Core Insights - The tourism market is expected to see a strong start in 2026, with domestic travel during the New Year holiday projected to increase by approximately 5% in terms of the number of trips and 6% in total spending compared to the 2024 New Year holiday [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Domestic tourism performance aligns with expectations, while inbound and outbound travel numbers have exceeded forecasts [1] - Duty-free sales have shown significant growth, with offshore duty-free sales increasing by about 50% compared to the 2024 New Year holiday [1] - Hotel occupancy rates have improved, although prices still show a gap compared to 2024 [1] Group 2: Sector Highlights - Scenic spots have generally performed well, with prominent mountainous scenic areas standing out [1] - The upcoming Spring Festival, with a 9-day holiday, is expected to further enhance travel enthusiasm, indicating a positive outlook for the tourism market [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the recovery of service consumption driven by the resurgence of travel during the New Year holiday, which has become the main force for domestic demand recovery [1] - The report highlights the optimistic outlook for the development of overseas business in the consumer sector by 2026, alongside a focus on high-dividend quality companies during market style shifts [1] - The report notes that the 2026 policy direction will significantly boost consumption, with a particular emphasis on experiential service consumption as a key growth area [1] Group 2 - During the New Year holiday, transportation data indicates a total of 590 million people traveled across regions, with an average of 198 million daily, marking a 19.5% year-on-year increase [1] - Railway passenger volume is expected to reach 48.22 million, a 53.1% increase year-on-year, while road travel is projected at 540 million, up 15.5% [1] - The report mentions that inbound tourism is continuing to grow, with ticket bookings for inbound travel during the New Year holiday increasing by 110% year-on-year [2] Group 3 - The first batch of national subsidies for 2026 has been issued, with 62.5 billion yuan allocated to support the replacement of consumer goods, benefiting categories such as air conditioners and refrigerators [3] - Midea has initiated a price increase for air conditioners, implementing a tiered pricing strategy with a 2% increase on January 3 and an additional 4% on January 5 [3] - The report indicates that Midea's price increase is a response to rising copper costs and aims to improve the competitive landscape in the air conditioning industry [3] Group 4 - CES 2026 is set to take place from January 6 to 9, 2026, in Las Vegas, showcasing Chinese technology consumer products transitioning from innovative to mainstream [4] - The focus will be on smart home devices, electric vehicles, and various consumer electronics, with particular attention to stair-climbing vacuum cleaners for the European and American markets [4]

为进一步推动非物质文化遗产与旅游深度融合发展，培育壮大"非遗+旅游"新业态、新模式、新场景， 省文化和旅游厅于2025年11月组织开展了山东省非遗特色景区(街区)和非遗特色酒店(民宿)创新实践案 例推荐工作。烟台市广泛发动，积极组织申报，经专家推荐、社会公示等程序，烟台市四单位凭借沉浸 式、体验式、互动式的非遗旅游场景，内涵丰富、特色鲜明的非遗旅游产品，脱颖而出，成功入选。 近年来，烟台市积极开展非遗进景区、进酒店、进场站、进校园等"非遗七进"活动，尤其鼓励非遗与旅 游景区(街区)和特色酒店(民宿)深入融合，积极培育壮大"非遗+旅游"新业态，取得显著成效。蓬莱阁庙 会、"八仙手造馆"和"八仙传说"IP系列演艺活动等沉浸式体验项目的推出，增强了旅游景区的吸引力， 奇山所城历史文化街区更以"非遗一条街"为核心，聚集16个可深度体验的非遗代表性项目，通过"展览 +工坊+课堂"三位一体模式，让游客近距离感受烟台非遗的独特魅力和烟台深厚的文化底蕴。部分酒店 (民宿)通过增加非遗元素，制造非遗体验场景，增加了酒店的文化内涵，增强了游客的体验感和吸引 力。 通讯员旅宣齐鲁晚报.齐鲁壹点秦雪丽 从烟台市文化和旅游局获悉，近日 ...

Core Insights - The New Year's holiday this year saw a significant increase in travel and consumption, with a recovery rate surpassing that of the previous National Day holiday in 2019, indicating a strong start for the tourism and retail sectors in 2026 [1][2][3] Group 1: Travel Trends - The number of travelers during the New Year's holiday (January 1-3) increased by 17.9% year-on-year, with a notable expansion in travel radius, surpassing the growth rates of the 2025 May Day and National Day holidays [5][6][31] - The travel methods favored by tourists included self-driving and rental cars, with rental bookings increasing by over 120% compared to the previous year [6][34] - The inbound tourism sector maintained strong growth, with foreign entry and exit numbers rising by 29.8% year-on-year, and ticket bookings for inbound tourism increasing by 110% [3][13][37] Group 2: Consumption Patterns - Total domestic travel expenditure reached 847.89 billion yuan during the holiday, with a recovery rate of 115.1% compared to 2019, although per capita spending showed a slight decline [15][41] - Retail and dining sectors experienced moderate growth, with notable increases in sales and customer traffic in various provinces, such as Tianjin and Hubei, where retail and dining revenues grew by 9.9% and 6.97% respectively [17][43] - The film industry saw a significant rebound, with box office revenues increasing by 141% year-on-year, although average ticket prices fell slightly compared to 2025 [16][42] Group 3: Regional Highlights - Hainan province experienced a robust tourism surge, with visitor numbers increasing by 25.2% and total tourism expenditure rising by 28.9% during the holiday [14][40] - The performance of the retail sector varied by region, with provinces like Hunan and Beijing leading in growth rates of 16.9% and 16.3% respectively [53] - The holiday also saw a strong demand for local dining and entertainment, with significant increases in pre-orders for New Year's Eve dining packages [55]

