Report Overview - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report (Electrolytic Copper) - Report Date: August 12, 2025 - Research Institute: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute - Author: Wang Wenhu 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic anti-involution policies lead to inflation rebound expectations, and the accumulation of total domestic and foreign electrolytic copper inventories slows down. However, the rebound of US consumer inflation may suppress the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, limiting the upside space for Shanghai copper prices. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to support and resistance levels for Shanghai copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper [5]. - Due to the expectation of domestic economic stimulus policies, global copper concentrate production disruptions, and tight supply-demand expectations, combined with the impact of the traditional consumption off-season and the uncertainty of the US interest rate cut rhythm, investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the basis and calendar spreads of Shanghai copper [8]. - Given that Trump's administration imposed a 50% tariff on copper products (excluding electrolytic copper), and with the continuous tight supply-demand expectations of global copper concentrates and the increasing expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates after September, investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the LME copper (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomy - US import tariffs push up commodity prices, causing the annual rates of consumer inflation CPI and PCE in June to rise. However, due to the possible significant downward revision or far lower-than-expected increase in non-farm payrolls from May to July, the US economy shows "stagflation" characteristics, increasing the expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates in September, October, and December [3]. Upstream - Newmont's Canadian Red Chris copper mine suspended operations due to a collapse in the underground passage of a non-productive project. Anglo Asian Mining's Demirli copper mine started trial production. Zijin Mining's Kamoa-Kakula copper mine's west side resumed production in early June, but the east side's drainage may last until September. Tongling Nonferrous' Mirador copper mine phase II in Ecuador with a 150,000-ton capacity may be put into production in the second half of 2025, potentially increasing the domestic production (import) of copper concentrates in August [3]. - The second rotary anode furnace of the pyrometallurgical system in the recycling base of recycled copper resources of Dianzhong Nonferrous successfully produced anode copper in early July. The weekly processing fees for crude copper in northern (southern) China remained flat (increased) compared to the previous week. The capacity of domestic smelters for rough refining maintenance in August may decrease compared to the previous month, potentially increasing the domestic production (import) of crude copper in August [3]. - Liangshan Copper's 125,000-ton cathode copper refining project may start feeding production by the end of the year. Northern Copper's Houma Beitong with an annual production of 200,000 tons of cathode copper ignited its side-blowing and top-blowing smelting systems on June 10, potentially reducing the domestic production of electrolytic copper in August [3]. Supply and Inventory - Indonesia's PT Gresik copper smelter (annual production of 300,000 tons) needed maintenance for 2 - 4 weeks in early August due to oxygen supply equipment failure. India's Adani copper smelter with a 500,000-ton capacity resumed feeding on June 16 after multiple delays but still faced the risk of cancellation of long-term supply contracts for South American copper concentrates. African agricultural exports delayed ship bookings until late August, leading to inventory accumulation of electrolytic copper at Durban and Dar es Salaam ports, potentially reducing the domestic import of electrolytic copper in August [4]. - The import window closure may limit the domestic import of electrolytic copper, causing the inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded areas to decrease compared to the previous week. China's social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased compared to the previous week, while the inventory of electrolytic copper at the London Metal Exchange increased compared to the previous week [17]. - The inventory of copper concentrates at Chinese ports increased compared to the previous week [20]. Downstream - The daily processing fees for refined copper rods for East China's power and enameled wire increased compared to the previous week, causing the capacity utilization rate of China's refined copper rods (recycled copper rods) to decline (decline) compared to the previous week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled copper rod enterprises decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week [5]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper wire and cable increased compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of China's copper wire and cable enterprises decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week [5]. - The order volume (capacity utilization rate) of China's copper enameled wire decreased (increased) compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of China's enameled wire enterprises decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week [5]. - The capacity utilization rate (production volume) of China's copper strip increased (increased) compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of China's copper strip enterprises decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week [5]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper tubes increased compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of China's copper tube enterprises increased (decreased) compared to the previous week [5]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's brass rods increased compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of China's brass rod enterprises decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week [5]. - The easing of mutual tariffs between China and the US and the traditional consumption off-season are intertwined, potentially causing the capacity utilization rate (production volume, import volume, export volume) of domestic copper product enterprises to decline (increase, decrease, decrease) in August [5]. Market Structure - The basis of Shanghai copper is positive, and the calendar spreads are negative [6]. - The basis of Shanghai copper is negative and within a reasonable range, and the calendar spreads are negative and within a reasonable range. The reason is the expectation of domestic economic stimulus policies, global copper concentrate production disruptions, and tight supply-demand expectations, combined with the impact of the traditional consumption off-season and the uncertainty of the US interest rate cut rhythm [8]. - The spreads of LME copper (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts are negative and within a reasonable range. The ratio of Shanghai copper to LME copper is close to the 75th percentile of the past five years, which is due to Trump's administration's announcement of a 50% tariff on copper products (excluding electrolytic copper), combined with the continuous tight supply-demand expectations of global copper concentrates and the increasing expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates after September [9]. - The spreads between COMEX copper's near and far contracts are basically negative and within a reasonable range. The spread between LME copper and Shanghai copper is positive and basically within a reasonable range. The spread between COMEX copper and Shanghai copper is positive and within a reasonable range. The spread between COMEX copper and LME copper is negative and within a reasonable range, which is due to Trump's administration's copper tariff policy inducing potential cross-market arbitrage transactions [11]. - The closing prices of Shanghai copper's near and far months show a Back structure, and the closing prices of COMEX copper's near and far contracts show a Contango structure [13]. Investment Strategy - It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 77,000 - 78,000 and the resistance level around 80,000 - 81,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9,300 - 9,500 and the resistance level around 10,000 - 10,200 for LME copper, and the support level around 4.0 - 4.2 and the resistance level around 4.6 - 5.0 for COMEX copper [5]. - Investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the basis and calendar spreads of Shanghai copper [8]. - Investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the LME copper (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads [9].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-12 买卖双方拉锯 铜价仍陷震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-08-11，沪铜主力合约开于 78500元/吨，收于 79020元/吨，较前一交易日收盘0.68%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 78750元/吨，收于 78810 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下跌0.27%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日国内电解铜现货市场呈现结构性分化。SMM1#电解铜报价79,020-79,280元/吨，当月合约升水 70-230元/吨，均价150元/吨，较前日上涨30元。沪铜主力早盘自78,800元/吨震荡上行至79,100元/吨，Contango结构 维持在C40-C20元/吨。市场呈现三大特征：一是品牌价差显著扩大，祥光等主流平水铜升水130-150元/吨成交有限， 而优质品牌金川、贵溪升水230-300元/吨维持高位；二是区域分化延续，常州地区升水40-60元/吨；三是供需矛盾 突出，贸易商惜售与下游压价并存。尽管采购情绪指数降至3.16，但流通性较好的货源仍保持挺价，预计短期内现 货升水下行空间有限。 重要资讯汇总： 美联储人事变动方面，特朗普团队扩大美联储主席 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - **Logic**: Macroeconomic factors include China's export growth in July exceeding expectations, the impact of US tariff policies yet to be seen, and market expectations of a Fed rate cut within the year. Fundamentally, high - end copper supply is scarce, imported low - price supplies are limited, and demand is suppressed by high prices. As of August 7, copper inventory rose to 132,000 tons. The implementation of US copper tariffs and high inventory are pressuring prices [4]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the price to stabilize. The upper reference pressure level for the SHFE Copper 2509 contract is 80,000 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 76,000 yuan/ton [4]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Logic**: Macroeconomic factors are similar to copper. Fundamentally, production is slightly increasing, costs are stable, and profits are high. However, demand is weak due to the off - season, and social inventory has exceeded 550,000 tons. Aluminum prices may remain high and volatile, and attention should be paid to the "Golden September and Silver October" demand [6]. - **Strategy**: The upper reference pressure level for the SHFE Aluminum 2509 contract is 21,000 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 20,200 yuan/ton [6]. Alumina - **Logic**: Macroeconomic factors are the same as above. Fundamentally, the weekly operating rate rose to 82.57% as of August 7, and the market is in an oversupply situation with high downstream inventory. Alumina may oscillate within a range [8]. - **Strategy**: The upper reference pressure level for the Alumina 2509 contract is 3,600 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 3,000 yuan/ton [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 01. Market Review - **Weekly Price Changes**: Provided the 8.4 - 8.8 weekly cumulative price change statistics for various metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc [16]. - **Weekly News**: Included events like Codelco's suspension of ore processing due to a tunnel collapse, changes in Chile's copper exports, US copper tariffs, Century Aluminum's plan to restart production, and changes in US aluminum imports [17]. 