Core Viewpoint - The cooperation between Guangxi and Hong Kong is transitioning from a traditional "front shop, back factory" model to a new phase of deep collaboration characterized by strategic integration and mutual support in key economic factors [1]. Group 1: Economic Factors - The five core economic factors driving growth—land, labor, capital, technology, and institutions—are highly complementary between Guangxi and Hong Kong, enabling a dual flow of resources and collaborative configuration [1][2]. - Guangxi has advantages in land, labor, and geographical location, while Hong Kong excels in capital allocation, institutional environment, and international regulatory alignment, creating a synergistic relationship [2][3]. Group 2: Structural Changes in Cooperation - The traditional cooperation model has room for structural improvement, as Guangxi has primarily been a supplier of basic products, relying on land and labor, which limits added value [3]. - The recent visit of the Guangxi delegation to Hong Kong aims to open new cooperation avenues in high-tech fields like artificial intelligence, marking a shift from "factor complementarity" to "capability co-construction" [3]. Group 3: Land and Infrastructure - Land is being redefined in the context of modern economic corridors, where it serves as a vehicle for institutional embedding and market connectivity [4]. - Guangxi's land and infrastructure are positioned to facilitate Hong Kong's access to the ASEAN market, transforming Guangxi into a strategic hub [4][5]. Group 4: Financial Cooperation - Hong Kong, as a major global financial center, provides a platform for Guangxi enterprises to overcome financing challenges and achieve asset securitization [6]. - The dual flow of capital between Hong Kong and Guangxi is creating a positive cycle, with Hong Kong capital seeking investment opportunities in Guangxi's infrastructure and industry upgrades [6]. Group 5: Talent and AI Collaboration - Cooperation is shifting from low-end labor to high-end talent sharing and professional service collaboration, particularly in fields like artificial intelligence and digital economy [7]. - The collaboration aims to establish a cross-border AI cooperation platform, integrating Hong Kong's international innovation resources with Guangxi's market access capabilities [8]. Group 6: Strategic Outlook - The essence of Guangxi-Hong Kong cooperation is a reorganization of comparative advantages and functional upgrades, with both regions contributing unique strengths to expand strategic opportunities [9]. - Continuous efforts to break down barriers to resource flow and deepen collaboration in areas like AI, cross-border finance, and tourism will drive the partnership towards a more integrated framework [9][10].

Group 1 - The national market price of edible agricultural products increased by 0.4% month-on-month in January [1] Group 2 - The wholesale price of grain in 36 major cities decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, remaining unchanged year-on-year [2] - The wholesale price of edible oil decreased by 0.3% month-on-month and fell by 1.5% year-on-year [2] - The wholesale price of pork increased by 4.4% month-on-month but decreased by 16.5% year-on-year [2] - The wholesale price of beef increased by 0.2% month-on-month and rose by 6.5% year-on-year [2] - The wholesale price of lamb increased by 1.2% month-on-month and rose by 4.0% year-on-year [2] - The wholesale price of eggs increased by 4.6% month-on-month but decreased by 18.2% year-on-year [2] - The wholesale price of broiler chickens decreased by 0.3% month-on-month and fell by 6.3% year-on-year [2] - The wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables decreased by 4.4% month-on-month but increased by 8.8% year-on-year [2] - The wholesale price of 6 types of fruits increased by 1.8% month-on-month and rose by 3.8% year-on-year [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The domestic commodity futures market closed mostly higher on February 25, 2026, with base metals leading the gains [1]. - The A - share market is expected to continue a mild upward trend after the Spring Festival, but the slope will be slower than in January, pricing in the warm Spring Festival consumption and technology event hotspots. The black metal and domestic bond markets may continue to fluctuate after the festival [16]. - The US economy shows a pattern of overall slowdown in expansion and structural differentiation in multiple fields. The US GDP growth rate slowed significantly in the fourth quarter, with personal consumption being the main drag, and inflation stickiness still exists [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures all showed varying degrees of increase on February 25, 2026, with the CSI 500 futures having a relatively large daily increase of 1.61% [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures mostly declined on February 25, 2026, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures having a relatively large daily decline of 0.48% [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index increased by 0.15% on February 25, 2026, and the US dollar mid - price decreased by 225 pips [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate increased by 23.34 bp on February 25, 2026, and the 10 - year Chinese government bond yield increased by 1.24 bp [2]. Popular Industry Fluctuations - On February 25, 2026, most industries showed an upward trend, with non - ferrous metals, steel, and basic chemicals having relatively large daily increases of 3.53%, 4.26%, and 2.37% respectively. The consumer services