Core Viewpoint - Modern Dairy (01117) reported a revenue of 6.073 billion yuan for the six months ending June 30, 2025, with a loss of 984 million yuan, resulting in a loss per share of 0.1167 yuan [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a net cash inflow from operating activities of 490 million yuan, an increase of 23.3% compared to the same period in 2024, enhancing its core competitiveness and resilience against industry cycles [1] - The total loss for the period was 984 million yuan, indicating challenges in profitability despite revenue growth [1] Group 2: Business Strategy and Operations - The company aims to become a global leader in the dairy industry through a vision of "layout of the industrial chain, digital innovation," focusing on raw milk production as its core business [1] - The business model encompasses a full value chain in the dairy industry, including seed research and development, pasture planting, feed, dairy cattle breeding, and a digital platform for the industry chain [1] Group 3: Livestock and Production Metrics - As of June 30, 2025, the company raised 472,500 dairy cows, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, with the proportion of mature dairy cows at 54.1%, up 3.5 percentage points [1] - The average annualized yield per mature dairy cow reached 13.2 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, maintaining a leading position in the industry [1] - The total raw milk production for the period was 1.661 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.6% [1]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [82]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has shown a weekly increase of 3.72%, but it underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [13][14]. - The report highlights that the pig farming industry is under pressure with prices declining, but there is potential for a mid-term recovery if supply is effectively managed [3][25]. - Poultry farming is experiencing weak demand, leading to price adjustments, but there is optimism for recovery as consumer demand improves [4][40]. - The beef and dairy sectors are seeing a gradual increase in prices, with expectations of a new cycle in beef production [5][46]. - The planting industry is stabilizing, with potential improvements if there are significant reductions in grain production due to external factors [6][52]. - Feed prices are stabilizing, and the aquaculture sector is showing signs of recovery in pricing [68][73]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2941.27 points, with a weekly increase of 3.72%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 3.49% [13][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average price of commodity pigs is 13.73 yuan/kg, with a weekly decrease of 0.22%. The average weight of pigs at slaughter is 127.98 kg, showing a slight increase [23][24]. - The report anticipates continued pressure on pig prices in the short term, but potential for recovery if production capacity is managed [3][25]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price of white feather chickens is 7.33 yuan/kg, with a weekly increase of 1.81%. The profitability of chicken farming is under pressure but may improve with better consumer demand [34][40]. 2.3 Livestock - The price of live cattle in Shandong is 26.96 yuan/kg, reflecting a 0.60% increase. The dairy sector is expected to stabilize as production capacity decreases [5][46]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices are stable at 2311.43 yuan/ton, while soybean prices remain unchanged. The planting sector is stabilizing, with potential improvements if grain production decreases significantly [51][52]. 2.5 Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices for fattening pigs are stable at 3.34 yuan/kg. Aquaculture prices are showing signs of recovery, with various fish prices remaining stable [68][73].

Market Overview - The three major indices showed mixed results on August 21, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.13% to close at 3771.10 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.06% to 11919.76 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.47% to 2595.47 points [2] - The total trading volume in the two markets was 242.35 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 15.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] Market Performance - The market experienced fluctuations throughout the day, with core broad-based indices showing more gains than losses. Micro-cap stocks and the CSI A50 led the gains, while the Northbound 50 and the Sci-Tech 100 faced declines [2] - The A-share market saw a diverse range of sector performances, with over 3000 stocks declining overall [3] Sector Analysis - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors saw an increase of 1.5%, while the oil and petrochemical sector rose by 1.4%. Conversely, the machinery and electrical equipment sectors experienced declines [4][5] - The banking sector showed resilience with a 0.6% increase, while the electronic and defense industries faced declines of 0.7% and 0.7%, respectively [5] Concept Themes - Notable increases were observed in sectors such as combustible ice (up 3.1%), digital currency (up 2.4%), and cross-border payment (CIPS) (up 2.2%). In contrast, sectors like rare earth permanent magnets and PCB concepts saw declines of 2.1% [6] Hot Industry - Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The sector's positive performance is attributed to strong oilseed prices and an expected acceleration in beef prices during peak season. Analysts are optimistic about a reversal in the domestic livestock cycle and growth in pet consumption [7] - Key insights include expectations for a rebound in the beef and raw milk markets, continued growth in pet consumption, and a favorable outlook for leading low-valuation stocks in the industry [7]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that the beef and dairy industries are entering a phase of supply-demand balance due to reduced supply pressures and improved demand conditions in the second half of 2025 [1][2]. Beef Industry Insights - The beef price has begun to reverse from low levels, with a projected increase in 2025 driven by supply reduction and decreased import pressures. Since the beginning of 2025, beef and live cattle prices have risen approximately 10% and 20% respectively from previous lows [1][4]. - The supply of beef cattle is expected to decrease due to ongoing losses in ranching, with a reported 2.1% year-on-year decline in national cattle inventory as of Q2 2025, totaling 99.92 million heads [4]. - The reduction in imported beef, which saw a 9.5% year-on-year decline in the first half of 2025, is anticipated to further support domestic beef prices [4]. Dairy Industry Insights - The price of raw milk has continued to decline, but a supply-demand balance is expected in the second half of 2025, aided by reduced dairy cow restocking and a recovery in demand [2]. - The implementation of a fertility subsidy policy in July 2025 is expected to boost dairy product consumption, alongside the introduction of new national standards for UHT milk, which will limit the use of reconstituted milk [2]. - The dairy industry is projected to see a strong upward trend in prices in 2026 due to the fading effects of previous expansion and a reduction in lactating cow restocking [2]. Profitability and Market Dynamics - The cyclical nature of the meat and dairy industries is expected to enhance the profitability of leading agricultural companies. A hypothetical 10% to 20% increase in milk prices could improve the gross margin of leading dairy companies by 6 to 10 percentage points [5]. - The valuation of breeding cattle and income from culling are expected to increase with a 20% to 40% rise in cattle prices, potentially adding 200 to 400 million yuan to the total income of leading ranching companies [5]. - Companies involved in both beef and dairy sectors, such as Aoyuan Group and China Shengmu, are likely to benefit directly from the recovery in live cattle prices and the reversal of milk prices [5].

