聚酯产业风险管理日报：需求预期转弱，持货意愿降低 2025/06/04 【利多解读 】 【利空解读】 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 周嘉伟（期货从业证号：F03133676） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚酯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 乙二醇 | 4150-4650 | 19.37% | 46.3% | | PX | 6300-6900 | 23.62% | 79.7% | | PTA | 4400-4900 | 22.24% | 64.7% | | 瓶片 | 5700-6250 | 18.11% | 61.0% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚酯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No clear industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View of the Report - The view is to hold positions firmly. Although the reasons for the bond market's rise today seem unconvincing and further observation is needed, the current interest rate level and capital center are still favorable for allocation funds, and long - position holders should hold their chips [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Disk Review - Treasury bond futures opened higher and then declined in the morning, fluctuated narrowly in the afternoon, and rallied across the board at the close. The capital interest rate remained low, with the overnight DR closing below 1.4%. The open market had a net withdrawal of 600 million yuan, and liquidity remained abundant [1] 2. Intraday News - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development organized the 2025 evaluation of central - fiscal support for urban renewal actions. 20 cities are proposed to be supported, including Beijing, Tianjin, Tangshan, etc. [2] 3. Market Judgment - The bond market trading has been relatively dull recently. After the adjustment of deposit interest rates, the bulls lack sufficient upward momentum. Neither data releases nor capital levels can truly constitute negative factors. In this uncertain environment, short - term factors such as CD price increases and the seesaw effect of risk assets have an amplified impact on the market. The reasons for the bond market's rise today seem unconvincing, and further observation is needed [3] 4. Data Overview - **Contract Prices and Changes**: TS2509 rose 0.04 to 102.392, TF2509 rose 0.05 to 106.01, T2509 rose 0.06 to 108.73, and TL2509 rose 0.05 to 119.5 [4] - **Contract Positions and Changes**: TS contract positions decreased by 1185 to 119,964 hands, TF contract positions increased by 1800 to 164,943 hands, T contract positions increased by 4148 to 194,988 hands, and TL contract positions increased by 1114 to 114,724 hands [4] - **Basis and Changes**: TS basis (CTD) rose 0.0086 to - 0.0741, TF basis (CTD) rose 0.0091 to - 0.0175, T basis (CTD) rose 0.0683 to 0.023, and TL basis (CTD) fell 0.0567 to 0.4113 [4] - **Transaction Volume and Changes**: TS main contract trading volume decreased by 6072 to 31,202 hands, TF main contract trading volume decreased by 1213 to 46,001 hands, T main contract trading volume increased by 12841 to 55,709 hands, and TL main contract trading volume increased by 9425 to 70,260 hands [4] - **DR Interest Rates and Changes**: DR001 fell 0.0686 to 1.4136%, DR007 fell 0.1149 to 1.5496%, and DR014 fell 0.1392 to 1.5844% [4] - **DR Transaction Amounts and Changes**: DR001 transaction amount increased by 7904.9392 billion yuan to 24,426.9455 billion yuan, DR007 transaction amount increased by 254.423 billion yuan to 1075.1885 billion yuan, and DR014 transaction amount increased by 36.574 billion yuan to 122.9315 billion yuan [4]

Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The log market is expected to continue its weak and volatile pattern. It is recommended to operate within a range, focusing on high - selling and low - buying. With 14 days remaining until the option expiration, attention should be paid to the subsequent decay of time value. It is advised to sell lg2507C800 at high prices and lg2507P750 at low prices. If the market drops significantly, consider buying lg2507C775 at low prices. The 09 contract, corresponding to a relatively seasonal peak season, presents a chance to buy on dips [4]. Summary by Relevant Content Log Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 740 - 800. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 16.28%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility over 3 years is 67.4% [2]. Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - When log imports are high and inventory is at a peak, and there are concerns about price drops, for long - position inventory, it is recommended to short log futures (lg2507) at a 25% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 800 - 785. Also, buy put options (lg2507P775) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 9.5 - 14 and sell call options (lg2507C800) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 4.5 - 7.5 to lock in profits and cover production costs [2]. Procurement Management - When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is to be done based on orders, for short - position inventory, it is recommended to buy log futures (lg2507) at a 50% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 750 - 800. Sell put options (lg2507P750) at a 75% hedging ratio with an entry range of 5.5 - 12 to prevent cost increases due to price hikes and lock in the purchase price [2]. Market Conditions of Contracts - The 09 contract increased its positions by 1758 lots, dropped 1.2%, and broke through support levels, but its total open interest is still less than 10,000 lots, indicating weak liquidity and poor market - taking ability. The 07 contract reduced its positions by 829 lots, dropping 0.98%. The main contract will gradually shift to the 09 contract this month, and attention should be paid to the monthly spread changes brought about by the position - shifting [3]. Supply and Demand - In the 22nd week, 11 vessels of New Zealand logs are expected to arrive at 18 ports, 2 more than last week, a week - on - week increase of 22%. The total arrival volume is about 372,000 cubic meters, 33,000 cubic meters more than last week, a week - on - week increase of 10%. There is currently no sign of a decrease in arrivals. The ex - works price in May was 110 US dollars, with brisk transactions, and it is expected that arrivals will remain high. June - July is the off - season for downstream consumption, and there is expected to be some pressure on the outbound volume. The latest ex - works price is 110 - 112 US dollars, a 2 - dollar increase from the previous period. There are no signs of a weakening in foreign quotes. Traders' losses have not been recovered, and they have the intention to jointly support prices. The futures price is at a discount, and there is no profit in selling for hedging, so there is no strong motivation to sell on the futures market [4]. Factors Affecting the Market Bullish Factors - Traders have the intention to jointly support prices due to continuous import losses, macro - policy efforts, and an overall improvement in commodity sentiment [7]. Bearish Factors - Demand is weaker than expected, and the goods movement is slow. There will be an increase in subsequent shipments [7]. Price and Data Overview - The report provides price data for various types of logs at different ports, including 3.9m medium (3.8A) logs at Rizhao Port, 4m medium (3.8A) logs at Taicang Port, etc., along with the calculation method for the basis [8]. - It also presents a comprehensive overview of log data, such as radiation pine imports, port inventories in different regions, daily average outbound volumes at ports, import profits of radiation pine and spruce, and prices of major spot logs [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - The stock index has risen for two consecutive days, but the trading volume in the two markets has not significantly increased, and the basis of index futures has not changed much. Compared with last Friday, the discount has deepened, so market sentiment has not significantly improved. The overseas tariff war continues, and there are many uncertainties in the external environment, which suppresses the A-share market. It is expected that a continuous upward trend is difficult to form. The Lujiazui Forum will be held from June 18th to 19th, and several financial policies will be released. The expectation of policy benefits provides some support for the index, and the downside space is limited. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate within a range. A breakthrough requires a more definite change in the external environment or the implementation of the next round of domestic favorable policies [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The stock index closed higher today. Taking the CSI 300 Index as an example, it rose 0.43% at the close. In terms of capital, the trading volume in the two markets increased by 1.16 billion yuan. Index futures rose with shrinking volume [4] Important Information - The US side claimed that China violated the consensus reached at the Geneva talks. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated that the Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesperson had previously clarified China's solemn position. The Geneva consensus was reached by China and the US under the principles of mutual respect and equal consultation. - US President Trump announced that the tariffs on imported steel, aluminum and their derivative products would be raised from 25% to 50%, effective at 00:01 on June 4, 2025, Eastern Time. The tariffs on steel and aluminum imported from the UK will remain at 25% [5] Strategy Recommendation - Hold positions and wait and see [7] Index Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.41 | 0.16 | 0.76 | 0.82 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 6.9824 | 3.1907 | 5.809 | 15.1505 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | -0.5368 | -0.8162 | -1.129 | -1.2982 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 22.9448 | 7.8806 | 20.6376 | 31.5489 | | Open interest change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | -0.6744 | -0.3071 | -0.7279 | -0.5633 | [8] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.42 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 0.87 | | Ratio of rising stocks to falling stocks | 3.20 | | Trading volume in the two markets (100 million yuan) | 11530.47 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (100 million yuan) | 116.38 | [9]

南华期货（603093）指出，蒙古经济对煤炭出口依赖度高，加征资源税可能导致蒙煤出口收缩，但消息 真实性未证实。焦煤销售不畅，需求走弱，库存压力大，进口窗口难以打开，供需矛盾需供给侧及进口 限制改善，维持反弹布空思路。 6月4日，国内期市煤炭板块多数飘红。其中，焦煤期货主力合约开盘报721.0元/吨，今日盘中高位震荡 运行；截至午间收盘，焦煤主力最高触及743.0元，下方探低721.0元，涨幅达2.16%。 恒泰期货分析称，供应上，海外方面，中蒙边境口岸的焦煤供应环比季节性上升，但口岸贸易商出货量 不佳，蒙煤口岸库存仍较高。进口澳煤的性价比减弱，澳煤进口量有所回落。国内方面，产地煤矿点陆 续复工复产，110家洗煤厂开工率和产能利用率有所上升，焦煤整体供应趋于宽松。需求上，钢厂持续 向上游焦企寻求利润，焦炭第二轮提降开启，周内长流程铁水见顶回落，炉料端成本支撑减弱，黑链存 负反馈格局预期。终端需求成色是焦煤基本面调整的核心，焦煤供需趋于宽松，叠加宏观利多因素已在 盘面兑现，黑链交易逻辑再度切换为基本面驱动，但当前市场情绪受蒙古国政治变动影响，预计焦煤价 格短期反弹，建议交易者中期逢反弹做空。 华联期货表示，双焦 ...

Report Summary - Investment Rating: Firmly Hold [1] - Core View: Despite ongoing external disturbances such as tariffs and geopolitical disputes, the domestic market has become largely desensitized. The short - end of the market performed the worst today, possibly due to concerns about banks' liability side. It is recommended to extend the duration appropriately and take long positions with light positions [1][3] Market Conditions - Treasury Futures: The treasury futures fluctuated within a narrow range throughout the day, with most contracts ending in the red. Only the ultra - long - end contracts closed up. After the cross - month period, the capital interest rates dropped significantly, with DR001 weighted average close to 1.4%. In the open market, 830 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase expired, and the central bank conducted 454.5 billion yuan in new operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 375.5 billion yuan [1] - Economic Forecast: The OECD released an economic outlook report on the 3rd, predicting that the US economic growth rate will be 1.6% this year, a 0.6 - percentage - point downgrade from the March forecast, making it one of the major economies with a significant slowdown in growth [2] Data Overview Futures Contracts - TS2509: Closing price 102.352, down 0.046 from the previous trading day; Open interest 121,149, up 1,653 [4] - TF2509: Closing price 105.96, down 0.045; Open interest 163,143, up 899 [4] - T2509: Closing price 108.67, down 0.045; Open interest 190,840, up 77 [4] - TL2509: Closing price 119.45, up 0.04; Open interest 113,610, up 84 [4] Basis and Trading Volume - TS Basis (CTD): - 0.0827, down 0.0033; Trading volume 37,274, up 2,847 [4] - TF Basis (CTD): - 0.0266, up 0.0131; Trading volume 47,214, down 7,839 [4] - T Basis (CTD): - 0.0453, down 0.3965; Trading volume 42,868, down 19,601 [4] - TL Basis (CTD): 0.468, down 0.2; Trading volume 60,835, down 10,208 [4] Capital Interest Rates - DR001: Weighted average 1.4822, up 0.0698; Trading volume 16,522.0063 billion yuan, unchanged [4] - DR007: Weighted average 1.6645, up 0.0315; Trading volume 820.7655 billion yuan, unchanged [4] - DR014: Weighted average 1.7236, up 0.0051; Trading volume 86.3575 billion yuan, unchanged [4]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - The latest manufacturing PMI in May remained below 50, indicating the impact of tariffs on the domestic economy, but China's economic resilience is strong. Overseas, the US-EU tariff war has escalated, and there is still significant uncertainty in China-US tariff negotiations, which suppresses the A-share market. The upcoming Lujiazui Forum is expected to release financial policies, providing some support to the index. In the short term, the index faces both upward pressure and downward support, and a breakthrough requires external certainties or new domestic favorable policies. The recommended strategy is to hold positions and wait and see [6] Market Review - The stock index opened lower and closed higher today. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed up 0.31%. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 2231 million yuan. All stock index futures rose with increased volume [4] Important Information - In May, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points; the composite PMI was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points. The new export order index and import index increased by 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points respectively, and the foreign trade situation of some US-related enterprises improved [5] - US President Trump announced raising the import steel tariff from 25% to 50% starting from June 4. The EU is in the final consultation on expanding countermeasures, and if no solution is reached, existing and additional measures will take effect on July 14 or earlier [5] - The US Trade Representative's Office extended the exemption period for the 301 investigation on China from May 31 to August 31 [5] Index Futures Data Futures Market | Index | Main Contract Intraday Change (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | Trading Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | 0.11 | 7.5192 | -1.3852 | 23.6192 | 0.5468 | | IH | 0.05 | 4.0069 | -0.9296 | 8.1877 | 0.1863 | | IC | 0.33 | 6.938 | -0.909 | 21.3655 | 0.6257 | | IM | 0.68 | 16.4487 | -2.3121 | 32.1122 | 0.3188 | [7] Spot Market | Indicator | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Change (%) | 0.43 | | Shenzhen Component Index Change (%) | 0.16 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 1.90 | | Trading Volume of the Two Markets (100 million yuan) | 11414.09 | | Trading Volume MoM (100 million yuan) | 22.31 | [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - Glass: If glass prices remain low, attention should be paid to the increase in cold repair expectations. Although glass valuation is relatively low, short - term fundamentals and cost support are weak [3]. -纯碱: The pressure on the futures market continues. Newly invested production capacity may gradually release output, and maintenance has not provided short - term support. With the cost decline, there is still profit in the industrial chain. It should be treated bearishly, and for the continuous downward momentum of the soda ash price, soda ash plants need to further reduce prices [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Volatility - Glass price monthly forecast is in the range of 900 - 1200, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.74% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 46.0% [2]. - Soda ash price monthly forecast is in the range of 1100 - 1350, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 24.40% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 26.3% [2]. 3.2 Hedging Strategies - For glass inventory management: When the glass inventory is high and there is a concern about price decline, 50% of FG2509 can be sold at 1100; 50% of FG509 C1200 can be sold at 20 - 30 to collect option premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2]. - For soda ash inventory management: When the soda ash inventory is high and there is a concern about price decline, 50% of SA2509 can be sold at 1300; 50% of SA509 C1300 can be sold at 30 - 40 to collect option premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2]. 3.3 Market Analysis 3.3.1 Core Contradictions - Glass: The industrial chain faces overcapacity pressure in the future; it is in the off - season of demand with weak expectations, but no new cold repair expectations have been triggered [3]. - Soda ash: There is a consistent expectation of overcapacity, and there are still new production capacities to be put into operation in the long - term; the cost is continuously decreasing, and there is still profit in the industrial chain [3]. 