and media industries declined, with decreases of 0.52% and 0.92% respectively [5]. Overseas Commodity Fluctuations - **Energy**: On February 24, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil decreased by 0.35%, ICE Brent crude oil decreased by 0.14%, NYMEX natural gas decreased by 2.94%, and ICE UK natural gas decreased by 4.75% [8]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold decreased by 1.25% on February 24, 2026, while CONEX silver increased by 0.57% [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper, LME aluminum, LME zinc, LME tin, etc. showed different trends on February 24, 2026. For example, LME copper increased by 2.54% [8]. - **Agricultural Products**: CBOT soybeans, CBOT soybean oil, and other agricultural products also had different price changes on February 24, 2026. For example, CBOT soybean oil increased by 1.05% [8]. Macro Summary - **Domestic Macro**: During the Spring Festival, travel and consumption were strong, with the cross - regional passenger flow in the first 20 days of the Spring Festival travel season reaching 5.08 billion person - times, a record high. However, real estate sales were at a seasonal low, and the social financing in January started steadily. Due to the Spring Festival misalignment, the social financing data needs to be observed in combination with January - February data [16]. - **Overseas Macro**: The US economy shows a pattern of overall slowdown in expansion and structural differentiation in multiple fields. The GDP growth rate slowed significantly in the fourth quarter, personal consumption was the main drag, and inflation stickiness still exists [16]. - **Large - scale Assets**: Geopolitical uncertainties and Trump's tariff policies may support the prices of gold and silver in the short term. The crude oil market is dominated by geopolitical uncertainties, and the A - share market is expected to continue a mild upward trend after the Spring Festival. The black metal and domestic bond markets may continue to fluctuate, and the RMB may continue to strengthen in the second quarter [16]. Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; stock index options are expected to be volatile; treasury bond futures are expected to be volatile [17]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [17]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping to Europe is expected to be volatile [17]. - **Black Building Materials**: Steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are all expected to be volatile [17]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Many non - ferrous metals and new materials such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are expected to be volatile, with some showing a slightly stronger trend [17]. - **Energy Chemicals**: Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, etc. are expected to be volatile [19]. - **Agriculture**: Many agricultural products such as cotton, natural rubber, and soybean oil are expected to be volatile, with some showing a slightly stronger trend, while sugar is expected to be volatile and slightly weaker [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Before the USDA report, analysts estimated that U.S. soybean export sales from February 1 to 19, 2026, would net increase by 40 - 110 tons, with the 2025/26 market year expected to net increase by 40 - 100 tons and the 2026/27 market year by 0 - 10 tons. U.S. soybean meal export sales are expected to net increase by 25 - 50 tons, and U.S. soybean oil export sales are expected to net decrease by 1 ton to net increase by 1.6 tons [1] - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency will submit a new biofuel blending volume authorization proposal to the White House on Wednesday, and the rule may be finalized by the end of March [1] - MPOA data shows that Malaysia's crude palm oil production from February 1 to 20, 2026, decreased by 12.29% compared to the previous month, with varying decreases in different regions [1] - Independent inspection company AmSpecAgri reported that Malaysia's palm oil product exports from February 1 to 25, 2026, decreased by 16.1% compared to the previous month, while ship - cargo inspection agency ITS reported a 12.1% decrease [1] - Statistics Canada data shows that Canada's rapeseed crushing volume in January 2026 was 1,053,420 tons, a 2.17% decrease from the previous month and a 4.24% increase from the same period last year. Rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal production also had corresponding changes [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - U.S. soybean export sales from February 1 to 19, 2026, are expected to net increase by 40 - 110 tons, with different expectations for different market years. U.S. soybean meal export sales are expected to net increase by 25 - 50 tons, and U.S. soybean oil export sales are expected to net decrease by 1 ton to net increase by 1.6 tons [1] U.S. Biofuel Regulations - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency will submit a new biofuel blending volume authorization proposal to the White House on Wednesday, and the rule may be finalized by the end of March [1] Malaysia's Palm Oil Production and Exports - Malaysia's crude palm oil production from February 1 to 20, 2026, decreased by 12.29% compared to the previous month, with different decreases in different regions [1] - Malaysia's palm oil product exports from February 1 to 25, 2026, decreased by 16.1% (AmSpecAgri data) and 12.1% (ITS data) compared to the previous month [1] Canada's Rapeseed Crushing - Canada's rapeseed crushing volume in January 2026 was 1,053,420 tons, a 