Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the feed and breeding industry is complex, with different products facing different supply - demand relationships and price trends. Pig prices are under pressure in the medium - long term due to strong supply and weak demand, while egg prices are also pressured by high supply. For oils and fats, the market is in a state of shock, with an expected decline in the second quarter and a potential rebound in the third quarter. The short - term trend of soybean meal is low - level shock, and it is expected to be stable and strong in the medium - long term. Corn prices are expected to be stable and strong, with short - term support and limited upside in the medium - long term due to substitutes [1][2][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Product Pig - **Spot Price**: On May 21, the spot price in Liaoning was 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg, stable; in Henan, it was 14.4 - 15 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg, stable; in Guangdong, it was 14.9 - 15.4 yuan/kg, stable [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In May, the scale enterprise's slaughter plan increased, and the high pig weight led to accumulating supply pressure. Although the Dragon Boat Festival stocking was approaching, the demand was weak due to hot weather and high pig prices. In the medium - long term, the supply from May to September 2024 was increasing, and the slaughter pressure in the second quarter of 2024 - 2025 was still large, with high supply and weak demand [1]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a bearish strategy when the price rebounds to the pressure level. The pressure level for the 07 contract is 13700 - 13800, and the support level is lowered to 13000 - 13100; for the 09 contract, the pressure level is 14000 - 14200, and the support level is 13300 - 13400. Sell out - of - the - money call options for the 09 contract when the price rebounds [1]. Egg - **Spot Price**: On May 21, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.1 yuan/jin, stable; in Beijing, it was 3.3 yuan/jin, stable [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, the low egg price and approaching Dragon Boat Festival may increase demand, but the large new production in May and non - large - scale old chicken culling led to continuous supply accumulation. In the medium - long term, the high replenishment volume from February to April 2025 corresponds to more newly - laying hens from June to August 2025, and the supply is expected to increase [2]. - **Strategy**: For the 06 contract, wait and see; for the 08 and 09 contracts, take a bearish approach and short when the price rebounds. Pay attention to the 3750 - 3800 pressure level for the 08 contract [2]. Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: On May 20, the US soybean oil July contract rose 0.26% to 49.57 cents/lb, following the rise of Malaysian palm oil. The Malaysian palm oil August contract rose 0.67% to 3910 ringgit/ton. Domestic palm oil prices rose 80 - 110 yuan/ton, soybean oil prices rose 20 - 40 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil prices rose 20 - 40 yuan/ton [2][4]. - **Palm Oil**: The MPOB April report showed an increase in inventory. In May, the export volume increased, but it was in the seasonal production - increasing period. In China, palm oil will arrive in large quantities from May, and the inventory is expected to gradually increase. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the 08 contract operating in the 3800 - 4000 range [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: The uncertainty of the US biofuel blending policy, the pressure of the South American old - crop soybean listing, and the good sowing progress of the US new - crop soybean dragged down the performance of US soybeans. In China, the soybean arrival volume from May to July is expected to be about 10 million tons per month, and the soybean oil inventory is expected to increase [5]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The supply and demand of Canadian rapeseed are tightening. The ICE rapeseed's short - term rise is limited, and the downside space is also small. In China, the rapeseed oil inventory is at a historically high level, but if the supply tightens, the inventory is expected to gradually decrease [6]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils fluctuate in the short term, with operating ranges of 7700 - 8000, 7800 - 8200, and 9200 - 9500 respectively. Short cautiously when the price rises. Pay long - term attention to the strategy of expanding the price difference of the 09 contracts of soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm oils [7][8]. Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On May 20, the US soybean 07 contract rose 2.25 cents to 1053 cents/bu. The domestic M2509 contract closed at 2889 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China was 2850 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, the smooth sowing of US soybeans and the South American bumper harvest suppress the price of US soybeans, and the domestic soybean arrival volume increases. In the medium - long term, the increase in import cost and weather disturbances will drive the domestic soybean meal price to be strong [8]. - **Strategy**: For the 09 contract, reduce short positions in batches. Go long at low prices in the medium - long term, and pay attention to the 2830 support level [8]. Corn - **Spot Price**: On May 20, the purchase price of new corn at Jinzhou Port was 2290 yuan/ton, stable; the平仓 price was 2330 yuan/ton. The purchase price at Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2468 yuan/ton, stable [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, the increase in traders' selling willingness and the decrease in grass - roots grain sources support the price. In the medium - long term, the new - crop yield is expected to decrease, and the import is decreasing, but the supply of substitutes limits the upside space [9]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a stable and strong strategy. The 07 contract fluctuates at a high level (2300 - 2360), and go long at the lower edge of the range. Pay attention to the 7 - 9 positive spread [9]. Today's Futures Market Overview | Product | Unit | Previous Trading Day Price (Closing Price) | Two - Day - Ago Trading Day Price (Closing Price) | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean Active | Cents/bu | 1,054.25 | 1,051.25 | 3.00 | | Soybean Meal Main | Yuan/ton | 2,889 | 2,886 | 3.00 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Meal | Yuan/ton | 2,880 | 2,920 | - 40.00 | | CBOT Corn Active | Cents/bu | 454.50 | 447.00 | 7.50 | | Corn Main | Yuan/ton | 2,312 | 2,330 | - 18.00 | | Dalian Corn Spot | Yuan/ton | 2,310 | 2,310 | 0.00 | | CBOT Soybean Oil Active | Cents/lb | 49.57 | 49.48 | 0.09 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Oil | Yuan/ton | 8,230 | 8,210 | 20.00 | | BMD Palm Oil Active | Ringgit/ton | 3,910 | 3,884 | 26.00 | | Guangzhou Palm Oil Spot | Yuan/ton | 8,650 | 8,570 | 80.00 | | ICE Rapeseed Active | Canadian dollars/ton | 704.40 | 695.30 | 9.10 | | Fangchenggang Rapeseed Oil Spot | Yuan/ton | 9,400 | 9,400 | 0.00 | | Egg Main | Yuan/500 kg | 2,964 | 2,938 | 26.00 | | Dezhou Egg Spot | Yuan/jin | 3.05 | 3.10 | - 0.05 | | Live Pig Futures Main | Yuan/ton | 13,690 | 13,685 | 5.00 | | Henan Live Pig Spot | Yuan/kg | 14.79 | 14.79 | 0.00 | [10]

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 5 月 20 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.5 元/公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；河南 14.5-15.1 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；四川 14.2-14.5 元/公斤，较上一日稳 定；广东 14.7-15.2 元/公斤，较上一日稳定。5 月规模企业出栏计划增加， 且生猪体重高位，供应压力累积中，前期二育强势进场，随着部分养殖户加 快出栏节奏，短期供应压力释放。需求端，虽然端午节备货临近，但天气转 热，猪肉消费转淡，且猪价偏高，屠企利润仍亏损，需求难有明显增量，不 过低位二次育肥滚动进场仍存，整体供需博弈加剧，猪价频繁震荡整理，关 注企业出栏节奏、二育进出情况、体重变化。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能提升，在疫情平稳情况下，5-9 月供应呈增 加态势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出 栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下， 猪价仍有下跌风险，关注二育介入造成供应后移、冻品出入库以及饲料价格 波动对价格的扰动；2024 年 12 月开始，生猪产能有所去化，但行业有利 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The overall supply pressure of the feed and breeding industry is gradually emerging, with high supply in the short - to - medium term and weak demand, which will put pressure on prices of related products. For pigs, there is a risk of price decline; for eggs, the price is under pressure due to slow capacity clearance; for corn, the price has short - term support and long - term upward drive, but the upside space is limited [4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pig - **Periodic and Spot Market**: As of May 16, the national spot price was 14.76 yuan/kg, down 0.16 yuan/kg from last week; Henan pig price was 14.91 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg from last week; the quotation of live hog 2509 was 13,660 yuan/ton, down 265 yuan/ton from last week; the basis of the 09 contract was 1,250 yuan/ton, up 365 yuan/ton from last week. Pig prices fluctuated weakly, and the market was in a stalemate [4][11]. - **Supply Side**: From May to November 2024, the inventory of reproductive sows increased steadily. In the context of stable epidemics, the supply from April to September 2025 showed an increasing trend. Although the production capacity was reduced, the reduction was limited. The supply pressure in the fourth quarter still exists. The number of piglets from November 2024 to February 2025 increased year - on - year, and the slaughter pressure in the second quarter was still high. In May, the planned slaughter volume of enterprises increased [4][61]. - **Demand Side**: The weekly slaughter start - up rate increased slightly, but the slaughter volume decreased. It is currently the off - season for consumption. High temperatures have led to a decrease in terminal consumption, and the slaughter volume is difficult to improve under the background of losses for slaughtering enterprises [4][61]. - **Cost Side**: The price of piglets decreased slightly, and the price of binary