外谨慎，仅根据实际生产需求补充库存。消费淡季，去库存速度缓慢，旧作基本面变化较小，短期价格震 数据来源第三方(wind、同花顺、棉花信息网、棉花协会网)，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 荡。近期全疆大部处于现蕾开花期的棉花存在不同程度高温热害风险，持续关注主产区新季棉花生长情况 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 对盘面影响。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-06-23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 ...

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Coal and Coking Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: June 23, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Research Institute, Black Research Team 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand contradiction of coking coal has eased, and with the support of geopolitical conflicts on energy products, the futures market may continue to rise in the short term. However, downstream enterprises generally lack confidence in future demand, and this rebound has not boosted the sentiment in the spot market. The inventory of upstream coking coal mines is continuously accumulating, and the pressure on spot sales remains high. The probability of an immediate price increase after the fourth round of price cuts is low. Unilateral operations are advised to wait and see, and the industry can focus on hedging opportunities at low basis levels [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - **Price Range Forecast (Monthly)**: The forecast price range for coking coal is 700 - 850, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 38.07% and a historical percentile of 75.79%. The forecast price range for coke is 1320 - 1450, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 26.36% and a historical percentile of 53.39% [2]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: For those looking to lock in selling prices due to concerns about price drops when steel mills propose price cuts for coke or when coking coal spot inventory is high, it is recommended to short the J2509 coke contract or the JM2509 coking coal contract. The suggested hedging ratios and entry intervals are provided [2]. 3.2 Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report | Commodity | Unit | June 23, 2025 | June 20, 2025 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | Tons | 18,221 | 18,221 | 0 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | Tons | 75,537 | 77,312 | - 1,775 | | Iron Ore | Lots | 3,000 | 3,000 | 0 | | Coking Coal | Lots | 0 | 100 | - 100 | | Coke | Lots | 90 | 90 | 0 | | Ferrosilicon | Sheets | 12,535 | 13,832 | - 1,297 | | Silicomanganese | Sheets | 94,951 | 95,545 | - 594 | [3] 3.3 Market Analysis - **Positive Factors**: High molten iron production, stable steel mill profitability, and the absence of obvious off - season characteristics in the steel market [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Unstable operations of mines and coal washing plants during the safety production month, rising pithead prices during the peak demand season for thermal coal, intensified energy price fluctuations due to the tense situation in the Middle East, low probability of an immediate price increase after the fourth round of price cuts, stable coal production and supply throughout the year, and a decline in coal and coking demand following the inflection point of molten iron production [6][7] 3.4 Price Data - **Coal and Coking Futures Prices**: Data on coking coal and coke futures prices, including warehouse receipt costs, basis, spreads between different contract months, and relevant ratios such as coking profit, ore - coke ratio, etc., are provided, along with their daily and weekly changes [7]. - **Coal and Coking Spot Prices**: Data on various coal and coke spot prices, including those of domestic and imported coal, different grades of coke, and relevant profit data such as coking profit, import profit, and export profit, are provided, along with their daily and weekly changes [8][9]

2025年6月23日焦煤主力合约2509持仓数据一览 | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 增减 | 会员 | 持买单 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | J | 中信期货 | 154,737 | -26,175 | 中信期货 | 35,634 | 1,176 | 国泰君安 | 31,663 | -12,389 | | 2 | 国泰君安 | 147,168 | -21,022 | 国泰君安 | 29,309 | 1,061 | 中信期货 | 30,007 | ela | | 3 | 东证期货 | 88,013 | -12,394 | 银河期货 | 26,097 | -272 | 银河期货 | 27,407 | 2,288 | | ব | 走闻期货 | 69,835 | -12,837 | 东证期货 | 25,664 | 857 | 东证期货 | 22,679 | -108 | | 5 | 华泰期货 | 68,208 | 2,691 | 华泰期货 | 24,135 ...

2025 年 6 月 22 日 可转债策略半年度回顾以及展望 ---2025 年可转债策略半年度行情展望 瞿新荣 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018524 quxinrong027631@gtjas.com 刘宇佩（联系人）从业资格号：F03126011 liuyupei027932@gtjas.com 报告导读： 目录 2025 年上半年可转债市场呈现 "BETA 稳健性凸显、优质标的稀缺性加剧、投资者结构分层、策略分化升级" 特征，为后续 布局锚定方向。 展望阶段需聚焦四大主线： 一是延续 "债性为盾、股性为矛" 的 BETA 逻辑，攻守平衡捕捉市场弹性与抗跌性； 二是锚定 "正股优、条款优、债底优" 稀缺标的，深挖供需错配下的 ALPHA 收益； 三是顺应结构变迁，推动套利、多头、中性策略向 "复合工具化" 迭代，量化与主观互补适配周期； 四是通过组合分散、动态调仓、衍生品对冲，管控信用、估值、流动性风险。在波动分化中锚定稀缺价值，实现收益风 险最优平衡。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 二 〇 二 三 年 度 | 1. 2025 | ...

