大摩闭门会：汽车、工业、交运、房地产行业更新 260128 摘要 航空业发动机维修维护高峰期预计在 2026-2028 年，春秋航空已受影 响。春运期间票价和需求健康，预计春节期间机票不会大幅降价。国际 航线票价优于国内，但成本通胀和维修费用上升构成压力，低油价和利 用小时提升可部分抵消。 快递行业管理层预计 2026 年件量增长接近 10%，高于市场悲观预期。 头部企业如中通和圆通追求高于行业平均的增速，反内卷政策延续，利 好头部企业集中份额，优化成本结构，极兔和圆通积极拓展国际市场。 房地产市场二手房成交量改善，但主要受短期因素影响，对可持续性持 保留态度。预计 2026 年房地产政策延续温和态势，大力度刺激政策可 能性较低，高库存弱情绪下，房价或延续量价齐低态势，全国二手房价 预计继续下降。 华润万象 2026-2027 年增速放缓担忧过度，第三方商场扩张可支撑利 润增长。若利润增速 10%，2026 年股息率 5.2%，2027 年接近 6%， 股价仍有上涨空间，建议持续关注。 工业行业整体需求复苏，设备需求进入上升周期，与数据中心、储能或 机器人相关公司增长强劲。看好 AIDC 设备相关板块，受益于 ...

广发证券资深宏观分析师 陈嘉荔 gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 正文 美联储 2026 年 1 月 27-28 日举行议息会议 ， FOMC 官员投票保持联邦基金利率在 3.5%-3.75% ，这 是自 2025 年 9 月重启降息后的第一次暂停。理事沃勒和米兰投反对票，倾向于在此次会议上降息 25 个基 点。本次议息会议决议在市场预期之内，相对更为重要的信息是：（ 1 ）美联储对后续货币政策路径的表 态；（ 2 ）美联储对就业市场和通胀的评估。 2022 年 3 月、 5 月、 6 月、 7 月、 9 月、 11 月、 12 月以及 2023 年 2 月、 3 月、 5 月、 7 月美 联储先后十一次上调基准利率。其中 2022 年 3 月加息幅度为 25bp ， 5 月为 50bp ， 6 月 -11 月每次 加息 75bp ， 12 月为 50bp ， 2023 年 2 月、 3 月、 5 月、 7 月为 25bp ； 6 月为首次暂停加息， 9 月为第二次暂停， 11 月为第三次暂停， 12 月为第四次暂停， 2024 年 1 月为第五次暂停， 3 月为第六 次暂停， 5 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the aviation industry, specifically regarding recent adjustments in pricing and oil prices affecting airline operations [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - The aviation sector has experienced significant adjustments primarily due to two factors: 1. The "anti-involution" trend in civil aviation has shown signs of easing, with routes such as Chengdu-Hangzhou, Chengdu-Wuxi, and Changchun-Nanjing witnessing ticket prices dropping below 400/540 yuan [1][2]. 2. There has been a phase of rebound in international oil prices, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices increasing by approximately 3% in a single day. This increase is attributed to uncertainties surrounding the situation in Iran, disturbances from a cold wave in the U.S., and a weakening dollar. The overall sentiment is leaning towards a risk premium return rather than a reversal in supply-demand dynamics, keeping the price levels within a manageable range for airlines [2][3]. - Feedback from the Spring Festival travel season indicates a generally optimistic outlook, with rapid booking progress and rational ticket price discounts. The recovery pace of supply is also deemed controllable, supporting a positive market sentiment [3]. - The current adjustments in the aviation sector are viewed as a re-pricing of policy expectations and a resonance with macro commodity sentiments. The logic of the industry "emerging from deflation" is still unfolding, and it is recommended to dynamically track Spring Festival data alongside the subsequent trends in oil price declines [3]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The call invites further discussions regarding Spring Festival volume and pricing, indicating an openness to engage with stakeholders for deeper insights [4].

