Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Agricultural Sector**: The agricultural sector is experiencing a transition with various commodities showing signs of improvement in supply-demand dynamics, particularly in 2026. The focus is on the poultry, palm oil, and cotton industries as they exhibit potential for growth and investment opportunities [2][24]. Key Insights and Arguments Egg Industry - The egg industry is projected to face severe losses due to overcapacity starting in the second half of 2025, with expectations of continued impact until September 2026. However, a decrease in stock levels is anticipated, which may create upward price pressure in the future. Companies like Xiaoming Agriculture and Huayu Co. are highlighted for their long-term potential due to their connections with large-scale farms [1][4][15]. - The egg industry has a higher concentration than the pig industry, making it more attractive for investment. The average profit margin exceeded 25% from 2021 to 2024, but a significant downturn is expected due to overproduction [3][9]. Palm Oil Industry - The palm oil supply-demand relationship is marginally improving, with stable global demand growth. Even without U.S. policy changes, production cuts in Southeast Asia and price advantages in international markets support potential price increases. However, the impact of Indonesia's new government seizing palm plantation land could reduce yield rates [1][5][21]. - The palm oil market is expected to remain stable, with prices not likely to drop significantly due to seasonal production cuts in Southeast Asia [20][32]. Cotton Industry - The cotton supply-demand situation is gradually improving, with Xinjiang planning to reduce the area planted with low-yield or water-scarce cotton, which could lead to price increases. Short-term pressures may exist, but long-term potential remains strong [1][6][22]. Chicken Seed Market - The Chinese chicken seed market is highly concentrated, with the top three companies (C23) holding 75%-85% market share. The domestic chicken seed sales have plummeted, leading to a significant reduction in supply, which is expected to improve in the coming months [10][12][14]. Other Important Insights - **Economic Environment**: The current economic conditions are leading to a decline in per capita protein and oil consumption, primarily due to aging demographics and economic transitions. This has a more pronounced effect on pork consumption compared to eggs, which are more suitable for older populations [3][25]. - **Market Dynamics**: The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China regarding soybean and cotton trade, have led to China stockpiling sufficient reserves to mitigate risks. Brazil's role in the global agricultural supply chain is critical, as it supplies a significant portion of China's soybean needs [29][30]. - **Weather Events**: The potential emergence of the El Niño phenomenon in April 2027 could significantly impact agricultural markets, necessitating close monitoring of weather patterns and their effects on production [33][34]. Conclusion - The agricultural sector is poised for a recovery in 2026, with specific commodities like eggs, palm oil, and cotton showing promising signs. However, challenges such as overcapacity, geopolitical tensions, and weather-related risks must be carefully navigated to capitalize on these opportunities [2][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report on the protein meal market indicates that the Brazilian soybean harvest rate is increasing, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest The USDA has adjusted the US soybean production and export forecasts, leading to an increase in ending stocks, and the report's impact on the market is neutral to bearish Domestically, factors such as good state - reserve soybean auction results, high domestic soybean meal inventories, and the expected bumper harvest of South American soybeans will continue to put pressure on prices [3] - Regarding the oil market, the MPOB report data is in line with expectations, and the overall impact on the market is neutral The cancellation of Indonesia's plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% has raised concerns about palm oil demand, but positive news about US soybean oil demand has boosted oil prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Futures Market - For domestic futures, the prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil futures have declined, with decreases of - 0.78%, - 1.94%, and - 3.15% respectively; soybean meal futures decreased by - 0.40%, while rapeseed meal futures increased by 5.01%, and peanut futures increased by 0.29% [2] - In terms of spreads and ratios, there have been changes in various spreads and ratios, such as the Y9 - 1 spread changing from - 390 to - 364, the P9 - 1 spread changing from - 26 to 62, etc [2] 3.2 International Futures Market - The price of BMD palm oil futures decreased by - 0.48%, CBOT soybeans increased by 0.96%, CBOT US soybean oil increased by 3.72%, and CBOT US soybean meal decreased by - 0.96% [2] 3.3 Domestic Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil decreased, with decreases of - 0.82%, - 2.26%, and - 1.23% respectively; the prices of soybean meal remained unchanged, rapeseed meal decreased by - 0.84%, and peanuts remained unchanged [2] - There have been changes in spot spreads, such as the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil remaining unchanged at - 150, and the spread between Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil changing from 1280 to 1210 [2] 3.4 Import Profit and Warehouse Receipts - Import profits have changed, with the import profit of Malaysian palm oil changing from - 251 to - 372, and the import profit of US Gulf soybeans changing from - 146 to - 175 [2] - Warehouse receipts have also changed, with the number of soybean oil warehouse