12月24日，A股市场走势分化，有色板块早盘宽幅震荡，截至10:20，有色50ETF（159652）开盘一度涨超1.5%，现涨0.19%！ 铜、金、锂价格飙升，有色大宗狂欢，资金盘中大举借道有色板块ETF布局。截至发稿，有色50ETF（159652）盘中已获1800万份净申购，以盘中成交均价 计算，合计净申购超2900万元！昨日，有色50ETF（159652）亦获净申购超5300万元，最新规模超37亿元，同指数断档领先，融资余额也再度回升！ | | 有色50ETF | क्र 159652 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 20 / 0 + | | रुके | 88.75% 120日 | 61.48% | | 5日 | 4.68% 250日 | 78.10% | | 20日 | 10.35% 52周高 | 1.64 | | 60日 | 25.49% 52周低 | 0.80 | | 实时申购赎回信息 | 申购 | 成中 | | 肇数 | 21 | | | 金额 | O | | | 份额 | 2100万 | 300万 | | સ્ત્રેમ્બે 多日 1分 5分 | 15分 30分 = ...

作者：财富情报局水寒 12月20日，以"破局·重构"为主题的雪球嘉年华在上海举行，盛麒资产首席投资官曾文凯结合自己的投 资策略对2026年A股市场机会点进行了展望。 曾文凯建议，可以在低估值的港股中去寻找合适的投资机会。数据显示，今年南下资金已经过万亿，究 其原因就在于，由于内地资金无法向海外市场自由流动，港股便成为海量内地资金寻找出口的一个重要 方向。 对于量化资金的快速发展以及其对中国资本市场的影响，曾文凯坦言，他并不反对量化资金的存在，因 为量化资金也为中国股市提供了市场流动性。同时，盛麒资产主要投资标的集中于沪深300，而量化资 金则更多聚焦于中证500、1000等小微市值股票，彼此影响不大，"没必要禁止（量化），大家各赚各的 钱。" 同时，曾文凯对美联储降息对市场的影响也表达了自己的看法。他认为，美联储降息对美股、港股正面 影响更明显，对A股影响并不大，这是因为，A股主要是炒概念，加息降息影响并不明显。 最后，对于2026年市场展望，曾文凯表示，2026年应降低预期、谨慎乐观。因为今年各行业股票涨幅已 较大，降低预期可避免受到伤害，若上涨则是意外之喜。 曾文凯认为，做投资应该在自己的能力范围内做，尽 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the remarkable performance of the non-ferrous metal sector in 2025, with significant stock price increases, particularly in companies like Srei New Materials, which saw a 340.01% rise, and several others exceeding 150% [1][2] - A historical analysis indicates that the non-ferrous metal industry has never topped the annual performance rankings since 2000, achieving second place twice but failing to maintain consecutive years in the top five [1][4] - The upcoming 2026 year poses a critical question: whether the non-ferrous metal sector will follow historical patterns of correction or break the "consecutive champion" curse, which has never been achieved [1][5] Group 2 - The 2025 non-ferrous metal market is characterized by a comprehensive boom across precious and industrial metals, driven by factors such as central bank gold purchases, weakened dollar credit systems, and geopolitical risks [2][7] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have seen substantial price increases, with gold rising by 227.71% for companies like Zhaojin Gold, while silver prices have surged over 100% due to supply-demand dynamics [2][3][7] - Industrial metals are experiencing increased demand driven by sectors like new energy vehicles and renewable energy investments, indicating a long-term growth narrative for metals like copper and aluminum [2][3] Group 3 - Data shows that energy metals like cobalt and lithium, along with precious metals, have performed well, while others like zinc and magnesium have lagged behind [3] - The historical volatility of the non-ferrous metal sector is noted, with past performance cycles showing significant fluctuations and a tendency to follow commodity supercycles [4][5] - The high valuation levels of the non-ferrous metal sector present challenges for continued growth into 2026, with the sector index reaching 7499.07 points, a 73.67% increase for the year, yet still 17% below its historical peak [5][6] Group 4 - The divergence between stock price increases and declining company earnings raises concerns about speculative investments, as seen in companies like Tianli Composite and Zhongzhou Special Materials, which reported significant revenue and profit declines despite high stock performance [6] - The outlook for 2026 hinges on the balance of metal prices and demand, with various institutions outlining clear driving logic for different sub-sectors, such as gold's reliance on credit and risk aversion, and copper's supply constraints [6][7]

服务行业：1）商务部发言人何亚东4日在商务部例行新闻发布会上表示，岁末年初是传统的消费旺季，商务部将 坚持惠民生和促消费紧密结合，扩大优质商品和服务供给，创新消费场景，更好地满足人民美好生活需要。何亚 东介绍，商务部将加快推进消费新业态、新模式、新场景试点和国际化消费环境建设工作，打造更加舒适便捷的 消费环境。2）12月2日，《外卖平台服务管理基本要求》国家标准发布实施。针对社会广泛关注的外卖平台非理性 竞争，标准提出外卖平台开展价格促销时不能扰乱市场价格认知与正常秩序。标准除直接限制非理性竞争行为外， 还通过提高外卖餐品质量、在算法中为配送员"降速"以及加强消费者权益保护等多个方面形成系统性合力，促进 外卖行业市场竞争回归理性。 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 宏观日报 | 2025-12-05 上游：1）有色：铜价格回升较多。2）能源：液化天然气价格下行。3）化工：尿素价格回落。 关注下游年末促销进展 中观事件总览 生产行业：中国自主研发CPU发布。 1）4日下午，商务部新闻发言人就开展稀土相关物项出口管制进行了回应。 商务部新闻发言人何亚东：中国政府依法依规开展稀土相关物项的出口管制工作 ...