Group 1: Importance of China to the UK - China is recognized as the world's second-largest economy and the UK's third-largest trading partner, playing an irreplaceable role in the UK's economic development and livelihood security [1] - The visit by UK Prime Minister Starmer marks the first official visit to China by a UK Prime Minister in eight years, reflecting a desire for a coherent and strategic UK-China relationship [1] - Starmer emphasized that past indecisiveness in UK-China policy led to missed opportunities, and China's influence is now crucial to the lives of the British people [1] Group 2: Economic and Trade Cooperation - The UK government aims to deepen bilateral economic and trade relations, with a focus on sectors such as financial services, advanced manufacturing, and energy transition, which align well with China's economic needs [2] - The UK Treasury highlighted that cooperation with China in the financial sector could directly benefit UK employment and business development, especially as the FTSE index reaches new highs [2] - Major UK companies, including AstraZeneca, Jaguar Land Rover, and HSBC, are participating in the delegation to China, indicating the importance of the Chinese market for their growth and innovation [2] Group 3: Cultural and Scientific Collaboration - The UK Natural History Museum has been collaborating with Chinese partners for fifteen years, showcasing the importance of cultural exchange and the potential for further cooperation in research and knowledge sharing [3] - Representatives from cultural institutions, such as the National Theatre, expressed that cultural exchanges enhance emotional resonance between the two nations, providing lasting motivation for UK-China relations [4] - The consensus among UK political, business, and cultural sectors is that deepening practical cooperation with China is in the mutual interest of both countries [4]

Core Viewpoint - The innovation capability of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is crucial for China's modernization and economic development, as emphasized by Xi Jinping's discussions on the importance of SOEs in various contexts [1][2][4]. Group 1: Importance of SOEs - SOEs are a vital foundation for socialism with Chinese characteristics, contributing significantly to economic development, technological progress, and national defense [1][2]. - The role of SOEs is to serve the national strategy, support high-quality economic development, and fulfill social responsibilities [2][4]. Group 2: Innovation Capability - Innovation capability encompasses both technological and non-technological aspects, including product, brand, organizational, and business model innovations [3]. - SOEs' innovation capability is a complex system that integrates various dimensions, including technological innovation and institutional innovation [3][11]. Group 3: International Comparison - Unlike SOEs in Western capitalist countries, which primarily address market failures, China's SOEs are integral to the national innovation system and play a leading role in economic and technological advancements [4]. Group 4: Macro Perspective - The global landscape is rapidly changing, necessitating SOEs to enhance their innovation capabilities to maintain competitive advantages and ensure national security [5]. - SOEs are essential for improving the overall effectiveness of the national innovation system and enhancing self-reliance in technology [5]. Group 5: Micro Perspective - Innovation is a core driver of enterprise development, enhancing market competitiveness and adaptability [7]. - SOEs must address deep-rooted issues to strengthen their core functions and competitiveness, aiming to become world-class enterprises [7]. Group 6: Recent Developments - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, SOEs have significantly increased their R&D investments, with central enterprises' R&D expenditures exceeding 1 trillion yuan annually [9]. - SOEs are focusing on strategic emerging industries, with investments in these sectors reaching 2.5 trillion yuan by 2025, accounting for 41.8% of total investments [9]. Group 7: Achievements - SOEs have made substantial progress in developing original technologies and overcoming critical technical barriers, contributing to major national projects in various fields [10]. - Key achievements include advancements in high-speed rail, commercial aircraft, and energy technologies, showcasing SOEs' role as a backbone of the economy [10]. Group 8: Future Directions - There is a need for SOEs to enhance their innovation capabilities further, particularly in original innovation and the integration of technology and industry [14][15]. - Strengthening the innovation ecosystem and increasing foundational research investments are essential for sustaining long-term innovation [17][19].

