指数盘中再创新高后尾盘出现回落，收盘沪指仍然站在 5 日均线之上。周二沪指早盘再次创出近期 新高，但尾盘市场出现一定震荡回落，科技成长类板块出现一定调整，最终收盘沪指仍然位于 5 日均线 之上。全天板块和个股表现分化，个股表现涨跌互现，显示市场在临近 3900 点时存在一定分歧。目前 市场沿着短期均线震荡盘升的态势明确，上行趋势保持良好，不必对短期震荡过度担忧。 本报告的版权归本公司所有，属于非公开资料。本公司对本报告保留一切歌称。除非另有良面面示，否就本报告中的所有材料的板内网 本公司还不经本公司等年来 中国歌歌 二本相关的手包部分 均不得以任何方式制作任何形式的排贝、复印件或复制品，或再次分发给任何其他人，或以任何硬犯本公司版权的其他方式使用。所有本报告中使用的商标、服务标记及标记均为本公司的商标。 服务标记及标记,未获本公司同意,任何人均无权在任何情况下使用他们。 盘面回顾：指数小幅震荡回落，调整幅度有限。周二指数在盘中再次创出近期新高后出现一定震 荡，尾盘出现回落，但震荡幅度比较有限，收盘沪指仍然位于 5 日均线之上，近期表现突出的科创 50 下跌超 1%领跌市场。截止收盘个股和板块表现涨跌互现，下跌 ...

Group 1: Market Analysis - The report emphasizes a shift in small-cap research from information-driven to logic-driven approaches due to information overload in the current market[7] - There are over 3,000 companies in the small-cap sector, making selection challenging[17] - The report highlights that traditional industries, such as real estate, have seen many companies undergo restructuring or transformation, but these opportunities are becoming less viable[7] Group 2: Performance Metrics - The report indicates that small-cap indices have underperformed the CSI 300 index from October 2016 to January 2021, while they have outperformed since January 2021[32] - The number of companies with a market capitalization below 10 billion yuan is significant across various sectors, with machinery and equipment leading at 478 companies[12] - The investment rating system categorizes stocks based on their performance relative to the CSI 300 index, with "Increase" indicating a projected outperformance of over 15%[44]

Economic Overview - China's GDP for the first half of 2025 grew by 5.3% year-on-year, with fixed asset investment increasing by 2.8%, while real estate development investment fell by 11.2% [3] - The second quarter's growth was supported by "old-for-new" subsidies and stable export growth, but challenges remain in real estate and consumption, necessitating ongoing policy support [3] Equity Market Insights - CITIC Securities suggests that the current market conditions present an opportunity to increase allocations to Hong Kong stocks, particularly in low-priced manufacturing sectors, as the "anti-involution" narrative continues [5] - Guolian Minsheng notes that the current macro environment differs significantly from 2015, with a lack of substantial stable capital inflow, suggesting a weaker market performance compared to previous years [6] - Galaxy Securities anticipates a preference for large-cap stocks in the second half of 2025, with value stocks gaining favor due to stable returns and support from traditional industries [8] Industry Research - In the humanoid robot sector, Invesco Great Wall Fund highlights a significant breakthrough with a 124 million yuan order, indicating a shift towards large-scale commercialization, with the global market expected to reach $20 billion by 2030 [13] - Tianhong Fund emphasizes the improving fundamentals of the military industry, with a focus on upcoming military parades showcasing new equipment, suggesting a favorable investment environment [14] - Galaxy Fund points to the expansion of AI computing power driving demand in the communications sector, with a positive outlook for related electronic components [15] Macro and Fixed Income - Galaxy Fund indicates that long-term interest rates may have room to decline due to economic pressures, recommending attention to key negotiation points between China and the U.S. [21] - Morgan Fund predicts a volatile downward trend in the bond market for the second half of 2025, advising on optimizing investment portfolios in a low-interest environment [22] - 富国基金 suggests a stable yet changing bond market, with expectations of a prolonged low-interest rate environment impacting future investment strategies [23] Asset Allocation Strategies - E Fund recommends a balanced approach to equity and bond investments, highlighting the importance of flexibility in response to market volatility and strong consensus expectations [25][26]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.34% with a trading volume of 739.68 million shares and a transaction value of 1029.299 billion yuan, representing a 13.06% increase compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - The top-performing industries included: - Non-ferrous metals: increased by 1.95% with a transaction value of 694.11 billion yuan, up 140.82% from the previous day, led by Haixing Co., which rose by 10.03% [1]. - Steel: increased by 1.22% with a transaction value of 95.99 billion yuan, up 55.16%, with Baogang Co. leading at 7.46% [1]. - Coal: increased by 1.10% with