据公告，绿地控股及控股子公司在2025年11月14日至12月2日新增诉讼1595件，累计金额61.63亿元。 中国经济网北京12月9日讯绿地控股（600606）(600606.SH)昨晚披露了关于公司及控股子公司新增诉讼 的公告。 具体情况来看，2025年11月14日至12月2日，公司及控股子公司作为被告的诉讼事项共有1512件，累计 金额55.59亿元。按诉讼类别划分：建设工程施工/采购诉讼纠纷634件，金额23.54亿元；房地产买卖/租 赁诉讼纠纷559件，金额2.13亿元；其他诉讼纠纷319件，金额29.92亿元。 鉴于部分案件尚未审理、判决、执行，其对公司后期利润的影响存在一定的不确定性，最终实际影响以 法院/仲裁生效判决/裁决为准。公司将依据有关会计准则的要求和实际情况进行相应的会计处理，并及 时按要求履行信息披露义务。 公告称，截至目前，公司所处的房地产及基建行业依旧处于调整周期，公司及控股子公司所涉及的相关 诉讼事项仍面临较大压力。对此，公司高度重视，把诉讼化解工作摆在重要位置，采取组建工作专班、 实施领导包案、强化督办考核、完善重大诉讼化解机制等措施，全力予以推进。公司将持续加大工作力 度，予 ...

红利_电池！哑铃策略在当下市场优势何在 20251208 摘要 哑铃策略在震荡市中适用，通过配置稳健资产（如红利低波基金）和高 弹性资产（需控制仓位）来平衡风险和收益，例如在 3,800 点震荡区间， 可将科技股盈利转移至红利资产。 南方红利低波 50 ETF 连接跟踪标普红利低波 50 指数，该指数筛选 A 股 市场中高分红、低波动的 50 只股票，包括银行、煤炭、基建等，旨在 提供稳健增长的投资组合。 港股与 A 股走势差异源于受影响因素不同，港股受全球资本流动和海外 政策影响较大，A 股则更多受国内经济和政策驱动。港股科技板块价格 波动通常比 A 股科技板块更大。 红利类股票波动性较低，因其分红能力强、股息率高、现金流充足，经 营稳定，不易受宏观经济影响，且投资者可获得股价上涨和定期分红的 双重收益。 当前 A 股科技板块经历上涨后处于相对高位，而恒生科技指数已消化今 年涨幅，位置相对安全，但仍需耐心和分批定投策略。 Q&A 当前市场震荡情况下，如何进行投资配置比较合适？ 当前市场震荡情况下，可以考虑使用哑铃策略进行投资配置。哑铃策略是一种 在不确定性较高的市场环境中，通过同时配置稳健资产和高波动资产来 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】第 49 期 出口高频维持韧性 ❖ 每周经济观察： （一）景气向上 1、外贸：港口集装箱吞吐量同比维持高位。截至 11 月 30 日，我国港口集装 箱吞吐量环比-0.3%，上周环比为+5.4%，四周同比微幅回落至 9.6%，上周为 10%，10 月 26 日四周同比为 6.6%。 2、耐用品消费：乘用车零售周度增速转正，但月度增速转负。截至 11 月 30 日当周，乘用车零售同比增速+2%，前值-7%。乘联分会发布初步统计数据， 11 月全国乘用车市场零售同比-7%。10 月全月同比为+5.8%。 3、地产：住宅销售降幅缩窄，二手房价格暂时止跌。我们统计的 67 个城市， 12 月前 5 日，商品房成交面积同比为-26%。11 月同比为-34%。10 月同比为- 26%。11 月 24 日当周，二手房挂牌价，一线和全国均持平。今年以来，一线 城市二手房挂牌价累计下跌 5.1%，全国累计下跌 5.5%。 4、价格：国内外大宗品价格普涨，农产品价格普涨。本周南华综合指数、RJ/CRB 商品价格指数分别上涨 1%、1.5%。蔬菜批价上涨 2.4%，鸡蛋批价上涨 1. ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 23,831 points, down 145 points or 0.61% [1][5] - The US stock market saw slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.22% and the S&P 500 up 0.19%, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and easing inflation [2][5] - The net inflow of southbound funds into Hong Kong stocks reached 121.9 billion HKD in November, indicating continued interest from mainland investors [3] Key Sectors - The local real estate, software, and 5G sectors faced declines, while gold stocks performed well [1][5] - Technology stocks, particularly in AI and semiconductor sectors, showed resilience and potential for long-term growth opportunities [3][9] - The report highlights the attractiveness of high-dividend and undervalued sectors for investment, particularly state-owned enterprises [3] Company Highlights - Baidu Group saw a significant increase of 5.01% in its stock price, with news of its subsidiary Kunlun Chip planning to list in Hong Kong [1][5] - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from AI advancements, such as Alibaba and Baidu, which are expected to gain from self-built large models [9] - China Railway Group reported a revenue of 773.814 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, with a notable performance in its mineral resources segment [10] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends continued attention to sectors like AI applications, semiconductors, and industrial software, which are seen as key growth areas [3] - It also suggests monitoring companies in the upstream non-ferrous metals sector that are expected to benefit from favorable market conditions [3] - The report emphasizes the potential of companies involved in AI-enabled technologies and their applications across various industries [3]

