周期反转的号角已经吹响，聪明资金悄然布局。 数据显示，2025年12月，石油和化工行业景气指数回升至100.91，环比上涨3.7个百分点，总体呈现复苏 迹象。值得注意的是，燃料加工业景气指数为114.45，环比上升19.77个百分点，显现出强劲反弹势头。 细分领域表现更加亮眼。在"减油增化"趋势推动下，炼化企业稳步推进转型升级。同时，传统石化品逐 步向高端化转型，国产替代加速，科技助力新兴产业崛起，新材料需求空间广阔。 今年以来，石化板块悄然走强。截至1月27日，石化ETF（159731）今年以来收益率已达11.82%，远超 沪深300指数1.64%的水平。更引人注目的是，该基金连续获得资金净流入，今年以来累计"吸金"达8亿 元，规模从去年底的2.45亿元迅速飙升至1月27日的10.45亿元，创下成立以来新高。 这一持续资金流入的背后，是市场对石化产业周期底部反转的强烈预期。 01 周期、政策与资金共振 首先，行业周期反转是最大驱动力。有研究机构指出，在基本面有所改善的背景下，化工板块的配置占 比在去年四季度出现触底回升。当前板块扩产周期基本结束，盈利仍处于周期底部。 华泰证券指出，2025年下半年以来化学原 ...

报告要点 [Table_Summary] 上证指数在 2026 年开年连续上涨后进入阶段性的震荡整固期，技术上 RSI 指标从超买区回落， 正寻求 10EMA 与 21EMA 均线支撑，换手率高位回落但全 A 成交额倍数指标尚未触及历史高 点，结构上看，商业航天及 AI 应用等热点板块仍待企稳。从中长期股债性价比看，市场估值仍 有较大上行空间，资金面上，杠杆资金高度聚焦科技方向，电子、通信、军工等方向融资余额 占比已创 2015 年以来新高，风格极值接近滚动 3 个月均值，短期市场轮动或将加速，金融、 消费风格或有望迎来反弹，中长期看好"科技+资源"双主线不变。 丨证券研究报告丨 市场策略丨专题报告 [Table_Title] 降温不改暖意，慢牛行远未已——A 股的情绪与 位置（1 月 W3） 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 李巍东 SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 降温不改暖意，慢牛行远未已—— 2] A 股的情绪与 位置（1 月 W3） [ ...

截至2026年1月28日 13:29，中证石化产业指数(H11057)强势上涨3.13%，化工行业ETF易方达(516570)一 度涨超4%，现涨3.23%，盘中换手8.22%，成交4633.00万元。 化工行业ETF易方达（516570，场外联接A/C: 020104/020105）一键打包三桶油、万华化学等石油石 化、基础化工产业龙头，跟踪的中证石化产业指数指数构成接近于石化化工板块中哑铃策略标的，同时 涵盖高股息+高成长成份券，2023年以来收益表现在可比化工行业指数中保持领先。 化工行业ETF易方达(516570)管理+托管费率0.15%+0.05%/年，显著低于石化化工板块的同类ETF产品， 较低的费率能够有效为投资者降低成本支出，以更高性价比布局石化化工产业供需两端共振向好发展机 遇！ 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 从资金净流入方面来看，化工行业ETF易方达(516570)近8天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得 7496.68万元净流入，合计"吸金"2.80亿元。 消息面上，美国北达科他州因严寒天气而减产石油8万-11万桶/日。国信期货指出，上周五一场伴有 ...

