2024年，望江县与广西四野牧业公司签约岭南肉牛产业集群项目，总投资20.08亿元，系安庆市近年来 引进的投资规模最大的农业产业项目。该项目采取"政府+企业+村集体+农户"合作模式，构建从"秸秆 回收—饲料加工—肉牛养殖—粪污综合利用—贸易屠宰"的全链条产业体系，建设内容覆盖秸秆饲料化 利用、核心育种场、有机肥加工、交易市场及屠宰加工等环节。 （来源：安庆新闻网） 转自：安庆新闻网 "哞、哞……"12月23日，在望江县一家牧业有限公司养殖场内，数百头华西牛正悠闲进食，技术人员穿 梭其间，细致观察牛群生长状况。抬头望去，牛棚屋顶上一排排光伏板整齐铺设，悄然将阳光转化为绿 色电能。 "目前牛棚光伏面积已达45亩。自并网发电以来，实现了'板上发电、板下养殖'，既不影响牲畜生长， 又节约了棚舍建设成本上千万元，真正做到了光伏与农业的双赢。"公司负责人吴丹介绍。 与传统养殖不同，这里的养殖环境令人眼前一亮。走近牛棚，几乎闻不到异味。吴丹介绍，这得益于生 态喂养与微生物粪污处理技术的结合："我们以秸秆、玉米等草料为主，从源头减少臭味产生;同时定期 喷洒益生菌，不仅能除臭，还可促进粪污发酵为有机肥，实现清洁生产。" 该项目 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月25日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-12-24 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3940.94 | 13486.41 | 4634.05 | 14415.35 | 3911.33 | 1352.12 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.53 | 0.87 | 0.28 | 1.15 | 1.21 | 0.90 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 7739.28 | 11063.39 | 4063.75 | 3992.53 | 5025.69 | 510.88 | 【常规内容】 宏观与策略 策略快评:国信资配体系概览-低利率时代资产配置攻略 行业与公司 电子行业周报：电子上游通胀趋势延续，业绩预告期继续推荐存力+算力 农业行业快评:牧业大周期更新点评-重视牧业大周期反转，肉奶联动有 望打开成长空间 滔搏(06110.HK) 海外公司快评:三季度流水下滑高单位数，折扣同比加 深幅度 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月23日 2025年12月24日 牧业大周期更新点评 重视牧业大周期反转，肉奶联动有望打开成长空间 |  | 行业研究·行业快评 | | 农林牧渔  | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 鲁家瑞 | 021-61761016 | lujiarui@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520110002 | | 证券分析师： | 李瑞楠 | 021-60893308 | liruinan@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523030001 | | 证券分析师： | 江海航 | | jianghaihang@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524070003 | 事项： 据农业农村部统计，截至 2025 年 12 月 18 日，国内主产区牛肉均价为 65.73 元/kg，较年初低点累计上涨 16%；主产区生鲜乳均价为 3.02 元/kg，较年初累计下跌约 3%；肉奶比（牛肉价格/生鲜乳价格）已接近 22，创历史新高。 国信农业观点：1） ...

Macro and Strategy - Silver prices have reached historical highs, driven by its dual industrial and financial attributes, with over 60% of silver used in industrial applications as of December 2025 [6][7] - The recent surge in silver prices was triggered by significant physical deliveries at the New York COMEX, with registered inventories dropping over 70% from their peak in 2020 [6] - Long-term demand for silver is expected to grow due to industrial applications in solar energy, AI, and electric vehicles, alongside continued global monetary easing [6] Industry and Company - The agricultural sector is witnessing a bullish trend in livestock prices, particularly for beef and milk, with expectations of a cyclical recovery in the meat and dairy markets [24][26] - The price of live pigs has increased to 11.57 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 2.03%, while beef prices are also on an upward trajectory [24][26] - The media and internet industry has shown resilience, with a 0.54% increase in the sector, outperforming major indices, driven by upcoming IPOs and strong box office performances from films like "Avatar 3" [27][28] - The copper industry is facing a significant shift as long-term processing fees for copper concentrate have been set to zero, indicating a potential improvement in the industry structure [31] - The home appliance sector is experiencing a downturn, with retail sales down 19% year-on-year in November, although there are signs of recovery in exports for certain categories like refrigerators and washing machines [32][33]

