Group 1: EC Futures Market Data - EC2506 had a closing price of 1768.0 with a 5.41% increase, volume of 31117, and an open interest of 22184 with a decrease of 3723 [2] - EC2508 had a closing price of 2206.0 with a 4.00% increase, volume of 91292, and an open interest of 51631 with a decrease of 1405 [2] - EC2510 had a closing price of 1451.9 with a 2.28% increase, volume of 13997, and an open interest of 22549 with a decrease of 1372 [2] - EC2512 had a closing price of 1617.3 with a 2.78% increase, volume of 2266, and an open interest of 4693 with a decrease of 185 [2] - EC2602 had a closing price of 1450.2 with a 2.36% increase, volume of 532, and an open interest of 2799 with a decrease of 111 [2] - EC2604 had a closing price of 1266.0 with a 1.44% increase, volume of 648, and an open interest of 3151 with a decrease of 148 [2] - The month - spread of EC2506 - 2508 had a previous day value of - 438.0, a month - on - month increase of 5.9, and a week - on - week increase of 157.0 [2] - The month - spread of EC2508 - 2510 had a previous day value of 754.1, a month - on - month increase of 52.6, and a week - on - week decrease of 80.9 [2] - The month - spread of EC2506 - 2510 had a previous day value of 316.1, a month - on - month increase of 58.5, and a week - on - week increase of 76.1 [2] - The month - spread of EC2510 - 2512 had a previous day value of - 165.4, a month - on - month decrease of 11.4, and a week - on - week decrease of 15.4 [2] - The month - spread of EC2512 - 2602 had a previous day value of 167.1, a month - on - month increase of 10.3, and a week - on - week decrease of 8.4 [2] Group 2: Shipping Index Data - SCHIS was 1265.3 on 2025/5/19, down 2.86% from the previous period and 5.54% from two periods ago [2] - SCFI was 1154 $/TEU on 2025/5/16, down 0.60% from the previous period [2] - CCFI was 1430.35 points on 2025/5/16, down 1.03% from the previous period [2] - NCFI was 750.91 points on 2025/5/16, down 0.78% from the previous period and 0.94% from two periods ago [2] - TCI (European line) was 646.15 points on 2025/5/22, unchanged from the previous periods [2] - FBX11 was 2459 $/FEU on 2025/5/16, up 2.57% from the previous period and 6.05% from two periods ago [2] - WCI was 2035 $/FEU on 2025/5/15, down 0.54% from the previous period and 7.08% from two periods ago [2] - XSI - C was 1909 $/FEU on 2025/5/19, down 0.42% from the previous period and 0.98% from two periods ago [2] Group 3: Shipping Capacity and Price Information - In May and June 2025 (tentatively), the weekly average shipping capacities were 30.3 and 30.5 million TEU respectively. OA added two sailings cancellations in week 23, and PA added one in week 24 [2] - In the second half of May, the European line quotes decreased month - on - month, reaching around 1200 - 1250 points at the end of May [3] - For June, shipping companies except MSK planned to raise prices by an average of 3000 US dollars (equivalent to 2050 points on the disk), and MSK planned to raise prices by 2200 US dollars, lower than market expectations. HMM lowered prices to 2500 US dollars, and the average price of shipping companies on the disk was 2000 points [3] Group 4: Shipping News - On 5/21, the EU was considering modifying the tax - free policy for small packages under 150 euros entering its territory and planned to impose a unified tariff. France was actively promoting additional fees for such packages, and the UK and Japan were considering similar measures [4] - On 5/21, G7 members began discussing imposing tariffs on low - value, oversupplied goods from China [4] Group 5: Middle East Situation News - On 5/22, Hamas stated that it would not give up armed resistance and denied that its military leader was killed. It also rejected Israel's cease - fire preconditions and arrangements for Gaza's future [5] - On 5/22, according to US media, Israel was preparing to quickly strike Iran's nuclear facilities if the US - Iran negotiations broke down [6]

Group 1 - Industrial production remains stable, with a slight year-on-year decrease in blast furnace operating rates by 0.5 percentage points to 2.6% [2][5] - In the chemical sector, except for a significant drop in soda ash production, other areas like PTA and polyester filament show improvement, with year-on-year increases of 3.4 percentage points to 4.7% and 1.9 percentage points to 4.8% respectively [2][17] - The automotive semi-steel tire operating rate has improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 15.5 percentage points to -2.4% [2][17] Group 2 - Construction industry shows mixed performance; national grinding operating rates and cement shipment rates are significantly lower than last year, with year-on-year changes of 1.5 percentage points to -3.5% and -0.6 percentage points to -6.9% respectively [2][28] - Asphalt operating rates have increased significantly, with a year-on-year rise of 4.8 percentage points to 6.8% [2][40] Group 3 - The real estate market continues to decline, with average daily transaction area for new homes dropping by 45.7% year-on-year to -12% [2][52] - Port cargo throughput and container throughput related to exports have also decreased, with year-on-year declines of 15.3% to -6.2% and 7.1% to -0.3% respectively [2][63] Group 4 - Agricultural product prices show divergence; vegetable and egg prices have decreased by 2.2% and 0.6% respectively, while pork prices remain stable and fruit prices have increased by 0.7% [3][105] - Industrial product prices have rebounded, with the South China industrial product price index rising by 2% [3][117]

| | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/5/22 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导致 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 (%) | 基美 | 昨日成交量 | 昨日持仓量 | | 持仓变动 | | | EC2506 | | 1677,2 | -2.82 | -411.9 | 28893 | | 25907 | 352 | | | EC2508 | | 2121.1 | -6.27 | -855.8 | 100512 | | 53036 | 1266 | | | EC2510 | | 1419.6 | -1.14 | -154.3 | 15589 | | 23921 | -166 | | | EC2512 | | 1573.6 | -1.90 | -308.3 | 1762 | | 4878 | -82 | | | EC2602 | | 1416.8 | -0.99 | -151.5 | 839 | | 2910 | -133 | | | EC2604 | | 1248.0 | -0. ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the stable operation of industrial production, marginal improvement in infrastructure construction, and the divergent trends in shipping prices, indicating a mixed economic recovery landscape. Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains stable, with the blast furnace operating rate showing resilience, down by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 2.6% [2][5] - In the chemical sector, except for a significant drop in soda ash production, other areas like PTA and polyester filament have improved, with year-on-year increases of 3.4 percentage points to 4.7% and 1.9 percentage points to 4.8%, respectively [2][17] - The operating rate of automotive semi-steel tires has also improved significantly, up by 15.5 percentage points year-on-year to -2.4% [2][17] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry shows mixed performance, with national grinding operating rates and cement shipment rates significantly lower than the same period last year, up by 1.5 percentage points to -3.5% and down by 0.6 percentage points to -6.9%, respectively [2][28] - Asphalt operating rates have seen a notable increase, up by 4.8 percentage points year-on-year to 6.8% [2][40] Group 3: Downstream Demand - The transaction volume of commercial housing continues to decline, with the average daily transaction area of new homes down by 45.7% year-on-year to -12% [2][52] - Port cargo throughput and container throughput related to exports have also decreased, down by 15.3% to -6.2% and 7.1% to -0.3%, respectively [2][63] - Shipping prices show divergence, with the West America route continuing to rise while Southeast Asia route prices have significantly dropped [2][93] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are mixed, with vegetable and egg prices falling by 2.2% and 0.6% respectively, while pork prices remain stable and fruit prices have increased by 0.7% [3][105] - The industrial product price index has risen by 2% week-on-week, with the energy and chemical price index up by 2.1% and the metal price index up by 1.8% [3][117]

Group 1 - The coal industry is expected to see a decline in operating revenue in 2024, with a decrease in operating cash flow and significant net outflow in investment cash flow. However, overall debt repayment capability remains strong despite high leverage and increasing debt levels [4] - In 2025, coal enterprises' profitability will still be constrained, but there will be support for overall profitability. Operating cash flow is expected to remain relatively ample, while investment cash flow will continue to show a rigid net outflow [4] Group 2 - The banking sector is experiencing a systematic decline in interest rates due to recent monetary policy measures, with an expected improvement in industry interest margins by over 5 basis points. The management of funding costs is anticipated to alleviate pressure on interest margins [5] - The banking sector's fundamentals are stable, and there is optimism regarding the performance of bank stocks moving forward [5] Group 3 - In April 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.72 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, although the growth rate decreased by 0.8 percentage points compared to March. From January to April, the total retail sales amounted to 16.18 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.7%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year [6] - The restaurant industry is showing signs of recovery, with an increase in the number of stores and a rise in market activity in first-tier cities. Policy stimuli are expected to improve demand, while competition among stores is intensifying [10] Group 4 - The recent easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S. has led to a surge in shipping demand, resulting in a rapid increase in freight rates for routes between the U.S. and China. The average freight rates for the U.S. West and East routes rose by 31.7% and 22.0%, respectively [8]

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Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Financial Products**: A-share index has stable lower support and high upper breakthrough pressure; short - term treasury bonds may oscillate; precious metals show certain price patterns and trends; the rally of the container shipping index may slow down [2]. - **Industrial Products**: Industrial materials demand and inventory are deteriorating; iron ore, coke, and other black commodities have different price trends and market situations; various energy and chemical products have different supply - demand and price characteristics [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products such as soybeans, hogs, and sugar have their own market trends and influencing factors [2]. - **Special and New Energy Commodities**: Glass market sentiment is pessimistic; rubber prices are affected by news; new energy products like lithium carbonate are in a downward trend [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Index has stable lower support and high upper breakthrough pressure. A - shares open lower and oscillate with trading volume maintaining at the trillion - level. Suggest selling put options on the support level of IF2506 to earn premiums, or going long on September IM contracts on pullbacks and selling call options with an exercise price of 6400 on September contracts for covered strategies [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term treasury bonds may oscillate, waiting for fundamental guidance. The 10 - year treasury bond yield may fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.7%, and the 30 - year treasury bond yield may fluctuate between 1.85% - 1.95%. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on high - frequency economic data and liquidity dynamics [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold forms a "double - top" pattern and oscillates narrowly between 3200 - 3300 US dollars (750 - 770 yuan); silver fluctuates between 32 - 33.5 US dollars (8000 - 8350 yuan). The sold out - of - the - money gold call options can be held; Moody's downgrades the US credit rating, causing declines in the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets and a slight increase in precious metals [2]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The emotional release is sufficient, and the upward momentum may slow down. Consider 8 - 10, 6 - 10 positive spreads, and wait and see for unilateral operations [2]. Industrial - **Steel**: Industrial materials demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. Iron ore oscillates between 700 - 745. Coke and coking coal prices are in a downward phase. Suggest long - hot - rolled steel and short - coke or short - coking coal strategies [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Different products have different trends. For example, PX continues to have limited upward momentum; PTA oscillates at a high level between 4600 - 5000; short - fiber prices follow raw materials; ethanol's supply - demand structure improves; styrene has short - term oscillation and medium - term bearishness [2]. Agricultural - Different agricultural products have various market situations. For example, US soybeans oscillate, hogs' futures and spot prices oscillate weakly in the short term, and sugar has positive data from Brazil in late April [2]. Special and New Energy - **Special Commodities**: Glass market sentiment is pessimistic, and attention is paid to whether it can break through the 1000 - point level; rubber prices rise slightly due to storage news and can be lightly shorted at the upper end of the 14500 - 15500 range [2]. - **New Energy Commodities**: Lithium carbonate maintains a downward trend, with the main contract referring to 60,000 - 63,000 yuan; polysilicon futures oscillate with near - term strength and long - term weakness [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given documents. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents comprehensive data on EC futures contracts, including prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest. It also provides information on shipping capacity arrangements, recent European line quotes, and relevant news in the shipping industry, such as tariff adjustments and Middle - East situation updates [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Futures Contracts - Price and Change: Different EC futures contracts (EC2506 - EC2604) have varying closing prices and percentage changes. For example, EC2506 closed at 17722 with a 5.18% increase, while EC2604 closed at 1249.0 with a 0.59% increase [2]. - Volume and Open Interest: Trading volumes and open interest also differ among contracts. EC2506 had a trading volume of 71025 and an open interest of 28322, with a decrease of 5885 in open interest [2]. - Month - to - Month Spread: The spreads between different contract months show different trends. For instance, the spread between EC2506 - 2508 was - 615.7, with a day - on - day change of - 20.7 and a week - on - week change of - 184.9 [2]. Shipping Capacity Arrangements - In May and June 2025 (tentatively), the average weekly shipping capacity is 30.3 and 30.5 million TEU respectively. OA added two sailings cancellations in week 23, and PA added one in week 24 [2]. European Line Quotes - MSC's June opening quote is 2640 US dollars. Quotes in the second half of May decreased month - on - month, landing at around 1200 - 1250 points at the end of May. In June, except for MSK, other shipping companies announced price increases, with an average of 3000 US dollars (equivalent to 2050 points on the disk). MSK's Japan - Europe base cabin quotes before June were 1500 US dollars and it recently announced a price increase for the local line freight [3]. Shipping News - Tariff Adjustment: Starting from May 14 for 90 days, the US tariff rate on China will drop from 145% to 30%, and China's tariff rate on the US will drop from 125% to 10%. Additionally, a 24% reciprocal tariff will be exempted for 90 days. The US also adjusted the ad - valorem tariff rate for small parcels worth less than 800 US dollars from 120% to 54% and maintained a 100 - dollar specific tariff per item [4][5]. - Middle - East Situation: Hamas officials stated that reports of releasing Israeli detainees in exchange for a two - month cease - fire were false. As of May 19, cease - fire negotiations had made no progress, with differences between Israel and Hamas on the terms of releasing detainees [5]. Shipping Indexes - Multiple shipping indexes are presented, including SCFI, CCFI, NCFI, TCI, FBX11, WCI, and XSI - C. Their values, changes, and historical trends are shown. For example, the SCFI on May 16 was 1154 US dollars/TEU, with a 0.60% decrease from the previous period [2].

