021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 29 日 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | ...

Core Points - The U.S. has imposed severe sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft, including secondary sanctions [1][10] - Lukoil announced plans to sell overseas assets to cope with the challenges posed by the sanctions [1][11] - Despite Putin's threats involving nuclear capabilities, the economic difficulties faced by Russia are becoming increasingly apparent [1][9] Sanctions Impact - The sanctions directly target Lukoil and Rosneft, which account for half of Russia's oil exports and provide over 40% of the country's oil and gas revenue [9][10] - Secondary sanctions will affect any entities engaging in transactions with these companies or their subsidiaries [10] - Major clients of Russian oil, including companies in China and India, have ceased imports of Russian oil following the sanctions [10] Lukoil's Response - Lukoil has begun the process of selling its international assets, including a 75% stake in the West Qurna-2 oil field in Iraq, which has a production capacity exceeding 480,000 barrels per day [11][13] - The company is also reviewing potential buyers' offers while maintaining a commitment to "stable operations" [14] - The sale of assets is expected to occur under the gradual approval of the U.S. Treasury [11] Political Dynamics - Putin's calm demeanor in public contrasts with his underlying anxiety regarding the economic impact of the sanctions [3][4] - Trump's administration remains firm, with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin dismissing Russian claims as mere "word games" [6][10] - Ukrainian President Zelensky has called for further sanctions against the entire Russian oil industry, not just the two companies [16]

29日，沪指盘中发力上扬，重返4000点上方；创业板指涨超1%，场内超3200股飘绿。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 盘面上看，银行、酿酒、半导体等板块走低，券商、保险、有色、煤炭、石油等板块拉升，海南自贸、 锂矿、量子科技、固态电池概念等活跃。 东莞证券表示，当前市场或有望延续偏强运行态势。一方面，二十届四中全会公报明确了"十五五"时期 经济社会发展的主要目标，新一轮政策部署预计将有效提振市场信心。另一方面，美联储在年内有望继 续实施降息操作，或进一步推动市场风险偏好回升。综合来看，多重积极因素有望对短期市场表现形成 支撑。中期来看，上市公司盈利状况预计将逐步改善，为市场提供额外上行动力。尽管当前企业盈利仍 处于探底企稳阶段，经济修复节奏相对温和，但部分领域已呈现边际改善迹象。此外，未来我国出口预 计仍将保持一定韧性，而内需回暖的持续性可能超出市场预期。整体而言，在政策支持逐步显效的背景 下，预计四季度A股盈利将实现小幅修复，进而对市场形成正向驱动。 截至午间收盘，沪指涨0.37%报4002.83点，深证成指涨0.9%，创业板指涨1.35%，沪深北三市合计成交 14342亿元。 ...

报告日期：2025 年 10 月 29 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：强化逆周期和跨周期调节 中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议发布。其中指出， 提升宏观经济治理效能。强化国家发展规划战略导向作用，加强财政、货币政策 协同，发挥好产业、价格、就业、消费、投资、贸易、区域、环保、监管等政策 作用，促进形成更多由内需主导、消费拉动、内生增长的经济发展模式。强化逆 周期和跨周期调节，实施更加积极的宏观政策，持续稳增长、稳就业、稳预期。 增强宏观政策取向一致性，强化政策实施效果评价，健全预期管理机制，优化高 质量发展综合绩效考核。国内期货夜盘收盘涨跌不一。棕榈油跌超 2%，豆油跌超 1%，PTA、短纤等小幅下跌；玻璃、菜籽粕等涨超 1%，白糖、豆二等小幅上涨。 重点品种：贵金属、原油、玻璃 贵金属：金银大幅回落，昨夜小幅反弹。以色列总理办公室突然发布声明称，在 哈马斯对加沙地带的以军部队开火后，以总理内塔尼亚胡当天指示以军对加沙地 带实施强力打击。以俄乌为代表的地缘政治风险有所降温。最新一轮中美会谈就 解决各自关切的安排达成基本共识，双方同意进一步确定具体细节，并履行各自 国内批准程序。美联 ...