reproductive sows was stable. The breeding profits of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets increased slightly [4][61]. - **Weekly Summary**: In May, the planned slaughter volume of enterprises increased, and the supply pressure was accumulating. The demand was weak, but there was still some secondary fattening. The overall supply - demand game intensified, and pig prices fluctuated frequently. In the long - term, there is a risk of price decline due to strong supply and weak demand [4][61]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a short - selling strategy at the rebound pressure level. The pressure level for 07 is 13,800 - 14,000, and the support level is 13,200 - 13,300; for 09, the pressure level is 14,300 - 14,500, and the support level is 13,600 - 13,800. Sell out - of - the - money call options for 09 [4][61]. 3.2 Egg - **Periodic and Spot Market**: As of May 16, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 3.26 yuan/jin, up 0.23 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main egg - selling areas was 3.13 yuan/jin, up 0.11 yuan/jin from last Friday. The main egg contract 2506 closed at 2,894 yuan/500 kg, down 1 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was - 54 yuan/500 kg, 61 yuan/500 kg weaker than last Friday. Egg prices are expected to fall first and then rise next week [5][90]. - **Supply Side**: The number of newly - opened laying hens in May was large, and the slaughter of culled chickens increased but not significantly, so the supply pressure was still high. From February to April 2025, the high number of replenished chicks means more newly - opened laying hens from June to August 2025. The capacity clearance may take time [5][90]. - **Demand Side**: As the Dragon Boat Festival approaches, low egg prices may stimulate procurement demand. However, high temperatures and humidity in the south are not conducive to egg storage, and the demand is relatively limited [5][90]. - **Weekly Summary**: In the short - term, the approaching Dragon Boat Festival may support egg prices, but the high supply is not alleviated, so egg prices are under pressure. In the long - term, the high supply trend is difficult to reverse, and attention should be paid to near - term culling and raw material cost fluctuations [5][90]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For the 06 contract, adopt a wait - and - see strategy; for the 08 and 09 contracts, take a bearish view and wait for a rebound to short. Pay attention to the pressure level of 3,750 - 3,800 for 08, and the impact of feed and culling [5][90]. 3.3 Corn - **Periodic and Spot Market**: As of May 16, the corn平仓 price at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,320 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last Friday. The main corn contract 2507 closed at 2,335 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was - 15 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton stronger than last Friday. Corn prices are expected to rise slightly in the short term [6]. - **Supply Side**: As corn prices rose to a high level, traders' willingness to sell increased, increasing the supply. However, the primary grain sales are basically over, and the grain has been transferred to traders. The market is bullish, and traders are firm in their asking prices. At the same time, the inventories at north - south ports are gradually decreasing, which supports the price [6]. - **Demand Side**: The increase in the inventory of livestock and poultry has driven the recovery of feed demand. However, the increase in the price of corn has led to an increase in the procurement of wheat, squeezing the feed demand for corn. The deep - processing industry is in a loss, with a decline in the start - up rate and limited incremental demand [6]. - **Weekly Summary**: In the short - term, the reduction of primary grain sources and the bullish market sentiment support the price. In the long - term, the supply - demand relationship is tightening, driving the price up, but the upside space is limited due to the supply of substitutes [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take a generally bullish view. The 07 contract will fluctuate at a high level (2,320 - 2,400), and buy at the lower end of the range. Pay attention to the 7 - 9 positive spread [6].

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 产业服务总部 饲料养殖团队 2025-05-16 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 研究员 5 月 16 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.9 元/公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；河南 14.6-15.2 元/公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；四川 14.2-14.6 元/公斤，较 上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；广东 14.9-15.4 元/公斤，较上一日稳定。前期二育 强势进场，部分养殖户预计加快出栏节奏，且肥标价差倒挂以及成本提升， 二次育肥进场积极性减弱，后期供应增加。需求端，天气转热，猪肉消费转 淡，且猪价偏高，屠企利润仍亏损，需求增量有限，不过低位二次育肥滚动 进场仍存，整体供需博弈加剧，猪价频繁震荡整理，关注企业出栏节奏、二 育进出情况。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能 提升，在疫情平稳情况 下，5-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏 高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下， 猪价有下跌风险， ...

