Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Oils and Fats**: The prices of oils and fats rose during the day. The pre - holiday stockpiling before the double festivals supported the oil prices to some extent. There were strong expectations of a consumption peak season and decreasing supply in the fourth quarter, but the high domestic inventory and weak spot market sentiment limited the increase of soybean oil prices. For the Y2601 contract, it was advisable to hold long positions, with support at 8300 - 8330 yuan/ton and resistance at 8460 - 8500 yuan/ton. Buying out - of - the - money call options was also recommended. For rapeseed oil, due to the anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseeds, the market expected a reduction in Canadian rapeseed purchases. The increase in imports from Russia, Dubai, and Australia could partly make up for the supply. Palm oil was in a seasonal inventory - building period, but the export demand improved, and there was an expectation of an increase in the biodiesel blending ratio [3][4]. - **Feed Grains**: For corn and corn starch, the external market had some factors supporting the prices, but the expected high yield in the Northern Hemisphere and inventory build - up in the US would limit the increase. In the domestic market, it was a game between low channel inventory and seasonal pressure. It was recommended to hold short positions cautiously [7]. - **Grains and Beans**: The price of soybeans No. 1 continued to decline. There was an expectation of a good harvest of new soybeans, and with the increase in supply, it was advisable to hold short positions. For peanuts, there was an expectation of an increase in production, and the seasonal supply pressure affected the prices, but the pre - holiday stockpiling had a certain supporting effect [8][9]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The price of live pigs fluctuated weakly. There was a strong expectation of capacity reduction, and it was recommended to hold long positions. The price of eggs fluctuated and was at a low level. It was recommended to buy at low prices considering the consumption peak season [10]. Summary by Directory Part One: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Analysis - **Oils and Fats and Oilseeds**: Soybeans No. 1 and No. 2 were expected to be bearish or in adjustment. Peanuts were in an adjustment phase, and it was advisable to short lightly. Soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil were expected to be bullish, and it was recommended to hold long positions or buy at low prices [13]. - **Protein Feed**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal were in different market conditions. Soybean meal was expected to be weakly bearish, and it was advisable to wait and see. Rapeseed meal was expected to be bullish, and it was recommended to buy at low prices [13]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn and corn starch were under pressure, and it was recommended to hold short positions [13]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: Live pigs were expected to rebound, and it was recommended to hold long positions. Eggs were in a process of finding a bottom, and it was advisable to buy at low prices [13]. 2. Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - period Arbitrage**: For some varieties like soybean meal 3 - 5, it was recommended to conduct positive spreads. For others, it was mostly recommended to wait and see [14][15]. - **Inter - commodity Arbitrage**: For some oil - related spreads, different strategies such as shorting, going long, or waiting and seeing were recommended. For the oil - meal ratio of soybeans, it was recommended to go long [15]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provided spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties, including oils and fats, protein feeds, energy and by - products, and livestock and poultry [16]. Part Two: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: Included import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates [18]. - **Weekly Data**: Provided inventory and operating rate data of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [20]. 2. Feed - **Daily Data**: Showed the import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil [20]. - **Weekly Data**: Provided data on corn consumption, inventory, and starch enterprise operating rate and inventory [21]. 3. Livestock and Poultry - **Daily Data**: Included daily data of live pigs and eggs, such as prices and price changes [22][23]. - **Weekly Data**: Provided weekly key data of live pigs and eggs, including supply, demand, cost, and profit data [24][26]. Part Three: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock and Poultry**: Included charts of live pig and egg futures and spot prices, as well as related data such as piglet prices and chicken苗 prices [27][31][33] - **Oils and Fats and Oilseeds**: Included charts of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanut production, inventory, trading volume, and spreads [36][46][55] - **Feed**: Included charts of corn, corn starch, rapeseed - related, and soybean meal - related data, such as prices, inventory, and spreads [61][69][73][80] Part Four: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils and Fats The report provided charts of historical volatility of various varieties and options trading volume and open interest data of corn [95][96][97] Part Five: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils and Fats The report provided charts of warehouse receipt quantities of various varieties, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs [98][99][100]

油脂油料产业日报 2025/09/15 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究 ...

