Group 1 - The commodity market experienced a significant decline, with gold, silver, crude oil, and industrial metals leading the drop, following President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which triggered market sell-offs [1][4] - Gold prices fell by 5%, reaching a two-week low, while silver saw a decline of over 7% [3] - The MSCI global index dropped by 0.5%, marking a cumulative decline of 1.5% since its record high on January 27 [2] Group 2 - Crude oil prices decreased by nearly 5% from recent highs, and LME copper fell by 3% [4] - The market had anticipated a successor to Powell who would promote aggressive monetary easing, but Warsh's appointment disrupted this expectation, strengthening the dollar and making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies [4][5] - The recent sell-off in precious metals was exacerbated by the CME Group's announcement to raise margin requirements for metal futures contracts, leading to a significant increase in forced liquidations [6] Group 3 - Analysts noted that the current market conditions reflect a synchronized sell-off of precious metals and equities, indicating that investors perceive Warsh's stance as more hawkish, which could lead to higher interest rates for an extended period [5] - The energy market also faced downward pressure due to easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, with reports suggesting that Iran is engaging in serious dialogue with Washington [6][7] - Concerns about high inventories and weak demand ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday are impacting copper and iron ore markets, with expectations of reduced trading activity as the holiday approaches [7]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 2 月 3 日星期周二 | | | 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | 期是上半年实施。 | 8、截止到 | 2026 | 年第 | 5 | 周末，国内三大食用油库存总量为 | 199.39 | 万吨，周度下降 | 5.10 | 万吨， | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 环比下降 | 2.49%，同比下降 | 2.88%。其中豆油库存为 | 109.12 | 万吨，周度下降 | 0.51 | 万吨，环 | 比下降 | 0.47%，同比增加 | 7.61%；食用棕油库存为 | 63.93 | 万吨，周度下降 | 3.26 | 万吨，环比下 | | | | | | | 降 | 4.85%，同比增加 | 48.26%；菜油库存为 | 26.34 | ...

Group 1: Corn Market - The corn closing price was 2261 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.7%. The sentiment in the market is bearish as pre-holiday stockpiling by enterprises is nearing completion, while grassroots grain selling sentiment is recovering [4][15]. - Weather conditions this week are noteworthy, with warming forecasts in Northeast China. This may accelerate the sale of grain lacking standard storage conditions, but the overall low temperatures may only lead to a temporary drop in spot prices. Post-holiday, weather-related risk factors will gain more attention [4][15]. - Overall inventory in Northeast China remains at historical lows, with no significant rebound expected. Without additional fundamental information, market focus is shifting towards post-holiday speculative sentiment [5][16]. - The corn main contract is expected to maintain a range-bound trading pattern, observing support around 2250 and resistance at 2330 [6][17]. Group 2: Soybean Meal Market - Overnight CBOT soybeans followed the decline in commodity prices, balancing between reduced production expectations due to drought in Argentina and the realization of abundant harvests in Brazil. As of January 31, Brazil's soybean harvest progress was at 11.4%, with Mato Grosso state at 33.2%, advancing by 13.5 percentage points weekly [6][17]. - The soybean meal fundamentals show no marginal changes, following the weakness in overseas markets. Concerns about potential tightness in future soybean supply and uncertainties in reserve release schedules have somewhat elevated price resilience [6][17]. - The current shipping schedule for Brazilian soybeans is favorable for crushing profits, which may encourage commercial oil mills to actively purchase. However, if the pressure from South American arrivals materializes, there remains a risk of a decline in meal prices impacting crushing margins [6][17]. Group 3: Egg Market - The spot price for eggs in major production areas remains stable, with an average price of approximately 3.33 yuan/jin in Hebei, unchanged from the previous day. Short-term demand for pre-holiday stockpiling is the main support, but demand is expected to weaken post-holiday, indicating a potential shift to a bearish pricing rhythm [8][19]. - In the medium to long term, attention should be paid to the actual progress of capacity reduction. Historically, the year 2025 may be a loss year, potentially leading to improvements in supply-demand relationships, while the market outlook for 2026 appears positive, albeit with risks of phase-based expectation overshooting [8][19]. Group 4: Pork Market - The average price of live pigs in major production areas was approximately 12.56 yuan/kg. After a continuous decline, the market has seen a rebound. Despite the proximity to the Spring Festival, which may cause fluctuations, the near-term futures contracts have already priced in expectations of a decline [10][21]. - The key observation point for the 2026 market will be the depth and sustainability of capacity reduction. Major enterprises are increasingly using futures for risk management, which may alter traditional understandings of the "pig cycle" price fluctuation patterns [10][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations, leading to a rebound in risk appetite and a strengthening of the US dollar index. The short - term economic downward pressure has eased, and the market risk preference has recovered. The short - term dollar is expected to continue to rise [15]. - Gold prices continued to decline on Monday, and silver hit the daily limit down. The market is still digesting the negative impact of Wash being nominated as the Fed Chairman. The short - term sharp decline of precious metals may end, but it is difficult to rise rapidly, and it is expected to enter a volatile stage [13]. - A - shares had a sharp adjustment, and the Shanghai