Core Viewpoint - The current performance of the US dollar and the pressure in the US financial markets are significantly correlated with President Trump's approval ratings, which have both declined by approximately 10% since he took office [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Theoretically, a weaker dollar should boost manufacturing in key swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, enhancing economic vitality. However, Trump's approval ratings and the dollar index have shown a "highly positive correlation" during his presidency [3]. - The recent market logic indicates a reassessment of the "Trump policy premium," with expectations of aggressive tax cuts and fiscal expansion post-2024 elections driving a strong dollar and elevated stock values [4]. - The market is currently experiencing a painful adjustment phase characterized by "peak positions and peak policies," with political support being a direct measure of market confidence [5][6]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Capital Flows - Investors are closely monitoring how the Trump administration balances strong dollar policies with tariffs and industrial revitalization plans, making political approval ratings a key indicator of market sentiment [5]. - A shift in market sentiment is occurring, with a transition towards "longing the real economy and shorting Wall Street assets," indicating that financial market confidence in the "American exceptionalism" narrative may rebound only when policy directions effectively enhance public support [5]. - Recent fund flows show significant movements, with $87.2 billion flowing into one-year market funds, $34.6 billion into equity funds, and $23 billion into bond funds, while gold and cryptocurrency funds experienced outflows [7][8]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - In terms of sector performance, technology funds saw inflows of $6 billion, while energy funds attracted $4.2 billion, contrasting with significant outflows from utility funds [8]. - The report highlights key technical support levels for "bubble assets," including technology ETFs at $133, Bitcoin at $58,000, and gold at $4,550 per ounce, suggesting potential stabilization points for these assets [6].

Core Insights - The global gold market experienced a significant "reverse operation" in January 2026, with gold prices suffering their worst monthly drop in decades, while simultaneously, investors rushed to buy, leading to record inflows into gold ETFs [1][3] - The World Gold Council reported that global gold ETF net inflows reached 120 tons in January 2026, equivalent to nearly $19 billion, marking the strongest monthly performance in history [1][3] Market Dynamics - The primary reason for the surge in gold ETF investments despite falling prices is the increasing global uncertainty, which enhances gold's role as a "safe haven" asset [3] - The January price drop was attributed to multiple short-term factors, including the appointment of a hawkish Federal Reserve chair, leading to a rebound in the dollar and a temporary decrease in gold's attractiveness [3] - The global debt reached $345.7 trillion, 3.1 times the global GDP, alongside rising geopolitical tensions, which continue to amplify economic risks, reinforcing the long-term demand for gold as a risk hedge [3] Regional Insights - Asia emerged as the dominant force in the global gold accumulation trend, with January inflows into Asian gold ETFs reaching 62 tons, valued at approximately $10 billion, accounting for 51.7% of global inflows [4][5] - China and India were the main contributors to this trend, with China leading at around $6 billion in inflows, driven by high gold prices and geopolitical risks, while India saw about $2.5 billion due to asset diversification needs amid stock market weaknesses [4][5] Price Recovery - Following the significant inflows, gold prices rebounded, with spot gold reaching $5,064.10 per ounce by February 9, 2026, marking a strong recovery from the January lows [6] - The rebound was supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions, central banks accumulating gold, a weaker dollar, and technical corrections following the January price drop [6] Investment Strategy - The historical net inflows into gold ETFs and the subsequent price rebound signal that gold remains an essential asset in the current complex economic environment [7] - Investors are advised to adopt a rational approach to gold investment, focusing on low-cost options like gold ETFs and avoiding high leverage and chasing prices [7] Future Outlook - The Asian market is expected to continue playing a pivotal role in the global gold landscape, driven by its economic growth and capital liquidity, further solidifying gold's status as a reliable asset in uncertain times [8]

Group 1 - The article discusses a significant drop in gold and silver prices, with silver losing half its value and gold futures dropping over 10% in a matter of hours, leading to massive losses for investors [3][5][10] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised margin requirements for gold and silver futures, increasing the gold margin from 6% to 8% and silver from 11% to 15%, which drained market liquidity [7][8] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary pointed fingers at Chinese traders for the volatility, claiming their speculative actions disrupted global order, reflecting a narrative anxiety in the U.S. regarding its financial dominance [12][15][21] Group 2 - The article highlights that U.S. control over gold pricing is diminishing, as evidenced by the need for high-profile political interventions to stabilize market sentiment [17][19] - China has been increasing its gold reserves for 15 consecutive months, with a total surpassing 2300 tons, indicating a shift towards physical assets as a hedge against financial instability [23][26] - The U.S. is facing challenges in its manufacturing sector due to reliance on Chinese rare earth supplies, which are critical for high-end manufacturing, showcasing the interconnectedness of financial and industrial strategies [34][36] Group 3 - The narrative suggests that the U.S. is attempting to maintain its financial hegemony through rule modifications, while China is focusing on accumulating physical resources, indicating a potential shift in global economic power dynamics [28][40][41] - The article posits that the future will not only be about currency competition but also about the battle for physical resources, with gold and rare earths emerging as new hard currencies [43]

