反内卷预期发酵继续推涨资源品价格 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) 中观景气 7 月第 4 期 本报告导读： 地产销售和服务消费需求依然承压，耐用品外销承压。国内"反内卷"政策预期持 续发酵，钢铁、浮法、煤炭和有色金属等周期资源品价格环比上涨。 投资要点： 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.23 略 研 究 策 略 | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 张逸飞(分析师) | | | 021-38038662 | | | zhangyifei@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080008 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 亚太权益领先，中债曲线牛陡 2025.07.21 内资热钱加速流入，局部交易已拥挤 2025.07.21 25Q2 基金增配通信、军工与大金融 2025.07.21 乘用车零售超预期，钢价继续反弹 2025.07.17 决策层调研与政策风向标 2025.07.15 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必 ...

大盘站上3600点，雅江水电成为牛市确认的信号了吗？ 金十期货特约光大期货点评：周三盘中上证综指站上3600关口，四大股指期货全部上涨。本周两市成交 连续放量，推动指数连创新高，赚钱效应下市场情绪明显好转，持续关注资金进场情况。 当前市场交 易主线集中"反内卷"、大基建等政策面推动，周期股估值修复明显。月底重磅会议即将召开，宏观政策 或有进一步落地。关注大盘股指走势。 消息面，周末雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程开工建设，投资规模约1.2万亿元，本周市场与水电工程相关的 水泥、基建板块快速冲高，周三雅江水电概念指数盘中大涨6%。项目实施难度及投资体量均大于三峡 电站（约是三峡电站总投资的五倍），项目建设期可能在10-15年左右，对于大宗商品需求广用量大。 前期准备阶段进行配套基础设施建设，需要大量水泥、钢材、木材等大宗商品；正式建设期，需要钢材 作为大坝、厂房构造等关键材料；后期机组安装和并网运营，需要输电相关的铜材、铝材等。综合来 看， 基建相关领域或面临估值抬升，市场情绪乐观，关注大盘指数是否有前高的突破行情。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the positive impact of the Yajiang project on the construction materials and infrastructure sectors, leading to significant market activity and investment opportunities [1][2] - The Yajiang project, a national strategic initiative, is expected to enhance Tibet's GDP growth rate to over 8% annually and generate over 2 trillion yuan in related investments over the next decade, significantly boosting demand for cement and construction materials [1] - Recent government policies aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries, including construction materials, are expected to optimize the industry structure and improve the fundamentals for leading companies in the construction and materials sectors [1][2] Group 2 - The construction materials sector has seen a downturn in recent years, but recent data indicates that various sub-industries are approaching profitability bottoms, with expectations for recovery in 2025 [2] - Demand-side factors, such as urban renewal initiatives and support for home renovations, are anticipated to drive consumption of construction materials like pipes, waterproofing, and coatings [2] - The trend of "anti-involution" is expected to lead to positive changes in supply-side dynamics, with potential improvements in industry structure and profit margins for companies in the construction materials sector [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that there is a significant inflow of funds into infrastructure assets, particularly through the infrastructure ETF (159619), which saw a net inflow of over 40 million units today [1] - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, which involves the construction of five cascade power stations with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, has been officially launched [1] - The project is a national strategic initiative that encompasses multiple industry chains, including hydropower construction, infrastructure development, ultra-high voltage transmission, equipment manufacturing, civil explosives, and cement supply, indicating a gradual release of demand across the upstream and downstream industry chains [1] Group 2 - The Chinese government is implementing more proactive macro policies this year, with solid progress in the construction of "dual-weight" projects, leading to a steady increase in infrastructure investment [1] - As special bonds are gradually allocated to projects and relevant policies from the Central Urban Work Conference are being implemented, it is expected that fiscal policy support and improvements in financing will gradually manifest in investment and physical output [1] - The infrastructure ETF (159619) tracks the CSI Infrastructure Index, which includes representative companies from the construction, building materials, and engineering machinery sectors, reflecting the overall performance of the infrastructure industry [2]

Market Overview - The market experienced a strong upward trend today, with all three major indices reaching new highs for the year. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges recorded a total trading volume of 1.