(原油) 隔夜夜盘铜价震荡调整，但美盘铜尾盘随贵金属收回跌势。昨日美伦价差盘中反转，LME现货贴水扩 至93美元。贵金属短线波动大，市场焦点转向地缘、美国政府月底"停摆"、甚至美国内部冲突风 险。关注短期均线位置强弱,延续铜价高位震荡且倾向调整的看法。 【铝】 夜盘油价大幅反弹，Brent原油涨至接近67美元/桶，NTI接近63美元/桶。冬季风暴天气导致美国能 源基础设施和电网承压，石油生产商在上周末损失的产量最高达200万桶/日，约占全国产量的 15%。据悉Tengiz油田在2月7日之前恢复不到一半的正常产量，该油田自火灾和停电事故后恢复始 终不及预期。API库存数据显示原油去库,数据偏利多。美元指数连续走弱亦提振油价表现。意外天 气导致原油供应受限的因素迅速得到计价，然目前三大机构平衡表显示202601全球原油市场库存压 力显著，市场谨慎对待天气和地缘因素带来的短期供应犹动，供需宽松始终是压制油价上行空间的 长期因素。 【责金属】 隔夜美元指数刷新近四年新低，贵金属延续强势运行，黄金逻辑稳固，银铂兜波动风险较高。特朗 普称美国已向伊朗方向派遣了一支庞大的海军舰队，但希望最终无需动用武力。关注中东局势演绎 ...

农产品早报 | 鸡蛋 | | | 产区 | | | 期现 | | 替代品 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 河北 | 辽宁 | 山东 | 河南 | 湖北 | 基差 | 白羽肉鸡 | 黄羽肉鸡 | 生猪 | | 2026/01/21 | 3.51 | 3.44 | 3.70 | 3.80 | 3.67 | 440 | 3.70 | 3.65 | 18.50 | | 2026/01/22 | 3.62 | 3.56 | 3.80 | 3.90 | 3.67 | 412 | 3.70 | 3.65 | 18.50 | | 2026/01/23 | 3.73 | 3.67 | 3.90 | 4.00 | 3.80 | 511 | 3.70 | 3.65 | 18.49 | | 2026/01/26 | 3.73 | 3.67 | 3.90 | 4.00 | 3.84 | 510 | 3.80 | 3.70 | 18.65 | | 2026/01/27 | 3.84 | 3.78 | 4.00 | 4.10 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal showed a strong and volatile trend. Brazilian soybean harvesting rate reached 2.3% as of January 17th. Positive Sino - US talks boosted expectations for US soybean exports. The upcoming biofuel policy from the US EPA also lifted demand expectations, leading to a rebound in US soybean futures prices. However, high domestic soybean meal inventories and expected high - yield in South America will continue to pressure prices [3] - Oils and fats: Night trading of oils and fats was strong, with palm oil leading the increase. Malaysia's palm oil exports were strong in January, and production decreased month - on - month. With the reduction of Malaysian palm oil tariffs, future export expectations improved. Malaysian palm oil entered a destocking cycle during the production - reduction season, which supported palm oil prices. The upcoming US biofuel policy details are expected to support soybean oil. Tight rapeseed oil supply will continue to support prices, and short - term oils and fats are expected to remain strongly volatile [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil futures were 8258, 9238, and 9326 respectively. The price changes were 32, 146, and - 19, with percentage changes of 0.39%, 1.61%, and - 3.15% respectively. For soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures, the closing prices were 2766 and 2410, with changes of - 3 and 10, and percentage changes of - 0.11% and 0.42% respectively. The peanut futures price was 8844, with a change of 26 and a percentage change of 0.29% [2] - **Spreads and Ratios**: For example, the Y9 - 1 spread of soybean oil changed from 16 to 22, the P9 - 1 spread of palm oil changed from 42 to 104. The M9 - 1 spread of soybean meal changed from - 47 to - 48, and the RM9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal changed from 64 to 69. The M - RM09 spread was 566, and the M/RM09 ratio was 1.25 [2] International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4172 ringgit/ton, 1068 cents/bu, 54.40 cents/lb, and 294 dollars/ton respectively. The price changes were 51.0, 7.5, 0.6, and - 0.2, with percentage changes of 1.24%, 0.71%, 1.10%, and - 0.07% respectively [2] Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil were 8700 and 8780 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.00% and 0.23%. The spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil were 9170, with a percentage change of 1.55%. The spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil were 10130 and 10150, with percentage changes of 1.40% and 0.89% [2] - **Basis and Spreads**: The spot basis for Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil was 442 and 522 respectively. The spot basis for Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil was - 68. The spot basis for Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil was 804 and 824. The spot spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil changed from - 280 to - 260 [2] Import Profit and Pressure - The import profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil was - 184 (previously - 121), near - month US Gulf soybeans was - 184 (previously - 205), near - month Brazilian soybeans was 51 (previously 17), near - month US West soybeans was - 150 (previously - 168), near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil was 634 (previously 655), and near - month Canadian rapeseed was 509 (previously 484) [2] Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 26,210, 948, and 625 respectively. For soybean meal, it was 32,428. For rapeseed meal and peanuts, it was 0. The previous values were 26,525, 1,148, 625, 32,428, 0, and 0 respectively [2] Industry Information - Malaysian palm oil production from January 1 - 25, 2026: The yield per unit decreased by 15.28% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.11% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 14.81% month - on - month. In Argentina, the corn sowing progress was 93.1%, and the soybean sowing progress was 96.2%. The US Department of Agriculture predicted Argentina's corn production at 53 million tons and soybean production at 48.5 million tons [3]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 玉米：中性 1．昨日到车612车，较前一日减少119车，预计作业量4.3万吨；火车到货46节（约2760吨），港口作业轮船5艘，整体高位看多情绪高涨，虽然价格上方明 显，但周内暂无回落迹象，周内仍将维持高位震荡运行 2．北方四港库存合计149.7万吨，周度上调14.5万吨，北方港口库存继续上调，而南方港口库存出现去化，区域间库存结构分化明显。一方面北方到港压力 仍在，另一方面南方饲料需求与补库行为对价格形成一定支撑，区域价差对盘面形成扰动但尚未构成明确方向性指引。 豆粕：中性 3.2025进口玉米264.87万吨，同比下降80.58%。进口供给明显收缩。进口替代压力减弱，对国内玉米形成中期支撑，但短期市场已部分消化该利多，边际影 响趋弱。 观点总结：玉米03主力观察2250附近的支撑，上方维持2330。 1．缺乏边际驱动，CBOT大豆震荡运行。预报显示未来一周巴西大部降雨形势良好，有利于作物生长；阿根廷科尔多瓦省降水有利于改善土壤墒情，但圣 菲省以及布宜诺斯艾利斯省大部仍然仅有零星降雨，关注干旱发展的可能性； 2．国内油厂大豆、豆粕呈现季节性去 ...

