| 交易日期 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 成交价格 | 成交量 | 成交金额 买方营业部 | 卖方营业部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (元) | (万股/万份) | (万元) | | | 2025-12-05 | 000807 | 云铝股份 | 25.00 | 8.00 | 200.00 国元证券股份有限 | 国元证券股份有限 | | | | | | | 公司深圳深南大道 | 公司深圳深南大道 | | | | | | | 中国凤凰大厦营业 | 中国凤凰大厦营业 | | | | | | | 部 | 司 | 12月5日，云铝股份大宗交易成交8万股，成交额200万元，占当日总成交额的0.11%，成交价25元，较 市场收盘价28.31元折价11.69%。 ...

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/12/05 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of the Free Cash Flow ETF (159201), which has seen a 1.26% increase and a trading volume exceeding 4.4 billion yuan, leading its category [1] - The ETF has experienced continuous capital inflow for 20 consecutive trading days, totaling a net inflow of 2.106 billion yuan, indicating growing investor interest [1] - The current size of the Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) has reached 7.615 billion yuan with 6.405 billion shares, both marking all-time highs since its inception [1] Group 2 - According to Everbright Securities, the recent rise in the A-share market is driven by multiple favorable factors, including expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December and easing concerns over the AI bubble in the US stock market [1] - The market is expected to remain in a bull phase, but the duration of the bull market may be more significant than the magnitude of the increase, as guided by national policies promoting a "slow bull" [1] - In terms of asset allocation, short-term focus should be on defensive and consumer sectors, as previously lagging sectors may perform better during market fluctuations, particularly high dividend and consumer stocks [1][2]

Group 1 - The A500ETF fund (512050) has experienced a decline of 0.26% as of 9:38 AM on December 5, despite some of its holdings like Nanshan Aluminum and Jiangxi Copper performing well [1] - The fund has seen a net inflow of over 1.2 billion yuan in the last three days and a total of 2.4 billion yuan over the past ten days, indicating strong investor interest [1] - According to Xinda Securities, the foundation supporting the liquidity bull market remains solid, with potential for overall profit improvement and capital inflow to extend the bull market [1] Group 2 - The A500ETF fund (512050) offers investors a low fee rate of 0.2%, good liquidity with an average daily trading volume exceeding 5 billion yuan over the past month, and a large scale of over 20 billion yuan [2] - The fund tracks the CSI A500 Index and employs a dual strategy of industry balanced allocation and leading stock selection, covering all 35 sub-industries [2] - Investors are encouraged to consider related products such as the A500ETF fund (512050) and the A500 Enhanced ETF fund (512370) [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that copper mine supply disruptions have been ongoing this year, leading to a decline in supply growth, while copper smelting capacity is expected to increase by over 2 million tons by 2025 and more than 1 million tons in 2026, exacerbating the conflict between mining and smelting [1] - The TC price has been maintained below -40 USD/ton since April this year, with long-term TC at only 21 USD/ton, and the expectation is that TC prices will remain low in 2026, increasing the probability of domestic copper smelting reductions [1] - The CSPT group's proposal to reduce production capacity by 10% could involve nearly 1 million tons of capacity, and the expectation of reduced copper smelting may further support rising copper prices [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have rapidly increased, with market expectations for a rate cut in December rising to 86.4%, which is likely to benefit both base and precious metals [1] - In the silver market, low inventory levels have supported prices reaching historical highs, with total silver inventory at the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange at 1,235 tons, close to a 10-year low, increasing the sensitivity of prices to supply-demand gaps [1] Group 3 - The Nonferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the China Securities Nonferrous Index (930708), which selects listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of nonferrous metals from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, covering industries such as copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium [1] - This index reflects the overall performance of the nonferrous metal industry in the Chinese A-share market, with constituent stocks having larger market capitalizations and better liquidity [1]