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 193.1 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.62%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.84%, the ChiNext Index by 0.61%, and the CSI A500 Index by 0.84% [1][3]. Foreign Investment and Market Sentiment - A significant improvement in foreign investment has been observed, with a net increase of 10.1 billion USD in domestic stocks and funds in the first half of the year, reversing the trend of net reductions over the past two years. This indicates a growing willingness of global capital to allocate to A-shares. Additionally, the number of new accounts opened in the Shanghai Stock Exchange reached 12.6 million in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 32.8% [3]. Industry Analysis: Photovoltaic Sector - The photovoltaic industry is expected to see marginal improvements due to the "anti-involution" policies aimed at addressing overcapacity and disorderly competition. The policies have been clearly defined in recent government meetings, focusing on traditional high-energy-consuming industries and new productive sectors like photovoltaics and automobiles [3][4]. - The photovoltaic sector has the highest proportion of loss-making companies and industry concentration among the "anti-involution" industries, making it a prime candidate for accelerated capacity clearance and financial improvement [4]. Industry Analysis: Coal Sector - The coal sector has seen a significant increase, with the coal ETF rising by 8.25% amid rumors of production limits from the National Energy Administration. However, these rumors have not been officially confirmed. The demand for coal has surged due to high temperatures, with daily coal consumption reaching 6.33 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.42% [7][9]. - On the supply side, coal imports have decreased significantly, with June imports at 33.04 million tons, the lowest in nearly two years. The "anti-involution" policies are expected to further control and optimize coal production capacity in the medium to long term [7][9]. Industry Analysis: Construction and Materials - The construction and materials sectors are benefiting from new demand driven by major projects like the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, which has a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan. The project is expected to stimulate demand across multiple industry chains, including infrastructure and materials [10]. - The "anti-involution" policies are also being implemented in the construction sector, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announcing a new round of measures to stabilize growth in key industries, including construction materials and steel [10][11]. Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to consider ETFs related to the photovoltaic sector (ETF 159864), coal sector (ETF 515220), and construction materials (ETF 159745) as potential investment opportunities, given the favorable market conditions and policy support [5][9][11].

如果他们俩什么时候经历大分歧，整个题材也是要跟着经历分歧的，20厘米方向锚定的是助勃还有铁 建。如果20厘米方向标的分歧也会同样影响这个该题材，30厘米看好的是恒力，啊但是目前也是完全不 给机会。啊同样接下来要去考虑的是找到类似于像DS方向的美日，还有首都等核心标的。那么从标的 上的选择上，其实给大家简单的梳理了一下我的观点，但是整体目前还是处在似清非清的状态，那要等 什么？那要等一个大分歧，今天的后排已经开始出现了第一次分歧，但是因为市场氛围太好，午后资金 又回流，而方向上也是继续选择了新方向这个雅下。 那明后天正常来讲还是分级预期，如果指数在周三周四能来一次缩量大调整，因为这个板块都是一些工 程机械、基建等大市值的个股，整体来说非常吃成交量的，伴随着题材来一次大愤青才能分得清楚这里 面到底谁是高手，谁是在裸泳，这才是接下来更有确定性的阶段。之过急能进的话可以先进，然后之后 等到分歧的时候。 连续两天超强度表现的雅下水电站今天迎来了首次后排分歧，但是午后有资金又回流了该方向。和讯投 顾李嘉乐分析，从强度上来看，比春节左右的DS方向的强度更大。目前只是题材发酵的初级阶段，踏 空的不用担心，进不去的也没有关系， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic performance in the first half of the year, highlighting a GDP growth of 5.3% and the need for continued policy support to achieve the annual growth target of 5% in the second half of the year. It anticipates the introduction of new policies to stimulate the economy in response to various challenges [1][2]. Economic Performance - The actual GDP growth in the first half of the year was 5.3%, with the first quarter at 5.4% and the second quarter at 5.2%, exceeding the 5% annual target. However, the GDP deflator index fell by 1.2% in the second quarter, marking nine consecutive quarters of negative growth in the index, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [2][3]. - The growth in the first half was primarily driven by proactive policies and early consumer demand stimulation, particularly through the "trade-in" policy, which significantly boosted consumption [3][4]. Consumption and Investment - Social retail sales increased by 5% year-on-year, with notable growth in categories related to the "trade-in" policy, such as home appliances and communication equipment, which saw retail sales growth of 30.7%, 25.4%, 24.1%, and 22.9% respectively [3][4]. - Fixed asset investment grew by only 2.8% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment up by 4.6% and manufacturing investment by 7.5%. However, real estate investment declined by 11.2%. Equipment investment surged by 17.3%, contributing 86% to total investment growth [6][7]. Trade and Export - Exports showed resilience, with a 5.9% year-on-year increase in dollar terms, despite a 10.9% decline in exports to the U.S. The diversification of exports helped mitigate the impact of reduced U.S. demand [9][10]. Economic Concerns - Despite positive data, there are concerns about potential weaknesses in the economy, particularly in consumer spending, manufacturing