Core Insights - The service sector's value added grew by 5.5% year-on-year in the first half of the year, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - In June, the national service production index increased by 6.0% year-on-year, with significant growth in information transmission, software, and IT services at 11.6% [1] Service Sector Performance - The value added in the information transmission, software, and IT services sector grew by 11.1%, while leasing and business services increased by 9.6% [1] - The transportation, warehousing, and postal services sector saw a value added growth of 6.4%, and wholesale and retail trade grew by 5.9% [1] Revenue and Business Activity - From January to May, the revenue of large-scale service enterprises increased by 8.1% year-on-year [1] - The service business activity index stood at 50.1 in June, indicating a slight expansion, while the business activity expectation index was at 56.0, suggesting positive future outlook [1] Sector-Specific Insights - Industries such as postal, telecommunications, broadcasting, satellite transmission services, internet software and IT services, monetary financial services, capital market services, and insurance all reported business activity indices above 55.0, indicating a high level of prosperity [1]

Group 1: Market Performance - Energy sector ETF increased by 0.45%, closing at 89.13 with a volume of 15.08 million shares and a market cap of $22.32 billion, reflecting a 5.72% increase [1][2] - Consumer discretionary ETF rose by 0.03%, closing at 221.43 with a volume of 3.35 million shares and a market cap of $27.81 billion, showing a slight decline of 0.82% [1][2] - Global airline ETF decreased by 2.26%, closing at 25.03 with a volume of 3.13 million shares and a market cap of $78.84 million, indicating a 1.26% decline [1][2] Group 2: Sector Specifics - Biotechnology index ETF fell by 1.54%, closing at 131.59 with a volume of 1.65 million shares and a market cap of $10.45 billion, down by 0.38% [1][2] - Regional bank ETF declined by 1.07%, closing at 62.89 with a volume of 1.40 million shares and a market cap of $5.25 billion, reflecting a 5.63% increase [1][2] - Financial sector ETF dropped by 1.04%, closing at 52.16 with a volume of 30.29 million shares and a market cap of $58.06 billion, showing an 8.69% increase [1][2]

Core Insights - The "Two Zones" construction in Beijing has achieved significant milestones over the past five years, with various districts showcasing their unique contributions and innovations in developing key industrial parks [3] Group 1: Innovation Policies and Economic Growth - Xicheng District has prioritized innovative policies to optimize the business environment, resulting in an average annual growth of 6.9% in the financial sector's added value, projected to reach 279.7 billion yuan by 2024, accounting for 34.3% of the city's total [4] - The district's financial institutions' asset scale is expected to grow by 6% annually, reaching 156.05 trillion yuan by 2024, representing 70.3% of the city's total [4] - Tax revenue from the financial sector in Xicheng is projected to reach 402.38 billion yuan by 2024, making up 67.7% of the city's total [4] Group 2: Talent Attraction and Industry Development - Fangshan District focuses on green energy as a key industry, with talent recruitment and training being crucial for its development [6] - The district has been approved as a new energy storage demonstration zone, with plans for 11 pilot projects and the establishment of a national technology transfer center for green energy [6][7] - Collaboration with various universities and research institutions aims to enhance the talent pool in the green energy sector [7] Group 3: Technological Innovation and Economic Diversification - Yanqing District is leveraging technological innovation and green development, focusing on low-altitude industries and establishing a unique development zone [8] - The district has introduced significant research initiatives, including the Beijing Hydrogen Aviation Innovation Research Institute, to advance hydrogen energy technologies [8] - A streamlined business environment is being created to facilitate the rapid development of the low-altitude economy [8] Group 4: Urban Transformation and New Consumption Models - Shijingshan District has transformed the Shougang Park from an industrial site into a vibrant urban space, attracting 48 foreign enterprises and achieving an annual output value exceeding 73 billion yuan [9] - The district has hosted numerous international events, enhancing its profile as a cultural and commercial hub [9] - Lize Financial Business District is developing innovative consumption scenarios, integrating high-end hotels and unique dining experiences to create a vibrant commercial atmosphere [10]

Economic Overview - Brunei's GDP in Q1 2025 decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, falling from 49.9 billion Brunei dollars to 49.0 billion Brunei dollars [1] - The oil and gas sector declined by 1.5%, while the non-oil and gas sector contracted by 2% [1] Sector Performance - The oil and gas industry's value dropped due to planned maintenance and unexpected equipment repairs, leading to a temporary decrease in natural gas and LNG production [1] - Oil production increased due to higher output from both new and existing oil wells [1] - The non-oil sector's contraction was primarily driven by significant declines in several industries: - Fisheries (-16%) - Other manufacturing (-14.6%) - Medical services (-11%) - Petrochemical manufacturing (-7.8%) - Financial services (-4.3%) - Business services (-4%) [1] Industrial Contribution - In Q1 2025, the industrial sector contributed 58.4% to GDP, the services sector contributed 40.5%, and agriculture, forestry, and fisheries contributed 1.1% [2] - The nominal GDP for the quarter was 48.5 billion Brunei dollars, showing a year-on-year decline [2] - The non-oil sector accounted for 54.2% of GDP, including downstream activities like petrochemical manufacturing, while the oil and gas sector represented 45.8% [2] Expenditure Analysis - The GDP growth rate by expenditure method declined due to a 13.2% contraction in gross capital formation, a 7% decrease in net exports of goods and services, and a 3% reduction in household final consumption expenditure [2] - In contrast, government final consumption increased by 0.8% [2]

