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广发期货《特殊商品》日报-20250417
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-17 07:17
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: Production is gradually recovering to a high level, and the weekly output has returned to around 73 - 740,000 tons. There has been a slight reduction in inventory, but with the increase in production, there is still expected to be inventory pressure. The market for soda ash remains under pressure due to the lag in photovoltaic resumption, and the futures market is expected to continue its weak oscillation in the future [1]. - Glass: The spot market is weak, and the macro - level is bearish, which jointly puts pressure on glass prices. The 05 contract is affected by the expansion of the delivery warehouse in Hubei and is showing a weak performance. The 09 contract has a relatively low price, and the market has expectations for stimulus policies, but there is currently no short - term driver [1]. Industrial Silicon The spot price of industrial silicon continues to decline, and the futures price has reached a new low. Supply has a slight increase, demand remains weak, and downstream prices are showing a downward trend, which drags down the price of industrial silicon. There are concerns about inventory accumulation, and the price fluctuation range is further adjusted to 8,500 - 10,500 yuan/ton [3]. Polysilicon The polysilicon futures price has fallen sharply, and the current spot price is at a significant premium to the futures price. There is support from downstream demand in April, but polysilicon inventory has not continued to decline, and downstream prices are starting to weaken. The futures price is expected to have limited room for further decline [4]. Natural Rubber Domestic rubber - producing areas are entering the new tapping season, and overseas areas are also gradually starting to tap after the Songkran Festival. The cost support for rubber prices has weakened. On the demand side, the inventory of semi - steel tires continues to increase, and enterprises are reducing production to control inventory. Short - term rubber prices are expected to face significant pressure [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Prices and Spreads - Glass: Spot prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The 2505 contract decreased by 0.69% to 1144 yuan/ton, and the 2509 contract decreased by 2.07% to 1181 yuan/ton. The 05 basis increased by 8.16% [1]. - Soda ash: Spot prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The 2505 contract decreased by 0.60% to 1331 yuan/ton, and the 2509 contract decreased by 0.67% to 1368 yuan/ton. The 05 basis increased by 3.79% [1]. Supply and Demand - Soda ash: The operating rate increased from 82.38% to 88.05%, and the weekly output increased by 3.46% to 737,700 tons. The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [1]. - Glass: There is no significant change in the main supply - related data [1]. Inventory - Glass: The inventory in the market decreased by 0.84% to 65,203,000 weight boxes [1]. - Soda ash: The factory inventory decreased by 0.49% to 1.693 million tons, and the delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 3.08% to 402,700 tons [1]. Real Estate Data New construction area decreased by 2.88% year - on - year, construction area decreased by 20.51% year - on - year, completion area increased by 5.27% year - on - year, and sales area increased by 1.81% year - on - year [1]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis The prices of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon, East China SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon all decreased, while the basis increased [3]. Monthly Fundamental Data In March, the national industrial silicon output increased by 18.20% to 3.422 million tons, the output in Xinjiang increased by 26.57% to 2.108 million tons, the output in Yunnan decreased by 14.58% to 123,000 tons, and the output in Sichuan increased by 170.59% to 46,000 tons. The national operating rate increased by 13.29% to 57.80% [3]. Inventory Changes Xinjiang factory inventory increased by 4.42% to 226,700 tons, Yunnan factory inventory decreased by 11.40% to 24,100 tons, social inventory increased by 0.66% to 612,000 tons, and warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.55% to 349,000 tons [3]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis The average prices of N - type re -投料, P - type cauliflower - like material, and granular silicon remained unchanged. The basis of N - type material and cauliflower - like material increased [4]. Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads The PS2506 contract decreased by 0.54% to 40,265 yuan/ton. Some inter - month spreads changed significantly, such as the PS2506 - PS2507 spread increasing by 91.50% [4]. Weekly and Monthly Fundamental Data In March, the polysilicon output increased by 6.66% to 96,100 tons. In February, the import volume decreased by 29.29% to 23,000 tons, the export volume decreased by 72.88% to 16,000 tons, and the net export volume decreased by 130.20% to - 8,000 tons [4]. Inventory Changes Polysilicon inventory increased by 3.39% to 244,000 tons, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 8.37% to 19.15 GW [4]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber decreased by 0.68% to 14,650 yuan/ton, and the whole - latex basis decreased by 62.50%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.69% to 14,350 yuan/ton [5]. Inter - month Spreads The 9 - 1 spread increased by 7.06%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 21.47%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 138.10% [5]. Fundamental Data In February, the production in Thailand decreased by 37.99% to 3.464 million tons, in Indonesia decreased by 0.50% to 1.976 million tons, and in India decreased by 31.48% to 740,000 tons. The operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased by 3.23% to 78.52%, and the operating rate of all - steel tires decreased by 0.37% to 66.15% [5]. Inventory Changes The bonded area inventory increased by 0.13% to 620,670 tons, and the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE increased by 49.13% to 77,717 tons [5].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-2025-04-07
