Core Insights - The national production material market prices remained stable from December 15 to 21, showing little change compared to the previous week [1] Group 1: Fuel Prices - Wholesale prices for refined oil experienced slight declines, with 0 diesel, 95 gasoline, and 92 gasoline decreasing by 0.6%, 0.2%, and 0.1% respectively [2] Group 2: Coal Prices - Coal prices saw minor reductions, with coking coal, anthracite, and thermal coal priced at 1055 yuan, 1159 yuan, and 781 yuan per ton, reflecting decreases of 0.6%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively [2] Group 3: Non-Ferrous Metals - Prices for non-ferrous metals predominantly declined, with aluminum and copper decreasing by 0.4% and 0.1%, while zinc saw a slight increase of 0.1% [3] Group 4: Fertilizer and Steel Prices - Fertilizer prices showed slight fluctuations, with compound fertilizer increasing by 0.2% and urea decreasing by 0.1% [4] - Steel prices remained largely unchanged, with rebar, high-speed wire, and hot-rolled strip priced at 3358 yuan, 3547 yuan, and 3508 yuan per ton, all increasing by 0.1%, while ordinary plates, welded pipes, and channel steel decreased by 0.1% [4] Group 5: Basic Chemical Raw Materials - Basic chemical raw material prices experienced minor fluctuations, with sulfuric acid and methanol increasing by 2.9% and 0.1%, while polypropylene and soda ash decreased by 1.2% and 0.5% respectively [4] Group 6: Rubber Prices - Rubber prices saw slight increases, with natural rubber and synthetic rubber rising by 0.5% and 0.1% respectively [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The upstream prices are showing a differentiated trend, with nickel prices rising, egg prices falling, and oil and liquefied natural gas prices dropping. The mid - stream has a low - season for chemical product production, increased coal consumption in power plants, and low asphalt construction rates. The downstream real - estate market is warming up, while domestic flight frequencies are decreasing [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Upstream - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Nickel prices have rebounded significantly, with the price on December 25th at 127,383.3 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 5.79% [2][37]. - **Agriculture**: Egg prices declined on the previous day, with the spot price on December 25th at 6.3 yuan/kg, a year - on - year decrease of 5.02% [2][37]. - **Energy**: Crude oil prices have corrected, and liquefied natural gas prices have continued to decline. The spot price of WTI crude oil on December 25th was 58.4 dollars/barrel, a year - on - year increase of 4.55%, and the spot price of liquefied natural gas was 3,356 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 7.34% [2][37]. Mid - stream - **Chemical Industry**: It is the off - season for chemical product production [3]. - **Energy**: Coal consumption in power plants has increased [3]. - **Infrastructure**: Asphalt construction rates are at a low level [3]. Downstream - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities have continued to pick up [3]. - **Services**: The number of domestic flights has decreased [3]. Industry Events - **Production Industry**: On the afternoon of December 25th, four leading silicon wafer companies jointly raised their prices significantly, with an average increase of 12%. The average price increase of various silicon wafer models this week is between 3.3% - 9.8%, mainly due to the large increase in upstream silicon material prices. The National Tobacco Monopoly Administration is soliciting opinions on promoting the supply - demand balance of the e - cigarette market [1]. - **Service Industry**: The People's Bank of China and seven other departments have issued a document to support the construction of the New Western Land - Sea Corridor, including exploring digital financial international cooperation and promoting cross - border payments using central bank digital currencies [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Carbonate Lithium, BR Rubber [1] - Bearish: Palm Oil, Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Gold, Platinum, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferroalloy, Glass, Coke, Coking Coal, Cotton, Sugar, Piglets, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Bitumen, MEG, Short - Fiber, Styrene, Propylene, Butadiene, Ethylene, Propylene Oxide, Chlor - Alkali, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe [1][2] Core Views - The stock index is expected to remain strong in the short - term after breaking through the previous shock range, while the bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy but face interest - rate risks in the short - term [1]. - Metal prices are mainly affected by macro - sentiment, industrial fundamentals, and policy factors. For example, nickel and stainless - steel prices are influenced by Indonesian policies, and tin prices are affected by industry initiatives and geopolitical situations [1]. - In the energy and chemical sector, factors such as OPEC+ policies, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes affect prices. For instance, BR rubber is supported by cost and market sentiment, and PTA benefits from strong PX prices and high polyester consumption [1]. - Agricultural product prices are affected by factors such as production expectations, supply - demand relationships, and weather conditions. For example, palm oil has a bearish outlook due to supply expectations, and cotton is in a state of "supported but no drive" [1]. Summary by Categories Stock Index and Bonds - Stock Index: The market sentiment and liquidity are in good condition. The index broke through the previous shock range and is expected to remain strong in the short - term [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank has warned of interest - rate risks in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Metals - Copper: The industrial situation is weak, and the macro - sentiment is volatile, resulting in high - level oscillations [1]. - Aluminum: The driving force in the electrolytic aluminum industry is limited, and the macro - sentiment is volatile, leading to price oscillations [1]. - Alumina: The domestic fundamentals are weak, and the price remains low in the short - term [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, and the negative factors have basically been realized. The price is expected to oscillate strongly as market risk appetite improves [1]. - Nickel: Global nickel inventory is high, but supply concerns have led to a recent sharp rebound in Shanghai nickel. The Indonesian policy has not been implemented but is difficult to disprove. The price may oscillate strongly in the short - term, and the long - term supply of primary nickel is in surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The raw material price has stabilized, the social inventory has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The futures price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [1]. - Tin: Affected by the industry initiative, the price oscillates weakly in the short - term. Considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa and the improved market risk appetite, low - buying opportunities are recommended [1]. - Gold: After reaching a record high, it may oscillate at a high level in the short - term due to strong US economic data and weakened interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - Platinum: The domestic futures price has a large premium over the spot and foreign markets, and the market is expected to be volatile. Rational participation is recommended [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Affected by OPEC+ policies, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuela, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [1]. - Bitumen: It follows crude oil in the short - term. The supply of Marey crude oil is sufficient, and the profit is relatively high [1]. - BR Rubber: The transaction has improved, the cost has increased, and the market sentiment is strong due to rumors of a factory shutdown [1]. - PTA: The PX price is strong, the PTA device operates at a high load, and the polyester consumption is high [1]. - MEG: Supply - side news has stimulated a rebound, and the polyester downstream demand is better than expected [1]. - Styrene: The cost has some support, the market sentiment has improved slightly, but the inventory is high [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: High - frequency data has improved, but the supply in the producing areas is expected to be loose. Rebound selling is recommended [1]. - Cotton: It is currently in a state of "supported but no drive". Attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, and weather conditions in the future [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and an increase in domestic supply. The short - term fundamentals lack continuous drive [1]. - Piglets: Affected by weather and supply - demand relationships, the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with limited decline [1]. - Soybean Meal: There is a risk of selling pressure due to high - yield expectations, and the price is affected by reserve rumors [1]. - Pulp: Affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations, unilateral investment is recommended to be on the sidelines, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads can be considered [1]. - Logs: Affected by external quotes and spot price declines, the 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Live Pigs: The supply is yet to be fully released, and the price is affected by demand support and inventory [1].