Composite Index barely held above 4000 points. The weakening of the "inflation up, bulk prices up, economic recovery" logic led to a sharp decline in related sectors and dragged down the stock market. In the short term, the stock index lacks the momentum to rise and still needs to oscillate to digest the capital pressure [23]. - For commodities, different varieties have different trends. For example, palm oil exports increased, and the inventory decreased; iron ore supply pressure is high, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly; coal prices are expected to be strong in February; and the prices of some energy - chemical products such as crude oil and asphalt are affected by geopolitical and market factors [37][34][32]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US 1 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.6, the highest since August 2022, with an expected 48.5 and a previous value of 47.9. Fed Bostic expects no rate cuts in 2026. Gold prices continued to decline on Monday, and silver hit the daily limit down. The short - term sharp decline of precious metals may end, but it is difficult to rise rapidly, and it is expected to enter a volatile stage. It is recommended to wait for the market volatility to decline, and the adjustment pressure of silver is greater than that of gold, and the gold - silver ratio will rise [11][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump called on Republicans to take control of the election process from the states. The US 1 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was the highest since February 2022, which led to a rebound in risk appetite and a strengthening of the US dollar index. The short - term dollar is expected to continue to rise [14][15]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US 1 - month ISM manufacturing PMI far exceeded expectations. Oracle launched a $25 billion bond issuance. The US government shutdown postponed the release of the January employment report. It is expected that the US stock market will maintain high - level volatility [17][18][19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market had a sharp adjustment, and the Shanghai Composite Index barely held above 4000 points. The weakening of the "inflation up, bulk prices up, economic recovery" logic led to a sharp decline in related sectors and dragged down the stock market. In the short term, the stock index lacks the momentum to rise and still needs to oscillate to digest the capital pressure [23]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank carried out 750 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 755 billion yuan on the day. The performance of treasury bond futures was slightly weak. It is recommended to moderately pay attention to the opportunity of shorting T [25]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - 276 steel enterprises completed the publicity of ultra - low emission transformation. The 2 - month auto market will enter a stage of adjustment. Steel prices followed the decline of peripheral metals. The inventory of building materials has increased significantly, and the demand has weakened seasonally. It is recommended to treat steel prices with an oscillatory mindset, and the short - term decline space is expected to be limited [27][30]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On February 2, the price of steam coal in the northern port market remained stable. With the approach of the festival, the supply has shrunk, and some terminal enterprises still have pre - holiday replenishment needs, which support the coal price to a certain extent. It is expected that the coal price will be strong in February, and attention should be paid to the temperature and new energy power generation in February [32]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The construction of the port and railway in Baffin Island was approved to support the expansion plan of Mary River Mine. The supply of iron ore is at a high level, and the demand is temporarily static. It is expected that the iron ore price will oscillate weakly [34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - As of January 30, 2026, the domestic palm oil inventory was 701,400 tons, a decrease of 40,900 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 5.51%. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 31 increased by 17.93% month - on - month. After the macro - sentiment stabilizes, long positions can be continued to be arranged [36][37]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The Brazilian soybean harvest progress is slightly faster than that of the same period last year. The domestic soybean meal inventory of oil mills has increased. It is expected that the domestic and foreign futures prices will maintain a weak - oscillatory trend [38][40]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The copper concentrate processing fee is at a low level, and the EU is considering new sanctions on Russian copper. The copper price has dropped significantly due to the decline of precious metals. In the short term, the volatility is still relatively large. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium - term and wait - and - see for arbitrage [41][42][44]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The domestic social inventory of lead ingots has increased. The lead market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is expected that the social inventory will increase seasonally. It is recommended to wait - and - see in the short - term and pay attention to the medium - term long - position opportunity [45]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc price has dropped significantly. The domestic inventory has increased seasonally. It is recommended to wait - and - see temporarily and manage positions well [48][49]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The supply of tin is expected to ease, but the supply concentration is high. The short - term tin price is expected to be weak and oscillatory. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the supply recovery expectation and the improvement of consumption [51][52]. 3.2.10 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Iran said it was willing to close or suspend its nuclear program. Trump reached a trade agreement with India. The oil price has dropped significantly. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the changes in the Iranian situation [53][55]. 3.2.11 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries has decreased, and the social inventory has increased. The short - term asphalt price is under pressure, and the subsequent trend depends on whether there are sudden changes in the geopolitical situation [57]. 3.2.12 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - Iran hopes to avoid war with the US through diplomatic efforts. It is recommended to short the methanol 05 contract, with a stop - profit point of 2183 yuan/ton, and aggressive investors can lower the stop - profit to the previous box area of 2120 - 2150 yuan/ton [58][60]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in East China ports has changed. The short - term styrene market has large fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait - and - see and reduce the risk exposure before the Spring Festival [61][63]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is stable. The high - supply, weak - demand, and high - inventory situation has not changed. The short - term rebound height of caustic soda is expected to be limited, and the disk may be under pressure again [64][65]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder has risen, but the transaction is not good. The PVC market is under supply pressure, and the downstream demand is expected to weaken. The current rise is mainly due to policy expectations, and the upward rebound height should not be overly optimistic, but it may still be relatively strong in the short - term under the catalysis of sentiment [66][67].

农产品早报 2026-02-03 五矿期货农产品早报 目前原糖价格已经跌破巴西乙醇折算价的支撑，在今年 4 月后巴西新榨季生产存在着下调甘蔗制糖比例 的可能性。等待 2 月北半球开始收榨，增产利空基本兑现以后，国际糖价可能会迎来一波反弹。国内当 前进口糖源供应逐步减少，随着糖价跌至低位水平，短线往下空间或有限，暂时观望。 棉花 五矿期货农产品团队 组长、生鲜品研究员 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 王俊 周一郑州白糖期货价格小幅下跌，郑糖 5 月合约收盘价报 5207 元/吨，较上个交易日下跌 41 元/吨，或 0.78%。现货方面，广西制糖集团报价 5270-5350 元/吨，较上个交易日下跌 20 元/吨。 杨泽元 软商品、油脂油料研究员 StoneX 预计 2025/26 榨季全球食糖市场将维持供应过剩，预估过剩量为 290 万吨。印度全国糖业合作联 盟联合会(NFCSF)发布数据显示，2025/26 榨季截至 2026 年 1 月 3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - In the long - term, the policy's support for the capital market remains unchanged. For stocks, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. For bonds, the market is expected to continue in a volatile pattern. For precious metals, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines for now. For various industrial products and agricultural products, specific analysis should be based on their respective supply - demand situations, cost factors, and market sentiment [4][8][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro - finance 1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: The Shanghai Gold Exchange adjusted the margin level and the daily limit for silver deferred contracts. Dozens of varieties such as Shanghai silver, palladium, and platinum hit the daily limit down. Tesla plans to mass - produce dry electrode technology and will unveil its third - generation humanoid robot, with an expected annual production of one million units. Geely's sales in January exceeded BYD's, with overseas sales increasing by 121.2% and 51.47% respectively year - on - year. The DRAM contract price for OEMs is around $10 - 20 per GB, much lower than the spot price [2]. - **Strategy View**: In the long - term, the policy supports the capital market. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the market rhythm, and the strategy should be to buy on dips [4]. 1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes in closing prices. China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3, and the manufacturing industry maintained an expansion trend. Citigroup Research warned that the gold valuation has reached an extreme level [5]. - **Strategy View**: The economic recovery foundation is not yet solid, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, and the bond market is expected to continue in a volatile pattern [8]. 1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 3.61%, and Shanghai silver fell 17.04%. On Monday, gold and silver were heavily sold, hitting the daily limit down. The US manufacturing PMI in January 2026 was significantly higher than expected, indicating a recovery in the industry [9]. - **Strategy View**: The sharp reversal of the macro - market expectation led to a large - scale exit of long positions. The strong recovery of the US manufacturing industry may make the Fed more cautious about interest rate cuts, suppressing precious metal prices. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [11]. 2. Non - ferrous Metals 2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: The US dollar index continued to rise, and non - ferrous metals declined. LME copper inventories decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventories increased slightly [13]. - **Strategy View**: Trump's plan to start a strategic key mineral reserve program and the better - than - expected manufacturing PMI in the US and the eurozone have eased the sentiment. The copper supply is expected to be stable, and the copper price is expected to stabilize [14]. 2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: The sharp decline in silver prices spread pessimism, and the aluminum price dropped significantly. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continued to accumulate, and the demand was weak [15]. - **Strategy View**: Although the domestic demand is weak, the LME aluminum inventory is relatively low, and the aluminum price has strong support. If the precious metal volatility decreases and the domestic inventory situation is better than the seasonal average, the aluminum price is expected to stabilize [16]. 