及市场博弈驱动上涨， 伦铜需突破 9,580 美元或触及 10,000 美元面临技术阻力，下半年关注 美国 232 关税政策、国内消费淡季及矿产供应变化等不确定性因素。 铜市场长线投资逻辑在于电力电网升级和新增消费领域带来的需求增长， 但矿产供应增速可能难以跟上，2024 年矿产供应增量超预期，2025 年 可能下降，2026 年可能较高，2027 年可能出现供应问题。 锡市场价格波动受矿损事件和供应预期影响，加工费极低。光伏产业对 锡需求至关重要，但美国对东盟光伏电池征税带来不确定性。半导体销 售周期预计下半年达峰值，AI 基础设施投资影响传统 3C 品类出口。 铝市场需求韧性较强，全年过剩压力较低。铜铝价格走势与去年相关， 近期铝偏强。铝产业链利润重新分配，电解铝利润较好，上游矿端利润 压缩，氧化铝困难，下游加工端利润下降。 几内亚铝土矿发运量维持高位，预计 2025 年增量可观。中国铝土矿进 口量增长，但存在过剩。几内亚事件后铝土矿价格下跌后企稳，预计难 以回到 70 美元以下。 Q&A 2025 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-26 中东局势反复，铝价或维持震荡 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20530元/吨，较上一交易日下跌10元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日下跌10元/吨至130元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20360元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日 持平于-30元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20420元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日下跌5元/吨至30元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-06-25日沪铝主力合约开于20300元/吨，收于20355元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨25元/ 吨，涨幅0.12%，最高价达20360元/吨，最低价达到20240元/吨。全天交易日成交117377手，较上一交易日减 少19256手，全天交易日持仓254015手，较上一交易日增加3930手。 库存方面，截止2025-06-23，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存46.4万吨。截止2025-06-25，LME铝库存337900 吨，较前一交易日减少2000吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-06-25 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3110元/吨，山东价格录得3120元/吨， ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The aluminum and magnesium alloy industry is experiencing significant developments, particularly in the automotive sector, with a focus on the application of magnesium alloys as a substitute for aluminum [1][2][4][10]. Key Points on Aluminum Industry - **Alumina Supply and Demand**: The supply-demand balance for bauxite is expected to remain loose in 2025, leading to stable profits for electrolytic aluminum throughout the year [1][3]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Profitability**: The profit logic for electrolytic aluminum remains unchanged, with the price expected to rebound above 20,000 yuan despite fluctuations in alumina prices and tariff impacts [3][9]. - **Market Dynamics**: The second quarter of 2025 saw a tariff adjustment that exerted downward pressure on commodity prices, but the supply of electrolytic aluminum remains rigid due to near-capacity domestic production and slow overseas expansion [8][9]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies with low self-sufficiency rates in alumina, such as Yun Aluminum, Shenhuo, and Zhongfu, along with Tianshan Aluminum and Hongbao, are identified as having investment value due to their attractive valuations [1][9]. Key Points on Magnesium Alloy Industry - **Growth in Automotive Applications**: The application of magnesium alloys in the automotive sector is accelerating, with significant potential for demand growth as aluminum is replaced in certain segments [1][4][10]. - **Market Demand and Supply**: The global production of magnesium is around 1 million tons, while aluminum production is approximately 60-70 million tons. The demand for magnesium could multiply if aluminum is replaced in specific applications [4][10]. - **Price Stability**: Despite increased demand for magnesium in the automotive sector, it is unlikely to cause significant price spikes due to existing and anticipated production capacities that can meet the additional demand [13]. - **Key Players**: Companies like Xinyuan Zhuomei and Baowu Magnesium are positioned well in the market, with Xinyuan focusing on die-casting and Baowu leveraging integrated production advantages [14][15]. Additional Insights - **Alumina Price Trends**: The price of alumina is expected to fluctuate between 2,700 and 2,900 yuan, supported by import costs despite potential downward trends due to new capacities coming online [5]. - **Electrolytic Sodium Market**: The demand for electrolytic sodium is projected to grow significantly, driven by factors such as new energy vehicles and government policies, despite some drag from real estate and exports [6]. - **Future Outlook**: The next one to two years are anticipated to be critical for the magnesium alloy industry, with low raw material prices enhancing acceptance among automotive manufacturers and leading to significant growth opportunities for key players [16].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum: The current situation remains strong, and the market is waiting for confirmation of the inventory inflection point. The high premium and low inventory situation persists, and the impact of pre - emptive export demand on subsequent demand needs dynamic observation. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and export shipping capacity. From a micro - fundamental perspective, aluminum ingot social inventory continues to decline, and downstream production and processing profits are under pressure [3]. - Alumina: It is in a dilemma of continuous复产 but low inventory. The disk is slightly supported due to tight warrant supplies. The market expects the inventory inflection point to be approaching, but inventory data from different sources shows divergence. The current price valuation is a key factor in the long - short game [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Side: Spreads, Volume, and Open Interest - **Term Spreads**: The term structure of SHFE aluminum shows a B - structure, and the B - structure of alumina term spreads narrows. The average SMM A00 aluminum premium has changed from - 210 yuan/ton to 180 yuan/ton, and the average SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) premium has changed from - 425 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton. The term B - structure of alumina