Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining's ESG rating remains stagnant at B level from 2022 to 2024, significantly lower than its peers in the industrial metals sector, raising concerns among investors about its governance and environmental practices [3][4][7]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Zijin Mining's revenue exceeded 300 billion yuan, marking a 3.49% year-on-year increase, while net profit reached over 30 billion yuan, up 51.76% year-on-year [4]. - The company's revenue growth rate in 2024 is the lowest since 2014 [4]. Environmental Concerns - The amount of hazardous waste generated per unit of revenue increased by over 70% in 2024, reaching 0.94 tons per million yuan of revenue [8]. - Energy consumption intensity reached 4.59 MWh per ten thousand yuan of industrial added value, the highest in five years, with a year-on-year increase of 3.27% [7][9]. - Total water consumption rose to 72.52 million tons, a 9.66% increase year-on-year, while fresh water usage intensity increased to 238.84 tons per million yuan of revenue, up 5.97% [7][9]. Social Responsibility Issues - Employee turnover rate increased to 8.49% in 2024, with significant losses among Chinese employees [10]. - The company reported 104 employees disciplined for corruption-related issues, reflecting a rise in internal governance problems [13]. Governance and Ethical Practices - The coverage rate of business ethics training for employees dropped to the lowest level in three years, at 75.25% [14]. - The total number of complaints and reports reached 236 in 2024, doubling from 104 in 2020, indicating a significant rise in reported misconduct [13][14]. Shareholder Returns - In 2024, Zijin Mining executed only one share buyback worth less than 3 million yuan, significantly lower than competitors [16]. - The cumulative dividend payout ratio since listing is 38.14%, which is lower than several peers in the industry [16][17].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 303.64 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 32.05 billion yuan, up 52% year-on-year [2] - The company's copper and gold production volumes increased, contributing to significant revenue growth, with copper production reaching 1.07 million tons, a 6% increase year-on-year [3][4] - The gross profit margins for major products improved due to price increases and cost reductions, with copper and gold gross margins at 61% and 56% respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 6 and 11 percentage points [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 303.64 billion yuan and a net profit of 32.05 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 10.6% [2][5] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 1.21 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.97 [1][11] - The company’s operating cash flow for 2024 is expected to be 48.86 billion yuan, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [11]

同时盘中看到涨幅榜的两个板块，一是旅游旅游，在周末的时候有多地放春假，因此旅游股在今天短期 表现活跃，旅游是小盘股，适合这种短期炒作，投资者注意短炒就可以了。二是有色，虽然它叫工业金 属或农业金属，但整体来看就是铜和合金，铜类整体的走势趋势上还是比较明显，因此我们在月初的时 候看好有色，还是保持继续跟踪看好就行了。 和讯投顾李国学：大盘分化严重，只可逢低不可追 涨 3月24日，大盘盘中走势不稳，但最终收红收涨。盘后，和讯投顾李国学分析表示，盘中的整体状态， 技术形态上仍然还是喇叭口状态，3350点下方的最低点3340点。 这个位置能否直接反弹起来？李国学表示，3月底的时候大家应该关注两大问题：第一个是季度末资金 面的问题。上周央行7天逆回购是净投放资金，今天是净回笼，因此要注意资金的变化。第二是年报季 可以说是有喜有忧，大盘股在最近一个阶段里有多家发布财报，对指数起到一定的稳定作用，比如今天 的银行、保险，另外，一些小盘股也有着一些戴瑁压力，因此市场分化比较严重。 指数层面，在3月底之前，今天虽然收了下影线的阳线，但是还是震荡的过程，只可逢低不可追涨，盯 的方向方面，一是有色继续盯住，除了黄金、有色、铜、铝等 ...

