Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Long position in SHFE aluminum futures [4] Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, the short - term variability of US tariffs causes aluminum price fluctuations, and the unpredictability of US policy disturbances should be vigilant. The social inventory is rapidly declining, and the spot premium is firm. The supply side has no negative factors, but the sustainability of consumption may change in June. As the industry profit is high, it is difficult for the aluminum price to break through upwards without unexpected positive stimuli, and the risk of cost collapse should be watched [3]. - For alumina, the spot price is strong while the futures price is weak, with the futures deeply discounted to the spot. The warrant inventory has dropped to 140,000 tons and may continue to decline. Even if the Axis mine stops production completely, there will be no shortage of bauxite supply throughout the year. The industry profit has recovered significantly, and the production of previously shut - down projects is likely to resume, and the social inventory is expected to stop falling and rebound soon [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Price and Inventory - Aluminum spot: On May 29, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,380 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,310 yuan/ton; the Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,230 yuan/ton [1]. - Aluminum futures: On May 29, 2025, the main SHFE aluminum contract opened at 20,115 yuan/ton, closed at 20,200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton or 0.25% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 168,323 lots, an increase of 34,429 lots, and the open interest was 207,900 lots, an increase of 4,339 lots [1]. - Aluminum inventory: As of May 29, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 511,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 375,075 tons, a decrease of 2,250 tons from the previous trading day [1]. Alumina Price and Inventory - Alumina spot: On May 29, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,290 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,260 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,290 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 370 US dollars/ton. 5,000 tons of alumina in Guizhou were traded at 3,350 yuan/ton [2][3]. - Alumina futures: On May 29, 2025, the main alumina contract opened at 2,985 yuan/ton, closed at 2,964 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton or - 1.36% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 798,647 lots, a decrease of 244,681 lots, and the open interest was 352,989 lots, a decrease of 18,319 lots [2]. - Alumina warrant inventory: It has dropped to 140,000 tons and may continue to decline [3].

【铝】 隔夜沪铝偏弱震荡。近期铝市库存顺畅去库至低位，强现实局面维持，不过六月需求面临季节性转 淡和贸易摩擦的考验，沪铝在前期缺口20300元关键位置仍面临阻力，考虑逢高偏空参与。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 (原油) 隔夜国际油价小幅收涨，布伦特07合约涨1.07%。昨日第39届0PEC+部长级会议宣布维持25-26年产 量基线不变，并将根据成员国最大可持续产能制定2027年产量基线，5月31日自愿减产8国的快速增 产指引仍令市场担忧。昨日利比亚东部政府表示可能宣布油田和港口的不可抗力，尽管遭到利比亚 国家石油公司否认,相关供应风险仍对市场构成支撑。上周API美原油库存超预期下降423.6万桶, 关注今晚EIA库存结果。原油总体仍存OPEC+增产压力与供应风险并存的震荡期，关注供应风险明朗 后的再次做空机会。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属回落。美国国际贸易法院阻止美国总统特朗普的"解放日"关税生效,裁定特朗普征收 全面关税属于越权行为。特朗普政府将提起上诉，最终结果仍有待观望。美联储会议纪要显示由于 经济不确定性加剧,失业率和通胀率上升的风险增加,决策者观望的政策立场不应改 ...

