Workflow
油脂油料
icon
Search documents
油油油油2025、10、28
Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating to the palm oil industry [3] Core Viewpoints - If Indonesia's palm oil production increases by 10% this year, the final output will reach a record high of 58 million tons. The production growth rate has gradually slowed since 2018 when Indonesia banned the development of new land for oil palm cultivation, with only 2019 seeing a growth rate of 9.37%. Whether Indonesia can achieve a 10% annual increase remains to be seen [3] - Even though the market expects the production to enter a decline cycle in November, there are still concerns about export demand. There were only rumors of a small amount of palm oil transactions last week ahead of India's Diwali in late October. Argentine sunflower oil is cheaper than that from the Black Sea, and there are also reports of domestic soybean oil exports to India. November may be a turning point for the oil market, depending on whether the US government will announce the compliance obligation volume for 2026. After the decline in oil prices, the market is waiting for demand to pick up and stabilize, and also needs confidence in biodiesel demand from Indonesia and the US. Additionally, it is necessary to pay attention to whether there will be any unexpected situations in weather and supply in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. The report suggests focusing on the fulfillment of the MPOB October report next month [3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. International Oilseed Prices - As of October 24, 2025, the weekly prices of Australian and Canadian rapeseeds declined. Australian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage. European sunflower seeds had the largest single - week increase, and Ukrainian sunflower seeds also saw an upward adjustment. The increase in international soybean prices was relatively small [5] 2. International Oil Prices - As of October 27, 2025, most weekly oil prices declined. South American soybean oil dropped by over $20 per ton, while European sunflower oil prices rose [9] 3. International Oil FOB Spreads - The spread between Malaysian and Indonesian refined palm oil was $0 per ton this week, compared to $15 per ton last week and a historical average of $8 per ton - The spread between Argentine soybean oil and Indonesian crude palm oil was -$29 per ton, compared to -$9 per ton last week and a historical average of $148 per ton [21] 4. International Rapeseed Spreads - As of October 24, with the progress of the Australian rapeseed harvest, the spread between Australian and Canadian rapeseeds began to narrow, while the spreads between German, Ukrainian, and Canadian rapeseeds remained at a high level [23] 5. Indian Port Oil Spreads - As of October 24, the spread between Indian port soybean oil and palm oil was $40 per ton, down from $50 per ton last week - The spread between sunflower oil and palm oil was $210 per ton, up from $190 per ton last week - The spread between refined soybean oil and refined palm oil was -$6 per ton, down from $0 per ton last week [30] 6. Import and Crushing Profits - Last week, three November - shipment palm oil vessels were traded in the domestic market - Domestic oil mills exported 10,000 - 20,000 tons of soybean oil to India for January shipment [38] 7. Biodiesel - The weekly price of US soybean oil weakened, and the processing and blending profits continued to improve - After the rebound of RME, the weekly RME processing profit improved [132][139] 8. Demand Side Weekly Oil Transactions - Weekly spot oil transactions were sluggish [146] Oil Spot Basis - Different from the weak basis of palm oil and soybean oil, the basis of rapeseed oil was relatively strong [151] Oil Inventory - The report provides monthly balance sheets for palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil, including data on initial inventory, imports, total supply, demand, ending inventory, inventory changes, inventory - to - consumption ratios, and surplus amounts [177]
养殖油脂产业链日报策略报告-20251031
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: On Thursday, soybean oil showed a strong performance. Although Sino - US economic and trade negotiations are optimistic, the commercial import profit of US soybeans is negative, and the cost increase supports domestic soybean prices. With ample domestic soybean oil supply and the over - hanging shadow of palm oil production increase, soybean oil will mainly bottom - out and adjust in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being. The support level of the main soybean oil contract is 8050 - 8080 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 8350 - 8400 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: On Thursday, the main rapeseed oil contract continued to be weak. The fundamentals have no significant changes, and the rapeseed sector is still affected by macro - economic and trade policies. The Sino - US summit released positive signals, which is negative for supply - side production. The expected meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders strengthens the expectation of relaxed rapeseed imports, pressuring rapeseed oil sentiment. The current rapeseed oil inventory is at a relatively high historical level, but the new supply is tightening, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. If there is no substantial relaxation of Canadian rapeseed import policies, the rapeseed sector is still optimistic in the medium - to - long term under the expectation of inventory reduction. For the main rapeseed oil contract, short positions should be reduced on dips. The support level of the OI main contract is 9350 - 9380, and the pressure level is 9900 - 9930 [3]. - **Palm Oil**: On Thursday, palm oil prices opened low and closed high, showing an overall weak trend. The over - expected production increase in Indonesia may offset the increase in biodiesel consumption, and the decline in international crude oil prices also weakens palm oil. As palm oil will enter the production - reduction season in November, the downward space is expected to be limited. In the short term, palm oil may bottom - out and fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The support level of the main palm oil contract is 8750 - 8780, and the pressure level is 9300 - 9350 [4]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 