Group 1 - The State Council approved the "Development Plan for Open Innovation of the Biopharmaceutical Industry Chain in the China (Jiangsu) Pilot Free Trade Zone," aiming to enhance the global competitiveness of the biopharmaceutical sector [2] - In July, the total electricity consumption in China reached 10,226 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%, with significant growth in the first industry at 20.2% [2] - The National Energy Administration reported that from January to July, total electricity consumption accumulated to 58,633 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.5% [2] Group 2 - The National Health Commission released guidelines to improve the ear and hearing health service system, emphasizing the establishment of a collaborative network among various healthcare institutions [3] - The pork market has seen a slight decline in prices due to increased supply, with the national average pig-to-grain price dropping below 6:1, entering a warning zone [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to conduct central frozen pork reserve storage to stabilize the pork market [3] Group 3 - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange will pilot green foreign debt business in 16 provinces and cities, encouraging non-financial enterprises to use cross-border financing for green projects [4] - The U.S. and EU have reached an agreement on a trade framework covering various sectors, including agriculture, automotive, and digital trade [4] Group 4 - Kuaishou reported a total revenue of 35 billion yuan in Q2, with an adjusted net profit of 5.6 billion yuan [6] - Digital Vision achieved a net profit of 1.67 million yuan in the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year increase of 2,747.64% [6] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) saw a 39.8% decline in net profit for the first half of the year and plans to distribute a semi-annual cash dividend of 0.088 yuan per share [6] Group 5 - The dairy industry is expected to experience strong profit elasticity due to the ongoing decline in raw milk prices and a potential recovery in beef and live cattle prices [7] - The gaming industry in China showed steady growth in July, driven by new and mature products, indicating a robust growth momentum [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the ongoing decline in raw milk prices and anticipates a faster reduction in livestock inventory in 25H2, which is expected to benefit beef and live cattle prices due to supply reduction and diminished import impacts, indicating strong profit elasticity for livestock companies amid the resonance of meat and dairy cycles [1][2]. Summary by Sections Raw Milk Prices and Supply-Demand Balance - Raw milk prices continue to decline, with expectations for supply-demand balance in 25H2. The financial pressure on farms during the silage procurement season in August-September is likely to accelerate the reduction of social inventory. The industry is expected to enter a supply-demand balance channel due to reduced production from heat stress and the effects of previous heifer inventory reductions, alongside a seasonal demand increase [2][3]. Beef and Live Cattle Price Trends - Beef prices are expected to enter an upward cycle in 25, following a low point in 2023. The decline in beef prices from 2023 was primarily due to low-priced imported beef squeezing demand and increased domestic production capacity. In 25, the reduction in supply and diminished import impacts are anticipated to lead to a price rebound, with beef and live cattle prices rising approximately 10% and 20% from previous lows, respectively [3][4]. Profit Elasticity in Livestock Companies - The resonance of meat and dairy cycles is expected to enhance profit elasticity for livestock companies. The gross profit margin is projected to improve significantly due to rising milk prices and reduced unit costs. If sales milk prices increase by 10% or 20%, leading dairy companies could see gross margin improvements of over 6 percentage points or 10 percentage points, respectively. Additionally, the fair value of breeding cows is expected to benefit from the rebound in milk prices and lower feeding costs [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that raw milk prices continue to decline, and there is potential for supply-demand balance in H2 2025 due to accelerated herd reduction and improved demand during peak seasons [2][3] - The report suggests that the dairy industry is likely to see a price increase in 2026, driven by reduced dairy cow replenishment and a recovery in demand, supported by new policies aimed at boosting dairy consumption [2][3] - The beef market is expected to enter an upward cycle in 2025, as low beef prices have started to reverse, benefiting from reduced supply and diminished import pressures [3][4] Group 2 - The report highlights strong profit elasticity for livestock companies