2.17% decrease from the previous month and a 4.24% increase from the same period last year. Rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal production also had corresponding changes [1] Spot Prices - Spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from February 11 to 25, 2026, are provided [1][2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Corn prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term and the focus in the long - term is on import and domestic auction policies due to supply gap [2] - Starch prices are supported in the short - term and the key factor for long - term pricing is downstream consumption rhythm [3] - For sugar, the international market anticipates increased production in the 25/26 season, and the domestic market's price is affected by global supply and demand [4] - Cotton is suitable for long - term long positions as demand is expected to improve and new - season planting area may decline [6] - For eggs, the 05 contract is affected by farmers' chicken culling, and the supply pressure in the second quarter can be alleviated by observing the price difference [13] - Apple prices for general - quality fruit are weakening while good - quality fruit remains stable, with different market situations in production and sales areas [16] - Pig prices are under pressure in the short - term, with supply and demand both increasing before the Spring Festival, and futures are affected by emotions [16] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: In different regions, prices of corn and starch changed from 2026/02/11 to 2026/02/25. For example, the price in Changchun remained 2180, and the processing profit of starch increased by 14 [2] - **Market Analysis**: Near the Spring Festival, corn trade will end soon, and prices are expected to fluctuate. Starch industry's开机率 decreased slightly, and prices are supported in the short - term [2][3] Sugar - **Price Data**: From 2026/02/11 to 2026/02/25, sugar prices in some regions remained stable, and the import profit and other data changed [4] - **Market Analysis**: The international market expects increased production, and the domestic market's price is affected by global supply and demand [4] Cotton - **Price Data**: From 2026/02/11 to 2026/02/25, cotton prices increased by 300, and other relevant data also changed [18] - **Market Analysis**: Low initial inventory offsets production increase, and demand is expected to improve, suitable for long - term long positions [6] Eggs - **Price Data**: From 2026/02/11 to 2026/02/25, egg prices in some regions changed, and the basis and substitute prices also had changes [12] - **Market Analysis**: After the pre - holiday stocking, egg prices stopped rising and started to fall, and the 05 contract is affected by chicken culling [13] Apples - **Price Data**: From 2026/02/11 to 2026/02/25, apple prices remained stable, and inventory decreased [15][16] - **Market Analysis**: Apple de - stocking accelerated during the holiday, and prices of general - quality fruit are weakening while good - quality fruit remains stable [16] Pigs - **Price Data**: From 2026/02/11 to 2026/02/25, pig prices in different regions decreased, and the basis decreased by 350 [16] - **Market Analysis**: Pig prices are weak before the Spring Festival, with supply and demand both increasing, and futures are affected by emotions [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, the current low price of raw sugar and its continuous discount to the Brazilian ethanol conversion price suggest a possibility of reducing the sugar - to - cane ratio in the new Brazilian sugar season after April. Domestically, high inventory suppresses sugar prices in the short - term, but there may be a rebound after the northern hemisphere's sugar harvest [2][3]. - For cotton, after the Spring Festival, the Zhengzhou cotton futures increased in positions and prices, speculating on the peak season in March in advance. If the downstream startup situation after the festival is favorable, there is still room for price increase, and the strategy is to buy on dips [4][7]. - For protein meal, due to the rumor of extended customs clearance for South American soybeans, the price of soybean meal increased. Fundamentally, the improvement in US soybean export sales and China's expected increase in US soybean purchases drive up the CBOT soybean price. The protein meal price may be bottoming out [9][10]. - For oils, due to the rumor of extended customs clearance for South American soybeans, the short - term price of soybean oil is stronger than that of palm oil and rapeseed oil. Fundamentally, the low - level inventories in China and India at the end of January and the decline in Malaysian exports in February make the oil prices weak, but the medium - term outlook is bullish, and the strategy is to wait for the prices to stop falling at low levels before buying [12][15]. - For eggs, the opening price after the Spring Festival is neutral, with limited inventory accumulation. The short - term spot price is expected to decline slightly, and the near - month futures may bottom out. The far - end futures need to pay attention to valuation pressure [17][18]. - For pigs, the market supply is large, and the consumption is weak. The spot price is expected to be weak, and the futures price will continue to squeeze the premium, especially for the near - month contracts. In the medium - term, pay attention to the support for the far - month contracts due to the increasing sentiment of hoarding and secondary fattening [20][21]. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Market Data**: An analysis institution estimates that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 sugar season will be 40.5 million tons, the same as the previous year. As of February 18, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased to 43 from 53 the previous week, and the sugar quantity decreased to 1.577 million tons from 1.83 million tons. As of February 15, 2026, India's sugar production reached 22.51 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.74 million tons; Thailand's sugar production was 6.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.35 million tons. In January 2026, China produced 3.21 million tons of sugar, with a cumulative production of 6.89 million tons in the 2025/26 sugar season, a year - on - year decrease of 0.602 million tons; the cumulative sales volume was 2.7 million tons, and the cumulative sales - to - production ratio was 39.1%, a year - on - year decrease of 10.75 percentage points; the industrial inventory was 4.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.43 million tons. In December 2025, China imported 0.58 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 0.19 million tons [2]. - **Strategy**: Do not be overly bearish. Domestically, maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the short - term and expect a possible rebound after the northern hemisphere's sugar harvest [3]. Cotton - **Market Data**: From February 5 to 12, 2026, the US current - year cotton export sales reached 106,800 tons, a new high for the week in 2026, with a cumulative export sales of 1.9899 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 142,900 tons. As of February 6, the spinning mill's operating rate was 60.5%, a 3.7 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.53 million tons, a decrease of 0.12 million tons from the previous week. In January 2026, the predicted global cotton production was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the December 2025 prediction, and an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous year. In December 2025, China imported 0.18 million tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 0.04 million tons [4][6]. - **Strategy**: After the Spring Festival, the Zhengzhou cotton futures increased in positions and prices. Pay attention to the downstream startup situation after the festival. If it is favorable, there is still room for price increase, and the strategy is to buy on dips [7]. Protein Meal - **Market Data**: From February 5 to 12, 2026, the US exported 0.8 million tons of soybeans, with a current - year cumulative export of 35.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.63 million tons. As of February 21, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 32.3%, a 4.1 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year. From January 30 to February 6, 2026, the domestic sample soybean arrival was 1.56 million tons, a decrease of 0.26 million tons from the previous week; the sample soybean port inventory was 5.91 million tons, a decrease of 0.8 million tons from the previous week; the sample oil mill's soybean meal inventory was 0.9 million tons, an increase of 0.04 million tons from the previous week. In January 2026, the predicted global soybean production was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons from the December 2025 prediction, and a decrease of 1.48 million tons from the previous year [9]. - **Strategy**: Due to the rumor of extended customs clearance for South American soybeans, the price of soybean meal increased. The protein meal price may be bottoming out [10]. Oils - **Market Data**: From February 1 to 20, 2026, the palm oil production in southern Malaysia decreased by 22.24% month - on - month. In January 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.58 million tons, a decrease of 0.25 million tons from the previous month; the export volume was 1.48 million tons, an increase of 0.16 million tons from the previous month; the inventory was 2.82 million tons, a decrease of 0.23 million tons from the previous month. From February 1 to 20, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil product export volume decreased compared with the previous month. As of the end of January 2026, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.75 million tons, the same as the previous month. From January 30 to February 6, 2026, the domestic sample data of the three major oils' inventory increased by 0.03 million tons to 1.92 million tons. Indonesia cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% in 2026 and will increase the crude palm oil export fee from 10% to 12.5% from March 1, 2026 [12][14]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, the price of soybean oil is stronger than that of palm oil and rapeseed oil. The medium - term outlook is bullish, and wait for the prices to stop falling at low levels before buying [15]. Eggs - **Market Data**: The national egg price was stable with a few increases yesterday. The average price in the main production areas increased slightly by 0.01 yuan to 2.86 yuan per catty. The supply is normal, and traders mostly replenish stocks after the Spring Festival, with a normal market digestion speed [17]. - **Strategy**: The opening price after the Spring Festival is neutral, with limited inventory accumulation. The short - term spot price is expected to decline slightly, and the near - month futures may bottom out. The far - end futures need to pay attention to valuation pressure [18]. Pigs - **Market Data**: The domestic pig price continued to decline yesterday, with a narrowing decline. The supply of marketable pigs is abundant, and the demand support is limited [20]. - **Strategy**: The market supply is large, and the consumption is weak. The spot price is expected to be weak, and the futures price will continue to squeeze the premium, especially for the near - month contracts. In the medium - term, pay attention to the support for the far - month contracts due to the increasing sentiment of hoarding and secondary fattening [21].