2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc price fell on Monday. The LME zinc inventory accumulation slowed down, and the overseas natural gas price increase raised concerns about the cost of European smelters [17]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc price is currently following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute increase. The subsequent trading focus may return to the industrial logic [18]. 2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The lead price fell on Monday. The lead ore and recycled waste inventories increased, and the downstream battery enterprise operating rate decreased slightly [19]. - **Strategy View**: The industrial situation of lead is weak. The better - than - expected US manufacturing PMI has eased the panic to some extent [20]. 2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: On February 2, the nickel price dropped significantly. The nickel ore price remained stable, and the nickel iron price fluctuated upward [21]. - **Strategy View**: The nickel price is expected to be weak in the short - term. The market may return to real - world trading, and the increase in refined nickel production and inventory will put pressure on the price [22]. 2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: On February 2, the tin price fell and hit the daily limit down. The supply increase was limited, and the demand was weak [23]. - **Strategy View**: The tin market supply - demand is marginally loose, and the inventory is rising. The tin price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [23]. 2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The lithium carbonate price dropped significantly. The contract total position reached a new low since late October [24]. - **Strategy View**: The buying sentiment in the commodity market has cooled significantly. Although the fundamentals of lithium carbonate are expected to improve, the market atmosphere has a greater impact. It is recommended to be cautious and observe or try with a light position [24]. 2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose slightly on February 2. The Guinea ore price is expected to decline, and the alumina smelting capacity is in excess [25]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the supply - side policy, Guinea ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [26]. 2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel price dropped on Monday. The downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high, and the inventory turnover slowed down [27]. - **Strategy View**: The cost support of the industrial chain is still strong, and the price has strong support below. The bullish view remains unchanged [28]. 2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The casting aluminum alloy price dropped significantly on February 2. The cost price dropped significantly, and the inventory decreased slightly [30]. - **Strategy View**: Although the demand is average, the price has support in the short - term due to supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply [31]. 3. Black Building Materials 3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The steel price continued to fluctuate at the bottom. The螺纹 steel production remained high, and the demand decreased seasonally. The hot - rolled coil demand was relatively stable, and the inventory continued to decline slightly [33]. - **Strategy View**: The black series is in a bottom - game stage with multiple factors. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and policy adjustments [34]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore price dropped on Monday. The overseas iron ore shipments increased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [35]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas shipments are entering the off - season, and the supply pressure is gradually easing. The price has support below and is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to steel mills' replenishment and iron - making production rhythm [36]. 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The coking coal and coke prices fluctuated on February 2. The coking coal supply is gradually becoming looser, and the downstream inventory replenishment willingness is low [37]. - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, the prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the short - term impact of market sentiment and the high - volatility risk [41]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass price remained stable, and the soda ash price dropped slightly. The glass inventory decreased slightly, and the soda ash inventory increased slightly [42][44]. - **Strategy View**: The glass market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term, and the soda ash market is expected to be weakly stable and fluctuate [43][46]. 3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices dropped slightly on February 2. The manganese silicon supply is loose, and the ferrosilicon supply - demand is basically balanced [47]. - **Strategy View**: The future market trend is mainly affected by the black sector's direction and cost factors. Attention should be paid to the manganese ore situation and "dual - carbon" policy [49]. 3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon price dropped slightly, and the polysilicon price dropped slightly. The industrial silicon supply decreased, and the polysilicon demand decreased [50][52]. - **Strategy View**: The industrial silicon supply - demand is expected to improve in the short - term, and the price is expected to fluctuate. The polysilicon supply is expected to shrink in the first quarter, and the futures price is expected to be under pressure [51][53]. 4. Energy and Chemicals 4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: Multiple commodities dropped significantly, and the rubber market was affected by both long and short factors. The tire enterprise operating rate and the natural rubber inventory had different changes [55][56]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and strictly control risks. The strategy of buying NR and shorting RU2609 can be re - established [58]. 