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 03 15 年 月 日 中国宏桥（01378.HK） 历史最佳业绩，一体化成本优势凸显 事件：公司已于 3 月 14 日公布 2024 年全年业绩，2024 年公司实现营收 1561.7 亿元，同比增长 16.9%；实现归母净利润 223.7 亿元，同比增长 95.2%；扣非归母净利润 245.7 亿元，同比增长 96.1%；基本每股收益 2.36 元，同比增长 95.2%。净利润增加主要系电解铝及氧化铝"量价齐 升"及原材料采购价格较 2023 年同期下降所致。目前铝价在全球低库存 及国内供给刚性凸显下维持高位预期，并有望伴随美联储降息及新能源 相关绿色用铝占比提升带来定价中枢进一步上移，凭借铝行业高景气延 续，公司业绩弹性有望持续提升。 受益铝行业高景气，各产品"量价齐升"增厚公司业绩。1）量，公司实 现电解铝销量 583.7 万吨，同比增长 1.5%；氧化铝销量 1092.1 万吨， 同比增长 5.3%；铝合金加工产品销量 76.6 万吨，同比增长 32.1%。2） 价，公司电解铝外售价为 1.755 万元/吨（不含税），同比增长 6. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on non-ferrous metal stocks, particularly under supply constraints, anticipating strong performance in the upcoming months [2]. Core Insights - The suspension of mining operations by Alphamin Resources in the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to shift the tin supply-demand balance from slight surplus to slight shortage in 2025 [3][8]. - The report highlights a significant increase in aluminum demand and a reduction in inventory levels, indicating a positive trend for aluminum prices and profitability in the sector [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the potential for price increases in strategic minor metals such as tin, antimony, and cobalt due to supply constraints and rising demand [8]. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metal sector consists of 126 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 30,247.68 billion [4]. - Recent performance metrics show a 6.3% increase over the past month and a 34.0% increase over the past six months for the sector [5]. - The report notes that copper inventories have reached a turning point, with ongoing supply-demand conflicts in the mining and smelting sectors [7]. Aluminum Industry Insights - Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory has decreased to 869,000 tons, reflecting a 1.5% reduction week-on-week, indicating improving demand [7]. - The report forecasts continued improvement in aluminum fundamentals as the peak season approaches, with expectations of profit recovery in the electrolytic aluminum industry [7]. Copper Industry Insights - The report indicates a decrease in domestic electrolytic copper inventory to 352,900 tons, down by 18,000 tons week-on-week, suggesting tightening supply conditions [7]. - The report suggests that the copper market is experiencing heightened tensions between mining and smelting operations, which could impact future pricing [7]. Minor Metals Insights - The report anticipates a significant increase in tin production from Alphamin, with a projected output of 20,000 tons in 2025, which could be affected by the recent suspension of operations [8]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with clear growth potential in tin and antimony production, such as Xingye Silver Tin and Hunan Gold [8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" which indicates an expected performance exceeding the market by more than 5% over the next six months [61]. Core Views - Precious Metals - Gold: As of March 14, the COMEX gold futures contract increased by 2.6% to $2993.6 per ounce, supported by rising market expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025. The SPDR Gold ETF also saw a 1.3% increase to 906.41 tons. The overall outlook suggests that gold prices will continue to show strength in the long term due to persistent inflation expectations and weakening dollar credibility [5]. - Industrial Metals: Supply disruptions across multiple varieties are expected to drive price increases in industrial metals. The report highlights the importance of monitoring these trends [6]. - Copper: As of March 14, SHFE copper futures rose by 2.8% to 80,500 RMB per ton. Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 13,000 tons to 355,000 tons, indicating a gradual recovery in downstream demand. The report suggests that copper's "hard commodity" nature will become more pronounced, leading to a potential price increase [8][10]. - Aluminum: SHFE aluminum futures increased by 0.7% to 20,990 RMB per ton. The report notes a continuous decline in alumina prices, which may support aluminum profits. The overall outlook for aluminum remains positive due to expected demand recovery [8][10]. - Tin: SHFE tin futures surged by 9.47% to 287,800 RMB per ton. The report indicates a significant supply gap due to the temporary shutdown of the Bisie mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which could exacerbate the tin supply shortage. The demand from the semiconductor sector is also expected to rise, enhancing the long-term outlook for tin [9][10]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices reached new highs, with a significant increase in both futures and ETF holdings. The market anticipates potential interest rate cuts, which may further support gold prices [5]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Price increase noted, with a decrease in domestic inventory and a focus on long-term demand growth [8][10]. - **Aluminum**: Positive outlook due to recovering demand and declining costs, with a recommendation to monitor the sector [8][10]. - **Tin**: Significant price increase driven by supply constraints and rising demand from the semiconductor industry [9][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the copper, aluminum, and tin sectors. Specific companies recommended include Zijin Mining for copper, Tianshan Shares for aluminum, and Xiyang Shares for tin, based on their potential for strong performance in the upcoming months [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company achieved its best historical performance in 2024, with revenue of 156.