1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views Crude Oil - Near - term supply - demand is in a tight - balance with marginal relief. Brent's main contract is expected to trade between $67 - 70 per barrel. The market should focus on Middle - East exports and feedstock demand from major consumers in Q3, as well as the progress of China - US trade negotiations [2]. Asphalt - Supply is at a low level year - on - year, and demand improved significantly in Q2. Q3 demand will determine the de - stocking strength during the peak season. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate narrowly, and the crack spread will be stronger [4][5]. Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil supply pressure in Q3 is slightly less than expected, and demand for high - sulfur feedstock is expected to increase. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is rising with no specific demand drivers [6][7]. PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - fiber, PR, Pure Benzene and Styrene - Due to factors such as new device production, maintenance, and market demand, short - term prices are expected to be oscillating and strengthening [8][11][13][15][18][20]. Plastic PP - There is still significant production capacity pressure in Q3, and the terminal demand is weak year - on - year. Currently, it is mainly macro - led, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate and strengthen [24]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC supply - demand has weakened, but short - term prices are expected to be strong due to macro - policies. Caustic soda fundamentals are marginally weaker, but the short - term price is also expected to be strong due to policy and sentiment [29]. Glass and Soda Ash - Macro and industry factors are in resonance, with both futures and spot prices rising. Short - term prices are expected to be strong, but attention should be paid to inventory and demand digestion [32][34]. Methanol - International device start - up rates are rising, and domestic supply is abundant. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate [36]. Urea - Domestic supply is abundant, but demand is expected to improve marginally. It is recommended to buy on dips [38]. Double - coated Paper - The market is partially declining, and the supply - demand is weak. Industry players are cautiously waiting and watching [40]. Logs - The price of radiata pine logs in Taicang has increased. Near - term contracts are in the delivery verification stage, and it is recommended to wait and watch [43][44]. Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - RU and NR contracts are recommended to hold long positions, and the spread between RU2509 and NR2509 should be reduced for observation [48]. Butadiene Rubber - BR contracts are recommended to short - sell a small amount, with a stop - loss set at the night - session high [52]. Pulp - The market is in a stalemate, and the short - term recommendation is to wait and watch [53]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - **Crude Oil**: WTI2509 rose $0.78 to $66.03 per barrel, Brent2509 rose $0.67 to $69.18 per barrel, and SC2509 rose to 507.1 yuan per barrel [1]. - **Asphalt**: BU2509 closed at 3598 points (+0.31%) at night, and BU2512 closed at 3458 points (+0.32%) at night [3]. - **Fuel Oil**: FU09 closed at 2893 (+1.08%) at night, and LU10 closed at 3567 (+0.31%) at night [5]. - **PX**: PX2509 closed at 7010 (+0.78%) at night, and the spot price rose to $856 per ton [7]. - **PTA**: TA509 closed at 4888 (+0.78%) at night, and the spot price was negotiated between 4775 - 4870 yuan [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: EG2509 closed at 4565 (+1.78%) at night, and the spot price was negotiated around 4542 - 4545 yuan [12]. - **Short - fiber**: PF2509 closed at 6566 (+0.71%) at night, and the spot price was stable [15]. - **PR**: PR2509 closed at 6096 (+0.89%) at night, and the spot market trading was average [16]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: BZ2503 closed at 6320 (+1.51%) at night, EB2509 closed at 7439 (+1.71%) at night, and the spot prices were in different ranges [18]. - **Plastic PP**: LLDPE market prices had partial fluctuations, and PP spot prices in different regions had different changes [22]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC prices mostly rose, and caustic soda prices were stable [25][26]. - **Glass**: The glass futures 09 contract closed at 1346 yuan per ton (+2.98%) at night, and spot prices in different regions had changes [30]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash futures 09 contract closed at 1430 yuan (+1.6%) at night, and spot prices in different regions had changes [33]. - **Methanol**: The methanol futures closed at 2494 (+1.18%) at night, and spot prices in different regions varied [35]. - **Urea**: The urea futures closed at 1785 (-0.17%), and the spot prices were stable [38]. - **Double - coated Paper**: The market had partial declines, and prices in Shandong region decreased [40]. - **Logs**: The price of radiata pine logs in Taicang increased, and the 9 - month contract fluctuated [43]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber**: RU09 rose 1.05%, NR09 rose 1.26%, and BR09 remained unchanged [46][47][50]. - **Pulp**: The SP09 contract closed at 5454 (-0.04%), and spot prices of different pulp types were in different ranges [53]. Related Information - **Crude