Core Viewpoint - The economic performance in July 2025 demonstrates resilience and vitality despite external pressures and adverse weather conditions, with steady growth in production, consumption, and investment, alongside stable employment and prices [7][10][20]. Economic Performance Overview - The industrial output in July showed a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, with the equipment manufacturing sector growing by 8.4%, indicating strong industrial growth [7][51]. - The service sector also performed well, with a production index growth of 5.8% in July, driven by increased tourism and related services [7][15]. - Social retail sales increased by 3.7% year-on-year in July, with a notable 4% growth in goods retail [8][14]. - Fixed asset investment grew by 1.6% from January to July, with significant contributions from equipment updates and manufacturing investments [8][45]. Trade and Employment - The total import and export volume increased by 6.7% year-on-year in July, reflecting the resilience of foreign trade despite a complex international environment [8][31]. - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.2%, indicating a steady employment situation [9][20]. New Growth Drivers - High-tech manufacturing saw a 9.3% increase in output, with significant growth in sectors like integrated circuits and new energy vehicles [10][38]. - The digital economy is rapidly developing, with a 8.4% increase in digital product manufacturing in July [10][38]. Consumer Trends - Consumer demand is being stimulated by policies such as the "old for new" consumption initiative, leading to increased sales in home appliances and cultural products [8][14]. - The service sector is experiencing growth, particularly in tourism and digital services, with a notable increase in transportation and cultural service indices [15][56]. Investment Landscape - Investment in manufacturing is growing, with a 6.2% increase in manufacturing investment from January to July, particularly in textiles and automotive sectors [45][46]. - Infrastructure investment is also on the rise, with water management and information transmission sectors seeing significant growth [46][47]. Policy Impact - The implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies is supporting production and investment growth, with a focus on stabilizing employment and market expectations [10][23]. - The government's commitment to deepening reform and opening up is enhancing the resilience and vitality of the economy [21][32].

Economic Overview - In July, China's economy demonstrated a steady and progressive development trend, with continuous growth in production and demand, stable employment and prices, and significant advancements in new productive forces, contributing to high-quality development [2][3] Industrial Performance - Industrial production showed a steady upward trend, with the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increasing by 5.7% year-on-year in July and 6.3% cumulatively from January to July, surpassing the average of the past five years by 0.42 percentage points [3][4] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing emerged as the main growth engines, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.3% and 8.4%, respectively, outpacing the overall industrial growth rate [3][4] - New productive forces are being cultivated, with significant increases in the production of smart drones (80.8%), new energy vehicles (17.1%), and integrated circuits (26.9%) [3][4] Consumer Market Dynamics - The retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.88 trillion yuan in July, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, while the cumulative total for January to July reached 28.42 trillion yuan, growing by 4.8% [5][6] - Service consumption showed strong momentum, with a 5.2% year-on-year increase in service retail sales from January to July, driven by summer tourism [5][6] - Upgraded products saw significant sales growth, with office supplies increasing by 13.8%, home appliances by 28.7%, and furniture by 20.6% [5][6] Foreign Trade Resilience - In July, China's total goods import and export value increased by 6.7% year-on-year, with exports growing by 8% and imports by 4.8%, indicating strong external demand resilience [7][8] - From January to July, the total value of goods trade reached 25.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [7][8] - The resilience in foreign trade is attributed to the deepening economic cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road, stable policies from the US-China tariff truce, and the growth of high-value-added product exports [7][8] Policy Outlook - The macroeconomic policies are expected to further strengthen in the second half of the year, with high-tech manufacturing and green industries projected to maintain growth rates around 10% [9][10] - Continued support for consumption through policies like trade-in programs and financial assistance for the service sector is anticipated [9][10] - Infrastructure investment is expected to rebound with the gradual allocation of special bonds and the introduction of new policy financial tools [9][10]