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.37 billion yuan, up 95.2% year-on-year [1]. - The increase in net profit is primarily due to the simultaneous rise in both volume and price of electrolytic aluminum and alumina, along with a decrease in raw material procurement prices compared to the same period in 2023 [1]. - The report anticipates that aluminum prices will remain high due to low global inventory and rigid domestic supply, with potential further increases in pricing driven by Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and a rise in green aluminum usage [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company sold 5.837 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, a 1.5% increase year-on-year, and 10.921 million tons of alumina, a 5.3% increase year-on-year [2]. - The average selling price for electrolytic aluminum was 17,550 yuan/ton, up 6.6% year-on-year, while alumina's selling price was 3,420 yuan/ton, up 33.6% year-on-year [2]. - The gross margin for electrolytic aluminum increased by 7.2 percentage points to 24.6%, and for alumina, it rose by 24.3 percentage points to 35.4% [2]. Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The decline in coal prices has improved power generation costs, with a reduction of 86 yuan/ton in coal prices leading to a decrease of 377.3 yuan in the cost of producing one ton of electrolytic aluminum [3]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is becoming rigid, with production capacity nearing 44 million tons, which, combined with recovering demand, is expected to support high aluminum prices [3]. Future Projections - The report projects net profits for the company to be 21.4 billion yuan in 2025, 24.2 billion yuan in 2026, and 26.9 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 6.7, 5.9, and 5.3, respectively [4][5]. - The company is expected to benefit from its integrated cost advantages and overseas expansion, leading to significant growth [4].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong performance in the non-ferrous metals sector, with a weekly increase of 7.08%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.52 percentage points [1][9]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic sentiment has improved, leading to a strong performance in the non-ferrous metals and steel sectors. The report emphasizes the importance of cyclical commodities, recommending industrial metals such as copper and aluminum, as well as the steel sector [2][21]. - The government work report for 2025 sets a GDP growth target of around 5% and a budget deficit rate of approximately 4%, indicating a continuation of proactive fiscal policies to boost consumption and improve macroeconomic sentiment [2][21]. - Key price movements include a significant drop in alumina prices, which is expected to enhance the profitability of electrolytic aluminum producers. The report anticipates a continued upward trend in electrolytic aluminum prices due to a tight supply situation [2][22]. - The report highlights the potential for copper prices to rise amid "re-inflation" expectations, with a focus on the supply dynamics and the possibility of reduced production in the smelting sector [2][24]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.56%, with the non-ferrous metals sector leading at +7.08%. Industrial metals increased by 8.43%, precious metals by 6.48%, and energy metals by 4.58% [1][9]. - Top-performing stocks included Huayu Mining (+47.77%) and Xinweiling (+45.12%), while the worst performers were Liyuan Co. (-8.97%) and *ST Zhongrun (-8.88%) [1][9]. Metal Prices & Inventory Changes - Copper prices on the LME reached $9,602.00 per ton, up 2.57% week-on-week, while domestic prices were at ¥78,320.00 per ton, up 1.93% [16][27]. - Aluminum prices increased to $2,689.00 per ton on the LME, a rise of 3.26%, with domestic prices at ¥20,835.00 per ton, up 0.94% [25][27]. - Zinc prices also saw an increase, with LME prices at $2,882.00 per ton, up 3.00% [17][27]. Core Insights Update and Key Stock Tracking - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the non-ferrous metals sector, recommending investments in copper and aluminum due to expected price increases driven by supply constraints and improving demand [2][22]. - The report notes that the price of strategic metals like praseodymium-neodymium oxide has stabilized, with a current price of ¥460,900.00 per ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 5.44% [53][54].