Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the dairy sector driven by favorable policies related to fertility, which are expected to boost demand. The supply-demand balance for raw milk is anticipated to improve, leading to stabilization in milk prices [4]. - In the liquor segment, the focus is on high-end products and regional leaders, with specific recommendations for companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye. The report notes that the white liquor sector is currently experiencing a bottoming out in valuations, with expectations for demand recovery supported by policy measures [4]. - The snack food sector continues to show high growth potential, with recommendations for companies such as Yanjinpuzi and Ganyuan Food. The report also emphasizes the resilience of the restaurant supply chain, suggesting investments in companies like Anjifood and Qianwei Yangchun [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector rose by 1.76% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.24 percentage points, ranking 20th among 31 sectors [5][10]. - The best-performing sub-sectors included health products and baked goods, which increased by 5.09% and 4.25%, respectively [10]. 2. Key Consumption and Raw Material Prices - The report provides detailed pricing data for key liquor products, noting that the price of the 2024 Moutai original bottle is 2,190 yuan, reflecting a slight increase from the previous week [20]. - In the beer sector, production for March 2025 reached 312.8 million hectoliters, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [25]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report notes a 2% year-on-year decline in liquor prices as of April, with overall food and beverage prices showing a slight increase [55]. 4. Core Company Updates - Qingdao Beer plans to acquire 100% equity of Jimo Huangjiu from Xinhua Jin Group and Lujin Group for 666 million yuan [56]. - Baba Foods announced a cash dividend of 0.80 yuan per share, totaling 192 million yuan [56].

大众品：表现分化，结构性增长。 1 ）啤酒： 25Q1 收入同比 +4% 、净利润同比 +11% ， 销量景气修 复吨价承压，成本优势利润率持续改善。 2 ）软饮料： 25Q1 收入同比 +3% 、净利润同比 +1% ，继 续保持较好景气度，龙头亮各有亮点。 3 ）零食： 食品综合板块分化明显，其中新渠道和新品类驱动下 零食成长性凸显， 24Q4 、 25Q1 收入分别同比 +18% 、 +2% ， 25Q1 受高基数和春节提前等因素影 响业绩增速阶段性下滑。 4 ）乳制品： 2024 年（ A 股）收入同比 -7% 、净利润 -27% ，度过调整期 后 25Q1 景气度和毛销差边际改善。 5 ）调味品： 2024 年板块收入边际改善， 25Q1 业绩稳步增长， 收入同比 +3% 、净利润同比 +7% 、毛利率同比 +1.6pct 。 6 ） 餐饮供应链： 竞争加剧导致 2024 年 板块利润承压， 25Q1 收入同比 -5% 、利润同比 -13% 环比降速。 风险提示： 消费复苏不及预期、市场竞争加剧、成本进一步上涨、食品安全问题。 文章来源 本文摘自：2025年5月5日发布的 结构分化，重视成长——食品饮 ...

白酒：五一临近关注宴席场景拉动，Q1 板块释压预计总体持平微增。本周白酒板块-1.75%， 表现弱于食品饮料整体以及沪深 300，我们认为主要系：①当前处白酒消费淡季，需求端总体 仍偏弱；②25Q1 行业主动调整去库存&高基数背景下报表端预计承压。本周舍得酒业、华致 酒行发布一季报，天佑德酒、顺鑫农业、五粮液、老白干酒发布年报&一季报，总体表现符合 预期（五粮液25Q1略超预期），从目前发布的酒企财报来看预计降速释压仍是酒企24Q4&25Q1 主旋律。五一旺季来临各头部品牌纷纷加码婚宴投入力度，从多地酒店宴席预订量增长情况来 看，五一期间白酒宴席场景预计有增长，或加速行业库存去化节奏，助力行业逐步走出调整。 4 月 25 日中央政治局会议提到，要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极的 财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，同时，还提到将通过创设新工具精准引导资金流向科技创新、 扩大消费、稳定外贸等领域。当前（2025-04-26）申万白酒指数 PE-TTM 为 19.44X，处于近 10 年 11.49%的合理偏低水位，在中央政治局会议积极定调背景下，建议关注后续具体刺激政 策出台为板块带来的估值修复机会 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a strong willingness to boost domestic demand through policy measures, with signs of recovery observed in quality companies, suggesting an active investment strategy [3][4][12]. Group 1: Beer Industry - The beer sector is witnessing a stabilization in demand, with leading companies managing to clear inventory risks early, which positions them favorably for growth [12][14]. - In Q1 2025, beer consumption showed positive growth, driven by the Spring Festival and a low inventory start for major brands, with national sales expected to increase [9][10][12]. - Investment recommendations focus on high-sensitivity beer stocks, such as China Resources Beer and Qingdao Beer, as well as strong individual stocks like Dongpeng Beverage and Haitian Flavoring [6][14][17]. Group 2: Snack Industry - The snack market is characterized by significant differences in product performance, with strong sales in gift boxes during the Spring Festival and notable growth in konjac-based snacks [21][22]. - Leading snack companies are enhancing product quality and competitive pricing to adapt to the current consumer trend towards value [21][22]. - The report suggests focusing on high-growth companies like Weidong and Yanjinpuzi, which are expected to achieve over 20% revenue growth in 2025 [29][26]. Group 3: Dairy Industry - The dairy sector is anticipated to face a supply-demand turning point by the end of 2025, as upstream inventory is expected to clear, leading to improved market conditions [32][41]. - Policies aimed at boosting birth rates are expected to further stimulate dairy consumption, with significant government support for families [38][40]. - Investment focus should be on leading dairy companies that maintain high levels of investor returns, such as Yili and Mengniu, which are expected to stabilize their profit margins [41][45]. Group 4: Beverage Industry - The beverage sector continues to show high growth potential, particularly for companies like Dongpeng Beverage, which is expanding its market presence and product offerings [46][48]. - The report highlights the ongoing trend of consumers favoring functional beverages, with projected growth rates for various beverage categories [48][49]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies that are effectively leveraging their distribution networks and product innovation to capture market share [46][48]. Group 5: Restaurant Supply Chain - The restaurant supply chain is experiencing a recovery in demand, supported by government policies aimed at stimulating domestic consumption [51][57]. - The competitive landscape remains intense, with a significant number of restaurant closures indicating a need for efficiency improvements within the supply chain [57][58]. - The report suggests that the restaurant supply chain sector may see profitability improvements as inventory levels normalize and demand stabilizes [58][59].