Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a bearish approach for unilateral trading, and suggests waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options trading [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market sentiment is fluctuating, but the rapid decline in domestic steel demand is expected to dominate the medium - term iron ore price. Since the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of domestic iron elements has remained loose, and the fundamentals of iron ore have changed significantly. It is expected that the iron ore price will mainly operate at a high level with a downward trend [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Logic Analysis**: Since December, global iron ore shipments have continued to increase steadily. The supply of domestic iron ore remains in a loose pattern. The domestic terminal steel demand has declined rapidly since the third quarter and is unlikely to improve significantly in the near future. Overseas demand for iron ore maintains high growth. Overall, the domestic steel demand decline is expected to lead the medium - term iron ore price, and the fundamentals of iron ore have changed [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a bearish approach for unilateral trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [3] Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis Supply Side - **Global Iron Ore Shipment**: Since 2025, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments is 31.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.7%/40 million tons. The supply of the four major global mines has increased by over 10 million tons year - on - year. In November, China imported 110.54 million tons of iron ore, and the cumulative import from January to November was 1.141 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 17 million tons [15] - **Non - mainstream Iron Ore Shipment**: The global shipment of non - mainstream iron ore has been at a high level year - on - year. The weekly average shipment of non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore is 5.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%/24 million tons [17] - **Port Inventory**: This week, the port inventory of imported iron ore increased slightly, the steel mill inventory decreased slightly, and the domestic total inventory of imported iron ore remained basically flat. Since September, the total domestic iron element inventory has increased by over 12 million tons, and the supply - demand fundamentals of iron ore have weakened [27] Demand Side - **Domestic Demand**: Since the third quarter of 2025, domestic iron ore demand has shown a mixed trend. Iron water and crude steel production have increased year - on - year, but the apparent demand for building materials and non - building materials has decreased year - on - year. The manufacturing steel demand has shifted from year - on - year growth to negative growth [29] - **Overseas Demand**: From January to October, overseas iron element consumption increased by 3.3%/27 million tons year - on - year. The overseas Indian crude steel production increased by 10%/12.6 million tons from January to October, and is expected to contribute an increment of 15 million tons for the whole year [32] Price and Spread - **Port Price**: The report presents the price trends of 62% Platts iron ore price index, Qingdao Port PB powder, and other products, as well as the spread between different grades of powder [37] - **Port Profit**: The report shows the import profit trends of PB powder, Carajas fines, and other products [39] - **Domestic and Overseas Price Difference**: It includes the price difference between SGX and DCE iron ore futures, and the premium rate of Singapore iron ore over domestic iron ore [45] - **Basis and Inter - period Spread**: The report presents the basis of the optimal deliverable against different contracts and the inter - period spreads [47]

研究所 黑色研发报告 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 783.5 | 777.0 | 6.5 | I01-I05 | 22.5 | 24.0 | -1.5 | | DCE05 | 761.0 | 753.0 | 8.0 | I05-I09 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 0.0 | | DCE09 | 739.5 | 731.5 | 8.0 | I09-I01 | -44.0 | -45.5 | 1.5 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | PB粉(60.8%) | 773 | 775 | -2 | 839 | 54 | 78 | 100 | | 纽曼粉 | 776 | 781 | -5 | 849 | 64 | 88 | 109 | | 麦克粉 | 774 | 774 | 0 | 855 | 70 | 94 | 115 | | 金布巴粉(60.5%) | 731 | 7 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - After the Central Economic Work Conference, the macro - positive factors faded, and pricing returned to fundamentals. Steel supply is reducing, but the recovery of steel mill profits may slow down the reduction speed. Demand is seasonally weak, and steel exports are expected to tighten. Steel inventories show different trends, with short - term prices fluctuating weakly [3]. - After macro events, trading logic returned to fundamentals. Iron ore supply from major mines is restricted, and steel mills have a need to replenish inventory. Iron ore demand is seasonally declining but is expected to rebound in January. Falling coking coal prices provide support, and the downside price space is limited [21]. - Coking coal supply has limited marginal changes, but due to pressure on steel