【报告导读】在AI投资宏观风险较低、降息周期下全球制造业景气度向上的背景下，会有更多行业的景气度出现改善，投资者可能还是会更加关注增长 率而非股息率。因此在红利策略内部，行业选择上可以更多地向基本面要弹性。跨市场比较来看，港股红利依旧具备性价比，但对于个人投资者而言考虑 到红利税之后可能就没那么明显。 Summary 摘要 1一问红利：2026年是否会有超额？ 2025年红利策略大幅跑输市场，最核心的原因在于市场找到了新的能够突破宏观趋势的成长性：以AI产业投资为代表，以及景气度也开始逐步扩散到与 AI强相关的"泛AI"领域。所以市场的定价驱动力从2022年至2024年上半年的股息率d逐步开始重新转向增长率g。展望2026年，红利策略是否会有相较于全 A的超额收益，核心判断还是在于市场是否依旧以基本面的边际变化作为核心驱动力？基于我们年度策略《世界的中国》对于2026年的基本面展望，在AI 投资宏观风险较低、降息周期下全球制造业景气度向上的背景下，2026年中国的企业盈利修复可能是股票市场的核心驱动力，会有更多的行业景气度出现 改善。在这种宏观背景下，我们认为投资者可能还是会更加关注基本面的边际变化（增长率） ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of the dividend sector in the stock market, particularly the 800 Cash Flow ETF (159119), which is noted for its unique low fee rate of 0.2% per year [1][3] - The 800 Cash Flow ETF selects companies with strong cash-generating capabilities, referred to as "cash cows," from the top 800 companies in the market, with leading industries including automotive, petrochemicals, and home appliances [3] - The investment strategy represented by the ETF signifies a shift from traditional high dividend yields to a focus on sustainable free cash flow and company growth potential, indicating a deeper transition in investment philosophy towards value-based investing [3] Group 2 - The current macroeconomic environment is leading to a re-evaluation of the value of high-quality companies that can consistently generate stable free cash flow, highlighting their scarcity in the market [3] - This investment approach serves as a stabilizing force against economic fluctuations and aligns with the evolving trend from "high dividend" to "high quality" dividend investments [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of the A-share cyclical sector, particularly the 中证现金流ETF大成 (159235), which has seen a significant increase in both price and trading volume, indicating robust investor interest [1] - The 中证全指自由现金流指数, which the ETF tracks, focuses on companies with high free cash flow, reflecting strong cash flow generation capabilities, and has shown a strong upward trend, with a 2.02% increase [1][2] - The index's top ten weighted stocks include major companies such as 中国海油, 上汽集团, and 格力电器, which are positioned to benefit from the current cyclical recovery in the market [1][2] Group 2 - The index's focus on high cash flow companies is particularly relevant in the current cyclical environment, where sectors like oil, steel, and non-ferrous metals are experiencing improved supply-demand dynamics and rising product prices [2] - The recovery in domestic industrial production and infrastructure demand, along with low inventory levels, is providing strong upward momentum for the index, enhancing its performance [2] - The home appliance sector, which constitutes about 10% of the index, is also benefiting from increased domestic demand and improving conditions in the real estate sector, contributing to the overall resilience of the index [2] Group 3 - The analysis from 西部证券 indicates that during periods of economic downturn, there is a tendency for investors to flock to gold and stable cash flow assets, which has led to a reevaluation of cash flow strategies in the A-share market [3] - The shift from "involution" to "anti-involution" and the return of cross-border capital are expected to improve corporate free cash flow, making cash flow strategies more competitive compared to dividend strategies [3]