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 5 月 15 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.9 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；河南 14.6-15.3 元/ 公斤，较上一日稳定；四川 14.4-14.8 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；广东 15.1- 15.6 元/公斤，较上一日稳定。前期二育强势进场，部分养殖户预计节后出 栏，且肥标价差倒挂以及成本提升，二次育肥进场积极性减弱，后期供应增 加。需求端，天气转热，节后猪肉消费转淡，且猪价偏高，屠企利润仍亏 损，需求增量有限，不过低位二次育肥滚动进场仍存，整体供需博弈加剧， 猪价频繁震荡整理，关注企业出栏节奏、二育进出情况。中长期来看，能繁 母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能提升，在疫情平稳情况 下，5-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增 加，二季度出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强 需弱格局下， 猪价有下跌风险，关注二育介入造成供应后移、冻品出入库 以及饲料价格波动对价格的扰动；2024 年 12 月开始，生猪产能有所去 化，但行业有利润，去化幅度有限，处于均衡区间上限，四季度供应压力仍 大，远 ...

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 5 月 13 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.9 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；河南 14.6-15.4 元/ 公斤，较上一日稳定；四川 14.4-14.8 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；广东 15.1- 15.6 元/公斤，较上一日稳定。前期二育强势进场，二育栏舍利用率已超过 一半，部分养殖户预计节后出栏，且肥标价差倒挂以及成本提升，二次育肥 进场积极性减弱，后期供应增加。需求端，天气转热，节后猪肉消费转淡， 且猪价偏高，屠企利润仍亏损，需求增量有限，不过低位二次育肥滚动进场 仍存，整体供需博弈加剧，猪价频繁震荡整理，关注企业出栏节奏、二育进 出情况。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能提 升，在疫情平稳情况 下，4-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏 高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下， 猪价有下跌风险，关注二育 介入造成供应后移、冻品出入库以及饲料价格波动对价格的扰动；2024 年 12 月开始，生猪产能有所去化，但行业有利润，去化幅度有限，处于均衡 区间上限 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Pig Market**: In the short - term, the supply - demand game intensifies, and pig prices fluctuate frequently. In the long - term, under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, pig prices face a downward risk. The overall trend is weak and volatile [1]. - **Egg Market**: In the short - term, the egg price is under pressure due to increased supply and decreased demand. In the long - term, the supply pressure increases, and the far - month valuation is under pressure [2]. - **Oil Market**: After the holiday, domestic oils are expected to follow the external market and international crude oil to fluctuate weakly. In the second quarter, the overall oils are dragged down by the increase in soybean and palm oil arrivals, and may rebound in the third quarter [8]. - **Soybean Meal Market**: In the short - term, the price of soybean meal is expected to decline with the relaxation of supply and demand. In the long - term, due to increased costs and weather disturbances, the price is expected to be strong [9]. - **Corn Market**: In the short - term, the price has support. In the long - term, although there is an upward driving force, the upside space is limited due to substitutes [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig - **Spot Price**: On May 9, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong were stable compared to the previous day [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term: Secondary fattening entry enthusiasm weakens, and post - festival demand is weak. Long - term: Supply increases from April to September 2024, and the supply pressure is still large in the fourth quarter [1]. - **Strategy**: Short - term: The overall trend is weak and volatile, and short positions should be stopped for profit. Long - term: Wait for a rebound to go short at high prices [1]. Egg - **Spot Price**: On May 9, the prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing were stable compared to the previous day [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term: After the May Day holiday, demand falls, and supply accumulates. Long - term: High replenishment volume leads to an increasing supply trend [2]. - **Strategy**: 06 contract: Low - level shock. 08 and 09 contracts: Treat with a bearish logic [2]. Oil - **External Market**: On May 8, the US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil futures rose [2]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia: Production increases more than exports, and prices are under pressure. China: There is an expectation of inventory recovery and supply loosening in the second quarter [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean futures are under short - term pressure. In China, the supply pressure is large in the second quarter [6]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The supply in Canada is tightening. In China, the inventory is expected to gradually decrease in the second quarter [7]. - **Strategy**: 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. Be cautious about shorting palm oil, and wait and see for soybean and rapeseed oils [8]. Soybean Meal - **External Market**: On May 8, the US soybean 07 contract rose. The premium quotation is weak [9]. - **Domestic Market**: In the short - term, supply and demand are loosening, and prices are falling. In the long - term, prices are expected to be strong due to cost and weather factors [9]. - **Strategy**: Short - term: Go short at high prices for the 09 contract. Long - term: Go long at low prices [9]. Corn - **Spot Price**: On May 8, the price in Jinzhou Port was stable, and the price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao rose [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term: Supply is tight, and prices have support. Long - term: There is an upward driving force, but the upside space is limited [10]. - **Strategy**: Wait for a callback to go long, and be cautious about chasing up [10]. Today's Futures Market Overview - It shows the prices, price changes of various varieties such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc. on the previous trading day [11].

