反内卷成效初现,美国加密货币法案通过 宏观周报（7 月 14 日-20 日） 2025 年 7 月 20 日 分析师 张迪 ☎：010-8092-7737 ☑: zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 詹璐 ☎: 0755-8345-3719 国：zhanlu @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522110001 日雷 ☎: 010-8092-7780 ☑: lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080002 赵红蕾 ☎：010-8092-7606 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 ● 本周关注:7月18日,工信部在国新办新闻发布会上宣布,钢铁、有色金 属、石化、建材等十大重点行业稳增长工作方案即将出台,明确将推动重点 行业调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能,具体方案近期陆续发布。自7月1日 中央财经委会议明确提出要"依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争",关注后续 相关政策出台。国内方面,出行市场暑期热度上升,外需本周继续回升;反 内卷成效果初现,焦煤、焦炭及 ...

7月18日下午，装备制造技术国际合作对话对接会在上合示范区举行。此次对接会吸引了众多国内外装备制造领域的企业、采购商及行业专家参与，为推动 装备制造技术的国际合作搭建了重要交流平台。 阿联酋哈伊马角经济区驻华首席代表刘苗苗对园区进行了推介。她介绍了哈伊马角经济区的投资环境、政策优势和产业发展规划，吸引了众多参会企业的关 注。她表示，哈伊马角经济区欢迎中国装备制造企业前往投资兴业，共同打造国际化的产业园区。山东钢刚好智能制造有限公司总经理王栋对"钢刚好"工业 互联网平台项目进行了分享及推介。该平台通过数字化、智能化技术，实现了钢铁制造企业的生产管理、供应链协同和客户服务的高效集成。王栋介绍了平 台的功能特点和应用案例，展示了工业互联网在装备制造产业中的巨大应用前景。前丰帽业分享了在非洲加纳投资建厂的案例，详细介绍了在海外投资建厂 的经验和挑战，以及如何与当地市场和文化相结合，实现企业的可持续发展。这一案例为参会企业提供了有益的参考，拓宽了企业的国际发展思路。 上合示范区推介了上合装备制造产业园进，该产业园依托上合示范区的政策优势和区位优势，致力于打造集研发、生产、销售、服务于一体的高端装备制造 产业集群。推介中 ...

7月18日，广东经济半年报出炉。数据显示，2025年上半年，全省经济延续回升向好态势，运行总体平 稳、稳中向好。 上半年，广东实现地区生产总值68725.40亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长4.2%。其中，第一产业增加 值2258.86亿元，增长4.2%；第二产业增加值25978.86亿元，增长3.4%；第三产业增加值40487.69亿元， 增长4.6%。 具体来看： 总的来看，上半年，广东经济运行整体回升向好。但也要看到，当前外部环境更趋复杂严峻，国内有效 需求不足，经济持续回升向好基础仍需加力巩固。 一组图速览广东上半年经济运行具体情况>>> 工业方面，上半年，全省规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.0%，增速比一季度加快0.1个百分点，其 中6月份增长5.3%。分门类看，采矿业增加值下降0.3%，降幅收窄3.0个百分点；制造业增长 4.5%，增速提高0.1个百分点；电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业下降0.1%。 服务业方面，上半年，全省服务业增加值同比增长4.6%，增速比一季度加快0.3个百分点。其中， 交通运输仓储邮政业、金融业增加值分别增长6.6%、7.0%，比全部服务业增速高2.0个、2.4个百 分点。 ...

Group 1 - The core index, the CN Industrial Composite Index, has shown a significant increase of 5.77% over the past month, 11.65% over the past three months, and 6.12% year-to-date, reaching 2538.90 points [1] - The index is designed to reflect the overall performance of different industry securities from mainland Chinese enterprises, categorized according to the China Securities Index industry classification standards [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include CATL (6.36%), China Railway Shanghai Group (1.49%), China State Construction Engineering (1.15%), and others, indicating a diverse representation of key sectors [1] Group 2 - The market capitalization distribution of the index shows that Shenzhen Stock Exchange accounts for 47.12%, Shanghai Stock Exchange for 44.98%, and other exchanges like Hong Kong and New York have smaller shares [2] - In terms of industry representation, the index is heavily weighted towards electric power equipment (29.21%) and machinery manufacturing (28.67%), with transportation and construction also holding significant portions [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December, ensuring the index remains relevant to current market conditions [3]

