消费世界变幻莫测，它有趣的地方也在这里。一包小零食的走红，就能掀开时代趋势的一角。想吃 零食又有高热量负罪感的打工人，正将一个不起眼的食物捧成"印钞机"。 它叫"魔芋"，和名字一样魔幻的是，这一年，它的原料价格涨幅，超过了黄金，也超过了近期受热 议的羽毛球。 更惹眼的战绩是，它帮助三家上市公司的股价飙涨： 卫龙的辣条业务线老矣，靠"魔芋爽"翻身，驱动业绩增长，其股价在2025年1月不到7港元/股，5 月一度上涨到17港元/股，涨幅达142%。盐津铺子同样靠魔芋上位，拉动业绩，其股价在2025年 1月初还是64元/股，截止到5月7日，股价为89元/股，涨幅为39%。 上游企业吃到的红利似乎更大。魔芋深加工企业"一致魔芋"，公司规模不大，但股价增幅离谱。在 2024年9月初还是7元/股，到2025年4月一度上涨到59元/股，涨幅达742%，截止到5月7日，股 价为49元/股。 小小魔芋，怎么就突然"统治世界"了，冲着低热量吃魔芋零食，打工人有没有错付？ 01 有品类价格翻三倍 魔芋，又称蒟蒻（jǔ ruò），是一种喜阴植物，凭借其富含的葡甘露聚糖，即一种高膳食纤维、低 热量的天然成分，契合现代人饮食趋势，在饮食里 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company Mingming Henmang Group, a leading player in the snack retail sector, has submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking its entry into the public market [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company has experienced significant revenue growth, achieving revenues of 4.29 billion RMB in 2022, 10.30 billion RMB in 2023, and projected 39.34 billion RMB in 2024, representing an over eightfold increase in three years [6][7]. - Despite the impressive revenue figures, the company has maintained low profit margins, with gross profit margins of 7.5% in 2022, 7.5% in 2023, and 7.6% in 2024, which are lower than its competitor Wancheng Group's 10.76% during the same period [10][11]. Business Model - The company's business model is characterized by a low-cost, high-volume strategy, focusing on a wide range of products and a significant presence in lower-tier cities, with approximately 58% of its stores located in county towns and rural areas [4][8]. - The franchise model has become a mainstream choice in the snack retail industry, with 99.5% of the company's revenue coming from supplying products to its franchise stores [11][13]. Market Competition - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with both Mingming Henmang and its rival Wancheng Group aggressively expanding their store networks, leading to market saturation in certain areas [14][15]. - Both companies have implemented substantial franchise support policies to attract and retain franchisees, resulting in a significant increase in the number of franchise stores for Mingming Henmang from 994 in 2022 to 7,241 in 2024 [17]. Strategic Shifts - The company is shifting its strategy to focus on higher quality and differentiated products, moving away from solely competing on price [22][25]. - Mingming Henmang has initiated a self-branding strategy, launching its own product lines to improve profit margins and enhance its market image [24][26][28]. Future Outlook - The company plans to allocate 70% of the funds raised from its IPO for store expansion, indicating a continued focus on growth [18]. - Additionally, Mingming Henmang is exploring new retail formats, such as community discount supermarkets, to diversify its offerings and meet broader consumer needs [29][30].

Core Viewpoint - The rising popularity of konjac snacks, particularly "konjac shuang," has significantly impacted the stock prices of several listed companies, driven by consumer demand for low-calorie food options [1][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The price of konjac has surged dramatically, with raw material prices increasing more than gold, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [1][7]. - The price of white konjac rose from 6000 yuan/ton to 9500 yuan/ton, a 58% increase, indicating a strong demand in the market [3][7]. - The overall retail sales of konjac snacks in China exceeded 12 billion yuan in 2024, marking a growth of over 20% [21]. Group 2: Company Performance - Weitong's stock price increased from 7 HKD/share in January 2025 to 17 HKD/share by May, a rise of 142% [1]. - Yanjinpuzi's stock price rose from 64 yuan/share to 89 yuan/share, reflecting a 39% increase [1]. - Yizhi Konjac, a konjac processing company, saw its stock price soar from 7 yuan/share to 59 yuan/share, a staggering 742% increase [1]. Group 3: Consumer Trends - The demand for konjac snacks has been fueled by health-conscious consumers seeking low-calorie alternatives, with brands like Weitong successfully marketing "konjac shuang" [8][10]. - Other snack brands, such as Yanjinpuzi and Liangpinpuzi, have also capitalized on the konjac trend, with significant revenue growth attributed to konjac products [10][14]. - The tea beverage industry has adopted konjac as an ingredient, further driving its popularity [14]. Group 4: Industry Challenges - The konjac planting area has shrunk by 23% over the past three years, compounded by a 15% reduction in yield due to drought, leading to raw material shortages [7][22]. - The industry faces challenges related to quality control and consumer perception, as some products may not meet the expected taste and quality standards due to cost-cutting measures [22][24]. - There is a concern about the "bad money driving out good," where lower-quality products could harm the overall market perception of konjac snacks [22][24].

