Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards short - term bearish sentiment but limited trading opportunities on the current market [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Lead and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] Core Views - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, inventory changes, and macro - economic data. Different metals show different price trends and investment suggestions [1][2][3] Summary by Category Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper dropped below 79,000 yuan. Copper prices may adjust to 78,500 yuan under the resistance above. The spot copper price was 79,435 yuan, with the premium in Guangdong expanding to 60 yuan and in Shanghai to 210 yuan. SMM social inventory decreased by 6,000 tons to 125,600 tons. High - position short positions are recommended to be held [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum slightly declined, and the spot in East China turned to a premium of 10 yuan. Aluminum ingot social inventory slightly increased by 0.1 million tons, while aluminum rod social inventory decreased by 0.9 million tons. The peak of inventory accumulation in the off - season may occur in August, and the inventory is likely to be at a low level this year. Shanghai aluminum will mainly fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry is poor. The spot - AL cross - variety spread may narrow. The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, the total industry inventory has increased, and the warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have risen above 50,000 tons. There is adjustment pressure on the alumina futures market [2] Zinc - The fundamentals of supply increase and demand weakness establish the logic of short - selling on rebounds in the medium - to - long - term. The 08 contract is approaching delivery, and long positions are being reduced. The term structure of Shanghai zinc is flattening, which helps to make hidden inventory visible. SMM zinc social inventory has continued to rise to 129,200 tons. LME zinc inventory is as low as 78,500 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants is 42.1%. The fundamentals are stronger overseas than in China, and it is difficult to open the import window. The import concentrate TC has room for further rebound. As the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" approaches, the downward adjustment space of zinc is limited. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Lead - Smelter maintenance and restart coexist, demand is insufficient, and short positions are increasing. As delivery approaches, the spot - futures spread is narrowing. Refined - scrap lead price is inverted by 25 yuan/ton, and downstream buyers' willingness to purchase at low prices has improved, with a preference for primary lead. There is limited downward space for Shanghai lead under cost support. It is recommended to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 16,600 yuan/ton, focusing on the implementation of regular smelter maintenance in late August [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel has rebounded, and market trading is active. As the "anti - involution" theme in the domestic market comes to an end, nickel with relatively poor fundamentals will return to its fundamentals more quickly. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,350 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 350 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 50 yuan. The price support from the upstream has weakened recently. Ferronickel inventory remains basically unchanged at 33,000 tons, pure nickel inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and stainless steel inventory has decreased by 0.1 million tons to 966,000 tons, but the overall inventory level is still high. It is recommended to actively enter short positions as Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound [6] Tin - The intraday decline of Shanghai tin has widened to below 268,000 yuan. It is recommended that downstream and mid - stream enterprises choose low - price points for pricing. The spot tin price has been reduced by 700 yuan to 269,500 yuan. Short - term long positions can be considered [7] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fluctuates, and market trading is active. There is no clear trading theme in the market, and there are significant long - position profit - taking orders. The issue of September delivery limits the upside space. The spot price is 81,000 yuan. Downstream inquiries are active, and spot market transactions have improved. The total market inventory has slightly declined to 142,000 tons, smelter inventory has decreased by 3,000 tons to 52,000 tons, downstream inventory has increased by 3,000 tons to 46,000 tons, and trader inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 44,000 tons. There is an obvious transfer of cargo rights, and downstream enterprises are increasing their replenishment efforts as prices decline. The latest quotation of Australian ore is nearly $1,000 [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon has reduced positions and closed at 8,675 yuan/ton. It is difficult to achieve capacity self - discipline and clearance, and market sentiment is mainly affected by the linkage of "anti - involution" varieties. On the spot side, the price of Xinjiang 421 silicon remains stable at 9,150 yuan/ton. Against the background of increased production by large enterprises in Xinjiang and in Sichuan and Yunnan, the inventory in delivery warehouses has increased significantly, and there is still hedging pressure in the high - price range of the futures market. SMM expects the polysilicon production schedule to exceed 130,000 tons, with a clear marginal increase in demand. Supported by photovoltaic policy expectations, there is strong support below the futures market. It will mainly fluctuate in the short term [9] Polysilicon - Polysilicon has closed down above 50,000 yuan/ton. The recent correction is partly due to the sentiment transmission from the coking coal variety. On the spot side, according to SMM, the expected output of polysilicon in August will increase to over 130,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 26,000 tons), the increase in downstream silicon wafer production schedules is limited, and high inventory suppresses the upward elasticity of the spot price. The price of N - type re - feeding material remains stable at 47,000 yuan/ton. Although the sentiment of "anti - involution" varieties has been under pressure for adjustment recently, the probability of the implementation of capacity management in key industries is relatively high. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, with strong support below. It is recommended to lightly build long positions near 50,000 yuan/ton for the main contract [10]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating provided in the documents. Group 2: Core Views - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, being more affected by macro - emotions. However, the pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, and the contradiction between the release of Indonesian production capacity and weak stainless steel demand is still unresolved, so nickel prices are under pressure in the medium term [3]. - Under the dual pressure of abundant nickel ore supply from Indonesia and South Korea's anti - dumping policy, stainless steel is under medium - term pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the implementation of domestic steel mill production cuts in September and the marginal improvement signals of new energy vehicle demand [6]. Group 3: Nickel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On August 13, 2025, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel opened at 122,520 yuan/ton and closed at 122,340 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.24% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session volume was 96,355 lots, and the day - session volume was 89,510 lots. The position decreased from 73,889 lots at night to 70,930 lots during the day, indicating continuous capital outflow [2]. Nickel Ore - The nickel ore market remained calm with stable prices. Philippine mines had a strong attitude of holding up prices, and downstream iron plants' loss narrowed, so their pressure on raw material procurement prices eased. In Indonesia, the August (Phase I) domestic trade benchmark price increased by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars, and the August (Phase I) premium was mainly +24, unchanged from the previous period [3]. Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 124,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the upward momentum continued to slow down. Downstream enterprises still had strong waiting - and - seeing sentiment, and the overall spot trading of refined nickel was average [3]. Group 4: Nickel Variety Strategy - Unilateral: mainly conduct range operations; Cross - period: no operation; Cross - variety: no operation; Spot - futures: no operation; Options: no operation [3] Group 5: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On August 13, 2025, the main contract 2509 of stainless steel opened at 13,215 yuan/ton and closed at 13,130 yuan/ton. The night - session volume was 130,400 lots, and the day - session volume was 160,300 lots. The position increased from 143,700 lots at night to 144,200 lots during the day, indicating that short - sellers dominated [4][5]. Spot - In the morning, due to weak trading and falling futures prices, many sellers lowered their quotes to promote transactions. The overall inquiry atmosphere decreased compared with before, but as the traditional peak season approached, most downstream enterprises were still bullish on the future. The stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were both 13,300 yuan/ton [5]. Group 6: Stainless Steel Variety Strategy - Unilateral: neutral; Cross - period: no operation; Cross - variety: no operation; Spot - futures: no operation; Options: no operation [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel variety, the supply surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, with continuous release of nickel intermediate product capacity and loosening of mine - end prices. However, short - term macro sentiment has pushed up nickel prices. For the stainless steel variety, the pressure of nickel - iron surplus still exists, and the retail price of ferro - chrome is strongly stable. The social inventory of stainless steel has been decreasing. Recent continuous stimulation from macro - policy news has boosted the stainless steel market, and it is expected that the stainless steel price will maintain a range - bound and slightly stronger operation in the near future [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On August 11, 2025, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel opened at 121,000 yuan/ton and closed at 122,130 yuan/ton, a 0.80% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 112,549 lots, and the open interest was 77,193 lots. The night session opened slightly lower, then rose slightly, fell back after reaching a high, and oscillated slightly. The day session continued to rise and stood firm at the high of 122,000 yuan in the afternoon, closing with a positive line. The trading volume increased compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased [1] - **Nickel Ore**: In the Philippines, there was sporadic rainfall across the country, but the overall weather and sea conditions were better than the previous week. It is expected that in the third quarter, the impact of precipitation in the main producing areas will be limited, the shipping volume will remain at a high level, and the port arrival volume of ore will continue to increase with sufficient supply. Mines are mostly in the stage of fulfilling contracts and loading ships. In Indonesia, the weather has improved, the nickel ore supply is loose, and the price has slightly increased. The domestic trade benchmark price in August (Phase I) increased by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars, and the domestic trade premium was mainly +24 in August (Phase I), unchanged from the previous period, with a range of +23 - 25 [1] - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 124,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot transaction of refined nickel was generally average. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 2,200 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 20,723 (102.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 211,296 (- 936) tons [2] - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations - Others: No suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [3] Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On August 11, 2025, the main contract 2510 of stainless steel opened at 13,045 yuan/ton and closed at 13,225 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 202,613 lots, and the open interest was 135,260 lots. The night session oscillated strongly, and the day session continued to rise, closing with a positive line. Both the trading volume and open interest increased significantly compared with the previous trading day [3] - **Spot**: Boosted by the sharp rise in the SS futures market, the confidence of spot traders to be bullish has been significantly enhanced, and the quotes have increased accordingly. Small - scale traders started to replenish stocks, and the daily orders were acceptable. However, affected by the rapid price increase, some agents temporarily stopped accepting futures orders. The price of stainless steel in the Wuxi market was 13,200 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 13,200 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 100 - 300 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 919.0 yuan/nickel point [3] - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Neutral - Others: No suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: The supporting logic at the mine end is weakening, and the logic at the smelting end restricts elasticity [2][4]. - Stainless steel: The game between bulls and bears intensifies, and steel prices fluctuate [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: It is running strongly [2][9]. - Industrial silicon: The night - trading price of coking coal has risen. Attention should be paid to the boost of market sentiment [2][13]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to market information disturbances [2][13]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 122,130, with a series of changes compared to previous periods. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 13,225, also showing different changes over time. There were also detailed data on production, industry chain, and relevant prices such as high - nickel pig iron, nickel plate - high - nickel iron spread, etc. [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: There were multiple news items, including Ontario's potential halt of nickel exports to the US, the trial production of the Indonesian CNI nickel - iron project, environmental violations in the IMIP in Indonesia, plans to shorten the mining quota period in Indonesia, changes in the RKAB production plan, production suspension in some Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial parks, and a steel mill's production reduction in Shandong [4][5][6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is also 0 [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: Data on the closing price, trading volume, and open interest of the 2509 and 2511 contracts were provided, as well as information on the basis, raw materials, and product prices in the lithium carbonate industry chain [10] - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased. CATL suspended mining operations due to an expired mining license and is applying for renewal. The retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in July was 54.0%, with changes in the market shares of different brands [11][12] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1 [12] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: Information on the closing price, trading volume, and open interest of the Si2511 and PS2511 contracts was given, along with data on the basis, prices, profits, and inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon, as well as raw material costs [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: The first - phase project of the Gansu Heihe Silicon - based New Material Comprehensive Utilization Project is in the final construction stage, with a total investment of 2.063 billion yuan and planned production capacities of industrial silicon and high - purity ferrosilicon [13][15] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1 [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Nickel: The supporting logic at the ore end is weakening, and the logic at the smelting end restricts its elasticity [2][4]. - Stainless steel: The game between long and short positions is intensifying, and the steel price is fluctuating [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: The shutdown of a large - scale mine in Jiangxi has been implemented, and the price is running strongly [2][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel a. Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,180, down 670 from T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,985, down 15 from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 74,864, a decrease of 21,747 from T - 1; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 86,671, an increase of 1,172 from T - 1 [4]. - **Industrial Chain**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 121,150, down 200 from T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 919, unchanged from T - 1. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan was 13,100, up 50 from T - 1 [4]. b. Macro and Industry News - Canada's Ontario province may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [4]. - China ENFI's EPC - contracted Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project has entered the trial - production stage, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal per line [5]. - Environmental violations were found in the Indonesian Morowali Industrial Park, and the relevant department may fine the confirmed illegal companies and audit the entire park [5][6]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [6]. - The Indonesian government - approved 2025 RKAB production for nickel mines is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target [6]. - An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park has suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, which is expected to affect the monthly nickel - iron production by about 1,900 tons of metal [6][7]. - Indonesian mining and coal companies must resubmit their 2026 RKAB starting from October 2025 [7]. - A Shandong steel mill has started maintenance due to capacity limitations and will reduce the supply of hot - rolled coils [7]. c. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral view [8]. Lithium Carbonate a. Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 76,640, up 4,720 from T - 1; the trading volume was 145,134, a decrease of 64,511 from T - 1; the open interest was 149,489, a decrease of 11,062 from T - 1. The closing price of the 2511 contract was 76,960, up 4,660 from T - 1; the trading volume was 895,609, an increase of 128,940 from T - 1; the open interest was 320,706, an increase of 30,874 from T - 1 [12]. - **Industrial Chain**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,900, up 800 from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 69,800, up 800 from T - 1. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 777, up 20 from T - 1 [12]. b. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 71,961 yuan/ton, a rise of 1,012 yuan/ton from the previous working day [13]. - CATL's Jiaxiawo mining area will stop production at 12 o'clock tonight and has no short - term resumption plan [13]. - The Australian government will inject 50 million Australian dollars (about 32.5 million US dollars) into Liontown Resources to accelerate its underground mining transformation [14]. c. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For nickel, it is expected to trade in a narrow - range with limited upside and downside, and investors should focus on range - bound trading and double - selling option strategies. The support from the ore end is weakening, and the smelting end restricts price elasticity. [4] - For stainless steel, the price is expected to oscillate as the multi - empty game intensifies. Bulls focus on macro - expectations and marginal improvements, while bears focus on weak reality and short - term valuations. [5] - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to short at high levels in the short term, following coking coal in the short run, and pay attention to the upstream factory resumption rhythm. [28][33] - For polysilicon, the market sentiment has cooled, and the price may correct. It is recommended to buy on dips in the third quarter. [28][34] - For lithium carbonate, due to the shutdown of the Jianxiawo mine, the price is expected to rise. If overseas supply increases to fill the gap, the price may fall after the project resumes. [54][56] - For palm oil, with strong supply and demand in the producing areas, the strategy is to go long on dips. [2][71] - For soybean oil, new export drivers have emerged, and investors should pay attention to the results of Sino - US negotiations. [2][72] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Market Outlook - Nickel price is expected to trade in a narrow range, with limited upside due to increasing global refined nickel inventory and long - term low - cost supply expectations, but difficult to fall sharply in the short term. [4] - Stainless steel price will oscillate as the multi - empty game intensifies, with bulls and bears having different focuses. [5] Inventory Changes - Chinese refined nickel social inventory decreased by 536 tons to 38,578 tons, while LME nickel inventory increased by 5,160 tons to 209,082 tons. [6][7] - Nickel - iron inventory at the end of July decreased by 10% month - on - month but increased by 56% year - on - year. [8] - Stainless steel social total inventory decreased by 0.44% week - on - week. [8] Market News - Multiple events such as potential export restrictions, project startups, environmental violations, and policy changes in Indonesia have occurred. [9][10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Trends - Industrial silicon futures oscillated strongly, while spot prices declined. Polysilicon futures rose and then fell, and spot transactions showed no significant improvement. [28] Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Industrial silicon industry inventory turned to accumulation, with increased production in the southwest and northwest regions. The demand from polysilicon and organic silicon sectors increased marginally. [29][30] - Polysilicon supply increased in the short term, and inventory started to accumulate. The demand from the silicon wafer sector increased slightly, but the upstream price increase was not smoothly transmitted to the downstream. [30][31] Market Outlook - Industrial silicon: Pay attention to the upstream factory resumption rhythm, and it is recommended to short at high levels. The expected price range next week is 8,200 - 9,000 yuan/ton. [32][33] - Polysilicon: The price may correct, and it is recommended to buy on dips in the third quarter. The expected price range next week is 47,000 - 54,000 yuan/ton. [34] Lithium Carbonate Price Trends - Lithium carbonate futures prices increased significantly, and the basis of long - term contracts turned negative. [54] Supply and Demand Fundamentals - The Jianxiawo mine of CATL will stop production, and there is no short - term resumption plan. The supply of lithium concentrate and lithium carbonate from overseas increased, and the demand from the new energy vehicle and energy storage markets continued to recover. The social inventory increased, with upstream de - stocking and downstream inventory accumulation. [55] Market Outlook - The price is expected to rise due to the mine shutdown. If overseas supply fills the gap, the price may fall after the project resumes. The expected price range of the futures main contract is 75,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton. [56][57] Palm Oil and Soybean Oil Market Outlook - Palm oil: With strong supply and demand in the producing areas, the strategy is to go long on dips. [2][71] - Soybean oil: New export drivers have emerged, and investors should pay attention to the results of Sino - US negotiations. [2][72]