Report Overview - The report provides overnight market information on oilseeds and oils, including data from USDA reports, export figures, and news on biodiesel projects [1]. - It also presents spot prices of various oilseeds and oils from September 8 - 12, 2025 [2]. USDA Oilseed Report Highlights Rapeseed - Global 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to reach 9096.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 523.5 million tons; ending stocks are expected to be 1137.4 million tons, up 101 million tons [1]. - Global 2025/26 rapeseed oil production is expected to be 3469.9 million tons, up 59.8 million tons; ending stocks are expected to be 312.2 million tons, down 8.8 million tons [1]. - Global 2025/26 rapeseed meal production is expected to be 4958.2 million tons, up 57.3 million tons; ending stocks are expected to be 157.9 million tons, up 19.8 million tons [1]. - Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed exports are expected to be 670 million tons, down 263.5 million tons; rapeseed oil exports are expected to be 337.5 million tons, up 3.5 million tons; rapeseed meal exports are expected to be 550 million tons, down 29.9 million tons [1]. Palm Oil - Global 2025/26 palm oil production is expected to be 8081.6 million tons, an increase of 8 million tons from last month's estimate [1]. - Global 2025/26 palm oil ending stocks are expected to be 1524 million tons, up 20.6 million tons from last month's estimate [1]. - Global 2025/26 palm oil exports are expected to be 4570.8 million tons, a downward revision of 45.5 million tons from last month's estimate [1]. - Indonesia's palm oil exports are expected to be 2400 million tons, unchanged from last month's estimate; Malaysia's palm oil exports are expected to be 1610 million tons, also unchanged [1]. Soybean - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is estimated at 175 million tons, the same as the August estimate; exports are estimated at 112 million tons, unchanged from August [1]. - Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production is estimated at 48.5 million tons, the same as in August; exports are estimated at 6 million tons, up from 5.8 million tons in August [1]. - China's 2025/26 soybean imports are estimated at 112 million tons, the same as the August estimate [1]. - Global 2025/26 soybean production is estimated at 425.87 million tons, down from 426.39 million tons in August; ending stocks are estimated at 123.99 million tons, down from 124.9 million tons in August [1]. Other Market Information - Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 10, 2025, were 244,940 tons, a 27.8% decline from the same period last month [1]. - Indonesia may increase the mandatory palm oil content in biodiesel to 45% (B45) before reaching B50, currently at 40% [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from September 8 - 12, 2025, are presented in a table [2].

Core Views Palm Oil - Internationally, Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in a sideways consolidation, likely to fluctuate between 4,400 - 4,500 ringgit awaiting production and export data. Seasonal production growth and weak export data may pressure the market. If it fails to hold above 4,500 ringgit, there's a risk of a downward breakout [3]. - Domestically, Dalian palm oil futures are also consolidating, following the trend of Malaysian palm oil. If Malaysian palm oil can't stay above 4,500 ringgit, Dalian palm oil may break down towards 9,000 yuan due to pre - National Day trading dynamics. Attention should be paid to the 40 - day moving average around 9,200 yuan and the performance of Malaysian palm oil [3]. Soybean Oil - Domestically, sufficient supply and increasing demand coexist. The market is influenced by international related products. The upcoming harvest of US soybeans exerts supply pressure on the international market, affecting domestic soybean oil prices. If the report is better than expected, CBOT soybeans may rise and boost Dalian soybean oil; otherwise, Dalian soybean oil may test the 8,300 - yuan support. After the monthly report is digested, the market may rise due to Mid - Autumn Festival stocking [4]. Oilseeds (Bean Meal) - The firm South American soybean premium supports import costs, but news of potential China - US high - level talks in Madrid has emerged. In the short term, the market is a mix of weak current situation and strong expectations. The main contract of Dalian bean meal should be watched for resistance at 3,100 - 3,120 yuan/ton. Spot prices are slowly rising, and attention should be paid to feed companies' restocking in late September [18]. Price Data Oil Futures Price | Futures | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil 01 | 9,296 yuan/ton | -0.36% | | | Palm Oil 05 | 9,062 yuan/ton | -0.57% | | | Palm Oil 09 | 9,384 yuan/ton | -0.66% | | | BMD Palm Oil Main | 4,441 ringgit/ton | -0.29% | | | Dalian Soybean Oil 01 | 8,322 yuan/ton | -0.29% | | | Dalian Soybean Oil 05 | 8,018 yuan/ton | 0.39% | | | Dalian Soybean Oil 09 | 8,398 yuan/ton | -0.26% | | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main | 51.61 cents/pound | 1.24% | | Oilseed Futures Price | Futures | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Bean Meal 01 | 3,079 | -9 | -0.29% | | Bean Meal 05 | 2,820 | 11 | 0.39% | | Bean Meal 09 | 3,023 | -8 | -0.26% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2,531 | -36 | -1.4% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2,406 | -14 | -0.58% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2,560 | 10 | 0.39% | | CBOT Yellow Soybean | 1,034 | 0 | 0% | | Offshore RMB | 7.1152 | -0.0025 | -0.04% | Spreads - Palm oil spreads: P 1 - 5 is 216 yuan/ton (up 12), P 5 - 9 is - 332 yuan/ton (up 74), P 9 - 1 is 116 yuan/ton (down 86) [5]. - Soybean oil - palm oil spreads: Y - P 01 is - 994 yuan/ton (down 6), Y - P 05 is - 1,088 yuan/ton (down 12), Y - P 09 is - 1,178 yuan/ton (up 6) [5]. - Bean meal spreads: M01 - 05 is 279 yuan/ton (up 11), M05 - 09 is - 222 yuan/ton (up 11), M09 - 01 is - 57 yuan/ton (down 22) [20][23]. - Rapeseed meal spreads: RM01 - 05 is 147 yuan/ton (up 19), RM05 - 09 is - 130 yuan/ton (up 30), RM09 - 01 is - 17 yuan/ton (down 49) [20][23].

Core Views - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures tumbled due to increased inventory to 220 million tons in the MPOB report and a surprise drop in the first 10-day export data, with short-term support at 4,400 ringgit and potential further decline if it breaks [3]. - Dalian palm oil futures declined following the drop in Malaysian palm oil, with short-term support at 9,200 yuan and strong support at 9,000 yuan, and it's in a 4-wave adjustment [3]. - The MPOB monthly report showed consecutive increases in Malaysian palm oil inventory and reduced exports in early September, and the approaching US soybean harvest and expected high yield pressured the CBOT soybean market and domestic soybean oil. The short-term support for the Dalian soybean oil 1-month contract is 8,200 yuan, and there's a chance of a rebound after the decline [4]. - The soybean meal market lacks clear themes, with the main contract oscillating between 3,030 - 3,080 yuan, and the spot price ranging from 2,950 - 3,200 yuan [15]. Oil Price Information Palm Oil | Name | Unit | Latest Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil 01 | Yuan/ton | 9,244 | -2.55% | | Palm Oil 05 | Yuan/ton | 9,040 | -2.44% | | Palm Oil 09 | Yuan/ton | 9,446 | -0.36% | | BMD Palm Oil Main | Ringgit/ton | 4,416 | -1.41% | | Guangzhou 24-Degree Palm Oil | Yuan/ton | 9,270 | -130 | | Guangzhou 24-Degree Basis | Yuan/ton | -86 | 20 | | POGO | US dollars/ton | 497.126 | -1.168 | | International毛豆 - Crude Palm | US dollars/ton | -46.35 | 0 | [6] Soybean Oil | Name | Unit | Latest Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Oil 01 | Yuan/ton | 8,256 | -0.29% | | Soybean Oil 05 | Yuan/ton | 7,964 | -0.07% | | Soybean Oil 09 | Yuan/ton | 8,262 | 0% | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main | US cents/pound | 50.39 | -1.96% | | Shandong First-Grade Soybean Oil Spot | Yuan/ton | 8,420 | -100 | | Shandong First-Grade Soybean Oil Basis | Yuan/ton | 112 | 28 | | BOHO (Weekly) | US dollars/barrel | 50.752 | -12.7168 | | Domestic First-Grade Soybean Oil - 24-Degree Palm Oil | Yuan/ton | -690 | -20 | [11] Oil Spread Information Month-to-Month