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至6月20日收盘主力合约20号胶2508,涨跌-1.76%,成交量9.67万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈现净 空，差额头寸为2542手。 | | | | | 2025年6月20日20号胶全合约持仓数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 增减 | 会员 | 持买車 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 壇減 | | 1 | 东证期货 | 63.625 | 25,493 | 国泰君安 | 11,707 | 102 | 国泰君安 | 13,652 | 212 | | 2 | を泰期货 | 38,812 | 16,139 | 中信期货 | 8,742 | -152 | 中信期货 | 10,583 | -36 | | 3 | 中信期货 | 33,886 | 16,601 | を泰期货 | 4,959 | -117 | 东证期货 | 6,195 | 101 | | 4 | 中泰期货 | 25,576 | 10,152 | 浙商期货 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report The medium- to long-term trend of precious metals is expected to be bullish. In the short term, with the need to wait for interest rate cuts, no escalation of geopolitical risks, and trade tariff negotiations not entering a sensitive period, the overall market is expected to remain in a high-level oscillation. Short-term corrections are regarded as medium- to long-term buying opportunities [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions - On Thursday, the precious metals market showed gold oscillation and silver adjustment. The COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3387.4 per ounce, down 0.61%; the US silver 2507 contract closed at $36.36 per ounce, down 1.5%. The SHFE gold 2508 main contract closed at 781.24 yuan per gram, down 0.49%; the SHFE silver 2508 contract closed at 8819 yuan per kilogram, down 1.91% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 89.7%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is 10.3%. For September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 31.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut is 61.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut is 6.7%. In October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 15.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut is 46.3%, the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut is 34.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 75-basis-point cut is 3.4% [3]. - In the long term, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained at 947.37 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 14763 tons. The SHFE silver inventory increased by 14 tons to 1243 tons daily, and the SGX silver inventory increased by 59.6 tons to 1378.9 tons in the week ending June 13 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - The Bank of England's interest rate meeting on Thursday kept the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% unchanged, but the divergence among voting members increased [4]. 3.4 Precious Metals Price and Inventory Data - **Price Data**: The SHFE gold main contract closed at 781.24 yuan per gram, down 4.18 yuan or 0.53%; the SGX gold TD closed at 777.44 yuan per gram, down 4.2 yuan or 0.54%; the CME gold main contract closed at $3387.4 per ounce, up $1 or 0.03%. The SHFE silver main contract closed at 8819 yuan per kilogram, down 226 yuan or 2.5%; the SGX silver TD closed at 8777 yuan per kilogram, down 212 yuan or 2.36%; the CME silver main contract closed at $36.76 per ounce, down $0.42 or 1.13% [4][5]. - **Inventory and Position Data**: The SHFE gold inventory was 18168 kilograms, unchanged; the CME gold inventory was 1175.2202 tons, down 0.009 tons; the SHFE gold position was 161031 lots, down 1390 lots or 0.86%; the SPDR gold position was 947.37 tons, up 1.43 tons or 0.15%. The SHFE silver inventory was 1242.994 tons, up 13.962 tons or 1.14%; the CME silver inventory was 15419.0964 tons, down 26.3768 tons or 0.17%; the SGX silver inventory was 1378.875 tons, up 59.55 tons or 4.51%; the SHFE silver position was 387527 lots, down 58454 lots or 13.11%; the SLV silver position was 14763.000528 tons, up 87.6368 tons or 0.6% [13]. 3.5 Other Market Data - The US dollar index was 98.7857, down 0.066 or 0.07%; the US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.19, down 0.002 or 0.03%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 42171.66 points, down 44.14 points or 0.1%; WTI crude oil spot was $75.6 per barrel, up $0.46 or 0.61%; LmeS copper 03 was $9619.5 per ton, down $31 or 0.32%; the 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.38%, down 0.01% or 0.23%; the 10-year US real interest rate was 2.07%, down 0.01% or 0.48%; the 10 - 2-year US Treasury yield spread was 0.44%, down 0.01% or 2.22% [17].