Core Viewpoint - The current market for nickel and stainless steel shows mixed signals, with nickel prices fluctuating and stainless steel prices remaining high despite limited demand [3][4][5]. Nickel Market Summary - As of 15:00 today, nickel is trading around $15,150 per ton, while the Shanghai nickel main contract closed down by 170 to 121,180 yuan per ton [3]. - The stainless steel futures main contract increased by 25 to 12,985 yuan per ton, indicating a potential upward trend [3]. - The market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with a focus on whether the prices can stabilize above the 13,000 yuan mark [3]. Stainless Steel Market Summary - The mainstream price for 304 cold-rolled resources in the market is reported between 12,700 and 12,900 yuan per ton, while hot-rolled resources are around 12,450 to 12,500 yuan per ton [3]. - The market atmosphere in East China is becoming subdued, while South China is following the trend of high prices, although demand remains limited [3]. - The overall sentiment in the rolled steel market is strong, with expectations of continued price stability unless significant changes occur [5]. Trade and Pricing Dynamics - Cold-rolled resources are maintaining high prices, with J1 resources reported between 7,300 and 7,800 yuan per ton, and J2 and J5 resources around 7,000 to 7,100 yuan per ton [4]. - There is a reduction in low-priced resources, and some high-priced resources have a narrow flexible space of 20-30 yuan [4]. - The pricing remains elevated, indicating a strong market position [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Currently, the path of interest rate cuts is unclear. Without a significant improvement in interest rate cut expectations, the upward momentum of copper prices is insufficient. However, due to the resilience of the fundamentals, the downside space is also limited. Copper pricing has returned to macro trading, and in the absence of significant macro disturbances, it may mainly fluctuate within a range. The reference range for the main contract is 77,000 - 79,000 [1]. Aluminum - Recently, the alumina futures price has rebounded, but the market will remain slightly oversupplied in the future. The core driver will be the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity. It is expected that the main contract will run in the range of 3,000 - 3,400 in the short term. For aluminum, under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectations, weakening demand, and macro disturbances, it is expected that the price will remain under high - level pressure in the short term. The reference price range for the main contract this month is 20,000 - 21,000 [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is relatively tight, providing some support for the cost of recycled aluminum. However, the demand is continuously suppressed by the traditional off - season. It is expected that the disk will mainly show wide - range fluctuations, with the main contract running in the range of 19,200 - 20,200. Attention should be paid to changes in upstream scrap aluminum supply and imports [5]. Zinc - The TC of zinc mines has risen, but the growth rates of global mine output in May and domestic mine output in June were both lower than expected. The fundamentals of loose supply and weak demand are insufficient to boost the continuous upward movement of zinc prices, but low inventories provide price support. It is expected that zinc prices will mainly fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22,000 - 23,000 [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the recovery of tin ore imports from Myanmar in August. If the supply recovers smoothly, there is a large downward space for tin prices. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies. If the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high [11]. Nickel - Recently, the macro situation has been stable, and the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The mid - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. It is expected that the disk will be mainly adjusted within a range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro expectations [13]. Stainless Steel - The short - term sentiment of the disk is stable, but the policy's continuous stimulus expectations are insufficient, and the fundamental spot demand drive is not obvious. It is expected that the disk will mainly fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract running in the range of 12,600 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to policy trends and supply - demand rhythms [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The current supply - demand situation is in a tight balance as expected. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is steadily optimistic, gradually entering the peak season. However, due to the inventory pressure in the material industry chain, the actual demand has not been significantly boosted. The disk is mainly trading on expectations, and the uncertainty on the supply side will still inject trading variables. Attention should be paid to short - term news increments and supply adjustments [18]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose by 0.19% to 78,500 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper price rose by 0.23% to 78,365 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 11.15% to 734 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, the electrolytic copper output was 117.