02. Macroeconomic Analysis - **Domestic Data**: In July, China's CPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month and was flat year - on - year, while the core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year. PPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 3.6% year - on - year. Exports in July exceeded expectations, but there is a possibility of a decline in the future [19][21]. - **Macroeconomic Forecast**: Provided domestic and foreign economic data forecasts from August 11 - 15, including China's money supply, real estate investment, and US CPI, PPI, etc. [24]. 03. Copper Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The processing fee TC rebounded from a low level [28]. - **Futures Market**: The net long position in COMEX copper dropped significantly [31]. - **Overseas Market**: The price difference between US copper and LME copper returned to normal [35]. - **Inventory**: As of August 7, the SMM national mainstream area copper inventory was 132,000 tons, with a significant weekly increase. The开工 rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises decreased to 68.86% from August 1 - 7, and is expected to increase to 70.79% from August 8 - 14 [41]. 04. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis - **Domestic Market**: The spot discount widened [45]. - **Foreign Market**: The US dollar index weakened [47]. - **Inventory**: Various inventory data for electrolytic aluminum, including social inventory, aluminum rod inventory, etc., were provided [49]. - **Downstream Operations**: As of July 31, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing industries rose to 58.7%. Different sectors had different performance, and the operating rate is expected to rise slightly to 59% this week [51]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: As of August 7, the SMM ADC12 price was 20,250 yuan/ton. Cost pressure increased, demand was weak, and inventory growth slowed down [54]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit data of electrolytic aluminum were presented [58]. 05. Alumina Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The spot price remained stable [62]. - **Futures Market**: The inventory of futures was at a low level [63]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply changes were limited, with some regional imbalances. Demand increased slightly due to the increase in electrolytic aluminum operating capacity [68]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of August 8, the domestic alumina industry cost was 2,977.79 yuan/ton, and the average profit was 292.69 yuan/ton [69].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a general rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3647.55 points, up 0.34%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 11291.43 points, up 1.46% [1] - The total trading volume reached 751.3 billion yuan for Shanghai and 1075.6 billion yuan for Shenzhen, with both indices hitting new highs for the year [1] - Margin financing in the A-share market has surpassed 2 trillion yuan for the first time in ten years, indicating increased market activity [1] Margin Financing and Market Dynamics - The current margin financing balance represents about 2.3% of the A-share market's total circulation value, which has increased to approximately 90 trillion yuan, suggesting room for growth [1] - The distribution of financing funds is more diversified compared to 2015, showing a preference for emerging industries and growth styles [1][2] Macroeconomic Context - Policies implemented since September 2022 have stabilized market expectations and improved investor risk appetite [2] - The current A-share market capitalization to M2 ratio is around 32%, indicating potential for further inflow of resident funds [2] Sector Performance - The lithium sector saw a significant surge due to supply concerns following the suspension of operations at a key lithium mine [6] - The demand for new energy vehicles is expected to increase, supporting prices in the lithium market [6] Copper Market Insights - Copper prices are maintaining a high level, with LME copper priced at approximately 9750 USD per ton [7] - Supply constraints are exacerbated by incidents in Chile and insufficient capital expenditure from global mining companies [7] - The demand for copper is expected to grow, particularly driven by AI-related electricity needs in the U.S. [7] Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to consider ETFs related to the brokerage sector and lithium mining, as well as copper-related investments due to favorable market conditions [2][8]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a bullish trend due to rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with supply and demand pressures remaining manageable [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Recent disturbances in overseas supply have slightly increased compared to previous periods, but some situations have calmed down [1] - Codelco, the Chilean state copper company, has received authorization to resume partial operations at the El Teniente copper mine [1] - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees have recently rebounded from low levels, but the extent of the rebound is limited, indicating ongoing concerns about supply tightness [1] Inventory and Market Activity - As of August 11, domestic electrolytic copper inventory stands at 132,200 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from August 7 [1] - The decline in inventory is primarily attributed to reduced arrivals in the Shanghai market and increased outflows from warehouses due to downstream enterprises purchasing at lower prices [1] Price Outlook - New Lake Futures indicates that the recent U.S. non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, significantly restoring market expectations for interest rate cuts, which has positively impacted copper prices [1] - The copper supply-demand situation remains relatively healthy, with ongoing tightness in copper mine supply and frequent disturbances at mining sites [1] - Both overseas and domestic smelters are expected to initiate production cuts, while copper demand remains resilient due to support from the power grid and new energy sectors [1] - It is suggested to consider establishing long positions on copper at lower price levels [1]

供应方面，中辉期货指出，近日铜精矿干扰不断，全球最大铜企Codelco因ElTeniente矿隧道坍塌全面停 产，预计月减产约3万吨（占产量四分之一），国内7月铜冶炼开工率为88.19%，环比上升2.43%，7月 SMM中国电解铜产量环比大增3.94万吨，环比增3.47%，同比上升14.21%。 需求端，华联期货分析称，美国关税政策冲击铜产品出口订单，加工材需求受影响；但新能源汽车、光 伏装机及海外基建项目支撑电力用铜需求。"金九银十"临近，加上国内经济复苏以及政策支持的预期， 后期需求预计继续向好。 展望后市，中金财富期货表示，美国服务业PMI疲软，但物价支付指数飙升，市场担忧"滞胀"风险，部 分资金转向避险资产，压制铜价。国内电解铜产量维持高位，但进口亏损扩大，洋山铜溢价下滑，进口 补充有限，现货升水持续收窄，反映下游采购意愿减弱。沪铜价格在回吐前期关税溢价后，短期进入休 整，窄幅震荡。 库存方面，据广州期货介绍，8月8日，SHFE仓单库存21272吨，增1127吨；SHFE铜周库存81933吨，较 前一周五增9390吨；LME仓单库存155850吨，减150吨。 8月11日，国内期市有色金属板块涨幅居前 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The copper market may continue to oscillate within a range and may show a short - term upward trend. Supply - side factors such as mine disturbances and improved smelting efficiency offset each other, but the decline in anode copper开工率 limits supply flexibility. On the demand side, the weakness in construction and exports offsets the growth in the new energy sector, and the terminal de - stocking power is insufficient. The increase in LME inventory strengthens the market's expectation of looser supply - demand, and the macro - sentiment is suppressed by the Fed's policy and geopolitical tariff issues [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On August 8, the price of the SHFE copper main contract closed at 78,440 yuan/ton. The spot premium - discount structure strengthened overall. The discount of premium copper narrowed to 160 yuan/ton, and that of flat - water copper narrowed to 95 yuan/ton, indicating short - term tight supply in the spot market. The LME (0 - 3) discount slightly widened to - 65.63 dollars/ton, highlighting the divergence in spot premiums and discounts between the domestic and international markets [1] - **Position and Trading Volume**: On August 7, the LME copper position decreased by 2,005 lots to 263,245 lots, reflecting cautious market sentiment. The SHFE contract position remained stable, and the trading volume slightly shrank, indicating a decline in short - term capital participation [1] b. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: There are many short - term disturbances at the mine end. Although Chifeng Gold discovered new copper resources in Laos, actual capacity release will take a long time. Chile's copper export value in July decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, and the supply - side growth rate may slow down. Baiyin Nonferrous completed the intelligent transformation of the copper concentrate warehouse, improving the ore unloading efficiency by 40%. However, the anode copper enterprise开工率 in August decreased by 3.96% month - on - month, and there is still pressure on refined copper supply in the short term [2] - **Demand Side**: Terminal demand is significantly differentiated. The new energy sector performs strongly, with the cumulative power generation of wind power increasing by 10.6% year - on - year and the output of new energy vehicles increasing by 26.4% year - on - year. However, the copper consumption in the construction/real estate sector decreased year - on - year, and the demand for copper in the photovoltaic sector declined after the rush - installation, dragging down copper consumption. The high tariff imposed by the US on Mexican copper tubes led to blocked exports, and the domestic copper terminal PMI further contracted (expected to drop to 47.49% in August), resulting in insufficient overall demand - side support [2] - **Inventory Side**: On August 8, the LME inventory increased by 1,127 tons to 21,272 tons compared with the previous day, showing a continuous three - day inventory accumulation trend and indicating obvious pressure on visible inventory. The SHFE inventory slightly decreased by 0.1% to 155,850 tons but remained at a high level this year, indicating weak domestic consumption momentum. The COMEX inventory also increased moderately, and the marginal increase in global inventory put pressure on copper prices [2] c. Market Summary - The copper market may continue the oscillating trend within a range and may