特朗普最新表态对于弱势美元较为满意，市场风险偏好上升， 美元指数明显走弱。 宏观策略（股指期货） 12 月规上工企利润同比增 5.3% 综 A 股震荡缩量上涨，市场仍有一定韧性，但逻辑主线近期较为混 乱，投机情绪主导行情。未来随着监管层持续加码，我们认为 风格差异或将收敛。仍建议均衡配置各股指多头。 日度报告——综合晨报 美元走弱，金价再创新高 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-01-28 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国消费者信心跌至 2014 年以来低点 合 宏观策略（黄金） 晨 CME 调整白银保证金 报 金价再度上涨创新高，主要受到美元指数大跌的驱动，一方面 是市场对美元信用的担忧持续强化，对黄金储备需求增加。一 方面是日本有联合干预外汇市场的预期，美元大跌利多黄金 有色金属（锡） Alphamin 2025 年锡矿产量 18,576 吨 印尼拟出台锡的最低成本价格机制 能源化工（原油） API 美国原油库存下降 油价上涨，因供应扰动因素支撑油价。 未获得东证期货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。本报告的信息均来源于 公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作 ...

在卡尼访华期间，中加两国达成了一项初步贸易协议：中国将降低对加拿大油菜籽征收的关税，作为交 换，加拿大则将削减对中国电动汽车加征的关税。 环球时报消息，1月27日，两名贸易消息人士向路透社透露，在加拿大总理马克·卡尼本月早些时候访问 中国之后，中国进口商已敲定多达10船加拿大油菜籽的采购协议。此举有助于缓解市场供应紧张局面。 据两位直接了解交易情况的贸易商表示，这批加拿大油菜籽预计将于2月至4月间发货，每船载重约6.5 万吨。报道称，10船总计约65万吨的油菜籽，相当于中国2024年全年油菜籽进口量的10%以上。 "现在把加拿大油菜籽运进中国市场很容易，压榨企业已经提前预订了这些货，"一位供职于国际农业公 司的消息人士表示。 原标题：外媒爆料：中国在加下大单 编辑：黄灵 责编：吴光亮 审核：廖异 油菜籽（又称芥花籽）经压榨可生产食用油等产品，压榨后留下的高蛋白菜粕则广泛用作牲畜饲料。 1月22日，针对中国和加拿大就油菜籽问题达成贸易协议，商务部新闻发言人何咏前称，中方将在规则 框架内充分考虑加方的合理诉求，基于事实和证据作出最终裁决。 ...