Economic Overview - The national economy shows a steady growth trend, with industrial added value above designated size increasing by 5.7% year-on-year in July and 6.3% from January to July [1][3] - The service industry continues to grow rapidly, contributing significantly to economic stability [6] Industrial Production - Industrial production maintains robust growth, with high-quality development progressing steadily, showcasing resilience and potential [1] - High-tech manufacturing added value increased by 9.3% year-on-year in July, with significant growth in integrated circuits and electronic materials [2] - Equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors are key contributors, with respective growth rates of 8.4% and 9.3% [1][2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment continues to expand, with a total of 288,229 billion yuan from January to July, marking a 1.6% year-on-year increase [3] - Manufacturing investment grew by 6.2%, with high-tech industries such as aerospace and information services seeing substantial increases [3] Consumer Market - Retail sales showed positive growth, with total retail sales reaching 38,780 billion yuan in July, up 3.7% year-on-year [4] - Online retail sales increased by 9.2%, indicating a strong shift towards e-commerce [4][5] - The consumption upgrade policy, including trade-in programs, has positively impacted sales of upgraded goods [5] Service Sector Growth - The service sector's contribution to economic growth is significant, with a 5.5% year-on-year increase in added value in the first half of 2025 [6] - The service production index rose by 5.8% in July, with information technology services growing at 11.9% [6]

Group 1: Economic Growth in Central China - The central region of China, comprising six provinces, is showing strong economic growth, with five provinces exceeding the national GDP growth rate in the first half of the year [1] - The region is crucial to the national economy, representing about one-tenth of the land area and one-quarter of the population [1] - High-tech manufacturing has become a significant driver of economic growth in the central region, indicating a clear trend towards optimizing industrial structure [1] Group 2: Consumer Market Potential - The central region has a vast consumer market potential, housing about one-quarter of the national population [2] - Provinces are implementing various measures to convert population advantages into economic achievements, such as expanding online consumption and enhancing rural commerce [2] - Initiatives like the "old for new" consumption upgrade are being promoted to stimulate consumer demand effectively [2] Group 3: Foreign Trade and Open Economy - Despite being inland and facing external trade challenges, the central provinces are actively expanding their foreign trade networks [3] - There is a noticeable increase in the export of high-tech products, indicating an optimization of export structure and the release of innovation-driven trade benefits [3] - The region is focusing on building inland open channels and enhancing connectivity through ports and logistics to facilitate global market access [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for macroeconomic policies to continuously exert force and adapt as necessary to stabilize and stimulate economic growth, especially in light of recent economic indicators showing a slowdown [2][8][10] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a decline in key economic indicators for July, including a 3.7% year-on-year growth in retail sales of consumer goods, which is the lowest for the year [3][4] - Investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) reached 288.229 billion yuan in the first seven months, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.6%, with infrastructure investment growing by 3.2% [4][6] Group 2 - The government is expected to implement new incremental policies, including timely budget increases, interest rate cuts, and measures to support the real estate sector and foreign trade enterprises [2][8][9] - The manufacturing sector, particularly high-tech industries, has shown resilience, with significant year-on-year growth in sectors such as integrated circuit manufacturing (26.9%) and electronic materials (21.7%) [3][6] - The service sector's retail sales remained stable, with a 5.2% growth from January to July, indicating a sustained expansion in consumption [4][6] Group 3 - The government plans to enhance fiscal policies by accelerating the issuance of special bonds and improving the effectiveness of fiscal measures to stimulate economic activity [10][11] - The People's Bank of China aims to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy while optimizing the structure of financial resource allocation to support innovation and advanced manufacturing [11][12] - The focus on expanding domestic demand and enhancing the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods is a priority for the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [12]