mill profits and unexpected reduction in hot metal production, coking coal supply exceeds demand. Coke production decreased slightly last week due to environmental restrictions. With the decline in coking coal costs, coke prices are likely to continue to fall [31]. - The fundamentals of ferroalloys are weak, but news from the SASAC and the National Development and Reform Commission led to a price rebound today. However, price increases may stimulate enterprises to hedge and suppress prices [47]. - With the strengthening of new production capacity expectations, the expectation of soda ash oversupply is intensifying. The acceleration of glass cold - repair weakens the demand for soda ash. Although exports are high, high inventories restrict prices [65]. - From December to before the Spring Festival, some glass production lines are expected to undergo cold - repair, which may affect long - term pricing. Near - term contracts will follow the delivery logic, and currently, high intermediate inventories and weak end - market demand put pressure on spot prices [88]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel Price Data - On December 16, 2025, the closing prices of rebar contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3090, 3081, and 3112 yuan/ton respectively, and those of hot - rolled coil contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3254, 3246, and 3255 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - The rebar spot prices in China, Shanghai, Beijing, and Hangzhou were 3295, 3280, 3120, and 3300 yuan/ton respectively, and the hot - rolled coil spot prices in Shanghai, Lecong, and Shenyang were 3270, 3260, and 3180 yuan/ton respectively [9][11]. Ratio and Spread Data - The 01, 05, and 10 rebar/iron ore ratios were all 4, and the 01, 05, and 10 rebar/coke ratios were all 2 [18]. - The 01, 05, and 10 roll - to - rebar spreads were 164, 165, and 143 yuan/ton respectively, and the roll - to - rebar spot spreads in Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenyang were - 10, 210, and 0 yuan/ton respectively [15]. Iron Ore Price Data - On December 16, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore contracts 01, 05, and 09 were 783.5, 761, and 739.5 yuan/ton respectively. The 01, 05, and 09 basis were 1, 25, and 46.5 yuan/ton respectively [22]. - The prices of Rizhao PB powder, Rizhao Carajás fines, and Rizhao Super Special were 779, 856, and 666 yuan/ton respectively [22]. Fundamental Data - The daily average hot metal production was 229.2 tons, 45 - port throughput was 319.19 tons, and the apparent demand for five major steel products was 840 tons [25]. - Global shipments were 3592.5 tons, Australia - Brazil shipments were 2889.3 tons, and 45 - port arrivals were 2723.4 tons [25]. - The 45 - port inventory was 15431.42 tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills was 8834.2 tons [25]. Coal and Coke Price Data - The 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads of coking coal were 170.5, - 76.5, and - 94 yuan/ton respectively, and those of coke were 234, - 78.5, and - 155.5 yuan/ton respectively [35]. - The spot price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1500 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Rizhao quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1430 yuan/ton [38]. Ratio and Profit Data - The main mine - to - coke ratio was 0.503, the main rebar - to - coke ratio was 2.034, and the main coke - to - coal ratio was 1.524 [35]. - The on - the - spot coking profit was 21 yuan/ton, and the Mongolian coal import profit (long - term agreement) was 213 yuan/ton [38]. Ferroalloys Price Data - The silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 18 yuan/ton, and the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 154 yuan/ton [48][49]. - The spot prices of silicon - iron in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Qinghai were 5250, 5280, and 5200 yuan/ton respectively, and the spot prices of silicon - manganese in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Guizhou were 5490, 5540, and 5550 yuan/ton respectively [48][49]. Cost and Inventory Data - The price of semi - coke small materials was 800 yuan/ton, and the price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal was 737 yuan/ton [48]. - The silicon - iron warehouse receipts were 13068, and the silicon - manganese warehouse receipts were 25032 [48][50]. Soda Ash Price Data - On December 16, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash contracts 05, 09, and 01 were 1170, 1221, and 1133 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads were - 51, 88, and - 37 yuan/ton respectively [66]. - The heavy - soda market prices in North China, South China, and East China were 1300, 1400, and 1250 yuan/ton respectively [66]. Fundamental Data - In October, soda ash exports exceeded 210,000 tons, maintaining a high level [65]. - The upper - and middle - stream inventories were generally high, restricting soda ash prices [65]. Glass Price Data - On December 16, 2025, the closing prices of glass contracts 05, 09, and 01 were 1038, 1117, and 946 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads were - 79, 171, and - 92 yuan/ton respectively [89]. - The 01 - contract basis in Shahe and Hubei was 64 and 140 yuan/ton respectively [89]. Sales and Production Data - On December 12, 2025, the sales - to - production ratios in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China were 59, 90, 89, and 102 respectively [90].