a transaction value of 59.30 billion yuan, up 106.68%, led by Yunnan Coal Energy, which rose by 10.05% [1]. - The industries with the largest declines included: - Beauty and personal care: decreased by 0.64% with a transaction value of 33.30 billion yuan, up 33.79%, led by ST Meigu, which fell by 2.51% [2]. - Automotive: decreased by 0.40% with a transaction value of 534.76 billion yuan, down 11.82%, led by Shanghai Wumao, which fell by 6.40% [2]. - Public utilities: decreased by 0.38% with a transaction value of 182.71 billion yuan, down 7.78%, led by New Zhonggang, which fell by 6.02% [2]. Summary of Key Industries - Basic chemicals: increased by 0.98% with a transaction value of 561.78 billion yuan, up 48.89%, led by Fumiao Technology, which rose by 20.02% [1]. - Defense and military: increased by 0.93% with a transaction value of 421.97 billion yuan, up 52.43%, led by Tianqin Equipment, which rose by 12.53% [1]. - Computer: increased by 0.70% with a transaction value of 1224.38 billion yuan, up 16.05%, led by Xiling Information, which rose by 15.60% [1].

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" research trend is gaining momentum in the A-share market, with expectations that it may become the main theme for the next market phase, benefiting various sectors such as lithium batteries, photovoltaics, coal, steel, chemicals, energy, and construction materials [2][3][4]. Group 1: Research and Analysis - In the past week, a total of 176 research reports on the "anti-involution" theme were published by institutions, covering multiple industries including strategy, macroeconomics, steel, fossil energy, electrical equipment, building materials, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and aquaculture [2]. - The "anti-involution" theme has become a focal point in analyst roadshows, with 79 related events held in the past week, indicating a strong institutional interest [2]. - Analysts believe that the current round of "anti-involution" has a higher standing, broader coverage, and stronger synergy, with potential implications for the market's next phase [3]. Group 2: Policy and Market Implications - The Central Financial Committee's recent meeting emphasized the need to promote a unified national market and address issues of low-price competition, which has led to increased attention on "anti-involution" in the capital market [3]. - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to unfold in three stages: policy expectations, price increases, and demand expansion, with a focus on sectors that may experience a turnaround [4]. Group 3: Beneficiary Industries - Key sectors expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policies include: - Midstream and downstream manufacturing such as lithium batteries, photovoltaics, wind power, passenger vehicles, paper, and medical devices - Service and consumer sectors like food processing, express delivery, and small appliances - Resource materials including steel, cement/glass, consumer building materials, chemical fibers/agricultural chemicals, and energy metals - Real estate-related sectors such as kitchen appliances and home furnishings [5][6]. - The steel industry is highlighted for its potential bottom reversal, with supply-side reforms and improved profitability expected [8]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The photovoltaic industry is entering a high-quality development phase, with significant stock price increases observed in related sectors [9]. - Analysts suggest that the photovoltaic sector's recovery will depend on effective supply-side reforms and the establishment of a long-term mechanism for eliminating outdated capacity [9]. - Recent downgrades in specific photovoltaic stocks indicate a cautious outlook despite the overall positive sentiment in the sector [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The convertible bond market declined with reduced trading volume today, and the valuation compressed on a month - on - month basis [1]. - The small - cap value style was relatively dominant in the market [1]. - The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market weakened [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - Index performance: The CSI Convertible Bond Index decreased by 0.25% month - on - month, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.06%, the ChiNext Index increased by 0.16%, the SSE 50 Index decreased by 0.26%, and the CSI 1000 Index decreased by 0.27% [1]. - Market style: Small - cap value was relatively dominant. Large - cap growth decreased by 0.23%, large - cap value decreased by 0.13%, mid - cap growth decreased by 0.60%, mid - cap value decreased by 0.17%, small - cap growth decreased by 0.32%, and small - cap value decreased by 0.01% [1]. - Fund performance: The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market weakened. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 67.972 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 9.64%; the total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 1527.42 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 3.58%; the net outflow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 28.594 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond increased by 0.02bp to 1.64% on a month - on - month basis [1]. Convertible Bond Price - The central price of convertible bonds decreased, and the proportion of high - price bonds decreased. The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 123.61 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. Among them, the closing price of equity - biased convertible bonds was 165.61 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 1.49%; the closing price of bond - biased convertible bonds was 114.66 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 0.30%; the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 123.78 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 0.38% [2]. - From the distribution of convertible bond closing prices, the proportion of high - price bonds above 130 yuan was 31.62%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.28pct; the range with the largest change in proportion was 100 - 110 (including 110), with a proportion of 4.27%, a month - on - month increase of 0.85pct; there were 2 bonds with a closing price below 100 yuan. The median price was 125.10 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32% [2]. Convertible Bond Valuation - Valuation compressed. The fitted conversion premium rate of 100 - yuan par value was 24.59%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.87pct; the overall weighted par value was 94.52 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 0.18% [2]. - The premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was 6.43%, a month - on - month increase of 0.04pct; the premium rate of bond - biased convertible bonds was 94.34%, a month - on - month increase of 2.34pct; the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds was 17.97%, a month - on - month increase of 0.30pct [2]. Industry Performance - In the A - share market, the top three industries in terms of increase were media (+1.35%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (+0.65%), and commerce and retail (+0.48%); the top three industries in terms of decline were non - ferrous metals (-2.26%), basic chemicals (-0.85%), and electronics (-0.82%) [3]. - In the convertible bond market, 22 industries declined. The top three industries in terms of decline were building materials (-1.83%), national defense and military industry (-1.39%), and communication (-0.87%); the top three industries in terms of increase were environmental protection (+5.76%), coal (+0.89%), and media (+0.28%) [3]. - Closing price: The large - cycle increased by 0.72% month - on - month, manufacturing decreased by 0.39%, technology decreased by 0.65%, large - consumption decreased by 0.07%, and large - finance decreased by 0.14% [3]. - Conversion premium rate: The large - cycle decreased by 0.21pct month - on - month, manufacturing decreased by 0.055pct, technology decreased by 0.41pct, large - consumption decreased by 0.19pct, and large - finance decreased by 0.083pct [3]. - Conversion value: The large - cycle increased by 0.94% month - on - month, manufacturing decreased by 0.40%, technology decreased by 0.42%, large - consumption increased by 0.14%, and large - finance increased by 0.72% [3]. - Pure bond premium rate: The large - cycle increased by 0.91pct month - on - month, manufacturing decreased by 0.52pct, technology decreased by 0.97pct, large - consumption decreased by 0.097pct, and large - finance decreased by 0.17pct [4]. Industry Rotation - Media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and commerce and retail led the rise. In the stock market, media had a daily increase of 1.35%, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery had a daily increase of 0.65%, and commerce and retail had a daily increase of 0.48%. In the convertible bond market, media had a daily increase of 0.28%, environmental protection had a daily increase of 5.76%, and coal had a daily increase of 0.89% [3][57].