show a short - term upward trend. The supply - side factors of mine disturbances and improved smelting efficiency offset each other, but the decline in anode copper开工率 limits supply flexibility. The weakness in construction and exports on the demand side offsets the growth in the new energy sector, and the terminal de - stocking power is insufficient. The increase in LME inventory strengthens the market's expectation of looser supply - demand, and the macro - sentiment is suppressed by the Fed's policy and geopolitical tariff issues [3] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - On August 8, 2025, the SMM 1 copper price was 78,640 yuan/ton, a 0.05% increase from the previous day; the SHFE price was 78,440 yuan/ton, also a 0.05% increase. The LME price was 9,768 dollars/ton, a 1.01% increase. The LME inventory increased by 5.59% to 21,272 tons, the SHFE inventory decreased by 0.1% to 155,850 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 0.32% to 264,140 short tons [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On August 7, Chifeng Gold announced a new discovery in its SND gold - copper mine project in Laos, with about 131.5 million tons of ore and a gold - equivalent metal volume of about 106.9 tons [6] - In July, Chile's copper export value was 3.99 billion dollars, a 0.4% decrease from the previous year [6] - Baiyin Nonferrous started the intelligent transformation project of the 19 line concentrate warehouse, which will increase the ore storage capacity from 30,000 tons to 47,000 tons and improve the unloading efficiency by 40% [7] - SMM expects that the overall anode copper enterprise开工率 in China in August will decrease by 3.96 percentage points to 57.15% [7] - The high tariff imposed by the US on Mexican copper tubes has led to blocked exports, and the US copper tube processing fee has significantly increased. The follow - up situation of whether the US will relax the tariff on Mexican copper materials needs to be concerned [7] 4. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including China PMI, US employment situation, dollar index and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fee, CFTC copper position, LME copper net long position analysis, Shanghai copper warehouse receipt volume, LME copper inventory change, COMEX copper inventory change, and SMM social inventory [8][12][13][15][18][20][24][26][29]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily review of copper on August 11, 2025, focusing on the copper market, including price, inventory, and industry trends [1] Group 2: Market Data Shanghai Copper Futures - On August 8, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 78,490, up 30 from the previous day; the trading volume was 42,906 lots, up 196; the open interest was 156,892 lots, down 709; the inventory was 21,272 tons, up 1,127 [2] - The basis of Shanghai copper was 40, unchanged from the previous day; the spot premium or discount in Guangzhou was -40, up 5; in North China was -120, unchanged; in East China was -5, up 10 [2] - The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of Shanghai copper was -30, down 20; between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was 20, up 30; between the second - continuous and the first - continuous contract was 20, down 10 [2] London Copper - The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on August 8, 2025, was 9,768, up 97.5 from the previous day [2] - The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, down 155,850 from the previous day [2] - The spread of the LME copper futures 0 - 3 months contract was -69.55, down 3.92; the 3 - 15 months contract was -141.49, down 1.49 [2] COMEX Copper - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures on August 8, 2025, was 4.485, up 0.07 from the previous day [2] - The total inventory was 264,140, up 1,036 from the previous day [2] Group 3: Industry News - Chile's Codelco received approval from the labor department to resume operations in the unaffected areas of its El Teniente copper mine [2] - The daily processing fee of refined copper rods for power and enameled wire in East China increased compared to last week, leading to a decline in the capacity utilization rate of China's refined copper rods (recycled copper rods) [2] - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper wire and cable increased, while the raw material and finished - product inventories decreased [2] - The order volume and capacity utilization rate of China's copper enameled wire decreased and increased respectively, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days decreased [2] - The capacity utilization rate and production of China's copper strip increased, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days decreased [2] - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper tubes increased, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days increased and decreased respectively [2] - The capacity utilization rate of China's brass rods increased, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days decreased [2] - Due to the easing of Sino - US tariffs and the traditional off - season, the capacity utilization rate, production, import volume, and export volume of domestic copper products enterprises in August may decline [2] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Due to the weakening US job market, rising expectations of Fed rate cuts, the weekly operation capacity of the domestic copper processing industry, and the weekly decline in domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, the price