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 5 月 8 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.8 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；河南 14.5-15.3 元/ 公斤，较上一日稳定；四川 14.5-14.8 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；广东 15.4- 16 元/公斤，较上一日稳定。前期二育强势进场，二育栏舍利用率已超过一 半，部分养殖户五一前后出栏，且肥标价差倒挂以及成本提升，二次育肥进 场积极性减弱，后期供应增加。需求端，天气转热，节后猪肉消费转淡，且 猪价偏高，屠企利润仍亏损，需求增量有限，不过低位二次育肥滚动进场仍 存，整体供需博弈加剧，猪价频繁震荡整理，关注企业出栏节奏、二育进出 情况。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能提升， 在疫情平稳情况 下，4-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11- 2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，而 上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下， 猪价有下跌风险，关注二育介入造 成供应后移、冻品出入库以及饲料价格波动对价格的扰动；2024 年 12 月 开始，生猪产能有所去化，但行业有利润，去化幅度有限，处于均衡区间上 限， ...

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 5 月 7 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.8 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；河南 14.5-15.3 元/ 公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；四川 14.5-14.8 元/公斤，较上一日稳定； 广东 15.4-16 元/公斤，较上一日稳定。前期二育强势进场，二育栏舍利用 率已超过一半，部分养殖户五一前后出栏，且肥标价差倒挂以及成本提升， 二次育肥进场积极性减弱，后期供应增加。需求端，天气转热，节后猪肉消 费转淡，且猪价偏高，屠企利润仍亏损，需求增量有限，不过低位二次育肥 滚动进场仍存，整体供需博弈加剧，猪价频繁震荡整理，关注企业出栏节 奏、二育进出情况。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生 产性能提升，在疫情平稳情况 下，4-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据， 2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体 重偏高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下， 猪价有下跌风险，关注 二育介入造成供应后移、冻品出入库以及饲料价格波动对价格的扰动； 2024 年 12 月开始，生猪产能有所去化，但行业有利润，去化幅度有限， 处 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - In the short - term, the prices of hog, egg, and corn will experience fluctuations. The hog market is under supply pressure with increased supply and weakening demand; the egg market has both supply and demand increasing, with short - term demand supporting prices and long - term supply pressuring prices; the corn market is supported by reduced supply from the grassroots level and decreased imports in the short - term, but faces pressure from deep - processing losses and new wheat substitution in the long - term [6][55][92]. - In the long - term, the hog price is likely to decline due to strong supply and weak demand; the egg price is under pressure from increasing supply; the corn price has an upward drive but its upside is limited by substitutes [6][55][92]. Summary by Catalog 1. Hog 1.1 Market Review - As of April 30, the national hog price was 14.94 yuan/kg, up 0.27 yuan/kg from the end of last month; the Henan hog price was 14.75 yuan/kg, up 0.16 yuan/kg. The main 09 futures price closed at 13910 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton or 0.25% from the end of last month, and the 09 contract basis was 840 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan/ton [6]. 1.2 Supply - The inventory of breeding sows increased steadily from May to November 2024, with improved performance. From April to September, the supply is on the rise. The inventory decreased slightly from December 2024 to January 2025, rebounded in February, and decreased by 0.66% month - on - month in March, still 3.56% higher than the normal level. The supply pressure remains in the fourth quarter. The number of piglets increased year - on - year from November 2024 to February 2025, so the second - quarter slaughter pressure is high. The planned slaughter volume of enterprises in April increased month - on - month, the slaughter weight increased, and the fat - to - standard price difference was inverted [6][17]. 1.3 Demand - The monthly slaughter enterprise's开工 rate first decreased and then increased. After the May Day holiday, the pork market demand will weaken, but it will improve near the Dragon Boat Festival. However, the slaughter enterprises are still in loss, and the demand increment is limited. In April, the average daily slaughter of key slaughter enterprises was 121412 heads, up 4.62% from the previous month and 8.52% year - on - year; the slaughter gross profit was - 30 yuan/head, down 4.5 yuan/head from the previous month; the national frozen product inventory was 16.84%, down 0.01% from the end of last month and 0.46% from last year [6]. 1.4 Cost and Profit - The monthly piglet price decreased slightly, the breeding sow price was stable, and the breeding profit improved. As of April 30, the 15 - kg piglet sales price was 649 yuan/head, down 10 yuan/head from the end of last month; the binary sow price was 1634 yuan/head, unchanged from the end of last month. The breeding cost of enterprises with 5000 - 10000 sows was 13.31 yuan/kg, down 0.24 yuan/kg from the previous month; the cost of purchasing piglets for breeding was 13.87 yuan/kg, down 0.3 yuan/kg from the previous month. The self - breeding and self - raising profit of hogs was 145.34 yuan/head, up 24.34 yuan/head from the end of last month; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 118.88 yuan/head, up 87.95 yuan/head from the previous month [6]. 