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CPI暂回踩,后续易升难降——2月物价数据解读【财通宏观•陈兴团队】
陈兴宏观研究· 2025-03-09 07:44
Group 1: CPI Analysis - The CPI year-on-year growth rate decreased to -0.7% in February, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to the impact of the Spring Festival timing [1][4] - Excluding the Spring Festival effect, the CPI year-on-year increased by 0.1% in February, indicating a moderate recovery in prices [1][4] - Food prices contributed over 80% to the total decline in CPI, with fresh vegetable prices dropping by 12.6% year-on-year [5][6] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI year-on-year decline narrowed to 2.2% in February, with the average for January-February also showing a 2.2% decrease compared to the previous year [2][7] - The main reasons for the PPI decline include the off-peak industrial production season and weak demand for construction materials [2][7] - The prices of production materials fell by 2.5%, while living materials prices decreased by 1.2%, with specific industries like coal processing seeing significant price drops [7][8] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The PMI data indicated an increase in raw material and finished product price indices, but the PPI only slightly narrowed, suggesting a discrepancy between perceived and actual market conditions [3] - The current policy uncertainty may lead to a cautious approach from enterprises, affecting production enthusiasm [3] - Positive signals from the upcoming Two Sessions may help restore market demand and improve production and demand dynamics [3]
带病上钟
猫笔刀· 2024-05-29 14:14
我今天生病了,中午的时候就不对劲,下午体温上来38.5,然后就倒床上一直挺到晚上。吃了点退烧药,但是药效还没发挥出来,现在整个人软软的坐电 脑前复盘看信息。 人的身体真的是台精密仪器,你给我端来两杯水,一杯37,一杯38,我根本喝不出差别来,但体温只要高了这1度,身体立马就不对了。 个人号就是这一点不好,博主本人不能生病,一生病就坏了。好在我过去11年也没出过啥大的意外,每次生病基本上一两天就恢复,没有那种要摊十天 半个月的。 一边看新闻,一边感觉到背上渗出了一些汗,不用量也知道体温肯定下来了,美林这退烧药确实管用,但也只管用6-7个小时,不过够了,写完夜报我就 去睡觉。 …… 1、光伏板块今天上涨2.2%,行业最近最大的变化就是从上层开始统筹供需,整体协商不要再互相内卷,大家都停下来正经做生意,多挣些钱。未 来低端产能不会新增,甚至要退出一些落后产能,也许现在就是光伏板块未来几年最差的时候。深套的可以考虑补仓,这位置的值博率高。 2、媒体报道中国或将投入60亿鼓励全固态电池的研发。这消息今天在很多证券门户刷屏,第一时间看到怪怪的,因为上升到国家层面,60亿这个 数字确实不大。也不是官方部门宣布的,就是几个媒 ...