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. In June, the electrolytic copper import volume was 30.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.74%. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 7.01% week - on - week [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price rose by 0.29% to 20,690 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The alumina price in most regions remained stable, with only the average price in Guizhou rising by 0.45% [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, the alumina output was 765.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%. The electrolytic aluminum output was 372.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11%. The aluminum profile开工率 decreased by 1.00% week - on - week [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 rose by 0.50% to 20,250 yuan/ton. The monthly spread of some contracts changed, such as the 2511 - 2512 spread decreasing by 5 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In June, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49%. The output of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.30%. The recycled aluminum alloy开工率 increased by 3.02% week - on - week [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose by 0.81% to 22,510 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton. The import loss increased, and the monthly spread of some contracts decreased [8]. Fundamental Data - In July, the refined zinc output was 60.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. In June, the refined zinc import volume was 3.61 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.97%. The galvanizing开工率 decreased by 2.65% week - on - week [8]. Tin Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.15% to 267,200 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 73.81% [11]. Fundamental Data - In June, the tin ore import volume was 11,911 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.44%. The SMM refined tin output was 13,810 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.94%. The SHEF inventory increased by 3.42% [11]. Nickel Price and Cost - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose by 0.04% to 122,150 yuan/ton, and the premium of some brands remained stable. The cost of integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel increased by 0.88% month - on - month [13]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel output decreased by 10.04% month - on - month, while the import volume increased by 116.90%. The SHFE inventory increased by 0.69% week - on - week, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.11% day - on - day [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) rose by 0.38% to 13,050 yuan/ton. The monthly spread of some contracts increased slightly [16]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel output decreased by 3.83% month - on - month. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 2.58% week - on - week [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose by 0.21% to 71,100 yuan/ton. The basis decreased by 47.37% to 1,100 yuan/ton [18]. Fundamental Data - In July, the lithium carbonate output was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The demand was 96,275 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62%. The total inventory decreased by 2.01% month - on - month [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Copper - Currently, the path of interest rate cuts is unclear. Before the expectation of interest rate cuts improves significantly, the upward momentum of copper prices is insufficient. However, due to the resilience of the fundamentals, the downside space is also limited. Copper pricing returns to macro trading. Without significant macro disturbances, copper prices may mainly fluctuate within a range. The main reference range is 77,000 - 79,000 [1]. Aluminum - Recently, the aluminum price has been running strongly, but the downstream purchasing willingness is low during the off - season, and the market discount continues to widen. The macro - level domestic consumption stimulus and the "anti - involution" sentiment support the aluminum price, but the expected changes in the Fed's interest rate cuts and tariff events bring great uncertainty. In the short term, the price is still under high - level pressure, and the main contract price this month is expected to be in the range of 20,000 - 21,000. Follow - up attention should be paid to inventory changes and marginal changes in demand [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is currently tight, which provides certain cost support for recycled aluminum. However, the demand is suppressed by the traditional off - season, and the subsequent weak demand situation will continue to inhibit the upward momentum of prices. It is expected that the market will mainly show wide - range fluctuations, with the main contract reference range of 19,200 - 20,200. Attention should be paid to the supply and import changes of upstream scrap aluminum [5]. Zinc - The zinc ore TC has risen to 3,900 yuan/ton, but the growth rates of global and domestic zinc ore production in May and June were lower than expected. The supply on the supply side is loose, and the demand side is weak, which is not enough to boost the continuous rise of zinc prices. However, the low inventory provides price support. In the short term, it is expected that zinc prices will mainly fluctuate, with the main reference range of 22,000 - 23,000 [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is currently tight, and the processing fees of smelters remain low. The demand is expected to be weak in the future. If the supply of tin ore from Myanmar recovers smoothly in August, there is a large downward space for tin prices. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies. If the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high [11]. Nickel - Recently, the macro situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals have not changed much. The mid - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. In the short term, it is expected that the market will mainly adjust within a range, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro expectations [13]. Stainless Steel - The downstream acceptance of high - priced resources is not high, and the overall market transaction is average. The short - term market supply pressure is difficult to reduce, and the terminal demand is weak. The short - term market is expected to mainly fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to policy trends and the supply - demand rhythm [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Recently, market sentiment and news - related factors dominate the market trend. The trading core lies in the ore end. The supply uncertainty will inject trading variables into the market. The current supply - demand situation is in a tight balance as expected. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is steadily optimistic. It is expected that the main contract price may test around 75,000. For those without positions, it is advisable to wait and see cautiously. Pay attention to short - term news increments and supply adjustments [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.19% to 78,500 yuan/ton; the premium/discount increased by 10 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton. The price of SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.23% to 78,365 yuan/ton; the premium/discount increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton. The price of SMM wet - process copper increased by 0.18% to 78,390 yuan/ton; the premium/discount remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 11.15% to 734 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1743 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. In June, the electrolytic copper import volume was 300,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.74%. The import copper concentrate index increased by 0.54 to - 42.09 dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.27%. The inventory of copper concentrates at domestic mainstream ports decreased by 7.01% to 521,600 tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.29% to 20,690 yuan/ton; the premium/discount decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton. The average price of alumina in Shandong, Henan, and Shanxi remained unchanged, while the average price in Guangxi remained unchanged, and the average price in Guizhou increased by 0.45% to 3,330 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, the alumina production was 7.6502 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%; the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7214 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11%. In June, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease; the export volume was 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 0.50% to 20,250 yuan/ton. The price of SMM East China ADC12, South China ADC12, and Northeast ADC12 all increased by 0.50% to 20,250 yuan/ton. The price of SMM Southwest ADC12 increased by 0.49% to 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 615,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49%; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 255,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.30%. The import volume of unforged aluminum alloy ingots was 77,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.21%; the export volume was 25,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.61% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.81% to 22,510 yuan/ton; the premium/discount decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton. The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot in Guangdong increased by 0.81% to 22,470 yuan/ton; the premium/discount decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In July, the refined zinc production was 602,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. In June, the refined zinc import volume was 36,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.97%; the export volume was 1,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.24%. The galvanizing start - up rate decreased by 2.65 percentage points to 56.77%, the die - casting zinc alloy start - up rate decreased by 2.79 percentage points to 48.24%, and the zinc oxide start - up rate increased by 0.14 percentage points to 56.13% [8]. Tin Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 tin decreased by 0.15% to 267,200 yuan/ton; the premium/discount remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton. The price of Yangtze River 1 tin decreased by 0.15% to 267,700 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 premium/discount decreased by 73.81% to - 73 dollars/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In June, the tin ore import volume was 11,911 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.44%. The SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.94%. The refined tin import volume was 1,786 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.97%; the export volume was 1,973 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.47% [11]. Nickel Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 0.04% to 122,150 yuan/ton. The price of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 0.04% to 123,250 yuan/ton; the premium/discount remained unchanged at 2,250 yuan/ton. The price of 1 imported nickel increased by 0.04% to 121,350 yuan/ton; the premium/discount remained unchanged at 350 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. The refined nickel import