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is experiencing increasing signs of oversupply, leading to a decline in oil prices despite previous strong upward momentum caused by U.S. sanctions on Russian oil giants [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The oil market is expected to remain in a state of oversupply for an extended period due to continuous supply growth and limited demand increase, resulting in significant downward pressure on oil prices in the medium to long term [2][4]. - U.S. oil production has been sluggish this year, primarily due to capital constraints limiting drilling activities, while low oil prices have restricted upstream investments in shale oil [2][4]. - Multiple institutions have lowered their forecasts for global oil demand growth this year, with expected increases being lower than last year [2][4]. Market Reactions and Speculation - Speculative positions have been significantly reduced as investors reposition themselves in anticipation of an impending supply surplus, reinforcing downward price pressure [1][3]. - The recent record high in global seaborne crude oil indicates a persistent rise in oversupply [1]. OPEC's Role and Market Signals - OPEC's upcoming meeting may agree to increase production, which could further signal a controlled supply approach rather than relying solely on resource reserves [2][3]. - The ability of OPEC and other oil-producing countries to adjust production policies reflects their soft power in the market, emphasizing the importance of managing expectations and supply signals [3][4]. Long-term Trends and Soft Power Theory - The dynamics of the oil market have shifted from traditional resource control to a focus on rule reconstruction, expectation management, and value innovation, as outlined in Deng Zhenghong's soft power theory [3][4]. - The competition in the oil market is expected to deepen, focusing on technological standards, financial rule reconstruction, and adaptive capabilities [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Russia's sanctions are beneficial for OPEC to continue increasing production. With the current geopolitical situation and production - increase policy, it is expected that the production quota increase will continue, and OPEC's actual supply depends on Saudi Arabia's production willingness [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - On a certain day, the December - delivered light crude oil futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped by $1.16 to $60.15 per barrel, a decline of 1.89%; the December - delivered Brent crude oil futures price in London fell by $1.22 to $64.40 per barrel, a decline of 1.86%. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 1.78% at 458 yuan per barrel [1]. - Saudi Aramco's CEO Amin Nasser said that global crude oil demand was strong even before sanctions on Russian oil companies. He predicted an oil demand growth of 1.1 - 1.4 million barrels per day next year, and oil and gas will remain important in the global energy structure in the coming decades [1]. - On October 28, oil prices declined for the third consecutive day as OPEC +'s production - increase plan outweighed the positive impact of trade optimism. OPEC + is likely to slightly increase production again in December. Sanctions on Russian oil companies previously boosted oil prices, and investors are now questioning their effectiveness. The IEA chief believes the impact of sanctions on oil prices is limited due to large surplus production capacity [1]. - The Iraqi oil minister stated that Iraq's daily oil export volume is 3.6 million barrels, with the Kurdistan region exporting about 195,000 barrels per day. Iraq's crude oil production capacity is 5.5 million barrels per day, but it adheres to OPEC's quota of 4.4 million barrels per day [1]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky said that Ukraine will expand its strikes on Russian refineries [1]. Investment Logic - After Russia is sanctioned, it is conducive to OPEC's continuous production increase. Saudi Crown Prince will visit the US in mid - November. Based on the current geopolitical situation and production - increase policy, the production quota increase is expected to continue, and OPEC's actual supply depends on Saudi Arabia's production willingness [2]. Strategy - Oil prices will fluctuate within a short - term range and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3]. Risks - Downward risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Russian oil and macro black - swan events [3]. - Upward risks include the US tightening sanctions on Russian oil, breakthroughs in China - US trade negotiations, and large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle - East conflicts [3].

