Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the overall industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a trend of opening low and rising high, with the military sector remaining hot. The bond market is expected to be volatile and may strengthen in the medium term. The prices of precious metals are under pressure in the short term but may rise in the long term. The shipping index is expected to have a seasonal peak, and the prices of non-ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macroeconomics [2][6][9] Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A-share market opened low and rose high, with major indices rising. The four major stock index futures contracts also increased, but all had negative basis. The A-share trading volume decreased, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. It is recommended to sell out-of-the-money put options or go long on the June IM contract [2][3][4] - **Treasury Futures**: Treasury futures closed higher, and the yields of major interest rate bonds decreased. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the capital interest rate decreased. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the capital interest rate, fundamentals, and tariff negotiations [5][6] Precious Metals - Gold prices fell significantly due to the easing of trade risks and the outflow of long funds. Silver prices were relatively stable. In the long term, gold prices may rise due to economic recession risks and diversification needs. In the short term, they are under pressure due to the improvement of risk appetite. It is recommended to be cautious in unilateral operations or sell out-of-the-money call options [9][10][11] Container Shipping Index - The quotes of leading shipping companies were relatively stable. The SCFIS European line index decreased, while the US West line index increased. The global container shipping capacity increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US was weak. It is recommended to go long on the August contract or widen the August - June spread [12][13] Commodity Futures Non-Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper decreased, and the premium decreased. The supply was affected by the accident at the Antamina copper mine, and the demand was stable. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the pressure level of 77,500 - 78,500 [13][16][18] - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc increased, but the trading volume was poor. The supply of zinc ore was loose, but the production of refined zinc was affected by maintenance. The demand was weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the range of 21,500 - 23,500 [18][19][21] - **Tin**: The spot price of tin increased, and the trading volume increased slightly. The supply of tin ore was tight, but the supply is expected to recover. The demand was improved by policies, but the outlook is pessimistic. It is recommended to have a short - biased view on rebounds [21][22][23] - **Nickel**: The spot price of nickel decreased, and the trading volume was average. The supply of nickel ore was tight, and the price of nickel iron decreased. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 122,000 - 128,000 [23][26] - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price of stainless steel was stable, and the trading volume was poor. The supply was excessive, and the demand was slowly recovering. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 12,600 - 13,000 [27][29] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price of lithium carbonate decreased, and the trading volume was light. The supply increased, and the demand was average. The price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 63,000 - 68,000 [31][34] Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot price of steel decreased, and the production was high. The demand decreased during the May Day holiday, and the inventory increased. The profit of blast furnace steel mills was stable, while that of electric furnace steel mills was in loss. It is recommended to wait and see in unilateral operations and pay attention to the arbitrage operation of going long on steel and short on raw materials [35][36] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore decreased, and the futures price also decreased. The demand for iron ore was high, but the supply increased. The inventory decreased slightly. The price is expected to be under pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to the policy and the terminal demand of steel products [37][38] - **Coke**: The spot price of coke had demand support, but the second price increase was blocked. The supply increased, and the demand was stable. The inventory decreased. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke [39][40][41] - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of coking coal decreased, and the futures price also decreased. The supply was high, and the demand was average. The inventory was high. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal [42][44] - **Silicon Iron**: The spot price of silicon iron was stable, and the futures price increased slightly. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was weak. The price is expected to fluctuate [45][46] - **Manganese Silicon**: The spot price of manganese silicon decreased, and the futures price increased slightly. The supply decreased, and the demand increased slightly. The inventory increased. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [48][50] Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The price of US soybeans fluctuated, and the price of domestic soybean meal followed weakly. The domestic soybean meal market price was mixed, and the trading volume increased. The supply of US soybeans was sufficient, and the domestic soybean arrival was abundant. It is recommended to pay attention to the support near 2,900 [51][53] - **Hogs**: The spot price of hogs fluctuated slightly. The supply of hogs was stable, and the demand was weak. The price is expected to remain volatile, and it is recommended to pay attention to the performance of secondary fattening and slaughter [54][55] - **Corn**: The spot price of corn was strong, and the price was in a high - level shock. The supply of corn was tight, and the demand was limited. The price is expected to be supported in the long term but may be under pressure in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips [57][58] - **Sugar**: The price of raw sugar fluctuated weakly, and the domestic sugar price followed. The supply of sugar was expected to increase, and the domestic supply - demand situation was loose. It is recommended to have a short - biased view on rebounds in the medium - long term [59]

Report Overview - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report - Date: May 7, 2025 - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team of CCB Futures 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The nickel market fundamentals are mixed. The surplus trend of primary nickel is difficult to reverse, but the support from the mining end is strong. In addition, the short - term supply pressure of intermediates has eased. The market is expected to be volatile and strong. It is recommended to go long at low levels and be vigilant against macro risks [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - During the May Day holiday, LME nickel first declined and then rose due to macro factors. After the holiday, SHFE nickel was strong among non - ferrous metals, closing at 124,630 with a 0.48% increase, and the total index positions decreased by 1,617 to 155,125 lots [8]. - The spot market was average, and the premiums remained stable. The Jinchuan premium was flat at 2,250 yuan/ton, and the Russian nickel premium was 100 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamentally, supported by the Indonesian PNBP royalty increase policy, the premium of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore remained high. Although the HPM of nickel ore in May may decline slightly, it is still likely to rise in the future. For nickel sulfate, the reduction of Indonesian MHP and high - grade nickel matte projects led to tight raw material supply and stronger cost support, with the average price on the 6th increasing to 28,085 yuan/ton and expected to rise moderately [8]. - In terms of inventory, although the inventory accumulation trend continued, the LME and domestic inventories were decreasing marginally, providing short - term support for nickel prices [8]. 3.2 Industry News - IWIP emphasized the importance of occupational health and safety, organized a series of activities in April, and aimed to create a safe work environment [9][11]. - GFNI exported 56,625 wet metric tons of low - grade nickel ore to Indonesia on April 30, 2025. It plans to complete 91 shipments of 5 million WMT in 2025, with an expected revenue increase in double - digits due to capacity expansion and efficiency improvement [10]. - In Q1 2025, PT Vale Indonesia's nickel intermediate production was 17,027 metric tons, a 6% year - on - year and 8% quarter - on - quarter decline. Sales were 206.5 million US dollars, lower than the previous quarter due to reduced shipments and a 5% drop in the average nickel price. It also started commercial sales of about 80,000 tons of saprolite ore to domestic buyers and plans to increase sales to 290,000 tons in H1 2025 [11]. - SMM expects the HPM of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore to decline by 3.16% in the first half of May compared to the previous period [12].

据《日本经济新闻》5月5日报道，第28届东盟与中日韩（10+3）财长和央行行长会议4日在意大利米兰 举行。会议发表联合声明说，"贸易保护主义加剧将成为全球贸易的重负，导致经济分裂"，并对美国特 朗普政府的关税政策表示警惕。 当地时间5月4日,第28届东盟与中日韩 (10+3) 财长和央行行长会议在意大利米兰举 行,主要讨论全球和区域宏观经济形势、10+3 区域财金合作等议题,并发表了联合声明。 中国财政部部长蓝佛安、中国人民银行行长潘 功胜与马来西亚财政部第二部长阿米尔 ·哈姆扎 · 阿齐赞、马来西亚中央银行行长阿卜杜勒呼婷 东盟与中日韩财长和央行行长会议在意 大利举行 央视新闻 2025-05-05 16:31 北京 中央广播电视总台 ... △意大利米兰(资料图) 全球经济被"关税游戏"玩坏了 要说特朗普的关税哲学，简直魔幻。按他的逻辑，只要给进口商品贴上"25%起步价"，美国工厂就能原 地复活，就业岗位立马上涨。可现实呢？还没等到产业复活，先等到了美国农业部门遭受巨大损失。联 合国秘书长古特雷斯都忍不住吐槽："贸易战没有赢家，这是全球经济的灾难"。 