volume was 19,157 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.90%. The SHFE inventory increased by 0.69% to 25,451 tons, the social inventory decreased by 0.14% to 40,281 tons, and the bonded area inventory increased by 10.64% to 5,200 tons [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.38% to 13,050 yuan/ton; the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.39% to 13,000 yuan/ton. The spot - futures price difference decreased by 6.38% to 220 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) was 1.7133 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in Indonesia (Qinglong) was 360,000 tons, remaining unchanged. The stainless steel import volume was 109,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.48%; the export volume was 390,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.63%; the net export volume was 280,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.89% [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.21% to 71,100 yuan/ton; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.22% to 69,000 yuan/ton. The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide remained unchanged at 65,490 yuan/ton; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium hydroxide remained unchanged at 60,420 yuan/ton [18]. Fundamental Data - In July, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 61,320 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.40%; the industrial - grade lithium carbonate production was 20,210 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.22%. The lithium carbonate demand was 96,275 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62%. In June, the lithium carbonate import volume was 17,698 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.31%; the export volume was 430 tons, a month - on - month increase of 49.84% [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost of nickel resource supply has increased due to the restrictions on the issuance of the PNBP policy by the Indonesian government, but the production of nickel iron in Indonesia has rebounded significantly. Recently, the price of nickel iron has dropped significantly, weakening the support of raw material costs. [2] - The production profit of steel mills has improved significantly. Due to the rise in steel prices and the weak increase in raw material costs, it is expected that the output of steel mills will increase in August. [2] - As the traditional off - season for downstream consumption is coming to an end, there are optimistic expectations for the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". Coupled with the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies, anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern, and the market's purchasing willingness has recovered. [2] - Recently, the destocking of domestic stainless steel has been good, the market inventory pressure has been reduced, and the spot premium has risen. Technically, with a slight increase in positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is strong. It is recommended to go long with a light position. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 65; the price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts is - 15 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 15. [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 26,366 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 581; the position volume of the main contract is 81,584 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 2,462. [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 103,226 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 423. [2] 现货 Market - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,600 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,500 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. [2] - The basis of the SS main contract is 220 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 65. [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1,120; the total monthly output of nickel iron is 22,600 metal tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,300. [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 472.3; the monthly import volume of nickel iron is 1.0414 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 193,200. [2] - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 122,150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 50; the average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 920 yuan/nickel point, with no month - on - month change. [2] - The monthly output of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 26,900. [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.744 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 40,700; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 608,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2,300. [2] - The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 29,500. [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly value of new housing starts is 303.6432 million square meters, with a month - on - month increase of 71.8071 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 26,800, with a month - on - month increase of 1,000. [2] - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,700, with a month - on - month decrease of 2,900; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,000. [2] Industry News - Trump announced a 100% tariff on all imported products containing semiconductors, but companies building or promising to build factories in the US are exempted. [2] - The US plans to impose an additional 15% tariff on the basis of the existing tariffs due to the continuous differences in the US - Japan trade agreement. [2] - Fed Governor Cook said the July employment report was "worrying" and might indicate a turning point in the US economy. [2] - The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the supply of nickel resources, increasing costs, but the production of nickel iron in Indonesia has rebounded. [2]