Group 1 - Yonghe Intelligent Control plans to publicly transfer 100% equity and a debt of 114 million yuan of its subsidiary Chengdu Shanshuishang Hotel, with a minimum listing price of 185 million yuan [1] - Grinda intends to invest 79.9999 million yuan to subscribe for 764,400 shares of Muxi Integrated Circuit (Shanghai) Co., accounting for 0.19% of the total share capital after issuance [1] - Tianshan Aluminum's actual controllers plan to reduce their holdings by no more than 1% of the company's shares starting from December 25, 2025 [1][2] Group 2 - Guang'an Aizhong plans to publicly issue bonds not exceeding 1 billion yuan to repay debts and supplement working capital [3] - Tengda Technology's shareholder plans to reduce holdings by no more than 0.8% of the company's shares starting from December 26, 2025 [4] - Tianwo Technology intends to invest in a 300,000-kilowatt "solar thermal + wind power integration" project with a total investment not exceeding 1.918 billion yuan [5][6] Group 3 - Yunnan Energy Investment announces that three wind power expansion projects have achieved full capacity grid connection, adding 596,250 kilowatts of wind power capacity [7] - Jinggong Technology wins a bid for a carbon fiber production base project worth 729 million yuan, accounting for 42.16% of its audited revenue for 2024 [8] - CITIC Bank's risk director's qualification has been approved by the regulatory authority [9][10] Group 4 - Electric Media plans to establish a joint venture with Mango Super Media and Zhangjiajie Tourism Group with a registered capital of 180 million yuan [11] - New Lai Ying Material's subsidiary plans to invest 157 million yuan to acquire a 51% stake in Anpu Intelligent Technology [13] - Kuaiji Elevator has been notified of the cancellation of its high-tech enterprise qualification for 2021-2023, which may impact its operating performance [15] Group 5 - Huakai Yibai's shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by no more than 2.94% of the company's shares [16] - Del Shares' shareholder plans to reduce holdings by no more than 2.98% of the company's shares [17] - Rifa Precision plans to sell idle assets for 155 million yuan to an affiliated party [19] Group 6 - Wanlong Optoelectronics is planning a major asset restructuring and has suspended trading of its shares [20] - Bangjie Co.'s shareholder plans to reduce holdings by no more than 400,000 shares [22] - Nanhua Instrument's actual controller and related parties plan to reduce holdings by no more than 1.62% of the company's shares [24] Group 7 - Unisplendour has re-submitted its H-share listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [25] - Zhongshi Technology plans to acquire 51% of Zhongshi Xun Cold for 35.7 million yuan [26] - Pulutong is planning a major asset restructuring and has suspended trading of its shares [26]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The short - term trading opportunities for A - share index futures are limited due to low trading volume and volatility [2]. - The current interest rate is approaching the high level before the end of September, and the allocation value of bonds within 10 years is relatively improved. The 30 - year bonds may be oversold under emotional drive. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy and focus on the Politburo meeting and the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees [2]. - Gold is in a consolidation phase near $4200, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing long positions unilaterally. Silver is oscillating strongly and may reach $60. Investors are advised to lock in profits after accumulating floating profits [2]. - The container shipping index is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [2]. - For steel, it is recommended to focus on the long - rebar and short - iron ore arbitrage. Iron ore is in high - level consolidation, and coking coal and coke are also in a consolidation state [2]. - Copper prices are rising again, and aluminum prices are rising with increased positions. Different trading strategies are recommended for various non - ferrous metals [2][3]. - For new energy and chemical products, different products have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as PX having strong support in the medium - term, while PTA's rebound space is limited [3]. - In the energy and chemical industry, different products have different market situations, such as LLDPE's trading volume weakening significantly and PP's supply having an upward expectation [3]. - In the agricultural products market, different products have different trends, such as palm oil falling due to potential inventory growth and sugar oscillating weakly [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share index futures have low trading volume and volatility, and the short - term trading space is limited. The dividend sector is firm, and the index futures are trading weakly [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The current interest rate is approaching the high level before the end of September. The 30 - year bonds are relatively weak, and the short - term market driver may come from the policy expectation difference. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy and focus on the Politburo meeting and the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees. The positive arbitrage strategy for the 2603 contract is recommended for the spot - futures strategy [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is in a consolidation phase near $4200, and it is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options to earn time value. Silver is oscillating strongly and may reach $60. Investors are advised to lock in profits after accumulating floating profits. Platinum and palladium should be traded with a short - term high - selling and low - buying strategy, and the long - platinum and short - palladium hedge should take profits at high levels [2]. Black Sector - **Steel**: Steel mills are reducing production. It is recommended to focus on the long - rebar and short - iron ore arbitrage and narrow the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipment is increasing, the arrival is decreasing, and the port inventory is increasing. It is in high - level consolidation, with the range from 750 to 820 [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The price reduction range of coal in the production area is expanding, and the price of Mongolian coal is stable. The futures price is falling again, with the range from 1050 to 1150, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread is recommended [2]. - **Coke**: The first round of price cuts in December has been implemented, and the port trading price is falling. It is in a consolidation state, with the range from 1550 to 1700, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread is recommended [2]. Non - Ferrous Sector - **Copper**: The LME cancelled warehouse receipts are increasing significantly, and copper prices are rising again. The short - term decline space is limited [2]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices are rising with increased positions. Different trading strategies are recommended for aluminum, waste aluminum, and aluminum alloy, with corresponding price ranges [2][3]. - **Other Non - Ferrous Metals**: For zinc, supply reduction and interest - rate cut expectations provide support, but the spot trading is dull [4]. For other non - ferrous metals such as tin, nickel, and stainless steel, different market trends and trading suggestions are provided [3]. New Energy and Chemical Sector - **New Energy**: Different new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as polysilicon futures rising while the spot price is stable [3]. - **Chemical Products**: Different chemical products have different market situations, such as PX having strong support in the medium - term, while PTA's rebound space is limited. Different trading strategies are recommended for each product [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - Different energy and chemical products such as LLDPE, PP, and methanol have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as LLDPE's trading volume weakening significantly and PP's supply having an upward expectation [3]. Agricultural Products Sector - Different agricultural products such as palm oil, sugar, and cotton have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as palm oil falling due to potential inventory growth and sugar oscillating weakly [3].