Core Insights - Japan's commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 377,644 thousand liters to 10,027,202 thousand liters as of the week ending October 25 [1] - Gasoline inventory in Japan fell by 16,721 thousand liters to 1,603,954 thousand liters compared to the previous week [1] - Kerosene inventory dropped by 91,715 thousand liters to 2,742,806 thousand liters from the prior week [1] - The average operating rate of Japanese refineries increased to 91.2%, up from 86.2% the previous week [1]

希伦加强调，纳石油产业正在从成功勘探迈向初期生产。近年来，纳石油勘探取得重大发现，有望 于2029年至2030年间实现石油商业化生产。纳不仅要成为石油生产国，更要创造一个以伙伴关系和共享 繁荣为核心的可持续能源未来。纳政府正致力于引入资本、技术与知识，确保资源开发可持续，为非洲 能源转型注入新的活力。 （原标题：纳米比亚崛起为非洲能源新星） 据纳《密友报》报道，在2025年非洲能源周（AEW）上，纳总统府石油部门负责人、特别顾问科 内利亚·希伦加表示，纳正迎来步入全球能源舞台的机遇，有望成为非洲石油产业的重要枢纽。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to have no trend - based market, maintain a cautious stance [6][7] - **Stock Index Futures**: Low risk of significant decline, consider taking long positions opportunistically [9][10] - **Precious Metals**: Pricing is relatively full, take profit on previous long positions and then wait and see [11][12] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The mid - term weakness of rebar prices is hard to change, and hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Look for short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13][14] - **Iron Ore**: The short - term supply - demand pattern supports prices, but it may weaken in the medium term. Look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [16] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Consider buying during pullbacks [18][19] - **Ferroalloys**: May continue to have oversupply in the short term. Consider long positions at low levels when the spot falls into the loss range again after a decline [21][22] - **Crude Oil**: Temporarily wait and see [24][25] - **Fuel Oil**: Look for long - buying opportunities [26][27] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillate [28][29] - **Natural Rubber**: Look for long - buying opportunities [30][31] - **PVC**: Pay attention to changes on the supply side [32][35] - **Urea**: Limited downside space [36][37] - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: May have an oscillatory adjustment in the short term, with support at the bottom. Consider participating at low levels [38][39] - **PTA**: May oscillate in the short term. Be cautiously bullish and pay attention to oil price changes [40] - **Ethylene Glycol**: May oscillate in the short term. Participate within a range and pay attention to port inventory and import changes [41][42] - **Short - Fiber**: May oscillate following costs. Control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [43] - **Bottle Chips**: Expected to oscillate following the cost side. Control risks [44][45] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [46] - **Copper**: Look for long - buying opportunities [47][48] - **Tin**: May oscillate with an upward bias [49] - **Nickel**: Expected to oscillate [51] - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Consider long positions for soybean meal after adjustment; temporarily wait and see for soybean oil [54][55] - **Palm Oil**: Temporarily wait and see [56][58] - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Temporarily wait and see for rapeseed oil [59][60] - **Cotton**: Limited upside space for cotton prices [61][62] - **Sugar**: There is support at the bottom [64][67] - **Apples**: Expected to run strongly [69][71] - **Pigs**: Take profit on short positions in the short term and then wait and see. Wait for opportunities to sell short on rebounds [72][73] - **Eggs**: Hold short positions and look for opportunities to add short positions on rebounds [74][75] - **Corn and Starch**: It is advisable to wait and see for corn; corn starch may follow the corn market [76][77] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, treasury futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 475.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 315.8 billion yuan. ADP will release weekly US employment data. The current macro - data is stable, but the recovery momentum needs strengthening. The yield is relatively low, and the market risk preference has increased. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market [5][6] Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is low. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and the economy has sufficient resilience. Market sentiment has warmed up, and incremental funds have entered the market. The uncertainty in Sino - US economic and trade relations has eased, and the risk of significant decline is low [8][9] Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The US housing price index increased. The complex global trade and financial environment, the trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", and potential Fed rate cuts are beneficial to precious metals. However, the recent increase has been large, and the pricing is full [11] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. In the medium term, prices are dominated by industry supply - demand logic. The real - estate industry's downward trend remains unchanged, and rebar demand is declining year - on - year. Although it is the traditional peak demand season, the inventory pressure is obvious. The basic logic of hot - rolled coils is similar to that of rebar [13][14] Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures rebounded significantly. The national hot - metal daily output remains