Report Overview - The report is an event review of the economic data for July 2025 released by the National Bureau of Statistics on August 15, 2025, covering production, consumption, investment, market, and bond market views [1]. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly; structural issues such as prices are trending towards improvement; the allocation between stocks and bonds will continue to shift, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise continuously [6]. Summary by Section Production - In July, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 5.7%, 1.1 percentage points slower than that in June, and the month - on - month growth rate was 0.38%. The growth rate slowed down slightly due to seasonal factors [2]. - The equipment manufacturing industry continued to play a key role in industrial production. In July, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry above the designated size was 8.4%, significantly supporting the growth of industrial enterprises above the designated size [2]. - The high - end trend of the manufacturing industry continued. In July, the year - on - year growth rates of the added value of the high - tech manufacturing industry and the digital product manufacturing industry above the designated size were 9.3% and 8.4% respectively, both higher than the growth rate of industrial enterprises above the designated size. The integrated circuit and electronic special material manufacturing industries grew by 26.9% and 21.7% respectively [2]. Consumption - In July, the year - on - year growth rate of the total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.7%, 1.1 percentage points slower than that in June, and the month - on - month decline was 0.14%. The year - on - year decline in total retail sales was mainly due to the suspension of national subsidies in some regions [3]. - In July, the year - on - year growth rates of catering revenue and catering revenue of units above the designated size were 1.1% and - 0.3% respectively, up 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points from June. With the cooling of subsidies on food delivery platforms, catering revenue is expected to bottom out and rebound [3]. Investment - From January to July, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed asset investment was 1.6%, 1.2 percentage points lower than that from January to June; after excluding real estate development investment, the year - on - year growth rate of national fixed asset investment was 5.3%, 1.3 percentage points lower than that from January to June [4]. - The investment in water conservancy management and information transmission industries from January to July increased by 12.6% and 8.3% respectively. The investment in equipment and tools increased by 15.2% year - on - year, accounting for 16.2% of the total investment and driving the overall investment growth by 2.2 percentage points [4]. - From January to July, the year - on - year decline in real estate development investment was 12%, 0.8 percentage points wider than that from January to June. The sales area and sales volume of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4.0% and 6.5% respectively year - on - year, with the decline rates 0.5 and 1.0 percentage points wider than those from January to June, both at the lowest growth rates of the year. The real estate investment is searching for the bottom. The national real estate climate index further declined to 93.34, still in a low - level climate range [4]. Market - After the economic data were released at 10:00, the yields fluctuated downward under the push of the fundamentals and the support of funds. However, after the mid - day break, affected by the strong performance of the stock market, the yields fluctuated upward again [5]. Bond Market Viewpoints - Under the revision of economic expectations, bond yields are expected to rise trendingly. For the allocation between stocks and bonds, the report maintains the view that in the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly; structural issues such as prices are trending towards improvement; the allocation between stocks and bonds will continue to shift, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise continuously [6].

Core Viewpoint - The economic performance in July showed resilience despite external uncertainties and domestic challenges, with various sectors demonstrating stable growth and new momentum emerging in the economy [1][2][3]. Economic Performance - In July, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.7% year-on-year, with the equipment manufacturing sector growing by 8.4%, indicating robust industrial performance [2]. - The service production index also saw a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, reflecting a stable service sector [2]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods rose by 3.7% year-on-year, with retail sales of goods increasing by 4% [2]. - The total import and export volume grew by 6.7% year-on-year, showing resilience in foreign trade [2]. Employment and Prices - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.2%, indicating a steady employment situation [2]. - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI), excluding food and energy, has shown a positive trend with an expanding growth rate for three consecutive months [2]. New Growth Drivers - High-tech manufacturing industries are performing well, with a year-on-year increase of 9.3% in added value for large-scale high-tech manufacturing [2]. - The integrated circuit manufacturing sector saw a significant increase of 26.9% in added value, while the production of new energy vehicles grew by 17.1% [2]. - Online retail sales of physical goods increased by 6.3% year-on-year in the first seven months, indicating a strong growth in e-commerce [2]. Future Economic Outlook - The economic recovery is supported by expanding market demand, the positive development of new productive forces, and ongoing reforms [3]. - The International Monetary Fund has raised its forecast for China's economic growth by 0.8 percentage points, reflecting increased confidence from the international community [3]. - The implementation of more proactive macro policies is expected to support consumption and stabilize the economy [3][5].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that under the strong leadership of the central government, China's economy has shown resilience and vitality, achieving a GDP growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, positioning it as a leader among major economies [2][4]. Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, maintaining a leading position among major economies [2]. - The retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.0% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in domestic consumption [5]. - Exports rose by 7.2% year-on-year, with high-end equipment exports growing by over 20% [5]. Policy Measures - The government has implemented more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to stabilize the economy [4]. - Policies such as consumption incentives and infrastructure investment have been introduced to stimulate effective demand [5]. Technological Innovation - The manufacturing sector has seen significant growth, with the added value of equipment manufacturing increasing by 10.2% and high-tech manufacturing by 9.5% [8]. - R&D expenditure accounted for nearly 2.7% of GDP, surpassing the EU average [5]. Domestic Market Dynamics - The domestic market is characterized by its vast scale and potential, with consumption in lower-tier cities showing significant growth [12]. - The contribution of domestic demand to GDP growth was 68.8%, highlighting the importance of the domestic market [18]. Trade and External Relations - China's foreign trade has remained robust, with imports and exports exceeding 10 trillion yuan for nine consecutive quarters [14]. - Trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative accounted for 51.8% of total trade, diversifying market risks [14]. Corporate Environment - The number of business entities in China exceeded 1.91 million, with a notable increase in new business registrations [23]. - Enterprises are increasingly focusing on innovation and adapting to market demands, with a rise in exports from private and foreign enterprises [25]. Social Welfare and Economic Growth - The government has prioritized social welfare, with significant increases in spending on social security, education, and healthcare [29]. - The per capita disposable income of residents grew by 5.4% year-on-year, contributing to improved consumer confidence and spending [30].