Copper - Copper prices surged significantly overnight, reaching historical highs, while domestic refined copper import losses expanded [2][9] - LME copper inventory increased by 350 tons to 162,150 tons, while SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 1,599 tons to 28,969 tons [2][9] - The market sentiment is shifting towards a bullish outlook for copper prices due to tight LME inventory and structural issues in global visible inventory [2][9] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel rose by 0.92% to $14,875 per ton, while SHFE nickel slightly decreased by 0.02% to 117,590 yuan per ton [3][10] - LME nickel inventory decreased by 84 tons to 252,990 tons, indicating a tightening supply [3][10] - The nickel-iron and stainless steel supply chain is experiencing weak demand, with an expected decrease in the production of ternary precursors in December [3][10] Aluminum & Aluminum Alloys - Aluminum oxide prices showed a slight decline, with AO2601 settling at 2,632 yuan per ton, down 0.53% [4][11] - SHFE aluminum prices increased to 22,010 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.53% rise, while aluminum alloy prices decreased [4][11] - Market expectations indicate that environmental production limits in northern aluminum oxide plants have not materialized, leading to a correction in prices [4][11] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices decreased by 1.6% to 8,920 yuan per ton, while polysilicon prices increased by 1.89% to 57,430 yuan per ton [5][12] - The supply of industrial silicon is expected to remain stable, but demand is anticipated to decline significantly [5][12] - The solar photovoltaic sector is experiencing a slowdown in demand, with major orders decreasing, leading to a negative feedback effect in the supply chain [5][12] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures fell by 2.82% to 93,660 yuan per ton, with average prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate dropping by 50 yuan to 94,350 yuan per ton [6][12] - Weekly production of lithium decreased by 265 tons to 21,865 tons, while demand for ternary materials increased [6][12] - The overall inventory turnover days decreased to 26.3 days, but the market may face a slowdown in inventory reduction due to expected increases in supply and decreases in demand [6][12]

Macro and Strategy Research - The US economy in 2026 may be more fragile than it appears, with growth driven mainly by AI-related investments and high-income consumer spending, while other contributions remain minimal [3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue lowering interest rates due to concerns about the labor market, but the space for cuts is limited, aiming slightly below the nominal neutral rate [3] - In Europe, external risks are skewed to the downside, with challenges arising from the recovery of internal economic momentum, while defense spending supported by fiscal measures may revitalize investment in the Eurozone [3] Domestic Policy Environment - The "14th Five-Year Plan" framework will be adjusted to focus on solidifying development foundations while promoting a unified national market and expanding autonomous openness [4] - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a more proactive stance, with an emphasis on early deployment and investment in human capital [4] - Monetary policy will continue to be accommodative but with a focus on credit quality and more precise liquidity management [4] Domestic Economic Environment - China's economic growth in 2026 is projected to remain around 5%, with investment stabilizing first while consumption requires systematic policy support [5] - Industrial value-added growth is expected to remain stable due to good external demand, while the ability of high-tech industries to break through will be crucial for improving operational efficiency [5] - Inflation is anticipated to rebound slightly, with a key focus on whether PPI growth can significantly recover [5] Fund Research - In November, the market saw a decline, with the average drop for equity funds being 2.43%, while the mini funds (500 million to 1 billion) had the smallest average drop of 2.26% [9] - The number of new individual investor accounts decreased significantly after several months of growth, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [8] - The private equity market continued to recover, with the total scale reaching a three-year high of 22.05 trillion yuan [8] Financial Engineering Research - The A-share market experienced a broad adjustment in November, with the ChiNext index dropping 4.23% and the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.67% [12] - The margin trading balance decreased slightly to 24,660.50 billion yuan, with a notable drop in the number of investors participating in margin trading [13] Industry Research: Metals - The steel industry may see weakened demand in December due to weather factors, leading to reduced production and fluctuating prices [15] - Copper prices are expected to remain high due to tight supply and low domestic inventory, supported by the Fed's interest rate cut expectations [15] - The aluminum sector is anticipated to experience stable profits due to low alumina prices, despite a potential decline in downstream demand [15] Industry Research: Pharmaceuticals - The National Healthcare Security Administration is conducting negotiations for the 2025 National Basic Medical Insurance Drug List, which may impact pharmaceutical companies [20] - The medical manufacturing industry is facing pressure, with cumulative revenue declining by 2.9% year-on-year [21] - The upcoming release of the new basic medical insurance drug list and the first commercial insurance innovative drug list is expected to create investment opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector [22]

天山铝业公告称，公司实际控制人曾超懿、曾超林分别持股8.58%、6.58%。两人因自身资金需求，拟 在公告披露之日起15个交易日后的3个月内（2025年12月25日至2026年3月24日），通过集中竞价方式分 别减持不超22,949,300股，各占总股本0.5%，合计不超总股本1%。两人过往承诺均已履行完毕，本次减 持不会导致公司控制权变更，也不影响持续经营。 ...