Core Insights - The 8th China International Import Expo (CIIE) showcases strong international partnerships, particularly highlighting the collaboration between Shandong enterprises and global companies, resulting in significant procurement agreements and investments [1][2][3]. Group 1: International Collaborations - Dow Chemical and Hisense Group reaffirmed their 20-year partnership by signing a procurement agreement at the expo, marking their sixth collaboration at the event [2]. - Jinan Weirkang Industrial Group secured four orders totaling $1.3 billion during the expo, emphasizing their rigorous selection process for international suppliers [2]. - Shandong Heavy Industry showcased its global partnerships with companies like Italy's FPT, France's Baudouin, and Germany's Linde, highlighting the presence of high-end equipment and intelligent systems [3]. Group 2: Investment and Growth - AstraZeneca announced an additional investment of approximately $136 million to enhance the production capacity of inhalation aerosol products in Shandong, addressing the needs of respiratory disease patients [3]. - Orix Group has accelerated its investment in Shandong, increasing its capital in Qingdao by 1 billion RMB, reflecting confidence in the region's industrial foundation and government efficiency [4]. Group 3: Cultural and Economic Exchange - The establishment of the "Hungary House" in Jinan aims to facilitate cooperation between Chinese and Hungarian enterprises, with over 20 companies from Hungary looking to enter the Chinese market [5][6]. - The initiative led by Qiao Chao, a Shandong native in Hungary, focuses on creating a technology bridge between China and Central Europe, promoting mutual development [6].

金融工程 | 证券研究报告 — 周报 2025 年 11 月 7 日 中银量化多策略行业轮动 周报 – 20251106 当前（2025 年 11 月 6 日）中银多策略行业配置系统仓位：非银行金融 （ 10.8%） 、 交 通 运 输 （ 10.1%） 、 基 础 化 工 （ 9.7%） 、 食 品 饮 料 （7.6%）、银行（6.2%）、通信（6.0%）、钢铁（5.9%）、电力设备及 新能源（5.1%）、家电（4.3%）、煤炭（4.1%）、纺织服装（4.0%）、 综 合 （ 4.0% ） 、 国 防 军 工 （ 3.2% ） 、 农 林 牧 渔 （ 3.2% ） 、 医 药 （3.2%）、有色金属（3.0%）、综合金融（3.0%）、机械（3.0%）、电 力及公用事业（1.2%）、石油石化（1.2%）、建筑（1.2%）。 相关研究报告 《中银证券量化行业轮动系列（七）：如何把 握市场"未证伪情绪"构建行业动量策略》 20220917 《中银证券量化行业轮动系列（八）："估值泡 沫保护"的高景气行业轮动策略》20221018 《中银证券宏观基本面行业轮动新框架：对传 统自上而下资产配置困境的破局》202305 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2][17] Core Insights - The report highlights the importance of deepening the comprehensive reform of investment and financing, enhancing the core competitiveness of China's capital market, and better serving the development of the real economy. Key focus areas include advancing sector reforms, improving the quality of listed companies, expanding high-level institutional openness, and strengthening investor protection [3][4][5]. Summary by Sections Sector Reforms - The report emphasizes the need to deepen sector reforms to enhance the inclusiveness and coverage of the multi-tiered market system. This includes the implementation of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, reforming the listing standards for the Growth Enterprise Market, and improving the New Third Board's listing, information disclosure, and trading systems [4]. Quality of Listed Companies - Continuous improvement in the quality of listed companies is essential. The report suggests introducing a refinancing framework and expanding channels for mergers and acquisitions to promote the growth of listed companies. It also advocates for better corporate governance and increased shareholder returns through dividends, buybacks, and shareholdings [4]. Institutional Openness - The report calls for a steady expansion of high-level institutional openness, providing a transparent and efficient environment for foreign investors. This includes optimizing the connectivity mechanisms to improve market liquidity and introduce advanced investment concepts and products from abroad [4]. Investor Protection - Strengthening investor protection is highlighted as a priority, focusing on combating financial fraud, market manipulation, and insider trading. The report aims to create a fair trading environment through enhanced protection during the issuance, listing, and delisting processes [4]. Market Environment - The report notes that the ongoing reforms and innovations in the capital market are expected to optimize the market environment, enhance overall investment value, and attract both domestic and foreign capital. This is particularly important in the context of the changing U.S.-China trade relations [5]. Industry Performance Metrics - The non-bank financial sector comprises 79 companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 78,922.09 billion and a circulating market value of about 62,149.48 billion. The average price-to-earnings ratio for the industry stands at 13.19 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Q4 style rotation model indicates signals for small-cap and growth stocks, with recommended sectors including communication, electric equipment, and renewable energy for November [1][2]. Group 1: Style Rotation Model - The Q4 style rotation model has issued signals favoring small-cap stocks, with a comprehensive score of -1 as of September 30, 2025 [3]. - The value-growth style rotation model also shows a preference for growth stocks, with a comprehensive score of -3 for Q4 2025 [4]. Group 2: Industry Rotation Insights - For October, the composite factor strategy yielded an excess return of -0.69%, while the single-factor multi-strategy had an excess return of -0.93% [4]. - In November, the single-factor multi-strategy recommends bullish sectors