and Variety Spreads | Spread | Unit | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P 1 - 5 | Yuan/ton | 220 | 8 | | P 5 - 9 | Yuan/ton | -214 | -148 | | P 9 - 1 | Yuan/ton | -6 | 140 | | Y 1 - 5 | Yuan/ton | 296 | 4 | | Y 5 - 9 | Yuan/ton | -342 | -46 | | Y 9 - 1 | Yuan/ton | 46 | 42 | | Y - P 01 | Yuan/ton | -1,078 | -28 | | Y - P 05 | Yuan/ton | -1,154 | -24 | | Y - P 09 | Yuan/ton | -1,026 | -126 | | Y/M 01 | - | 2.7343 | 0.1% | | Y/M 05 | - | 2.8971 | 0.17% | | Y/M 09 | - | 2.7892 | 0.11% | | OI 1 - 5 | Yuan/ton | 324 | 9 | | OI 5 - 9 | Yuan/ton | -453 | -43 | | OI 9 - 1 | Yuan/ton | 129 | 34 | | OI/RM 01 | - | 3.8631 | -0.15% | | OI/RM 05 | - | 3.9564 | -0.34% | | OI/RM 09 | - | 3.9137 | 1.76% | [5] Oilseed Futures Price | Name | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3,066 | -9 | -0.29% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2,798 | -2 | -0.07% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 3,031 | 0 | 0% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2,533 | -17 | -0.67% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2,405 | -3 | -0.12% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2,565 | 15 | 0.59% | | CBOT Yellow Soybean | 1,030.5 | 0 | 0% | | Offshore RMB | 7.1215 | -0.0012 | -0.02% | [16] Meal Spread Information | Spread | Price | Change | Spread | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 275 | 3 | RM01 - 05 | 142 | -2 | | M05 - 09 | -231 | -18 | RM05 - 09 | -142 | 42 | | M09 - 01 | -44 | 15 | RM09 - 01 | 0 | -40 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 2,980 | -20 | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | -75 | 6 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2,515 | 2 | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | -35 | -6 | | Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 485 | -2 | Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 525 | -14 | [17][19]

咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关责任的权力。所有本报告中使用的商标、 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The palm oil market has a strong expectation of inventory accumulation in the origin, but the export data is good, consumption is strong, and there are also the impacts of biodiesel policies. The U.S. soybean harvest is about to start, with high expected yields and a relatively loose global soybean supply, but the situation of China - U.S. trade negotiations needs attention. Rapeseed still has a high - yield expectation. Overall, the oil market is a mix of long and short factors, and further drivers are needed to guide prices [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary Futures Prices - Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9390.00 yuan/ton, a change of +22 yuan or +0.23% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8356.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 10.00 yuan or -0.12%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9739.00 yuan/ton, a change of +12.00 yuan or +0.12% [1] Spot Prices - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9380.00 yuan/ton, a change of +80.00 yuan or +0.86%, and the spot basis was P01 + - 10.00, a change of +58.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8510.00 yuan/ton, a change of +30.00 yuan/ton or +0.35%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 154.00, a change of +40.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9900.00 yuan/ton, a change of +20.00 yuan or +0.20%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 161.00, a change of +8.00 yuan [1] Recent Market Information - The C&F prices of U.S. Gulf, U.S. West, and Brazilian soybeans (October shipment) decreased by 3 dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day. The import soybean premium quotes for different regions (October shipment) remained unchanged. The C&F prices of Argentine soybean oil (October and December shipments) remained unchanged. The C&F quotes of Canadian rapeseed oil (October and December shipments) remained unchanged, while the C&F prices of Canadian rapeseeds (November and January shipments) decreased by 10 dollars/ton and 1 dollar/ton respectively [2] - According to