证券代码：300022 证券简称：吉峰科技 公告编号：2025-068 吉峰三农科技服务股份有限公司 关于公司控股股东协议转让股份过户完成 暨公司控制权发生变更的公告 公司于 2025 年 7 月 9 日收到中国证券登记结算有限责任公司出具的《证券 过户登记确认书》，本次股份转让事项过户登记手续已办理完毕，过户日期为 质为无限售流通股。 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容真实、准确和完整，并对 公告中的虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏承担责任。 吉峰三农科技服务股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 7 月 9 日 收到安徽澜石企业管理咨询有限公司（以下简称"安徽澜石"）与湖北尚旌私募 基金管理有限公司（以下简称"湖北尚旌"）的通知，安徽澜石与湖北尚旌通过 协议转让方式合计受让四川五月花拓展服务有限公司（以下简称"五月花拓展"） 持有的公司股份中的 97,118,235 股股份（占公司总股本的 19.65%）事项已取得 深圳证券交易所出具确认意见，并已在中国证券登记结算有限责任公司办理完成 过户登记手续、取得了《证券过户登记确认书》。至此，公司控股股东变更为安 徽澜石，公司实际控制人变更为田刚印。具 ...

Market Overview - Major industry ETFs in the US stock market experienced an overall increase, with the biotechnology index ETF rising over 2%, and the semiconductor ETF increasing by more than 1% [1] Biotechnology Sector - The biotechnology index ETF is priced at 132.10, reflecting an increase of 2.77 (+2.14%) with a trading volume of 63,515 shares and a total market value of 10.489 billion [2] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor ETF is currently priced at 286.79, showing an increase of 3.31 (+1.17%) with a trading volume of 314,300 shares and a total market value of 33.90 billion, which is up 18.42% year-to-date [2] Global Technology Sector - The global technology stock index ETF is priced at 93.68, with an increase of 0.76 (+0.82%) and a trading volume of 5,242 shares, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 10.75% with a total market value of 1.312 billion [2] Airline Industry - The global airline industry ETF is priced at 24.13, with an increase of 0.19 (+0.79%) and a trading volume of 19,832 shares, but it has a total market value of 76.095 million, down 4.81% year-to-date [2] Healthcare Sector - The healthcare ETF is priced at 135.87, showing an increase of 0.90 (+0.67%) with a trading volume of 447,400 shares and a total market value of 26.001 billion, down 0.38% year-to-date [2] Technology Industry - The technology sector ETF is priced at 257.92, with an increase of 1.63 (+0.64%) and a trading volume of 158,900 shares, reflecting a total market value of 82.034 billion, up 11.30% year-to-date [2] Regional Banks - The regional bank ETF is priced at 63.48, showing an increase of 0.33 (+0.53%) with a trading volume of 353,000 shares and a total market value of 5.298 billion, up 6.62% year-to-date [2] Banking Sector - The banking ETF is priced at 58.74, with an increase of 0.28 (+0.48%) and a trading volume of 31,939 shares, reflecting a total market value of 4.547 billion, up 7.38% year-to-date [2] Consumer Discretionary - The consumer discretionary ETF is priced at 218.65, showing an increase of 0.99 (+0.45%) with a trading volume of 61,987 shares and a total market value of 27.463 billion, down 2.06% year-to-date [2] Financial Sector - The financial sector ETF is priced at 52.38, with an increase of 0.17 (+0.33%) and a trading volume of 1.314 million shares, reflecting a total market value of 58.301 billion, up 9.15% year-to-date [2] Utility Sector - The utility ETF is priced at 81.24, showing an increase of 0.10 (+0.12%) with a trading volume of 557,800 shares and a total market value of 11.794 billion, up 8.85% year-to-date [2] Energy Sector - The energy ETF is priced at 88.25, with a decrease of 0.26 (-0.29%) and a trading volume of 815,100 shares, reflecting a total market value of 22.100 billion, up 4.67% year-to-date [2]