3.3.2 Bullish Factors - Glass: The supply remains in a low - level fluctuation state; the futures price is approaching the full - industrial - chain loss state, and the cold repair expectation will increase at low prices [3]. - Soda ash: Factory maintenance from May to June has been gradually implemented; export is better than expected, alleviating the domestic overcapacity pressure [3]. 3.3.3 Bearish Factors - Glass: There is still an expectation of furnace ignition on the supply side, and no large - scale cold repair is expected; the actual demand is weak; the overall social inventory is high, and the off - season is coming [3]. - Soda ash: New production capacities continue to be put into operation; the social inventory is at an absolute historical high; there is still profit in the industrial chain [3]. 3.4 Price and Spread Data 3.4.1 Glass - On June 3, 2025, the price of glass 05 contract was 1069, down 27 (-2.46%) from May 30; the price of 09 contract was 954, down 28 (-2.85%); the price of 01 contract was 1014, down 29 (-2.78%) [3][5]. - The 5 - 9 month spread was 115, up 1; the 9 - 1 month spread was - 60, up 1; the 1 - 5 month spread was - 55, down 2 [5]. - The 05 contract basis in Shahe was 62, unchanged; the 09 contract basis in Hubei was 86, up 28 [5]. - The average price of Shahe delivery products was 1130.8, unchanged. The prices in some regions decreased, such as - 20 in North China, - 10 in Northeast China, etc. [6]. 3.4.2 Soda Ash - On June 3, 2025, the price of soda ash 05 contract was 1221, down 18 (-1.45%) from May 30; the price of 09 contract was 1185, down 14 (-1.17%); the price of 01 contract was 1175, down 17 (-1.43%) [7]. - The 5 - 9 month spread was 36, down 4 (-10%); the 9 - 1 month spread was 10, up 3 (42.86%); the 1 - 5 month spread was - 46, up 1 (-2.13%) [7]. - The Shahe heavy - alkali basis was 50, up 10; the Qinghai heavy - alkali basis was - 105, down 6 [7]. - The heavy - alkali market prices in some regions decreased, such as - 50 in North China, - 20 in East China, etc. [7].

Group 1: Report Summary - The monthly price range forecast for the asphalt main contract is 3400 - 3600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 18.35% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 28.65% [1] - For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell 25% of the bu2509 contract in the 3500 - 3600 range to lock in profits [1] - For procurement management, when the regular inventory is low, it is recommended to buy 50% of the bu2509 contract in the 3300 - 3400 range to lock in procurement costs [1] - Weekly asphalt production increased by about 5.2%, while demand in South and East China decreased by 7.5% due to rainfall, leading to an increase in the inventory - to - consumption ratio this week [2] - The basis in the North China market strengthened, and the cracking spread on the futures market continued to strengthen, with the overall valuation remaining high [2] - In the short term, it is necessary to see if the slowdown in demand growth during the rainy season can match the increase in production growth under high profits. In the long - term, there is an expected increase in demand in the last year of the 14th Five - Year Plan [2] - After the callback, it is still advisable to maintain a long - position - based configuration [2] Group 2: Price and Spread Data Spot Price - The Shandong spot price on June 3, 2025, was 3645 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 20 yuan/ton [5] - The Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 20 yuan/ton [5] - The North China spot price was 3645 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 35 yuan/ton [5] - The South China spot price was 3365 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 15 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 75 yuan/ton [5] Basis - The Shandong spot 09 basis on June 3, 2025, was 189 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 22 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 29 yuan/ton [5] - The Yangtze River Delta spot 09 basis was 144 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 22 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 29 yuan/ton [5] - The North China spot 09 basis was 189 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 42 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 44 yuan/ton [5] - The South China spot 09 basis was - 91 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 57 