Oil**: Tensions in the Middle - East, US - Venezuela relations, and potential EU - US trade agreements [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: Price changes in different regions, production status of refineries, and inventory data [3][4]. - **Fuel Oil**: Inventory changes in ARA and Singapore, and trading in the Singapore spot window [5][6]. - **PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - fiber, PR**: Downstream product sales, device start - up rates, and new device production plans [8][10][12][15][17]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Device start - up rates, new device production plans, and import data [19][20]. - **Plastic PP**: Device maintenance, start - up rates, and downstream industry start - up rates [24]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: Inventory changes, device start - up rates, and new device production plans [26][27][29]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Policy consultations, price changes in different regions, and inventory changes [31][33]. - **Methanol**: Production volume, device start - up rates, and international device status [36]. - **Urea**: Production volume, start - up rates, and export policies [38]. - **Double - coated Paper**: Production status of paper mills, inventory changes, and raw material prices [40][41]. - **Logs**: Price changes, pre - arrival ships, and freight rates [43][44]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber**: Border conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia, and tire production line start - up rates [48][51][52]. - **Pulp**: Industry standard formulation and downstream paper mill demand [54]. Logic Analysis - **Crude Oil**: Supply - demand balance is affected by Middle - East exports and macro - factors, and long - term supply may be in excess [2]. - **Asphalt**: Supply - demand is affected by production and demand seasons, and prices are affected by oil prices [4][5]. - **Fuel Oil**: Supply and demand of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil are affected by different factors such as device start - up and demand seasons [6][7]. - **PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - fiber, PR**: Supply is affected by new device production and maintenance, and demand is affected by the off - season [8][11][13][15][18]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Supply and demand are expected to increase in Q3, and prices are affected by cost and policy [20]. - **Plastic PP**: There is production capacity pressure, and demand is weak, but macro - factors play a leading role [24]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: Supply - demand has weakened, but macro - policies support prices [29]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Macro and industry policies drive price increases, but attention should be paid to inventory and demand digestion [32][34]. - **Methanol**: Abundant supply and stable demand lead to short - term oscillation [36]. - **Urea**: Supply is abundant, but demand is expected to improve, and prices are affected by exports [38]. - **Double - coated Paper**: Supply - demand is weak, and factories try to maintain prices [41]. - **Logs**: Downstream demand is weak, and price support and valuation are affected by multiple factors [44]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber**: Tire production line start - up rates and macro - factors affect prices [48][52]. - **Pulp**: Supply - demand is in a stalemate, and prices are affected by downstream demand [53]. Trading Strategies - **Crude Oil**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and gasoline crack spreads are weak while diesel crack spreads are stable [2]. - **Asphalt**: Unilateral trading is oscillating narrowly, the asphalt - crude oil spread is strong, and options are on hold [5]. - **Fuel Oil**: Unilateral trading is on hold, and attention should be paid to the digestion rhythm of high - sulfur spot [7]. - **PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - fiber, PR, Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Unilateral trading is oscillating and strengthening, and arbitrage and options are on hold [8][11][13][15][18][20]. - **Plastic PP**: Unilateral trading is oscillating and strengthening in the short - term, and arbitrage and options are on hold [25]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: Unilateral trading is strong, and arbitrage and options are on hold [30]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Unilateral trading is strong, arbitrage is to go long on glass and short on soda ash, and options are on hold [32][35]. - **Methanol**: Unilateral trading is oscillating and strengthening, arbitrage is on hold, and sell call options [38]. - **Urea**: Unilateral trading is to buy on dips, arbitrage is on hold, and sell put options on dips [39]. - **Double - coated Paper**: No specific trading strategies are provided. - **Logs**: Unilateral trading is to wait and watch, and arbitrage and options are on hold [45]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber**: Hold long positions in RU and NR, reduce the spread between RU2509 and NR2509 for observation, and options are on hold [48]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: Short - sell a small amount of BR, and arbitrage and options are on hold [52]. - **Pulp**: Unilateral trading is to wait and watch, and arbitrage is on hold [55].