智通财经APP获悉，中银国际发布研报称，2025年化工行业景气度处于低位。展望2026年，本轮行业扩 产已近尾声，"反内卷"等措施有望催化行业盈利底部修复，同时新材料受益于下游需求的快速发展，有 望开启新一轮高成长。当前行业估值处于低位。维持行业强于大市评级，推荐三条投资主线。1、传统 化工龙头；2、"反内卷"等持续催化，关注供需格局持续向好子行业；3、下游行业快速发展，新材料领 域公司发展空间广阔。 中银国际主要观点如下： 化工品价格处于历史低位，基础化工盈利周期性触底 截至2025年11月，全国工业品PPI、生产资料PPI及化工工业PPI均连续38个月呈现同比负增长，形成仅 次于2012-2016年周期(当时为连续54个月)的历史第二长负增长持续期间。产品价格方面，以2015年以来 的价格数据为基础，截至25年12月底，在该行跟踪的111个化工品种中，价格分位数在10%以下的品种 有30种，价格分位数在30%以下(含10%以下)的品种有70种，价格分位数在50%以上的品种有25种。截 至2025年前三季度，SW基础化工行业销售毛利率和销售净利率分别为16.82%和6.41%。SW石油石化行 业得益于油气上 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a favorable outlook for mid-cap blue-chip stocks, particularly in cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals, as well as manufacturing sectors like engineering machinery [6][16]. Core Insights - The anticipated changes are beneficial for mid-cap blue chips, with recent events catalyzing interest in cyclical industries and manufacturing, aligning with the market's shift towards a more balanced risk appetite [6][16]. - Key sectors to watch include non-ferrous metals, defense and military industry, and machinery equipment, with a noted strengthening trend in these areas [20][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Expected Changes Favoring Mid-Cap Blue Chips - Liquidity expectations have improved, leading to intensified trading activity, driven by rising optimism regarding interest rate cuts following the potential election of BlackRock's Riedel as Fed Chair, with a probability of 54% [9][11]. - Significant price increases in typical petrochemical products such as butadiene rubber, PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol have enhanced profitability expectations for refining companies [11][12]. - China's engineering machinery exports surged to USD 6.417 billion in December 2025, a 27.2% year-on-year increase, supported by more active participation in Belt and Road Initiative projects [12][15]. - The real estate market shows signs of recovery, particularly in major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, although the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain [15][27]. 2. Trading Dynamics - The report notes that while the overall market sentiment for large-cap stocks has declined, mid-cap and small-cap stocks exhibit stable short-term sentiment with decreasing medium-term uncertainty, suggesting potential for small-cap stocks to catch up [17][27]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring trading behavior through asset volatility, indicating that changes in volatility reflect shifts in trading sentiment [17][20]. 3. Sector Rotation - The report highlights a strengthening trend in cyclical sectors related to mid-cap blue chips, particularly non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals, while the real estate sector shows weakening reversal signals [20][21][27]. - Short-term sentiment and medium-term uncertainty for non-ferrous metals, defense, and petrochemical sectors are both on the rise, indicating potential investment opportunities [23][26].

中化新网讯 1月26日14时56分，甘肃甘南州迭部县发生5.5级地震(震源深度10千米)。地震发生后，石油 石化企业迅速启动应急响应，全力保障地震波及区域内各加能站运行正常、油品供应稳定，筑牢震区能 源生命线。 中国石油甘肃销售公司所属甘南分公司火速成立应急指挥领导小组，10分钟内完成震中50千米范围内3 座加油站——迭部云峰加油站、迭山加油站、代古寺加油站的全覆盖安全排查。经核查，所有站点设备 完好、无油品泄漏，员工与顾客零伤亡。3站同步开通抗震救灾绿色通道，优先保障救援车辆"即到即 加"。截至目前，沿线及震区油品供应全线畅通，3座核心加油站已实现满库存运行，首台自有流动加油 车已抵达迭部支援，8台后备流动加油车整装待命、随时响应。 地震发生后，中国石化甘肃石油公司立即启动地震应急预案，全面部署隐患排查和应急处置工作。定 西、兰州、天水分公司及实化交通公司迅速响应，组织专人对油罐区、加油机、站房等关键设施开展拉 网式排查，确保人员和财产安全。为保障地震期间的能源供应和民生需求，甘肃石油在地震影响沿线的 高速公路及国省道干线加能站开通绿色加油通道，优先保障应急救援车辆和民生运输车辆用油，为抗震 救灾提供坚实的 ...

南方财经1月28日电，石油石化板块持续走强，石化油服涨停，泰山石油、通源石油、科力股份、洲际 油气、中国海油、潜能恒信等跟涨。 ...