| 申万行业 | 行业 | 成交额 | 比上日 | | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 涨跌 | （亿元） | （%） | 领涨（跌）股 | （%） | | | （%） | | | | | | 有色金属 | 1.66 | 806.93 | 82.56 | 海星股份 | 10.03 | | 钢铁 | 0.98 | 114.66 | 35.33 | 包钢股份 | 5.97 | | 煤炭 | 0.84 | 68.80 | 83.14 | 云煤能源 | 10.05 | | 基础化工 | 0.74 | 686.98 | 35.40 | 富淼科技 | 20.02 | | 国防军工 | 0.74 | 561.31 | 6.91 | 天秦装备 | 11.01 | | 交通运输 | 0.63 | 161.00 | -0.13 | 远大控股 | 10.03 | | 银行 | 0.63 | 224.10 | 25.79 | 厦门银行 | 3.27 | | 食品饮料 | 0.46 | 264.10 | 31.25 | 泸州老窖 | 3.11 | | 石油石化 | 0.3 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 7 月 18 日 星期五 【A 股市场大势研判】 市场全天低开高走，创业板指领涨 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3516.83 | 0.37% | 13.05 | | | 深证成指 | 10873.62 | 1.43% | 152.81 | | | 沪深 300 | 4034.49 | 0.68% | 27.29 | | | 创业板 | 2269.33 | 1.75% | 39.13 | | | 科创 50 | 1005.65 | 0.80% | 8.02 | | | 北证 50 | 1428.11 | 0.86% | 12.13 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概 | 念板块表现前五 | | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国防军工 | 2.74% ...

Core Viewpoint - The fixed asset investment in Henan Province for the first half of 2025 shows a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, driven by a significant increase in private investment and industrial investment, despite declines in infrastructure and real estate development investments [1][3]. Investment Overview - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 5.1% year-on-year [2] - Private investment grew by 8.3% [2][8] - Industrial investment rose by 25.9% [2] - Infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water supply) decreased by 10.6% [2] - Real estate development investment fell by 8.5% [2] Sector Analysis - First industry investment decreased by 0.7% [2] - Second industry investment increased by 25.9% [2] - Third industry investment declined by 5.8% [2] Industrial Investment Breakdown - Mining industry investment surged by 40.5% [2] - Manufacturing investment rose by 24.8% [2] - Investment in electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply increased by 28.3% [2] Infrastructure Investment Details - Water conservancy, environment, and public facilities management investment decreased by 1.7% [2] - Transportation and postal services investment fell by 22.2% [2] - Information transmission investment declined by 18.2% [2] Project Investment Insights - Central project investment grew by 4.0% [2] - Local project investment increased by 5.1% [2] Policy and Economic Context - The investment growth is supported by macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing growth and enhancing the business environment [3] - Manufacturing investment accelerated with a year-on-year increase of 24.8%, reflecting a 3.3 percentage point rise from the first quarter [4] - Key industrial chains saw a 25.2% increase in investment, indicating a focus on high-quality development [5] - High-tech manufacturing investment grew by 12.1%, with significant contributions from the pharmaceutical sector [6] - Equipment procurement investment surged by 26.3%, driven by industrial needs [7] - The policies promoting private sector investment have led to an 8.3% increase in private investment, with a notable rise in non-real estate projects [8] - Major projects with planned investments of over 100 million yuan saw a 9.3% increase, contributing significantly to overall investment growth [9]