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 16 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 市场情绪回暖，钢矿震荡回升 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡企稳，录得 0.55%日涨幅，量仓收缩。现阶段， 低供应格局给予钢价支撑，但需求表现同样疲弱，基本面并无好转，淡 季钢价继续承压运行，相对利好则是估值偏低与政策预期，预期现实博 弈下钢价延续低位震荡运行态势，关注钢厂生产情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡走高，录得 0.68%日涨幅，量仓收缩。目前来 看，热卷供需两端均在走弱，产业矛盾缓解有限，价格继续承压运行， 相对利好 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is currently in a weak and volatile state due to suppressed demand during the off - season. The prices of steel products, raw materials, and related futures contracts have generally declined. However, the fundamentals of finished steel are not under significant pressure, and the downward space for prices is limited. For different varieties: - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They show production cuts and inventory reduction. The demand for rebar has declined significantly, while the demand for hot - rolled coil shows certain resilience. Rebar should continue to focus on the support around 3000 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil should focus on whether it can stabilize around 3200 yuan/ton [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply has increased, the demand has continued to decline, and port inventory has reached a new high. The price is under overall pressure, and the support below is temporarily around 730 - 750 yuan/ton [4]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The overall supply has increased slightly, and the downstream transactions have improved. The coking plant and port coking coal inventories have accumulated, suppressing prices. After the second round of coke price cuts, there is still an expectation of further cuts, but the downward space for the disk price is limited. Coking coal should focus on the support around 1000 yuan/ton [5]. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 01 Market Review - **Price Changes**: Raw material price drops have dragged down steel prices. Spot and futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have generally declined, and the prices of imported iron ore and coke have also decreased. The basis of rebar has slightly increased [9]. - **Inventory Changes**: The five major steel products have continued to reduce inventory, with significant reduction in rebar social inventory and a slight decrease in factory inventory. The reduction in hot - rolled coil inventory has accelerated [9]. 02 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Rebar production has decreased significantly, with both blast furnace and electric furnace production cuts. The national hot - rolled coil production has also decreased, and the blast furnace operating rate has decreased month - on - month, while the electric furnace operating rate has remained stable. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil have decreased month - on - month [12][17][22]. - **Demand**: The demand for rebar and hot - rolled coil has both declined slightly, with a more obvious decline in rebar demand [31]. - **Inventory**: Rebar has continued to reduce inventory, with factory and social inventories both falling. Hot - rolled coil has slightly reduced inventory, with factory inventory increasing and social inventory decreasing [36][40]. - **Downstream Market**: In the real estate market, the transaction volume of commercial housing and the land market have both increased month - on - month. In the automotive market, the production and sales in November have continued to grow both month - on - month and year - on - year [45][48]. 03 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The arrival volume of iron ore at ports has increased significantly month - on - month, while the shipments from Australia and Brazil have decreased slightly [53]. - **Demand**: The daily production of hot metal has continued to decline, and the port ore handling volume has remained stable [59]. - **Inventory**: The iron ore port inventory has reached a new high, while the steel enterprise iron ore inventory has decreased [64]. 04 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of domestic coking mines has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance has remained at a relatively high level [71]. - **Demand**: The coking coal auction transaction rate has increased, but the daily production of hot metal has continued to decline, and the steel mill replenishment power is limited [76]. - **Inventory**: The port coking coal inventory has continued to increase, and the coking plant inventory has rebounded. The coke port inventory has continued to decline, and the coking plant inventory has rebounded [84][90]. - **Spot Price**: The second round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and the game between steel and coke enterprises continues [96]. 