the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from August 1 - 31 increased by 2.07%, with a 1.26% decrease in the Malay Peninsula, a 7.36% increase in Sabah, an 8.14% increase in Sarawak, and a 7.56% increase in East Malaysia. The estimated total palm oil production in Malaysia in August was 1.85 million tons [2] - This week, the international and domestic palm oil prices fluctuated downward, with the domestic decline greater than the international one. The price inversion of China's palm oil imports widened. The import CNF quotes of 24 - degree palm oil for October and November shipments decreased by 7 dollars/ton and 9 dollars/ton respectively, and the South China arrival duty - paid costs decreased by 70 yuan/ton and 90 yuan/ton respectively [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Oscillating weakly [2] - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: Weak [2] - **Glass**: Oscillating weakly [2] - **Soda Ash**: Oscillating [2] - **Stock Index Futures/Options (Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500)**: Oscillating; CSI 1000: Downward [2][4] - **Treasury Bonds (2 - year, 5 - year)**: Oscillating; 10 - year: Rebounding [4] - **Gold and Silver**: Oscillating strongly [4] - **Pulp**: Consolidating [6] - **Logs**: Weakly oscillating [6] - **Edible Oils (Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil)**: Oscillating [6] - **Meal (Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean No. 2)**: Oscillating weakly; Soybean No. 1: Oscillating weakly [6][7] - **Live Pigs**: Oscillating strongly [7] - **Rubber**: Oscillating [9] - **PX**: On - hold [9] - **PTA**: Oscillating [9] - **MEG**: On - hold [9] - **PR**: On - hold [9] - **PF**: On - hold [9] 2. Core Views - The steel industry's stable - growth policy from 2025 - 2026 does not restrict steel production, which boosts raw material sentiment. The short - term fundamentals of iron ore have limited contradictions and are expected to oscillate at high levels following finished products. The fundamentals of coking coal and coke are weakening, and the black sector is expected to oscillate weakly. The fundamentals of rebar are weak, and it is expected to run weakly. The glass market sentiment has cooled, and the short - term supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly [2]. - The stock index market is generally weak, and it is recommended to control risk preference and reduce long positions in stock indexes. The Shanghai property market's "Shanghai Six Measures" have had a positive effect, and the future property market transactions are expected to rise steadily. The bond market aims for stable and healthy development through the cooperation of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank [4]. - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting, and short - term data supports the rise in gold prices. The uncertainty of tariffs and concerns about the Fed's independence stimulate safe - haven funds to flow into gold, and gold is expected to oscillate strongly [4]. - The pulp market presents a pattern of increasing supply and demand, but the rising space of pulp prices may be limited due to over - capacity. The supply pressure of logs is not large, and the peak season expectation remains to be verified, with prices expected to run weakly. The raw material supply of edible oils is relatively loose, and they are expected to oscillate in the short term. The meal market is affected by factors such as China's soybean procurement and high supply, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - The supply of live pigs is affected by weight - loss strategies, and the demand is expected to increase with school openings. The price of live pigs is expected to rise slightly next week. The supply of rubber is affected by weather, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to run strongly in the short term. The PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets are affected by factors such as oil prices and supply - demand, with different trends [7][9]. 