文 | 江 露 来 源 | C F C 金 属 研 究 编 辑 | 杨 兰 审 核 | 浦 电 路 交 易 员 正 文 | 黄金 | 白银 | 铜 | 铝 | 氧化铝 | 锌 | 镇 | 锡 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 27. 0% | 9.3% | 4.9% | -1.5% | -35. 6% | -12. 8% | -0.7% | 6.7% | | 碳酸锂 | 工业研 | 多晶硅 | 硅铁/锰硅 | 螺纹钢 | 热卷 | 煤焦 | 铁矿石 | | -15. 2% | -24. 1% | -15. 4% | -12. 4%/- 5.3% | -8.2% | -7.4% | -23.9%/- 19. 4% | -10. 7% | 2.1 宏观展望:康波视角下当前周期判断 ◆ 目前已步入萧条:衰退时点为2009年,萧条转换点在2019年 图表:康波周期的划分 | 康波 | 繁荣 | 裹退 | 萧条 | 复苏 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 第一轮(纺织工业和 | 1782~1802 | 181 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The copper price is expected to fluctuate around 78,000 yuan, with subsequent inventory accumulation likely to be slow due to strong support from the current fundamentals and macro - environment [1] - The aluminum price is expected to rebound with inventory reduction, and the calendar spread long - position can be held if the absolute price drops [1] - For zinc, it is recommended to short at high prices and consider partial profit - taking for the domestic - foreign calendar spread long - position [2] - Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored [3] - The stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3] - The lead price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 and 16,900 yuan next week, with supply expected to decrease in May [6] - For tin, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term and look for high - short opportunities in the long term [8] - The industrial silicon price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading large factories in the long run [9] - The lithium carbonate price is expected to decline after oscillation in the short term and remain weakly oscillating in the medium - long term [9] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - Domestic inventory continued to increase slightly this week. The earthquake in the Kamoa mining area may affect this year's production. The Manyer smelter in Indonesia will resume production, which may affect the domestic TC. The domestic copper consumption shows resilience, and the price is expected to oscillate around 78,000 yuan [1] Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, and the demand decline in May - June is not obvious. There is still a supply - demand gap, and inventory is expected to decline gently from May to July. The aluminum price is expected to rebound with inventory reduction [1] Zinc - The zinc price oscillated this week. Supply - side TC remained unchanged, and smelting maintenance decreased slightly. Demand - side domestic demand has limited elasticity, and overseas demand has slightly recovered. The inventory accumulation inflection point is expected to appear in early June [2] Nickel - The supply of pure nickel remains high, and imports from Russia increased in April. Demand is weak, and overseas inventory increased slightly. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be monitored [3] Stainless Steel - Production increased seasonally in April, and steel mills may cut production passively in May. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory increased slightly in Xijiao and Foshan. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3] Lead - The lead price oscillated downward this week. Supply - side recycling and smelting have issues, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 and 16,900 yuan next week [6] Tin - The tin price oscillated narrowly this week. Supply - side domestic production may be affected by processing fees, and overseas production has resumed. Demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for high - short opportunities in the long term [8] Industrial Silicon - The overall start - up rate increased slightly this week. The market is at a low level, and inventory is gradually decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the long run [9] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price rebounded after a decline this week. Supply - side production and inventory changes are complex, and demand is weak. The price is expected to decline after oscillation in the short term and remain weakly oscillating in the medium - long term [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The news about Guinea's mines still has uncertainties, and the unstable raw material supply is expected to support the alumina price to remain strong. However, after the significant increase in the alumina price, the profit margin has recovered, and the production willingness of enterprises has increased. There may be复产 in the future, so the production changes of alumina enterprises need to be closely monitored. The short - term supply - demand situation of alumina is tight, and the price remains favorable, but the increase may be limited [2][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data - From May 16th to May 23rd, the alumina futures (active) rose from 2890 yuan/ton to 3169 yuan/ton, an increase of 279 yuan/ton; the domestic alumina spot rose from 2991 yuan/ton to 3220 yuan/ton, an increase of 229 yuan/ton; the spot premium decreased from 46 yuan/ton to - 6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton; the Australian alumina FOB remained at 370 US dollars/ton; the import profit and loss increased from - 338.93 yuan/ton to - 91.44 yuan/ton, an increase of 247.5 yuan/ton; the exchange warehouse inventory decreased from 197,535 tons to 156,999 tons, a decrease of 40,536 tons; the exchange factory