05 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil has both widened, and the 1 - 5 spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil have both slightly widened. The coil - to - rebar spread has fluctuated narrowly, and the 1 - 5 spread of coking coal has slightly widened [102][106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global iron ore demand growth in 2026 is expected to remain moderate. The overseas market shows some resilience, but China's demand outlook is weak due to insufficient growth momentum in domestic pig iron production and slow recovery of steel demand in the real - estate sector [3][18][50]. - The global iron ore production in 2026 is expected to increase by 1.3%. The increments mainly come from the launch of the Simandou project in Guinea, production recovery and expansion of major mines in Australia and Brazil [3][21][50]. - In 2026, the global iron ore market is expected to maintain a loose supply - demand pattern. With weak demand and continuous supply growth, the iron ore price is under pressure, and its center may continue to decline, with a reference range of 600 - 880 yuan/ton [3][51]. 3. Section - by - section Summaries 3.1. Market Review - In early 2025, iron ore prices rose strongly. From January to February, the main contract reached the annual high of 844 yuan/ton, driven by macro - policy expectations, seasonal reduction of overseas ore shipments, and demand support from blast furnace复产 after the Spring Festival [7]. - In the second quarter, the market weakened significantly. In March, the slow recovery of terminal demand, US steel tariffs, and anti - dumping in Southeast Asia increased steel export pressure. In April, the "reciprocal tariff" policy in the US caused market panic, leading to a sharp decline in iron ore prices [7]. - In July, there was a strong reversal. The "anti - involution" policy raised expectations of coking coal contraction, and the high - level daily iron - water production provided strong support. However, the continuous narrowing of steel mill profits foreshadowed subsequent price drops [7]. - Since August, iron ore has been oscillating at a high level with a gradually downward center. After the National Day holiday, demand weakened, iron - water production decreased, and supply increased, leading to rising port inventories and weakening prices [7]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Domestic Iron Ore Demand Better than the Same Period - China's steel production was generally at a high level, with iron - water production being high in the first half and low in the second half. As of November, the average daily iron - water production of 247 steel mills was about 238 tons/day, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The blast furnace operating rate was in the 80% - 85% range [10]. - Long - product output declined more significantly due to the real - estate industry, while plate output decreased less due to support from the automotive, shipbuilding, and manufacturing industries and exports [10]. - China's steel exports reached a record high in 2025. From January to November, the cumulative steel export volume was 10771 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%, and the billet export volume in the first ten months increased by 157% [11]. - Overseas, the total iron ore demand increased in 2025 but was highly differentiated. India was the main growth driver, while demand in Japan, South Korea, and some European countries decreased [14]. 3.2.2. Overseas Ore Shipments Maintained an Upward Trend - In 2025, China's iron ore imports increased slightly. From January to November, the cumulative import volume was 1.139 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The import rhythm accelerated in the second half of the year [19]. - The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea was successfully launched in 2025, and the first shipment was made in December. The project has an annual capacity of 1.2 billion tons and is expected to significantly increase production in 2026 [19]. - Global iron ore shipments were generally at a high level. From January to the 49th week, the cumulative shipments from Australia and Brazil increased by 1.1% year - on - year. Mainstream mines' shipments to China and arrivals increased significantly in the second half of the year [20]. 3.2.3. Iron Ore Port Inventories - Port inventories were generally at a high level in 2025, first decreasing and then increasing. At the beginning of the year, inventories were about 150 million tons. They decreased in the first half due to low overseas shipments and high domestic consumption, and then increased in the second half due to strong supply and weakening demand [31]. 3.2.4. Steel Mill Inventories - Steel mills adopted a cautious strategy of "actively reducing inventories and maintaining low levels" in 2025. They were cautious in raw material procurement, especially in the second half of the year when profits were compressed [43]. - Steel mills tended to replenish inventories before long holidays to ensure production continuity. After the holidays, inventory reduction often led to weakening iron ore prices [43]. 3.2.5. Domestic Mine Production - Domestic mine production contracted in 2025. From January to October, the cumulative iron ore output was 851.73 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2%. Production in Hebei and Liaoning decreased significantly [45]. - Some new projects in 2025 are expected to contribute about 6.565 million tons of new iron concentrate output, but they are still far from the goals of the "Cornerstone Plan" [45]. 