4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude oil price dropped significantly, and the refined oil prices also dropped. The European refined oil inventory had different changes [59]. - **Strategy View**: The current oil price has priced in a high geopolitical premium. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [60]. 4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price dropped, and the MTO profit increased [61]. - **Strategy View**: The current methanol price has priced in almost all geopolitical premiums, and the negative feedback may continue, putting pressure on the upward space [62]. 4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The urea price dropped slightly, and the overall basis was - 17 yuan/ton [63]. - **Strategy View**: The current internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and the fundamentals are expected to be bearish. It is recommended to short on rallies [64]. 4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The pure benzene price dropped, and the styrene price had different trends in spot and futures. The supply and demand sides had different changes [65]. - **Strategy View**: The styrene non - integrated profit has been significantly repaired. It is recommended to gradually take profits [66]. 4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC price dropped, the production was at a high level, and the downstream demand was weak. The export was the only short - term support [67]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak. The short - term price is supported by electricity price expectations and export rush. Attention should be paid to capacity and operating rate changes [68]. 4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol price dropped, the supply load was high, and the demand load decreased. The port inventory continued to accumulate [69]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand situation needs to be improved by increasing production cuts. The valuation is expected to be compressed in the medium - term [70]. 4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA price dropped, the supply was in high - maintenance, and the demand decreased due to the off - season. The inventory increased during the Spring Festival [71]. - **Strategy View**: The PTA processing fee has a high expected component, and there is a risk of correction in the short - term. There is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to buying on dips [73]. 4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene price dropped, the load was high, and the downstream PTA was in maintenance. The inventory was expected to accumulate before the maintenance season [74]. - **Strategy View**: The mid - term pattern is good. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips following the crude oil price [75]. 4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE price dropped, the upstream operating rate increased, and the downstream operating rate decreased slightly. The inventory decreased [76]. - **Strategy View**: The PE valuation has room to decline. The supply support has returned, and the demand is in the off - season [77]. 4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP price dropped, the upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and the downstream operating rate decreased slightly. The inventory decreased [78]. - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction. The supply - surplus pattern is expected to change in the first quarter of next year, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the PP5 - 9 spread [80]. 5. Agricultural Products 5.1 Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog price generally rose, but the short - term price is expected to stabilize [82]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term price is under pressure, and it is recommended to sell on rallies. The long - term price has support, and attention should be paid to the downside support after the decline [83]. 5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price mostly declined, and it is expected to be stable in the short - term [84]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term price may fluctuate weakly, and the long - term price may correct the valuation. It is recommended to short on rallies [85]. 5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein meal futures price dropped, and the domestic soybean inventory decreased. The USDA report data was slightly bearish, but the short - term fundamentals are improving [86][87]. - **Strategy View**: The protein meal price may be bottoming out [88]. 5.4 Oils - **Market Information**: The oil futures price dropped, the Malaysian palm oil production decreased, and the domestic oil inventory decreased slightly. The short - term price was affected by the decline of commodities [89][90]. - **Strategy View**: The long - term oil price may have bottomed out. It is recommended to wait for a correction and then try to buy [90]. 5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The sugar futures price dropped slightly, and the global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus. The Indian sugar production increased, and the domestic sugar import increased [91]. - **Strategy View**: The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest. The domestic sugar price has limited downward space. It is recommended to wait and see [93]. 5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The cotton futures price dropped, the spinning mill operating rate decreased, and the domestic cotton commercial inventory decreased slightly. The US cotton export decreased [94][95]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term cotton price fluctuates widely, and the long - term price has room to rise. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips before the Spring Festival [96].