Economic Overview - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that despite facing risks and challenges, China's economy is showing steady progress with supportive macro policies and expanding market demand [3][12]. New Productive Forces - In July, the added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 9.3% year-on-year, outpacing the overall industrial growth by 3.6 percentage points [4]. - The digital economy is rapidly developing, with the added value of digital product manufacturing increasing by 8.4% year-on-year in July [4]. - Production of green low-carbon products is also on the rise, with new energy vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and wind turbine generators seeing year-on-year growth of 17.1%, 29.4%, and 19.3%, respectively [4]. Foreign Trade - In July, the total value of goods imports and exports increased by 6.7% year-on-year, with exports growing by 8% and imports by 4.8% [5]. - The diversification of trade partners is evident, with exports to ASEAN, the EU, and Belt and Road countries increasing by 14.8%, 8.2%, and 11.7%, respectively [5]. - The export of integrated circuits saw significant growth of 21.8%, indicating enhanced international competitiveness [5]. Consumption - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, with service retail sales growing by 5.2% in the first seven months [6]. - The sales of home appliances, furniture, and communication equipment saw substantial growth, with increases of 28.7%, 20.6%, and 14.9%, respectively [7]. - The tourism and leisure sectors experienced rapid growth, with retail sales in related services maintaining double-digit growth [7]. Investment - Fixed asset investment grew by 1.6% year-on-year in the first seven months, with actual growth (adjusted for price factors) estimated between 4% and 5% [8][9]. - Manufacturing investment increased by 6.2%, significantly outpacing overall investment growth [9]. - Investment in high-tech industries, such as aerospace and information services, saw substantial increases of 33.9% and 32.8%, respectively [9]. Price Trends - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed positive changes, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [10]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, indicating a strengthening market demand [10]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month decline of 0.2%, but the rate of decline has narrowed, marking the first reduction in the rate since March [10].

Economic Performance Overview - In July, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.7% year-on-year, indicating stable growth in production supply [1][2] - The total retail sales of consumer goods rose by 3.7% year-on-year, reflecting a steady increase in consumption [1][2] - The total import and export of goods grew by 6.7% year-on-year, showing resilience in foreign trade [1][2] Development of New Growth Drivers - High-tech manufacturing saw a significant increase, with added value rising by 9.3% year-on-year, outpacing overall industrial growth [3] - The modern service industry also experienced rapid growth, with information transmission and software services increasing by 11.9% [3] - The integrated circuit manufacturing sector grew by 26.9% year-on-year, and the production of new energy vehicles increased by 17.1% [3] Consumer Market Dynamics - The combined retail of goods and services is estimated to have grown by around 5% year-on-year from January to July, indicating a stable upward trend in consumption [4] - The "old for new" consumption policy has positively impacted sales, with significant year-on-year growth in categories such as home appliances (28.7%) and furniture (20.6%) [4] - Service retail related to cultural and recreational activities has also seen robust growth, driven by increased travel and leisure spending [4] Economic Stability and Future Outlook - Despite fluctuations in some economic indicators, the overall growth rate of key indicators remains stable, with employment and prices steady [7] - The macroeconomic policies implemented have effectively supported production demand and economic stability [7] - The International Monetary Fund has raised its forecast for China's economic growth by 0.8 percentage points, reflecting increased confidence in China's economic development [8]