Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the decline in China's gasoline production, with a reported production of 12.16 million tons in April 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 8.6% [1] - Cumulative gasoline production from January to April 2025 reached 51.18 million tons, showing a cumulative decline of 6.1% compared to the previous year [1] Group 2 - The article references companies involved in the industry, including Baoli International (300135), Hengji Daxin (002492), and Sinopec (600028) [1] - The data is sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics and compiled by Zhiyan Consulting, which specializes in industry research and market analysis [2]

Core Insights - Yunnan Province has achieved significant growth in its power generation capacity, with total installed capacity exceeding 167 million kilowatts, a 61.8% increase compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [1] - The province leads the nation in green power generation, with over 150 million kilowatts of installed green power capacity, and has established a national clean energy base [1] - Yunnan's energy transition has shown remarkable progress, with renewable energy installations surpassing 68 million kilowatts, making it the second-largest power source after hydropower [1][2] Group 1: Green Energy Development - Yunnan has a strong complementary relationship among hydropower, wind, and solar energy, with over 200 million kilowatts of clean energy resources available for development [1] - The province has six of the top ten hydropower stations in the country, contributing to the world's largest clean energy corridor alongside the Three Gorges and Gezhouba hydropower stations [1] - By 2025, Yunnan's total power generation is expected to reach 490 billion kilowatt-hours, with green power accounting for over 85% of the total [1] Group 2: Traditional Energy Supply - From 2021 to 2024, Yunnan's raw coal production is projected to increase from 57.96 million tons to 66.12 million tons, and crude oil processing capacity is expected to rise from 9.76 million tons to 11.56 million tons [2] - The construction of a second cross-province natural gas pipeline is underway, which will diversify the natural gas supply in Yunnan [2] - The establishment of emergency gas supply centers in Yuxi and Qujing marks a significant step in achieving large-scale reserves of natural gas and oil [2] Group 3: Energy Infrastructure and Future Plans - Yunnan has transmitted a cumulative 650 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity to eastern regions, supporting their economic development and energy conservation efforts [2] - The province aims to accelerate the construction of a national clean energy base and a regional green energy hub during the 15th Five-Year Plan period [2] - By 2030, Yunnan plans to establish a new type of power system and achieve significant progress in green energy development [2]

Group 1 - The company, Unified Holdings, announced that its ninth board meeting will be held on October 11, 2025, combining in-person and remote voting methods [1] - The meeting will review proposals including the agenda for the fourth extraordinary shareholders' meeting of 2025 [1] Group 2 - The article discusses a significant investment trend involving major companies like Nvidia and OpenAI, highlighting a "century gamble" worth trillions of dollars [1] - Experts suggest that the scale of the AI bubble has reached four times that of the 2008 global real estate bubble [1]