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in commodity prices is primarily driven by emotional panic rather than a collapse in the fundamental supply and demand dynamics of the commodities themselves [2][6]. Group 1: Causes of the Decline - The core reason for the market crash is the collapse of sentiment in precious metals, which led to a sell-off across various sectors, including non-ferrous metals like copper and aluminum [2][3]. - Two key news events acted as "triggers" for the market panic: the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, raising concerns about the end of the "cheap money era," and the easing of geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which reduced the "geopolitical risk premium" in oil prices [3][4]. - The market was already saturated with speculative positions and high leverage, which exacerbated the sell-off when negative news emerged, leading to forced liquidations and a vicious cycle of price declines [5][6]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - **Non-Ferrous Metals**: Despite the sharp declines, the fundamental support for copper and aluminum remains intact. Issues such as declining ore grades and limited new supply for copper persist, while demand from sectors like home appliances and electric vehicles is expected to rise [8][10]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The oil and chemical sectors experienced significant declines due to the removal of geopolitical risk premiums and concerns over weak global oil demand. However, coal and salt chemicals showed resilience as their costs are more tied to domestic coal prices [11][12]. - **Black Metals**: The black metal sector is facing pressure from both weak seasonal demand and the negative sentiment from precious metals. However, the rate of inventory accumulation is not alarming, providing some buffer against drastic price drops [13]. - **Agricultural Products**: Agricultural commodities are less affected by the recent market turmoil, as their prices are primarily driven by domestic supply and demand factors, making them more resilient to macroeconomic fluctuations [14]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to distinguish between emotional market reactions and the intrinsic value of commodities. The current market turmoil is seen as a temporary emotional response rather than a fundamental shift in value [15][20]. - The recommended strategy is to adopt a wait-and-see approach, avoiding aggressive positions until market volatility decreases and signs of stabilization appear [16][19]. - Preparation for future opportunities is essential, including reassessing the supply-demand dynamics of favored commodities and planning entry strategies [17][18].

本报讯 记者金国建报道 1月31日，"锦州年・最东北 品特产・寻年味"2026年锦州土特产年货大集（"锦 绣农鲜"特色展区）在锦州国际会展中心正式启幕。 14家锦州本土优质农业经营主体集体亮相，带来30余种特色农产品，全方位展现锦州农业产业高质量发 展成果。货架上，荣获"辽宁优品"的百合小菜脆嫩爽口，入选全国名特优新农产品名录的鸡蛋新鲜饱 满、蜂蜜纯正甘甜，拥有多项产品认证的凌海海参品质上乘，还有碱地榛子、杂粮饺子粉等好物琳琅满 目，既有生鲜果蔬、粮油禽蛋，也有深加工食品，集中呈现锦州优质农特产品的独特风采，并同步开启 线上直播，助力节日消费升温，满足市民一站式采购、品鲜寻味的需求。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the trade agreement between the United States and India, which involves reducing tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 18%, easing tensions between the two countries [1][2][3] - The agreement will significantly lower the overall tax burden on many Indian products from 50% to 18%, particularly benefiting textiles and machinery [1][11] - India is expected to purchase over $500 billion worth of American energy, technology, agricultural products, coal, and other goods as part of the agreement [1] Group 2 - The announcement led to a surge in India's benchmark stock index Nifty 50 futures and a nearly 3% increase in the iShares MSCI India ETF listed in the U.S. [7] - The Indian rupee strengthened against the dollar, rising by 1% in offshore markets following the news [7] - High tariffs had previously impacted approximately 55% of India's exports to the U.S., affecting its ambition to become a manufacturing powerhouse [11]

2017-02- 09 15 Car 2019 the state t and the STORES re least 200 are in the state of the n a long to the t 1 Cases of 0 300 STERNET the state - Property D KING W 特朗普表示，双方达成了一项美印贸易协议，美国对印度的"对等关税"将从25%降至18%。印度也将相应地降低对美国的关税和非关税壁垒，直至降至零。 特朗普还称，莫迪承诺将大幅增加对美国产品的采购，包括价值超过5000亿美元的美国能源、技术、农产品、煤炭以及其他许多产品。 特朗普称，莫迪同意印度停止购买俄罗斯石油并从美国购买更多石油，印度还可能从委内瑞拉购买石油。 当地时间2月2日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文称，他于当日上午与印度总理莫迪进行了电话交谈。 ...