warehouse inventory remained at 7200 tons; the prices of domestic bauxite in Shanxi, Henan, Guangxi, and Guizhou remained stable, while the Guinea CIF increased from 70 US dollars/ton to 72 US dollars/ton [3] Market Review - The main alumina futures contract rose 9.96% last week, closing at 3169 yuan/ton. The national weighted average of the spot market was reported at 3220 yuan/ton on Friday, up 229 yuan/ton from last week. The spot circulation volume of domestic bauxite is limited, and the alumina enterprises have no plan to adjust the ore purchase price this week. The price continues to run stably. For imported bauxite, the future development of the affected mining areas in Guinea is still unclear, and it is necessary to further monitor whether the subsequent development of this event will worsen the bauxite supply situation. In the short term, the price of imported bauxite is clearly supported by positive factors, and the price center may rise. On the supply side, alumina enterprises are both reducing and increasing production. Some alumina enterprises in Shanxi are reducing production, while some previously overhauled enterprises have ended their overhauls, and new northern production capacities are releasing output. The operating production capacity of alumina has slightly increased, the supply change is limited, and the spot is still in a short - term tight situation. As of May 22nd, China's alumina production capacity was 112.2 million tons, the operating production capacity was 86.35 million tons, and the operating rate was 76.96%. On the consumption side, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Shandong is continuing to transfer to Yunnan. In addition, the production capacity in Guangxi and Sichuan is being restored. Overall, the operating production capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry has continued to increase this week, and the demand for alumina has slightly increased. In terms of inventory, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 130,658 tons to 157,000 tons last Friday, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 7200 tons [4] Market Outlook - Last week, the mining end in Guinea experienced a process of escalating and then easing disturbances. At the beginning of the week, the Guinea government designated multiple mining licenses as strategic reserve areas, making the resumption of production in the suspended mining areas in Guinea more uncertain. Near the weekend, there was news that the mine owners whose bauxite mining licenses were revoked in Guinea could resume production by paying the local development contribution or participating in the re - bidding. On the supply side, alumina enterprises both reduced and increased production last week. Some alumina plants in Shanxi reduced production, while some previously overhauled enterprises released output after resuming production. The theoretical operating production capacity increased slightly compared with the previous week. On the consumption side, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity was basically stable, and there was still a slight gap in the theoretical production capacity matching last week. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory continued to decrease by 130,658 tons to 157,000 tons last week, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 7200 tons. Overall, the news about Guinea's mines still has uncertainties, and the unstable raw material supply is expected to support the alumina price to remain strong. However, after the significant increase in the alumina price, the profit margin has recovered, and the production willingness of enterprises has increased. There may be复产 in the future, so the production changes of alumina enterprises need to be closely monitored. The short - term supply - demand situation of alumina is tight, and the price remains favorable, but the increase may be limited [6] Industry News - The issue of the Guinea government revoking the mining licenses of some mines has further escalated. On the evening of Tuesday, May 20, 2025, the transitional authorities read out a decree on national television, deciding to classify multiple mining rights as strategic reserve areas, including concessions, industrial and semi - industrial mining licenses, and exploration licenses for bauxite, iron, gold, diamonds, and graphite. In the first quarter of this year, the characteristic industries in Bozhou District, Zunyi City showed new vitality. The electrolytic aluminum output exceeded 100,000 tons, and the output value of the bauxite industrial chain increased. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in April 2025, China's alumina output was 7.323 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%; the cumulative output from January to April was 29.919 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%. In April, the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.754 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%; the cumulative output from January to April was 14.793 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. In April, the aluminum product output was 5.764 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%; the cumulative output from January to April was 21.117 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In April, the aluminum alloy output was 1.528 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%; the cumulative output from January to April was 5.