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-04-07 02:53
2025年04月07日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | LPG:成本关税两面夹击,关注下游负反馈 | 53 | | --- | --- | | PVC:短期承压 | 56 | | 燃料油:外盘原油大跌,盘面或大幅回撤 | 58 | | 低硫燃料油:预计开盘下跌,外盘高低硫价差延续走阔 | 58 | | 集运指数(欧线):6-10正套、8-10正套、10-12反套持有 | 59 | | 短纤:成本坍塌,弱势运行 | 62 | | 瓶片:成本坍塌,弱势运行 | 62 | | 豆粕:关税扰动、美豆跌幅较大,连粕或偏强、但谨防冲高回落风险 | 63 | | 豆一:跟随豆类市场波动,防止冲高回落 | 63 | | 玉米:震荡运行 | 65 | | 白糖:宏观主导,跟随大势 | 66 | | 棉花:短期内有下行风险 | 67 | | 鸡蛋:关注8-9正套 | 69 | | 生猪:现货跌幅不及预期,情绪偏强 | 70 | | 花生:关注上货 | 71 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 | 黄金:对等关税政策落地 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银:警惕大幅下跌表现 | 3 | | 铜:美国超 ...
银河期货有色金属衍生品日报-2025-03-26
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-03-26 13:00
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US is about to impose copper and reciprocal tariffs, which will lead to a general decline in non - ferrous metals. However, the impact on different metals varies. For example, the market for copper will quickly adjust the price difference, and the upward trend of copper prices may be near the end [2]. - The alumina market is expected to be volatile. Although the number of alumina plant overhauls is increasing, the impact on monthly production is limited. There is a possibility of a marginal decline in alumina production capacity from April to May [5][8]. - The aluminum market is supported by strong domestic demand. Despite the expected tariff increase in the US, LME aluminum shows a narrow - range sideways movement. Domestic aluminum processing enterprises'开工 rate is rising, and the demand for aluminum profiles is expected to be boosted [14][17][18]. - The zinc market is in a state of range - bound oscillation. Although there is an expectation of a large increase in zinc ingot supply, the current inventory is relatively low, and domestic consumption is expected to be boosted by policies [21][23]. - The lead market is affected by factors such as high prices of waste batteries and changes in supply and demand. The price of lead is running at a high level, but the profit of secondary lead smelters is shrinking, and there is a certain willingness to reduce production [26][28]. - The nickel market is expected to be strong in the short - term. The price of nickel ore is expected to be firm due to concerns about policies and production shortages. However, in the medium - term, high prices may stimulate over - supply [31][32]. - The stainless - steel market is affected by raw material prices and demand. The price of NPI is relatively high, and the supply of 300 - series stainless steel is still tight, but the upward space is gradually narrowing [38][39]. - The tin market is in a state of high - level wide - range oscillation. The shortage of tin concentrate is intensified, but the possible resumption of production in Wa State may relieve the supply pressure to some extent in the future [44][48]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to decline. The rumor of joint production cuts by industrial silicon manufacturers is false, and the market is in a state of oversupply with weak demand [50][54]. - The polysilicon market is expected to be volatile. Although there is information about production cuts, the overall supply pressure is not large, and the market may be affected by factors such as inventory and demand expectations [56][58]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to decline. The price of lithium carbonate may continue to fall due to factors such as a decrease in imported ore prices and weak demand [63][64]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2504 contract closed at 81,980 yuan, up 0.4%, and the open interest of the Shanghai copper index increased by 13,455 lots. The spot price showed different trends in different regions [2]. - **Important Information**: The US may impose copper tariffs soon, and Glencore has suspended copper shipments from its Chilean smelter [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US copper tariff will lead to a price adjustment in the market, and the upward trend of copper prices may end. Trend - following long positions should all be liquidated [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close long positions for single - side trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [2]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2504 contract rose 34 yuan/ton to 3,090 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the weighted index decreased. The spot price showed different trends in different regions [4]. - **Related Information**: Some alumina plants are undergoing overhauls, and the inventory of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased [5][7]. - **Logic Analysis**: The increase in overhauls has limited impact on monthly production. The price of alumina is expected to be volatile before substantial production cuts [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, short when the price rebounds after substantial production cuts; wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [9][11]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2504 contract closed at 20,700 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot price showed different trends in different regions [13]. - **Related Information**: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the main markets decreased, and a green - power aluminum project in Inner Mongolia is under construction. The carbon - emission trading market is expanding, and the US is considering tariff strategies [14][15]. - **Trading Logic**: The overseas macro - environment is volatile, but domestic demand is strong, which supports the price of