李斯特的贸易保护主义，特朗普能用的基本都用了，奈何美元体系下的金融市场，说到底是听华尔街的，而不是听白宫的，我们只看到美国财政部和美联储 的冲突，但忽略了美国的金融系统实际上并不受美国财政完全掌控，美国有大量的交易策略都是在做空美国自己，这在东方是不可想象的，而正因为如此， 所以华尔街是不希望回到过去工业强国的时代，这种体系会影响其利差和杠杆的放大能力，从而增加他们投机时对自己的风险。 而美国持续的巨额贸易逆差，本质是因为其他国家对美投资效应旺盛，说白了"美国要做老大，那大家就都吃美国的消费增长和全球扩张红利"。 其路径是全世界的各种投资者都能通过美国的二级资本市场获得美国的扩张红利，并因为持仓问题在一级市场参与美国的扩张意志，从而驱动美元体系在全 球的决策配置。这点从经济学的角度去理解的话，就是国家综合实力实际上取决于其信用扩张基础上的融资能力，所以我们看到美债、美股、美国商品交易 所一起构成了庞大的全球性定价的美元池子，在这个池子里的是来自全球的资本在分享美国的红利，同时也被绑在了美国的金融体系之内，导致很多去美元 化的最后实际是从左手去了右手。 当然，造成逆差的原因还有很多，我们接下来就仔细分析下 一、 ...

在产品层面，Schafer指出，英伟达的机架级解决方案NVL72在单位功耗下的AI性能方面依然处于行业 领先地位，而新一代Vera Rubin(VR200)平台正按计划推进，预计将在2026财年第三季度实现量产爬 坡，随后更高端的VR300 Ultra有望在2027财年第三季度初期推出。 Schafer表示，云服务提供商的资本开支仍在持续上升，预计2026年全球云厂商资本开支将达到6500亿 美元，明显高于2025年超过4000亿美元的水平。同时，前沿大模型(LLM)规模仍以每年约10倍的速度增 长，推理类token的需求增速也超过5倍，这进一步推高了对高性能AI算力的需求。 Schafer进一步估算，Vera Rubin平台的平均售价有望比GB300高出40%至50%。作为参考，GB300单套 售价约为350万美元。基于此，Vera Rubin系列产品未来有望为英伟达带来约80亿美元的新增营收。 智通财经APP获悉，美国芯片巨头英伟达(NVDA.US)即将公布第四财季业绩，投行奥本海默预计，公司 本次财报有望交出高于市场预期的成绩，相关营收上行空间或在20亿至30亿美元之间。Schafer重申对 英伟达的" ...

【OpenAI正敲定1000亿美元巨额融资轮的首批投资承诺】 据两位知情人士透露，OpenAI正在敲定本轮融资中投资者的首批投资承诺，本轮融资若成功，在计入 投资金额后，OpenAI的估值可达8300亿美元，融资规模或达1000亿美元。据称，软银预计将以300亿美 元的投资领投本轮融资，且将在今年分三期，每期100亿美元进行投资。为OpenAI提供云服务的亚马逊 可能会投资多达500亿美元。 凤凰网财经讯 2月19日，美股三大指数集体低开，纳指跌0.51%，道指跌0.28%，标普500指数跌0.29%。 科技股普跌，特斯拉跌1%，苹果跌0.7%，英伟达跌0.5%。 公司消息 【黄仁勋：将在3月发布"世界前所未见"的全新芯片】 据报道，英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋在接受媒体采访时，对即将到来的GTC 2026大会进行预热，明确表 示将在会上揭晓"世界前所未见"的全新芯片，引发业界广泛关注。作为AI芯片领域的领军者，英伟达此 次重磅预告，被认为将进一步巩固其在AI基础设施领域的领先地位。 【Meta计划推出AI智能手表 剑指苹果、三星等巨头】 据报道，Meta计划于今年晚些时候推出一款具备健康追踪与AI功能的智能手表， ...

Market Overview - Major U.S. stock index futures are showing slight declines, with Dow futures down 0.12%, S&P 500 futures down 0.08%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.04% [1] Semiconductor Sector - Storage chip stocks are experiencing a pre-market rally, with SanDisk and Micron Technology both rising over 1% [2] Nvidia Developments - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang announced that the company has prepared several unprecedented new chips for GTC 2026, emphasizing the challenges of technological limits but expressing confidence in their engineering team [2] - Nvidia has sold its remaining 1.1 million shares of Arm Holdings, valued at approximately $156 million, while still holding a 20-year technology license from Arm [2][4] Meta Platforms - Meta has restarted its "Malibu 2" smartwatch project, which is expected to launch in 2026 with health tracking features and an integrated Meta AI assistant [2] OpenAI Financing - OpenAI is nearing the completion of a new funding round expected to exceed $100 billion, with a projected overall valuation surpassing $850 billion, up from an initial estimate of $830 billion [3] Rio Tinto Performance - Mining giant Rio Tinto reported a 2025 earnings forecast of $10.87 billion, slightly below market expectations of $11.03 billion, with EBITDA down 11% year-over-year due to declining iron ore prices [3] eBay Financials - eBay's Q4 2025 earnings exceeded expectations, with revenue of $3 billion, a 15% year-over-year increase, and an adjusted EPS of $1.41, surpassing the anticipated $1.35. The company also announced a $1.2 billion acquisition of Depop from Etsy [4] Silver Stocks - Silver stocks are showing strength, with Pan American Silver up over 4% and Hecla Mining rising nearly 2% [5] Google and Sea Partnership - Google and Southeast Asian tech group Sea have announced a strategic partnership to develop AI tools for Sea's e-commerce and gaming products, including an AI Agent shopping prototype for Shopee [5]