Group 1: Domestic Macro Economic Analysis - The domestic macroeconomic outlook for 2026 is expected to start smoothly, with significant achievements in high-quality development. The economic growth target is anticipated to remain around 5% [3] - The fiscal policy is likely to maintain a proactive tone, with a projected government budget deficit rate of 4% and new special bond issuance of 4.4-5 trillion yuan [4] - Monetary policy is expected to continue a supportive stance, with potential for 1-2 reserve requirement ratio cuts and 1-2 interest rate cuts of 10-20 basis points [4] Group 2: International Macro Economic Analysis - The U.S. economy is projected to stabilize in 2026, supported by a resumption of fiscal expansion, with the deficit rate expected to return to 6.5% [5] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower interest rates 2-3 times in 2026, despite inflation remaining sticky [5] Group 3: Market Outlook - The A-share market is viewed positively, with macro factors such as market valuation, fundamental recovery, and supportive policies likely to strengthen A-shares [6] - The growth style is currently overvalued, but opportunities remain in the technology manufacturing sector driven by the AI wave [6] - Focus on high-prosperity sectors such as the technology industry and materials with improved supply-demand dynamics is recommended [6] Group 4: Bond Market and Commodity Outlook - The bond market is expected to have limited overall odds, with yields likely to remain in a low volatility range [8] - Commodities like copper and gold are anticipated to rise, supported by resilient U.S. demand and domestic policy measures [8]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a slight upward trend, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.67% to close at 26,033.26 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 0.82% to 5,644.76 points [1] - Major technology stocks mostly rose, with Alibaba up 2.24%, Tencent up 1.31%, and JD Group up 0.52%. However, Xiaomi fell by 1.76% and Meituan dropped by 2.88% [1] - The metals sector saw significant gains, with China Nonferrous Mining rising over 13% [1] - Cryptocurrency-related stocks generally declined, with New Fire Technology Holdings down over 9% [1] Company News - Meituan reported Q3 revenue of 95.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%, but its core local business operating profit turned negative, resulting in a loss of 14.1 billion yuan [2] - China Gas reported revenue of 34.481 billion HKD and a profit of 1.334 billion HKD for the six months ending September 30, 2025 [3] - Yingtong Holdings reported a revenue of 1.028 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 3.42%, but net profit increased by 15.4% to 133 million RMB [3] - Jihai Resources reported a revenue of 450 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 23.41%, with a net profit of 88.127 million RMB, up 2.98% [3] - Yuhua Education reported annual revenue of 2.497 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, and a net profit of 930 million RMB, up 133.2% [3] - Huitai Textile reported mid-term revenue of 2.524 billion HKD, a year-on-year decrease of 6.72%, and a net profit of 79.322 million HKD, down 25.77% [3] - Huaxin Handbag International reported revenue of 432 million HKD, a year-on-year increase of 22.55%, and a profit of 48.262 million HKD, up 78.88% [4] Institutional Insights - GF Securities noted that the foundation for a bull market in Hong Kong stocks remains intact, but the evolution may present a "volatile upward, gradually rising" characteristic rather than a rapid increase [12] - Dongwu Securities indicated that short-term risk factors in Hong Kong stocks are decreasing, but a catalyst is needed for confirmation of a rebound [12] - Everbright Securities suggested that compared to previous bull markets, there is still significant room for index growth, but the duration of the bull market may be more important than the magnitude of the increase [12] - CICC highlighted that dividends have become a preferred choice in the current market environment, with the banking sector rebounding nearly 10% since the end of September [13]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened up by 0.25%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.43%, with notable gains in tech stocks and the non-ferrous metals sector [1] - Capital market policies have significantly increased in intensity over the past two years, focusing on supporting technological development and optimizing resource allocation [1] - The current technological breakthroughs, represented by innovations such as large models, robotics, smart vehicles, and quantum computing, are driven by top-level policy design that enhances the innovation ecosystem [1] Group 2 - In 2024, China has achieved