Core Viewpoint - The packaging paper industry is experiencing a price increase, with major companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Lee & Man Paper announcing a price hike of 30 yuan/ton for corrugated paper and recycled kraft paper starting August 1, driven by rising raw material costs and tightening supply [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends - July has seen the fourth round of price increases in the paper industry, with a consistent rise in various types of raw paper prices, each time by 30 yuan/ton [1]. - As of July 21, the market price for waste yellow board paper reached 1475 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton compared to June 30 [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The increase in waste yellow board paper prices is attributed to overall limited supply and heavy rainfall affecting local waste paper trading, leading to a decrease in market supply [2]. - Major paper companies have been steadily raising their procurement prices for waste yellow board paper, which has contributed to a bullish sentiment in the waste paper market and provided cost support for finished paper price increases [2]. Group 3: Industry Performance - In the first half of the year, the corrugated and box board paper markets continued to experience a supply-demand imbalance, with average prices declining: corrugated paper at 2682 yuan/ton (down 2.44% year-on-year) and box board paper at 3616 yuan/ton (down 3.42% year-on-year) [3]. - The gross profit margins for the corrugated paper industry and box board paper industry were 9.97% and 18.96%, respectively, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [3]. - The overall profitability of the industry remains under pressure due to the supply exceeding demand, with expectations of a price recovery in the second half of the year, although it may not fully offset the declines seen in the first half [3].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a slight decline in the afternoon, with the Hang Seng Tech Index falling by 0.05%, ending a five-day winning streak, while the Hang Seng Index and the China Enterprises Index rose by 0.51% and 0.18%, respectively, both recording five consecutive increases [1][2]. Sector Performance - Large technology stocks mostly turned down in the afternoon, with Baidu and NetEase dropping over 3%, Kuaishou down over 2%, while Tencent, Meituan, and Xiaomi saw slight increases [4][5]. - The financial sector showed strength, with major Chinese brokerage and insurance stocks actively rising, including China Galaxy, CITIC Securities, and China Life, which all had significant gains [6][8]. - The paper industry is experiencing a price adjustment wave, with Nine Dragons Paper leading the rise, increasing over 9% [6][15]. - Semiconductor stocks remained active, with TSMC raising its annual growth forecast to 30%, leading to increased activity in the semiconductor sector, including notable gains for Huahong Semiconductor and SMIC [6][10]. Notable Stock Movements - Nine Dragons Paper surged by 9.27%, followed by Chenming Paper and Lee & Man Paper, which rose by 8.45% and 5.17%, respectively, due to price hikes announced for corrugated paper and recycled cardboard [6][15]. - In the biopharmaceutical sector, stocks like Kangfang Biotech and WuXi AppTec saw increases of over 7% and 6%, respectively, driven by positive market sentiment [10][19]. - Apple-related stocks collectively rose, with notable increases for companies like Cowell and BYD Electronic, which gained over 5% and 4%, respectively [11][12]. - Solar energy stocks also performed well, with New Special Energy rising over 9% and Xinyi Solar increasing by nearly 8% [13][14]. Investment Insights - The market outlook suggests a generally upward trend for Hong Kong stocks, with a focus on structural opportunities. Analysts recommend attention to sectors benefiting from favorable policies, such as stablecoin concepts, innovative pharmaceuticals, and AI industry chains [21].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Nine Dragons Paper has announced a price increase for corrugated paper and recycled kraft paper, effective from August 1, with an increase of 30 yuan per ton [1] - This marks the fourth price increase notice issued by the company, following previous announcements on July 1, July 10, and July 12 [1] - The ongoing price adjustments indicate a trend in the paper industry towards increasing costs, potentially impacting supply chain dynamics and pricing strategies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing restructuring of global supply chains and deepening regional economic integration highlight the significance of the Chain Expo, with APP (Asia Pulp & Paper Co., Ltd) emphasizing its commitment to international cooperation in supply chains and contributing to the dual circulation development pattern [2] Group 1: Company Initiatives - APP showcased its global product lines at the Chain Expo under the theme "Chain Movement Ecology, Golden Color World," focusing on innovations in the "dual