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market continued its upward trend with all three major indices closing higher: Hang Seng Index up 2.58% at 27,826.91 points, Hang Seng Tech Index up 2.53% at 5,900.16 points, and the National Enterprises Index up 2.89% at 9,512.24 points [2] - Leading sectors included optical communications, oil, gold, telecommunications, and real estate, while tea and aviation stocks faced downward pressure [3] Optical Communications - Demand for AI infrastructure has spurred the optical communications industry, with Changfei Optical Fiber Cable (06869.HK) leading the sector, closing up 15.43% at 75.20 HKD [4][5] - Corning, a major player in the fiber optics market, saw a single-day increase of over 15%, reaching a historical high, following a long-term agreement with Meta for the procurement of $6 billion worth of fiber optic cables by 2030 [4] Energy Sector - Geopolitical risks have heightened energy security expectations, with China National Offshore Oil Corporation (00883.HK) and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00857.HK) both reaching historical highs, closing up 4.85% and 4.99% respectively [5][6] - The U.S. military's recent military exercises in the Middle East have raised concerns about energy supply stability, contributing to the rise in oil stocks [6] Gold Market - The weakening U.S. dollar has stimulated international gold prices, with Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693.HK) rising 10.65% [7] - The dollar index experienced its largest single-day drop since April 2023, pushing gold prices above $5,200 per ounce [7] Telecommunications - The telecommunications sector is entering a new phase of "deep integration," with China Telecom (00728.HK) rising 6.27% [9] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reported that the three major operators have added 108,000 data center racks, indicating a shift in focus from "broad coverage" to "deep integration" [9] Real Estate - Regulatory optimizations have boosted confidence in the real estate sector, with China Jinmao (00817.HK) rising 11.92% [11] - Feedback from multiple real estate companies indicates that the regulatory body has lifted the monthly reporting requirements for most firms, enhancing market expectations for liquidity and operational environment improvements [11] Individual Stock Movements - Wuneng Zhixing (00800.HK) rose 2.11% as it prepares to launch autonomous buses in Abu Dhabi [17][18] - Kuaishou-W (01024.HK) increased by 4.44%, with its AI product, Keling, surpassing 12 million monthly active users and achieving a 350% growth in paid users [19]

来源：中国新闻网 1月28日，广东省十四届人大五次会议召开地市专场记者会。程景伟 摄 广州市市长：力争地铁运营里程突破800公里 中新网广州1月28日电 (记者 程景伟)广东省十四届人大五次会议28日召开地市专场记者会，广州市委副 书记、市长孙志洋回答中新网记者提问时称，在陆路交通建设上，广州将高质量推进4个国铁、7个城 际、8个地铁等一批续建项目，力争地铁运营里程突破800公里，加快推进狮子洋通道等11个高速公路项 目，打造更完整的综合立体交通网。 孙志洋表示，广州将加速打造"空铁联运、江海联动"的立体交通网络，增强全球高端资源要素集聚辐射 能力。其中，在临空经济方面，广州正在积极争取白云机场高峰时刻扩容及航权分配等政策支持；在临 港经济方面，培育做强大湾区(南沙)临港产业集聚区等重点平台，推动设立大湾区航运联合交易中心香 港子公司，加快推进南沙港区国际通用码头、南沙港五期等工程建设，20万吨级航道工程等重大项目陆 续启动。 据介绍，在物流枢纽建设上，广州将强化白云机场、南沙港区、广州国际港等物流枢纽功能布局及衔接 联动，搭建贸易数据链、物流出行链一体化平台，探索国际中转集拼等制度创新，打造智能高效的现代 ...

Core Insights - The ticket prices for popular travel routes are significantly increasing as the Spring Festival approaches, with many flights from cities like Beijing, Chengdu, Wuhan, and Changsha to Sanya seeing economy class prices exceeding 1800 yuan, and some peak times even surpassing 4000 yuan [1][8] - The price surge is not limited to specific dates but has been gradually increasing since a week before the holiday, indicating a typical market response to high demand during peak travel periods [8] Price Trends - For flights from Chengdu to Sanya, economy class prices in early February are concentrated above 2000 yuan, marking a noticeable increase compared to regular pricing [1][4] - Some travelers have reported that ticket prices have risen from over 1000 yuan to nearly 2000 yuan within just a few days, leading to cancellations or alternative travel arrangements to manage costs [4] Market Dynamics - The increase in ticket prices is attributed to the high travel demand during the Spring Festival, a peak season for air travel, particularly to Sanya, a traditional winter vacation destination [8] - Industry experts suggest that travelers should plan their trips in advance or consider alternative routes and off-peak travel times to mitigate costs [8]