更绝的是特朗普式的反复横跳，今天豁免韩国钢铁，明天威胁 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [4]. Core Insights - The lithium business, particularly the Greenbushes lithium mine, has shown significant growth in sales volume, with a 100% year-on-year increase in Q1 2025 [1]. - The average realized price for lithium concentrate increased by 7.47% quarter-on-quarter, reaching 791 USD/ton [1]. - The Kwinana lithium hydroxide plant's production volume increased by 64% year-on-year, although it only operated at 26% of its nominal capacity due to unplanned downtime [6][8]. - The nickel production from the Nova project saw a 23% quarter-on-quarter increase, although it experienced a 9% year-on-year decrease [9]. Summary by Sections Lithium Business - Greenbushes lithium mine produced 341,000 tons of spodumene in Q1 2025, a 22% year-on-year increase, but a 13% decrease from the previous quarter [1]. - The sales volume of lithium concentrate reached 366,000 tons, reflecting a 100% year-on-year growth and a 17% quarter-on-quarter increase [1]. - The unit cash production cost for lithium was 341 AUD/ton, a 12% decrease year-on-year but a 5% increase quarter-on-quarter [2]. Kwinana Lithium Hydroxide Plant - The plant produced 1,562 tons of lithium hydroxide in Q1 2025, a 64% year-on-year increase but a 2% decrease from the previous quarter [6]. - Sales volume for lithium hydroxide was 2,304 tons, marking a 178% quarter-on-quarter increase [7]. - The processing cost per ton decreased by 29% to 21,585 AUD, influenced by reduced expenditures and previous maintenance costs [7]. Nickel Business - Nova Project - Nickel production in Q1 2025 was 4,179 tons, a 23% increase from the previous quarter but a 9% decrease year-on-year [9]. - The average realized nickel price increased by 4% to 25,067 AUD/ton, contributing to an 8% increase in sales revenue to 109.8 million AUD [11]. - The unit cash cost for nickel was 5.12 AUD/pound, a 30% decrease quarter-on-quarter [9]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 was 110.7 million AUD, a 16% decrease quarter-on-quarter and a 31% decrease year-on-year [14]. - The underlying EBITDA improved to 34 million AUD from a loss of 79 million AUD in the previous quarter [14]. - The cash balance at the end of Q1 2025 was 284.3 million AUD, an increase from 246.6 million AUD at the end of Q4 2024 [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel prices rebounded after an over - decline and returned to the oscillation range. In May, the price may fluctuate between 118,000 - 128,000 yuan. A mid - term strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended. For options, selling deep out - of - the - money options in the range is advised [6][7][8]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to decline with oscillations. A strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Nickel - In April, nickel prices experienced a roller - coaster ride. LME nickel prices dropped 14.5% in 4 trading days due to US tariffs. Domestic nickel prices had a gap - down due to the Tomb - sweeping Festival, but then rebounded. The rebound was due to its large elasticity, the implementation of Indonesia's new policy increasing production costs, and the decline in MHP output [4]. - In early April, domestic nickel supply was tight, with Jinchuan nickel premiums rising above 3,000 yuan/ton and import losses narrowing. However, after mid - April, spot demand weakened. In May, nickel ore shipments from Indonesia and the Philippines may increase, and downstream prices may decline, leading to a price game between upstream and downstream. Pure nickel supply is expected to increase slightly in May, while demand may decline slightly but still show a stable - to - rising trend due to the peak season [5]. 3.1.2 Stainless Steel - In April, stainless steel prices fell after nickel prices dropped. The decline was less than that of nickel. The procurement price of NPI fell below 1,000 yuan/nickel point, and the cost support for stainless steel in May moved down. On the demand side, tariffs may affect exports, and the export production schedule of white goods may decline after May. On the supply side, some large steel mills reduced production or switched production in April, and partial复产 is expected in May [11]. 3.2 Market and Raw Materials 3.2.1 Pure Nickel Market - As of April 25, global visible nickel inventories decreased by 1,096 tons compared to the end of March. LME inventories increased by 3,546 tons, while SHFE inventories decreased by 7,338 tons. Domestic spot imports had a reduced loss, and the spot market premium strengthened. China's refined nickel imports increased significantly in January and then returned to normal levels. Exports were mainly to Asian countries and regions. In April, net exports were expected to decrease further [16]. 3.2.2 Stainless Steel Market - After the decline in nickel prices in April, stainless steel prices also fell. The NPI procurement price dropped, and the cost support for stainless steel in May moved down. Stainless steel prices oscillated downward in the game between production cuts by steel mills and tariff impacts [22]. 3.2.3 Indonesia's Nickel Policy - Indonesia's new nickel policy took effect on April 26, 2025. The nickel ore royalty rate increased from 10% to 14% (for nickel prices below $18,000), and the ice - nickel royalty rate increased from 2% to 3.5%. The new policy increased the production cost of NPI and high - grade nickel ice, but some smelters are still in the tax - exemption period. The implementation of the policy may lead to a loosening of nickel ore prices in May if the annual quota approval does not change significantly [23][24]. 