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 66 yuan/ton [5] Cracking Spread - The Shandong spot cracking spread against Brent on June 3, 2025, was 162.036 yuan/barrel, with a daily decrease of 15.2169 yuan/barrel and a weekly decrease of 7.6459 yuan/barrel [8] - The futures main contract cracking spread against Brent was 129.4578 yuan/barrel, with a daily decrease of 18.6826 yuan/barrel and a weekly decrease of 21.3357 yuan/barrel [8] Group 3: Factors Analysis Bullish Factors - The inventory structure of asphalt is good [7] - There is a seasonal peak in demand [7] - The basis is strengthening [7] Bearish Factors - The cracking spread remains at a high level [4] - After the end of maintenance, the production of some refineries has recovered [7] - The plum - rain season in the South has dragged down demand [7]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Precious Metals Data Daily [4] - Report Date: June 3, 2025 [5] - Research Institution: ITC Guomao Futures [3] - Researcher: Baishuna from the Macroeconomic and Financial Research Center [5] Group 2: Price and Performance Price Tracking - On May 30, 2025, the prices of London Gold Spot, London Silver Spot, COMEX Gold, COMEX Silver, AU2508, AG2508, AU (T+D), and AG (T+D) were $3298.75/oz, $33.13/oz, $3322.40/oz, $33.25/oz, 771.80 yuan/g, 8218 yuan/kg, 767.80 yuan/g, and 8187 yuan/kg respectively [5]. - Compared with May 29, 2025, the price changes were 0.8%, -0.1%, 0.8%, -0.2%, 1.0%, -0.1%, 0.9%, and 0.0% respectively [5]. Spread and Ratio - On May 30, 2025, the spreads and ratios such as gold TD - SHFE active price, silver TD - SHFE active price, gold and silver internal - external spreads, SHFE and COMEX gold - silver ratios, etc. are presented in the report [5]. - The changes compared with May 29, 2025 varied, with the largest increase of 30.6% in the gold internal - external (TD - London) spread and the largest decrease of 19.14% in COMEX gold non - commercial short positions [5]. Group 3: Position Data Non - commercial Positions - As of May 27, 2025 (weekly data), the non - commercial long and short positions of COMEX gold and silver, and the positions of gold ETF - SPDR and silver ETF - SLV are provided [5]. - Compared with May 29, 2025, the changes in non - commercial positions of COMEX gold and silver ranged from - 19.14% to 6.22% [5]. Inventory Data - On May 30, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 17,247 kg, with no change compared to May 29, 2025; the SHFE silver inventory was 1,066,885 kg, a 2.99% increase [5]. - The COMEX gold inventory was 38,789,194 troy ounces, unchanged, and the COMEX silver inventory was 496,007,980 troy ounces, a 0.43% decrease [5]. Group 4: Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market - On May 30, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.18, a 0.08% decrease compared to May 29, 2025 [5]. - The US dollar index was 99.44, a 0.08% increase; the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.89%, a 0.77% decrease; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.41%, a 0.45% decrease [5]. - The VIX was 18.57, a 3.18% decrease; the S&P 500 was 5911.69, a 0.01% decrease; NYWEX crude oil was $60.79, a 0.21% decrease [5]. Group 5: Market Analysis and Strategy Short - term Logic - Trump's decision to raise steel tariffs to 50% and the EU's response, along with the escalating geopolitical tensions in Europe, have led to a significant increase in market risk - aversion sentiment, boosting precious metal prices [5]. - The slowdown of US PCE in April and consumer inflation expectations in June have increased the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the weak operation of the US dollar index also supports precious metal prices [5]. - However, due to the uncertainty and recurrence of tariff negotiations, the driving force for precious metal prices may weaken if the negotiations ease [5]. Medium - and Long - term Logic - Against the backdrop of the trade war, the US economy still faces the risk of "stagflation," and the Fed still has a certain probability of cutting interest rates in the second half of the year [5]. - With the intensification of great - power competition and the de - dollarization trend, global central banks' gold purchases continue, strengthening the monetary attribute of gold, and the medium - and long - term upward trend remains unchanged [5]. - The strategy suggests continuous low - buying allocation [5].