2月10日消息，市场早盘窄幅震荡，三大指数再度翻绿。板块方面，影视板块持续走高，捷成股份、光线传媒20cm涨停， 上海电影、横店影视、中国电影等多股涨停；AI应用方向持续走强，荣信文化、掌阅科技2连板；创新药板块盘中反弹，海翔 药业、万邦德、吉华集团涨停；下跌方面，有色板块走低，贵金属方向领跌，晓程科技跌幅居前；白酒板块表现低迷，皇台酒 业领跌；电池板块下挫，金银河跌幅居前。总体来看，个股跌多涨少，下跌个股超2800只。 截至收盘，沪指报4122.34点，跌0.02%；深证成指报14206.26点，跌0.02%；创指报3328.02点，跌0.14%。 盘面上，影视院线、短剧游戏、Sora概念涨幅居前，机场航运、贵金属、BC电池板块跌幅居前。 热点板块： 1、创新药 海翔药业、万邦德、吉华集团涨停。 消息面上，2025年中国创新药License-out总交易规模达到创纪录的1357亿美元，2026年开年以来重磅合作频出，除信达 外，1月份石药-阿斯利康（185亿美元）、荣昌-艾伯维（56亿美元）两笔超级BD均充分验证国产创新药管线的全球价值。 2、影视院线 捷成股份、光线传媒20cm涨停，上海电影、横店影视、中 ...

中国经济网北京2月10日讯 市场今日早间横盘震荡，三大指数小幅下跌。截至午间收盘，上证指数报4122.34点，跌幅0.02%；深证成指报14206.26点， 跌幅0.02%；创业板指报3328.02点，跌幅0.14%。 板块方面，影视院线、文化传媒、游戏等板块涨幅居前，机场航运、贵金属、白酒等板块下跌。 A股市场板块涨跌幅排行 | 序号 | 板块 | 涨跌幅(%)▼ | 总成交量（万手）▼ | 总成交额（亿元）▼ | 净流入(亿元) ▼ | 上涨家数 | 下跌多 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 影视院线 | 11.62 | 2635.34 | 312.24 | 39.28 | 20 | O | | 2 | 文化传媒 | 5.33 | 4926.09 | 737.97 | 54.94 | 79 | ব | | 3 | 游戏 | 4.45 | 1695.66 | 267.50 | 30.05 | 22 | 1 | | ব | 黑色家电 | 2.34 | 137.53 | 15.99 | -4.33 | ਰੇ | O | | 5 | ...

"2026年，是中国制造业向高端化、智能化、绿色化迈进的关键时期。在这一承前启后的节点，中国化 工以及贵金属产业正从'规模扩张'迈向'质效突围'的新阶段。"这是贺利氏贵金属中国区总经理胡敏的预 测。 面对复杂多变的市场环境，如何通过高质量发展破除"内卷"，成为行业关注的焦点。胡敏强调，贺利氏 将紧扣"十五五"关于循环经济的战略部署，以"技术创新+模式变革+循环共生"为核心，不仅要在技术上 领跑，更要在产业链价值重塑上寻求突破。 对于行业创新，胡敏也带来了全新的诠释。她认为，创新不止于技术与产品，更在于全维度的体系重 构。在"十五五"开局之年，贺利氏将创新的触角延伸至组织效能与商业模式。针对国内高端电子半导体 产业的迫切需求，贺利氏推出新一代高性能新型漏板产品。同时，贺利氏于上海落成的中国氢能创新中 心已步入正轨，聚焦PEM电解槽与燃料电池催化剂的国产化应用，为氢能产业的规模化发展注入技术 动能。 多年来，贺利氏凭借卓越的产品质量与国际信誉，积极参与国内贵金属交易市场的建设。其中，贺利氏 铂钯成为广州期货交易所(GFEX)注册品牌是里程碑式的成就。胡敏介绍说，随着广期所铂钯上市，期 望进一步推动形成反映国内供需 ...