3.2.6. Shipping Freight - Iron ore shipping freight increased significantly in 2025, showing a pattern of being weak at first and then strong with wide fluctuations. By December 11, the freight from Dampier, Australia to Qingdao increased by 64% compared to the beginning of the year, and that from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao increased by 33% [47]. 3.3. Market Outlook - In 2026, global iron ore demand growth is expected to be moderate. China's demand is weak, while overseas demand has some resilience [50]. - Global iron ore production in 2026 is expected to increase by 1.3%, with increments mainly from the Simandou project and production expansion of major mines in Australia and Brazil [50]. - The global iron ore market is expected to maintain a loose supply - demand pattern in 2026. With weak demand and continuous supply growth, the iron ore price is under pressure, and its center may continue to decline, with a reference range of 600 - 880 yuan/ton [51].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - No explicit core view is presented in the provided text. It mainly offers data on iron ore prices, including spot prices of various iron ore varieties, futures contract prices, and related price changes. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore Spot Prices - **Australian Mainstream Ore**: Newman powder is priced at 775, down 4 daily and 5 weekly; PB powder at 778, down 4 daily and 5 weekly; Mac powder at 771, unchanged daily and down 2 weekly; Jinbuba at 731, down 4 daily and 5 weekly; Mixed powder at 720, down 2 daily and 7 weekly; Super Special powder at 665, down 6 daily and 3 weekly; Carajás powder at 855, down 10 daily and 10 weekly [1]. - **Brazilian Mainstream Ore**: Brazilian Blend at 809, down 4 daily and 5 weekly; Brazilian Coarse IOC6 at 748, down 4 daily and 5 weekly; Brazilian Coarse SSFG at 753, down 4 daily and 5 weekly [1]. - **Other Ores**: Ukrainian Concentrate at 855, down 7 daily and 10 weekly; 61% Indian powder at 720, down 4 daily and 5 weekly; Karara Concentrate at 855, down 7 daily and 10 weekly; Roy Hill powder at 765, down 4 daily and 5 weekly; KUMBA powder at 837, down 4 daily and 5 weekly; 57% Indian powder at 600, down 6 daily and 3 weekly; Atlas powder at 715, down 2 daily and 7 weekly; Tangshan Iron Concentrate at 969, down 2 daily and 27 weekly [1]. Iron Ore Futures Prices - **DCE Contracts**: i2601 at 777.0, down 5.5 daily and 1.5 weekly; i2605 at 753.0, down 7.5 daily and 7.5 weekly; i2609 at 731.5, down 6.5 daily and 5.5 weekly [1]. - **SGX Contracts**: FE01 at 101.98, up 0.54 daily and down 1.41 weekly; FE05 at 99.72, up 0.44 daily and down 1.01 weekly; FE09 at 97.56, up 0.46 daily and down 0.94 weekly [1]. Other Price - Related Information - **Import Profits**: For example, Newman powder's import profit is -7.13; PB powder's is -16.95; Mac powder's is 21.66; Jinbuba's is 20.06 [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: For i2601, the monthly spread is -45.5, with a daily change of -5.3 and a weekly change of -9.3; for i2605, it's 24.0, with a daily change of -3.3 and a weekly change of -3.3; for i2609, it's 21.5, with a daily change of -4.3 and a weekly change of -5.3 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradiction of black commodities in 2026 lies in the game between the slow recovery of steel demand and the relatively loose supply of furnace materials. Demand is a slow - changing variable, and its growth mainly relies on manufacturing exports. The supply of iron ore is expected to increase, and the pattern next year is likely a process of low - cost replacing high - cost. The supply rhythm of coking coal is determined by policy changes, and macro variables may amplify market sentiment and price fluctuations [3]. - In 2026, steel demand may increase slightly by 1.5%. Domestic demand is stable, and foreign demand is expected to increase. Supply will follow the demand recovery. The steel price is expected to fluctuate within a range [33][86][87]. - Iron ore will continue its capacity expansion process. The current high valuation may face challenges in the first half of next year. The supply increment of mainstream mines will be significant, but there are uncertainties in the capacity - climbing rhythm. The global iron ore demand may increase slightly, but the oversupply situation is difficult to reverse [6][138]. - The coal - coke market may show a tight - balance pattern. The supply of coking coal will show a "safety - guarantee and supply - guarantee" two - step rhythm, and imports may impact the domestic market. Coke production will be driven by cost and demand [7][191]. - The silicon - iron and manganese - silicon markets will continue the situation of over - capacity. The price is mainly determined by cost differences in the short - term and supply - demand in the long - term. The price is expected to fluctuate with cost support and high - inventory suppression [283][285]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 Black Commodity Price Trend Review - The black commodity market in 2025 showed the characteristics of "weak supply and demand of steel, and cost first weak then strong". The iron ore had a 2% increase, while other varieties had a decline of 4% - 14%. The market can be divided into four stages: narrow - range oscillation from January to February, overall weakness from March to May, V - shaped reversal from June to July, and oscillation from August to November [10]. 