但部分地区和行业安全问题依然突出 对此，应急管理部将会同各地、各有关部门全力抓好安全生产、防灾减灾救灾各项工作，全面排查风险 隐患，严格落实安全措施，切实维护人民群众生命财产安全。 中化新网讯 7月15日，应急管理部举行例行新闻发布会。应急管理部新闻宣传司司长申展利在发布会上 介绍，上半年，全国共发生各类生产安全事故8562起、死亡8079人，同比分别下降22.9%、17.8%。其 中，发生重大事故4起、死亡70人，同比分别下降20%、25.5%；发生较大事故172起、死亡634人，同比 分别下降6.5%、9.7%，安全生产形势总体稳定。 申展利强调，三季度历来是重特大事故易发期，叠加暑期旅游出行高峰和"七下八上"防汛关键期，安全 生产和自然灾害防范压力进一步增大。强降雨、高温、台风等极端天气可能引发次生灾害，交通运输、 建筑施工、危化品等重点行业安全风险交织叠加。 申展利指出，尽管整体数据向好，但一些地区和行业领域发生典型事故，安全问题依然突出：一是人员 密集场所发生重大火灾事故，商贸场所火灾隐患问题突出。二是交通运输业发生内河水运重大事故，货 车农用车非法载人问题突出。三是化工和烟花爆竹行业发生爆炸事故， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Citigroup upgraded its rating on the Chinese stock market to "Overweight," with a year - end target of 25,000 for the Hang Seng Index and 4,200 for the CSI 300 Index [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets: Driven by strong growth in US retail sales data in June and a continuous decline in the number of initial jobless claims, the three major US stock indexes closed higher [2] - Domestic markets: The A - share market continues its structural market characteristics. The national defense and military industry sector leads the gains, highlighting the performance - driven main line. Sectors with performance support such as rare earth permanent magnets, biomedicine, and consumer electronics are expected to regain upward momentum based on fundamental advantages after a short - term technical correction [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - economic Charts - The report includes charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [5][7][9] Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock Index Performance**: On July 17, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% to 3,516.83 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.43% to 10,873.62 points, the ChiNext Index rose 1.76% to 2,269.33 points, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.68% to 4,034.49 points, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.23% to 2,744.26 points, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.08% to 6,082.46 points, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.14% to 6,535.67 points [12] - **Transaction Volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded to 1.5 trillion yuan [1] - **Charts**: Include charts of the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [5][13] Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of IH and IF contracts increased synchronously. The trading volume of IC and IM contracts decreased, while the open interest increased [1][16] - **Basis**: The basis of the current - month contracts basically converged. The report details the basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts [1][36][38] - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the inter - period spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts, including next - month minus current - month, next - quarter minus current - month, etc., along with their changes [46][47] - **Charts**: Include charts of contract open interest, open - interest ratios, foreign - funded net open positions, basis, and inter - period spreads for IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts [5]

Core Viewpoint - The construction of a national unified market is essential for building a new development pattern and promoting high-quality development, as emphasized by President Xi Jinping during the recent Central Financial Committee meeting [1] Group 1: Importance of "Hubs" and "Pivots" - Henan has the natural conditions and comprehensive advantages to become a hub in the construction of a national unified market, facilitating the flow of people, goods, and information [2] - Establishing hubs will enable Henan to serve as a center for the circulation of various resources, enhancing the efficiency of economic cycles [2] Group 2: Advantages of Henan - Henan benefits from favorable national policies aimed at accelerating the construction of a unified market, providing a significant opportunity for institutional innovation and regulatory collaboration [3] - The province has a large market scale with a population of 100 million and over 11 million business entities, which is a key comparative advantage [3] - Henan's geographical location in the Central Plains and its modern transportation system enhance its connectivity and logistical capabilities [3] Group 3: Collaborative Efforts - There is a strong consensus and active participation among various stakeholders in Henan to integrate and support the construction of a national unified market [4] - The leadership in Henan is committed to seizing opportunities and leveraging advantages to gain a competitive edge in high-quality regional development [4] Group 4: Strategic Actions - The recent meeting outlined six key actions to strengthen the hub economy and enhance the pivot effect, including market expansion and infrastructure connectivity [5] - Focus on overcoming challenges and releasing the potential of scale and agglomeration effects to facilitate investment, production, trade, and logistics [6] - The construction of hubs and pivots is aligned with national needs and the expectations of business entities, positioning Henan for a robust integration into the national market [6]