图说大宗 证券研究报告 2026.02.08 图说大宗：宏观情绪与基本面共振，金 银铜波动加剧 SAC 执证编号：S0080513070006 SFC CE Ref：BBU524 chaohui.guo@cicc.com.cn 郭朝辉 分析员 王炙鹿 分析员 陈雷 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080523030003 zhilu.wang@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080524020004 lei.chen@cicc.com.cn 宏观回顾：国内内需仍偏弱，沃什难撼扩表 国内方面，1 月中采制造业 PMI 环比下降 0.8ppt 至 49.3%，低于市场预期（Reuters 预测中值 50.0%；1 月非制造业商务活动指数环比下降 0.8ppt 至 49.4%；综合 PMI 环比下降 0.9 个百分点至 49.8%，皆再度回到收缩区间。中金宏观组认为，季节性因素或对数据扰动较大，但除了季节性以外， 需求仍然弱于供给，两者缺口进一步扩大。结构上，消费品制造业和小型企业回落较多。制造业整体受 大宗商品价格上涨影响，原材料购进价格上升，但向下游传导能力仍受制于需求。建筑业受天气和季节 性因素影 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has experienced significant volatility in early 2026, with prices reaching a historical peak of over $5,600 per ounce before dropping more than 20% in a short period, currently stabilizing above $5,000 per ounce. This reflects a reassessment of the global monetary system and geopolitical situation, positioning gold as a strategic reserve against long-term uncertainties rather than merely an investment asset or temporary safe haven [1]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Historical data indicates that gold price fluctuations have long been influenced by factors such as safe-haven demand, U.S. dollar credit, and real interest rates, with the weight of these factors varying significantly across different historical periods [2]. - In the 1970s, inflation and oil crises drove gold prices, while from the 1980s to the early 2000s, economic growth and a strong dollar led to a prolonged period of low gold prices due to increased opportunity costs of holding gold [2]. - The current gold price uptrend is characterized by a structural shift, where the influence of real interest rates is diminishing, and the dual drivers of safe-haven attributes and credit reassessment are emerging [2]. Group 2: New Dynamics in Gold Pricing - In 2026, a phenomenon of "strong dollar" and "strong gold" coexists, indicating a reduced correlation between the two, suggesting that gold is seeking a new dynamic equilibrium under multiple influencing factors [3]. - Analysts believe that as long as global macroeconomic uncertainties persist, gold prices will maintain solid support, leading to a "defensive growth" investment strategy [3]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2026, attributing this to diversified demand from the private sector and emerging markets, which is hedging against policy risks [3]. Group 3: Central Bank Influence on Gold Prices - A significant factor supporting the current gold price is the shift in the role of global central banks, which have transitioned from net sellers to net buyers of gold, with purchases expected to remain high at around 755 tons in 2026 [4]. - This trend reflects a strategic reassessment of reserve asset security amid current geopolitical contexts, with increased gold reserves becoming a defensive measure [4]. - A survey by the World Gold Council indicates that most central banks plan to increase or maintain their gold reserves in the coming year, reaffirming gold's strategic value as a physical asset with no counterparty risk [5]. Group 4: Broader Economic Implications - The high international gold prices in 2026 are seen as a reflection of the transformation in the global economic governance system, with predictions that gold's premium effect will not quickly dissipate until a new stable geopolitical landscape is established [5]. - The current trends indicate a shift in gold's role from a mere financial investment tool to a strategic cornerstone for national economic security, continuing to serve as a hedge against uncertainties [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Asian stock markets continued their strong performance, led by Japan, following Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's election victory, which boosted investor confidence and led to significant gains in the Nikkei 225 index [1][2]. Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index surpassed the 57,000-point mark, rising by 2.64% to reach a new historical high [6]. - The Topix index also increased by 1.08%, setting a new record [2]. - The KOSPI index in South Korea rose by 1.21%, nearing its historical closing high [4][5]. - The S&P/ASX 200 index in Australia gained 0.39%, aiming for a third consecutive day of increases [4][5]. Currency and Commodity Markets - The offshore RMB strengthened, breaking the 6.91 mark against the USD for the first time since May 2023, currently reported at 6.9094 [9]. - The US dollar index stabilized around 96.97 after a significant drop, which was the largest single-day decline in two weeks [7]. - Gold prices fell by 1% to $5,016.56 per ounce, while silver dropped by 2.5% to $81.31 per ounce [10]. - WTI crude oil futures decreased by 0.1% to $64.15 per barrel [14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the equity market is experiencing significant volatility, while the bond market is on the rise. Investor sentiment is cautious, leading to a lack of clear direction in the market [2][7][10] - The A-share market has seen increased fluctuations, with multiple trading days showing swings exceeding 2%. This is attributed to the collective adjustment of commodity sectors like metals and gold, alongside heightened risk aversion as the year-end approaches [3][10][11] - The report suggests a "wait and see" approach, emphasizing the need for investors to remain cautious as the market seeks a clear leading trend amidst increased volatility and uncertainty due to the upcoming 10-day market closure [3][11] Group 2 - The bond market is experiencing upward momentum due to dual external and internal factors, including the diversion of risk-averse funds from the equity and commodity markets, and a reduction in selling pressure on U.S. Treasuries as the Federal Reserve pauses interest rate cuts [4][31] - Despite the short-term opportunities in the bond market, there are concerns about potential renewed pressure from the equity and commodity markets as the economy continues to recover [5][31] - The recommendation for bond market investment is to focus on short-duration bonds, which may perform better in the current environment of fluctuating interest rates and market conditions [5][31] Group 3 - The commodity market is under pressure, with significant declines led by precious metals, resulting in increased risk levels. Investors are advised to take profits amid heightened volatility, which may deter new external investments [38] - The long-term outlook for the commodity market remains positive, driven by economic recovery and supply-demand dynamics, particularly for gold, which is expected to maintain its upward trajectory [38] - Investment strategies for commodities suggest maintaining positions in gold while avoiding high-risk entries in metals and crude oil, with opportunities for long-term investments during price dips [38]