数据宝统计，截至09:37，胜通能源成交额10.00亿元，创2022年9月16日以来新高。最新股价上涨 10.01%，换手率12.06%。上一交易日该股全天成交额为1.06亿元。 据天眼查APP显示，胜通能源股份有限公司成立于2012年11月13日，注册资本28224万人民币。（数据 宝） （文章来源：证券时报网） ...

本身悬念并不大，只差临门一脚。 在"人民币即将升破7"的预期徘徊近一个月后，来自高盛的分析师给了个关键助攻。 近日，高盛发布 《 2026年全球股市展望》，在提到人民币时， 根据其动态均衡汇率模型（GSDEER），高盛测算了人民币的公允价值，显示人 民币相对美元低估近30%。 点击按钮▲预约直播 " 基于美股的研究 ：在基本面不发生背离的情况下，汇率上涨 0.1 个百分点，股票估值则提升 3%—5% 。 " 不过，口号比数字更吸引人，报告说： 文 /巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 人民币汇率相对美元的低估程度和2000年代中期相当。 2000年， 美元兑人民币汇率年平均价大约是8.28，随后，人 民币进入长达近十年的升值周期，兑美元汇率升至6.1左右 。 高盛的测算给了市场更多"看多"的信心，令本就处于升值通道的离岸人民币，开始骤然发力。 12月25日上午，美元兑离岸人民币汇率快速升破7.0关口，创下15个月来的新高，并重新正式进入"6时代"。 2005—2025美元/人民币走势 图源：钜亨网 与此同时，在岸人民币汇率探底7.0053，距离"破7"只有一步之遥 。 中国外汇交易中心公布的人民币兑美元中间价也 ...