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: May 20, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The progress of Sino-US trade is better than expected, boosting market demand. The European route is starting to return to the mid-year peak season price increase logic. Airlines are raising freight rates for the end of May and June. The short - term market may continue to game on the price increase expectation, and attention should be paid to Maersk's later pricing for June quotes [8]. - From May 12th to 16th, the China Export Container Transport Market was supported by positive news of the "tariff war", and the freight rates of most long - haul routes increased. However, the future economic recovery prospects in Europe and the US - Europe trade negotiation prospects still face uncertainties [9]. - The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks reached a joint statement, which is an important step in resolving differences through dialogue and lays the foundation for further cooperation. Both sides agreed on multiple positive consensuses and measures such as tariff adjustments and the establishment of a consultation mechanism [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation**: Sino - US trade progress boosts market demand. Airlines are raising freight rates for the end of May and June. The price in late May has a small increase, and the price in early June has a significant increase of up to 100%, but the actual implementation needs to be observed. The short - term market may game on the price increase expectation, and attention should be paid to Maersk's later pricing for June quotes [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **Overall Market**: From May 12th to 16th, the China Export Container Transport Market was supported by positive news of the "tariff war", the transport demand recovered, and the comprehensive index increased [9]. - **European Route**: The ZEW economic sentiment index in the eurozone in May was better than expected, but the US - Europe trade negotiation prospects are unclear, and the freight rate decreased slightly [9]. - **Mediterranean Route**: The market situation is similar to the European route, and the spot market booking price decreased slightly [9]. - **North American Route**: After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks, the transport demand recovered significantly, the cabin supply was tight, and the spot market booking price increased significantly [9][10]. - **Sino - US Talks**: The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks reached a joint statement, with both sides agreeing on tariff adjustments and the establishment of a consultation mechanism [10]. 3.3 Data Overview 3.3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - **SCFIS**: The SCFIS for the European route decreased by 2.9% from May 12th to May 19th, and the SCFIS for the US - West route decreased by 0.6% [13]. 3.3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Market - No specific text summary information provided, but relevant charts such as the trends of the main and sub - main contracts of container shipping European route futures are presented [18]. 3.3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - No specific text summary information provided, but relevant charts such as global container capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates are presented [19][22].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the container shipping industry, particularly focusing on the impacts of U.S.-China trade relations and tariff policies on shipping demand and pricing dynamics [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Tariff Impact on Demand**: The average tariffs between the U.S. and China are currently between 48% and 55%, significantly pressuring Chinese manufacturing and potentially affecting corporate profitability and stock performance [1][3][4]. - **Shipping Rate Increases**: Container shipping companies have rapidly increased rates, with prices on the West Coast reaching $3,000 and the East Coast hitting $4,000. This reflects an intention to recover previous losses and enter a profit growth phase [1][5]. - **Inventory Replenishment Trends**: Although U.S. container imports are higher than last year, there has been a decline in freight volume between China and the U.S. from mid-April to mid-May, indicating that actual replenishment efforts are below expectations [1][8]. - **Supply Constraints**: The West Coast is experiencing a significant under-allocation of shipping capacity, which is expected to lead to a new round of price increases in June, potentially surpassing historical highs [1][10]. - **Future Demand Projections**: U.S. goods demand is expected to be stronger in 2025 compared to 2024, but there may be a cooling period post-tariff adjustments. Overall freight volume is anticipated to increase throughout the year [1][11][12]. Additional Important Insights - **Regional Pricing Dynamics**: The concentration of capacity allocation on South American routes is leading to price increases, while the overall impact on other routes remains limited [3][13]. - **Market Adjustments by Smaller Companies**: Smaller shipping companies in Southeast Asia are adjusting their routes to capitalize on profit opportunities, indicating a competitive market environment [14][16]. - **ETF and Stock Performance**: The expansion of ETF sizes and the inclusion of companies like COSCO Shipping Holdings in dividend indices are changing stock pricing models, leading to reduced volatility and more stable investment options [21][23][24]. - **Future Market Expectations**: The expectation is that broad-based ETFs will dominate, while industry-specific ETFs will have a lower share, influencing stock prices through index-based pricing mechanisms [25]. - **Impact of U.S. Inventory Replenishment**: The anticipated monthly replenishment in the U.S. is expected to exceed current shipping capacity, necessitating higher demands on shipping routes [26]. - **Potential Port Congestion**: There is a possibility of renewed congestion at U.S. ports, although not to the extent seen during the pandemic, which could still affect other shipping routes [27]. - **Regional Company Performance**: Companies like SeaLand International are benefiting from the supply contraction in Southeast Asia and stable demand, although challenges may arise in 2026 as U.S. inventory cycles decline [32][33]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the container shipping industry amidst evolving trade dynamics.