Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the yield on the 6-month U.S. Treasury bill auction held on June 30 was 4.11%, slightly down from the previous yield of 4.12% [1]

美国至6月30日3个月国债竞拍-投标倍数 3.04，前值3.49。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the results of the U.S. 6-month Treasury bill auction held until June 30, showing a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.77, which is an increase from the previous value of 2.7 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a significant "duration extension" trend, particularly driven by public funds aggressively purchasing long-duration bonds, leading to a notable compression in credit spreads for bonds with maturities over five years [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - Recent weeks have seen a clear trend of extending durations in the bond market, especially in the credit bond sector, which has outperformed the interest rate bond market [2]. - As of June 27, the duration of bond funds has increased from approximately 2.5 years at the beginning of June to over 2.7 years [3]. - The total scale of credit bond ETFs has surged to 214.7 billion yuan, marking a 50% increase since the end of May, with notable growth in specific ETFs [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Risks - Despite the ongoing "bull market" in bonds, there are rising concerns about market overcrowding, with credit spreads nearing historical lows and leverage ratios approaching historical highs [5]. - Analysts express a generally optimistic outlook for the bond market, citing supportive fundamentals such as weak domestic demand and a favorable monetary policy stance from the central bank [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - It is recommended to maintain a focus on long-duration bonds to capitalize on the anticipated bull market following the quarter-end [7]. - Investors are advised to consider bonds with durations between 3 to 5 years, particularly those with higher yields, while remaining cautious of potential market volatility [8].

Tabl e_Title 2025 年 6 月 30 日 大类资产运行周报（20250623-20250627） 地缘冲突明显缓和 权益资产周度上涨 风险提示：美国通胀数据改善不及预期 大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | 3.25% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | 3.28% | | 全球债券指数 | 0.98% | | 全球国债指数 | 0.99% | | 全球信用债指数 姓名 | 1.04% 分析师 | | 美元指数 | -1.52% SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn -4.09% | | | 021-68767839 | | 标普高盛商品全收益指数 | -6.00% | 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 相关报告 大类资产运行周报（202503 ...

证券研究报告 固收 科创债 ETF 推出在即，如何看待 2025 年 6 月 30 日│中国内地 信用周报 信用热点：科创债 ETF 推出在即，如何看待 6 月 18 日首批 10 只科创债 ETF 上报，有望在近期获批发行。科技板推出 后科创债迅速扩容，为科创债 ETF 的推出奠定市场基础。首批科创债 ETF 跟踪三类科创债指数，底层标的集中在交易所高等级国企债，期限偏中短端， 6 月成分券换手率明显提升。科创债指数表现呈现收益稳健、较低波动的特 点。随着科创债 ETF 即将推出，机构提前布局等待 ETF 建仓，科创债指数 成分券估值下行较非成分券更快。后续科创债 ETF 获批上市、规模扩容， 将有利于压缩科创债流动性溢价，利好科创债品种表现，可关注投资机会， 扰动因素有估值定价扭曲、赎回压力、风险偏好变化等。 市场回顾：股市连阳推升市场风险偏好，信用债收益率多数上行 上周临近季末，央行呵护下资金面整体平稳，但股债跷跷板导致债市出现一 定回调，信用债收益率多数上行。2025 年 6 月 20 日至 6 月 27 日，央行呵 护下季末资金面平稳，股市突破前高导致市场风险偏好提升，股债跷跷板下 债市略有调整，利 ...

以下文章来源于教你挖掘基 ，作者冰姐 教你挖掘基 . 投资理财有方法，我们手把手教你挖掘牛基~ 时光飞逝，仿佛须臾之间，我们挥手作别了2025年上半年。 这半年间： 从特朗普政府的关税政策反复摇摆，到海外地缘政治争端一波未平一波又起，从DeepSeek以惊人效率突破AI算力封锁，到全球资金开始了新一轮的迁 徙，大类资产的投资图景正在经历一场悄无声息的重构。 下一站，多元资产配置——在这个经济全球化遭遇逆风、技术革命"起于青萍之末"的时代，投资者需要的不是预测风暴的能力，而是在风暴中 保持航向的定力。 01 混沌之中的上半年 ——全球资金再平衡实录 翻开大类资产上半年的成绩单，"资金盛与资产荒"精准勾勒了其间的市场底色。 海内外的流动性如同潮水，却在现实世界中似乎找不到足够的优质资产停泊。 在此背景之下，"确定性"资产迎来狂欢， 黄金 成为了明星选手。 相较于南华商品指数的整体收跌，国际现货黄金26%的涨幅背后，是地缘冲突与美元信用松动的双重叙事。 从贸易争端阴云未散，到中东局势骤然生变，黄金的避险属性被无限放大，但更深远的力量来自全球央行持续增持——预计2025年购买量将达 1000吨。中国央行更是连续第7个 ...