Group 1: Overall Market Performance - Hangzhou's cultural tourism market experienced a significant boost during the 2026 New Year's holiday, attracting 6.6019 million visitors and generating ticket revenue of 79.9778 million yuan, with a 15.9% year-on-year increase in visitors from outside the city [1] - The average hotel booking volume in Hangzhou surged by 280% year-on-year on New Year's Day, with overnight visitors reaching 1.032 million, marking a 7.1% increase [2] Group 2: Consumer Trends and Preferences - The search volume for "New Year travel" increased by 125% year-on-year, with the post-00s demographic making up 39% of travelers, indicating a strong preference for experiential and ceremonial activities [3] - Personalized cross-year packages offered by local inns, featuring activities like bonfire parties and tea gatherings, achieved an average occupancy rate of 75.76% [2] Group 3: Cultural and Entertainment Activities - Various cultural events and markets, such as the "New Year Treasure Hunt" and traditional performances, attracted over 90,000 participants, showcasing the city's rich cultural heritage [4] - The integration of food, non-heritage activities, and local markets created a vibrant atmosphere, enhancing the overall visitor experience during the holiday [4] Group 4: Winter Sports and Activities - The cold weather and snowfall led to a surge in winter sports tourism, with ski resorts in nearby areas seeing a 930% increase in orders, while local ski venues also performed well [5] - Hangzhou's ice and snow amusement parks received approximately 33,000 visitors during the holiday, reflecting the growing popularity of winter activities [5]

Group 1 - The chief strategist of Guojin Securities, Miao Yiling, predicts that the ROE of the non-financial real estate sector in A-shares will increase from 7.2% to 7.9% by 2026, indicating a shift from a "low return" phase to a higher profitability rhythm [1] - Miao suggests four main investment lines: industrial resource products, equipment exports, consumer recovery, and non-bank financials, with a focus on tracking the demand for aluminum, copper, steel, and coal driven by power system construction [1] - In overseas markets, the U.S. and Europe are experiencing characteristics such as "investment exceeding consumption," profit differentiation among large and small enterprises, declining employment, and slowing wage growth, which provide a foundation for a sustained interest rate cut cycle [1] Group 2 - On the domestic consumption front, the drag of housing prices on household spending has diminished, with an increase in foreign tourists due to trade settlement rate recovery and visa-free entry, leading to improved net profit margins in sectors like aviation, hotels, duty-free, and food and beverage [2] - Financially, there is a shift of household savings towards "fixed income+" products, with pension and insurance funds continuously increasing their equity allocations; policy adjustments to lower insurance risk factors and relax brokerage leverage will resonate with the non-bank sector and ROE recovery [2]

Group 1: Transportation and Travel - On New Year's Eve 2025, Guangzhou's metro system set a national record with a total passenger volume of 14.093 million, surpassing the previous record of 13.5 million set in 2024 [1][2] - The Baiyun Airport achieved a historic annual passenger throughput of over 80 million, with international travelers exceeding 16.6 million, marking a significant increase from 76.369 million in 2024 [1] - During the New Year holiday, Guangzhou became the most popular destination for flight bookings, with hotel reservations increasing nearly threefold compared to the previous year [1][3] Group 2: Consumer Market and Economic Growth - Guangzhou's consumer market saw a 15.7% increase during the three-day New Year holiday, driven by various promotional policies and activities, with notable growth in beverages (110%), communication devices (85.6%), cosmetics (55.4%), and clothing (18.9%) [3] - The city's "trade-in" program for consumer goods generated sales of 61.59 billion, with automotive sales being a significant contributor, supported by over 1.7 billion in subsidies benefiting more than 140,000 consumers [3][4] Group 3: Infrastructure and Urban Development - Guangzhou's urban renewal investment reached 190 billion in 2025, exceeding the initial target of 180 billion, which provided strong support for the city's economic rebound [6] - The establishment of the Artificial Intelligence Development Bureau in Haizhu District aims to enhance the region's AI industry, with over 180 industry model projects already initiated [8][10] Group 4: Future Outlook - The 2026 investment target has been set at 200 billion, expected to further bolster the city's economic performance [7] - The provincial leadership emphasized the need for proactive policy implementation and project execution to ensure a strong start to 2026, aiming for economic growth to align with national trends [11]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 04 日 [Table_Title] 元旦出行稳健增长，离岛免税持续亮眼 投资建议 展望 26 年，我们建议关注高景气成长赛道以及政策、科技加 持下服务业景气拐点赛道，具体包括：（1）服务消费迎来政 策及行业新需求共振，有望驱动行业拐点，包括免税、银发 旅游、育儿消费等。受益标的包括中国中免、华住酒店、锦 江酒店、首旅酒店、三峡旅游、君亭酒店、孩子王、海底 捞、百胜中国、长白山等。（2）新消费拥有需求长逻辑，景 气度有望维持，当前行业龙头估值处于相对低位，26 年仍然 拥有足够弹性，包括潮玩、茶饮、时尚黄金珠宝、保健品 等。受益标的包括泡泡玛特、名创优品、潮宏基、老铺黄 金、若羽臣、古茗、蜜雪集团等。（3）零售业态创新+出海打 开新成长空间，受益标的包括小商品城、赛维时代等。（4） AI+应用 26 年有望迎来百花齐放，从主题到商业化变现加 速，受益标的包括焦点科技、豆神教育、青木科技、科锐国 际、米奥会展等。 风险提示 宏观经济下行，居民收入及消费意愿恢复不及预期，行业竞 争加剧。 [Table_Title2] 社服零售行业周报 ...

