Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a positive trend, with major indices opening higher, driven by sectors such as storage chips, CPO, and photolithography machines [1]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Huaxi Securities indicates that short-term risk appetite is expected to boost the A-share market, maintaining a "slow bull" trend, with "big technology" as the long-term focus [2]. - CITIC Securities suggests that the market is returning to an earnings-driven structure, with recent adjustments in active funds and a shift in understanding trade disputes [3]. - Zhongtai Securities notes that important meeting announcements are overall favorable for A-shares, particularly in technology, manufacturing, and consumption sectors, with potential for unexpected policies [4]. Group 2: Sector Focus - Huaxi Securities highlights that the upcoming earnings reports from A-share companies and US tech giants will be crucial, especially in the context of the global AI arms race [2]. - CITIC Securities identifies two emerging trends: the safety of industrial chains benefiting Chinese manufacturing firms and the expansion of AI from cloud to edge [3]. - Zhongtai Securities emphasizes the importance of focusing on technology stocks, particularly in AI and sectors related to "anti-involution" such as polysilicon and photovoltaic components [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation / Polysilicon: Oscillation [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market trends of industrial silicon and polysilicon, and provides investment suggestions based on cost, supply - demand, and policy factors. It believes that industrial silicon has a clearer price floor and recommends buying on dips; for polysilicon, it maintains the view that spot prices will not fall, and suggests buying on dips when the futures price is at a discount to the spot price [4][20] Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - This week, the Si2601 contract of industrial silicon increased by 120 yuan/ton to 8920 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 remained flat at 9350 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 8700 yuan/ton. The PS2601 contract of polysilicon decreased by 2545 yuan/ton to 52305 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of N - type re -投料 of polysilicon was 53200 yuan/ton [11] 2. Industrial Silicon Production Reduction in the Dry Season, New Round of Polysilicon Transactions Begin - **Industrial silicon**: The futures main contract fluctuated strongly. This week, production in Xinjiang increased by 1 furnace, while in Yunnan, Sichuan, and Inner Mongolia, it decreased by 3, 2, and 2 furnaces respectively, and increased by 1 furnace in Ningxia. It is expected that there will be more significant production reduction at the end of October. The social inventory decreased by 0.3 million tons, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 0.03 million tons. It is expected that inventory reduction will be difficult in November and 1.5 million tons will be reduced in December [14] - **Organic silicon**: The price rose slightly. Some device overhauls led to a decrease in the overall start - up rate to 68.02%, a weekly output of 45,000 tons (a decrease of 2.81% month - on - month), and an inventory of 43,000 tons (an increase of 2.87% month - on - month). It is expected that the price will oscillate [14][15] - **Polysilicon**: The futures main contract fell. The spot price remained unchanged, with new orders priced at 52 - 53 yuan/kg. The planned production in October is about 138,000 tons, and it is expected to drop to 118,000 tons in November. As of October 23, the factory inventory was 258,000 tons, an increase of 0.5 million tons month - on - month. It is expected that the spot price will remain flat [15] - **Silicon wafers**: Some models' prices declined slightly. The final output in October is expected to be over 61GW, an increase of 3% month - on - month. The inventory as of October 23 was 18.47GW, an increase of 1.16GW month - on - month. It is expected that production will be reduced starting from November, and the price is expected to remain flat [16] - **Battery cells**: The price remained basically stable. Overseas demand declined, and the inventory of export - oriented factories increased. Due to the sharp increase in silver paste prices, the cost pressure on battery factories increased. It is expected that the price of G12 models will remain at 0.31 yuan/watt, and the price of G12R models is not optimistic [17] - **Components**: The price remained basically stable. Terminal demand began to decline in late October. It is expected that production scheduling will continue to decline in November. The inventory as of October 20 was 33.5GW, a decrease of 0.7GW month - on - month. It is expected that the short - term price will oscillate [18] 3. Investment Suggestions - **Industrial silicon**: After hedging, short - term price drops are unlikely to cause production cuts. The price needs to exceed 10,000 yuan/ton to increase supply significantly. Buying on dips is more cost - effective [4][20] - **Polysilicon**: Although the fundamentals are not optimistic, policy trading is more important than fundamental trading. When the futures price is at a significant premium to the spot price, the cost - effectiveness of incremental policy gambling decreases. When the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, buying on dips can be considered [4][20] 4. Hot News Compilation - In September, the newly added photovoltaic installed capacity was 9.65GW, a year - on - year decrease of 54%. From January to September, the newly added photovoltaic installed capacity was 240.27GW, a year - on - year increase of 49% [21] - Tongwei Co., Ltd. released its third - quarter report for 2025, with a revenue of 64.6 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.38%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of - 5.27 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 32.64% [21] - The comprehensive rectification of "involution - style" competition will effectively remove various market barriers [21]