has narrowed, with the premium of Shandong and Henan alumina to the current month decreasing [9]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The monthly spreads of SHFE aluminum have narrowed. The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract has decreased from 120 yuan/ton to 95 yuan/ton, and the spread percentage has decreased from 0.58% to 0.46% [5]. - **Open Interest and Volume**: The open interest of the SHFE aluminum main contract has significantly declined, and the trading volume has also decreased. The open interest of the alumina main contract remains stable at a high level, and the trading volume has rebounded during the week [13]. - **Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - to - inventory ratio of SHFE aluminum has declined, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio of alumina has continued to fall and is at a historically low level [17]. 3.2 Inventory: Bauxite, Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Materials - **Bauxite**: As of June 20, the port inventory of imported bauxite has decreased by 250,000 tons week - on - week, and the port inventory days remain the same. As of May, the port inventory and inventory days of Chinese bauxite in the阿拉丁 caliber have continued to increase. In May, the bauxite inventory of 43 sample enterprises has increased by 4.487 million tons month - on - month, and the inventory days in alumina plants have also increased. Port shipments and sea - floating inventories show differentiation, and the outbound volume has increased while the inbound volume has decreased [23][28][29]. - **Alumina**: The total national inventory has increased, with the factory inventory decreasing, the electrolytic aluminum plant inventory increasing slightly, the port inventory increasing, and the platform/in - transit inventory decreasing. The阿拉丁 full - caliber inventory has continued to decrease, with the factory inventory decreasing by 32,000 tons week - on - week, the electrolytic aluminum plant inventory increasing by 10,000 tons, the port inventory decreasing by 2,000 tons, and the yard/platform/in - transit inventory increasing by 19,000 tons [42][48]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The social inventory has continued to decline rapidly. As of June 12, the weekly inventory of aluminum ingots has decreased by 13,000 tons to 450,000 tons, and the destocking rhythm has accelerated [49]. - **Aluminum Rods**: The spot inventory and factory inventory of downstream aluminum rods have increased, and the outbound volume has decreased [54]. 3.3 Production: Output, Capacity, and Operating Rate - **Bauxite**: In May, the domestic bauxite supply showed a recovery trend, but the latest data from Steel Union in May showed a decline. The supply of domestic mines in different provinces was differentiated, with production in some provinces increasing and in others decreasing [60][64]. - **Alumina**: The capacity utilization rate has rebounded. As of June 20, the total operating capacity of national alumina is 88.6 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 100,000 tons. The weekly output of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina is 1.715 million tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from last week, and the supply - side loosening pattern remains unchanged [68]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of May, the operating capacity remains at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate has significantly rebounded due to profit repair. As of June 19, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum is 844,700 tons, an increase of 800 tons from last week. The proportion of molten aluminum has seasonally increased [71]. - **Downstream Processing**: The output of aluminum plate, strip, and foil has continued to decline slightly, with a weekly decrease of 5,700 tons. The output of recycled aluminum rods has increased by 540 tons week - on - week, and the output of aluminum rods has increased by 1,100 tons week - on - week. The operating rate of leading downstream enterprises has declined, and each segment shows differentiation [74][77]. 3.4 Profit: Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Materials - **Alumina**: The profit continues to recover. The profit of metallurgical - grade alumina according to Steel Union is 388.5 yuan/ton. The profits of alumina in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan have all increased, and the profit performance in Guangxi is better than other regions [85]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit remains at a high level, but complex global macro - economic situations, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies have increased uncertainties and interfered with market expectations [92]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods has significantly declined, with a weekly decrease of 50 yuan/ton, and the downstream processing profit remains at a low level [93]. 3.5 Consumption: Import and Export Profits and Losses, and Apparent Demand - **Import Profits and Losses**: The import profits and losses of alumina and SHFE aluminum have rebounded [101]. - **Export**: In May, the export of processed aluminum materials has significantly weakened. In April 2025, the export of un - wrought aluminum and aluminum products continued to increase, with a month - on - month increase of 12,000 tons. The export profits and losses of aluminum processed materials show differentiation, and export demand is hindered by trade policy adjustments [103][106]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The transaction area of commercial housing has rebounded, and automobile production has increased month - on - month [111].