investment, and real estate. The article notes that the base effect from last year's policies may lead to weaker economic data in the second half [12][14]. - Real estate sales and prices have shown signs of decline, with new housing sales down by 3.5% and sales revenue down by 5.5% year-on-year in the first half [17][18]. Policy Outlook - The article anticipates that the government will focus on targeted policies rather than large-scale stimulus, with an emphasis on optimizing existing budgets and addressing specific economic challenges [20][21]. - Consumption policies may be refined to benefit lower-income groups and stimulate demand, while investment strategies will likely shift towards infrastructure projects to counteract declining manufacturing and real estate investments [22][25]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy is expected to remain supportive, with potential for minor adjustments such as a small reduction in reserve requirements or interest rates, particularly in response to global economic conditions [26][27]. Structural Issues - The article emphasizes that the main issues facing the Chinese economy are structural rather than total output, suggesting that a focus on domestic and international circulation and supply-demand relationships is crucial for understanding economic pressures [18][29].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant investment and economic opportunities presented by the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, which is expected to create numerous jobs and generate substantial fiscal revenue for Tibet [1][2]. Group 1: Project Overview - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project involves the construction of five cascade power stations with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [1]. - The project is anticipated to directly create hundreds of thousands of jobs, which is three times the employment generated by the Three Gorges Project [1]. - Upon completion, the project is expected to contribute 20 billion yuan annually to Tibet's fiscal revenue, accounting for two-thirds of its projected total revenue for 2024 [1]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The project is expected to drive growth across multiple sectors, including civil engineering, machinery and high-end equipment, building materials, and power grid construction, presenting strategic investment opportunities [2]. - The development will promote the digital and intelligent transformation of traditional hydropower construction, enhancing the resilience and safety of China's hydropower industry supply chain [2].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index closed up 0.54%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.38% [1] - Sectors such as machinery, infrastructure, non-ferrous metals, coal, and lithium batteries saw significant gains, with China Longgong (03339.HK) increasing by over 15% [1] - Conversely, sectors like Apple, domestic banks, and biomedicine performed poorly, with Weishi Jiajie (00856.HK) declining by over 6% [1] Group 2 - CEC International (00759.HK) experienced a remarkable increase of 259% following news of JD.com acquiring Jiabao [1]

Market Overview - A-shares continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index reaching new highs for the year, closing up 0.62% and 0.61% respectively, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.84% [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets approached 1.9 trillion, an increase of nearly 200 billion compared to the previous day [1] Sector Performance - The infrastructure and building materials sectors led the gains, with significant increases in various ETFs, including Coal ETF (8.25%), Building Materials ETF (7.91%), and Infrastructure ETF (6.99%) [2][3] - The Coal industry is highlighted as a high-dividend sector, with leading companies expected to attract continued investment due to stable cash flows and dividend capabilities [3] Policy Impact - The Ministry of Finance's recent notification is expected to enhance market preference for high-dividend assets, benefiting sectors like coal and infrastructure [3] - Financial institutions anticipate improvements in infrastructure projects in the second half of the year, supported by the launch of major projects and the issuance of special bonds [4] Gaming Sector - The gaming sector experienced a decline, with the National Press and Publication Administration issuing fewer import game licenses compared to the previous year, although domestic game approvals increased by 20.54% [5] ETF Activity - The short-term bond ETF recorded the highest trading volume at 21.2 billion, while the building materials ETF had the highest turnover rate at 253% [6] - A new Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF is set to begin fundraising, focusing on major internet companies in Hong Kong [7]