receipts changing from 29,147 to 28,247, and the number of palm oil warehouse receipts changing from 1,248 to 1,448 [2] 3.5 Industry Information - According to NOPA data, the US soybean oil inventory in December 2025 was 1.642 billion pounds, and the soybean crushing volume was 224.991 million bushels [3] - As of January 10, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 98.2%, and the harvest rate was 0.6% [3] - The USDA has adjusted the US 2025/26 soybean production and export forecasts, increasing the ending stocks to 350 million bushels [3] - The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in December decreased by 5.46% month - on - month, exports increased by 8.52% month - on - month, and inventories increased by 7.58% month - on - month [3] - Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year and will maintain the biodiesel plan at the B40 level [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - The oilseed market received positive news as the Trump administration plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quotas by early March, maintaining the initial proposal while dropping penalties on renewable fuel imports [1] - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency indicated an increase in biomass diesel targets made from soybean oil and other crops, which could significantly boost biomass diesel production if adopted [1] - Soybean oil futures surged by 3.81%, while domestic futures for rapeseed oil rose by 2.57%, and palm oil and soybean oil futures saw slight increases [1] Group 2: Palm Oil Market Dynamics - The palm oil market is shifting focus, with Indonesia experiencing a production decline due to the rainy season and strong export performance [2] - Indonesia is considering raising palm oil export taxes to support its B50 plan, which could elevate global price levels and enhance the competitiveness of Malaysian palm oil [2] - Strong export data, particularly a nearly 50% year-on-year increase in exports to India, has shifted market attention from static high inventories to tightening supply-demand expectations [2] Group 3: Rapeseed Oil Market Challenges - The rapeseed oil market is primarily driven by trade policy expectations, with short-term price support from delayed arrivals and low inventories [3] - However, long-term supply pressures are anticipated due to improved trade relations following the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China, which may lead to policy adjustments [3] - Market participants are awaiting outcomes from high-level meetings between China and Canada, as any news regarding tariffs or trade policies could cause significant market fluctuations [3] Group 4: Soybean Oil Market Insights - Domestic demand for small packaged oil is strong ahead of the Spring Festival, with a forecasted decrease in soybean arrivals in Q1, supporting soybean oil prices [4] - However, favorable weather in Brazil is raising expectations for a bumper crop, alongside domestic policy-driven stock releases, which may limit price increases [4] - The domestic soybean oil inventory has dropped to a near five-month low, creating a solid price floor amid consumption peak expectations [4] Group 5: Future Market Outlook - The potential implementation of increased export taxes by Indonesia will be crucial in determining the sustainability of the palm oil price rebound, impacting global demand distribution [4] - The soybean oil market is expected to maintain a stable fundamental outlook in Q1 due to ongoing holiday consumption support, with limited changes anticipated [4] - The market is entering a phase of expectation validation, with a focus on the speed of inventory reduction in palm oil and a range-bound trading pattern for soybean oil until South American production is fully realized [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. government plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quotas by early March, maintaining the initial proposal while dropping penalties on renewable fuel imports, which could lead to a significant increase in biomass diesel production [1] - Soybean oil futures surged by 3.81% following the news, while domestic vegetable oil futures also saw gains, with palm oil and soybean oil futures rising slightly [1] - The palm oil market is currently in a state of "bad news exhausted, new drivers arriving," with a focus on the potential impact of Indonesia's export tax increase on palm oil, which could enhance its competitiveness globally [2] Group 2 - Indonesia's rainy season is expected to reduce palm oil production in January and February, while strong export performance is noted, particularly with a nearly 50% year-on-year increase in exports to India [2] - The palm oil price rebound faces challenges due to higher-than-expected production in December, leading to inventory accumulation, which creates price pressure [2] - The canola oil market is primarily driven by trade policy expectations, with short-term price support from delayed imports and low inventory, but long-term supply pressures are anticipated due to improved trade relations with Canada [3] Group 3 - Domestic demand for soybean oil is strong ahead of the Spring Festival, with a forecasted decrease in soybean imports in the first quarter, supporting short-term prices [3] - The international soybean market lacks new developments, but domestic soybean oil inventories have dropped to a five-month low, providing a solid price floor [3] - Future market dynamics will focus on the speed of inventory reduction for palm oil and the balance between tight supply and policy expectations for canola oil, with potential for trend-driven movements [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core View - For the stock index, at the beginning of the year, incremental funds entered the market, the margin trading scale increased significantly, and the market trading volume