2**: On Thursday, soybean meal prices were firm. The Sino - US economic and trade negotiations are optimistic, and the export signal of US soybeans is positive, driving up CBOT soybeans. The export potential of South American soybeans is declining, and the cost end supports the price of soybean No. 2. The import cost of soybeans increases, and the oil mill's profit margin narrows. Soybean meal is expected to remain firm, and it is recommended to go long lightly in the short term. The support level of the main soybean meal contract is 2900 - 2930 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 3050 - 3100 yuan/ton. The support level of the main soybean No. 2 contract is 3600 - 3650 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 3750 - 3810 yuan/ton [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: On Thursday, rapeseed meal prices rebounded slightly after the opening. The fundamentals have no significant changes, and it is slightly boosted by the rebound of soybean meal. The market is worried about the relaxation of Canadian rapeseed import policies. The current supply and demand of rapeseed meal are both weak, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. However, the demand in the fourth quarter is seasonally weak. Rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The support level of the RM main contract is 2280 - 2300, and the pressure level is 2450 - 2480 [4][5]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: On Thursday, the prices continued to fluctuate weakly. The Sino - US trade negotiation results are in line with expectations, and the pressure of concentrated listing continues to suppress the market. In the domestic market, the new - season harvest is coming to an end, and the selling pressure is gradually releasing, while the downstream support is insufficient. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously or consider the reverse spread opportunity of the corn 1 - 5 spread. For the corn 01 contract, the support range is 2000 - 2020, and the pressure range is 2180 - 2200. For the corn starch 01 contract, the support range is 2350 - 2360, and the pressure range is 2500 - 2520. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [5]. - **Soybean No. 1**: On Thursday, the price of soybean No. 1 stagnated and adjusted. The price of new - season soybeans in the Northeast market has risen steadily, but the purchasing enthusiasm of grain trading enterprises is low. The supply of Northeast soybeans is increasing, but there is a sentiment of reluctance to sell at the grass - roots level. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm has cooled slightly, and it is recommended to exit long positions. The pressure level of the soybean No. 1 01 contract is 4150 - 4200 yuan/ton, and the support level is 4000 - 4030 yuan/ton [6]. - **Peanuts**: On Thursday, the peanut futures price continued to oscillate weakly at the bottom. The market lacks positive themes. The new - season peanut planting area in 2025 increased by 4.01% year - on - year, but the yield in some areas of Henan may decline due to weather. With the increase in the listing volume of new - season peanuts, there is still pressure on spot and futures prices. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly. The support level of the 01 contract is 7900 - 7550, and the pressure level is 8020 - 8160 [6]. - **Pigs**: On Thursday, the futures price of pigs decreased with increasing positions. The market is still worried about the risk of pig hoarding. The spot price stopped falling this week, and the basis difference between the 2511 contract and the spot price is gradually narrowing. It is recommended to switch to a wait - and - see attitude. The reference range of the 01 contract is 11800 - 12000, and the pressure range is 12500 - 12800 [7][8]. - **Eggs**: On Thursday, the futures price of eggs rose first and then fell. The spot price stopped rising and adjusted after a continuous rebound. The overall consumption is gradually entering a seasonal peak season, and the egg production capacity is gradually being reduced. It is recommended to go long at low prices. The reference range of the 12 contract is 2900 - 3100, and the pressure range is 3300 - 3350 [8] 3. Summary According to the Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations a. Market Analysis - **Oilseeds**: Soybean No. 1 01 is expected to bottom out and stabilize, and it is recommended to exit long positions; soybean No. 2 01 is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to wait and see; peanut 11 is expected to oscillate and adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Oils**: Soybean oil 01 is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to go short lightly; rapeseed oil 01 is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to reduce short positions; palm 01 is expected to bottom out, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Protein**: Soybean meal 01 is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to wait and see; rapeseed meal 01 is expected to oscillate and adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn 01 is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to hold short positions; starch 01 is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to hold short positions [11]. - **Livestock Farming**: Pig 01 is expected to find the bottom through oscillation, and it is recommended to switch to a wait - and - see attitude; egg 12 is expected to find the bottom through oscillation, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [11]. b. Commodity Arbitrage - **Cross - month Arbitrage**: For most varieties, the reference strategy is to wait and see, while for some, such as corn 5 - 1, it is recommended to go long at low prices, and for pig 1 - 3, it is recommended to do positive arbitrage at low prices [13]. - **Cross - variety Arbitrage**: Different cross - variety combinations have different reference strategies, including short - term operations, long - term operations, and waiting and seeing [13]. c. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors, including oilseeds, oils, protein, energy and by - products, and livestock farming [14]. Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table a. Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: The report provides the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipment periods, including arrival premiums, futures prices, CNF prices, and arrival - duty - paid prices [15][16]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operating rates of various oils and oilseeds, such as soybeans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [17]. b. Feed - **Daily Data**: The import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months are provided [17]. - **Weekly Data**: The weekly data of corn and corn starch, including consumption, inventory, operating rate, etc., are presented [18]. c. Livestock Farming - The daily and weekly data of pigs and eggs are provided, including spot prices, production and sales data, inventory data, and profit data [19][20][21][22]. Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock Farming End (Pigs, Eggs)**: Multiple charts show the price trends, inventory, and trading volume of pigs and eggs [23][27][29][30] - **Oils and Oilseeds**: Charts cover the production, inventory, trading volume, and price spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts [32][40][49] - **Feed End**: Charts display the price trends, inventory, operating rate, and profit of corn, corn starch, rapeseed meal, and soybean meal [55][63][68][80] Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils - Charts show the historical volatility, trading volume, and open interest of options for various varieties [89][91] Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils - Charts present the warehouse receipt quantities of various varieties, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs [97][100][105]
葵花籽油(一)种植分布与食用油性状
Guang Jin Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 23:57
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Global vegetable oils: Sunflower oil is the fourth-largest vegetable oil globally, with its total production approaching that of rapeseed oil. Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange plans to steadily advance the research and registration of sunflower oil futures [4]. - Supply and demand in China: In China, the supply of sunflower oil raw materials comes from both domestic cultivation and imports, and the supply of refined oil is about half domestic production and half imports. The consumption of sunflower oil is significantly lower than that of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and peanut oil, but higher than that of linseed oil, olive oil, and camellia oil. Its pricing needs to consider both domestic and international factors [4]. - Substitution potential: Refined sunflower oil and refined peanut oil have similar fatty acid ratios and smoke points, and may have a strong substitution relationship in the Chinese catering industry. If global sunflower seed cultivation increases, it may reduce the overall cost of China's catering cooking oil [4]. - Production and consumption: Domestic oil - pressing enterprises have mature processes and market experience in sunflower oil production, and some well - known brands have been accepted by consumers. The delivery standards of sunflower oil are expected to be widely accepted by producers and the catering industry [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Oil - used Sunflower: An Annual Herbaceous Oil Crop in Mid - Latitude Regions, Neighbor to Spring Rapeseed - Global status: Sunflower oil is the fourth - largest vegetable oil globally. Oil - used sunflower (oil - used sunflower) is one of China's five major oil crops. It is rich in linoleic acid and is known as the "healthy and nutritious oil" of the 21st century [21]. - Cultivation in China: In China, oil - used sunflower is mainly planted in northern provinces. It is usually sown in spring when the soil temperature at 10 cm depth is above 10°C, and harvested from August to September. It has stronger adaptability to soil pH than rapeseed, and mechanical harvesting can be considered in large - scale farms [21]. - Comparison with rapeseed: Oil - used sunflower and rapeseed are comparable in terms of oil - producing potential, but they have significant differences in crop morphology, growth laws, and cultivation requirements. Factors such as soil alkalinity, the need for large - scale mechanization, and local high - yield demonstration fields should be considered when choosing between them [25][26]. 3.2 Can Sunflower Oil Rich in Linoleic Acid Omega - 6 Integrate into Chinese Cuisine? - Consumption form: In China, sunflower oil is mainly for edible consumption, and it is unlikely to be used as a raw material for biodiesel under current policies. The retail and wholesale prices of sunflower oil are usually lower than those of peanut oil and higher than those of genetically modified soybean oil [28][30]. - Fatty acid composition: Sunflower oil and peanut oil are similar in fatty acid distribution, both being rich in linoleic acid. They may have a strong substitution relationship in Chinese cuisine, although the current annual consumption of sunflower oil in China is less than 5 million tons [30][35]. - Smoke point: The smoke point of sunflower oil is generally defined as the lowest temperature at which it produces continuous blue smoke when heated without ventilation. Refined sunflower oil can reach a smoke point of over 190°C, meeting the requirements of most Chinese restaurants. If sunflower oil futures are launched, the delivery standard is likely to be "national standard grade 3", which can be refined to "national standard grade 1" to meet catering needs [36][40][43]. 3.3 Import of Sunflower Oil: A Reference for the "Full Customs Process" - Sunflower oil import process: The import of sunflower oil requires overseas production enterprise registration, importer and exporter filing, and compliance with customs declaration document requirements. Customs conducts qualified assessment upon arrival, and there are specific storage and transportation requirements for bulk sunflower oil [49][50][51]. - Sunflower seed import: Sunflower seeds are a long - term trade surplus product in China. The import volume shows an upward trend. They are classified as "oilseeds" by customs and need to obtain the "Entry Animal and Plant Quarantine Permit" [56]. - Current market products: There are many well - known domestic sunflower oil brands, each with its own characteristics, such as market share, quality, and health - related features [58].