aluminum [17][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price of aluminum is expected to be in a high - level range - bound state in the short - term; wait and see for options trading [19]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2505 contract rose 0.06% to 24,155 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index increased. The spot market trading sentiment in Shanghai was not high [20]. - **Related Information**: The global zinc market is in a state of supply shortage, and some mining projects are expected to be put into production [21]. - **Logic Analysis**: Although there is an expectation of a large increase in supply, the current low inventory and domestic policies may support consumption, and the price is in a range - bound state [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price may be in a wide - range oscillation in the short - term and bearish in the long - term; wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [24]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2505 contract rose 0.48% to 17,615 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index decreased. The spot market trading was light [25]. - **Related Information**: The global lead market shows a change in supply and demand, and the domestic electric bicycle replacement policy has an impact on consumption [26]. - **Logic Analysis**: The high price of waste batteries leads to a reduction in the profit of secondary lead smelters, but domestic consumption is expected to be boosted [28]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price of lead is running at a high level due to market sentiment; wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [29]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai nickel main contract 2505 rose 700 to 129,670 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index increased. The spot price of nickel showed different trends [30]. - **Related Information**: The Intercontinental Exchange plans to launch derivatives of cobalt, spodumene, and nickel. The production of an MHP project in Indonesia is affected by floods [31]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price of nickel is expected to be strong in the short - term due to factors such as raw material shortages, but there is limited upward space in the medium - term [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, take a bearish view when the price rebounds [33]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2505 contract rose 50 to 13,410 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index decreased. The spot price of stainless steel is within a certain range [35]. - **Important Information**: A stainless - steel plant has started producing 304 materials, and India is considering a safeguard measure tariff on steel imports [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price of raw materials is relatively high, and the supply of 300 - series stainless steel is tight, but the upward space is limited [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the bottom of the price is rising, but the upward space is also limited; wait and see for arbitrage trading [40][41]. Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin 2504 contract closed at 277,650 yuan/ton, up 3460 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot price of tin rose [43]. - **Related Information**: The production of a tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) has stopped, and Wa State has issued a document on the resumption of tin mining [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: The shortage of tin concentrate is intensified, but the possible resumption of production in Wa State may relieve the supply pressure in the future, and the price is in a high - level wide - range oscillation [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price of tin is in a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and the risk of price decline; wait and see for options trading [49]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 9780 yuan/ton, down 1.31%. The spot price is stable [50]. - **Related Information**: A project of an organic silicon company has been put into production [51]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The rumor of joint production cuts is false, and the market is in a state of oversupply with weak demand, and the price may decline [54]. - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price may decline after the false rumor of production cuts; no strategy for options and arbitrage trading [55]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures price closed at 43,640 yuan/ton, down 0.26%. The spot price is within a certain range [56]. - **Related Information**: Henan Province has launched a new batch of source - network - load - storage integration projects [57]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The overall supply pressure of polysilicon is not large, and the market may be affected by factors such as inventory and demand expectations, and the price may be volatile [58]. - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, go long at low prices; sell out - of - the - money put options; conduct positive arbitrage for PS2506 and PS2511 contracts and reverse arbitrage for PS2511 and PS2512 contracts [59][61]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2505 contract rose 520 to 74,480 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index decreased. The spot price is stable [62]. - **Important Information**: The Intercontinental Exchange plans to launch derivatives, and some lithium - related projects are under construction [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price of lithium carbonate may continue to fall due to factors such as a decrease in imported ore prices and weak demand [64]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, take a bearish view when the price rebounds; wait and see for arbitrage trading; consider holding 2505 put ratio options [65][67].