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][63]. Core Viewpoints - Precious Metals - Gold: The US unemployment rate is rising, leading to a short-term increase in gold prices. As of March 7, COMEX gold futures rose by 1.76% to $2917.7 per ounce, while SPDR Gold ETF decreased by 1.1% to 894.34 tons. The unemployment rate in the US reached 4.1%, up by 0.1 percentage points. The market anticipates potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, which supports gold prices in the short term. However, profit-taking may lead to price fluctuations, with a long-term bullish outlook due to inflation expectations and weakening dollar credit [3][4]. - Industrial Metals: Supply disruptions are expected to drive price increases in industrial metals. The report highlights the importance of monitoring these trends [4]. - Copper: As of March 7, SHFE copper futures rose by 1.9% to 78,320 yuan per ton. Domestic copper social inventory reached 368,000 tons, with a decrease of 8,100 tons. The report indicates that the US manufacturing PMI recovery may boost industrial metal demand, and the long-term supply rigidity of copper is expected to support price increases [8][10]. - Aluminum: As of March 7, SHFE aluminum futures increased by 0.9% to 20,835 yuan per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory was 871,000 tons, with a continued decline. The report suggests that the aluminum sector may see price increases due to demand recovery and cost support [8][10]. - Tin: As of March 7, SHFE tin futures rose by 2.65% to 262,900 yuan per ton. Domestic tin social inventory decreased by 754 tons to 8,399 tons. The report anticipates a global tin shortage if production resumes in Q2, with long-term demand growth driven by AI applications [9][10]. - Cobalt: As of March 7, cobalt concentrate prices increased by 35.7% year-on-year. The Democratic Republic of Congo announced a temporary ban on cobalt exports, which is expected to tighten global supply and support price rebounds [9][10]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to remain strong in the long term due to inflation and dollar credit concerns [3][4]. Industrial Metals - Copper: Demand recovery and supply constraints are expected to support copper prices [8][10]. - Aluminum: The sector is likely to experience price increases due to recovering demand and cost factors [8][10]. - Tin: Anticipated global shortages and AI-driven demand growth are key factors for the tin market [9][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the copper, aluminum, and tin sectors, highlighting specific companies such as Zijin Mining, Tianshan Shares, and Xiyang Shares for potential investment opportunities [10][62].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for the electrolytic aluminum sector, indicating an upward trend in aluminum prices for 2025 [2][34]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the destocking of electrolytic aluminum is occurring earlier than in previous years, leading to a tightening supply-demand balance, which is expected to support aluminum prices [3][4]. - The average profit for the electrolytic aluminum industry has significantly improved, transitioning from losses at the end of the previous year to substantial profits in early 2025, driven by falling costs of alumina and electricity [3][18]. - The demand structure for aluminum is undergoing transformation, with significant growth expected in the new energy and power sectors, which will offset declines in the real estate sector [15][34]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of February 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity reached 45.17 million tons, nearing its ceiling, with an operating capacity of 43.98 million tons and a utilization rate of 97.4% [15][34]. - The total inventory of electrolytic aluminum (ingots and rods) decreased by 25,100 tons compared to the previous week, indicating a shift towards destocking earlier than in past years [3][4]. Cost Analysis - The price of alumina has dropped significantly, with a reported price of 3,381 RMB/ton as of March 6, 2025, down 41.4% from its peak in December 2024, leading to a reduction in electrolytic aluminum production costs by approximately 4,597 RMB/ton [18][29]. - The price of coal has also decreased, with Q5500 coal prices falling to 700 RMB/ton, resulting in a corresponding drop in electricity costs for aluminum production [29][30]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with significant cost improvements and stable performance, such as Yun Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, and China Aluminum, as potential investment opportunities [34][35].