Group 1 - The total upper limit of stock repurchase and shareholder increase loans in the A-share market has exceeded 120 billion yuan, involving over 600 listed companies [1][2][3] - Among the companies involved, the majority are from the main board, with over 400 companies, followed by the ChiNext board with over 100 companies, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board with 80 companies [4] - The electronic industry has the highest number of companies participating in stock repurchase and increase loans, exceeding 60 companies, followed by the pharmaceutical and basic chemical industries, each with over 50 companies [4] Group 2 - Over 450 companies have announced stock repurchase loans, with a total upper limit of nearly 80 billion yuan, while over 180 companies have announced shareholder increase loans, with a total upper limit exceeding 40 billion yuan [3] - Nearly 300 companies have a loan upper limit exceeding 100 million yuan, with notable companies like Muyuan Foods, Haier Smart Home, and Gree Electric Appliances having loan limits exceeding 1 billion yuan [3] - More than 500 companies that have announced repurchase and increase loan matters are expected to have positive net profits for the year 2024, indicating that profitable companies account for over 80% of the total [4]

Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced the highest net inflow of capital today, amounting to 3.202 billion yuan, with a price change of 0.42% and a turnover rate of 2.95% [1] - The electronics industry faced the largest net outflow of capital, totaling -5.802 billion yuan, with a price change of -1.50% and a turnover rate of 1.88% [2] Industry Summary - **Automotive**: - Trading volume: 6.343 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +2.57% - Net capital inflow: 3.202 billion yuan [1] - **Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology**: - Trading volume: 7.099 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +33.86% - Net capital inflow: 1.107 billion yuan [1] - **Basic Chemicals**: - Trading volume: 6.300 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +5.19% - Net capital inflow: 0.462 billion yuan [1] - **Electronics**: - Trading volume: 5.156 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +2.93% - Net capital outflow: -5.802 billion yuan [2] - **Computers**: - Trading volume: 5.198 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +14.85% - Net capital outflow: -5.296 billion yuan [2] - **Telecommunications**: - Trading volume: 2.315 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +13.64% - Net capital outflow: -2.272 billion yuan [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, China is in a marginal de - leveraging process. The government aims to stabilize the macro - leverage ratio, and the growth rate of the real - sector's liabilities is expected to decline. The fiscal policy is front - loaded, and the monetary policy is moderately neutral [2][17]. - The economic recovery in the current round is better than expected, but it is necessary to observe whether the physical volume data will weaken in the future. The target for the annual real economic growth rate in 2025 is around 5%, and the nominal economic growth rate target is around 4.9% [4][19]. - The stock - bond relationship shows a pattern of a strong stock market and a weak bond market, with the style shifting towards value - based stocks. The stock - bond ratio continues to favor stocks, but in the de - leveraging cycle, the trading value of both stocks and bonds is currently limited. If the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond rises above 1.7%, the trading value of bonds may gradually emerge [6][22]. - In the de - leveraging cycle, the probability of value - based stocks outperforming is higher. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio and A - share portfolio mainly focus on industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Balance Sheet Analysis Liability Side - In March 2025, the real - sector's liability growth rate was 8.7% (previous value: 8.4%), expected to rebound slightly to around 9.0% in April, reach an annual high, and then decline steadily in May and return to de - leveraging. By the end of the year, it is expected to drop to around 8% [2][17]. - The government's liability growth rate was 13.9% at the end of March 2025 (previous value: 12.9%), expected to rise to around 14.8% in April, reach an annual high, and then decline. By the end of the year, it is expected to drop to around 12.5% [3][18]. - Last week, the money market continued to loosen marginally. The one - year Treasury bond yield oscillated upwards, closing at 1.45% at the weekend. The estimated lower limit of the one - year Treasury bond yield is about 1.3%, the lower limit of the 10 - year Treasury bond yield is about 1.7%, and the lower limit of the 30 - year Treasury bond yield is about 1.9% [3][18]. Asset Side - In March, the physical volume data improved comprehensively compared to January - February. The economic recovery in this round is better than expected, but it is necessary to pay attention to whether the physical volume data will weaken in the future. The target for the annual real economic growth rate in 2025 is around 5%, and the nominal economic growth rate target is around 4.9% [4][19]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - Effectiveness and Stock - Bond Style - Last week, the money market continued to loosen marginally. The stock market was strong, and the bond market was weak, with the style shifting towards value - based stocks. The yields of both short - term and long - term bonds increased, and the stock - bond ratio continued to favor stocks [6][22]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond yield increased by 4 basis points to 1.68% throughout the week, and the one - year Treasury bond yield increased by 3 basis points to 1.45%. The term spread between the 10 - year and one - year Treasury bonds slightly widened to 23 basis points [6][22]. - The wide - based rotation strategy underperformed the CSI 300 index by - 0.02 pct last week. Since the position was established in July, it has outperformed the CSI 300 index by 6.28 pct, with a maximum drawdown of 12.1% (compared to 15.7% for the CSI 300 index) [6][22]. - Considering the de - leveraging cycle, the trading value of both stocks and bonds is currently limited. If the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond rises above the predicted lower limit of 1.7%, the trading value of bonds may gradually emerge. This week, a bond position is added, with recommended allocations of 40% for the dividend index, 40% for the SSE 50 index, and 20% for the 30 - year Treasury bond ETF [7][23]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation 3.3.1 Industry Performance Review - This week, the A - share market rose with shrinking trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.8%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.5%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.4%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, beauty care, non - bank finance, automobiles, transportation, and basic chemicals had the largest increases, while computer, national defense and military industry, media, electronics, and social services had the largest declines [31]. 