3.2 2025 Steel Demand Calibration - Different institutions' data on molten iron and scrap steel consumption in 2025 showed large differences. Using the iron ore balance sheet to calculate molten iron production as the benchmark, the total demand in 2025 was basically the same as last year [15][27][30]. 3.3 2026 Steel Operation Logic 3.3.1 Demand Side - In 2026, steel demand may increase by 1.5%. Domestic demand: infrastructure offsets the decline of real estate, and the steel consumption is controllable. Real estate's steel - consumption ratio has narrowed significantly. Infrastructure investment structure is transforming, and the steel - consumption growth rate may decline to about 5%. Manufacturing: domestic consumption may improve, and foreign demand will increase through exports. Steel exports will remain high [33]. 3.3.2 Supply Side - Globally, steel production is expected to grow by 2% in 2026. In China, supply is expected to increase by 1.4% following the demand recovery, and the steel variety structure reflects the economic transformation [71][78]. 3.3.3 Steel Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2026, domestic steel demand is expected to increase by 1.6%, and exports will remain high. Supply is expected to increase by 1.5%, with molten iron having a larger supply increase than scrap steel [83][84][85]. 3.3.4 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - In 2026, the core contradiction of steel is between the slow recovery of demand and the cost loosening of furnace materials. Steel price is expected to oscillate within a range. The investment strategy is to go long near the iron ore cost line and go short when the electric - arc furnace is profitable during peak - electricity periods [86][87][88]. 3.4 2026 Iron Ore Operation Logic 3.4.1 Supply - Mainstream mines: the four major mines will contribute the main supply increment in 2026. Fortescue contributed the main increment in 2025. The production of each mine has different performances, and new projects are in progress [90][97][110]. - Non - mainstream and domestic mines: overseas non - mainstream mines' production is expected to increase by about 25 million tons in 2026. Domestic mines' production is expected to be basically the same as in 2025. There is a risk that the capacity - climbing rhythm of some projects may be lower than expected [126][130][133]. 3.4.2 Demand and Supply - Demand Balance - Global iron ore demand is expected to increase slightly in 2026, but the oversupply situation will be more obvious, with a supply - demand difference of over 20 million tons [134][136]. 3.4.3 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - Iron ore will continue capacity expansion in 2026. The high valuation may face challenges in the first half of the year, but macro factors will support the valuation. The price trend may repeat the V - shaped reversal of this year [138]. 3.5 2026 Coal - Coke Operation Logic 3.5.1 Supply Outlook - Domestic: coking coal production in 2026 is expected to show a "safety - guarantee and supply - guarantee" two - step rhythm, with a year - on - year micro - increase of 0.5% [148]. - Overseas: Mongolian and Russian coal may impact the domestic market. Mongolian coal imports are expected to increase, but there is a risk of expectation difference. Russian coal imports are restricted by factors such as transportation capacity and cost [152][156][166]. 3.5.2 Coke - Backward coke - oven capacities will be phased out. The coke market will be driven by cost and demand, and the supply - demand will continue the tight - balance situation [175][176]. 3.5.3 Demand Outlook - In 2026, the demand for coal - coke will be supported by molten iron production. The game between weak reality and strong expectation and the inflection point of the replenishment cycle will increase price volatility [183]. 3.5.4 2026 Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand game of coal - coke will enter a normal stage in 2026. The domestic coking coal supply will be adjusted by policy, and imports will be an important factor [187]. 3.5.5 2026 Coal - Coke Conclusion and Investment Outlook - The coal - coke price bottom may have been tested in 2025. The market will show a tight - balance pattern, with both total and structural contradictions. The investment should focus on the rhythm [191]. 3.6 2026 Silicon - Iron and Manganese - Silicon Operation Logic 3.6.1 2025 Manganese - Silicon Price Trend Review - The manganese - silicon market in 2025 showed a V - shaped trend, with four stages: rising and then falling in the first stage, oscillating downward in the second stage, rising steadily in the third stage, and oscillating in the fourth stage [193]. 3.6.2 2025 Silicon - Iron Price Trend Review - The silicon - iron market in 2025 had a downward - moving price center, with three stages: falling in the first stage, rising and then falling in the second stage, and oscillating in the third stage [201]. 