1.5 Strategy Suggestion - Under the background of increased and postponed supply, the hog price is under pressure, but the futures discount has already reflected the weak expectation, so the decline is limited. It is recommended to gradually stop profiting on short positions and short at high prices after a rebound. For the 07 contract, the resistance level is 13800 - 13900, and the support level is 13200 - 13300; for the 09 contract, the resistance level is 14600 - 14700, and the support level is 13700 - 13800. Sell out - of - the - money call options on the 07 and 09 contracts at high prices, partially stop profiting, and re - enter after a rebound [6]. 2. Egg 2.1 Market Review - As of April 30, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.19 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin from the end of March; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.22 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin. The main 06 contract closed at 2942 yuan/500 kg, up 74 yuan/500 kg from the end of March; the main contract basis was 58 yuan/500 kg, 86 yuan/500 kg stronger than at the end of March. The egg price first rebounded and then declined, and the futures followed the spot price [55]. 2.2 Supply - In May, the number of newly - opened laying hens corresponding to the replenishment in January 2025 decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, with a large opening volume. Coupled with the non - increasing elimination of old hens, the supply continued to accumulate. In the long - term, the high replenishment volume from February to April 2025 means more newly - opened laying hens from June to August 2025, and the long - term supply increase trend is difficult to reverse. In April 2025, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.329 billion, an increase of 0.011 billion month - on - month and 0.089 billion year - on - year [55]. 2.3 Demand - In early April, the downstream replenishment demand after the Tomb - sweeping Festival and the approaching May Day holiday boosted the egg price. After the May Day holiday, the channel may have replenishment demand, and the Dragon Boat Festival stocking demand increases, so the seasonal consumption of eggs improves. As of the end of April, the monthly sales volume of eggs in representative selling areas was 29500 tons, up 1.99% from March [55]. 2.4 Strategy Suggestion - The 06 contract is expected to fluctuate in a range after the May Day holiday. Pay attention to the performance of the 3100 resistance and 2900 support levels. Treat the 08 and 09 contracts with a bearish view in general, and pay attention to the impact of feed and elimination [55]. 3. Corn 3.1 Market Review - As of April 30, the平仓 price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2280 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the end of March; the main 2507 contract of corn was 2377 yuan/ton, up 89 yuan/ton from the end of March; the main contract basis was - 97 yuan/ton, 1 yuan/ton stronger than at the end of March. The corn price first fluctuated narrowly and then rose rapidly at the end of the month, and the futures contract first fell and then rose [92]. 3.2 Supply - The grassroots grain sales are basically over, and the grain source has transferred to the trading end. Traders are reluctant to sell, and the supply is tight, which supports the price. However, after the price rises in May, traders' willingness to sell at high prices may increase, and there is a demand for making room for wheat in North China, which will increase the supply periodically. In March, the corn import was 80000 tons, the same as the previous month and a 95.3% year - on - year decrease. The import of international grains decreased year - on - year [92]. 3.3 Demand - The inventory of hogs and poultry is increasing, which drives the recovery of feed demand. Although wheat substitution has an impact on corn feed demand, it has not been carried out on a large scale, and the cost - effectiveness of corn is still high. The deep - processing industry is in loss, the operating rate has declined, and the demand increment is limited. As of April 25, the weekly feed corn inventory days were 35.74 days, an increase of 2.15 days from the end of March; the operating rate of sample deep - processing enterprises was 58.37%, a decrease of 5.45% from the end of March [92]. 3.4 Strategy Suggestion - Generally, take a stable - to - strong view. Wait for the futures to pull back to go long, and be cautious about chasing high prices. For the 07 contract, pay attention to the 2400 resistance and 2280 - 2300 support levels; for the 09 contract, pay attention to the 2320 - 2330 support level [92].