Core Insights - The multi-crystalline silicon market is currently experiencing a critical period of industrial restructuring, with supply significantly contracting year-on-year, yet inventory is slightly accumulating, indicating relatively weak terminal demand [1] - The average transaction price for n-type recycled material is stable at 53,200 CNY/ton, while n-type granular silicon averages 50,500 CNY/ton, both showing no change compared to the previous period [1][3] - The number of mainstream signing enterprises in the multi-crystalline silicon market has increased to 5-6, but overall market transactions remain relatively light, with demand expectations for Q4 photovoltaic installations being weak [1][2] Supply and Demand Analysis - The number of operating multi-crystalline silicon enterprises remains at 11, with production expected to peak in October at approximately 382,000 tons, a slight year-on-year increase of 3.0% [2] - In Q4, domestic multi-crystalline silicon production is projected to decrease gradually after November due to maintenance and reduced production in the southwestern region [2] - By 2025, the annual domestic multi-crystalline silicon production is expected to be around 1.34 million tons, a significant year-on-year decrease of 27.3%, indicating a slight oversupply compared to demand [2] Price Trends - The price range for n-type recycled material is between 49,000 and 55,000 CNY/ton, with the highest price at 55,000 CNY/ton and the lowest at 49,000 CNY/ton, reflecting no price fluctuation [3] - The price for n-type granular silicon is stable, with a range of 50,000 to 51,000 CNY/ton, maintaining an average of 50,500 CNY/ton [3] - The pricing data is based on weighted averages from nine multi-crystalline silicon production enterprises, which account for 89.3% of the domestic total production in Q3 2025 [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the text. Core Views of the Report - The short - term outlook for the stock index is expected to be volatile. As the negative factors of trade frictions gradually ease, the stock index is expected to return to the upward channel. Even if short - term macro uncertainties increase, the adjustment space of the stock index is expected to be limited. The strategy is to go long on the stock index when opportunities arise [1]. - Different commodities have different trends. Some are expected to be volatile, some are expected to be strong, and some are influenced by multiple factors such as supply - demand, policies, and geopolitical situations [1]. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Short - term volatility, expected to return to the upward channel later, with limited adjustment space. Strategy: go long when opportunities arise [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Volatile. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - **Gold**: Short - term wide - range volatility. Geopolitical uncertainties and potential Fed rate cuts support the price, but the new round of Sino - US consultations limit the rise [1]. - **Silver**: Volatile in the short - term, and the physical situation in London needs to be monitored [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Short - term price fluctuations are intensified, but with continuous supply disturbances and an increasing Fed rate - cut expectation, it is expected to be strong [1]. - **Alumina**: With production still profitable, domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released, and production and inventory are increasing. The spot price is under pressure, and cost support needs attention [1]. - **Zinc**: After a short - term rebound, the export window closes again. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and changes in domestic and foreign inventories need attention [1]. - **Nickel**: Short - term volatility is mainly influenced by the macro situation and may be strong, but high inventory still suppresses the price. Suggestion: short - term low - buying within the range, and there is still pressure from long - term excess of primary nickel [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro situation improves, and the trade friction eases. The stainless steel futures may rebound in the short - term. It is recommended to operate in the short - term and wait for short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - **Tin**: Although the short - term impact of the Indonesian ore ban is not significant, the supply risk is high, and there is demand support. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low prices in the long - term [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The industrial driving force is unclear, and the futures valuation is low. Directional trading is not recommended [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward potential [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Direct demand is good, but supply is high, and inventory is at a high level. The price is under pressure and volatile [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Short - term production profit is poor, but cost support is strengthening, and direct demand is good. The price is expected to be volatile and the downward space is limited [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Follows the glass market, with a large supply - surplus pressure, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the price rebounded to fill the gap, it reached a relatively high level. It may challenge previous highs, but the breakthrough is difficult. It may be in a wide - range volatile market if there is no new policy on "anti - involution" [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia's plan to regulate exports is favorable for the far - month contract. The near - month contract lacks new drivers, and it is advisable to wait for the production area to reduce production and destock [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The pressure from US soybean prices and the support from domestic de - stocking expectations coexist. There is a lack of new drivers, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - **Canola Oil**: The negotiation on Canadian canola anti - dumping