including media, communication, electronics, non-bank financials, electric equipment, and renewable energy [4]. - The composite factor strategy suggests bullish sectors such as communication, computer, electric and utility services, media, electric equipment, and renewable energy [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [44]. Core Insights - Insurance capital continues to increase its allocation towards stocks and bonds, with a total investment balance reaching 36.23 trillion yuan as of the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.4% [4]. - The allocation of insurance capital is primarily directed towards bonds (51.1%), followed by deposits (8.6%), stocks (8.8%), and funds (4.8%) [4][8]. - High dividend stocks constitute a significant portion of the insurance capital's equity investments, with approximately 66% of the heavy-weight stocks being high dividend stocks as of the third quarter of 2025 [9]. - Social security funds have shown a stable growth trend, with total assets reaching 3.32 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.2% [13]. - The basic pension system in China is projected to reach a total scale of 15.52 trillion yuan by 2024, with the first and second pillars accounting for 56% and 23% respectively [20]. Summary by Sections Insurance Capital - Insurance capital has maintained a high growth trend, with stock and fund allocations reaching 13.6% as of 2025H1 [4]. - The major investment focus remains on bonds, with a 51.1% allocation, while stock investments have increased to 8.8% [4][8]. - Heavy-weight stocks in the insurance sector are concentrated in banking, accounting for 47% of the total heavy-weight stocks [10]. Social Security Funds - The social security fund's heavy-weight stocks account for 14.6% of total assets, with a notable investment return of 8.1% for the year [13]. - The fund has increased its holdings in real estate and basic chemicals while reducing exposure to oil and electricity equipment [19]. Basic Pension - The basic pension fund has a total balance exceeding 8.7 trillion yuan, with a return rate of 5.52% for the year [22]. - The heavy-weight stocks in the basic pension fund are diversified, with significant investments in basic chemicals and electricity equipment [23]. Enterprise Annuities - The enterprise annuity fund has shown rapid growth, reaching a total scale of 6.75 trillion yuan by 2024, with a return rate of 5.77% [29]. - The investment style of enterprise annuities is market-oriented, with significant fluctuations in sector allocations [30].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [16]. Core Insights - The report highlights an increase in market activity, with various quantitative strategies showing positive average returns over different time frames. For instance, the A500 enhanced strategy has an average return of +24.5% year-to-date [1]. - The report also notes significant changes in average daily trading volumes across major indices, with the CSI 500 showing a year-to-date increase of +87.8% [3]. - The report identifies the top-performing sectors, with chemicals, consumer discretionary retail, and electrical equipment leading in weekly gains, while semiconductors and banks lagged behind [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Metrics - The average returns for various enhanced strategies are as follows: - CSI 300: +16.1% year-to-date - CSI 500: +25.7% year-to-date - CSI 1000: +30.9% year-to-date [1] - The average daily trading volumes for major indices are: - CSI 300: 6,582 billion CNY year-to-date - CSI 500: 4,491 billion CNY year-to-date - CSI 1000: 4,565 billion CNY year-to-date [3] Sector Performance - Weekly top-performing sectors include: - Chemicals: +3.5% - Consumer discretionary retail: +3.3% - Electrical equipment: +3.1% - Year-to-date top-performing sectors include: - Non-ferrous metals: +70% - Hardware equipment: +50.3% - Industrial trade and comprehensive: +43.2% [4] Basis and Spread Analysis - The report discusses the basis situation, noting that the annualized spreads for current contracts are as follows: - IF: -0.1% - IC: +9.9% - IM: +16.3% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF (513750) has shown a positive performance with a 0.54% increase in value and significant growth in trading volume and shares outstanding [1] Group 1: Fund Performance - The ETF's trading volume reached 845 million yuan on the reported day [1] - The total shares outstanding increased by 25.5 million, bringing the latest total to 13.128 billion shares [1] - Over the past 20 trading days, the shares outstanding have increased by 1.059 billion [1] - The latest net asset value of the ETF is calculated at 22.084 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Benchmark and Management - The performance benchmark for the ETF is the yield of the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank Financial Theme Index, adjusted for valuation exchange rates [1] - The fund is managed by GF Fund Management Co., Ltd., with fund managers Luo Guoqing and Cao Shiyu [1] - Since its establishment on November 10, 2023, the ETF has achieved a return of 68.19%, with a monthly return of 2.01% [1]