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. soybean industry views China as a crucial market, with expectations for stable exports despite past trade tensions [1][2][3] Group 1: U.S.-China Soybean Trade Dynamics - China remains the largest export market for U.S. soybeans, typically accounting for about half of U.S. soybean exports, generating hundreds of billions of dollars in value for U.S. farmers and the supply chain [2] - The U.S. soybean export association anticipates that U.S. soybean exports to China will stabilize around 25 million tons annually, following a total of 22.6 million tons in the 2024/25 market year [1][2] - Recent improvements in U.S.-China trade relations have led to China fulfilling its soybean purchase commitments, indicating a potential recovery in trade volumes [1][2] Group 2: Economic Impact and Employment - The U.S.-China soybean trade supports farm employment and creates numerous jobs in rural communities, transportation, export terminals, and related services [2] - The relationship is described as mutually beneficial, with both countries relying on each other for agricultural needs, particularly in livestock, aquaculture, and food processing sectors [2] Group 3: Importance of Stable Trade Relations - A stable and predictable U.S.-China trade relationship is deemed essential for the U.S. soybean industry, as uncertainty from tariffs and policy changes can significantly disrupt exports [3] - The inclusion of agricultural trade in high-level U.S.-China dialogues is seen as a positive sign for future trade stability [3] - A rules-based and predictable trade environment is expected to encourage investment in infrastructure and sustainable development, benefiting consumers and producers globally [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that President Trump's large-scale import tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act exceeded legal authority, leading to a rollback of additional tariffs on Chinese goods [2] - Following the ruling, the White House announced a temporary 10% tariff on global imports starting February 24, with a potential adjustment to 15% [2] - Trump's long-standing trade strategy aims to pressure trade partners to reduce the U.S. trade deficit, a tactic that has evolved from targeting Japan to focusing on China [2][4] Group 2 - The historical context of the Plaza Accord in 1985, which led to a significant appreciation of the yen and a subsequent economic downturn in Japan, is frequently referenced by Trump to justify his trade policies against China [4][6] - Unlike Japan, China maintains an independent foreign policy, a robust foreign exchange reserve, and a diversified trade network, which enhances its resilience against external pressures [6] - China's response to U.S. tariffs includes reciprocal tariffs on U.S. liquefied natural gas and agricultural products, impacting the stability of U.S. downstream supply chains [6][8] Group 3 - As of February 24, the newly implemented 10% temporary tariff is in effect, with China monitoring the situation and reserving the right to adjust countermeasures [8] - The trade relationship between the U.S. and China is characterized by ongoing negotiations and adjustments, with both sides seeking to balance their positions amid rising tensions [8][9] - The effectiveness of Trump's tariff strategy in achieving its intended goals remains uncertain, as both parties are adjusting their stances in preparation for upcoming high-level interactions [9]

Core Viewpoint - Thailand's rice export volume and value are projected to decline significantly in 2026, prompting the Thai Rice Exporters Association to revise its export targets downward, indicating a challenging market environment for Thai rice exports [1][2] Group 1: Export Volume and Value - In January 2026, Thailand's rice export volume is expected to be 530,300 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17.5% [1] - The export value for the same period is projected to be 9.707 billion Thai Baht, down 30.7% year-on-year [1] - The revised export target for 2026 is set at 7.03 million tons, an 11% decrease compared to previous estimates, with an expected export value of approximately 130 billion Thai Baht or about 4 billion USD, marking the lowest level since 2021 [1] Group 2: Currency and Pricing Impact - The Thai Rice Exporters Association urges the government to enhance currency management, suggesting a competitive exchange rate should be maintained between 33 to 34 Thai Baht per USD [1] - A 1 Thai Baht appreciation is estimated to increase the price of Thai rice by 12 to 15 USD per ton, with the current exchange rate at approximately 31 Thai Baht per USD, indicating a relatively strong Baht [1] - Compared to the same period in 2025, the price of Thai rice has increased by about 40 USD per ton, which has weakened its price competitiveness [1] Group 3: External Market Conditions - Global rice supply continues to increase, with India, the largest producer and exporter, achieving a record production of 152 million tons, significantly impacting international market prices [1] - Major competitors such as Vietnam and Pakistan have also reported good harvests, contributing