Core Viewpoint - The trading activity of the Chinese yuan on the Moscow Exchange has significantly increased in June, but the average daily trading volume remains below 100 billion rubles, indicating a recovery from a previous low rather than sustained growth [1][2]. Group 1: Trading Activity - In June, the total trading volume of "next-day delivery" yuan exceeded 1.58 trillion rubles, a 13% increase from May [2]. - The average daily trading volume also grew nearly 13% to 800 billion rubles, although it is still significantly lower than the levels seen in February and March, when daily trading volumes exceeded 1 trillion rubles [2]. - The increase in trading activity in June is attributed to higher oil prices at the end of the first quarter, which led to increased foreign exchange income for exporters [2]. Group 2: Currency Exchange Rate - By the end of June, the yuan's exchange rate was 1 yuan to 10.92 rubles, a slight increase of 2 kopecks from the beginning of the month [3]. - The exchange rate fluctuated within a narrow range of 10.8 to 11 rubles per yuan during June, indicating a stabilization in the market [3]. - Analysts expect that the yuan's supply from exporters may decrease in July due to falling oil prices in April and May, which could lead to reduced foreign exchange sales [3]. Group 3: Future Predictions - Experts predict that the ruble will gradually depreciate in the second half of the year, with the average exchange rate expected to reach approximately 1 yuan to 11.7 rubles and 1 dollar to 85 rubles by the fourth quarter [4]. - Factors contributing to the ruble's depreciation include seasonal import demand, increased foreign exchange spending for summer travel, and potential interest rate cuts by the Central Bank of Russia [4]. - Analysts believe that the yuan's exchange rate will rise in the second half of the year, while the ruble will experience moderate depreciation due to seasonal factors and monetary policy [4].

Group 1 - The core point of the article discusses the recent interest rate cut by the Russian central bank from 20% to 18%, with a forecast to further reduce it to 14% by the end of the year, highlighting the implications for savings and loans in the Russian economy [3][5][10] - The interest rate of 18% is significantly higher than in many other countries, making saving attractive but borrowing extremely costly, which could stifle economic activity [4][6][12] - The central bank's decision to cut rates is seen as a response to decreasing inflation, which has dropped from a peak of 12.8% to 4.3%, indicating a potential stabilization of the economy [6][8][9] Group 2 - The central bank's rate cut is described as a "medicine" for the economy, aimed at alleviating the financial burden on businesses and encouraging investment, as high rates previously restricted economic growth [7][10] - The article outlines three key factors that give the central bank confidence in lowering rates: reduced inflation, the need for economic recovery, and a stabilized currency exchange rate [8][9][12] - Despite the rate cuts, the article warns that the underlying issues in the Russian economy, such as technological isolation and labor shortages, remain unresolved, suggesting that the economic recovery may be slow and challenging [11][12][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Brent and WTI may still have a chance to challenge $80 per barrel in the third quarter, and SC may challenge 580 yuan per barrel. In the long - term, there is significant downward pressure on oil prices. Brent and WTI may test $50 per barrel this year, and SC may test 420 yuan per barrel [5]. - In the short - term, the valuation is at a medium level and there is still a chance to rise. The strategy includes short - term bottom - fishing and long - term high - selling [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Overview - This week's view on crude oil is to hold long positions. In the third quarter, there may still be a chance to challenge $80. Supply shows that Russian crude oil supply is resilient, and non - Russian supply has significant changes. Demand is differentiated, with different trends in refineries and refined oil products in different regions [5]. 3.2 Macro - The long - end US Treasury yield fluctuates significantly, and the gold - oil ratio rebounds. Overseas inflation rises, and the service industry PMI rebounds. The RMB exchange rate continues to strengthen, and social financing recovers [11][16][17]. 3.3 Supply - OPEC + core member countries: Saudi Arabia leads the August OPEC + production increase plan. Iraq's Kirkuk crude oil plans to resume exports by the end of the year. The UAE reduces the allocation of Murban crude oil. Other countries also have various production and export situations [7]. - Non - OPEC +: The US shale oil production and drilling rig numbers decline. Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and other countries also have different supply changes. OPEC + is accelerating the exit from production cuts, and non - OPEC + supply is expected to increase in 2025 [8]. 3.4 Demand - The spot demand turns weak marginally. In different regions, China's new refining capacity will be released in the second half of the year. Asian and European refineries have different raw material preferences. The demand for refined oil products is polarized, with tight diesel supply and weak gasoline demand [9]. 3.5 Inventory - The US commercial inventory rebounds, and the inventory in the Cushing area stabilizes but is significantly lower than the historical average. The European crude oil inventory rebounds, while diesel and gasoline are destocking. The domestic refined oil profit is repaired [58][63][65]. 3.6 Price, Spread, and Position - The North American basis rebounds slightly, the monthly spread declines, SC is stronger than the outer market and the monthly spread strengthens, and the net long position stabilizes [68][70][75].