12月以来，大盘走势呈现"先抑后扬"的震荡修复态势。月初首个交易日上证指数上涨0.65%后，2-4日进入短暂调整期，连续小幅下跌引发部分投资者对年 末行情的担忧；但12月5日市场迎来强势反弹，上证指数上涨0.70%成功收复3900点整数关口，深成指、创业板指分别大涨1.08%、1.36%，超4300只个股 飘红，赚钱效应显著回升。更为关键的是，当日两市成交额放量至1.73万亿元，较前一日增加1768亿元，主力资金净流入规模达973亿元，创下近一个月 新高，量能的有效释放印证了市场做多情绪的回归，为后续行情延续奠定了资金基础。 央行《2025年第四季度货币政策执行报告》强调"维持流动性合理充裕"，明确年末将通过逆回购、中期借贷便利（MLF）等工具精准对冲资金面季节性波 动，12月已开展3000亿元7天期逆回购操作，中标利率维持1.80%不变，保障市场资金成本稳定。 金融监管总局《关于优化保险资金运用管理有关事项的通知》明确，将部分沪深300成分股的投资风险因子从0.3调整至0.25，按险资当前28万亿元总资产 规模测算，预计可释放超5000亿元增量资金入市，长期资金配置需求将进一步支撑核心资产估值。 截至12月 ...

（原标题：巴西基建投资金额将创纪录，但增速有所放缓） 巴西媒体11月27日综合报道，巴西基础设施和基础工业协会（Abdib）预测，2025年巴西基建投资 金额将创纪录达到2800亿雷亚尔。今年计划投资金额中，84%来自私营部门，其余来自公共部门。按领 域看，卫生领域投资表现亮眼，同比增长35.7%，运输和物流领域同比增长12.7%。根据Abdib分析，在 经历2023年、2024年的迅猛增长（增长率分别为19.5%、15.3%）后，2025年基建投资有所放缓，预计 增长率为3%。 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观预测报告 2025 年 12 月 6 日 固定资产投资增速或仍偏弱 —2025 年 11 月宏观经济预测报告 频率：每月 点评报告 相关报告 1、《服务消费淡季回调明显— —11 月 PMI 数据点评》2025- 12-6 | 张静静 | S1090522050003 | | --- | --- | | zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn | | | 张岸天 | S1090522070002 | | zhangantian@cmschina.com.cn | | | 罗 丹 | S1090524070004 | | luodan7@cmschina.com.cn | | | 张玉书 | 研究助理 | | zhangyushu@cmschina.com.cn | | | 赵兴举 | 研究助理 | zhaoxingju@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 表 1：宏观经济指标实际值、预测值与未来方向 | 分类 | 预测指标 | 10 月实际 | 11 月预测 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 制造业 PMI（%） | ...