to a generally loose global supply and intensifying market competition [1][2] - Industry insiders note that while Thailand's rice production is expected to increase in 2025, weak export growth may exert downward pressure on domestic rice prices [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, under the dominance of macro uncertainties, the commodity market may fluctuate with a slight upward trend. The Fed officials' hawkish signals, the US government's tariff policies, and the tense situation between the US and Iran are the main factors affecting the market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Before the holiday, the overall commodity market declined slightly by 0.23%. Precious metals led the gain at 3.29%, followed by non - ferrous metals and agricultural products with increases of 1.58% and 0.23% respectively. Black metals and energy - chemical products decreased by 1.1% and 1.11% respectively [2][6]. - Among specific varieties, the top - gainers were soybean No.1, silver, and apple, with increases of 6.76%, 5.23%, and 3.15% respectively. The top - losers were palm oil, asphalt, and styrene, with decreases of 3.63%, 3.56%, and 3.49% respectively [2][6]. - The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market decreased slightly, and the fluctuations of each sector converged. The overall market scale increased significantly, and funds in each sector showed net inflows [2][6]. 3.2 Market Outlook - During the holiday, Fed officials' signals were hawkish, and the US Supreme Court's ruling on the tariff policy and Trump's new 10% global tariff affected the US dollar. The tense US - Iran situation supported the oil price. In the short - term, the commodity market may fluctuate with a slight upward trend [2]. 3.3 Sector - specific Analysis - **Precious Metals**: Overseas precious metals prices soared after sharp fluctuations during the holiday. With the US GDP falling short of expectations, strong core PCE, and the weakening US dollar due to the tariff policy ruling, and the lack of substantial progress in US - Iran negotiations, the strength of precious metals may continue [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Affected by the Spring Festival, terminal demand and investment weakened. The market believes that the Fed has internal differences, and the US dollar's upward trend has ended. Most varieties' inventories increased, but some supply - side supports remained. In the short - term, non - ferrous metals may be more likely to rise than fall [3]. - **Black Metals**: The apparent demand for rebar dropped to a low, and production remained at a low level. The inventory accumulation was lower than the same period in previous years. After the holiday, iron - water production is expected to continue the recovery trend, and there is also some restocking demand. Overseas iron - ore swaps weakened during the holiday, and concerns about iron - ore oversupply persisted. Coke inventory increased slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness was average. The sector may fluctuate in the short - term [3]. - **Energy**: International oil prices continued to rise during the holiday. The US - Iran situation affecting the Strait of Hormuz and the unexpected drawdown of US crude and gasoline inventories in EIA data on February 20th pushed up oil prices. The next round of US - Iran negotiations is scheduled for February 26th in Geneva, and geopolitical factors will continue to dominate the oil market's fluctuations in the next two weeks [4]. - **Chemical Industry**: The strong oil price provides cost support, and the warming macro - sentiment is beneficial. After the holiday, domestic downstream industries will gradually resume work. For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand situation may improve in the second quarter due to planned maintenance and expected demand recovery. For polypropylene, considering controllable supply pressure, rigid demand from downstream factories, and significant cost influence, the price may trend upward [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: During the holiday, the supply - demand structure of the new US soybean crop tightened year - on - year, and the optimistic expectation of the US biodiesel policy supported the strength of overseas oilseeds. The good short - term export and crushing data of US soybeans boosted prices, but the tariff policy may bring uncertainties to US soybean exports [4]. 3.4 Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally had positive returns, with an average return rate of about 1.37% - 1.75%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 3,182.54 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 1.20%. The trading volume decreased by 57.09% [36]. - The energy - chemical ETF (represented by the Jianxin Energy - Chemical Futures ETF) had a return rate of 0.14%, with a scale of 21.13 billion yuan and a growth rate of 1.79%. The trading volume decreased by 33.79% [36]. - The soybean meal ETF (represented by the Huaxia Feed Soybean Meal Futures ETF) had a return rate of 2.26%, with a scale of 27.19 billion yuan and a growth rate of 0.43%. The trading volume increased by 3.91% [36]. - The non - ferrous metal ETF (represented by the Dacheng Non - Ferrous Metal Futures ETF) had a return rate of 1.34%, with a scale of 76.79 billion yuan and a decline rate of 2.09%. The trading volume decreased by 36.37% [36]. - The silver fund (represented by the Guotou Ruixin Silver Futures (LOF)) had a return rate of 6.32%, with a scale of 104.47 billion yuan and no change in scale. The trading volume increased by 565.95% [36].