Macro Insights - The New Year's holiday saw a significant increase in travel, with inter-regional mobility growing by 19.5% year-on-year, reaching a recent high. Short-distance "micro-vacations" have become mainstream, with strong performance in service consumption, particularly in entertainment. However, product consumption has declined due to the waning effects of year-end sales [4]. - Real estate sales are showing marginal declines, although the easing of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities has released some demand. Infrastructure and construction are still constrained by insufficient new projects [4]. - The port operations remain stable, but there is a divergence in domestic import freight rates and the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). Most industries are experiencing a decline in operating rates, with petrochemicals and automotive sectors showing weak performance due to rising costs and falling demand, while emerging sectors like lithium batteries and photovoltaics are performing well [4]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is generally rising, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows mixed results. The RMB exchange rate has surpassed 7.0, with funding rates and government bond yields trending upward [4]. Strategy Insights - The A-share market is expected to see a "spring opening red" as it closed at 3968.84 points in 2025, marking an 18.41% annual increase. The market sentiment has shifted towards optimism, with expectations of a potential interest rate cut in the U.S. in 2026 [8]. - The influx of incremental capital, particularly through A500 ETF and insurance funds, is expected to solidify liquidity. The government has emphasized the need to stabilize and improve real estate market expectations, indicating a proactive approach to boosting growth [8][9]. - The central bank's fourth-quarter meeting highlighted the importance of price signals for promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, with a gradual emergence of price increases in certain sectors due to improved demand and supply constraints [10]. Industry Comparisons - The technology sector, particularly in AI and emerging industrialization trends, is expected to see strong growth. The domestic chip technology breakthroughs and storage price increases are anticipated to continue, with a focus on companies with global competitive advantages [11]. - Non-bank financial institutions are likely to benefit from increased demand for wealth management and the migration of household deposits, with recommendations for insurance and brokerage firms [11]. - The cyclical sectors are showing signs of improvement, with low valuations and positioning, benefiting from policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market. Recommendations include tourism services, hotels, and consumer goods [11]. - Specific themes to watch include AI applications, robotics, commercial aerospace, and domestic consumption, with a focus on new consumption patterns and service sectors [11].

Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to welcome a "spring opening red" with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3968.84 points, marking an annual increase of 18.41% in 2025, confirming the strategic judgment of Guotai Junan [2][7] - Key factors supporting the market include the anticipated announcement of the new Federal Reserve Chair, expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts in 2026, and the influx of incremental capital represented by the A500 ETF [2][8] - The decision-making body has emphasized the need to "promote investment stabilization," indicating a stronger policy push to boost growth, particularly in the real estate sector [2][8] Group 2: Price Signals and Economic Recovery - The central bank's fourth-quarter meeting highlighted the importance of price signals in promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, with price increases beginning to emerge in certain sectors since the second half of 2025 [3][11] - Specific sectors experiencing demand improvement but supply contraction include chemicals (e.g., organic silicon, refrigerants) and new energy materials (e.g., lithium carbonate) [3][11] - The current price increase cycle is characterized by demand driven by new technologies such as AI and energy storage, rather than traditional infrastructure [3][11] Group 3: Industry Comparisons - The outlook for technology, non-bank financials, and consumer sectors is positive, with strong growth expected in emerging technologies and capital goods exports [4][13] - Recommendations include technology growth stocks, non-bank financials benefiting from increased wealth management demand, and cyclical stocks positioned for recovery due to domestic demand expansion [4][13] - The focus on cyclical stocks includes those in the tourism, hotel, and consumer goods sectors, which are expected to benefit from policy support for domestic demand [4][13] Group 4: Thematic Recommendations - AI applications are expected to see significant growth, with companies like MiniMax preparing for IPOs and advancements in AI models driving demand [4][22] - The robotics sector is entering a phase of scale development, with new products being launched and significant investments in technology and supply chains [4][23] - The commercial aerospace sector is poised for growth, with new guidelines for IPOs and advancements in reusable rocket technology [4][24] - Consumer spending is expected to increase, driven by new consumption scenarios in sports events and tourism, supported by government policies [4][25]