Core Insights - The snack industry is rapidly transitioning towards health-oriented and premium products, with flavored fish snacks emerging as a key indicator of consumer upgrade and health food trends [1] - Jinzhai Food has successfully navigated the challenges of the low-end snack market by increasing R&D investment and leveraging digital technology, establishing itself as a leader in the fish snack segment [1][2] Group 1: R&D Investment and Innovation - Jinzhai Food emphasizes R&D investment to drive technological innovation, aiming to break free from the low-end price competition that plagues the snack industry [2] - The company has established multiple research platforms, including a postdoctoral innovation practice base and a health snack engineering technology research center, to develop healthy snack products with high-quality protein and reduced additives [2][3] - Jinzhai Food has over 70 industry-leading technologies and has received multiple awards from the China Food Industry Association from 2020 to 2024 [3] Group 2: Digital Technology and Supply Chain - The application of digital technology has been crucial for Jinzhai Food in restructuring its supply chain and enhancing product value [4] - The company has implemented a comprehensive information system covering all processes from raw material procurement to end delivery, achieving industry-leading levels of quality data information [5] - Digital systems are utilized in various products, ensuring strict quality control and enhancing nutritional retention during production [5] Group 3: Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns - Jinzhai Food reported a revenue of 2.412 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.79%, and a net profit of 291 million yuan, up 39.01% [6] - The company has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, with a proposed cash dividend of 3 yuan per 10 shares, amounting to 1.79 billion yuan for the year, which is 61% of the net profit [6][7] - Since its IPO, Jinzhai Food has distributed over 590 million yuan in dividends, significantly exceeding its initial fundraising of 160 million yuan [6]

• 东南亚零食市场潜力巨大，规模约 1,500 亿元，五大核心国家占比 92%，越南增速最快。中国零食出海正值品类升级和渠道变革窗口期，有 望分享渗透率和市占率双重提升，长期来看，中国零食在东南亚单品牌份 额可达 3%到 5%，合计份额可达 15%到 20%，对应增量市场超过 200 亿元。 • 越南、马来西亚和印尼是首选目标市场，这些国家高增长且竞争格局未定， 风味零食是显著机会。泰国均价过高，存在抢占市场格局的机会；菲律宾 则可通过创新破局。中国品牌供应链完善，产品创新策略灵活，通过差异 化和性价比优势击中传统品牌痛点。 • 企业初期应内生搭建品牌、渠道及产能，同时设置专业组织进行本土化运 营。核心市场锁定越南、马来西亚、印尼及泰国。产品端主打优势品类并 进行本土化口味调整；渠道端设立海外组织并开辟分销网络；产能端同步 进行供应链出海；品牌端灵活借力新媒体新渠道影响海外用户。 • 东南亚市场本土品牌强势但集中度偏低，CR5 仅 30.6%，CR10 仅 44.4%。第一梯队为玛氏、亿滋、联合利华等国际巨头，份额 5%-8%； 第二梯队为雀巢、百事等，份额 1%-3%。中国企业可利用风味零食产品 的创新优势 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.304 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 28.89%, and a net profit of 640 million yuan, up 26.53% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.537 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.69%, with a net profit of 178 million yuan, an increase of 11.64% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Product Performance - The company experienced rapid growth in konjac products, with significant revenue contributions from various snack categories in 2024, including spicy snacks (1.962 billion yuan, +32.36%), baked potato snacks (1.158 billion yuan, +17.31%), and egg snacks (580 million yuan, +81.87%) [1] - The company launched a brand strategy in 2024, promoting "Big Demon King" and "Egg Emperor," which quickly gained popularity, with a specific product breaking the record for the fastest snack to reach 100 million yuan in sales [1] Group 2: Channel Performance - Direct sales in supermarkets saw a decline of 43.72% to 188 million yuan, while distribution and e-commerce channels grew by 34.01% and 39.95%, respectively, indicating a shift in the company's channel strategy [2] - The company is expanding its presence in Southeast Asia with its konjac products under the brand "Mowon," achieving breakthroughs in the Thai market and planning to extend globally [2] Group 3: Financial Metrics - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 30.69%, a decrease of 2.85 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to changes in channel structure with increased sales through e-commerce and bulk snack channels [3] - The company maintained good expense control, with selling and administrative expense ratios of 12.5% and 4.13% for 2024, and 11.24% and 3.44% for Q1 2025, respectively [3] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The company anticipates continued high growth in its core categories, including konjac and quail eggs, and is adjusting profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 847 million, 1.046 billion, and 1.271 billion yuan, respectively [4] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 3.1, 3.83, and 4.66 yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 28, 23, and 19 times, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [4]