成本方面，据东海期货介绍，后期原油仍将受到OPEC+增产冲击而走低，在沥青库存压力增加的情况 下，后期仍需关注原油价格下方支撑力度。 供应端，冠通期货指出，国庆节前一周沥青开工率环比回升5.7个百分点至40.1%，较去年同期高了12.4 个百分点，沥青开工率回升幅度较大，升至近年同期中性水平。据隆众资讯数据，10月份国内沥青预计 排产268.2万吨，环比减少0.4万吨，减幅为0.1%，同比增加35.0万吨，增幅为15.0%。 周五（10月10日）夜盘，国内期市能化板块大面积飘绿。其中，沥青期货呈现震荡下行走势，主力合约 报收于3307.00元/吨，跌幅达1.17%。 需求方面，瑞达期货（002961）分析称，间歇性降水天气抑制南方施工节奏，叠加下游资金压力持续， 采购重心维持低位，高价资源成交仍显乏力。 后市来看，东吴期货表示，9月第4周行业数据显示炼厂供需双强，炼厂开工率进一步上行，时隔两年首 次站上40%，而炼厂出货量因节前备货维持强劲。本周厂库低位反弹，因开工强劲，社会库存持续下 降，曲线仍然显著落后于往年同期，随着旺季不断深入将限制沥青上行空间。隔夜外盘油价小幅下跌， 预计沥青短线走势震荡偏弱。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The downward trend of asphalt valuation in the second half of the year is likely. The current independent refinery operation rate is at a low level, with limited room for further decline. The return of major refinery production capacity and the seasonal off - peak valuation period will restrict the upward space of asphalt valuation (asphalt/crude oil), and the weak oscillation of the cost - side crude oil will also limit the upward space of the unilateral price of asphalt [16]. - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of asphalt is small, and it is recommended to wait and see [17]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The report presents the recent trend of the asphalt main contract, showing the price changes from January to October 2025, and analyzes the impact of supply - demand and cost factors on the price [13][14]. - **Mid - term Impact Factor Assessment** - **Supply**: Import is expected to remain low. Major refineries are expected to resume some operations, restricting the upward movement of asphalt valuation. However, the significant recovery of local refineries is needed for the valuation to decline, and local refineries are expected to remain relatively sluggish in the short and medium term [16]. - **Demand**: The demand - side operation rate has improved slightly compared to previous years, but the overall asphalt shipment volume is lower than expected. The infrastructure peak season has passed, and the overall demand is expected to be flat [16]. - **Cost**: The upward space of oil prices in the second half of the year is limited. With the gradual increase in production by OPEC, the wide - range oscillation center of oil prices is expected to move down slightly. Shale oil will play a bottom - supporting role, and there is no continuous trend market [16]. - **Short - term Factor Assessment** - **Supply**: The production rate of heavy - traffic asphalt has started to decline, and imports are expected to remain low due to geopolitical factors [17]. - **Demand**: The operation rates of all demand - side segments are weak, especially the waterproofing membrane sector [17]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory shows difficulty in destocking, and the social inventory fails to meet the destocking expectation, with the total domestic inventory accumulating more than expected [17]. - **Cost**: The crude oil cost is expected to stop falling and stabilize, as the current oil price has entered the break - even price range of some U.S. shale oil production areas [17]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price**: The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, Northeast, East China, and North China regions [20][23][24][26]. - **Basis Trend**: It presents the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions from 2021 to 2025 [31]. - **Term Structure**: It shows the term structure of asphalt and the price differences between different contract months [34][35]. 3. Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization and Profit**: It shows the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt, the production profit of Shandong asphalt, and the relationship between asphalt profit and crude oil price [41][44][47]. - **Import**: It includes the import volume, import profit, and cumulative import volume from different countries of asphalt, as well as the import volume of diluted asphalt [49][50][56]. - **Valuation Ratio**: It presents the valuation ratios of fuel oil/asphalt and asphalt/Brent [59]. - **Refinery Profit**: It shows the refining profits of major refineries and Shandong local refineries, as well as the operation rate and production profit of petroleum coke [62][65]. 4. Inventory - **Domestic Inventory**: It shows the trends of domestic factory inventory, social inventory, total inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [70]. - **Warehouse Receipt**: It presents the asphalt warehouse receipt volume and the virtual - to - real ratio of the main contract [73]. - **Relationship between Inventory, Profit, and Price**: It analyzes the relationships between inventory, profit, and price [77]. 5. Demand Side - **Enterprise Shipment Volume**: It shows the asphalt shipment volumes of Chinese, Shandong, East China, and North China sample enterprises [81][83][87]. - **Downstream Operation Rate**: It presents the operation rates of rubber shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membranes, etc. [92][93][95]. - **Highway Investment**: It shows the cumulative value of highway construction investment, the monthly year - on - year and monthly values of transportation public fiscal expenditure, and the relationship between asphalt demand and transportation fiscal expenditure [97][100][107]. - **Road - related Machinery**: It shows the monthly sales volumes of road rollers and excavators [108]. - **Related Consumption**: It shows the fixed - asset investment completion rate and the cumulative issuance of local government special bonds [114]. 6. Related Indicators - **Position, Trading Volume, and Price Volatility**: It shows the trading volume, position, and 20 - day historical volatility of asphalt futures [122][123][125]. 7. Industrial Chain Structure Diagram - **Crude Oil Industrial Chain**: It briefly describes the exploration and extraction links of the crude oil industrial chain [130]. - **Asphalt Industrial Chain**: It classifies asphalt from production process and usage perspectives, indicating that straight - run asphalt has the largest production share and is mainly used for road construction, and asphalt is mainly used for waterproofing, anti - corrosion, and road construction [133].