3.6.3 Supply Side - Manganese - silicon: the supply is in an over - capacity situation. The production is concentrated in the north, and the south is under operating pressure. The future capacity will continue to gather in the main production areas [208][209][221]. - Silicon - iron: the capacity expansion rate has slowed down, but there is still over - capacity. The production is concentrated in the northwest, and the elimination and replacement of backward capacity will be the mainstream [222][223][238]. 3.6.4 Demand Side - The demand for ferroalloys is mainly driven by steel production. In 2026, steel production is expected to increase, and the demand for ferroalloys will be slightly boosted. The export of ferroalloys is under pressure [239][240][252]. 3.6.5 Cost and Inventory - Cost: the cost of manganese - silicon is mainly affected by manganese ore, electricity, and chemical coke prices. The cost of silicon - iron first decreases and then increases [254][271][272]. - Inventory: the manganese - silicon inventory is high, and the inventory inflection point may be postponed. The silicon - iron inventory is relatively healthy [274]. 3.6.6 2025 Annual Silicon - Iron and Manganese - Silicon Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply of ferroalloys is affected by profit and policy. The demand is mainly determined by steel production. In 2026, the supply and demand of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon will continue to be affected by over - capacity [277][278][280]. 3.6.7 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - In 2026, the price of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon will follow the logic of "short - term cost determines the direction, long - term supply - demand determines the center". The investment strategy is to focus on cost and supply - demand changes, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [282][283][285].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures and Spot Price Changes - DCE01 decreased from 782.5 to 777.0, a drop of 5.5; DCE05 decreased from 760.5 to 753.0, a drop of 7.5; DCE09 decreased from 738.0 to 731.5, a drop of 6.5 [2] - Among spot prices, Newman powder increased by 2 to 781, Mac powder increased by 1 to 774, etc [2] Basis and Spread - The basis of the best deliverable against the 01 contract for some varieties: PB powder was 51, Newman powder was 64, etc [2] - The spread between some spot varieties: the spread between Carajás fines and PB powder remained unchanged at 83, etc [2] Import Profit and Price Index - Import profit of some varieties: Carajás fines increased from -22 to -19, Newman powder increased from 30 to 33, etc [2] - The Platts 62% iron ore price increased by 0.2 to 105.2, the 65% price increased by 0.2 to 117.7, and the 58% price decreased by 0.1 to 91.8 [2] Other Price Differences - The difference between SGX and DCE contracts: SGX main - DCE01 increased from 1.0 to 1.3, SGX main - DCE05 increased from 3.9 to 4.1 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints - **Rebar**: The main contract price of rebar rebounded from the bottom, with a daily increase of 0.13%, and both trading volume and open interest expanded. Currently, the low - supply pattern supports steel prices, but demand is weak, and the fundamentals have not improved substantially. Steel prices in the off - season are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factors are the low valuation and policy expectations. Steel prices are expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom under the game between expectations and reality. Attention should be paid to changes in steel mill production [5][38]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated, with a daily decline of 0.15%, and both trading volume and open interest expanded. At present, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have weakened, the industrial contradiction has not been alleviated, and the inventory reduction pressure is relatively large, so the price of hot - rolled coils continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation. Under the weak reality pattern, hot - rolled coils will continue the weakly oscillating operation trend. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [5][38]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price of iron ore oscillated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.92%, and both trading volume and open interest expanded. Currently, iron ore demand continues to weaken, while supply remains at a high level. The fundamentals of the iron ore market are weak, and iron ore prices are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factor is that the structural contradiction in the spot market remains unresolved. It is expected that iron ore prices will continue the high - level oscillating operation trend. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [5][39]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **National Economic Situation in November**: The added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide increased by 4.8% year - on - year and 0.44% month - on - month. The added value of the mining industry increased by 6.3% year - on - year, the manufacturing industry increased by 4.6%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water increased by 4.3%. The added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 7.7% year - on - year, and the high - tech manufacturing industry increased by 8.4%. The manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the business production and operation activity expectation index was 53.1%, up 0.3 percentage points. From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide was 5950.