3. Summary by Industry Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: The stable - growth policy of the steel industry boosts raw material sentiment. The fundamentals have limited contradictions, and it is expected to oscillate at high levels following finished products. The "restricted production" in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region has little impact on iron ore demand. The global iron ore shipment has declined slightly, and there is no obvious inventory - building pressure under high port clearance [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The fundamentals are weakening, with continuous inventory accumulation and weakening downstream orders. The supply is increasing, and the demand is at a new low since the second quarter. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2]. - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: The fundamentals are weak. The supply will remain at a relatively high level, and the total demand is difficult to show an anti - seasonal performance. The inventory is accumulating, and the spot demand is weak. The rebar 2601 contract is expected to run weakly [2]. - **Glass**: The market sentiment has cooled, and the short - term supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly. The spot price in Hubei has improved slightly, and the key lies in the cold - repair path for the 01 contract. The long - term demand is difficult to recover significantly, and it is necessary to pay attention to the improvement of actual demand [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The market is generally weak, and it is recommended to control risk preference and reduce long positions in stock indexes. Different stock indexes have different trends, and sectors such as precious metals and power grids have capital inflows, while sectors such as diversified finance and aerospace and military industry have capital outflows [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond has declined, and the market interest rate has fluctuated. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [4]. - **Property Market**: The "Shanghai Six Measures" in the Shanghai property market have had a positive effect, and the future property market transactions are expected to rise steadily, which is expected to lead the recovery of the property market in first - and second - tier cities [4]. Precious Metals Industry - **Gold and Silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting, and short - term data supports the rise in gold prices. The uncertainty of tariffs and concerns about the Fed's independence stimulate safe - haven funds to flow into gold, and gold and silver are expected to oscillate strongly [4]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost supports pulp prices, but the demand improvement expectation remains to be verified. The market presents a pattern of increasing supply and demand, and pulp prices are expected to oscillate and rise, but the rising space may be limited [6]. - **Logs**: The supply pressure is not large, and the peak season expectation remains to be verified. The spot price is running weakly, and the delivery willingness is weak, with prices expected to run weakly [6]. Agricultural Products Industry - **Edible Oils**: The raw material supply is relatively loose, and the demand for industrial and high - end oil products is increasing. The inventory situation of different oils varies, and they are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. - **Meal**: Affected by factors such as China's soybean procurement and high supply, it is expected to oscillate weakly [6][7]. - **Live Pigs**: The supply is affected by weight - loss strategies, and the demand is expected to increase with school openings. The price is expected to rise slightly next week [7]. Soft Commodities and Polyester Industry - **Rubber**: The supply is affected by weather, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to run strongly in the short term, but the approaching military parade in early September may have an impact on downstream operations [9]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: The PX price follows oil price fluctuations, and the PTA supply - demand situation has improved. The MEG supply pressure is increasing, and the PR and PF markets are expected to run weakly [9].