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.7% [7] Related Charts - The report provides charts on alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premiums, alumina current - continuous one inter - period spreads, domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite CIF, caustic soda prices, thermal coal prices, alumina cost - profit, and alumina exchange inventory [9][10][11][12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are currently fluctuating around 78,000 yuan, with the current fundamentals and macro - environment strongly supporting electrolytic copper. Aluminum prices are expected to rebound with inventory reduction, and long - short spreads in the month can be held if the absolute price drops. Zinc prices are oscillating, and it is recommended to short at high prices and partially take profit on long - short spreads. Nickel - stainless steel ratio contraction opportunities can be continuously monitored. Stainless steel is expected to oscillate in the short term. Lead is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 16,900 yuan next week. Tin is recommended to be observed in the short term and high - short opportunities should be monitored in the long term. Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the long term. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the medium - long term and decline after oscillation next week [1][2][3][6][8][10][11] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased by 35, the waste - refined copper spread decreased by 40, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1,652 [1] - **Supply**: Due to the earthquake in the Kamoa mining area, some mining areas stopped production, which may affect this year's output. The Manyer smelter in Indonesia will start feeding and resuming production in early June, which may improve the shortage of electrolytic copper premiums in Southeast Asia but have an adverse impact on domestic TC [1] - **Demand**: The consumption of domestic electrolytic copper shows resilience. The State Grid has issued the second batch of tenders this year, and the cable consumption and orders in the remaining time of the second quarter are expected to be strong. However, the consumption of several sectors shows a weakening trend [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 10 yuan, the Yangtze River aluminum ingot price increased by 20 yuan, and the domestic alumina price increased by 59 yuan [1] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has increased slightly, and the import of aluminum ingots from January to April was large. The demand from May to June is not expected to decline significantly, and there is still a supply - demand gap. The inventory is expected to be slowly reduced from May to July [1] Zinc - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the spot premium decreased by 10, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 60, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,725 [2] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: Domestic TC and imported TC remained unchanged this week, and the smelting maintenance in May decreased slightly compared with the previous month. Demand: Domestic demand has limited elasticity, and overseas demand has slightly recovered. The domestic social inventory is slowly increasing, and the inflection point of accelerated inventory accumulation is expected to appear in early June [2] Nickel - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 150 [3] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: The production of pure nickel remains at a high level, and the import of Russian nickel increased in April. Demand: Overall demand is weak. Inventory: Overseas nickel plate inventory has slightly increased, and domestic inventory remains stable [3] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of 201 cold - rolled coil decreased by 100 [6] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: Production increased seasonally in April, and steel mills may cut production passively in May. Demand: It is mainly driven by rigid demand. Cost: The prices of ferronickel and ferrochrome remain stable. Inventory: The inventory in Xijiao and Foshan has slightly increased [6] Lead - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the spot premium decreased by 30, and the LME lead inventory increased by 47,675 [7][8] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: The scrap volume is weak year - on - year. Middle - stream recycling smelters have concentrated production capacity, and the demand for waste batteries is tight. Demand: Battery export orders have slightly declined, and overall demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 16,900 yuan next week [8] Tin - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the spot import profit decreased by 3,040.30, and the LME tin inventory remained unchanged [10] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: The short - term resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State requires negotiation. The domestic Jiangxi region has partially cut production, and the Yunnan region is struggling to maintain production. Demand: The elasticity of solder consumption is limited, and the downstream lacks the motivation to further destock. It is recommended to observe in the short term and monitor high - short opportunities in the long term [10] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 35, and the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 35 [11] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: The overall start - up has slightly increased. Demand: The demand for silicone and polysilicon is declining. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and social inventory has started to be reduced. In the long term, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [11] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the SMM electric carbon price remained unchanged, and the SMM industrial carbon price remained unchanged [11] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: The production lines of Tianqi and Yahua have resumed work, and small recycling plants have intensified production cuts. Demand: Downstream demand is weak, and the demand improvement by policies is less than expected. In the medium - long term, prices are expected to oscillate weakly and decline after oscillation next week [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The aluminum industry is expected to benefit from favorable domestic policies and supply disruptions in Guinea affecting bauxite supply, leading to potential price increases and inventory reductions [6][9] - The report highlights that the aluminum industry is likely to experience a sustained "de-inventory + price increase" trend, supported by improving export conditions and limited supply growth [9] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of May 23, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2466.0 per ton, while the Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was ¥20155.0 per ton [19] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was ¥20400.0 per ton, showing a week-on-week increase of ¥170.0 [19] 2. Production - In April 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 360.6 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10.8 million tons but a year-on-year increase of 2.5 million tons [51] - The production of alumina in April 2025 was 708.4 million tons, down 46.6 million tons month-on-month but up 30.2 million tons year-on-year [51] 3. Inventory - As of May 22, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 557,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 24,000 tons [6] - The inventory of aluminum rods was 130,800 tons, down 740 tons week-on-week, remaining at a three-year low [6] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies include Shenhuo Co., China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, China Aluminum, and Yun Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the aluminum resource sector, indicating a positive outlook due to supply disruptions in bauxite and alumina prices [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the Guinean government's revocation of multiple bauxite mining rights may lead to a domestic bauxite shortage, potentially supporting bauxite and alumina prices [6][7]. - The report suggests that the acquisition of overseas potassium fertilizer projects by Salt Lake Co. could enhance its global presence and production capacity [6][7]. - The report expresses optimism for the performance of small metals such as tin, cobalt, and antimony in the medium to long term [6][7]. Industry Overview Aluminum Industry - The report notes that as of May 2025, there are 126 listed companies in the aluminum sector with a total market capitalization of approximately 288.51 billion yuan [3]. - The report indicates that Guinea accounts for 26% of global bauxite reserves and 29% of global production, with China importing 110 million tons of Guinean bauxite in 2024, representing 69.4% of total imports [6][7]. - The report emphasizes the potential for a shift from surplus to shortage in domestic bauxite supply, which could lead to price support for bauxite and alumina [6][7]. New Energy Metals and Minor Metals - The report discusses Salt Lake Co.'s intention to invest around 300 million USD in acquiring shares of Highland Resources, positioning it as a major stakeholder and enhancing its control over key potassium projects [6][7]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with clear growth potential in tin and cobalt, such as Xinyi Silver Tin and Luoyang Molybdenum [6][7].

评级：推荐(维持) 证券研究报告 2025年05月18日 有色金属 铝行业周报：中美双边关税大幅下降，库存维持强势表现 《铝行业周报：关税压力缓和，政策定调积极（推荐）*有色金属*王璇，陈 晨》——2025-04-28 《铝行业周报：去库表现强势，关注需求及出口走向（推荐）*有色金属*王璇， 陈晨》——2025-04-21 《铝行业周报：关税压力缓解，铝价压制减弱，关注需求变化（推荐）*有色 金属*王璇，陈晨》——2025-04-14 沪深300表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 2.7% | 1.3% | -0.0% | | 沪深300 | 3.1% | -1.3% | 6.8% | 请务必阅读报告附注中的风险提示和免责声明 2 陈晨（证券分析师） 王璇（证券分析师） S0350522110007 S0350523080001 chenc09@ghzq.com.cn wangx15@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 -24% -16% -8% 1% 9% 17% 2024/05 2024/08 2024/11 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The long - term upward trend of copper remains intact, with high - level volatility. The 2025 annual average price is expected to be around $9400, higher than in 2024. Trade negotiations and global trade order are key concerns [2][8]. - Aluminum prices are relatively high, with the supply growth rate expected to decline in 2025. The price may be high in the first half and low in the second half, and macro factors may amplify price fluctuations [9][15]. - Zinc consumption has a weak outlook, and the price is expected to range between RMB 21,000 - 25,500 per ton for SHFE zinc and $2500 - 3300 per ton for LME zinc [17][36]. - Tin fundamentals