燃料油产业数据月报 研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2025年10月10日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 01 观点综述 | 月度观点综述 | | | --- | --- | | 供需 | 炼厂开工与产量方面，全球主要产区燃料油产量总体上升，但俄罗斯地区炼厂开工下降明显，其燃料油 | | 产量以及出口数量环比明显下降。需求方面，中东发电需求开始逐步接近尾声，沙特9月燃料油进口数量 | | | 继续下降，而炼化端中国、印度等地的燃料油进口仍然没有明显的增长。 | | | 价格与价差 硫的裂解也相对低硫更强。 | 绝对价格方面，全球各地燃料油价格月内涨跌互现，各地高硫价格走势明显强于低硫，同时部分地区高 | | 高硫方面，中东出口维持高位，9月内整个亚太区域现货成交相对清淡，成交升贴水呈现低位震荡形态。 | | | 需要注意的是，俄罗斯炼油产能由于乌克兰无人机袭击，目前有20%左右的产能处于下线状态；同时，由 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall Outlook**: The supply pressure of asphalt is currently high, while the demand recovery is weak. The market is expected to experience narrow - range fluctuations in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3354 - 3396 [8]. - **Supply - side**: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% but a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The sample capacity utilization rate was 42.0062%, up 5.632 percentage points month - on - month. Sample enterprise production increased by 15.49% month - on - month, but the estimated device maintenance volume decreased by 14.02% month - on - month. Refineries increased production recently, raising supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [8]. - **Demand - side**: The current demand for asphalt is lower than the historical average. The开工率 of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes is either flat or down compared to the previous period and lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost - side**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 596.95 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 14.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 779.8729 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10.36%. The loss of asphalt processing decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term cost support is expected to weaken [8]. - **Market Factors**: Bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support. Bearish factors are insufficient demand for high - priced sources, overall downward demand, and stronger expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Supply**: Supply pressure remains high, with refineries increasing production recently but a possible decrease in supply pressure next week [8]. - **Demand**: Demand recovery is weak, with current demand lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: Short - term cost support is expected to weaken due to the weakening of crude oil [8]. - **Other Aspects**: The basis shows a bullish sign with the spot price at a premium to the futures price. Inventories are showing a neutral trend with continuous destocking in social, factory, and port inventories. The futures price of the 11 - contract is below the MA20, showing a bearish sign. The net long position of the main contract has changed from short to long, showing a bullish sign [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Yesterday's Market Overview**: Various indicators such as futures contracts, inventories, and production showed different trends of increase or decrease. For example, the 01 contract price decreased by 1.52% compared to the previous value [15]. - **Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend**: Provided the historical trend charts of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt [17]. - **Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis**: Included the spread trends of main contracts (such as 1 - 6, 6 - 12), the price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil, the crude oil cracking spread, and the price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [20][23][26][30]. - **Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions**: Showed the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt [33]. - **Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis**: Included the profit trends of asphalt and the profit - spread trends between coking and asphalt [35][38]. - **Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Supply - side**: Covered aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production (weekly and monthly), Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, local refinery asphalt production, capacity utilization rate, and estimated maintenance loss volume [42][44][47]. - **Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Inventory**: Included exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and the inventory - to - stock ratio in factories [62][66][69]. - **Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Import and Export Situation**: Showed the export and import trends of asphalt and the import - price spread trend of South Korean asphalt [72][75]. - **Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Demand - side**: Included petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment), downstream machinery demand, asphalt 开工率 (by different types), and downstream 开工率 (such as shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane) [78][81][84]. - **Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presented the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to September 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand [104].

Core Insights - Singapore's middle distillates stockpiles have reached a three-month high, indicating a significant increase in inventory levels [1] - Net exports of diesel and jet fuel have both decreased compared to the previous week, suggesting a potential slowdown in demand or supply chain adjustments [1] Industry Summary - The rise in middle distillates stockpiles may impact pricing and market dynamics for diesel and jet fuel in the region [1] - The decline in net exports could reflect broader trends in the energy market, potentially affecting regional supply and demand balances [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年10月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | 供给端来看 | 根据隆众 | 2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241 | 3万吨 | 环比降幅5 | 同比 | 1% | ， | ， | ， | , | . | . | 增幅17 | 本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为42 | 环比增加5 | 632个百分点 | 全国样 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Core Insights - The petroleum coke production in Fujian Province for June 2025 was 40,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 11.0% and a decline in growth rate of 23.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1][4] - For the first half of 2025, the total petroleum coke production in Fujian Province was 243,000 tons, which is a 6.6% decrease year-on-year, with a growth rate decline of 30.4 percentage points compared to the previous year [4] Monthly Production Analysis - In June 2025, Fujian's petroleum coke production accounted for 1.6% of the national total production of 2,549,000 tons [1] - The production decline in June was 8.6 percentage points lower than the national average [1] Cumulative Production Analysis - From January to June 2025, Fujian's petroleum coke production also represented 1.6% of the national total of 15,674,000 tons [4] - The growth rate for the first half of 2025 was 2.1 percentage points lower than the national average [4]