Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For precious metals, short - term observation is recommended as there is a possibility of correction in the short - to - medium term, and the market is in a state of multi - empty game [4]. - For copper, prices are expected to remain high before May Day due to short - term tariff alleviation, strong pre - holiday consumption, and supply - side speculation. After May Day, the impact on consumption should be monitored [10]. - For alumina, prices are expected to stabilize and fluctuate in the short term, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [18]. - For electrolytic aluminum, prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and domestic demand - boosting policies [21]. - For zinc, prices may rebound due to low social inventory, but the fundamentals are under pressure, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [26]. - For lead, prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro factors and import profitability [31]. - For nickel, prices may fluctuate widely in the short term, and a mid - term strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended [36]. - For stainless steel, prices may fluctuate in the short term and decline in the medium term [43]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term price is expected to be weak, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [47]. - For polysilicon, the short - term price is expected to be weak, and short - term positive arbitrage should take profit and exit [49]. - For lithium carbonate, a strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended [54]. - For tin, prices are expected to adjust with fluctuations in the short term, and risk prevention is necessary [58]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - On Friday, precious metals gave back the previous day's gains. London gold closed down 0.9% at $3318.62 per ounce, and London silver closed down 1.53% at $33.1 per ounce. Shanghai gold and silver futures also declined [2]. Important Information - Trump made statements about tariff negotiations, and the US 4 - month inflation expectations and consumer confidence index were released. The probability of the Fed maintaining or cutting interest rates was also given [2]. Logic Analysis - Trump's attitude softening boosted market risk appetite, but after China's clarification, the market entered a wait - and - see state. Precious metals may correct in the short - to - medium term [4]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Temporarily observe. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [5]. Copper Market Review - LME copper closed at $9375 on Friday, up $15 or 0.16%. LME and COMEX inventories increased [7]. Important Information - Trump made statements about trade agreements, and major copper producers' production and sales expectations were reported [8]. Logic Analysis - Macro: Trump's trade agreement plan. Supply: Concentrate processing fees are falling, and smelter losses may increase. Demand: Downstream consumption has decreased, but pre - holiday stocking demand has increased [10]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices will remain high before May Day. After May Day, short - selling opportunities can be considered if consumption is affected. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [10][11]. Alumina Market Review - The night - session futures contract of alumina 2505 fell by 8 yuan/ton to 2823 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [13]. Important Information - There were issues with the Guinean shipping terminal, and the market supply was in a state of increase and decrease alternation. The relationship between price and production capacity was also analyzed [14]. Logic Analysis - After price declines and increased losses, production capacity adjustments occurred. Short - term supply - demand surplus was alleviated, and the market focused on the ore end [16]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - sell on rebounds. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [18]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session futures contract of Shanghai aluminum 2506 rose by 15 yuan/ton to 19970 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [19]. Important Information - The Politburo meeting and Trump's tariff statements were reported, and aluminum ingot inventories decreased [19][20]. Logic Analysis - Tariff issues are in negotiation. Fundamentally, the weighted开工率 of aluminum processing is stable, and the import of aluminum ingots may limit price increases. The annual supply - demand is expected to be in surplus [21]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices will fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to tariff and domestic demand policies. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [21]. Zinc Market Review - LME zinc fell 2.22% to $2645.5/ton, and Shanghai zinc 2506 fell 0.86% to 22550 yuan/ton. Spot trading was light [23]. Important Information - The Politburo meeting, industrial enterprise profit data, and LME's plan for a low - carbon metal premium mechanism were reported [24][25]. Logic Analysis - In May, domestic zinc concentrate supply will be relatively loose, and refined zinc production will remain high. Consumption is expected to decline after the peak season [25]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices may rebound due to low inventory, but short - selling on rallies can be considered. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [26]. Lead Market Review - LME lead fell 0.84% to $1945/ton, and Shanghai lead 2506 fell 0.94% to 16855 yuan/ton. Spot trading showed different performances in different regions [28]. Important Information - The Politburo meeting and the approval of nuclear power projects were reported [31]. Logic Analysis - Domestic secondary lead smelting may cut production due to losses. Prices may be strong, but attention should be paid to import profitability [31]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices will fluctuate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro and import factors. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [31]. Nickel Market Review - LME nickel fell to $15490/ton, and inventories decreased. Spot premiums and prices showed different trends [33]. Important Information - The production capacity and project responses of some nickel - related companies were reported, and Vale's nickel production increased [33][35]. Logic Analysis - Macro sentiment affects short - term prices. In May, the domestic trade benchmark price of Indonesian nickel ore decreased, but the full price remained firm. Supply is high, and demand may decline [36]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - sell on rebounds in the mid - term. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [39]. Stainless Steel Market Review - The main contract of stainless steel SS2506 fell to 12685 yuan/ton, and inventories decreased. Spot prices were reported [38][39]. Important Information - Steel Union's inventory statistics were reported [39]. Logic Analysis - Cost - driven price increases may end, and demand is unclear. Short - term prices follow nickel and macro factors, and may decline in the medium term [42]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Fluctuate in the short term and decline in the medium term. - Arbitrage: Observe [43]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - The futures price of industrial silicon fell 0.85% to 8780 yuan/ton, and spot prices continued to decline [45]. Important Information - An organic silicon factory planned to carry out maintenance [45]. Comprehensive Analysis - DMC prices are falling, and monomer enterprise maintenance is increasing. Demand is weak, and supply may increase. The price is in a negative cycle [46]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - sell on rallies. - Options: Observe. - Arbitrage: Participate in reverse arbitrage of Si2511 and Si2512 [47]. Polysilicon Market Review - The futures price of polysilicon fell 1.84% to 38390 yuan/ton, and spot prices declined [49]. Important Information - National energy data showed an increase in photovoltaic installation [49]. Comprehensive Analysis - Component, silicon wafer, and battery prices are falling, and the industry is pessimistic about demand. The futures market has strong multi - empty games, and prices are expected to decline [49]. Strategy - Unilateral: Observe in the short term and pay attention to manufacturers' production of delivery products after the holiday. - Options: None. - Arbitrage: Take profit and exit the long PS2506 and short PS2511 arbitrage [50][51]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract of lithium carbonate fell to 68180 yuan/ton, and spot prices declined [53]. Important Information - The progress of the automobile circulation reform and Tesla's situation in India were reported [53]. Logic Analysis - Production decreased last week, but inventory increased slightly, indicating weak demand. After May, supply may increase, and prices may be under pressure [53]. Pre - holiday Positioning Suggestion - Unilateral: Short - sell on rebounds. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Hold put ratio options [54]. Tin Market Review - The night - session futures contract of Shanghai tin 2505 fell 0.3% to 262025 yuan/ton, and spot prices increased. Trading was light [56]. Important Information - Trump's trade agreement statements and Tin Industry Co.'s quarterly report were reported [57]. Logic Analysis - Trump's trade negotiation plan may cause market fluctuations. The short - term supply of tin ore is tight, but the annual supply - demand tension is relieved [58]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Adjust with fluctuations in the short term and pay attention to risks. - Options: Observe [58][60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Arbitrage: Suspended [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market currently shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. Lead prices are expected to remain volatile due to the potential weakening impact of tariff factors on supply and the significant impact of tariffs on the consumer side [3] 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On April 24, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$20/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton. The prices of waste electric vehicle batteries increased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,400 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Market**: On April 24, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,965 yuan/ton and closed at 16,940 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 39,737 lots, and the open interest was 39,654 lots. The night - session closed at 17,050 yuan/ton, up 0.77% from the afternoon close [1] - **Enterprise Quotes**: The spot quotation range of Chihong lead is 16,885 - 16,960 yuan/ton, with a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton over the SHFE 2505 contract. The premium of Jijin lead and Jiangtong lead in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region has narrowed to 0 - 20 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: On April 24, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 46,000 tons, a decrease of 8,400 tons from the previous week. The LME lead inventory was 277,875 tons, an increase of 800 tons from the previous trading day [2]