are strong, and prices are expected to remain high - level volatile. The estimated price range is RMB 236,000 - 305,000 per ton for SHFE tin and $29,000 - 38,000 per ton for LME tin [37][48]. - For nickel, supply is in surplus, and costs are rising. The price of SHFE nickel is expected to have difficulty breaking through the RMB 120,000 - 130,000 per ton range [53][69]. - Lithium prices are expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, with a core price range of RMB 60,000 - 90,000 per ton [90]. - Gold prices may continue to hit new highs, with international prices predicted to reach $4000 - 4100 per ounce and domestic prices to reach RMB 920 - 950 per gram [91][103]. - Silver prices are likely to fluctuate at a high level, driven by multiple attributes [103][110]. - The industrial silicon futures market is developing steadily, and the industry is facing supply - demand imbalance, with supply exceeding demand expected to continue in 2025 [111][117]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Market - **Global Supply and Demand**: In 2024, the growth of global copper concentrate production was lower than that of demand. In 2025, many mining companies lowered production targets. The shortage of copper concentrate supply will take time to ease, and overseas medium - and long - term refined copper demand is expected to grow [2]. - **China's Supply and Demand**: Domestic scrap copper direct utilization is decreasing, and supply is expected to be tight in 2025. Refined copper production growth is constrained by raw material supply, and terminal demand is driven by power grids, home appliances, and automobiles, while the real estate sector is a drag [3][6]. - **Macro - market Analysis**: Capital inflows into copper due to its industrial and financial attributes. Trump's potential 25% tariff on copper would increase short - term price volatility and change the global supply chain [7]. - **Price Forecast**: The long - term upward trend of copper remains, but short - term policy uncertainty has a great impact. The 2025 annual average price is expected to be around $9400, higher than in 2024 [8]. Aluminum Market - **Supply Analysis**: Future new electrolytic aluminum projects are mainly in Asia. China's production growth rate will slow down in 2025, and global production growth may decline. China's imports may also decrease [10][11]. - **Demand Analysis**: Aluminum consumption growth may slow down in 2025, with exports expected to decline and domestic demand growth difficult to improve [12]. - **Price Forecast**: As long as China's production ceiling is not lifted, there is price support, but cost reduction and weak demand limit the upside. Prices may be high in the first half and low in the second half [15]. Zinc Market - **Supply Analysis**: Zinc concentrate production has been declining, but exploration investment is slowly recovering. Import volume has increased, and processing fees have rebounded [18][23]. - **Demand Analysis**: Overseas zinc consumption in various fields is still weak, while domestic consumption shows resilience, but there are potential impacts from tariffs on exports [30][31]. - **Price Forecast**: The price is expected to range between RMB 21,000 - 25,500 per ton for SHFE zinc and $2500 - 3300 per ton for LME zinc [36]. Tin Market - **2024 Market Analysis**: In 2024, tin prices rose, inventories decreased, production increased, and consumption improved [37][38]. - **2025 Trend Outlook**: Global tin ore supply may decline in 2025, and there will be a shortage of over 20,000 tons. The price is expected to remain high - level volatile [41][44]. - **Price Forecast**: The estimated price range is RMB 236,000 - 305,000 per ton for SHFE tin and $29,000 - 38,000 per ton for LME tin [48]. Nickel Market - **Supply and Demand**: Nickel ore supply is mainly from Indonesia. Supply is in surplus, and demand lacks highlights. China's stainless steel production supports nickel consumption [53][56]. - **Cost and Price**: The cost of the nickel industry is rising, and the price of SHFE nickel is expected to have difficulty breaking through the RMB 120,000 - 130,000 per ton range [60][69]. Lithium Market - **Supply and Demand**: In 2025, lithium supply is increasing, and demand is also high. There is a surplus in the market, but the surplus is narrowing [75][84]. - **Price Forecast**: Lithium prices are expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, with a core price range of RMB 60,000 - 90,000 per ton [90]. Gold Market - **Market Review**: From 2018 - 2025, various factors such as trade frictions and geopolitical conflicts have stimulated the rise of gold prices [91]. - **Price Forecast**: International gold prices are predicted to reach $4000 - 4100 per ounce, and domestic prices to reach RMB 920 - 950 per gram [103]. Silver Market - **Fundamentals**: In 2024, global silver supply increased, and demand decreased. In 2025, the supply shortage is expected to further narrow [103]. - **Price Forecast**: Silver prices are likely to fluctuate at a high level, driven by multiple attributes [110]. Silicon Market - **Futures Market**: The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets are developing steadily, with increasing trading volume and participation [111][112]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In 2025, the silicon industry is facing supply - demand imbalance, with supply exceeding demand expected to continue [114][117].