of Shanghai copper may rebound [2] - Investors are advised to lightly test long positions on the main contract on dips, with support and resistance levels at 77,000 - 78,000 and 80,000 - 81,000 for Shanghai copper, 9,300 - 9,500 and 10,000 - 10,200 for London copper, and 4.0 - 4.2 and 4.6 - 5.0 for US copper [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may fluctuate strongly in the short - term, with the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and anti - involution policy expectations providing support, while the expected increase in supply after the implementation of US copper tariffs poses an upper - bound pressure [1]. - Aluminum prices may fluctuate, supported by the relatively low domestic aluminum ingot inventory and the resilience of external demand, but pressured by weak downstream consumption and volatile trade situations [3]. - Lead prices are expected to show a weak and volatile trend due to the narrowing supply and high downstream inventory levels [4]. - Zinc prices are difficult to fall in the short - term despite the long - term oversupply situation, supported by the low LME warehouse receipts [6]. - Tin prices are expected to decline as the supply is expected to recover significantly in the fourth quarter while the demand remains weak [7]. - Nickel prices may have a callback pressure as the short - term improvement in downstream demand is limited, despite a small rebound [9]. - Carbonate lithium prices are affected by the news of mine shutdowns, with frequent emotional fluctuations in the market. Traders are advised to be cautious [11]. - Alumina is expected to maintain an oversupply pattern, and it is recommended to short at high prices [14]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to show a strong and volatile trend due to the tight market supply [16]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices have limited upward space due to the off - season of downstream demand and the large basis between futures and spot prices, despite cost support [18]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - Last week, LME copper rose 1.4% to $9768/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78940 yuan/ton. The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 28,000 tons, and the Shanghai bonded - area inventory increased by 500 tons. The spot import was in a loss, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. The domestic refined - copper rod and cable operating rates rebounded slightly. In the short - term, copper prices may fluctuate strongly, with the operating range of SHFE copper at 78000 - 80000 yuan/ton and LME copper at $9600 - 10000/ton [1]. Aluminum - Last week, SHFE aluminum rose 0.85%, and LME aluminum rose 1.69% to $2615/ton. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 20,000 tons, and the bonded - area inventory increased by 4000 tons. The aluminum rod social inventory decreased by 4000 tons. The downstream buying interest improved. In the short - term, aluminum prices may fluctuate, with the operating range of SHFE aluminum at 20400 - 20900 yuan/ton and LME aluminum at $2550 - 2660/ton [3]. Lead - On Friday, SHFE lead index fell 0.22% to 16846 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell $6.5 to $1998.5/ton. The supply has slightly narrowed, and the downstream consumption pressure is high. Lead prices are expected to show a weak and volatile trend [4]. Zinc - On Friday, SHFE zinc index fell 0.31% to 22515 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose $3.5 to $2816.5/ton. The domestic zinc ingot is in an oversupply situation, but the low LME warehouse receipts support the price in the short - term [6]. Tin - Last week, tin prices fluctuated upward. Supply is expected to recover significantly in the fourth quarter, while demand is in the off - season. Tin prices are expected to decline [7]. Nickel - On Friday, nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. The short - term macro - environment is positive, but the downstream demand improvement is limited, and nickel prices have a callback pressure. The operating range of SHFE nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel is $14500 - 16500/ton [9]. Carbonate Lithium - On Friday, the MMLC carbonate lithium spot index rose 2.95% from the previous trading day and 1.45% for the week. The news of mine shutdowns affects the market sentiment, and traders are advised to be cautious [11]. Alumina - On August 8, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.36% to 3182 yuan/ton. The supply - side contraction policy needs further observation, and it is recommended to short at high prices. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [14]. Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12985 yuan/ton. The market supply is tight, and the price is expected to show a strong and volatile trend [16]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Last week, the cast aluminum alloy futures price rose 0.95% to 20110 yuan/ton. The downstream is in the off - season, and the price upward space is limited [18].

南华铜周报 2025年8月8日 铜：震荡偏强，底部抬升 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 点评 铜：震荡偏强，底部抬升 【盘面回顾】沪铜主力期货合约在周中小幅冲高后回落，报收在7.84万元每吨附近，上海有色现货升水120元 每吨。沪铜库存小幅回升至8.2万元；LME库存回升至15.5万吨；COMEX库存继续上涨至26.4万吨，上涨速 度降低。进阶数据方面，铜现货进口亏损缩窄；铜铝比缩稳定在3.79；精废价差小幅回落至784元每吨，小幅 偏低。 【产业表现】智利国家铜业公司（Codelco）最大铜矿El Teniente因7月31日隧道坍塌事故导致6名矿工遇难， 地下作业全面暂停。随着库存矿石耗尽，包括Caletones冶炼厂在内的地面设施被迫进入维护状态，5000名工 人转至地面检查设备。此次事故预计每月减少3万吨铜产量，相当于Codelco四分之一的产能，全球电线、电 子和建筑用铜供应链将受波及。 【核心逻辑】铜价在周中小幅冲高后回落，基本符合预期。智利El Teniente铜矿的矿难事故对于铜价的影响 自事故发生起到现在存在波折 ...