milestone breakthroughs in several key technology fields, with Huawei's Ascend chips nearing international leading performance and domestic humanoid robots breaking overseas monopolies [2] - The smart vehicle industry chain has demonstrated strong competitiveness in the global market, with companies like iFlytek surpassing international counterparts in core capabilities of large models [2] - This "pressure-response-breakthrough" innovation paradigm is reshaping the global technology competition landscape, with China transitioning from a technology follower to a partial leader in certain areas [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Galaxy Securities indicates that the non-ferrous metal industry is expected to stabilize after hitting a bottom in 2024, with a new upward cycle anticipated due to various macroeconomic factors and policy changes [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The non-ferrous metal prices and industry performance are projected to improve continuously, establishing a new upward cycle in the industry [1] - The anticipated recovery in macro expectations following the Geneva Agreement between China and the U.S. in 2025 is expected to further support this upward trend [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Continued interest in gold is expected as the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, leading to increased allocations in gold by global central banks and investors, which will support mid-term gold price increases [1] - A shortage of copper mines is expected to persist, with improved macro expectations and liquidity from the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, alongside new demand from large-scale AI data center constructions, likely driving copper prices higher [1] - The implementation of export quota policies in the Democratic Republic of Congo is anticipated to restrict global cobalt supply, leading to a significant increase in cobalt prices as domestic inventories are depleted [1] - Tightened domestic policies affecting supply and exports are expected to change the industry landscape, with steady demand growth leading to a stabilization and recovery in rare earth prices, significantly improving corporate profitability in the rare earth permanent magnet sector [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The Grasberg copper mine has announced a resumption plan, with expectations for mid-term copper smelting fees to have upward potential [2] - The global second-largest copper mine, Grasberg, is expected to resume large-scale production by Q2 2026, maintaining a copper output of 1 billion pounds (approximately 454,000 tons) in 2026, with an average annual output potentially reaching 1.6 billion pounds (approximately 726,000 tons) from 2027 to 2029 [7] - The resumption of multiple copper mines is anticipated to alleviate supply tensions, with the Cobre Panamá mine also expected to restart production, contributing an additional 300,000 to 350,000 tons of copper metal annually [7] - The growth rate of copper smelting output from 2026 to 2027 is expected to be lower than that of copper supply, indicating potential marginal improvement in smelting fees [7] - Investment opportunities are suggested in major copper smelting companies like Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630, Buy) and Zijin Mining (601899, Buy), with other notable mentions including Jiangxi Copper (600362, Not Rated) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993, Not Rated) [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report focuses on the non-ferrous and steel industries, highlighting the dynamics and trends affecting these sectors [1] Copper Mining Sector - Grasberg's production is expected to stabilize and grow, contributing to a projected copper production growth rate of approximately 3.3% in 2026 [7] - The reopening of Cobre Panamá is also a significant factor in easing supply constraints [7] Copper Smelting Sector - The anticipated growth in copper smelting output is expected to lag behind the supply side, suggesting a favorable outlook for smelting fees [7] - Investment recommendations are made for companies with strong resource bases and production expansion potential [7]

Company Overview - Zhongfu Industrial (SH 600595) announced on November 19 that its 11th Board of Directors' 9th meeting was held via telecommunication, where the proposal for the election of independent directors was reviewed [1] - As of the report date, Zhongfu Industrial has a market capitalization of 26.5 billion yuan [1] Revenue Composition - For the first half of 2025, Zhongfu Industrial's revenue composition is as follows: Non-ferrous industry accounts for 94.76%, electricity for 9.96%, coal for 2.71%, and other businesses for 0.47%, with a negative offset of 7.9% [1]