quickly expanded. In the long - term, policies support the capital market. In the short - term, focus on the market rhythm and adopt the strategy of buying on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, the market's improved economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery needs to be observed. In the first quarter, the bond market is expected to fluctuate weakly due to factors such as the stock market's spring rally, government bond supply, and interest rate cut expectations [7]. - For precious metals, the current international gold price is rising steadily, and the silver price is rising rapidly with significant volatility. It is recommended to hold existing long positions, and there are significant risks in opening new long or short positions [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to fluctuate widely. For example, copper prices are supported by tight supply at the mine end, aluminum prices are affected by overseas low inventory and domestic downstream demand, and nickel prices are constrained by oversupply pressure but supported by macro - factors [12][14][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate at a relatively high level, and the prices of coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate in the current range [32][34][38]. - For energy and chemicals, rubber can be considered with a neutral strategy, oil prices can be traded with a low - buying and high - selling strategy, and the strategies for other chemicals vary according to their fundamentals [54][56]. - For agricultural products, the short - term trend of hog prices is expected to be stable with partial fluctuations, egg prices may have different trends in the near and far months, and the prices of other agricultural products are also affected by supply and demand and other factors [78][79][81]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: Three departments held a symposium on new energy vehicle enterprises, Shanghai issued an action plan for high - level autonomous driving, the central bank carried out a 900 - billion - yuan repurchase operation, and tax rebates were offered for housing purchases [2]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips in the short - term [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of main contracts showed different changes. The central bank carried out a 900 - billion - yuan repurchase operation, and China's export and import data in December 2025 were positive. The central bank's net investment was 212.2 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The bond market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the first quarter [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rose, and there were differences in the statements of Fed officials. US PPI and retail sales data were released [8]. - **Strategy**: Hold existing long positions, and avoid opening new long or short positions [8]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The domestic equity market fluctuated, copper prices rose, LME copper inventory increased, and the import loss of Shanghai copper expanded [10]. - **Strategy**: Copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The domestic spot market weakened, aluminum prices fluctuated, and inventory increased [13]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose, and inventory and other data were released [15]. - **Strategy**: Zinc prices are expected to oscillate widely following the non - ferrous sector [15]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices rose, and inventory and other data were released [16]. - **Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to oscillate widely following the non - ferrous sector [16]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuated, and the prices of raw materials such as nickel ore and nickel iron were stable [17]. - **Strategy**: Nickel prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose to the daily limit, supply and demand and inventory data changed [19][20]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate following market sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed [22]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious due to the risk of a significant correction, and it is recommended to wait and see or take a light position [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina rose, and inventory and other data changed [24]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see, and it is not cost - effective to chase long positions. Consider shorting near - month contracts on rallies [25]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rose, and inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy**: Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices fluctuated, and inventory decreased [28]. - **Strategy**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are supported by cost and supply factors, and may strengthen further [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices fluctuated, and inventory and other data changed [31]. - **Strategy**: Steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to market rumors and policy impacts [32]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [33]. - **Strategy**: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to steel mills' restocking and iron - making production rhythms [34]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: Coking coal prices rose, and coke prices fell. Spot prices and inventory data changed [35]. - **Strategy**: Coking coal and coke prices are expected to oscillate in the current range, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and policy impacts [38]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices were stable, and inventory decreased. Soda ash prices rose, and inventory increased [39][41]. - **Strategy**: For glass, it is recommended to wait and see due to high inventory. For