每经记者｜岳楚鹏 每经编辑｜金冥羽 兰素英 ① 【三大期指齐跌】截至发稿，道指期货跌0.12%、标普500指数期货跌0.08%、纳指期货跌0.04%。 ② 【存储芯片概念股普涨】存储芯片概念股盘前普涨。截至发稿，闪迪、美光科技均涨超1%。 ③【黄仁勋：为GTC 2026准备了多款前所未见的新芯片】当地时间2月18日，黄仁勋接受媒体采访时称："我们已经为GTC 2026准备了几款前所未见的全 新芯片。"他补充道："由于所有技术都已达到极限，所以没有什么是容易的。"但他强调："有了这样一支团队（由英伟达和SK海力士的内存工程师组 成），没有什么是不可能的。" ④ 【英伟达清仓Arm全部股份】当地时间2月18日，最新监管文件显示，英伟达已抛售所持有的最后110万股Arm控股股票（价值约1.56亿美元）。英伟达 仍持有Arm为期20年的技术授权，其核心产品Grace CPU正是基于Arm架构。截至发稿，Arm上涨0.12%。 ⑤ 【Meta重启智能手表计划，计划2026年推出】 当地时间2月18日，据媒体援引知情人士透露，Meta已重启其"Malibu 2"智能手表项目。知情人士补充 说，该设备将于今年晚些时候发布， ...

Market Overview - Major U.S. stock index futures are showing slight declines, with Dow futures down 0.12%, S&P 500 futures down 0.08%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.04% [1] Semiconductor Sector - Storage chip stocks are experiencing a pre-market rally, with SanDisk and Micron Technology both rising over 1% [2] Nvidia Developments - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang announced that the company has prepared several unprecedented new chips for GTC 2026, emphasizing the challenges of technological limits but expressing confidence in their engineering team [2] - Nvidia has sold its remaining 1.1 million shares of Arm Holdings, valued at approximately $156 million, while still holding a 20-year technology license from Arm [2][4] Meta Platforms - Meta has restarted its "Malibu 2" smartwatch project, which is expected to launch in 2026 with health tracking features and an integrated Meta AI assistant [2] OpenAI Financing - OpenAI is nearing the completion of a new funding round expected to exceed $100 billion, with a projected overall valuation surpassing $850 billion, up from an initial estimate of $830 billion [3] - The pre-funding valuation is expected to remain at $730 billion, with major strategic investors including Amazon, SoftBank, Nvidia, and Microsoft [3] Mining Sector - Rio Tinto's 2025 earnings report showed a basic profit of $10.87 billion, which is flat year-over-year but slightly below market expectations of $11.03 billion, leading to a decline of over 2% in its stock [3] eBay Performance - eBay's Q4 2025 earnings exceeded expectations, reporting revenue of $3 billion, a 15% year-over-year increase, and an adjusted EPS of $1.41, surpassing the anticipated $1.35 [4] - The company also announced the acquisition of the fashion marketplace Depop from Etsy for $1.2 billion [4] Silver Stocks - Silver stocks are showing strength, with Pan American Silver up over 4% and Hecla Mining rising nearly 2% [5] Google and Sea Partnership - Google and Sea have announced a strategic partnership to develop AI tools for Sea's e-commerce and gaming products, including exploring AI Agent shopping prototypes for Shopee [5]