Group 1 - Northbound capital activity has rebounded, with a net buying of A-shares, particularly in the computer, food and beverage, and non-ferrous metal sectors, while there was net selling in the machinery sector [1][10] - Margin trading activity has also slightly increased, reaching a three-week high, with net buying mainly in the electric new energy, communication, and machinery sectors, and net selling in food and beverage, oil and petrochemicals, and coal sectors [16][39] - The trading heat and volatility in the market have risen, with sectors like communication, electronics, electric new energy, chemicals, machinery, and real estate showing trading heat above the 80th percentile [2][5] Group 2 - The ETF market has seen net subscriptions, primarily in institutional ETFs, with significant net buying in sectors such as electronics, non-bank financials, and pharmaceuticals, while there was net selling in electric new energy, chemicals, and banking sectors [31][32] - The buy-sell ratio of the top 10 active northbound stocks compared to the overall northbound trading has shown a slight increase, indicating a shift in trading dynamics [13] - The buy consensus for ETFs and northbound trading has decreased, while the buy consensus for margin trading and the dragon and tiger list has increased, suggesting a mixed sentiment among market participants [39]

Group 1: Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index continued to rise, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread deepened, with inflation expectations increasing [1][14] - Offshore dollar liquidity has generally loosened, while the domestic interbank funding environment remains balanced and slightly loose [1][18] Group 2: Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has rebounded, with volatility in major indices, except for the Shenzhen 100, also increasing [2][25] - Trading activity in sectors such as telecommunications, electronics, electric new energy, chemicals, machinery, and real estate remains above the 80th percentile [2][25] - The volatility of major indices has mostly increased, with telecommunications and electronics remaining above the 80th historical percentile [2][31] Group 3: Institutional Research - Research activity is high in sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, food and beverage, and telecommunications, with a month-on-month increase in research intensity for pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, electronics, textiles, and retail [3][43] Group 4: Analyst Forecasts - Net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026 have been adjusted, with non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, electric power, and public utilities seeing upward revisions [4][21] - The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts for 2025/2026 has decreased [4][17] - The net profit forecasts for the CSI 500 index for 2025/2026 have been downgraded [4][23] Group 5: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has rebounded, with a net buying of A-shares overall [5][31] - In the top 10 active stocks, the buying and selling ratio in sectors such as electric new energy, telecommunications, and non-ferrous metals has increased [5][32] - For stocks with northbound holdings of less than 30 million shares, net buying was mainly in the computer, electronics, and chemicals sectors [5][33] Group 6: Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has continued to slightly rebound, reaching a three-week high [6][35] - The main net buying in margin financing was in electric new energy, telecommunications, and machinery sectors [6][36] - The proportion of financing purchases in banking, media, and pharmaceuticals has increased month-on-month [6][38] Group 7: Fund Activity - The positions of actively managed equity funds have increased, with net subscriptions in ETFs overall [7][45] - Actively managed equity funds have mainly increased positions in telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and electric new energy sectors [7][46] - New equity fund establishment scales have rebounded, with both actively and passively managed funds seeing increases [7][50]

Group 1 - The core investment logic indicates that the non-bank financial sector has strong allocation value, supported by policies, improving industry fundamentals, and attractive valuations, particularly in the Hong Kong market compared to A-shares [11][12][27] - Policy support for the financial market includes measures such as liquidity support tools and encouraging long-term capital to enter the market, which aims to enhance market confidence and promote high-quality development in the financial sector [12][14] - The insurance sector is expected to see an improvement in industry conditions due to increased premium income and a higher allocation of equity assets, which will enhance investment returns [21][24] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank Index is characterized by a significant concentration in the insurance sector, large-cap style, and strong profitability, with 64.66% of its weight in insurance [43][44] - The index has a relatively low valuation, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.01, indicating substantial room for valuation recovery [29][53] - The index also exhibits a high dividend yield of 3.07%, which is notably higher than the 2.11% yield of the CSI 300 Non-Bank Index, highlighting its attractive income potential [33][56] Group 3 - The Guangfa CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank Financial Theme ETF is the only ETF tracking the Hong Kong Non-Bank Index, showcasing its unique investment opportunity [3][59] - As of October 30, 2025, the ETF has a market size of 21.91 billion, reflecting strong investor interest and growth since its launch [62] - The fund is managed by experienced professionals with a solid track record in managing index funds, enhancing investor confidence in its management [65][68]