at around 2.4 million tons, supporting prices. Although the import and domestic production of iron ore have increased quarter - on - quarter since the second quarter, the year - on - year decline in the first 9 months remains unchanged. The port inventory is lower than last year [16] Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined slightly. Coking coal supply is slightly tight due to safety inspections, and demand is okay. The second - round increase in coke procurement prices is gradually being implemented. Coking profits are stable, and demand remains high [18] Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese - silicon futures closed down, and silicon - iron futures closed up. The manganese - ore shipment from Gabon decreased, and the Australian ore supply increased. The port manganese - ore inventory increased slightly, but the level is still low. The cost of ferroalloys has increased, and the supply is in short - term surplus [21] Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward but remained above the 5 - day moving average. The US government shutdown suspended the CFTC report. The number of US oil and gas rigs increased for the second consecutive week. India's Reliance Industries will comply with sanctions on Russia. The increase in US crude - oil production is difficult, and sanctions on Russia are beneficial to oil prices [23][24] Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward following crude oil. The sanctions on oil have increased market sentiment. The Asian high - sulfur and ultra - low - sulfur fuel - oil spreads are strong, and the Singapore fuel - oil supply is tight. Sanctions on Russia are beneficial to fuel - oil prices [26] Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber futures closed down. The short - and medium - term maintenance is expected to increase, which may drive the market to stop falling and rebound. The raw - material side is bearish, and the private - enterprise supply is expected to increase. The short - term market is weak, and it will oscillate [28] Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural - rubber futures showed mixed performance. The market should focus on the weather in production areas and demand expectations. The new - rubber production is slow due to weather disturbances, and the raw - material purchase price has increased. The tire - enterprise capacity utilization has increased slightly, and the inventory has decreased significantly [30] PVC - Last trading day, PVC futures closed down. The oversupply situation continues, but the downward space is limited. After the holiday, focus on exports and supply reduction. The PVC production capacity utilization has decreased, and the demand from downstream industries has increased. The cost - profit situation is complex [32][33] Urea - Last trading day, urea futures closed down. In the short term, pay attention to export - policy changes and the seasonal recovery of agricultural demand. The supply pressure has eased, and the demand from the agricultural market has increased. The cost is stable, and the inventory is lower than expected [36] Para - Xylene (PX) - Last trading day, PX futures rose. The PXN spread is relatively strong, and the supply has slightly decreased. The cost - side crude oil has recovered. In the short term, PX may oscillate and adjust, with support at the bottom [38][39] PTA - Last trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply has changed, and the demand from the polyester industry is stable. The processing fee has been significantly under pressure, and the inventory is low. The cost - side crude oil has recovered. In the short term, it may oscillate [40] Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol futures closed down. The overall operating load has increased, and the port inventory has decreased. The downstream polyester industry's operating rate is stable, but the terminal demand support is limited. In the short term, it may oscillate [41][42] Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The device load has decreased, and the demand has improved. The processing fee is around 1,125 yuan/ton. In the short term, it may oscillate following costs [43] Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. The processing fee has decreased to around 450 yuan/ton. The factory load has increased, and the export growth has slowed down. It is expected to oscillate following the cost side [44][45] Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium - carbonate futures rose. The production is at a high level, and the supply - side profit is sufficient. The demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved, and the social inventory is decreasing [46] Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper futures fell significantly. The spot market was mediocre, and the downstream consumption sentiment was low. The Indonesian copper mine has not resumed production, which supports copper prices. There are different views on the Sino - US APEC meeting [47] Tin - Last trading day, tin futures rose. The mining end is tight, the resumption of production in Wa State is slow, and the domestic processing fee is low. The demand shows certain resilience. The refined - tin inventory is decreasing, and the price may oscillate upward [49] Nickel - Last trading day, nickel futures closed down. The change in Indonesia's RKAB approval policy has raised supply concerns. The mining - end price has weakened, and the domestic port inventory is increasing. The high - grade nickel ore is still