circulation cross-border industrial chain" and "green intelligence-enabled ecological chain" [2] - The company aims to connect bilateral industries, trade, and culture through its participation, particularly highlighting its role as a bridge for Chinese and Indonesian collaboration [2] Group 2: Product Highlights - APP introduced its leading eco-friendly packaging products, including Enza Shield high-barrier kraft paper, Foopak PFAS Free oil-resistant food cartons, and Foopak Bio Natura biodegradable food cartons, marking their first domestic exhibition [3] - The Enza Shield high-barrier kraft paper is made from 100% virgin wood pulp and features a lightweight, plastic-free food-grade coating, offering excellent oil resistance, waterproofing, and heat sealing, while being 100% biodegradable and recyclable [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent price adjustments by Nine Dragons Paper, led by Zhang Yin, in response to rising operational costs and the cyclical nature of the paper industry, highlighting the challenges and strategies in navigating a fluctuating market [4][5][6]. Group 1: Cost Pressures - The paper industry is highly cyclical, with prices closely tied to macroeconomic changes, leading to significant pressure on companies like Nine Dragons Paper [14]. - Since 2021, paper mills have been releasing capacity while downstream demand has not kept pace, forcing companies to adjust prices frequently to maintain market share [17][18]. - As of July, the average price of waste paper has decreased by 0.66% month-on-month, while the price of corrugated paper has dropped by 1.41%, indicating that raw material cost reductions are not sufficient to alleviate profit pressures [19][20]. Group 2: Navigating the Downturn - Zhang Yin has led Nine Dragons Paper for nearly 30 years, with the company experiencing its first loss in 2023, amounting to 2.38 billion RMB [35]. - Despite the downturn, there are signs of market recovery, with improved demand for packaging paper and a gradual increase in market conditions [36][37]. - The company has successfully reduced inventory levels, with stock decreasing to 9.5 billion RMB, a reduction of 647 million RMB year-on-year [24]. Group 3: Capacity Expansion - Zhang Yin is focusing on increasing control over raw material supply by investing in upstream integration, including acquiring paper mills in the U.S. and establishing recycling operations in China [46]. - Nine Dragons is expanding its production capacity, with new projects in Guangxi and Hubei expected to increase annual design capacity to 8.19 million tons and paper production capacity to 25.37 million tons [48][49]. - The total assets of Nine Dragons reached 138.71 billion RMB by the end of 2024, reflecting a significant increase in investment in property, plants, and equipment [52].

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Type: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: July 23, 2025 [2] 2. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: The previous settlement price of the pulp futures 09 contract was 5,328 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,368 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.75%. [7] - **Spot Market**: The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong market was 5,220 - 6,700 yuan/ton. The low - end price remained stable compared to the previous trading day. The Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 5,950 yuan/ton. [7] - **International Quotes**: Chile's Arauco announced its July quotes. The Yinxing had no new offers as the previous deals were completed. The net price of Uruguay's hardwood pulp, New Star, was $500/ton. [7] - **Production and Shipment**: In May, the shipment volume of softwood pulp from the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries was 1.69 million tons, up 4.4% month - on - month and down 8.2% year - on - year. [7] - **Inventory and Consumption**: In June, the European wood pulp inventory increased by 2.4% month - on - month and 6.6% year - on - year; consumption decreased by 9.9% month - on - month and 10.6% year - on - year. China's pulp imports in June were 3.03 million tons, up 0.4% month - on - month and 16.1% year - on - year. As of July 17, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 1.08% month - on - month, turning from an increase to a decrease. [7] - **Market Trend**: Affected by the off - season atmosphere, the prices of downstream paper products were weak. With limited changes in fundamentals, the pulp market fluctuated and rose slightly in the short term, driven by the commodity market atmosphere. [7] 3. Industry News - On July 22, the annual 150,000 - ton special paper project of Sichuan Hefeng Paper of Taisheng Group was successfully put into operation. The project uses bamboo pulp as the main raw material, focusing on producing 40 - 100 - gram low - gram - weight food packaging paper. After the two paper machines in Sichuan reach full production, they are expected to have a significant impact on the special paper market in the southwest region, with some production capacity sold to the central and eastern coastal areas. [8] 4. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the total warehouse receipts, domestic main port pulp inventory, European main port wood pulp inventory, and prices and spreads of various paper products [25][27][29]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of double-offset paper is 0, indicating a neutral stance on the market [1]. Core View - The offset printing paper market is experiencing a low-level oscillation with limited upward momentum. The cost has increased, leading to a decline in both pre - tax and post - tax gross margins [1]. Summary by Category Fundamental Data - In the Shandong market, the prices of 70g Tianyang, 70g Chenming Yunjing, and 70g Huaxia Taiyang remained unchanged at 4850 yuan/ton, 5150 yuan/ton, and 5150 yuan/ton respectively from July 18th to July 21st, 2025. In the Guangdong market, the prices of 70g Tianyang, 70g Chenming Yunbao, and 70g Huaxia Taiyang also remained stable [1]. - Pre - tax, the含税收入 remained at 5100 yuan/ton, the含税 cost increased from 5014 yuan/ton to 5028 yuan/ton, and the pre - tax gross margin decreased from 86 yuan/ton to 72 yuan/ton. Post - tax, the non - taxable income was stable at 4513 yuan/ton, the non - taxable cost increased from 4610 yuan/ton to 4622 yuan/ton, and the post - tax gross margin decreased from - 96 yuan/ton to - 109 yuan/ton [1]. Industry News - In the Shandong market, the mainstream negotiated price of high - white double - offset paper is 5000 - 5200 yuan/ton, and some natural - white double - offset paper is priced at 4600 - 4900 yuan/ton. The price is stable compared to the previous day. Large - scale paper mills are operating normally, while small and medium - sized mills have flexible production schedules. Dealers' inventory reduction progress is average, and their purchasing attitude is cautious. Publication orders are being delivered, while social orders are in the off - season [2]. - In the Guangdong market, the mainstream negotiated price of high - white double - offset paper is 4900 - 5100 yuan/ton, and the price of natural - white double - offset paper is 4700 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day. Social orders are weak, and dealers still face sales pressure. The recent commissioning of new production capacity in the South China region has led to a bearish market sentiment, but paper prices remain stable for now [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and strategies of Nine Dragons Paper, led by Zhang Yin, in navigating the cyclical nature of the paper industry, particularly in response to rising operational costs and fluctuating demand [4][6][10]. Group 1: Cost Pressures - The paper industry is highly cyclical, with prices closely tied to macroeconomic changes, leading to significant pressure on margins due to rising costs of raw materials like wood pulp and waste paper [10][11]. - Since 2021, paper mills have been releasing capacity while downstream demand has not kept pace, forcing companies like Nine Dragons to adjust prices frequently to maintain market share [13][14]. - In July, the average price of waste paper decreased by 0.66% month-on-month, while corrugated paper saw a decline of 1.41%, indicating that the reduction in raw material costs is not sufficient to alleviate profit pressures [15][16]. Group 2: Market Recovery and Strategy - Zhang Yin has been proactive in expanding production capacity and diversifying product offerings, focusing on high-end products to avoid price wars in the low-end market [36][39]. - Nine Dragons reported a significant increase in sales volume, reaching 11.4 million tons, with revenue nearing 33.46 billion RMB, marking a recovery from previous lows [38]. - The company is investing heavily in capacity expansion, with projects in Guangxi and Hubei expected to increase annual production capacity significantly, aiming for a total capacity of 8.19 million tons of fiber raw materials and 25.37 million tons of paper [43][46]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Outlook - For the fiscal year 2023, Nine Dragons experienced a loss of 2.38 billion RMB, the first loss in 17 years, but has since seen improvements in demand and profitability [33][34]. - The total assets of Nine Dragons reached 143.3 billion RMB by the end of 2024, with a significant portion attributed to property and equipment investments [47]. - The company anticipates that government initiatives to boost consumption will support demand in the packaging paper sector, with some analysts suggesting that the industry may be at a cyclical bottom [50][51].

综述 1 国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 日期：2025年7月20日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行情研判 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 | | 本周胶版印刷纸观点：震荡偏弱 | | --- | --- | | 供应 | 国产方面，本周，国内双胶纸行业产量为166.9万吨，产能利用率为49.7%； 进口方面，5月，国内双胶纸进口量为1.5万吨； | | 需求 | 内需方面，本周国内双胶纸销量为175.5万吨； 出口方面，5月，国内双胶纸出口量为7.44万吨； | | 观点 | 本周趋势由稳转跌；70g木浆本白双胶纸市场均价为4708元/吨，环比下跌1.40%，本周跌幅环比扩大1.07个百分点。影响市场价格走势的主要 因素有：第一， ...