Core Viewpoint - Generative AI has become a defining narrative in global capital markets, with companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google taking center stage, while Amazon remains relatively overlooked despite its significant AI infrastructure and capabilities [1][2]. Group 1: Market Perception of Amazon - Amazon is not perceived as a typical AI company due to its diversified AI strategy, which lacks the clear-cut, explosive narratives seen in Nvidia and Microsoft [3]. - The market has historically undervalued Amazon based on outdated narratives: its retail business is seen as low-margin and capital-intensive, while AWS faces growth concerns amid competition from Microsoft Azure and Google GCP [4]. Group 2: Amazon's AI Capabilities - Generative AI relies on a complex ecosystem involving computing power, data, distribution, and commercial viability, where Amazon possesses significant advantages [5]. - Amazon's AWS is positioned as a "monetization machine" in the AI landscape, transitioning from traditional IT outsourcing to a critical provider of computing resources for AI applications [6]. Group 3: AWS and Retail Synergy - AWS's neutrality and scale allow it to benefit from a variety of AI models, making it less dependent on the success of any single model [7]. - Amazon's retail operations generate vast amounts of data, enabling AI-driven efficiencies that can directly translate into profit margin improvements [8]. Group 4: Investment Timing and Valuation - The current investment question is not whether Amazon has AI capabilities, but whether the market will reprice its cash flow model as AI matures [10]. - Amazon's valuation remains lower than its AI infrastructure warrants, with the potential for significant profit margin expansion as AWS and retail operations leverage AI [11]. Group 5: Conclusion and Future Outlook - The market is transitioning from a phase of speculative AI investments to recognizing the value of companies that control computing power, data, and application scenarios, with Amazon positioned uniquely as both a legacy leader and a foundational player in the AI era [13]. - Amazon may not experience rapid short-term gains like Nvidia, but it offers a more stable long-term return in the AI landscape, making it an attractive investment opportunity as market rationality returns [14].

在全球内存供应紧张和人工智能应用强劲需求的背景下,股价大幅上涨,HBM芯片对于Nvidia等公司使用的先进处理器 至关重要。 《朝鲜日报》援引业内消息人士报道称,三星正在就其HBM4芯片的供应价格进行谈判,每颗芯片价格约为$700,较其 上一代HBM3E型号高出约20%–30%。 截至格林威治标准时间06:16,在首尔上市的三星股价飙升5.4%,创下190,900韩元的历史新高。 报道称,正在准备量产HBM4的SK海力士预计将设定类似价格。 三星电子 (KS:005930) 股价周四飙升至历史新高,此前当地媒体报道称,其下一代高带宽内存(HBM)芯片价格大幅上涨,提振 了这家韩国科技巨头及其竞争对手 SK海力士 (KS:000660) 的利润前景。 HBM和传统DRAM价格的上涨增强了芯片制造商的定价能力和利润率。 报道援引券商预测称,三星第一季度营业利润约为32万亿韩元($240亿),SK海力士超过28万亿韩元,这可能为两家公司 带来创纪录的季度收益。 报道补充称,三星本月早些时候开始量产HBM4,使其能够利用预计将持续到2026年的AI驱动内存热潮。 ...

对冲基金大佬Tepper去年四季度精准狙击AI存储芯片赛道，豪掷逾6亿美元重仓美光科技和韩国芯片ETF，今年已斩获约30%回报。全球内存短缺叠加 AI算力狂潮，其芯片押注与软件股暴跌形成冰火两重天。 加码押注内存芯片 Tepper对美光科技的投资显示出对AI基础设施的强烈信心。除了将股票持仓提升至4.28亿美元外，他还购买了名义价值7140万美元的美光看涨期权。 不过目前尚不清楚他是否已出售这些合约或合约到期时间。 全球内存短缺成为推动美光股价飙升的关键因素。作为AI系统所需计算机内存的主要生产商，美光直接受益于人工智能热潮带来的需求激增。 与此同时，Tepper新建了价值1.823亿美元的iShares MSCI韩国ETF（EWY）头寸。该ETF主要持有三星电子和SK海力士等芯片巨头，今年已飙升 34%，上周刚创下新高，吸引了寻求海外AI受益标的的投资者。 这些芯片相关投资的强劲表现与市场其他板块形成鲜明对比。软件股今年已大幅下挫，投资者担忧最新AI模型将冲击该行业依赖高收费的商业模式。 | T Filter | Columns Export | 1 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ineffectiveness of U.S. tariffs in undermining China's manufacturing strength, highlighting that China's industrial capabilities cannot be defeated by tax increases alone [1][9]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The U.S. initiated a sudden tariff war against China, imposing a 34% tariff on Chinese goods, which escalated to a maximum of 145%, leading to significant disruptions in bilateral trade [3][5]. - China's response to U.S. tariffs has been to match them equally, demonstrating resilience and a refusal to back down, which has resulted in a near standstill in trade [5][7]. Group 2: Economic Misjudgments - The U.S. made two major misjudgments: underestimating China's reliance on exports and overestimating China's fear of economic retaliation [7][9]. - The U.S. domestic market faced shortages and rising prices due to the tariffs, leading to public discontent and pressure on U.S. businesses [5][9]. Group 3: China's Industrial Strength - China's manufacturing capabilities are supported by a complete industrial chain and strong production capacity, making it difficult for the U.S. to weaken China's economic position through tariffs [11][12]. - In high-tech sectors, China has made significant advancements, particularly in conventional chip manufacturing, where it has become the largest global producer [11][12]. Group 4: Future Strategies - The article suggests that the U.S. must abandon its zero-sum mentality and recognize China's development as an opportunity for global economic growth rather than a threat [12]. - Cooperation and mutual development are emphasized as the path forward for both nations, rather than continued confrontation [12].