soda ash, the market is weak and lacks substantial positive support [40][41]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose slightly [42]. - **Strategy**: The market is affected by market sentiment and cost factors. Pay attention to manganese ore supply and "dual - carbon" policy impacts [44]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose, and polysilicon prices fell. Supply, demand, and inventory data changed [45][47]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be under pressure, and polysilicon prices are expected to be weak in the short - term. Pay attention to production plans and policy impacts [46][49]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fluctuated, and supply and demand data changed [51][52]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral strategy. If the RU2605 contract falls below 16,000, switch to a short - term short strategy [54]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined oil prices rose, and inventory data showed accumulation [55]. - **Strategy**: Do not be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. Adopt a low - buying and high - selling strategy and wait and see for now [56]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices changed, and regional spot prices and MTO profits changed [57]. - **Strategy**: Methanol has limited downward space and is suitable for buying on dips [58]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices rose, and regional spot prices and basis data changed [59][60]. - **Strategy**: Take profits on rallies due to expected fundamental bearish factors [61]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices were stable, and styrene prices changed. Supply, demand, and inventory data changed [62]. - **Strategy**: It is possible to go long on non - integrated styrene profits before the first quarter [63]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices fell, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [64]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies in the medium - term due to strong supply and weak demand [65]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [66]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts. Be cautious of rebound risks in the short - term [67]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices fell, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [68]. - **Strategy**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage after short - term inventory reduction. Pay attention to mid - term long - buying opportunities [69]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: PX prices fell, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [70][71]. - **Strategy**: PX is expected to maintain a small inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season and follow crude oil for mid - term long - buying opportunities [72]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [73]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips as the long - term contradiction shifts to production mismatch [74]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [75]. - **Strategy**: The PP price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year as the supply - surplus pattern changes [76]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market Information**: Hog prices were stable with partial fluctuations [78]. - **Strategy**: The short - term spot price has limited downward momentum, and the mid - term supply is large. Consider short - selling on rallies and long - buying on dips in the long - term [79]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with some increases [80]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell near - month contracts on rallies and be cautious of over - valued far - month contracts [81]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: Protein meal prices fell, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [82]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the short - term [83]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Oil prices fluctuated, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [84][85]. - **Strategy**: The current fundamentals are weak, but the long - term outlook is optimistic, and oil prices may be near the bottom [86]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices rebounded, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [87][88]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the international sugar price to rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest in February. Temporarily wait and see in the domestic market [89]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [90][91]. - **Strategy**: The 1 - month USDA report is neutral. Wait for a pullback to go long on Zhengzhou cotton [92].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The implementation of Indonesia's "B50" biodiesel mandatory blending policy depends on the prices of crude oil and crude palm oil [3] - Malaysia's 2026 palm oil production is expected to be between 19.5 and 19.8 million tons, down from 20.28 million tons in 2025, and the inventory is expected to be 2 million tons, down from 3.05 million tons in 2025 [3] - The night - session of protein meal futures closed down. Brazil's soybean harvest rate is increasing, and the US Department of Agriculture has adjusted the production and export forecasts of US soybeans, with a neutral - to - bearish impact on the market. High domestic soybean meal inventory and the expected high yield of South American soybeans will continue to pressure prices [3] - The night - session of oil futures was weak. The MPOB report had a neutral impact on the market. After the release of the Malaysian palm oil report, the negative factors were exhausted. The improvement in fundamentals is expected to drive the oil sector to fluctuate strongly in the short term [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and