Report Summary 1. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: Internationally, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are oscillating at a high level, facing resistance at 4,500 ringgit. After a brief adjustment and stabilization, supported by overall bullish fundamentals, the futures may approach 4,500 ringgit. After effectively breaking through and holding above 4,500 ringgit, with potential bullish factors such as limited inventory growth at the end of August and continued export growth in September, there is a chance for an upward trend. Domestically, the Dalian palm oil futures are also in a high - level consolidation. After several unsuccessful attempts to break through 9,500 yuan, it is expected to strengthen further with the support of the rebound in Malaysian palm oil. After breaking through and stabilizing above 9,500 yuan, it may follow the upward trend of Malaysian palm oil and could even hit new highs. A near - term weak and long - term strong view is maintained [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: The expected high yield of US soybeans is weighing on CBOT soybeans and soybean oil, affecting the domestic oil market. Currently, the domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient, but downstream consumption is increasing as traders stock up for the fourth quarter. The short - term trend of Dalian soybean oil is a narrow - range oscillation. The January contract will continue to oscillate around 8,300 yuan. After the adjustment, based on the rise of international vegetable oils and the start of domestic consumption, the price may rise to around 8,500 yuan [4]. - **Bean Meal**: In the spot market, as oil mills in North China and other regions fulfill contracts normally, trading is light at the beginning of the month, and traders' quotes are down 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The impact of this week's imported soybean auction on the spot market is limited. Traders tend to replenish stocks at low prices during the oscillation. Massive trading may not occur until the middle of the month. The short - term spot price will fluctuate between 3,000 - 3,200 yuan/ton [17]. 2. Price Information 2.1 Oil Price Spreads | Spread Type | Price | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | | P 1 - 5 | 246 yuan/ton | - 4 | | P 5 - 9 | - 204 yuan/ton | - 8 | | P 9 - 1 | - 42 yuan/ton | 12 | | Y - P 01 | - 1,066 yuan/ton | - 30 | | Y - P 05 | - 1,108 yuan/ton | - 28 | | Y - P 09 | - 958 yuan/ton | - 18 | | Y 1 - 5 | 288 yuan/ton | - 6 | | Y 5 - 9 | - 354 yuan/ton | - 18 | | Y 9 - 1 | 66 yuan/ton | 24 | | OI 1 - 5 | 169 yuan/ton | 3 | | OI 5 - 9 | - 353 yuan/ton | - 58 | | OI 9 - 1 | 184 yuan/ton | 55 | | Y/M 01 | 2.7397 | 0.23% | | Y/M 05 | 2.8712 | 0.32% | | Y/M 09 | 2.8017 | 0.32% | | OI/RM 01 | 3.9064 | 0.16% | | OI/RM 05 | 4.0088 | 0.1% | | OI/RM 09 | 3.8974 | - 0.31% | [5] 2.2 Palm Oil Spot and Futures Prices | Contract | Price | Daily Change (Rate) | | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil 01 | 9,368 yuan/ton | - 0.57% | | Palm Oil 05 | 9,148 yuan/ton | - 0.31% | | Palm Oil 09 | 9,346 yuan/ton | - 0.36% | | BMD Palm Oil Main Contract | 4,434 ringgit/ton | - 0.94% | | Guangzhou 24 - degree Palm Oil | 9,300 yuan/ton | - 80 | | Guangzhou 24 - degree Basis | - 42 yuan/ton | 32 | | POGO | 492.819 dollars/ton | - 1.168 | | International Soybean - Palm Oil Spread | - 26.73 dollars/ton | - 12.5 | [7][8] 2.3 Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Prices | Contract | Price | Daily Change (Rate) | | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Oil 01 | 8,366 yuan/ton | 0.52% | | Soybean Oil 05 | 8,070 yuan/ton | 0.39% | | Soybean Oil 09 | 8,454 yuan/ton | 0.47% | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main Contract | 52.5 cents/pound | 0.77% | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Spot | 8,490 yuan/ton | 70 | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Basis | 64 yuan/ton | - 8 | | BOHO (Weekly) | 56.202 dollars/barrel | - 9.3588 | | Domestic First - grade Soybean Oil - 24 - degree Palm Oil Spread | - 750 yuan/ton | - 70 | [13] 2.4 Oilseed Futures Prices | Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Bean Meal 01 | 3,066 | 16 | 0.52% | | Bean Meal 05 | 2,821 | 11 | 0.39% | | Bean Meal 09 | 3,020 | 14 | 0.47% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2,521 | 21 | 0.84% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2,406 | 12 | 0.5% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2,562 | 9 | 0.35% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1,040 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.1395 | 0.0036 | 0.05% | [18] 2.5 Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Spreads | Spread Type | Price | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 