南华期货硅产业链企业风险管理日报 2025年6月19日 夏莹莹（投资咨询证书：Z0016569 ） 余维函 （期货从业证号：F03144703） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 工业硅&多晶硅期货价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 日涨跌 | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | 日涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅主力合约 | 震荡区间7200-7700 | 28.0% | 0.09% | 84.4% | 0.4% | | 多晶硅主力合约 | 强压力位35000 | 24.45% | -0.27% | 57.01% | -0.5% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 工业硅&多晶硅风险管理策略建议 | 行为 导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存 | 产品库存偏高，有存 | 为了防止存货减值，根据企业库存情况，做空期货来 锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | SI2509/P ...

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至6月19日收盘主力合约苯乙烯2508,涨跌+2.00%,成交量22.15万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈现净 空，差额头寸为6491手。 苯乙烯期货全合约总计成交77.09万手，比上一日减少16.35万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓36.38万手，比上一日增加3520手。全 合约前20席位空头持仓37.86万手，比上一日减少1.12万手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为国泰君安，总持仓109020、中信期货，总持仓32608、华泰期货，总持仓29813；空头前三席 位为国泰君安，总持仓117237、东证期货，总持仓23212、永安期货，总持仓22269； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：中信期货、持仓16223、增仓4995，国泰君安、持仓48175、增仓1628，中泰期 货、持仓3981、增仓1601；多头减仓前三名分别是：中信建投、持仓5509、减仓-1025，乾坤期货、持仓4019、减仓-915，银河期 货、持仓5866、减仓-578； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：国泰君安、持仓46529、增仓8078，东证期货、持仓6688、增仓964，永安期货 ...

南华商品指数：所有版块均上涨，能化板块领涨 王怡琳 2025-06-19 08:40:23 摘要：依照相邻交易日的收盘价计算，今日南华综合指数上涨1.47%。板块指数中，所有板块均有所上涨，其中涨 幅最大的板块是南华能化指数，涨幅为2.48%；涨幅最小的板块是南华黑色指数，涨幅为0.1%。 主题指数中，所有 主题指数均有所上涨，其中涨幅最大的主题指数是能源指数，涨幅为3.96%；涨幅最小的主题指数是黑色原材料指 数，涨幅为0.01%。 商品期货单品种指数中，涨幅最大的单品种指数是原油，上涨5.3%，跌幅最大的商品期货单品 种指数是线材，跌幅为-0.87%。 数据来源：南华期货 免责声明 aranakabase: "Zagangan", "Alaman", "Alax Teleplay", "Anakata", " "Taller", "Alland", "Allen", "Allen", "Allen", "All Program", "All Program", "All Program Program Program > 南华期货 | 股票代码 603093 南华商品指数日报 2025年6月18日 投资咨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - The report suggests a light - position trial for long positions in treasury bond futures. The market initially weakened due to the disappointment of the "small essay" and the announcement of innovation policy measures at the Lujiazui Forum, but the overall sentiment remained positive. With the spread of geopolitical conflict news, the bulls became active again. Currently, the easing trend remains unchanged, and the long - end futures price has broken through the previous oscillation range, presenting a new trial - long opportunity [2][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance - Treasury bond futures opened higher but then declined with the opening of the Lujiazui Forum, and then showed a weak performance. In the afternoon, the prices fluctuated upward, with TS and TL closing higher at the end of the session, while TF and T closed slightly lower. The central bank had a net withdrawal of 970 million yuan in the open market [2] - On June 18, 2025, for different contracts: TS2509 rose 0.002 to 102.538, TF2509 fell 0.02 to 106.275, T2509 fell 0.015 to 109.135, and TL2509 rose 0.08 to 120.87. There were also corresponding changes in contract positions, basis, and trading volume [5] 2. Market News - At the opening ceremony of the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, the central bank governor announced the establishment of a digital RMB international operation center in Shanghai to promote the international operation of digital RMB and the development of financial market business [3] 3. Market Analysis and Operation Suggestions - The announcement of innovation policy measures by the central bank governor at the forum led to the disappointment of the "small essay" and a weakening of the bond market. However, the market's expectation of monetary policy easing continued. With the spread of geopolitical conflict news, the bulls became active again under the risk - aversion sentiment [4] - In terms of operation, the recent easing trend remains unchanged, but there is a lack of incremental factors to push interest rates to a new lower level. The long - end futures price has broken through the previous oscillation range, and the support - resistance conversion level can be regarded as a new trial - long opportunity [4]