油脂油料产业日报-20251029
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 11:47
Report Information - Report Title: "Oils and Fats and Oilseeds Industry Daily Report" [1] - Report Date: October 29, 2025 [1] - Author: Xu Liang [2] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views Oils Palm Oil - International Market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures have been on a continuous downward trend. Due to concerns about increased production and slower exports, the futures price has broken below the annual - line support of 4,350 ringgit. There is still pressure for an inertial decline, and it may fall further under the potential negative impact of rising month - end inventories. It is expected to test the support around 4,200 ringgit. After the release of the MPOB supply - demand report next month and with the support of the production slowdown season starting in November, Malaysian palm oil may gradually stop falling, stabilize, and rebound [3]. - Domestic Market: Dalian palm oil futures have been dragged down by the Malaysian palm oil trend and have fallen significantly. After breaking below the annual - line support, there is pressure for further weakness. It may stop falling or stage a short - term oversold rebound around 8,800 yuan; otherwise, it may fall to 8,600 yuan. Given the increasing port inventories, the decline of Malaysian palm oil, and weakening demand due to lower temperatures, a short - term bearish view is maintained. Attention should be paid to whether it can follow the Malaysian palm oil trend and stop falling and stabilize in the first and middle of next month [3]. Soybean Oil - Currently, the domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient while demand is weak, presenting a bearish fundamental situation. CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil may continue to fall, dragging down Dalian soybean oil. The market is closely watching the Sino - US trade negotiations. If the negotiation results lead to a breakthrough rise in CBOT soybeans, Dalian soybean oil may quickly rebound; otherwise, if CBOT soybeans fall again, the January contract of Dalian soybean oil may break below the integer - level support [3]. Oilseeds Soybean Meal - News of COFCO's purchase of 180,000 tons of US soybeans this week has led to a mixed sentiment among the long and short sides. The market is trading cautiously, waiting for the final result and specific details of the Sino - US trade agreement. The short - term main contract of Dalian soybean meal may consolidate in the range of 2,950 - 2,980 yuan. In the spot market, most of the oil mills' fixed - price offers remain stable, with some decreasing by 10 yuan/ton, and the near - month basis remains stable. The pattern of weak oils and strong meals continues, and the improvement of oil mills' crushing profits is limited. The small - scale arrival of Argentine soybean meal has little impact on the market. The rebound of pig prices has stimulated some breeding enterprises to enter the secondary fattening market. Feed mills are generally waiting due to safety inventories, and traders have limited motivation to chase the rising prices due to a small number of low - price contracts. Both are waiting for the clarity of the Sino - US negotiations [14]. Data Summary Oils Oils' Inter - monthly and Inter - variety Spreads - P 1 - 5: - 22 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan; Y - P 01: - 776 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; etc. [4] Palm Oil Spot and Futures Daily Prices - Palm oil 01: 8,842 yuan/ton, down 1.29%; BMD palm oil main contract: 4,245 ringgit/ton, down 1.67%; etc. [5] Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Daily Prices - Soybean oil 01: 8,132 yuan/ton, down 0.2%; CBOT soybean oil main contract: 50.16 cents/pound, down 1.01%; etc. [11] Oilseeds Oilseeds Futures Prices - Soybean meal 01: 2,969 yuan, down 6 yuan, down 0.2%; CBOT yellow soybeans: 1,093.5, unchanged; etc. [15] Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - M01 - 05: 180 yuan, up 39 yuan; RM01 - 05: 58 yuan, up 46 yuan; etc. [16]
油脂油料产业日报-20251027
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 10:54
Report Information - Report Date: October 27, 2025 [1] - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Core Views Palm Oil - **International Market**: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are trending weakly due to increased production and slower exports. There is pressure to test the annual line support at 4,350 ringgit. After effective correction and risk release, there is a chance for the futures to stabilize and strengthen, supported by decreased production and inventory and the hype of Indonesia's B50 policy [3]. - **Domestic Market**: Dalian palm oil futures are in a volatile adjustment. There is pressure to test the 9,000 yuan mark for support, with strong support at the annual line of 8,900 yuan. After correction and stabilization, it may follow the trend of Malaysian palm oil. The view of near - term weakness and long - term strength is maintained [3]. Soybean Oil - The short - term trend of CBOT soybeans and soybean oil is strong, so there is a possibility of an increase in Dalian soybean oil. However, due to sufficient domestic supply, weak demand, and the relative weakness of palm oil, the increase is expected to be limited. The 1 - month contract may face resistance at 8,250 yuan on the daily middle - rail, and if it breaks through, it may rise to 8,430 yuan on the upper - rail. If the Sino - US