Core Viewpoints - The presentation emphasizes the importance of understanding where deposits will be allocated in the future, as this will influence valuations, styles, and financial conditions for the coming year [4][5][6] - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a critical year for awakening the investment value in the Chinese stock market, breaking the stereotype of short-lived bull markets [7][8] Economic and Policy Outlook for 2026 - The nominal GDP growth rate for 2026 is projected to be around 4.5%, slightly higher than the estimated 4% for 2025 [10][11] - Fixed asset investment is expected to remain low, with a neutral forecast around 1%, while consumption is likely to align with nominal GDP growth [11][12] - Export growth is anticipated to be resilient, potentially exceeding nominal GDP growth, with a forecast of around 5% [11][12] Price Trends for 2026 - CPI growth is expected to turn positive, while PPI growth trends are uncertain, with a potential for recovery but no guarantee of turning positive [13][14][15] - The housing market's recovery signals are difficult to identify, but a key indicator is whether mortgage rates fall below rental yields [16][17][18] Structural Changes in the Economy - The middle stream of the economy is expected to show the most significant improvement, with overseas profit margins for middle stream companies surpassing domestic margins for the first time [23][24] - The supply-demand dynamics in the middle stream are changing, with policies targeting this sector leading to adjustments in market conditions [24][25] Financial Conditions and Deposit Allocation - The total amount of deposits will determine valuations and market styles, with M2 growth expected to slow down to around 7.4% to 7.5% [33][34] - The allocation of deposits between residents, enterprises, and non-bank financial institutions will significantly impact economic dynamics and stock market activity [36][38] Investment Insights and Asset Allocation - The focus for 2026 will be on stock investments, with expectations of continued market activity but with a potential slowdown in growth rates compared to 2025 [52][53] - The bond market is expected to face challenges due to increased volatility, with a cautious outlook on interest rates [59] Uncertain Factors - Key uncertainties include the performance of the US stock market, the stability of dollar liquidity, and the potential for infrastructure investments in China to rebound as expected [60]

- The "CSI Central State-owned Enterprises Dividend 50 Index" (931231.CSI) is constructed based on a dual-dimension screening method combining "central enterprise attributes" and "high dividend yield factors" [38][39][43] - The index selects 50 listed companies with high cash dividend yields from central enterprises under the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) and includes companies with stable cash flows, continuous dividends, and clear dividend payout ratios [38][39][43] - The index's sample space includes A-shares and depositary receipts issued by red-chip enterprises, meeting criteria such as being controlled by SASAC, ranking in the top 80% in terms of average daily market value and trading volume over the past year, and maintaining a dividend payout ratio between 0 and 1 over the past three years [38][39][43] - The index is rebalanced annually, with adjustments implemented on the trading day following the second Friday of December each year [38][39][43] Index Backtesting Results - The CSI Central State-owned Enterprises Dividend 50 Index achieved a cumulative return of 7.65% and an annualized return of 5.70% from January 1, 2025, to December 1, 2025 [45][49][51] - The index's annualized volatility was 11.86%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.31 and a maximum drawdown of 10.82% during the same period [45][49][51] - The weighted dividend yield of the index was 4.46%, ranking among the top in similar indices [49][51][60] Factor Exposure Analysis - Based on the Barra model, the index exhibits significant positive exposure to value factors such as high earnings yield and high book-to-price ratio, while showing negative exposure to risk factors like low beta and low residual volatility [68][70][72] - The index avoids momentum and growth factors, indicating a focus on stable, low-volatility assets rather than chasing market trends [68][70][72]

2025年是"十四五"规划收官之年。在高度不确定性的外部环境下，由消费和投资组成的内需"双引擎"继 续推动国民经济运行保持平稳，且消费结构持续升级，投资结构不断优化，为今后释放内需潜力积蓄动 能。在受访专家学者看来，若进一步加大扩内需政策力度，内需潜力有望持续释放，更大程度发挥消费 和投资对经济增长的拉动作用。 服务消费扩容提质 今年前10个月，扣除房地产开发投资后的全国固定资产投资同比增长1.7%，其中，基建投资下降 0.1%，制造业投资增长2.7%，显示出在投资增速整体放缓的背景下，我国投资结构正在持续优化，尤 其是信息服务业，航空、航天器及设备制造业等部分高技术产业投资保持较快增长。 在提振消费专项行动各项措施作用下，今年以来商品消费稳步扩大，同时旅游出行、文化体育、网上消 费持续活跃，为消费扩大注入新的动力。今年前10个月，社会消费品零售总额同比增长4.3%，服务零 售额增长5.3%。 加力扩围后的消费品以旧换新政策在今年发挥出更大效能。前11个月，消费品以旧换新政策带动销售额 超2.5万亿元，惠及超3.6亿人次。"今年以旧换新政策资金规模大、涉及人群多，对汽车换能、家电换 智、家装焕新的成效显著。" ...