other varieties are given, along with their price changes and percentage changes. For example, the previous day's closing price of soybean oil futures was 7986, with a decline of 8 and a decline rate of - 0.10% [2] - **Spreads and Ratios**: The spreads and ratios of different contracts are presented, such as the Y9 - 1 spread of soybean oil futures being - 364, and the M/RM09 ratio of protein meal futures being 1.21 [2] International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of international futures such as BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans are provided. For example, the previous day's closing price of BMD palm oil was 3970, with no change and a change rate of 0.00% [2] Domestic Spot Market - **Spot Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices and their percentage changes of various oils and meals in different regions are given. For example, the current spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 8510, with a decline rate of - 0.12% [2] - **Spot Basis and Spreads**: The spot basis and spreads between different products are presented. For example, the spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 524, and the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is - 150 [2] Import and Crushing Profit - The current and previous values of import and crushing profits for different imported products such as Malaysian palm oil, US Gulf soybeans are provided. For example, the current import profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil is - 261, compared with - 232 previously [2] Warehouse Receipts - The current and previous values of warehouse receipts for different products such as soybean oil, palm oil are given. For example, the current number of soybean oil warehouse receipts is 29,147, compared with 29,197 previously [2]

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market closed mixed during the night session, with energy products leading the gains, particularly fuel which rose by 5.25% [1] - Most chemical products saw an increase, with methanol rising by 1.64% [1] - The black series mostly increased, with iron ore up by 0.43% [1] Group 2 - Non-metallic building materials experienced significant declines, with glass dropping by 2.50% [1] - All oilseeds and oils fell, with soybean oil down by 1.25% [1] - Most agricultural products declined, with corn starch decreasing by 0.66% [1]

Group 1: Hot News - Trump denied his involvement in the Justice Department's subpoena to the Federal Reserve and said Fed Chair Powell's performance was poor [2] - Guangzhou Futures Exchange warned of market uncertainties and price fluctuations, and will strengthen supervision [2] - Shanghai Gold Exchange notified significant price fluctuations in precious metals and advised risk prevention [2] - The Australian government plans to buy and stockpile key minerals worth A$1.2 billion from local miners [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key commodities to watch: silver, caustic soda, tin, nickel, PVC [3] - Night - session performance: non - metallic building materials rose 2.05%, precious metals 32.45%, etc. [3] Group 3: Sector Position - Shows the five - day change in commodity futures sector positions from January 6 - 12, 2026 [4] Group 4: Major Asset Performance - Equity: Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.09% daily, 4.95% monthly and yearly; other indices had various performances [5] - Fixed - income: 10 - year Treasury futures rose 0.06% daily, - 0.01% monthly and yearly; others had different changes [5] - Commodities: CRB Commodity Index rose 0.85% daily, 1.76% monthly and yearly; other commodities also had different performances [5] - Others: the US Dollar Index fell 0.24% daily, rose 0.64% monthly and yearly; CBOE Volatility was flat daily, fell 3.08% monthly and yearly [5] Group 5: Stock Market Risk Preference and Commodity Trends - Displays the trends of major commodities such as BDI, CRB index, WTI crude oil, etc. [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of oils and fats is neutral - to - bullish, with attention on weather. Demand is bullish, inventory shows a mixed situation (palm oil is under observation, soybean and rapeseed oils are tight), and the macro and policy environment is bullish. The investment view is to wait for a long - entry opportunity for palm oil, go short on rapeseed oil at high levels, and expect soybean oil to strengthen [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is neutral - to - bullish, and weather should be monitored. Southeast Asian precipitation has eased, South American dryness may affect soybean yields, domestic soybean oil mills are operating normally, there is a shortage of domestic rapeseed, and Malaysian palm oil has entered the traditional production - reduction season [3]. - **Demand**: It is bullish. China is in the Spring Festival stocking period, followed by the Southeast Asian Ramadan stocking period. The US biofuel RVO has an uncertain impact, and domestic soybean oil consumption is stable with export support [3]. - **Inventory**: Palm oil is under observation, while soybean and rapeseed oils are tight. Malaysian palm oil inventory is high, but the overall situation in the producing areas is not as pessimistic as expected. Domestic soybean oil is gradually de - stocking, and rapeseed oil is also de - stocking due to supply shortages [3]. - **Macro and Policy**: It is bullish. Geopolitical tensions may lead to a rebound in crude oil prices, which in turn affects biofuel and oil prices. The US biofuel policy is to be released in the first quarter, and Indonesia will increase export taxes for the B50 plan [3]. - **Investment View**: Wait for a long - entry opportunity for palm oil, go short on rapeseed oil at high levels. The MPOB December data may be bearish for palm oil, but it will reverse later. Soybean oil is expected to strengthen, and attention should be paid to the USDA report and Argentine weather. The key for rapeseed oil is when the supply - side contradiction can be resolved [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on soybean oil in the single - side trade. For arbitrage, go long on Y and short on OI, conduct P5 - 9 positive spreads, and OI3 - 5 positive spreads. Before the report is released, lightly go long on the volatility of P and Y [3]. 