公开资料显示，优然牧业是国内最大的原奶供应商，现拥有100座牧场、饲养约62万头奶牛，2024年原 奶产量约374万吨，占全国总产量的12.1%。公司在产业上游领先布局，是中国最大的反刍动物饲料提 供商，子公司赛科星为国内最大奶牛育种企业。今年上半年，公司原奶平均饲料成本为1.91元/公斤， 成母牛单产达12.9吨，为行业领先水平。 本文源自：智通财经网 智通财经获悉，优然牧业(09858)涨超7%，盘中高见4.91港元刷新年内新高。截至发稿，涨7.73%，报 4.88港元，成交额1.53亿港元。 消息面上，国金证券研报指出，散奶价格近期已经回升至3元/公斤左右，较高的散奶价格使得行业去化 速率放缓，但是在行业资金压力大&持续亏损的背景下，行业产能有望持续去化。该行预计随着供给端 产能去化的逐步传导，原奶价格在明年有望企稳回升；肉牛方面近期犊牛与活牛价格已经出现上涨，预 计新一轮肉牛周期有望开启，板块景气度有望稳健向上，重视肉奶共振。 ...

公开资料显示，优然牧业是国内最大的原奶供应商，现拥有100座牧场、饲养约62万头奶牛，2024年原 奶产量约374万吨，占全国总产量的12.1%。公司在产业上游领先布局，是中国最大的反刍动物饲料提 供商，子公司赛科星为国内最大奶牛育种企业。今年上半年，公司原奶平均饲料成本为1.91元/公斤， 成母牛单产达12.9吨，为行业领先水平。 优然牧业(09858)涨超7%，盘中高见4.91港元刷新年内新高。截至发稿，涨7.73%，报4.88港元，成交额 1.53亿港元。 消息面上，国金证券研报指出，散奶价格近期已经回升至3元/公斤左右，较高的散奶价格使得行业去化 速率放缓，但是在行业资金压力大&持续亏损的背景下，行业产能有望持续去化。该行预计随着供给端 产能去化的逐步传导，原奶价格在明年有望企稳回升；肉牛方面近期犊牛与活牛价格已经出现上涨，预 计新一轮肉牛周期有望开启，板块景气度有望稳健向上，重视肉奶共振。 ...