债市的买方情绪率先降温 [Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 ——债市情绪面周报（6 月第 5 周） 报告日期： 2025-06-30 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 分析师：洪子彦 执业证书号：S0010525060002 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 华安观点：建议切换至活跃券把握债市左侧行情 当前债市的交易主线并不明确，整体顺风但在投资者高久期、高杠杆的 情况下仍有利空因素扰动，基本面难空债市，央行对于资金面呵护意图较为 明显，从近期的机构行为特征看，大行买短已经持续近 1 月，非银机构追涨 情绪高昂，其他产品类净买入明显加大（去年 7-8 月表现类似），维持久期， 持有 10Y/30Y 活跃券更有利于利好兑现时获取资本利得，以及利空出现时的 及时止损。 ⚫ 卖方观点：情绪指数小幅回落，仍有超 6 成固收卖方看多债市 从市场情绪的角 ...

上周债市窄幅震荡，收益率曲线延续陡峭化 ——利率债周报（2025.6.23-2025.6.29） 作者 东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 瞿瑞 部门执行总监 冯琳 时间 2025 年 6 月 30 日 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 核心观点 ⚫ 上周债市窄幅震荡，收益率曲线延续陡峭化。上周（6 月 23 日 当周）债市先跌后涨。周一至周三，受中东局势缓和驱动股市 上涨，股债跷跷板效应显现影响，债市偏弱运行；周四，由于 发改委发布会无增量政策落地，市场情绪阶段性修复，债市小 幅回暖。整体上看，上周债市延续窄幅震荡格局，长债收益率 先上后下，整体小幅上行。短端利率方面，虽然临近季末，但 在央行有力"呵护"下，资金面整体较为宽松，推动债市短端 利率继续下行，收益率曲线延续陡峭化。 本周（6月30日当周）债市料延续震荡行情。从基本面来看， 6 月制造业 PMI 指数虽有小幅上升，但仍处于荣枯线下方，显 示基本面在外部环境扰动下继续承压，整体上依然利好债市。 从资金面来看，上周五公布的货币政策委员会二季度例会公告 强调"物价持续低位运行"以及"要实施好适度宽松的货币政 策，加强逆周期调节"，加之近期央行通过多种方式 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. long-term bond funds are experiencing the largest capital outflow in five years, with a net outflow of $11 billion in Q2 2025, marking the highest since the market turmoil of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 [1] - This sell-off reverses a trend of average inflows of $20 billion over the previous 12 quarters, indicating deep investor anxiety regarding the long-term value of U.S. Treasuries [1] - The outflow reflects broader concerns about the long-term fiscal outlook, exacerbated by rising debt levels, inflation, and supply issues [1][2][3] Group 1: Debt Concerns - The U.S. is facing a "debt tsunami," with projections of trillions in additional debt over the next decade due to tax reforms, leading to accelerated Treasury issuance to cover deficits [1] - Market trust in fiscal sustainability is rapidly eroding, as highlighted by Goldman Sachs' chief credit strategist [1] Group 2: Inflation Pressures - Tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are expected to trigger imported inflation, which poses a significant threat to long-term bonds [2] - Long-term bonds are particularly sensitive to inflation, as rising prices erode the real purchasing power of fixed interest payments [2] Group 3: Supply-Demand Imbalance - The U.S. Treasury's accelerated borrowing to fill deficits has led to a supply-demand imbalance in long-term bonds, with prices dropping approximately 1% this quarter and 30-year yields nearing 4.82% [3] - Bill Gross warns that the 10-year Treasury yield is unlikely to break below 4.25% due to fiscal deficits and a weak dollar contributing to inflation [3] Group 4: Shift to Short-Term Bonds - In contrast to long-term bonds, short-term Treasury funds attracted over $39 billion this quarter, indicating a significant shift in investor strategy [4] - Investors are opting for shorter maturities to lock in yields while avoiding long-term inflation risks, with expectations of delayed rate cuts by the Federal Reserve until 2026 [4] - The preference for liquidity is heightened due to geopolitical tensions and tariff uncertainties, leading to a focus on more liquid short-term assets [4] Group 5: Global Implications - The sell-off in long-term U.S. Treasuries is prompting a global reallocation of capital, with institutions like PIMCO reducing exposure to the dollar and long-term bonds [5] - Following a downgrade of the U.S. sovereign rating by Moody's, sovereign funds are accelerating diversification into gold and non-U.S. bonds, with the 10-year Treasury yield spiking to 4.49% [5] - There is an increasing demand for risk compensation, as investors anticipate needing higher returns on the long end of the yield curve, despite the core status of U.S. Treasuries remaining intact [5] Group 6: Historical Context - The current scale of Treasury sell-offs has surpassed the "taper tantrum" of 2013 and the bond market crash of 2022, suggesting that if U.S. fiscal discipline continues to falter, the process of "de-dollarization" may accelerate, reshaping the global financial landscape [6]