3.2 Market Review - The content mainly presents the closing prices of the main contracts of oils and fats and the trends of the agricultural product index, as well as various spreads such as P05 - 09, Y05 - 09, OI05 - 09, OI - P 05, OI - Y 05, and Y - P 05 [5][9][14][15]. 3.3 Fundamentals of Oils and Fats Supply and Demand - **Southeast Asian Weather**: Information on past and future precipitation and temperature in Southeast Asia is provided [19][23][29]. - **Indonesian Monthly Supply and Demand**: Data on Indonesian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory are presented [32][36][37]. - **Malaysian Monthly Supply and Demand**: Information on Malaysian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory is given [38][43]. - **Indian Monthly Imports and International Soybean - Palm Oil Spread**: Data on Indian imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, as well as the Argentine soybean oil - Malaysian palm oil spread are shown [44][49]. - **Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand**: Information on China's palm oil import volume, trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost, and import profit is provided [50][52][54]. - **Weather and Soybean Production**: Information on future temperature and precipitation in Brazilian and Argentine soybean - producing areas, as well as the sowing progress in Brazil and Argentina, is presented [61][64][70]. - **US and Brazilian Export Situations**: Data on US soybean export sales volume, export volume, and Brazilian soybean monthly export volume are shown [75][79]. - **Domestic Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation**: Information on China's soybean weekly arrival volume, soybean oil production, trading volume, and inventory is provided [89]. - **Origin Rapeseed Export and Domestic Arrival Situation**: Data on the FOB price of rapeseed in different origins, Canadian rapeseed export volume, domestic rapeseed arrival volume, and rapeseed oil import volume are shown [90][92]. - **Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Situation**: Information on China's rapeseed weekly crushing volume, rapeseed oil production,提货量, and inventory is provided [100][101].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The main contract of soybean oil rose this week. The auction of imported soybeans is expected to have a negative impact on soybean oil. Although the current supply of soybean oil in China has tightened, the overall supply remains abundant. The continued upward drive of soybean oil is expected to be insufficient, and long - position holders are advised to exit and wait and see. The support level of the main 05 contract is 7600 - 7650 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 8030 - 8050 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil fluctuated widely this week. The news of the Canadian Prime Minister's upcoming visit to China has put pressure on the rapeseed oil market. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is still in a destocking state. In the short term, rapeseed oil is expected to maintain a volatile pattern. In the long - term, the expected increase in Australian rapeseed supply and the global rapeseed harvest pattern will still pose significant pressure on prices. One - sided short - selling at high prices can be considered. The 05 contract has a pressure range of 9300 - 9350 yuan/ton and a support level of 8650 - 8700 yuan/ton [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The main contract of palm oil strengthened with fluctuations this week. The approach of India's traditional New Year stocking and the significant improvement in January's Malaysian palm oil export data have increased market expectations for export demand recovery. The Indonesian president's statement has raised concerns about future supply tightening. The strong biodiesel policy and supply tightening expectations have jointly supported palm oil prices. However, the inventory accumulation expectation for Malaysian palm oil in December is still high. The palm oil market has short - term bearish and long - term bullish prospects. Cautious investors are advised to wait for the release of the MPOB report before considering long - position entry at low prices. The main contract has a support level of 8300 - 8350 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 8700 - 8750 yuan/ton [3]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 2**: The prices of soybean meal and soybean No. 2 rose and then fell this week. The auction of imported soybeans is expected to ensure sufficient supply. The 05 contracts of soybean meal and soybean No. 2 are expected to be sold short on rebounds [4][5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Rapeseed meal futures rose and then fell this week. The news of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China has put pressure on the domestic rapeseed market. The inventory is continuously decreasing, but the fundamental outlook is still bearish. It is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, and short - selling at high prices can be considered [5]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The main contract of soybean No. 1 rose and then fell this week. The market logic has not changed significantly. The valuation is not low, and the continued upward drive is not strong. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The futures prices showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend this week. The supply pressure is limited, and the export data of US corn is good. The wheat auction and China Grain Reserves Corporation's corn sales have had a certain impact on the domestic market, but the overall short - term pressure is not significant. It is recommended to buy on dips. For corn 2603, the support range is 2160 - 2170, and the pressure range is 2330 - 2350. For corn starch 03, the support range is 2430 - 2440, and the pressure range is 2630 - 2650. Selling out - of - the - money put options is recommended for option operations [5]. - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs rebounded with fluctuations over the weekend. The terminal consumption has improved month - on - month. The overall commodity market has stopped falling and rebounded in January, and the sentiment in the agricultural product sector has warmed up. Cautious investors can hold short - near - month and long - far - month reverse spreads, while aggressive investors can buy the 2607 contract when the price falls below the breeding cost and sell deep out - of - the - money call options with a strike price above 15,000 to reduce the bottom - fishing cost [6]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs rose with fluctuations over the weekend. The egg price has rebounded after a seasonal decline since the fourth quarter. The terminal consumption is expected to increase month - on - month in January. The current egg price is relatively low, and the egg - laying hen inventory is at a historical high. Aggressive investors can buy the 2605 contract on dips, and speculative short - selling should be cautious [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis - Different varieties in the feed, breeding, and oil industries have different market logics, support levels, pressure levels, and corresponding trading strategies. For example, soybean No. 1 05 is expected to be in a volatile adjustment, and it is recommended to wait and see; soybean No. 2 05 is expected to be sold short on rebounds [10]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, main contract basis, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors, including soybeans, peanuts, oils, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs [11][12]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: The report presents the import cost data of oilseeds, including the arrival premium, CBOT soybean futures price, CNF arrival price, soybean import arrival duty - paid price, and soybean meal cost at zero profit for different shipping dates of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans, as well as the relevant data for rapeseed and palm oil [12][13]. - **Weekly Data**: The weekly data of oilseeds shows the inventory and operating rates of different varieties, such as the inventory of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, peanuts, and peanut oil, and their corresponding operating rates [14]. 3.2.2 Feed - The report provides the weekly data of corn and corn starch, including the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of starch enterprises, as well as the grain - selling progress of farmers [14]. 3.2.3 Breeding - **Pigs**: The report shows the key weekly data of the pig market, including spot prices, breeding costs, profits, slaughter data, and other indicators [15]. - **Eggs**: The report presents the key weekly data of the egg market, including supply - side indicators such as egg - laying rate, proportion of different egg sizes, and elimination of laying hens, as well as demand - side indicators and profit - related data [16]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Breeding End (Pigs and Eggs)**: The report includes charts of the closing prices of the main contracts of pigs and eggs, as well as the spot prices of pigs, piglets, and eggs [17][19][20]. - **Oilseeds** - **Palm Oil**: The report provides charts of Malaysia's palm oil monthly production, export volume, ending inventory, import profit, import volume, domestic inventory, daily trading volume, and price spreads [26][29]. - **Soybean Oil**: The report includes charts of US soybean crushing volume, US soybean oil inventory, soybean crushing profit, domestic soybean oil mill operating rate, domestic soybean oil inventory, daily trading volume, and price spreads [31][33][36]. - **Peanuts**: The report presents charts of the arrival and shipment volume of peanuts in domestic wholesale markets, peanut crushing profit, oil mill raw material procurement volume, peanut operating rate, peanut inventory, peanut oil inventory, peanut import volume, and price spreads [39][40][42]. - **Feed End** - **Corn**: The report includes charts of the spot price, futures closing price, basis, price spreads, port inventory, grain - selling progress, import volume, consumption, inventory, and processing profit of corn [44][45][46]. - **Corn Starch**: The report provides charts of the spot price, futures closing price, basis, price spreads, operating rate, inventory, and profit of corn starch [50][52][53]. - **Rapeseed**: The report presents charts of the spot price of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, basis, inventory, and pressing profit of rapeseed and rapeseed products [55][57][61]. - **Soybean Meal**: The report includes charts of the flowering rate and pod - setting rate of US soybeans, as well as the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal [65][68]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Option Situation of Feed, Breeding, and Oil - The report provides charts of the historical volatility of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [70][71][72]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Breeding, and Oil - The report presents charts of the warehouse receipt situation of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs, as well as the open interest of the pig and egg indexes [74][75][76].