Group 1: Industrial Transition Overview - The report highlights that global industrial transition is entering a decisive phase by 2025, with a clear decarbonization path established[3] - The focus has shifted from "can emissions be reduced" to "how to achieve large-scale reductions at acceptable costs"[6] - In 2024, global CO2 emissions are projected to reach 3.82 billion tons, marking a historical high with a year-on-year increase of 0.9%[8] Group 2: Key Challenges - Five core constraints identified include technology deployment pace differences, insufficient low-carbon demand, fragmented policies, infrastructure gaps, and uneven capital allocation[4] - Approximately 50% of industrial emissions can be reduced using existing mature technologies, while the remaining emissions rely on advanced technologies like hydrogen and CCUS[6] - The rising interest rates are expected to increase the costs of wind and solar energy by approximately 30%[6] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - In 2024, the aviation sector is expected to see a 10.4% increase in operational activity, contributing 1.108 billion tons of CO2 emissions, a 6.4% rise from the previous year[8] - The cement and steel industries are projected to experience slight decreases in emissions, while sectors like aviation and aluminum will see significant increases[8] Group 4: Policy and Economic Environment - The global industrial transition exhibits significant regional differentiation, with the EU leading compliance, the US balancing incentives and compliance, and emerging markets developing frameworks[14] - The economic environment is characterized by rising interest rates and cost inflation, which elevate the economic feasibility threshold for low-carbon projects[15] Group 5: Recommendations for Scaling Transition - The report suggests five strategic actions to promote large-scale transition: standardizing demand mechanisms, accelerating shared infrastructure construction, optimizing financing costs, prioritizing mature technology deployment, and enhancing policy and innovation collaboration[23]

Group 1: Industrial Transition Overview - The report highlights that global industrial transition is entering a decisive phase by 2025, with a clear decarbonization path established[3] - Approximately 50% of industrial emissions can be reduced using existing mature technologies, while the remaining emissions rely on deep innovation and large-scale application of frontier technologies like hydrogen and CCUS[6] - In 2024, global CO2 emissions are projected to reach 38.2 billion tons, marking a historical high with a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, where high-emission industries contribute nearly 40% of the emission growth[8] Group 2: Key Challenges - The core challenges for high-emission industries have shifted from technical feasibility to economic feasibility and system coordination for large-scale deployment[4] - Five main constraints identified include: technology deployment pace differences, insufficient low-carbon demand, fragmented policies, infrastructure gaps, and uneven capital allocation[4] - The rise in interest rates and cost inflation has increased the economic viability threshold for low-carbon projects, making financing and policy coordination critical for project implementation[15] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - In the aviation sector, operational activity is expected to grow by 10.4% in 2024, with emissions increasing to 1.108 billion tons, a rise of 6.4%[8] - The shipping industry will see a 5.5% increase in operational activity, with emissions reaching 0.847 billion tons, up by 2.7%[8] - The cement and steel industries are projected to experience slight decreases in emissions, while sectors like aluminum and basic chemicals will see significant increases in emissions[8] Group 4: Policy and Economic Environment - The global industrial transition exhibits significant regional differentiation, with the EU leading compliance, the US balancing incentives and compliance, and emerging markets developing frameworks[14] - The EU's carbon market is expected to cover over 45% of industrial emissions by 2030, while the US faces policy volatility affecting corporate decision-making[14] - Emerging markets like China and India are accelerating carbon accounting systems, but face challenges in policy maturity and infrastructure development[14] Group 5: Recommendations for Scaling Transition - Establish standardized low-carbon demand mechanisms to enhance the credibility of demand signals and promote public procurement of low-carbon products[23] - Accelerate the construction of shared infrastructure, including integrated energy networks and CO2 transport pipelines, to support large-scale reductions[23] - Innovate financial tools to lower financing costs and support the scaling of frontier technologies like hydrogen and CCUS[24]