agreement cannot be reached on the 30th, the 1 - month contract will decline due to the bearish domestic fundamentals [4]. Oilseeds - Dalian soybean meal futures are in a narrow range between 2,900 - 2,950 yuan. The market is waiting for the result of Sino - US trade negotiations. The overall market sentiment is still cautious, with a strong wait - and - see atmosphere [17]. Price Information Oil Price Spreads - Various price spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and other oils are provided, including P 1 - 5, Y - P 01, etc. For example, P 1 - 5 is 18 yuan/ton with a daily change of - 6 yuan/ton [5]. Palm Oil Spot and Futures Prices - Palm oil futures prices such as palm oil 01 are 9,100 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.24%. BMD palm oil futures are at 4,399 ringgit/ton with a decline of 0.52%. Spot prices and basis are also provided [7][8]. Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Prices - Soybean oil 01 futures are at 8,234 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.03%. CBOT soybean oil futures are at 50.29 cents/pound with a decline of 1.12%. Spot prices and basis are also provided [14]. Oilseed Futures Prices - Futures prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are provided. For example, soybean meal 01 is at 2,932 yuan with a decline of 1 yuan and a decline rate of 0.03% [18]. Oilseed Price Spreads - Price spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, such as M01 - 05 and RM01 - 05, are provided. For example, M01 - 05 is 141 yuan with a daily change of - 24 yuan [19].
油脂周报(P、Y、OI)-20251027
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 06:53
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach, and the industry is currently in a low - volatility oscillation phase with no clear unilateral trend in the short - term [5]. Core View of the Report - The supply situation shows that palm oil is neutral to bearish, soybean oil is bearish, and rapeseed oil is bullish; demand is in a wait - and - see state; inventory has marginal bullish factors; macro and policy aspects are also in a wait - and - see state. Overall, the investment view is to wait and see, and it is recommended to wait or participate through buying options [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia has high inventory at the origin and low domestic purchases; soybean oil mill crushing volume increases; rapeseed oil crushing and imports both decrease [5]. - **Demand**: In the origin, Indonesia's B50 is being actively promoted but has bearish disturbances; the US bio - diesel RVO is undetermined; the domestic peak season is lackluster with lower oil trading volume compared to the same period [5]. - **Inventory**: The total domestic oil inventory is decreasing. Palm oil inventory fluctuates slightly under weak supply and demand. There is an expectation of inventory reduction for soybean oil in the fourth quarter, and rapeseed oil inventory is continuously decreasing due to raw material shortages [5]. - **Macro and Policy**: The meeting between Chinese and US leaders may bring new directions; Indonesia's B50 is in the road test phase and is expected to be implemented in the second half of next year but faces obstacles; the US bio - diesel RVO is uncertain; there is an expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations, which is bearish for rapeseed oil [5]. - **Investment View**: Currently, the oil market is in a low - volatility oscillation phase. There is no clear unilateral trend for now, but factors such as the Malaysian production reduction season, origin bio - diesel policies, and international trade policies may bring new drivers. It is recommended to wait and see or participate through buying options [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see; Arbitrage: Go long on far - month oil and short on meal; Risk Focus: Crude oil fluctuations, policy disturbances; Options: Buy volatility of palm oil and soybean oil (collar options) [5]. PART TWO: Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of major oil contracts and the trends of the agricultural product index, as well as price differences such as P1 - 5, Y1 - 5, OI1 - 5, and spot price differences between domestic soybean oil and palm oil [7][9][14]. PART THREE: Oil Supply and Demand Fundamentals - **Southeast Asia Weather**: It shows precipitation and temperature data including past 14 - day precipitation, precipitation anomalies, and future 7 - 14 - day precipitation and temperature forecasts in Southeast Asia [17][19][22]. - **Indonesia's Monthly Supply and Demand**: Data on Indonesia's palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory from 2021 - 2025 are provided [31][35]. - **Malaysia's Monthly Supply and Demand**: Data on Malaysia's palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory from 2021 - 2025 are presented [36][42]. - **India's Monthly Imports and International Bean - Palm Price Difference**: Information on India's imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, as well as the price difference between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil from 2021 - 2025 is given [43][47]. - **Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply and Demand**: Data on China's palm oil import cumulative value, daily trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost price, import hedging profit, and monthly import volume from 2021 - 2025 are shown [49][53]. - **Weather and US Soybean Production Situation**: It includes future 15 - day temperature