tight. The stainless - steel consumption is weak, and the refined - nickel market is in surplus [51] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean - meal futures rose, and soybean - oil futures fell. Sino - US trade frictions may ease. The soybean - crushing volume of oil mills has recovered to a high level. The soybean - meal inventory has decreased, and the soybean - oil inventory pressure is still large. The consumption of soybean oil may be suppressed, and the demand for soybean meal is expected to grow moderately [53][54] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm - oil futures fell for the third consecutive day. Indonesia's palm - oil production is expected to increase by 10% in 2025. The domestic palm - oil import has decreased, and the inventory is at a medium level in the past 7 years [56] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. In China, the import of rapeseed and rapeseed meal decreased in September, while the import of rapeseed oil increased. The inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil is at different levels in the past 7 years [59] Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated. The market has high expectations for Sino - US negotiations. The export of textile and clothing is relatively stable. The domestic cotton production is expected to be high this year, and the cotton price is under pressure [61][62] Sugar - Last trading day, Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded significantly, while overseas sugar futures fell to a four - year low. Brazil's sugar production has slightly exceeded expectations, and the global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus. The domestic northern region has started sugar production, and the southern region will start in December [64][66] Apples - Last trading day, domestic apple futures rose significantly due to quality concerns. The opening price this year is higher than last year. The late - maturing apple market is active, but the quality is poor [69][70] Pigs - Yesterday, the national average pig price rose. At the end of the month, the northern market is strengthening, and the southern market is following. The supply from group farms has decreased slightly, and the retail - farmer reluctance to sell remains. The consumption demand has improved. In the second half of the month, the supply from group farms is expected to increase [72] Eggs - Last trading day, the average egg price in the main production and sales areas remained unchanged. The cost per catty has increased slightly, and the farming profit is negative. The number of laying hens in stock is at a high level in the past 9 years. In October, the supply is expected to increase, and the consumption may be lower than expected [74] Corn and Starch - Last trading day, corn futures rose, and corn - starch futures fell. The new - season corn is accelerating to ports, and the inventory is expected to increase. The demand for corn is growing slightly, but the price is under pressure due to the harvest. Corn starch has weak supply and demand, and the inventory is at a high level [76][77]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the varieties in the energy and chemical industry are rated as "oscillating", including PX, PTA, short - fiber, methanol, urea, LLDPE, PP, PL, PVC, and caustic soda. Some are rated as "oscillating weakly", such as crude oil, pure benzene, and styrene. Others are rated as "oscillating downward", like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil [9][17][18] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical support for crude oil shows signs of weakening. If there is no further reduction in supply, oil prices will return to a weak supply - demand situation. The chemical sector is waiting for more guidance. The bullish power of styrene is gradually brewing, but it still faces pressure from high inventory and new installations. The strong pattern of PTA may change after the meeting of the Price Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. Overall, the energy and chemical industry is expected to oscillate and consolidate in the short term, waiting for the geopolitical situation to calm down [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical risks still exist. - **Main Logic**: Concerns about Russian oil supply have eased, and the spot market for Middle Eastern crude oil has weakened. The marginal geopolitical risk has decreased. The API data shows a decline in US crude oil inventories last week, but the overseas supply pressure still persists. If geopolitical concerns continue to ease, oil prices will return to a weak state [9] Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: As crude oil prices fall, asphalt may be pressured to decline. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in November, Saudi Arabia has lowered the export premium to Asia, and the Israel - Palestine conflict has ended. After the sharp rise in oil prices, the market is evaluating the situation, and oil prices have fallen, which may put pressure on asphalt futures prices. The asphalt - fuel oil spread is expected to continue to decline, and the over - valuation premium of asphalt is starting to fall [9][10] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: As crude oil prices fall, fuel oil may be pressured to decline. - **Main Logic**: After the rise in oil prices, the market is evaluating the situation, and oil prices have fallen, driving fuel oil prices down. Although the Israel - Palestine conflict has ended, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, and the demand for fuel oil is still weak [10] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates and rises following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the oscillation of crude oil. It is affected by factors such as sanctions on Russia, and its fundamentals face challenges such as a decline in shipping demand and substitution by green energy [12] Methanol - **Viewpoint**: Overseas disturbances will increase after November, and methanol is viewed with oscillation. - **Main Logic**: On October 28, the methanol futures price oscillated and declined. The high port inventory still has a suppressing effect in the short term, but considering the high probability of Iranian disturbances approaching winter, methanol still has value for low - buying [29] Urea - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment has ebbed, and it is viewed with continuous pressure. - **Main Logic**: On October 28, the market sentiment weakened, and the spot downstream transactions were cautious. Urea returned to the fundamental situation and is expected to oscillate and consolidate [30] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Viewpoint**: Driven by the sentiment of related varieties, but the fundamentals are under pressure and the elasticity is limited. - **Main Logic**: The cost side oscillates without a clear direction. The supply of coal - based MEG is high, and the supply pressure in November is still large, leading to a significant inventory build - up from November to December [20] PX - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment fermentation and cost game, pay attention to the conference resolution. - **Main Logic**: The concern about Russian oil supply has eased, and the medium - and long - term oil prices still face surplus pressure, causing the cost support to be insufficient in the short term. The PX supply - demand pattern has slightly improved, and the bottom support of PXN has increased. The price is expected to be sorted out within the range in the short term [13][14] PTA - **Viewpoint**: The cost has fallen and failed to resonate with the sentiment. Pay attention to the subsequent situation of the conference. - **Main Logic**: The cost support is insufficient in the short term due to the easing of concerns about Russian oil supply. The downstream production and sales have turned cold. The PTA price is expected to oscillate under the game between cost and the fermentation of the conference news [14][16] Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the upstream sentiment fermentation, and there is no pressure on its own inventory. - **Main Logic**: After the slowdown in price increase, the production and sales of polyester short - fiber have become dull. The downstream demand is weak, and the cost support is disturbed. The price is expected to be sorted out within the range in the short term [24][25] Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: The cost support has weakened, pay attention to the conference results. - **Main Logic**: The market is digesting the impact of anti - involution on upstream polyester raw materials. The oil price has turned down again, and the polyester bottle - chip price is expected to oscillate following the cost in the short term [26] Propylene and PP - **Viewpoint**: The spread between propylene and PP continues to fluctuate in the range of 500 - 550, and PL oscillates. PP is viewed within a range. - **Main Logic**: The oil price oscillates, and the supply - side situation of Russian oil is difficult to verify. The fundamentals of PP support are limited, and the inventory is at a high level. The PL price oscillates, and the spread between PP and PL fluctuates around 500 [33][34] Plastic (LLDPE) - **Viewpoint**: The cost - side support confronts the supply - demand pressure, and plastic is viewed within a range. - **Main Logic**: The oil price rebounds, and the supply - side situation of Russian oil is difficult to verify. The plastic's own fundamentals support is limited, and the profit support is also limited. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [32] Styrene - **Viewpoint**: There is a lack of positive driving factors, and styrene oscillates weakly. - **Main Logic**: Styrene has followed the decline in oil prices and then rebounded, but the rebound is weak. It is affected by factors such as new installations and weak downstream follow - up [18][19] PVC - **Viewpoint**: It has low valuation and weak expectations, and PVC oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The macro - level sentiment has improved, but the PVC fundamentals are under pressure. The production will increase, the downstream demand is only released at low prices, and the export is affected by anti - dumping [36] Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot price stabilizes, and the futures price oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The macro - level sentiment has improved, but the upstream production is high. The demand elasticity of caustic soda is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [37] 4. Summary of Index Data - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index was 2242.59, down 0.90%; the commodity 20 index was 2532.38, down 1.19%; the industrial products index was 2238.86, down 0.64% [285] - **Energy Index**: On October 28, 2025, the energy index was 1168.84, with a daily decline of 0.85%, a 5 - day increase of 3.52%, a 1 - month decline of 2.56%, and a year - to - date decline of 4.81% [287]