Market Overview - The current market is undergoing a valuation repair and asset rotation driven trend [1][8] - A-shares are expected to experience a "spring rally" if three conditions are met: reasonable valuation levels, a loose liquidity environment, and effective catalysts to boost risk appetite [8] Regulatory Developments - The State Administration for Market Regulation is set to release the "Food Commissioned Production Supervision Management Measures" to address issues related to commissioned production practices, ensuring food safety responsibilities are clearly defined [3] - A new industry standard for e-commerce platforms regarding mandatory product certification verification has been implemented, aimed at enhancing consumer rights and promoting high-quality platform economy development [3] Industry Specific Updates - Four leading silicon wafer companies have significantly raised their prices, with an average increase of 12%, attributed to substantial rises in upstream silicon material costs [4] - The National Tobacco Monopoly Administration is seeking opinions on a draft notice to strengthen electronic cigarette production capacity regulation, emphasizing a market demand-oriented approach [5] Company Announcements - Dongguan Securities has indicated that the market is currently in a phase of valuation repair and asset rotation [8] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange has issued a letter of concern to Sunflower regarding its acquisition plans, requesting clarification on potential impacts on competition and independence due to legal issues faced by the target company [6]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's stock market is expected to continue its upward trend through 2026, driven by aggressive fiscal plans introduced by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, building on momentum from the past year [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Tokyo Stock Exchange index has withstood challenges such as tariff impacts, two interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, and a change in prime minister, rising approximately 23% this year [1] - This increase positions Japan's benchmark stock index for the largest gain relative to the S&P 500 since 2022 [1] Group 2: Sector Outlook - The government’s commitment to provide trillions of yen in domestic financing is expected to boost performance in the construction, infrastructure, and energy sectors next year [1] - As the focus shifts towards tangible artificial intelligence, robotics manufacturers are also anticipated to perform well [1] - Bank stocks have emerged as one of the best-performing stocks this year due to rising interest rates, and they are expected to maintain their upward trajectory [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board Composite Index (Sci-Tech Index) has shown significant growth since its launch, reflecting the overall development of China's technology innovation sector and attracting substantial investment [3][4][6]. Group 1: Performance and Coverage - The Sci-Tech Index has increased by 48.35% since its launch on January 20, 2025, outperforming major market indices [3][8]. - The index currently includes 576 stocks, covering 96% of the Sci-Tech Board companies, with a market capitalization coverage of over 91% [7][9]. - The total market capitalization of the Sci-Tech Board reached 11.14 trillion yuan, with the 576 stocks in the index accounting for 10.18 trillion yuan, or 91.38% of the total [7][9]. Group 2: Industry Composition - The index includes stocks from various sectors, with the largest representation from information technology (54.86%), followed by industrial (23.14%) and healthcare (13.50%) [7][9]. - The top ten stocks in the index represent 27.5% of its total market capitalization, with ten stocks exceeding 100 billion yuan in market value [7][9]. Group 3: Investment Products and Ecosystem - As of December 24, 2025, 45 fund managers have launched 77 index funds related to the Sci-Tech Index, with a total scale of 27 billion yuan [10][11]. - The average return of these products since their launch has been 42%, indicating strong investor interest [11]. - The index has facilitated a one-stop investment tool for investors, enhancing the accessibility of "hard technology" investments [11][12]. Group 4: Future Development and Optimization - Experts suggest that the Sci-Tech Index should continuously optimize its dynamic adjustment and maintenance mechanisms to reflect the latest developments in the hard technology sector [5][13]. - There is a need to enhance the scientific and representative nature of the index, focusing on key indicators such as R&D investment intensity and technology transfer capabilities [12][13]. - The index is expected to play a crucial role in guiding long-term capital allocation and enhancing recognition of China's technological strength among domestic and foreign investors [16][17].

作者 | 第一财经 潘寅茹 行至年末，全球贸易交出了怎样的答卷？ 2025.12. 25 本文字数：2488，阅读时长大约4分钟 12月以来，多个国际组织与国际金融机构在最新发布的报告中总结了今年全球贸易与经济的发展状况，并 就2026年的发展趋势作出了研判。 联合国贸发会议（UNCTAD）在年终题为《贸易、金融与全球经济重塑》的报告中提到，尽管受到地缘政 治紧张局势、贸易成本上升、全球需求不平衡等因素影响，今年全球贸易仍有望首次突破35万亿美元，与 去年相比增幅约为2.2万亿美元，增速约为7%。其中，货物贸易与服务贸易分别预计增长约1.5万亿美元和 7500亿美元，较2024年增幅分别为6.3%和8.8%。 同时，世界银行（WB）、国际货币基金组织（IMF）等在年末报告的展望中均表示，当前全球经济正处于 关键转折点，贸易与金融体系失衡、政策波动及气候危机等多重因素相互交织，给全球发展带来严峻挑 战，需要各国加强政策协调与合作，共同应对全球性挑战，推动经济朝着更加稳定、可持续的方向发展。 人工智能引领全球贸易 美国特朗普政府的关税政策无疑是今年贸易领域的焦点之一。上述报告均认为，正是由于美国政府关税政 策的反 ...

Core Insights - The 2026 National Disruptive Technology Innovation Competition has been launched, focusing on key areas such as integrated circuits, artificial intelligence, medical devices, and advanced manufacturing [1][2] - The competition aims to identify projects that meet specific criteria, including strong application scenarios, significant demand, deep technological routes, and independent functionality [1] Group 1: Competition Overview - The competition is a key project discovery channel for disruptive technology innovation, aiming to recommend outstanding projects for national and local funding [2] - The competition has previously supported multiple award-winning projects with funding from national or local disruptive technology innovation initiatives [2] Group 2: Evaluation Criteria - Strong application scenarios refer to projects that can lead future strategic scenes or significantly transform existing economic and social landscapes [1] - Significant demand indicates that the proposed solutions address substantial unmet needs in the market, highlighting critical pain points [1] - Deep technological routes require theoretical breakthroughs or integrated cross-disciplinary technologies that can disrupt existing core functionalities [1] - Independent functionality means that the technology can operate autonomously without reliance on other critical technologies or complex system modifications [1]