消息面上，国金证券研报指出，散奶价格近期已经回升至3元/公斤左右，较高的散奶价格使得行业去化 速率放缓，但是在行业资金压力大&持续亏损的背景下，行业产能有望持续去化。该行预计随着供给端 产能去化的逐步传导，原奶价格在明年有望企稳回升；肉牛方面近期犊牛与活牛价格已经出现上涨，预 计新一轮肉牛周期有望开启，板块景气度有望稳健向上，重视肉奶共振。 公开资料显示，优然牧业是国内最大的原奶供应商，现拥有100座牧场、饲养约62万头奶牛，2024年原 奶产量约374万吨，占全国总产量的12.1%。公司在产业上游领先布局，是中国最大的反刍动物饲料提 供商，子公司赛科星为国内最大奶牛育种企业。今年上半年，公司原奶平均饲料成本为1.91元/公斤， 成母牛单产达12.9吨，为行业领先水平。 智通财经APP获悉，优然牧业(09858)涨超7%，盘中高见4.91港元刷新年内新高。截至发稿，涨7.73%， 报4.88港元，成交额1.53亿港元。 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月21日 农产品研究跟踪系列报告（187） 优于大市 牧业产能维持去化，看好肉奶周期共振反转 鸡蛋：在产父母代存栏维持增长，中期供给压力较大。12 月 19 日，鸡蛋主 产区价格 3.07 元/斤，周环比-0.65%，同比-5.98%。 周度农产品跟踪：牛价有望持续上涨，反内卷支撑中长期生猪价格。 生猪：行业反内卷有望支撑猪价中长期表现。12 月 19 日生猪价格 11.57 元/ 公斤，周环比+2.03%；7kg 仔猪价格约 218.57 元/头，周环比-0.43%。 白鸡：供给小幅增加，关注旺季消费修复。12 月 19 日，鸡苗价格 3.37 元/ 羽，周环比-0.30%；毛鸡价格 7.28 元/公斤，周环比+0.55%。 黄鸡：供给维持底部，有望率先受益内需改善。12 月 18 日浙江快大三黄鸡/ 青 脚 麻 鸡 / 雪 山 草 鸡 斤 价 分 别 为 5.0/5.9/7.5 元 ， 周 环 比 分 别 +8.70%/+5.36%/-8.54%。 肉牛：新一轮牛价上涨开启，看好牛周期反转上行。12 月 12 日，国内育肥 公牛出栏价为 25.40 元/kg，环比+0.79 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [9]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has shown a slight increase of 0.79% week-on-week, but it has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [13]. - The pig farming industry is currently facing a downward price trend, with an average pig price of 11.58 yuan/kg, indicating ongoing losses across the sector [22][23]. - Poultry farming is experiencing a stabilization at the bottom of the price cycle, with white feather chicken prices at 7.35 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight recovery in profits [29]. - The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, with live cattle prices in Shandong at 26.68 yuan/kg [36]. - The planting industry is witnessing a tightening supply-demand situation, with corn prices rising to 2244.29 yuan/ton, indicating potential for price increases [41][42]. - Feed prices have stabilized, with pig feed at 3.33 yuan/kg, while aquatic product prices are showing upward trends [55]. Summary by Sections 1. Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at market is 130.18 kg, with ongoing losses in the industry prompting a reduction in production capacity [23][22]. - The report anticipates further price declines in the short term, but a potential recovery in the medium to long term due to improved profit margins for leading companies [23][22]. 2. Poultry Farming - White feather chicken prices are under pressure, while yellow feather chicken prices are showing resilience due to improved demand and reduced supply [29]. - The overall profitability in poultry farming is expected to improve as consumer demand recovers [29]. 3. Livestock - The beef market is poised for price increases, supported by a seasonal demand surge and reduced supply from imports [36]. - Dairy prices are stabilizing, with average purchase prices for raw milk at 3.02 yuan/kg, indicating a potential for recovery in the dairy sector [39]. 4. Planting Industry - Corn prices are on the rise, with a current price of 2244.29 yuan/ton, reflecting a tightening supply situation [41]. - The report highlights the potential for improved conditions in the planting sector if there are significant reductions in crop yields due to adverse weather [42]. 5. Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices have stabilized, with pig feed at 3.33 yuan/kg, while aquatic product prices are trending upwards, particularly for shrimp and fish [55][60].

Core Insights - Modern Dairy has been awarded the CDP management level rating for the third time, highlighting its leadership in sustainable practices within the global dairy industry [1] - The CDP has gathered over 640 signatories representing approximately $127 trillion in assets, with nearly 25,000 companies disclosing environmental impact data [1] Climate Change - The company has established clear carbon reduction targets and developed a comprehensive carbon management system that spans the entire production cycle, from feed cultivation to waste treatment [2] - Modern Dairy's biogas generation has exceeded 100 million kilowatt-hours annually, with renewable energy usage accounting for nearly 60% [2] - The "full lifecycle low-carbon ranch" project has received multiple recognitions, including from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs [2] Water Security - Efficient water resource management is a key component of the company's sustainability strategy, with significant water-saving measures implemented across various business units [4] - The company has achieved a 39% increase in water use efficiency in dairy farming through real-time data management [4] - Approximately 9.78 million cubic meters of wastewater are recycled annually, demonstrating the company's commitment to reducing environmental impact [4] Forest Protection - Modern Dairy aims to achieve a "zero deforestation" goal by 2030, actively managing forest risk in its supply chain [6] - In 2024, the company plans to source 42,000 tons of zero-deforestation or sustainably certified soybean meal, representing 13% of its total soybean meal procurement [6] - The company emphasizes traceability in its supply chain and collaborates with key suppliers to implement deforestation-free procurement initiatives [6] Sustainable Development Philosophy - The company adheres to a "coexistence with nature" philosophy and aims to integrate commercial growth with ecological value through its "FRESH" strategy [6] - Modern Dairy is committed to leading the industry towards a green and low-carbon development model, contributing to high-quality growth and sustainable prosperity in global dairy [6]