Core Viewpoint - China's energy strategy is crucial for national security, especially in the context of ongoing global geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and conflicts in the Middle East, which impact energy supply and security [1][3]. Group 1: Energy Production and Consumption - China is the world's largest producer and consumer of coal, accounting for nearly half of global coal production and consumption, approximately 4 billion tons, with coal making up about 54% of its primary energy consumption [3][4]. - As of April 2023, China is also the largest renewable energy country, with solar photovoltaic capacity of about 1 billion kilowatts, representing 40% of global capacity, and wind power capacity of 550 million kilowatts, accounting for 45% of the global total [4][6]. - China ranks as the seventh largest oil producer and the fourth largest natural gas producer globally, while being the largest importer of both oil and natural gas, with a projected oil import dependency of around 72% in 2024 [6][7]. Group 2: Energy Security Assessment - China's energy security can be described as sensitive but not fragile, with a self-sufficiency rate of approximately 85%, as coal does not require imports, and non-fossil energy sources are domestically produced [7][8]. - The implementation of the "Oil and Gas Increase Storage and Production Seven-Year Action Plan" has led to an increase in domestic oil production from 189 million tons in 2018 to 213 million tons in 2024, with a net increase of 4 million tons annually [8][9]. - Current global oil and gas markets are characterized by oversupply, benefiting China's import strategy, as major producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia are increasing their output [9][10]. Group 3: Global Energy Market Integration - China has established a diversified energy import strategy, integrating into the global energy market through various oil and gas cooperation projects across 35 countries, including significant pipelines and strategic partnerships [10][11]. - The development of energy corridors, such as the China-Kazakhstan oil pipeline and the China-Central Asia gas pipeline, has become essential for ensuring energy security and is a hallmark of the Belt and Road Initiative [11][12]. Group 4: Future Energy Transition - The transition to renewable energy is critical, with a focus on key minerals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel, which are essential for energy storage technologies, highlighting the need for domestic production capabilities to reduce import dependency [13][14]. - China's energy strategy emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balance between traditional fossil fuels and renewable energy, with coal's share expected to decrease while natural gas consumption is projected to rise until around 2040 [14][40].

俄乌冲突以后，面对美西方全面制裁，俄罗斯仍然靠出口石油天然气，硬生生撑了3年多与整个西方打消耗战。然而随着特朗普威胁要对购买俄能源的国家 进行二级制裁。普京终于清醒了，他表示："如果我们继续只靠卖油气活着，那俄罗斯终将沦为一个末流国家。" 苏联时期，靠军火和油气撑起国家对外的贸易结构。到了俄罗斯，没怎么改动，继续这条路。只不过苏联时代还能靠军事扩张带来政治红利，而现在，军事 投入带来的则是经济压力和国际孤立。 过去，资源是优势，能换外汇，能养军队。可现在全球能源正在转型，欧美国家正在快速降低对化石能源的依赖，新能源、可再生能源大行其道。对俄罗斯 来说，欧洲对传统石化能源需求开始降低。 7月20日，俄罗斯国家电视台播出了一期《俄罗斯、克里姆林宫、普京》的节目。这档节目其实是今年1月录制的，但内容分量十足。节目里，主持人扎鲁宾 和普京展开了一场直面现实的对话。 普京罕见地敞开心扉，说："我们不能永远靠卖资源维持国家运转，这种经济结构在技术上没有前途。"这话一出口，无异于给国内一部分还沉浸在"油气金 矿梦"里的民众泼了一盆冷水。 事实上，俄乌冲突以来，西方已经对俄罗斯施加了超过三万项制裁。从能源、金融到科技、交通， ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has initiated a "Cool Delivery" activity to provide care and support to employees working in high-temperature conditions, demonstrating a commitment to employee welfare and safety. Group 1: Response and Action - The company promptly responded to the directive from the party committee, mobilizing the local branch to address employee needs and implement a cooling support plan efficiently [2] - The entire process from planning to delivery was seamless, ensuring that the care from the company reached employees in a timely manner [2] Group 2: Employee Care and Support - The local branch prioritized precise care by selecting refreshing items such as watermelons, green beans, and beverages to help employees cope with the heat [3] - Every expense was carefully considered to ensure that resources were allocated effectively to meet employee needs [3] Group 3: Coverage and Impact - The local branch ensured that every station and employee received the cooling supplies, regardless of location or workload, fostering a sense of appreciation among employees [4] - The smiles and gratitude expressed by employees highlighted the positive impact of the initiative on team morale and cohesion [4] Group 4: Safety and Commitment - Employees expressed that the organization's concern was a valuable gift during the heat, promising to convert this care into a strong motivation for maintaining safety and health [5] - The "Cool Delivery" initiative not only provided immediate relief but also reinforced the foundation for safe production practices within the company [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and gas sector [5]. Core Views - The demand for oil has been supported by the traditional peak season in the Northern Hemisphere, with oil prices remaining relatively high since July [1][11]. - The report indicates that the actual tightness in the oil market may be greater than the IEA's supply-demand balance suggests, highlighting the importance of OPEC+'s production adjustments and seasonal consumption trends [1][4]. - Long-term, high-dividend energy companies with the ability to increase production and reduce costs, as well as those with growing natural gas operations, are expected to present investment opportunities [4][66]. Demand Side Summary - Global oil demand growth slowed significantly in Q2 2025, dropping from 1.1 million barrels per day in Q1 to 0.55 million barrels per day in Q2 [2][17]. - China's commercial crude oil inventory saw a record quarterly increase, which is crucial for long-term energy security [2][23]. - The traditional peak season for travel and electricity demand in Q3 is expected to further tighten the market, with historical data indicating a combined increase of 900,000 barrels per day in oil demand for power generation from May to August [2][23]. Supply Side Summary - Global oil supply is projected to increase by 2.1 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026, with OPEC+ accelerating production [3][38]. - In June, oil exports from the Gulf region surged, driven by concerns over supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions [3][43]. - OPEC+ has raised its production targets for August, indicating a significant reduction in voluntary production cuts implemented since 2023, which could lead to an oversupply in the market [3][43][66]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends investing in high-dividend energy companies with the capacity to increase production and reduce costs, specifically highlighting China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) and China Petroleum [4][66]. - The forecast for Brent crude oil prices is set at $68 and $62 per barrel for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with Q3 and Q4 2025 prices expected to be $68 and $63 per barrel [4][66].