due to the resonance of meat and milk cycles, with potential improvements in gross margins driven by rising milk prices and cost reductions [4] - The valuation of breeding cows and income from culling are expected to increase with rising beef prices, which could enhance total revenue for leading livestock companies [4] - Companies like YouRan Dairy and Modern Farming are recommended for investment, while China Shengmu and Aoyuan Group are noted as companies to watch due to their involvement in the livestock sector [1][4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that raw milk prices continue to decline, and by the second half of 2025, supply and demand are expected to balance, benefiting the dairy industry [1] - In the procurement season of August-September, the financial pressure on farms is significant, leading to an accelerated reduction in livestock numbers [1] - The implementation of the fertility subsidy policy in July 2025 is expected to boost dairy product consumption demand [1] Group 2 - Beef prices are reversing from low levels, entering an upward cycle in 2025 due to reduced supply and diminished import impacts [2] - The beef market has experienced three cycles, with the current cycle characterized by a decline in beef prices since 2023, primarily due to low-priced imported beef and increased domestic production [2] - The national cattle inventory decreased by 2.1% year-on-year to 99.92 million heads in Q2 2025, indicating a tightening supply [2] Group 3 - The resonance of the meat and dairy cycles provides strong profit elasticity for livestock companies, with potential gross margin improvements of 6% to 10% for leading dairy firms if milk prices increase by 10% to 20% [3] - The valuation of breeding cows and income from culling are expected to improve with a 20% to 40% increase in beef prices, potentially adding 200 million to 400 million yuan to total income for leading livestock companies [3] - Companies involved in beef operations, such as Australia Asia Group and China Shengmu, are likely to benefit directly from the rebound in live cattle prices [3]

中国经济网北京8月20日讯禾丰股份（603609）(603609.SH)昨日晚间披露《股东减持股份计划公告》。 根据公告，股东、监事会主席王凤久计划减持公司股份不超过11,990,000股，即不超过公司总股本的 1.3140%，不超过其持有公司股份总数的25%；股东、董事邵彩梅计划减持公司股份不超过8,000,000 股，即不超过公司总股本的0.8767%，不超过其持有公司股份总数的25%。上述股东将通过大宗交易、 集中竞价交易等上海证券交易所认定的方式减持公司股份，减持期间为自公告披露之日起十五个交易日 后的三个月内，即自2025年9月11日至2025年12月10日。合计减持数量不超过19,990,000股，合计减持比 例不超过公司总股本的2.1907%。 本次减持计划实施不会导致上市公司控制权发生变更。 2019年公司非公开发行股票募集资金。经中国证券监督管理委员会《关于核准辽宁禾丰牧业股份有限公 司非公开发行股票的批复》(证监许可[2018]1742号)核准，公司(原名辽宁禾丰牧业股份有限公司)向8名 特定投资者非公开发行股票76,552,927股，每股面值1.00元，每股发行价格为10.16元，募集资 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the agricultural sector, but it suggests a cautious outlook with potential for recovery in specific segments [7]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index underperformed compared to major indices, indicating a challenging environment for the industry [13]. - The report highlights that while short-term pressures exist, there are signs of stabilization in various segments, particularly in pig farming and planting chains [19][38]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2835.81 points, down 0.14% week-on-week, while major indices like the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Composite saw gains of 1.70% and 3.63% respectively [13][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average price of commodity pigs was 13.76 yuan/kg, up 0.36% week-on-week, while the average weight of pigs at slaughter was 127.82 kg, a slight increase [19][20]. - The report indicates that the industry is facing pressure with weak demand leading to increased slaughtering activity, and some producers are beginning to cut back on production due to losses [20]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price of white feather chickens was 7.20 yuan/kg, up 0.84% week-on-week, while the price of broiler chickens was 14.10 yuan/kg, up 1.44% [30]. - The report notes that while prices are under pressure, there is potential for recovery if consumer demand improves [30]. 2.3 Livestock - The price of live cattle in Shandong was 26.80 yuan/kg, up 0.37% week-on-week, indicating a gradual recovery in the beef market [35]. - The report anticipates that the dairy sector may stabilize in the second half of 2025 as supply constraints begin to ease [35]. 2.4 Planting Chain - Domestic corn prices were stable at 2,318.57 yuan/ton, while soybean prices increased by 0.67% to 3,952.63 yuan/ton [38]. - The report suggests that if there are significant reductions in grain production, the planting sector could see improved conditions [39]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices remained stable, with pig feed at 3.34 yuan/kg and poultry feed at 3.45 yuan/kg, reflecting a stable cost environment [55]. - Aquaculture prices showed stability, with various fish prices remaining unchanged, indicating a steady market [55].