and precipitation distributions in Brazilian and US soybean - producing areas, US soybean good - to - excellent rate, and harvest progress [61][63][68]. - **US and Brazilian Export Situations**: Data on US soybean cumulative export sales volume, export volume to China, and Brazilian soybean monthly export volume from 2021 - 2026 are provided [74][79]. - **China's Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation**: Information on China's soybean weekly arrival volume, domestic soybean oil production by pressing plants, daily trading volume, and weekly inventory from 2021 - 2025 is presented [89]. - **Rapeseed - Related Situations**: It includes future 15 - day precipitation and temperature distributions in Canadian and European rapeseed - producing areas, soil moisture in Canada, rapeseed FOB prices, Canadian rapeseed weekly export volume, Canadian rapeseed import hedging profit, domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil expected arrival volume, Chinese rapeseed weekly pressing volume, rapeseed oil production by oil mills, rapeseed oil pick - up volume, and weekly inventory from 2021 - 2025 [90][99][104].
油脂油料产业日报-20251024
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 10:38
Report Core Views Palm Oil - International Market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures trended weakly due to concerns about potential export growth slowdown and significant production increase. The price may test the support of the 60 - day moving average at 4400 ringgit. With a bearish fundamental outlook and expected substantial month - end inventory growth, there's a risk of breaking below the 60 - day moving average. However, as production enters the decline season in November and the market speculates on Indonesia's B50 policy, the price may stabilize and recover [3]. - Domestic Market: Dalian palm oil futures maintained a weak and volatile trend, dragged down by rising port inventories and the decline of Malaysian palm oil. The price may seek support at the 9000 - yuan mark, with strong support at the annual line of 8900 yuan. After this round of adjustment, it may slowly recover following Malaysian palm oil. The view is that the near - term contracts are weaker than the far - term ones, and attention should be paid to whether it can stop falling in the 8900 - 9000 yuan range [3]. Soybean Oil - The market is currently focused on the results of the China - US negotiations. Domestically, demand is weak, and traders are reluctant to purchase due to concerns about price drops. Although soybean import costs support the market, there are also bearish factors. In the short term, the Dalian soybean oil January contract will fluctuate around 8200 yuan. If CBOT soybeans and soybean oil rise again, it may increase slightly; otherwise, it may fall to 8000 - 8100 yuan [4]. Bean Meal - Spot prices of bean meal increased by 20 - 40 yuan/ton, and near - month basis decreased by 10 - 20 yuan. Some oil mills in North and South China suspended production due to delayed soybean arrivals, and cost inversion boosted the price - holding attitude. However, due to the unclear outcome of China - US trade negotiations, feed enterprises are digesting existing inventories, and traders' enthusiasm for chasing prices is limited [17]. Price Information Oil Price | Variety | Unit | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 24 | - 2 | | P 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | 220 | 8 | | P 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 244 | - 6 | | Y 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 166 | - 4 | | Y 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | 92 | - 6 | | Y 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 258 | 10 | | OI 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 389 | 3 | | OI 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | 71 | 13 | | OI 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 460 | - 16 | | Y - P 01 | yuan/ton | - 944 | - 18 | | Y - P 05 | yuan/ton | - 1086 | - 16 | | Y - P 09 | yuan/ton | - 958 | - 2 | | Y/M 01 | / | 2.7869 | - 2.4% | | Y/M 05 | / | 2.896 | - 1.54% | | Y/M 09 | / | 2.7487 | - 1.33% | | OI/RM 01 | / | 4.1714 | - 2.14% | | OI/RM 05 | / | 4.0519 | - 1.4% | | OI/RM 09 | / | 3.8529 | - 1.93% | [5] Palm Oil Spot and Futures Price | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Change Rate (Spread) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil 01 | yuan/ton | 9122 | - 0.11% | | Palm Oil 05 | yuan/ton | 9104 | - 0.04% | | Palm Oil 09 | yuan/ton | 8858 | - 0.34% | | BMD Palm Oil Main Contract | ringgit/ton | 4442 | - 0.65% | | 24 - degree Palm Oil in Guangzhou | yuan/ton | 9050 | 50 | | 24 - degree Basis in Guangzhou | yuan/ton | - 132 | - 108 | | POGO | US dollars/ton | 461.996 | - 1.168 | | International Soybean - Palm Oil | US dollars/ton | - 3.86 | - 5 | [8] Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Price | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Change Rate (Spread) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Oil 01 | yuan/ton | 8194 | - 0.17% | | Soybean Oil 05 | yuan/ton | 8016 | - 0.07% | | Soybean Oil 09 | yuan/ton | 7906 | - 0.17% | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main Contract | cents/pound | 50.86 | 1.68% | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Spot | yuan/ton | 8350 | 0 | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Basis | yuan/ton | 162 | - 20 | | BOHO (Weekly) | US dollars/barrel | 46.382 | - 11.2948 | | Domestic First - grade Soybean Oil - 24 - degree Palm Oil | yuan/ton | - 500 | 110 | [14] Oilseed Futures Price | Variety | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Bean Meal 01 | 2933 | - 5 | - 0.17% | | Bean Meal 05 | 2768 | - 2 | - 0.07% | | Bean Meal 09 | 2880 | - 5 | - 0.17% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2325 | - 14 | - 0.6% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2300 | - 12 | - 0.52% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2401 | - 12 | - 0.5% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1061.25 | 0 | 0% | | Offshore RMB | 7.125 | - 0.0019 | - 0.03% | [18] Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spread | Spread | Price | Today's Change | Spread | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 168 | 26 | RM01 - 05 | 27 | 19 | | M05 - 09 | - 115 | 3 | RM05 - 09 | - 101 | - 10 | | M09 - 01 | - 53 | - 29 | RM09 - 01 | 74 | - 9 | | Bean Meal Rizhao Spot | 3020 | 40 | Bean Meal Rizhao Basis | 42 | - 33 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2450 | 0 | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | 111 | - 32 | | Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 530 | 20 | Bean and Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 599 | 21 | [19][21]
京粮控股:10月24日召开董事会会议
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-10-24 09:13
Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Jingliang Holdings announced the convening of its 24th meeting of the 10th Board of Directors on October 24, 2025, to review the proposal for the third quarter report of 2025 [1] - For the first half of 2025, the revenue composition of Jingliang Holdings is as follows: oil and fat accounted for 91.34%, food manufacturing accounted for 8.45%, and other businesses accounted for 0.21% [1] - As of the time of reporting, the market capitalization of Jingliang Holdings is 4.9 billion yuan [1]
养殖油脂产业链日报策略报告-20251024
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The main 01 contract of soybean oil continued to adjust weakly on Thursday. The increase in Malaysian palm oil production data led to a decline in the overall oil and fat market. China's soybean oil inventory is accumulating, with sufficient supply. Although the short - term upward drive of the futures price is insufficient, the expectation is positive. It is not recommended to chase short - selling. The support level of the main contract is 8100 - 8130 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 8400 - 8450 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the results of recent Sino - US trade negotiations [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The main contract of rapeseed oil fell again. The increase in Malaysian palm oil production and the non - realization of the palm oil production reduction expectation led to a weak adjustment of the futures price, which in turn drove down the rapeseed oil price. China's rapeseed oil inventory is at a relatively high level, and the sentiment of relaxing the import policy of Canadian rapeseeds is rising. However, the short - term import supply of rapeseed is tightening, and the inventory is declining, so the basis remains firm. The main contract continued to reduce positions and volume, and the market sentiment was weak. The market may oscillate and adjust. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [4]. - **Palm Oil**: The main 01 contract of palm oil adjusted weakly on Thursday. The increase in Malaysian palm oil production led to a decline in the palm oil price, weakening the strong expectation in the fourth quarter. As the palm oil in the producing areas is about to enter the production - reduction season, it is not advisable to chase short - selling. The short - term palm oil may test the support in the 9000 - 9050 range, and the pressure level is 9350 - 9400. It is advisable to wait and see for the time being [4]. - **Soybean No.2 and Soybean Meal**: The main 11 contract of CBOT soybeans remained firm, and the main 01 contract of soybean meal rose. Frequent Sino - US trade negotiations and the expectation of an increase in US soybean exports supported the price of CBOT soybeans. China's domestic inventory of soybean meal is sufficient, and the further downward drive is weakening. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Rapeseed meal stopped falling and rebounded. Affected by weak demand and the easing of Sino - Canadian trade relations, the rapeseed meal market had been weak. However, the cumulative import volume of rapeseeds from January to September decreased by 42.2% year - on - year, and the inventory continued to decline, providing some support for the weak demand. The current fundamentals are weak in both supply and demand, and the futures price is expected to oscillate and adjust. It is recommended to go long on the 01 contract oil - meal ratio [5][6]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The futures prices continued to oscillate and consolidate on Thursday. The external market changed little. In the domestic market, the new - season harvest is in the middle and late stages. The continuous rainy weather in North China has brought new differences to the market. The short - term upward space of the futures price is still limited. It is recommended to reduce short positions on dips or pay attention to the reverse spread of the corn 1 - 5 spread [6]. - **Soybean No.1**: The main 01 contract of soybean No.1 rose on Thursday. The high - quality soybeans in Northeast China are in high demand, and due to low valuation, farmers are reluctant to sell. After continuous rises, the long - position holders are cautious, and the selling - hedging drive increases. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [7]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut futures price continued to oscillate and decline. The market lacks positive news. The new - season peanuts are gradually on the market, but the harvest weather is unfavorable, which increases concerns about the new - season output. Although the planting area has increased, the expected increase in production is discounted. There is still pressure from seasonal supply on the spot and futures prices. It is recommended to hold long positions for the time being [7]. - **Pigs**: The futures price of pigs adjusted weakly on Thursday. The spot price stopped falling this week, and the futures price rebounded after reducing positions. The market volatility remained high due to the Sino - US tariff restart negotiation. The current pig - to - grain ratio has fallen below 5. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being for conservative investors. For mid - term investment, wait for the confirmation of capacity reduction and then buy the 2607 contract on dips [8][9]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures price rebounded after reducing positions on Thursday. The spot price was stable with a slight decline this week, and the decline slowed down. The egg futures price has fallen below the historical low since 2016. It is not advisable to chase short - selling. Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy the 2512 contract on dips when the price is below the farmers' cash cost [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis - Most varieties in the feed, breeding, and oil and fat industries are expected to oscillate and adjust. For example, soybean No.1, soybean No.2, peanuts, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, palm oil, soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are all in an oscillating adjustment state. Corn and corn starch are expected to be in a low - level oscillation. Pigs and eggs are in an oscillating bottom - seeking state [12]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - period Arbitrage**: For most varieties, it is recommended to wait and see, such as soybean No.1 11 - 1, soybean No.2 11 - 1, etc. For the corn 5 - 1 spread, it is recommended to go long on dips with a reference target of 180 - 200. For the pig 1 - 3 spread, it is recommended to do a positive spread on dips [13]. - **Inter - variety Arbitrage**: For some spreads, such as 01 soybean oil - palm oil, it is recommended to operate bearishly; for 01 rapeseed oil - soybean oil, it is recommended to operate bullishly; for the 01 contract oil - meal ratio of beans and rapeseeds, it is recommended to operate bullishly [13]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors, including soybeans, rapeseed, palm oil, etc. For example, the spot price of soybean No.1 is 3980 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract is - 133 yuan/ton [14]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oilseeds and Oils - **Daily Data**: It shows the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping periods, including CNF prices, import duty - paid prices, and the cost of soybean meal when the profit is zero [15][16]. - **Weekly Data**: It presents the inventory and operating rates of various oilseeds and oils. For example, the port inventory of soybeans is 773.35 (with a change of 21.92), and the operating rate of soybean processing plants is 58.00% [17]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months [18]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [18]. 3.2.3 Breeding - It includes the daily and weekly data of pigs and eggs, such as the price, weight, and profit of pigs, as well as the price, production rate, and inventory of eggs [19][20][21][23]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - The report provides a series of charts to track the fundamentals of the breeding, oilseeds and oils, and feed sectors, including the closing prices of futures contracts, spot prices, basis, spreads, production, export, inventory, and other data of various varieties [24][35][52]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Breeding, and Oils - The report shows the historical volatility of futures prices of varieties such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [86][87][88]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Breeding, and Oils - It presents the warehouse receipt quantities of various varieties, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs, as well as the open interest of the pig and egg indexes [91][92][94].
大商所油脂油料:10月23日多品种仓单环比持平
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-23 08:15
Core Viewpoint - On October 23, the Dalian Commodity Exchange released data on oilseed and oil warehouse receipts, indicating stable inventory levels across various commodities [1] Group 1: Warehouse Receipts Data - Palm oil futures warehouse receipts stood at 600 contracts, unchanged from the previous period [1] - Soybean oil futures warehouse receipts totaled 26,294 contracts, also remaining flat [1] - Soybean meal futures warehouse receipts reached 42,582 contracts, with no change compared to the last report [1] - First soybean futures warehouse receipts were at 7,090 contracts, consistent with previous data [1] - Second soybean futures warehouse receipts were recorded at 100 contracts, showing no variation [1]