may bring negative news. The domestic canola is in short supply, and the inventory is decreasing. It is advisable to wait and see for single - side trading, and the inter - month positive spread is expected to rise [1]. - **Cotton**: There is uncertainty in new - year cotton demand. The downside space of the futures is limited, but the basis and the futures may be under pressure due to high production [1]. - **Sugar**: In the short - term, sugar prices are seasonally strong due to typhoon impacts and the gap between old and new crops. In the medium - term, the rebound space is limited after new sugar is listed [1]. - **Corn**: The current stage still focuses on the selling pressure in November. The C01 contract is expected to be in low - level volatility [1]. - **Methanol**: The MO1 contract is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see or go long in the short - term, and pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and South American weather [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The trading logic is related to the old warehouse receipts of the 11 - contract. With weak downstream demand, it is recommended to do a 11 - 1 reverse spread [1]. - **Logs**: The log fundamentals have declined, and the spot price is firm. It is advisable to wait and see after a sharp decline in the futures [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price has stabilized, but the futures still have a premium. It is necessary to wait for changes in the slaughter volume and weight, and the short - term trend is volatile [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: Influenced by US sanctions on Russia, geopolitical tensions, and the US attitude towards China's tariffs [1]. - **Bitumen**: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, following the trend of crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1]. - **SBS Rubber**: Supported by strong raw material costs, decreasing intermediate inventory, and a positive commodity market atmosphere [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost support is weak, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose. Attention should be paid to inventory de - stocking [1]. - **PTA**: The price rebounds slightly due to factors such as a decline in domestic production caused by equipment inspections [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory in East China is low, the cost support is strengthening, and the polyester market has not declined significantly [1]. - **Short - fiber**: Factory equipment is gradually resuming operation, the basis is strengthening, and the price follows the cost [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is weak, the arbitrage window to the US is closed, and domestic styrene plant inspections are increasing [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment eases, and domestic demand is insufficient. There is an upper limit to the price, but there is support from "anti - involution" and cost [1]. - **PE**: The price is volatile and slightly strong due to a slight downward adjustment in the crude oil price center, weakened inspection efforts, and slowly increasing downstream demand [1]. - **PP**: The inspection support is limited, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the price is volatile and weak [1]. - **PVC**: The supply pressure is large, there are many near - month warehouse receipts, and the price is volatile and weak [1]. - **LPG**: There are problems such as planned alumina production in Guangxi, decreasing inspection concentration, and difficult digestion of warehouse receipts. The international oil and gas fundamentals are loose, and the domestic fundamentals are also loose [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The provided content does not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - The stock market has seen rapid rotation of hot sectors recently, with reduced risk appetite and short - term uncertainty, but the long - term policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, suggesting a long - term strategy of buying on dips [4]. - The bond market may face short - term risk preference decline, which is conducive to its repair. In the fourth quarter, it is necessary to focus on the fundamentals and institutional allocation power. The overall situation may be volatile, and it may repair if the stock market cools down and the allocation power increases [7]. - For precious metals, the Fed's monetary policy is in the early stage of the easing cycle. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy, buying on dips [9]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, most metal prices are expected to be strong due to factors such as trade negotiation sentiment improvement and supply - side constraints [12][14]. - In the black building materials market, steel prices may be weak in the short term but have long - term upward potential. Iron ore prices will oscillate due to the tug - of - war between weak reality and macro expectations [33][36]. - In the energy and chemical market, different products have different trends. For example, rubber prices may turn neutral, and crude oil prices are recommended to be observed in the short term [54][56]. - In the agricultural products market, the prices of various products such as hogs, eggs, and grains are affected by supply and demand factors, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed [79][81]. 3. Summary by Category Macro - financial - **Stock Index** - **Market Information**: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee put forward the main goals for economic and social development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. There will be economic and trade consultations between China and the US. The R & D of new - generation batteries is being promoted [2]. - **Strategy**: Short - term uncertainty exists, but long - term buying on dips is recommended [4]. - **Treasury Bond** - **Market Information**: Bond prices declined on Thursday. There will be China - US economic and trade consultations, and the central government held a symposium on the "15th Five - Year Plan" for central enterprises. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The short - term risk preference decline is beneficial to the bond market repair. The fourth - quarter situation may be volatile, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - **Precious Metals** - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rose. The US will release September CPI data, and it is expected that the data may be lower than expected, which will support precious metal prices [8]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a long - position strategy and buy on dips [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper** - **Market Information**: Copper prices rose. LME copper inventory increased, while domestic warehouse receipts decreased. The import of copper spot was at a loss [11]. - **Strategy**: Due to potential supply tightening and improved trade negotiation sentiment, copper prices may remain strong [12]. - **Aluminum** - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices continued to rise. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories decreased, and the external LME aluminum inventory also decreased [13]. - **Strategy**: With the easing of trade tensions and low domestic inventory, aluminum prices may rise further [14]. - **Zinc** - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose. Domestic zinc ingot inventory increased, and overseas registered zinc warehouse receipts were at a low level [15]. - **Strategy**: The domestic zinc concentrate inventory decreased, and the overseas market had structural risks. Zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short term [17]. - **Lead** - **Market Information**: Lead prices rose. The lead ore port inventory increased, and the lead ingot social inventory decreased [18]. - **Strategy**: With the improvement of downstream demand and the reduction of inventory, lead prices are expected to be strong in the short term [18]. - **Nickel** - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. The cost of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron was weak [19]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying on dips if the price drops significantly [20][21]. - **Tin** - **Market Information**: Tin prices declined slightly. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand from traditional industries was weak [22]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, tin prices may remain high and volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [22]. - **Carbonate Lithium** - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium rose, and the inventory decreased [23]. - **Strategy**: The downstream demand is strong, and the price may face pressure from supply recovery and hedging. It is necessary to pay attention to market changes [24]. - **Alumina** - **Market Information**: The price of alumina rose slightly. The overseas price decreased, and the inventory increased [25]. - **Strategy**: The ore price may be under pressure after the rainy season, and the production capacity of alumina is excessive. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [26]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel rose. The social inventory decreased slightly [27]. - **Strategy**: The market confidence has recovered, and the subsequent trend depends on the release of downstream demand [28]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded, and the inventory increased [29]. - **Strategy**: The cost supports the price, but the high warehouse receipts limit the upward space [30]. Black Building Materials - **Steel** - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fluctuated slightly. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased marginally [32]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, steel prices are weak, but in the long term, they may rise due to the loosening of the macro environment [33]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose. The overseas shipment increased, and the iron water output decreased [34][35]. - **Strategy**: The demand for iron ore is weakening, and the inventory is increasing. The price will oscillate due to the influence of macro expectations [36]. - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: Glass prices rose, and the inventory increased. Soda ash prices rose slightly, and the inventory also increased [37][38]. - **Strategy**: Glass prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and soda ash prices will continue to oscillate weakly [37][38]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon** - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose slightly. The spot prices were higher than the futures prices [39]. - **Strategy**: The impact of trade frictions may ease. It is recommended to look for opportunities to rebound in the black sector [42][43]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose, and polysilicon prices also rose. The supply of industrial silicon increased, and the polysilicon supply may decrease in the future [44][47]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon prices will oscillate, and polysilicon prices will be affected by supply and policy expectations [45][48]. Energy and Chemical - **Rubber** - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rose due to typhoon and stock market factors. The demand is in a seasonal off - season [50]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to gradually exit short - term long positions and adopt a neutral strategy [54]. - **Crude Oil** - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined oil prices rose. The US crude oil inventory decreased, and the SPR inventory increased [55]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export price - support intention [56]. - **Methanol** - **Market Information**: Methanol prices rose. The port inventory increased slowly, and the domestic start - up rate decreased [57][58]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see due to potential supply disturbances and high port inventory [58]. - **Urea** - **Market Information**: Urea prices rose slightly. The supply increased, and the demand also increased [59][60]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities at low prices [60]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices decreased, and styrene prices increased. The supply of pure benzene was abundant, and the demand for styrene increased [61]. - **Strategy**: The price of styrene may stop falling in the short term due to inventory reduction and seasonal demand [62]. - **PVC** - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose. The production was high, and the demand was weak [63]. - **Strategy**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [64][65]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. The supply was high, and the inventory increased [66]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies due to expected inventory accumulation [67]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose. The supply increased slightly, and the demand remained stable [68]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see due to weak processing fees and uncertain terminal demand [69]. - **Para - xylene** - **Market Information**: PX prices rose. The load was high, and the downstream demand was weak [70][71]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see as there is no obvious driving force and it mainly follows the crude oil trend [72]. - **Polyethylene (PE)** - **Market Information**: PE prices rose. The inventory decreased, and the demand increased seasonally [73]. - **Strategy**: PE prices may remain low and oscillate due to high - level warehouse receipts and cost factors [74]. - **Polypropylene (PP)** - **Market Information**: PP prices rose. The supply pressure was high, and the demand rebounded seasonally [75]. - **Strategy**: The overall inventory pressure is high, and the cost supply surplus suppresses the price [76]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs** - **Market Information**: Hog prices fluctuated. The supply and demand were in a stalemate [78]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, hog prices may be strong, but in the medium term, it is recommended to short on rallies [79]. - **Eggs** - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with slight increases. The supply was normal, and the demand was average [80]. - **Strategy**: The spot price may have limited upward space, and it is recommended to wait and see [81]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal** - **Market Information**: Soybean meal prices rose. The domestic soybean inventory was high, and the import of US soybeans was uncertain [82]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, there is support, but in the medium term, it is recommended to short on rallies due to the expected abundant supply [84]. - **Oils and Fats** - **Market Information**: Oil prices fell. The palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia was high, and the supply pressure was large [85]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for a clearer production signal [86]. - **Sugar** - **Market Information**: Sugar prices rebounded. The production in Brazil is expected to increase, and the prices of domestic processing factories decreased [87]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter as the overall supply is expected to increase [89]. - **Cotton** - **Market Information**: Cotton prices rebounded. The new cotton purchase price increased, but the demand was weak [90]. - **Strategy**: The upward space of cotton prices is limited due to weak fundamentals [91].

多晶硅日报 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 市场表现：多晶硅主力合约价格窄幅震荡，PS2601 合约收盘价 53080 元/吨，涨 幅 1.07%，成交量 100862 手，持仓量 78928 手，净增 419 手。 现货价格：多晶硅 n 型复投料成交价格区间为 4.9-5.5 万元/吨，成交均价为 5.32 万元/吨，环比持平。 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F30 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon are currently average. For industrial silicon, the inventory increased in October, but the supply - demand situation may improve after the southwest region starts to cut production at the end of October. For polysilicon, the overall inventory pressure is high, the production reduction in October was less than expected, and the production in November may decrease, but the downstream production schedule may also weaken [3][7]. - The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets are mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment, policy - side news, and anti - involution policies. The market fluctuates greatly, and participants need to pay attention to risk management [3][7]. - The industrial silicon valuation is currently low. If there are relevant capacity - exit policies, the industrial silicon futures market may have room to rise. For polysilicon, it is suitable to layout long positions at low prices in the medium - to - long - term [3][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On October 23, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a strong and volatile trend. The main contract 2511 opened at 8,505 yuan/ton and closed at 8,705 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan/ton (2.41%) from the previous settlement price. The position of the main contract 2511 was 76,195 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 48,371 lots, a decrease of 367 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 9,300 - 9,400 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, the Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained slightly stable, and the price of 97 silicon also remained slightly stable [1]. - As of October 23, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 559,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from last week. Among them, the social general warehouse inventory was 123,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from last week, and the social delivery warehouse inventory was 436,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from last week. Recently, some goods in Xinjiang warehouses have been transferred to Tianjin, resulting in significant regional inventory changes [1]. Consumption End - The quoted price of silicone DMC was 11,000 - 11,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from last week. The mainstream transaction was concentrated at 11,000 - 11,100 yuan/ton, and the average market price decreased week - on - week. However, the quoted prices of Shandong monomer enterprises and other domestic monomer enterprises remained stable compared to last week [2]. Strategy - The current fundamentals are average. The recent increase in the start - up rate in the Northwest and the fact that the southwest region has not reached the dry season have led to a large increase in inventory in October. The intraday rebound was mainly driven by the sharp rise of commodities such as coking coal. Starting from the end of October, the southwest region will start to cut production, and the supply - demand pattern may improve. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - side news [3]. - Short - term: Operate within a range. For contracts during the dry season, consider going long on dips [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On October 23, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2511 showed a volatile trend, opening at 50,225 yuan/ton and closing at 50,760 yuan/ton, a change of 1.05% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 45,407 lots (49,016 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume was 86,148 lots [4][5]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 50.95 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg [5]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 25.80 (with a month - on - month change of 1.98%), the silicon wafer inventory was 18.47GW (a month - on - month increase of 6.70%), the weekly polysilicon output was 29,500 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 4.84%), and the silicon wafer output was 14.73GW (a month - on - month increase of 2.65%) [5]. - The prices of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 1.35 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm were 1.70 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.39 yuan/piece. The polysilicon output in October is expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, the production in the southwest region will be significantly reduced, and the output is expected to decline [5]. - The prices of battery cells and components remained stable. For example, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, and the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W [6]. Strategy - The supply - demand fundamentals of polysilicon are average, with large overall inventory pressure. The production reduction in October was less than expected, and the output in November may decrease month - on - month, but the downstream production schedule may also weaken. The warehouse receipts in November will face cancellation, which will have a certain impact on the futures market. The futures market is currently affected by anti - involution policies and weak market realities, and the policy is still being promoted, resulting in large market fluctuations [7]. - Short - term: Operate within a range. The main contract 11 will fluctuate between 49,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and the contract 12 is expected to fluctuate between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply scale of polysilicon remains large, with some companies reducing production but the amplitude falling short of expectations, leading to continued accumulation of social inventory. The number of operating companies has increased, further intensifying supply - side pressure. Demand is relatively weak, with the downstream photovoltaic industry chain having low demand. Component tender prices are continuously falling, causing delays in centralized projects and a reduction in the demand for polysilicon from silicon wafers. Although N - type silicon materials maintain a certain premium due to the increasing penetration rate of TOPCon battery technology, the price of ordinary materials is approaching the cost line, and the overall industry gross profit margin is narrowing. High inventory will exert significant downward pressure on prices next week if supply pressure continues to increase. With the expectation of the conference, polysilicon prices have risen and the increase is expected to last for some time. The operation suggestion is to buy on dips [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 50,760 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan; the main contract position is 45,407 lots, down 3,609 lots; the spread between November - December of polysilicon is - 2,395 yuan, down 35 yuan; the spread between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 42,055 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 53,000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the basis of polysilicon is 2,285 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.51 US dollars/kg, down 0.02 US dollars; the average price of cauliflower - type polysilicon is 30 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of dense - type polysilicon is 36 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of re - feed polysilicon is 34.8 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 8,705 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 76,642.01 tons, up 2,635.83 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 1,337.59 tons, up 1,220.14 tons; the monthly output of industrial silicon is 402,800 tons, up 36,000 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 130,000 tons, up 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,292 tons, up 286 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.9 US dollars/kg, up 0.01 US dollars; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2.62 US dollars/ton, down 0.25 US dollars [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 69,857,000 kilowatts, up 3,475,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 129,531,290 units, down 19,491,370 units; the monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules is 14,733,770 units, down 6,706,520 units; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.3 US dollars/unit, up 0.06 US dollars/unit; the weekly comprehensive price index (SPI) of the photovoltaic industry for polysilicon is 32.82, unchanged [2] 3.6 Industry News - According to the Silicon Industry Association, there are 11 polysilicon companies in operation this week. Based on the production plans of polysilicon companies in the fourth quarter, some production capacities in the southwest region are expected to gradually undergo maintenance and production cuts after entering the dry season in November. It is expected that October will be the peak production month of the year, and production will gradually decline from November to December. It is estimated that the annual domestic polysilicon output in 2025 will be about 1.34 million tons, a significant year - on - year decrease of 27.3% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The polysilicon industry is undergoing a critical period of structural transformation, with market dynamics closely monitored due to its significance in the photovoltaic supply chain [1]. Market Performance - The average transaction price of polysilicon remained stable week-on-week, with n-type re-investment material priced between 49,000 to 55,000 CNY per ton, averaging 53,200 CNY per ton, and n-type granular silicon priced between 50,000 to 51,000 CNY per ton, averaging 50,500 CNY per ton [1]. - Despite an increase in the number of mainstream signing companies from 2-3 to 5-6, overall market transactions remain relatively sluggish, indicating weak terminal demand [1]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand outlook for the fourth quarter is weak, with limited growth in battery component orders and stable operating rates for silicon wafer companies, leading to steady overall demand for upstream silicon materials [1]. - In the first three quarters of the year, the domestic polysilicon industry has reduced inventory by approximately 12,000 tons, but there was a slight inventory accumulation of about 12,000 tons in September [2]. - The polysilicon production is expected to peak in October, with a slight increase in output due to the resumption of production by three companies, followed by a gradual decline in November and December [2]. Production Forecast - The domestic polysilicon production for the fourth quarter is projected to be around 382,000 tons, a slight year-on-year increase of 3.0% [2]. - By 2025, the annual domestic polysilicon production is expected to be approximately 1.34 million tons, a significant year-on-year decrease of 27.3%, indicating a slight oversupply compared to demand [2]. Company Performance - Companies in the upstream sector are showing signs of performance recovery due to the ongoing "anti-involution" efforts and stabilization of industry prices [2]. - For instance, GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited reported an unaudited profit of approximately 960 million CNY in its photovoltaic materials business for the third quarter of 2025, recovering from a loss of about 1.81 billion CNY in the same period last year [2]. Pricing and Cost Analysis - In the third quarter of 2025, GCL-Poly's average external selling price for granular silicon (including tax) was 42.12 CNY per kilogram, a 30% increase from 32.93 CNY per kilogram in the second quarter [3]. - The average production cash cost for granular silicon (including R&D costs) decreased to 24.16 CNY per kilogram from 25.31 CNY per kilogram in the previous quarter, reflecting a reduction of approximately 5 percentage points [3].

Core Insights - The southwestern region of China is set to halt approximately 320,000 tons of polysilicon production, which accounts for nearly 10% of the country's total capacity, due to rising electricity prices during the dry season and recent policy meetings [1][2] - This shutdown is expected to trigger a chain reaction throughout the photovoltaic industry, marking a new phase of restructuring and potential recovery [1][2] Summary by Sections Polysilicon Production and Regional Impact - The southwestern region, rich in hydropower resources, has attracted numerous polysilicon manufacturers, creating a complete photovoltaic industry chain [1] - Seasonal fluctuations in hydropower supply have led to significant instability in energy availability, with electricity prices rising by 30%-50% during the dry season, directly impacting production costs [1][2] Economic and Employment Effects - The planned shutdown will have a substantial impact on local economies, as polysilicon companies are key providers of jobs and tax revenue [2] - The gradual approach to halting production aims to maintain operational continuity while addressing the challenging market conditions [2] Industry Overcapacity and Price Decline - The polysilicon industry is currently facing severe overcapacity, with domestic production capacity reaching 3.5 million tons against a projected global demand of only 1.5 million tons by 2026, resulting in a surplus exceeding 100% [3] - High inventory levels, estimated at 400,000 to 500,000 tons, are putting further pressure on market prices, which have dropped significantly from previous highs [3][4] Technological Advancements and Competitive Landscape - Rapid technological advancements are leading to the exit of high-cost production capacities, with leading companies achieving production costs below 40,000 yuan per ton, while outdated capacities exceed 60,000 yuan per ton [4] - The ongoing price war has severely impacted profitability, with many companies forecasting a decline in net profits of over 50% [4] Policy and Regulatory Changes - Recent government initiatives aim to address blind expansion and unhealthy competition in the photovoltaic sector, focusing on eliminating below-cost sales and phasing out outdated capacities [5][6] - New energy consumption standards are expected to reduce effective polysilicon capacity from 3.5 million tons to approximately 2.4 million tons, a decrease of about 31.4% [6] Industry Restructuring and Future Outlook - The industry is undergoing significant consolidation, with weaker companies seeking acquisition by stronger players, enhancing overall competitiveness [6][7] - The exit of high-cost capacities is anticipated to alleviate supply-demand imbalances and create market opportunities for leading firms like GCL-Poly and Tongwei [7]