3.2.4 Nickel Iron Market - In May, nickel iron prices fell, and nickel iron plants faced production pressure and may cut production to force nickel ore prices down. China and Indonesia's combined nickel iron production from January to March increased by 20% year - on - year, with Indonesia's production increasing by 25%. In April, Indonesia's nickel iron production increased slightly [36]. 3.2.5 Chromium - based Raw Materials Market - Chromium ore prices have been rising for 2 months, and the cost support for high - carbon ferrochrome has increased. With high stainless steel production schedules, the demand for ferrochrome from steel mills is strong, leading to price increases. In April, the long - term procurement price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group for May increased by 500 yuan compared to the previous month [43]. 3.2.6 Nickel Sulfate Market - For ternary cathode factories with a high export proportion, orders from South Korea decreased in April. Ternary cathode factories focusing on the domestic market were less affected. Nickel sulfate prices have been slightly declining since April, indicating weak demand [55]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Fundamentals 3.3.1 Pure Nickel - Overseas nickel companies' Q1 reports showed that Vale's nickel production increased, while Norilsk Nickel's production decreased slightly. SMM statistics showed that China's refined nickel production from January to March increased by 26% year - on - year, and it is expected to remain stable in April. In May, supply is expected to remain high, while demand may decline after June. The domestic refined nickel market is in surplus, and the surplus has been transferred to LME inventories. However, with the recovery of domestic demand, imports are expected to increase [60][61]. 3.3.2 Stainless Steel - The market is worried about tariffs, which has led to a decline in market confidence. The IMF has lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025. Domestically, policies aim to boost consumption and expand domestic demand. From January to April 2024, the combined stainless steel production of China and Indonesia increased by 11% year - on - year. Currently, some steel mills have production reduction plans, but overall production remains high. The demand for stainless steel is the key factor affecting the market, and a lack of demand may lead to a negative feedback loop [68][83]. 3.3.3 New Energy Vehicles - From April 1 - 20, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China increased by 20% year - on - year but decreased by 11% month - on - month. The global new energy vehicle sales from January to February 2025 increased by 33.7% year - on - year. The growth rate in Europe and the US has slowed down. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to March increased by 43% year - on - year. After April, the overseas new energy vehicle market may be affected by the trade war, and high cobalt prices may suppress the demand for ternary batteries [87][96]. 3.3.4 Differentiation of Primary Nickel and Pure Nickel Supply - Demand - In April, the supply - demand of refined nickel in China remained basically unchanged, and inventories increased slowly. The WBMS report showed a global refined nickel supply surplus of 0.83 million tons from January to February 2025. After May, supply will remain high, while demand may decline from the peak season to the off - season. Nickel prices may fluctuate between 118,000 - 128,000 yuan [110].

Core Viewpoint - The Indonesian government has raised the royalty tax rates for various minerals, particularly nickel, which has significant implications for the global mining market and may increase operational costs for mining companies [1][3]. Group 1: Tax Rate Changes - The nickel royalty tax rate has been increased from a fixed rate of 10% to a variable rate of 14% to 19%, depending on nickel price fluctuations [1]. - This change is part of a broader adjustment that includes increased taxes on coal, copper, and gold, impacting multiple sectors within the mining industry [1]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The new regulations are expected to burden companies, potentially leading to reduced production or even mine closures, particularly as they coincide with a downturn in commodity prices [3]. - The increase in operational costs due to the tax hike, along with other new regulations such as VAT increases and higher biodiesel usage ratios, is likely to squeeze profit margins for mining companies [3]. - The requirement for natural resource exporters to retain more overseas income domestically for at least one year is expected to pressure cash flows for mining firms [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - Concerns have been raised about the potential decline in Indonesia's competitiveness in the global nickel market, which could deter foreign investment and lead to significant layoffs [3]. - Despite record foreign investments in Indonesia's nickel industry in recent years, the tax increase has sparked doubts about future investment prospects amid weak metal prices and regulatory pressures [3].