Financial Performance - The company reported a significant loss of HKD 48.4 billion for the fiscal year ending March 2025, marking a 138% increase in losses compared to the previous year [1][5][6] - Total revenue for the year was HKD 13.76 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 41.5%, primarily driven by a substantial increase in property development sales, which rose by 352.2% to HKD 6.41 billion [3][5] - The company faced a liquidity crisis, with only HKD 6.39 billion in cash and bank balances against current liabilities of HKD 188 billion, including HKD 166 billion in overdue bank loans [5][8] Debt and Financial Obligations - The company has reported overdue or defaulted bank loans amounting to HKD 166 billion, with banks potentially demanding immediate repayment [6][8] - The audit firm raised concerns about the company's ability to continue as a going concern due to its financial situation [6] Management and Future Plans - The company is currently negotiating with banks to reach an agreement on a financial restructuring plan and aims to improve liquidity through property sales and rental income over the next twelve months [8] - The management is taking proactive measures to control administrative and operational costs [8] Background and Industry Context - The company operates in various sectors, including entertainment, real estate, jewelry, finance, and hospitality, with seven subsidiaries listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [10] - The founder, Yang Shoucheng, has a history of overcoming significant business challenges, including a major crisis in 1983 during the Hong Kong dollar crisis [13]

Group 1 - The article discusses the historical turning point of globalization, highlighted by the U.S. proposal for "reciprocal tariffs," which reflects a significant trade deficit and domestic demand issues in the U.S. and a mirrored situation in China with excess production capacity and insufficient domestic demand [2][8][67] - The U.S. has proposed a 10% tariff on all countries, with an additional 34% tariff specifically on China, indicating a strategic move to address trade imbalances [4][68] - The rapid escalation of tariffs between the U.S. and China, reaching as high as 125%, signifies a volatile trade relationship that has substantial implications for global economic dynamics [6][11] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the need for a macroeconomic perspective to understand the complexities of trade relations, arguing that microeconomic experiences cannot adequately inform macroeconomic policies [10][12][20] - It highlights the importance of recognizing the interconnectedness of economic variables, where government spending can influence overall economic health and consumer behavior [52][56] - The analysis points out that the U.S. trade deficit is fundamentally linked to its domestic demand exceeding production capacity, necessitating imports to meet consumption needs [74][90][93] Group 3 - The article outlines the implications of the U.S. dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency, which allows the U.S. to maintain high levels of trade deficits without immediate repercussions [106][110] - It discusses the potential consequences of the U.S. pursuing a policy of reciprocal tariffs, which may lead to reduced dollar outflows and impact the country's ability to sustain its debt levels [153][159] - The article suggests that the U.S. may face significant challenges in maintaining its economic model if it continues down the path of protectionism, potentially leading to a debt crisis [161][162] Group 4 - The article posits that China's economic strategy must adapt in response to the U.S. shift towards protectionism, emphasizing the need to boost domestic demand to mitigate reliance on exports [139][141] - It argues that if China can effectively stimulate internal consumption and investment, it could enhance its position in the global economy amidst changing trade dynamics [142][146] - The analysis concludes that the future of globalization will depend significantly on China's policy choices and its ability to navigate the challenges posed by U.S. trade policies [165][168]

宏 观 研 究 "反内卷"系列 国 内 经 济 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 屠强 A0230521070002 tuqiang@swsresearch.com 研究支持 耿佩璇 A0230124080003 gengpx@swsresearch.com 联系人 屠强 (8621)23297818× tuqiang@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 同时居民就业存在内生性的"自平衡"机制，也会使就业人员自发向生活性服务业流入。过往就业 向金融业、信息技术服务、制造业等高工资行业集中，但 2021 年后，高工资不再是影响就业流动 的关键。就业更多向工作时长较短的生活服务业流入，这些行业的时薪"被动"提高；如 2021-2023 年，卫生业周工作时长减少 1.5 小时，时薪增加 9.3 元/小时；对应就业占比较 2021 年上行 0.2pct。 2025 年 07 月 07 日 居民如何"反内卷"？ ——"反内卷"系列专题之二 ⚫ 一问：哪些群体在"内卷"？工作时间拉长挤占消费时间，制造业、生产性服务业 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite fluctuating tariff-related news, the current trade developments align with expectations, with a projected 30% tariff on China and 10% on other regions, maintaining an effective tariff level around 12% [1] - Economic uncertainty persists, but some downward risks have been controlled earlier, leading to a reduced risk of recession by 2025 [1] - The company maintains a positive outlook on the stock market, particularly focusing on the financial sectors in the US and Europe [1] Group 2 - The company holds a neutral stance on government bonds globally, noting that while yields have risen and valuations improved, concerns remain due to rising US debt levels and ongoing inflation risks [1] - The expectation is that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy easing will be less than currently reflected in the market [1] - The company continues to favor gold for portfolio diversification and holds a bearish view on the US dollar, favoring the euro and emerging market local currency bonds [1] Group 3 - Global crude oil supply is increasing, which may lead to an oversupply in the market and put pressure on oil prices in 2025, prompting a neutral stance from the company [2] - The company emphasizes the need to monitor potential risks from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that could disrupt oil supply [2] - Overall, the company believes that the risks of cyclical economic downturns are largely controlled, while the sustainability of debt levels remains a key concern [2]