Core Viewpoint - China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) is undergoing a significant digital and intelligent transformation to enhance production efficiency, optimize operations, and innovate business models, aiming for high-quality development in the energy sector [1][2]. Group 1: Digital Transformation Initiatives - CNPC has launched the "Smart China National Petroleum" initiative as part of its strategic measures to drive governance, production, management, and technological innovation through digitalization [1][2]. - The company has established a comprehensive digital governance framework, including the formation of various leadership groups to oversee digital transformation efforts [2]. - A data governance campaign has been initiated to address issues related to data fragmentation and quality, accelerating the information enhancement project [2]. Group 2: Operational Efficiency Improvements - CNPC has optimized 13,000 processes into 923 standardized units, reducing data coding volume by over 35%, which has led to significant improvements in operational management [4]. - The company has achieved a 90% automation rate for financial vouchers and a 70% automation rate for report generation across 145 domestic units [5]. - The implementation of smart operations systems has enhanced decision-making capabilities and emergency response coordination across the entire production chain [4]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - CNPC is developing a comprehensive digital ecosystem that includes a financial shared service system and a cloud platform for shale oil, enhancing operational efficiency and data utilization [6][8]. - The company has successfully deployed 58 digital employees using RPA technology, saving over 1,400 hours of work monthly, equivalent to adding eight management personnel without increasing labor costs [8]. - The development of the Kunlun large model has significantly improved efficiency in seismic interpretation and reduced project cycles by over 20% [9]. Group 4: Smart Energy Solutions - CNPC's smart oil fields have integrated over 15 petabytes of exploration and production data, achieving a 90% real-time data entry rate and enhancing operational efficiency by 20% [11]. - The smart gas sales system has connected 940,000 devices and optimized gas supply plans, contributing to the formation of an "Internet + Energy + Life" ecosystem [11]. - The company has established a comprehensive energy station management system that monitors over 20,000 gas stations and 60,000 charging piles, enhancing service delivery and customer engagement [11]. Group 5: Industry Leadership and Recognition - CNPC has been recognized as a pilot enterprise for digital transformation by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, showcasing its leadership in the energy sector [12]. - The company has developed advanced software for seismic data processing, which is now one of the three major mainstream exploration software globally, demonstrating its technological prowess [12].

重点要闻 中金黄金公布6名学生参观子公司溺亡情况说明 中国黄金披露，东北大学6名学生在中金黄金股份有限公司控股子公司中国黄金集团内蒙古矿业有限公司乌努格吐山铜钼矿选矿厂参观学习浮选工艺过程 中，因格栅板脱落坠入浮选槽。经全力施救，6人被救出后，医护人员确认已溺亡。另有1名老师受伤。事件发生后，公司领导高度重视，立即启动应急预 案，第一时间前往现场组织处理，及时按相关程序上报当地政府各相关部门。目前各项处置工作正有序进行。 常熟银行拟吸收合并三家村镇银行并设立分支机构 根据披露，截至2024年末，滨海兴福总资产159,472.50 万元，总存款137,636.10 万元，总贷款14.05亿元，不良率0.98%，拨备覆盖率361.10%；润州长江总资 产78,656.24 万元，总存款5.59亿元，总贷款1.26亿元，不良率1.44%，拨备覆盖率424.28%；钟楼长江总资产43,043.40 万元，总存款31,742.67 万元，总贷款 2.84亿元，不良率1.77%，拨备覆盖率246.63%。 宁波银行2025年上半年净利润同比增长8.23% 宁波银行(002142.SZ)公告2025上半年业绩快报，2025 ...

智通财经7月24日电，中国石化发布2025年上半年生产经营数据，上半年原油产量初步数据1.4亿桶，同 比下降0.3%；天然气产量初步数据7,362.8亿立方英尺同比增长5.1%。 中国石化上半年原油产量初步数据1.4亿桶 ...