然而，报道指出，提高镍业税之际，镍生产商正在应对金属价格下跌和印尼其他最近法规带来的更高成 本。 4月29日，据英国金融时报报道，印尼政府上周末提高了镍、煤炭、铜、黄金和其它矿产的特许权使用 费税率，此举影响到淡水河谷和自由港麦克莫兰等全球最大的矿业集团。 印尼矿业协会执行董事Hendra Sinadia警告称，"这是一个额外的负担，尤其是因为该法规是在大宗商品 价格下行期间出台的。"他并指出： 矿企运营成本将上升，利润将受到打击。有些公司可能不得不减少生产，甚至关闭矿山。 报道称，目前，财政紧张的印尼政府正寻求增加收入，为雄心勃勃的支出计划提供资金。由于印尼总统 Prabowo Subianto推出为学童和孕妇提供免费餐食的280亿美元计划，该国的财政状况一直处于紧张状 态。 政府已启动190亿美元的紧缩计划，为总统的政策腾出资金，并正努力增加国家收入。今年前两个月， 印尼国家收入同比下降了五分之一，这让人们更加质疑Prabowo将如何为其计划提供资金。该国的财政 健康状况，也成为引发股市抛售的原因之一。 行业警告矿产投资热情可能减退 大宗商品是印尼经济的支柱，也是经济增长的重要贡献者。特别是该国的镍产业近 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes various financial derivatives and commodity futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, agricultural products, etc. The overall market is affected by factors such as Trump's statement on tariff reduction, Fed's economic "Beige Book", and supply - demand fundamentals of different commodities. Suggestions for different products range from trading strategies like selling out - of - the - money put options, to long - short strategies and interval operations [2][3][5]. Summary according to the Table of Contents Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The export chain is picking up, and the trading sentiment of the index has risen. Although most of the four major stock index futures contracts fell, the A - share market may trade on the potential incremental stimulus policies from the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options to earn premiums [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and the MLF roll - over. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the short term and may rise after the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Suggested strategies include interval operations, positive spread arbitrage for TS contracts, and steepening the yield curve [5][6]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold and silver prices showed a differentiated trend. Gold continued to correct, while silver strengthened due to its industrial properties. In the long - term, gold still has upward momentum, but in the short term, it may be volatile. Silver is expected to fluctuate in the range of $32 - 34. It is recommended to hold long positions in silver lightly [9][10][11]. Shipping Index (European Line) - **SCFIS**: The spot prices of some leading shipping companies have adjusted, and the shipping index has shown different trends. The market expects the supply - demand situation to improve in May, and the news of tariff reduction may boost the market. It is recommended to take a long position and consider widening the spread between August and June contracts [12][13]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper has increased, and the supply of copper mines is tight. The demand side is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 76,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton [14][17][18]. - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc has increased, and the supply of zinc mines is abundant. The demand side is weak after the peak season. The zinc price may fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach in the medium - long term [19][20][21]. - **Tin**: The supply side is gradually recovering, and the demand side is uncertain. It is recommended to hold short positions on rebounds, with the short - term view of high - level fluctuations [21][22][23]. - **Nickel**: The market sentiment is stable, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate. The cost has a certain support, but the medium - term supply is abundant. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [24][25][26]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market sentiment has recovered, but the fundamentals still have pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,000 yuan/ton [27][28][29]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply pressure is obvious, and the demand is general. The inventory is high. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 66,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton [30][31][33]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The peak of apparent demand has passed, and the cold - hot spread is narrowing. The supply is high, and the demand is expected to weaken in the second quarter. The inventory has decreased. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the support at the previous low for the long - steel short - ore strategy [34][35][36]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price rebounded due to macro factors. The iron water output is high, and the supply is expected to increase. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [37][38]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase has been implemented, and the second round may be proposed this week. The supply and demand situation has improved marginally. It is recommended to hold the long - coke short - coking coal strategy [39][40][41]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction has weakened again, and the inventory is high. The price may still fall. It is recommended to use arbitrage strategies and continue to hold the long - coke short - coking coal strategy [42][43][44]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The price has decreased compared with the previous period. The supply has decreased, and the demand has increased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [45][46][47]. - **Manganese Silico - manganese**: The steel procurement price has decreased. The supply has decreased, and the demand has also decreased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [48][50][51]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The domestic soybean meal basis is strong, while the US soybean lacks upward momentum. The Brazilian supply pressure is still being realized. It is recommended to close short positions and consider long - term long positions at low prices [52][53][54]. - **Pigs**: The consumption support is insufficient. The spot price fluctuates. It is necessary to pay attention to the performance of second - round fattening pigs' sales. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,000 - 14,800 yuan/ton [55][56][57]. - **Corn**: The spot price is stable and strong. The supply is tightening in the long - term, but the short - term increase is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [58]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price fluctuates weakly, and the domestic sugar price maintains a high - level shock. The market expects an increase in production in the 25/26 season, which will suppress the price in the long - term [59]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton is bottom - oscillating, and the domestic demand has no obvious increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the weather and macro factors [61].