3.3.2 Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of May 16, the top five industries in terms of crowding were machinery and equipment, electronics, automobiles, computers, and basic chemicals, while the bottom five were comprehensive, steel, coal, building materials, and petroleum and petrochemicals [34]. - The top five industries with increased crowding this week were basic chemicals, transportation, automobiles, pharmaceutical biology, and non - ferrous metals, while the top five with decreased crowding were computers, national defense and military industry, electronics, communications, and media [34]. - The trading volume of the entire A - share market decreased this week. Beauty care, transportation, non - bank finance, textile and apparel, and coal had the highest year - on - year growth rates in trading volume, while real estate, media, household appliances, building materials, and steel had the smallest increases [35]. 3.3.3 Industry Valuation and Earnings - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, beauty care, non - bank finance, automobiles, basic chemicals, and transportation had the largest increases in PE(TTM), while national defense and military industry, computer, media, electronics, and social services had the largest declines [38]. - In terms of valuation - earnings matching, as of May 16, 2025, industries with relatively high full - year earnings forecasts for 2024 and relatively low current valuations compared to history included coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, non - ferrous metals, power equipment, pharmaceutical biology, and consumer electronics [40]. 3.3.4 Industry Prosperity - In terms of external demand, there were mixed trends. The global manufacturing PMI fell from 50.3 in April to 49.8, and the PMIs of major economies that have been released in April showed mixed trends. The CCFI index decreased by 0.14% week - on - week in the latest week, and port cargo throughput declined. South Korea's export growth rate rose to 3.7% in April and then dropped to - 23.8% in the first 10 days of May. Vietnam's export growth rate rose from 13.2% in March to 21% in April [42]. - In terms of domestic demand, the second - hand housing price decreased in the latest week, and the quantitative indicators showed mixed trends. The traffic volume of trucks on expressways declined. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries rose to a relatively high level in March 2025, significantly declined in April, and slightly rebounded in May. Automobile trading volume was at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history, new - home sales remained at a historical low, and second - hand home sales were still at a high level compared to the historical seasonality [42]. 3.3.5 Public Fund Market Review - In the second week of May (May 12 - 16), most active public equity funds underperformed the CSI 300. The 10%, 20%, 30%, and 50% weekly returns were 1.4%, 1%, 0.8%, and 0.3% respectively, while the CSI 300 rose 1.1% [58]. - As of May 16, based on the latest net value and share estimates, the net asset value of active public equity funds was 3.4 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [58]. 3.3.6 Industry Recommendation - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the probability of value - based stocks outperforming is higher. Dividend - type stocks generally should have three characteristics: no balance - sheet expansion, good profitability, and survival ability [8][62]. - Combining the above three characteristics and the under - allocation situation in the public fund's quarterly report, the recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 20 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - share stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [9][62].

Group 1 - The macro background for the A-share adjustment in Q2 includes a natural decline in Chinese exports and increased tariff threats from the US, leading to amplified macroeconomic expectations and a decrease in risk appetite [1][2] - The direct reason for the short-term market adjustment is the approaching "April Decision" period, which includes the verification of annual and quarterly reports, as well as economic data from China and the implementation of US tariffs [1][2] - The adjustment pressure from the April verification period is considered limited, with expectations for domestic AI computing power to potentially show strong differentiation and growth [1][3] Group 2 - The macroeconomic issues persisting into Q2 include the natural decline in Chinese exports and the potential for further US tariff threats, which may lead to a weak and volatile A-share market [2][4] - The narrative of the current technology adjustment is similar to the Nasdaq adjustment from July to October 2023, characterized by slow application realization and concerns over excessive investment in computing power [2][3] - The adjustment in domestic AI computing power is seen as a shorter phase compared to the US, as the industry is still in a stage of basic breakthroughs with insufficient application layer development [3][4] Group 3 - Defensive thinking is favored in Q2 2025, with a focus on high dividend relative returns and the strengthening of pricing power for short-term allocation funds [4][5] - The technology structural bull market is expected to continue into 2025, with investment opportunities identified in domestic AI computing power and applications, embodied intelligence, and low-altitude economy [4][5] - The valuation advantage of Hong Kong stocks over A-shares is highlighted, particularly in the context of insurance capital's increasing influence on high dividend assets [5]