240 | 0 | | M05 - 09 | - 196 | - 6 | | M09 - 01 | - 44 | 6 | | RM01 - 05 | 106 | - 1 | | RM05 - 09 | - 159 | - 25 | | RM09 - 01 | 53 | 26 | | Bean Meal Rizhao Spot | 3,020 | 0 | | Bean Meal Rizhao Basis | - 30 | 4 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2,508 | - 8 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | 8 | 5 | | Bean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 512 | 8 | | Bean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 550 | 9 | [19][21]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views Palm Oil - International market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures were closed on Monday, and will test the support level in the range of 4,350 - 4,400 ringgit after resuming trading on Tuesday, which is also the 20 - day moving average. After gradually bottoming out, supported by the slowdown in production growth and the increase in exports, crude palm oil futures have the opportunity to stop falling and rebound. With the overall bullish fundamentals, crude palm oil futures may return to 4,500 ringgit, and if they effectively stand above 4,500 ringgit, there may be a possibility of a rising trend. Overall, the view is that the near - term is weak and the long - term is strong, and attention should be paid to the support and the gain or loss of the 20 - day moving average [3] - Domestic market: Dalian palm oil futures are in a high - level correction, with the short - term testing the support of the 20 - day moving average around 9,200 yuan. If they can stop falling and stabilize here, driven by the rebound of Malaysian palm oil, Dalian palm oil futures may follow and start a rising trend, with the possibility of approaching 9,500 yuan. If they effectively stand above 9,500 yuan, there may be a new high. Similarly, the view is that the near - term is weak and the long - term is strong, and attention should be paid to whether they can stop falling effectively at the 20 - day moving average [3] Soybean Oil - CBOT soybean futures and BMD palm oil futures were closed. Dalian soybean oil is greatly affected by domestic fundamentals. With the start of schools, the procurement from school canteens and surrounding restaurants supports the market. However, the sufficient supply of Brazilian soybeans and the high operating rate of domestic factories create a situation of both bullish and bearish factors. Today, the January contract of Dalian soybean oil fluctuated narrowly above 8,300 yuan. From the international perspective, as the US soybean harvest is approaching and the Sino - US negotiations are under focus, if the negotiation result is poor, CBOT soybeans and soybean oil may fall further, dragging down Dalian soybean oil. The January contract may fall below 8,300 yuan to 8,200 yuan. After this decline, the expected increase in demand will boost the price again. If the international related varieties do not continue to fall, Dalian soybean oil will rise again after a period of volatile adjustment [4] Bean Meal - Spot market: The near - term basis has fully shifted to the January contract. The fixed - price of oil mills has increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton following the market, and some traders are strongly willing to hold up prices. Since the concentrated delivery and inventory transfer of oil mills at the end of August have just ended and the September contract has entered the execution period, feed enterprises have sufficient inventory, and the market trading volume is average. Most buyers prefer to purchase the long - term contracts from January to May 2026 at low prices. The short - term spot price center has moved up, and it is expected to operate in the range of 3,000 - 3,200 yuan/ton [16] Group 3: Summary by Directory Oil Price and Spread - **Oil monthly and inter - variety spreads**: P 1 - 5 is 238 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan; Y - P 01 is - 958 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan; etc. [5] - **Palm oil futures and spot daily prices**: Palm oil 01 is 9,384 yuan/ton, up 0.73%; BMD palm oil main contract is 4,380 ringgit/ton, down 1.55%; etc. [7] - **Soybean oil futures and spot daily prices**: Soybean oil 01 is 8,348 yuan/ton, down 0.03%; CBOT soybean oil main contract is 52.1 cents/pound, down 0.52%; etc. [13] Oilseed Futures Price - **Oilseed futures prices**: Bean meal 01 closed at 3,054, down 1, or - 0.03%; CBOT yellow soybeans closed at 1,053, up 4.75, or 0.45%; etc. [17] - **Bean and rapeseed meal spreads**: M01 - 05 spread is 235, unchanged; RM01 - 05 spread is 89, up 14; etc. [18] Other Information - **International soybean crushing profit**: The report shows the historical data of international soybean crushing profit and Chinese imported rapeseed crushing profit [32]