在卡尼访华期间，中加两国达成了一项初步贸易协议：中国将降低对加拿大油菜籽征收的关税，作为交 换，加拿大则将削减对中国电动汽车加征的关税。 油菜籽（又称芥花籽）经压榨可生产食用油等产品，压榨后留下的高蛋白菜粕则广泛用作牲畜饲料。 1月22日，针对中国和加拿大就油菜籽问题达成贸易协议，商务部新闻发言人何咏前称，中方将在规则 框架内充分考虑加方的合理诉求，基于事实和证据作出最终裁决。 陈葭 1月27日，两名贸易消息人士向路透社透露，在加拿大总理马克·卡尼本月早些时候访问中国之后，中国 进口商已敲定多达10船加拿大油菜籽的采购协议。此举有助于缓解市场供应紧张局面。 据两位直接了解交易情况的贸易商表示，这批加拿大油菜籽预计将于2月至4月间发货，每船载重约6.5 万吨。报道称，10船总计约65万吨的油菜籽，相当于中国2024年全年油菜籽进口量的10%以上。 "现在把加拿大油菜籽运进中国市场很容易，压榨企业已经提前预订了这些货，"一位供职于国际农业公 司的消息人士表示。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The relationship between the United States and Canada has soured, with President Trump threatening to impose a 100% tariff on Canadian goods if Canada reaches a trade agreement with China, reflecting a strategy to pressure Canada into abandoning its cooperation with China [1][8][12]. Group 1: U.S.-Canada Relations - Trump's threats are seen as an attempt to assert U.S. dominance over Canada, which has historically relied heavily on the U.S. economy [5][12]. - The U.S. imports significant amounts of oil from Canada and relies on Canadian automotive parts, indicating a deep economic interdependence [12][14]. - Trump's rhetoric includes calling Canada a "state" of the U.S., emphasizing his view that Canada should not engage independently with China [8][10]. Group 2: Canada's Response - Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau responded calmly to Trump's threats, promoting a "buy Canadian" campaign without directly confronting the U.S. [17][19]. - Trudeau's approach signals a commitment to diversifying Canada's trade partnerships and reducing reliance on the U.S. market [21][23]. - The Canadian government has been actively seeking new trade partners, as evidenced by Trudeau's recent visits to China and Qatar [23][25]. Group 3: China-Canada Relations - Canada and China signed a trade cooperation roadmap earlier this year, which has angered the U.S. [3][34]. - China's stance emphasizes mutual benefit and cooperation, rejecting the notion that its relationship with Canada is a threat to the U.S. [34][36]. - The trade relationship between China and Canada is characterized by mutual advantages, with Canada exporting agricultural products to China and importing Chinese goods [38][40]. Group 4: Global Implications - The escalating tensions between the U.S. and Canada, influenced by China's involvement, have drawn global attention [32][44]. - The article suggests that the U.S. is struggling to maintain its hegemonic position as more countries seek independent trade relationships [42][46]. - The narrative indicates a shift towards a multipolar world where countries are increasingly choosing their own paths for economic cooperation [42][48].

欧盟称敏感农产品未纳入印欧贸易协定。 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 油粕日报：美国 45Z 生物燃料政策加快落地 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 27 日 豆粕：AgRural 公司：截至上周四，巴西 2025/26 年度大豆收割进度已达种 植面积的 4.9%。将巴西 2025/26 年度大豆产量预期上调至 1.81 亿吨，此前预估 为 1.804 亿吨。主要作物产量预期继续小幅上调，若后期天气配合，全球谷物与 油籽供应前景将更为宽松。初期收割与种植进度符合季节性规律，未来市场关注 点将转向单产确认及产区天气变化。USDA 出口检验：截至 2026 年 1 月 22 日的 一周，美国大豆出口检验量为 1,324,408 吨，去年同期为 738,028 吨。2025/26 年度迄今美国大豆出口检验总量达到 20,668,363 吨，同比减少 37.5%。2025/26 年度迄今美国大豆出口达到全年出口目标的 48.2%。 据 Mysteel 对国内主要油厂调查数据显示：2026 年第 4 周，全国主要油厂 大豆库存下降，豆粕库存下降，未执行合同下降。 其中大豆库存 658.99 万吨， 较上周减少 28.34 万吨，减幅 4.12%，同比去年增加 207. ...