证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 05 月 06 日 [Table_Title] 25Q1 收入稳健增长，关注渠道扩张 [Table_Title2] 劲仔食品(003000) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 003000 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 15.45/10.14 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 57.85 | | 最新收盘价： | 12.83 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 39.02 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 304.14 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 成本端来看，公司 25Q1 毛利率为 29.91%，同比-0.11pct，基本维持稳定。费用端来看，公司 25Q1 销 售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为 13.36%/4.05%/1.98%/-0.37%，分别同比+0.23/+0.16/+0.15/+1.12pct， 其中销售费用率同比微增，我们预计主因年内费用投放节奏影响，春节加大投放所致， ...

泛餐饮连锁业态：单店营收仍有缺口，但有企稳的趋势 1)收入端：必选属性更强的巴比食品、锅圈表现好于卤味企业。单店营收方面，大部分公司相比2020、 2021年仍有缺口，其中锅圈的单店营收2024年同比转正。2)利润端：2024年巴比食品和紫燕食品归母净 利率实现同比提升，拆解下来主要来自费用端的缩减。绝味食品、煌上煌由于费用端支出较多，利润端 未能释放成本红利。 智通财经APP获悉，东吴证券发布研报称，2025Q1以来消费品赛道市场关注度和估值水位都有提升， 该行维持看好内需消费的观点。1)零食是相对不受宏观周期影响的行业，行业也具备结构性成长机会， 后续从产业逻辑和企业的生命周期来看，该行推荐三类公司：一是以门店为基础的万辰集团，万家门店 之后还有业态延伸、利润率提升的逻辑。二是有能力成为全品类、全渠道的平台型公司。三是在品类、 渠道、内部管理等方面具备边际改善的公司。2)速冻和连锁业态都属于典型的顺周期板块，和下游餐饮 业态的修复关联度较高，基本面上该行认为很多公司已经有触底企稳的迹象，其次板块整体估值偏低 位，有上修空间。 东吴证券主要观点如下： 休闲零食：行业具备结构性成长机会，机遇诸多 行业的成长性 ...

从万辰集团10倍神话看量贩零食赛道的资本迷局。 合并与上市：一场资本驱动的"零食帝国"崛起 2023年11月，零食很忙与赵一鸣零食的合并，标志着中国量贩零食行业进入"双寡头"时代。合并后的鸣鸣很忙集团（以下简称"鸣鸣"）门店总数超1.4万 家，2024年GMV达555亿元，成为行业绝对龙头。这一动作不仅重塑了行业格局，更被视为冲刺港股IPO的关键一步——2025年5月，鸣鸣正式递交招股 书，计划募资用于门店扩张与供应链升级。 1. 万辰集团的"神话"对照： A股上市公司万辰集团（300972.SZ）是鸣鸣的"前车之鉴"。这家原本以食用菌为主业的企业，2022年转型量贩零食后，股价最高涨幅达10倍，市值突破 170亿元。其核心逻辑是通过整合"好想来"等品牌，以"低价+加盟"模式快速扩张，2024年量贩零食业务营收预计突破300亿元，净利润2.4亿-3亿元。万辰 的案例证明，资本对规模故事的狂热足以掩盖低毛利风险。 2. 鸣鸣的上市底气： 规模碾压：截至2024年底，鸣鸣门店数1.4万家，远超万辰的4726家； 下沉市场统治力：58%门店位于县城及乡镇，覆盖28个省份，形成密集网络； 供应链效率：存货周转天数仅1 ...

结构分化，重视成长 [Table_Industry] 食品饮料 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——食品饮料板块 2024 年报&2025 一季报总结 | [table_Authors] 訾猛(分析师) | 颜慧菁(分析师) | 李美仪(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 S0880513120002 | S0880525040022 | S0880524080002 | 本报告导读： 食品饮料板块 2024 年收入、净利润同比+2%、+4%，25Q1 收入、净利润同比+1%、 +0.2%，整体降速。其中白酒板块低增、龙头突出，大众品表现分化、结构性增长。 投资要点： 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 票 研 究 行 业 专 题 研 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.05.05 [Table_Summary] 投资建议：1）白酒：发展更加理性，注重高质量发展，头部企业增 长持续性和确定性相对较强，建议增持动销较好标的山西汾酒、今 ...