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [7]. - **Real Estate Development Investment from January to November**: The national real estate development investment was 7859.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The investment in residential buildings was 6043.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.0%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. The new construction area was 534.57 million square meters, a decrease of 20.5%, and the completed area was 394.54 million square meters, a decrease of 18.0% [8]. - **Australia's Anti - dumping Review of Chinese Rebar**: Australia's Anti - Dumping Commission postponed the release of the basic facts report and final - ruling suggestions on the anti - dumping review of steel reinforcing bars imported from Baowu Group Echeng Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. It is expected to complete the basic facts report by December 23, 2025, and submit the final - ruling report to the Australian Minister of Industry and Science by February 16, 2026 [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The spot price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) in Shanghai was 3240 yuan, in Tianjin was 3150 yuan, and the national average price was 3289 yuan. The spot price of hot - rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) in Shanghai was 3250 yuan, in Tianjin was 3170 yuan, and the national average price was 3285 yuan. The price of Tangshan steel billet (Q235) was 2940 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) was 2080 yuan. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 10 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1160 yuan [10]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of PB fines at Shandong ports was 772 yuan, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) was 773 yuan, the Australian freight was 10.11 yuan, the Brazilian freight was 22.03 yuan, the SGX swap (current month) was 106.05, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 105.20 [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price of the active contract was 3074 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.13%. The highest price was 3086 yuan, the lowest price was 3031 yuan, the trading volume was 1,232,643 lots (an increase of 258,307 lots), and the open interest was 1,627,666 lots (an increase of 20,609 lots) [14]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The closing price of the active contract was 3233 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.15%. The highest price was 3247 yuan, the lowest price was 3194 yuan, the trading volume was 706,855 lots (an increase of 218,669 lots), and the open interest was 1,224,554 lots (an increase of 34,067 lots) [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the active contract was 753.0 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.92%. The highest price was 760.5 yuan, the lowest price was 748.0 yuan, the trading volume was 367,137 lots (an increase of 123,572 lots), and the open interest was 469,396 lots (an increase of 3,908 lots) [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: There are charts showing the weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil, including the inventory of steel mills and social inventory [17][19]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: There are charts showing the inventory of 45 ports in China, the inventory of 247 steel mills, and the inventory of domestic mine iron concentrate [22][27]. - **Steel Mill Production**: There are charts showing the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss of 75 building materials independent electric arc - furnace steel mills [36][32]. 3.5后市研判 (Translated as Future Outlook) - **Rebar**: Supply and demand continue to weaken. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 10.53 tons, and demand decreased by 13.89 tons. Low - supply supports steel prices, but weak demand still exerts pressure. With low valuation and policy expectations, steel prices will continue to oscillate to find the bottom. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [38]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The supply - demand pattern remains weak. The weekly output decreased by 5.60 tons, and demand is weak. Although the output of cold - rolled products in the main downstream is rising, there are concerns about external demand due to policy disturbances. With high inventory and low valuation, hot - rolled coils will continue the weakly oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [38]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern changes little. Ore demand is weak, and supply is at a high level. Although there is a structural contradiction in the spot market, iron ore prices will continue the high - level oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [39].